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<ul class="summary-list"><li>A potential US recession won't be as severe as many fear, a <keyword id="12360873" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="pimco" source="Orion">Pimco</keyword> strategist told Bloomberg TV.</li></ul> <ul class="summary-list"><li>Anthony Crescenzi said Friday that while a recession looms, it's likely to resemble a 'light rain.'</li></ul>A looming US recession may not be as severe as Wall Street fears, according to Anthony Crescenzi, executive vice president, market strategist, and generalist portfolio manager at Pimco.Last month, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon used a weather analogy when he warned that <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jamie-dimon-economic-hurricane-warning-requires-preparation-jpmorgan-balance-sheet-2022-6">an economic hurricane is on the horizon</a>, adding that the potential for an imminent recession requires preparation by banks.But <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2022-07-15/us-recession-to-be-light-rain-not-a-hurricane-pimco-s-crescenzi">on Bloomberg TV</a> Friday, Crescenzi said, "This idea of a hurricane, for example, is probably the wrong idea. Probably the right idea is a light rain."To be sure, that light rain will likely be steady as there is little chance for more monetary and fiscal stimulus to rev up growth, he added. But overall, the macroeconomic picture looks "pretty stable," and as investors gauge the risk of a recession, "It's seeming like it's likely to be mild," he said. The comments come as recession calls have tightened their grip on <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword>. The latest US <keyword id="11894140" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> reading, which showed consumer prices soared 9.1%, has prompted <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/recession-risk-economy-markets-pricing-100-risk-us-recession-deutsche-2022-7">markets to price in a 100% risk of a recession</a> hitting the economy before the end of the year, according to George Saravelos, global head of currency research at Deutsche Bank.Crescenzi added that there's significant upside once a recession passes, pointing to strong household savings and low unemployment. "Money will flow to entrepreneurs, innovators, inventors and credit worthy borrowers in a time of stress, so there's lots of reason to think we can come out of this pretty good," he said.

A potential US recession will be mild and more in line with 'light rain' as opposed to a hurricane, says Pimco strategist

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Dow Jones climbed over 700 basis points on Tuesday.</li><li>Small-caps saw a steeper increase as rate-cut bets helped drive a rotation into other parts of the market. </li></ul>US equities soared on Tuesday as the bull market swept into broader corners of the market.While the Dow Jones jumped 1.8% to a new record high, the Russell 2000, an index focused on small-caps, notched an even steeper gain of 3.5%.The rotation into less loved corners of the equity market highlights a rising appetite for stocks that investors think are set to outperform once the Federal Reseve starts cutting interest rates. Small-caps are often more debt-burdened companies, and the sector has struggled amid higher interest rates.But with the market growing more confident in the possibility of a rate cut in September, risk-on appetite is surging.The Russell 2000's performance isn't a one-off feat either: the four past sessions have witnessed the Russell surpass the Nasdaq by close to 11 percentage points. That hasn't happened in 13 years.Wall Street has grown convinced that the Fed will ease rates this fall, after June delivered a softer-than-expected inflation report.On Tuesday, June's retail sales came in strong, lowering concern of an imminent consumer pullback. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.4% against estimates of a 0.1% increase"The economy is in pretty good shape," Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams said.He added: There are signs of softness around the edges where low and moderate income consumers are pulling back, like the weakness of food service and drinking place spending in the first half of this year. But openhanded spending by affluent consumers is keeping the economy as a whole moving forward."At the same time, the second quarter's earnings season is helping maintain market momentum. On Tuesday, estimate-beating reports helped Bank of America and Caterpillar, the industrial equipment firm, gain upside.Here's where US indexes stood at he 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,667.20, up 0.64% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,954.48, up 1.85% (+742.76 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,509.34, up 0.2%</li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/small-caps-russell-2000-rally-outlook-sp500-selloff-fundstrat-tech-2024-7">This small-cap index will rally 40% as S&amp;P 500 starts to lag</a>, Fundstrat's Tom Lee said.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-rally-broadens-small-caps-another-win-for-bulls-2024-7">One of the stock market's biggest worries is vanishing</a> as the rally broadens out.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/spot-ether-etf-bitcoin-ethereum-token-cryptocurrency-crypto-bull-run-2024-7">The upcoming launch of spot ether ETFs will boost the token above bitcoin</a>, research firm says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bond-warning-signal-flashes-1999-first-time-2024-7">A bond market recession signal is flashing red for the first time since 1999.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-costs-mortgage-rates-prices-insurance-swing-states-election-november-2024-7">Swing state housing costs have doubled since the last election</a>, Redfin reports.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil grew 0.42% to $80.83 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, dropped 1.23% to $83.83 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> climbed 1.82% to $2,466.5 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield fell six basis points to 4.164%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> stayed essentially flat at $64,799.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Dow surges 742 points and small caps rally as investors bet big on Fed rate cuts

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Global shares seesawed on Thursday after minutes from the Federal Reseve's meeting confirmed big rate hikes are coming.</li><li>The Russian central bank slashed interest rates to 11% to try to curb the ruble's strength against the dollar.</li></ul>Global <keyword id="11893878" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="stocks" source="Orion">stocks</keyword> flatlined on Thursday, showing some stability after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting confirmed the market's view that bigger rate rises are coming in order to cool down inflationary pressures. Futures on the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/s&amp;p-500-futures?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/dow-futures?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones</a> eased in volatile trade, dipping 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, while those on the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100</a> fell by 0.5%. US stocks closed higher Wednesday after the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/us-stocks-climb-in-volatile-session-as-fed-minutes-signal-fast-pace-of-rate-hikes-followed-by-a-pause/articleshow/91798451.cms">minutes</a> showed the central bank will stick to aggressive interest rate hikes in the near term and then gauge the economy's response. The <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20220504.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Federal Open Market Committee's minutes</a> showed US policy makers unanimously agreed they should "expeditiously move the stance of monetary policy toward a neutral posture," to get a handle on inflation. It has already signaled rate hikes of 50 basis points in June and July. "<keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">Markets</keyword> have already become comfortable with the idea of further 50bps rate rises in June and July, with more rate rises to come, along with discussions about the prospect of moving rates beyond neutral to help constrain above-target inflation. None of this is new, but it's also not particularly instructive given that not one FOMC member has the same measure of where the neutral rate actually is," Michael Hewson, chief strategist at CMC Markets, said. Stocks have been in retreat for most of this year, as fears over the impact of inflation on the economy have prompted investors to seek safer havens for their cash. Consumer names, such as Target and Walmart have painted a grim picture of the economic outlook in their quarterly earnings.But not all retailers have been downbeat. On Wednesday, luxury apparel retailer Nordstrom raised its outlook and reported upbeat results, pushing its shares up 14%Meanwhile, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-central-bank-cuts-interest-rates-ruble-currency-sanctions-ukraine-2022-5">Russia slashed interest rates</a> on Thursday, from 11% to 14%, in an attempt to rein in the ruble, as its strength only stands to worsen the sanctions-hit economy even more. The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">dollar</a> was steady around one-month lows, while yields on the 10-year benchmark Treasury note eased 2 basis points to 2.722%, after Fed policy makers stressed there may be a degree of flexibility to the tightening of its monetary policy. On the energy markets, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/natural-gas-price">US natural gas futures</a> dipped on Thursday, after having surged above $9 per million British thermal units earlier in the day, their highest since 2008, as shrinking inventories squeezed prices. In addition to gasoline prices soaring, this is adding to inflationary pressures rippling across the US. The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/msci-world?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">MSCI All-World index</a> was up 0.1%, building on the gains of the previous days, while in Asia, Chinese stocks shrugged off weakness across regional equities and rose modestly, after Chinese Premier Li Kequiang said the slowing in the country's economy was worse in some ways than when the pandemic struck in 2020, raising the prospect of further stimulus. The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/csi-300">CSI 300</a> rose 0.3%, while the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/shanghai_composite">Shanghai Composite</a> gained 0.5%. Tokyo's <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nikkei_225">Nikkei 225</a> and the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/hang_seng">Hang Seng</a> fell 0.27 and 0.27%, respectively. Read more:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-stocks-to-buy-bear-market-wall-street-beaten-down-shares-2022-5">A stock-picking expert shares 7 fallen-star names forecast to rocket by up to 135% when bullishness returns to Wall Street</a>

Global shares seesaw after Fed minutes offer no surprises on rates, while natural gas at 2008 highs fans inflation fears

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image">Getty Images</div></div></div>The latest manufacturing report from the Philadelphia Federal Reseve is expected at the top of the hour.
Economists are looking for a reading of 16.0, below <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/philly-fed-manufacturing-june-2014-2014-6">last month's 17.8 reading</a>. 
The June report also showed that the prices paid index rose 12 points, and after yesterday's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/june-producer-price-index-july-15-2014-7">producer price index report</a> topped expectations, that number will be closely watched.
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/philly-fed-manufacturing-july-17-2014-7">We'll be back with the live numbers when they hit</a>.

You Searched For "federal reseve" and got 4 results

A potential US recession will be mild and more in line with 'light rain' as opposed to a hurricane, says Pimco strategist

Brian Evans

Stock market today: Dow surges 742 points and small caps rally as investors bet big on Fed rate cuts

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Global shares seesaw after Fed minutes offer no surprises on rates, while natural gas at 2008 highs fans inflation fears

Zahra Tayeb

Here Comes Philly Fed...

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