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The opposition parties are protesting against <keyword id="3315394" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="demonetisation">demonetisation</keyword>, demanding Prime Minister <keyword id="6354477" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi">Narendra Modi</keyword>’s to roll it back. 
 
Several political parties called for a nationwide shutdown, however, few of them such as Congress and TMC have refrained from it, saying it will lead to losses. 
 
But, opposition blocked railway tracks in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, upping their ante against scrapping of old notes. 
 
Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi also protested outside parliament. “This deadlock can only end when the PM comes for discussion in the house,” said Mallikarjun Kharge of the Congress in the Lok Sabha. 
 
The Congress clarified it was not seeking for a rollback but sought remedies to help rural India, especially farmers. However, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has called for rollback of demonetisation.

Opposition parties launch nationwide protest against demonetisation; take to streets

The <keyword id="6354477" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi">Narendra Modi</keyword> administration appears to be making India's farmers a key plank in the upcoming budget, just ahead of the country’s general elections. According to reports, it plans to give the country’s farmers cash handouts in the form of direct transfers as opposed to subsidies. It's a bold move that follows months of farmer protests and an agrarian crisis in the country. It is expected to benefit an estimated 146 million farmers, according to a report from <keyword id="6354731" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="state-bank-of-india">State Bank of India</keyword> (SBI). The estimate follows media reports that the government has also decided against another series of loan waivers in its upcoming interim budget. Instead, the government may opt to provide income support and interest-free loans to the farmers. Why cash transfer? On surface, the cash transfer scheme makes fiscal sense as it would help plug leakages in the transmission of subsidies. But there are a number of questions, not least of which is how feasible the scheme will be. How much does the government currently spend on subsidies and support for farmers? The government currently subsidised <keyword id="495738" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="crop-insurance">crop insurance</keyword>, interest on farm loans and fertilisers. As per a report published by the State Bank of India, the central government’s most recent budgetary allocation to subsidy and farmer support schemes totalled around ₹981 billion - which is roughly 2.9% of India’s GDP. With an estimated 146 million farmers who benefit from these subsidies, the cost per farmer comes to anywhere between ₹5,335 and ₹10,162 annually. The lower figure going to someone who avails of one scheme and the higher figure going to someone who benefits from all three - crop insurance, interest subsidies and fertiliser subsidy. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
	
 
 
	
 
	
 <div type="image" title="Table" msid="67657044" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Estimated government subsidies to farmers&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>























 That figure assumes that out of a total of 146 million farmers (as per Agriculture Census 2015-16), only 35% avail of crop insurance, 45% have bank accounts to avail of interest subsidies and 90% of all farmers receive fertiliser subsidies in some form or the other. Will all farmers get cash transfers? No. Landless farmers, who till someone else’s land, will be left out of the scheme. And that’s a high number in India. 56% of India’s rural households do not own any land, according to the last socio-economic caste census. Many states like Jharkhand, Bihar, Gujarat, Kerala &amp; Tamil Nadu are yet to fully digitise land records. This will make it tougher to ensure that cash transfers reach all intended beneficiaries. SBI’s report estimates that the government may be able to reach up to 100 million farmers. How much farmers get via direct cash transfer, if approved? If the cash transfers reach 100 million farmers, the budgetary allocation will have to be around ₹1- ₹1.2 trillion. That works out to an average individual payment ₹10,000- ₹12,000 per farmer. At this cost, there will be no additional financial burden on the government. What is the flip side? Even assuming that the cash transfers reach a 100 million farmers, as per the SBI estimate, it leaves out at least one third of the beneficiaries who were availing one kind of subsidy or the other. This is likely to backfire unless the government is able to fine tune the system and make it efficient and more inclusive sooner than later.

Explained: The cost of giving India's farmers cash instead of subsidies

Rahul Gandhi’s return to the prominence yesterday has triggered innumerable curious questions related to Rahul’s past few days and <keyword id="1575" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Congress">Congress</keyword>’ future. It seems Sonia Gandhi was waiting for this day and has signalled a comeback plan. 
 
As per a news report by The Economic Times, Congress game plan involves focussing the party as one that will fight for farmers and paint BJP as a ruling party that shows little concern about India's largest occupational group. The <keyword id="87979" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="Land-Bill">land Bill</keyword> agitation rally announced earlier and to be held at Delhi's Ramlila Maidan this Sunday, April 19, will be turned into a launch pad for "a big event to boost cadre morale and recapture the space of the principal opposition party", a top Congress leader told the ET. 
 
 
"The drift in the Congress disappeared with Rahul Gandhi's disappearance. Hope it doesn't reappear now that he is back," a former Union minister said. Rahul will be briefed on the Congress plan on Friday by Digvijaya Singh, another Congress leader told the financial daily. 
 Sonia has also sent down the message that some Congress heavyweights, who have traditionally been faction fighters, must bury all differences and work together. One party leader said <keyword id="49103" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Ashok-Gehlot">Ashok Gehlot</keyword> has been asked to work with Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan. Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh, Digvijaya Singh, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Kamal Nath have been asked to cooperate. As have been BS Hooda and Ashok Tanwar in Haryana. 
 
Congress chiefs of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh have been asked to bring in crowds. The chief ministers of all the nine Congress-ruled states would also be present as would be Congress leaders. 
 
A group of senior leaders led by AK Antony and Digvijaya Singh, Mukul Wasnik, BS Hooda and Ashok Gehlot have been given key responsibilities. "A quota has been allotted to each state. The idea is to get as many of our people from different parts so that the message is evenly spread," the leader quoted earlier told the ET. 
 The party also felt that merely focussing on the land Bill would limit its appeal to only land-owning farmers. But revival of farmer suicide, especially in battleground states of Uttar Pradesh and <keyword id="30033" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Bihar">Bihar</keyword>, and crop losses are resulting in growing resentment in rural India. 
 
(Image: Reuters) 
 
Congress hopes it could be a beneficiary of this resentment. The party would focus on those affected worst -- sugarcane, cotton, paddy, wheat, and potato farmers. "The idea is to show that BJP's government is inherently antifarmer," a top leader involved in the planning said. The party hopes the "anti-farmer" tag will stick to BJP and would take off from its protests on the land Bill.

The Return of Rahul: Congress suddenly reminded of its opposition status

<ul><li>The <keyword id="6355075" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="iaf" source="Orion">IAF</keyword> recruitment drive under the Agnipath scheme received a tremendous response with 7.5 lakh applications from army aspirants.</li><li>The online application window for the recruitment under this scheme is closed now.</li><li>However, many army aspirants want the defence ministry to extend the application deadline.</li></ul>The army recruitment Agnipath scheme, which had drawn a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/agnipath-scheme-protest-section-144-imposed-in-gurgugram-kota-jaipur-faridabad-and-ayodhya/articleshow/92329214.cms">nation-wide protest</a> across the country, received more applications this year than it did in the last recruitment drive, said Indian Air Force (IAF). This year, it received 7,49,899 applications, as compared to 6,31,528 received in the last drive, IAF said in a tweet. <div type="twitter" handle="IAF_MCC" handlename="Indian Air Force" image="http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/798477907316207617/dMQAtlFj_normal.jpg" favoritecount="4230" retweetcount="797" status="The online registration process conducted by #IAF towards #AgnipathRecruitmentScheme has been completed.Compared… https://t.co/My3hY520S2" createdat="1657034683000" id="1544341510757396482"></div> IAF also said that the online application window for the scheme is finally closed, and has received a tremendous response from aspirants. The recruitment process in the Indian Air Force under the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/defense/news/state-police-jobs-bridge-crash-courses-and-skills-certificates-to-aid-careers-of-agniveers/articleshow/92245184.cms">Agnipath scheme</a> closed on July 5. Army aspirants are also asking IAF and the defence ministry to extend the application deadline. It is to be noted that the various districts in Rajasthan including Udaipur were under internet shutdown for at least 4-5 days due to murder of a Hindu tailor in Udaipur. <div type="twitter" handle="Singh1999I" handlename="Mool SinGh Marwar" image="http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1354106016867045381/IjP6LzDX_normal.jpg" favoritecount="6" retweetcount="1" status="@IAF_MCC @PMOIndia @mygovindia @DefenceMinIndia @SpokespersonMoD @adgpi @IndiannavyMedia @PBNS_India @MIB_India… https://t.co/NpSgDovfMa" createdat="1657041824000" id="1544371462278381568"></div> A lot of former employees and aspirants alike had been up in arms against the scheme which restricts their <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/agniveer-why-are-thousands-of-youth-up-in-arms-against-the-agnipath-scheme/articleshow/92284069.cms">employment in the forces to four years</a> – without pension and job security. Protests against this scheme raged across the country especially in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Telangana. Apart from army aspirants, the protests received support from farmer organizations, civil society organizations and trade unions. However, they died after a week, as applications were invited by the forces. In fact, it had received more than 90,000 applications in just four days of the opening of the online application window. The IAF will recruit 3,000 Agniveers this year and their training is slated to begin from December 30, after exams and medical tests which will be held in two phases. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/telangana-govt-to-conduct-public-meetings-with-revenue-officials-to-resolve-land-issues/articleshow/92690641.cms">Telangana govt to conduct public meetings with revenue officials to resolve land issues</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/personal-finance/news/one-in-two-indians-face-extortion-and-data-misuse-thanks-to-instant-loan-apps/articleshow/92690255.cms">One in two Indians face extortion and data misuse thanks to instant loan apps</a>

IAF gets 7.5 lakh applications for 3,000 Agniveer positions and requests to extend deadline

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Mass gatherings such as the farmers' protests didn't become the superspreader events experts feared.</li><li>COVID cases have steadily fallen, raising hopes the country is close to achieving herd immunity.</li><li>One expert says misinformation may have been an "accidental game changer" at encouraging mingling.</li></ul>When Indian farmers began gathering to protest in November 2020, at the height of the <keyword id="1754604" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="coronavirus">coronavirus</keyword> pandemic, <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/superspreader-protest-as-experts-worry-about-covid-farmers-say-new-laws-bigger-threat-to-their-survival/articleshow/79492667.cms">experts predicted these would be superspreader events</a>.Three months later, tens of thousands are still gathered in tents on the outskirts of Delhi with more still arriving in tractors for speeches and impromptu marches. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-54657433">Big election rallies took place in October</a> in the state of Bihar. Hundreds of thousands of pilgrims flocked to the annual religious gathering of Kumbh Mela in January, <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1692725">mostly without masks.</a>But not only have these not led to spikes in COVID cases, such cases have plummeted.This densely-populated country of nearly 1.4 billion people, whose median age is only 28, recorded just <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/india?country=~IND">11,583 cases on February 10, down from a high of nearly 100,000 a day in September</a>.<div type="image" title="India's daily cases" height="2400" width="3400" msid="80927635" hostid="261"></div><keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="India">India</keyword> began a full lockdown in March when cases were relatively low, then <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1692725">gradually emerged in stages from June</a>. Cases began to fall long before the country embarked in January on a vaccination programme that has so far inoculated nearly 8 million people."None of the horrors, that were imagined, happened during these gatherings," Dr Rajib Dasgupta, chair of the Centre of Social Medicine &amp; Community Health at Jawaharlal Nehru University, tells Insider.As India's case numbers continue to decline, experts hope that the world's second biggest country is approaching herd immunity, the "indirect protection" from infections "when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed through previous infection," according to the World Health Organization.<div type="image" title="GettyImages 1231155229" height="3608" width="5128" msid="80927638" hostid="261"></div>Dasgupta says mass gatherings may have accelerated this among a population that is less vulnerable to COVID, due to a relatively young population.Misinformation about the danger of COVID may have emboldened people to gather together, he adds, saying it "might well have been an accidental game changer."The myths, often circulated through WhatsApp and social media, included that <keyword id="8763838" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="covid-19">COVID-19</keyword> was no worse than seasonal flu and that traditional herbal concoctions or spices such as turmeric or gooseberries can safeguard against it.Boom, an independent website that fights misinformation, <a href="https://www.boomlive.in/fact-file/fake-news-in-the-time-of-coronavirus-a-boom-study-8008">published 178 fact checks of false claims circulating about COVID</a> in the first five months in 2020.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/majority-of-coronavirus-cases-asymptomatic-study-2021-2">As little as 13% of people who get the coronavirus develop symptoms, a new study suggests</a><div type="image" title="Bihar election rally India October 2020" height="1185" width="2100" msid="80927643" hostid="261"></div>Monish Sengupta, who divides his time between Calcutta and the UK, tells Insider, a doctor friend "recommended consuming some homeopathic medicine and camphor with hot milk."At a tea shop in Calcutta in mid-February, Insider encountered a group of young men sipping tea and loudly arguing whether herd immunity meant they might skip taking the <keyword id="24209" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="vaccine">vaccine</keyword>. "Where's the coronavirus? It's gone," one of them said. On February 5, a flight between New Delhi and Calcutta was packed. Both airports were crowded.But despite the warnings about mass gatherings, one volunteer reports seeing no one with COVID symptoms at a camp set up by doctors and volunteers at the site of the farming protests.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-worried-getting-coronavirus-trump-white-house-superspreader-2021-2">Fauci said he worried about getting COVID-19 while working in the 'superspreader' Trump White House</a>Indranil Mukhopadhyay, co-convener of the Delhi chapter of health movement Jan Swasthya Abhiyaan, says there is a noticeable lack of distancing and mask wearing at the protestors as well as a reluctance to getting tested for the virus.The professor, who teaches at New Delhi's Jindal School of Government and Public Policy, tells Insider the camp is "fertile ground" for the virus. But he adds the group's medical camp has so far not come across anyone displaying COVID symptoms, despite attending to more than 15,000 patients.A <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408">working paper</a> by the US National Bureau of Economic Research, that used data from last year's Black Lives Matter protests, provides a potential insight into why this was the case.It concluded that people who were least likely to contract the virus, were most likely to attend the protests in America, while those who were high-risk stayed away.<div type="image" title="Hindu devotees take a holy dip in the waters of the River Ganges" height="3000" width="4501" msid="80927646" hostid="261"></div>The BLM protests also prompted those who didn't participate in demonstrations to follow safety protocols more diligently because the protests raised the risk they perceived, the paper noted. The paper's lead author, economics Professor Dave Dhaval, tells Insider "some of the above factors may be in play" in the farmers' protest.Dr Satyabrata Routray, director of immunization at the India chapter of Path, a global nonprofit health organization, says misinformation played its part, but poverty was crucial in forcing people out of their homes.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19-vaccine-does-not-affect-fertility-doctors-reassure-public-2021-2">Doctors are speaking out to dispel the 'groundless' myth that the COVID-19 vaccine affects fertility in women or men</a>More than <a href="https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/---ifp_skills/documents/publication/wcms_734503.pdf">90 percent of India's workforce</a> is in the informal sector - lacking social insurance and often earning a low daily wage. India also has around <a href="https://www.indiaspend.com/1-77mn-indians-are-homeless-40-of-them-are-getting-no-lockdown-relief/">1.77 million homeless people</a>, who have no homes to lock themselves into."People needed to get out of their homes and get on with the business of earning their daily bread. A large majority of the Indian population are poor and depend on daily wages," Routray tells Insider."Any intermixing of infected population with the rest of the population would hasten herd immunity. And looking at the numbers I would say we are very close to herd immunity."Dasgupta says people are asking "if the situation is real" - whether India genuinely is approaching herd immunity. "I would say it is reasonably real. <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/1-out-of-4-in-t-has-had-covid-reveals-nins-3rd-sero-survey/articleshow/80777381.cms">The sero surveys</a> have thrown up evidence of pretty high levels of exposure to infection," he adds, referring to blood testing to estimate the extent of exposure.The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR)'s latest sero survey showed 21.5% of Indians have been <a href="https://twitter.com/COVIDNewsByMIB/status/1357284699702390786?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1357284699702390786%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Fworld-asia-india-559453825382">exposed to the virus</a>. While a sero survey in Delhi - <a href="https://www.mygov.in/covid-19">which has so far recorded 636,000 cases and 10,886 deaths</a> - showed more than 56% of people there had <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/delhis-5th-sero-survey-over-56-people-have-antibodies-against-covid19-101612264534349.html">developed antibodies against the virus</a>. Calcutta -- which has more than 14 million in its wider metropolitan region - has so far recorded 571,000 cases and 10,220 deaths. Last June, much earlier in the pandemic, the ICMR had said <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/kolkata-people-covid19-antibodies-icmr-sero-survey-1694917-2020-06-28">14% </a>of people in Calcutta had developed antibodies, while a private laboratory in September put the figure at <a href="https://www.thestatesman.com/cities/kolkata/kolkata-one-four-people-covid-antibodies-1502922912.html">50%.</a>Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/doctor-nhs-covid-safety-social-distancing-hospital-protocol-lockdown-2021-2">I'm a NHS doctor and I've seen firsthand how devastating COVID is. Everyone needs have give up some freedoms to make it through the final stretch of the pandemic.</a>Dasgupta adds the coronavirus is not a new virus in the region. India was hit by the 2002-3 outbreak of SARS, which is <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/sars-2002-03-india-coronavirus-outbreak-1683404-2020-05-29">a variant of the coronavirus</a>. The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) hit in 2015. Studies have also detected the presence of <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12098-018-2840-8">Human Coronavirus 229E</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12098-018-2840-8">Human Coronavirus HKU1</a> among Indian children."COVID-19 is a new disease but the coronavirus is a very common virus in Asia and South Asia which means the pool of susceptible people was not as large as it was initially assumed," Dasgupta adds.Dasgupta agrees India is nearly at herd immunity, adding: "It's unlikely that there will be another huge wave." But he warns that there may yet be surges in rural areas, which so far have been less affected than cites."The game changer at this point would be to get more and more people vaccinated against the virus," he adds. "To convince and communicate to the people constantly that the threat is still alive."

Experts feared India's farming protests would be COVID superspreader events. Poverty, misinformation and a younger population may explain why cases plummeted instead.

<ul class="generic-article__summary--ul content--ul"><li class="generic-article__summary--li content--li">The BJP’s Narendra Modi swept to power on a wave of optimism and a catchy slogan.</li><li class="generic-article__summary--li content--li">Five years on, an economic slowdown, agrarian distress and rising intolerance have soured the mood</li></ul> India has been holding its general elections in stages since April 11. The seventh and final phase will take place on Sunday. The primary contest is for the 543 seats in India’s lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha. This is one of the largest democratic exercises in the world, with 900 million voters deciding on a new central government for the 1.3 billion-strong South Asian giant. The results are expected on Thursday. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shows his ink-marked finger after casting his vote. Photo: AFP WHAT IS AT STAKE? Prime Minister <a href="https://www.scmp.com/topics/narendra-modi" class="link-text">Narendra Modi</a> of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is running for a second term.A former chief minister of Gujarat, he came to power in 2014 with the simple but powerful slogan “ache din aayega” (good days will come). This resonated with voters – especially in the impoverished northern regions – who were angry at the previous administration of the Congress party that had been dogged by scandal. <h3 style="margin-bottom: 2.35714rem; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 300; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 1.71429rem; line-height: 2.42857rem; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; display: inherit;"><a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3010707/india-elections-bjp-may-need-allies-narendra-modi-drove-away" class="link-text">BJP may need the allies Modi drove away </a></h3>As a result, Modi swept to power: the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance coalition won 336 of the Lok Sabha’s 543 seats. The BJP itself won 282 seats – the first time since 1989 that one of India’s political parties had won an outright majority. The other main national political party is Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi, grandson of former prime minister Indira Gandhi. This grand old party of India has been progressively weakening across the country and now stands as only one of the many opposition parties, jockeying for power against resurgent regional players. In 2014, Congress did not even win enough seats to be chosen as the official opposition and was almost eclipsed by the AIADMK, a regional party from Tamil Nadu. SO MODI’S A SHOO-IN? Not exactly. Modi’s re-election prospects have arguably been dimmed by the triple threat of an economic slowdown, agrarian distress and concerns about rising intolerance and violence against minorities. His promise in 2014 to create 10 million new jobs a year for India’s burgeoning youth population has not been fulfilled. Moreover, a recent study by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy argued that 11 million jobs were lost last year alone. Indian farmers protest in New Delhi in November – their plight has become a major electoral issue. Photo: AP A leaked government survey allegedly showed the unemployment rate to be higher than at any time in the past 45 years. These economic doldrums have largely been blamed on the new Goods and Services Tax imposed by the government and 2016’s botched demonetisation exercise, which took 86.5 per cent of India’s currency out of circulation. The plight of India’s farmers has also become a major electoral issue. Stagnant grain prices, erratic weather and unresolved systemic problems have led to an alarming number of farmer suicides in a country where more than 50 per cent of the population is employed in agriculture. In 2017, the central government told the Supreme Court that 12,000 farmers had committed suicide every year since 2013. The BJP’s use of Hindu nationalist rhetoric, meanwhile, has always been controversial. Its leaders, like the monk-turned-Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath, have been accused of using anti-Muslim rhetoric. BATTLEGROUND STATES The outcome of India’s elections often depends on political calculations and issues at the state level. India’s 29 states are highly diverse, both linguistically and ethnically. Five of these states – Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu – each send more than 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha, meaning that winning them is essential for either side. The biggest prize among them is Uttar Pradesh, which is one of India’s largest states and has 80 MPs. In 2014, the BJP was largely able to win nationally because it made huge gains in the massive northern state, taking 71 of the seats that were up for grabs. <h3 style="margin-bottom: 2.35714rem; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 300; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 1.71429rem; line-height: 2.42857rem; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; display: inherit;"><a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3010546/communism-india-dead-or-just-waiting-young-saviours" class="link-text">Communism in India: dead or just waiting for young saviours? </a></h3>This time, however, two major local players – the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) – are challenging the BJP. Both the SP and BSP – which have formed an alliance – are strong with the crucial Yadav and Dalit (formerly known as untouchable) castes in the state. While both the SP and BSP won more than 40 per cent of the popular vote in Uttar Pradesh in the last elections, the SP won only five seats because of India’s first-past-the-post electoral system and its lack of an alliance. This time, some pundits expect the SP-BSP alliance to win at least half of the 80 seats on offer, if not more. The BJP’s prospects are also being put to the test in the country’s economically dynamic south, where powerful regional parties are challenging its grip on power. In the states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the regional YSR Congress Party and the Telangana Rashtriya Samithi are expected to sweep the polls. Both have openly said that they prefer a third option for government that does not involve either the BJP or Congress. In India’s southernmost state and its automotive hub, Tamil Nadu, the socialist, Tamil-nationalist Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam seems to be on the cusp of major gains because of anger at both the BJP central government and its local allies, the AIADMK. The BJP is also at risk of shedding seats in the central and western states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, where Congress made gains during recent state elections. However, Modi’s party is expected to make nominal gains in eastern India, in states such as Orissa, West Bengal and the seven states that make up the country’s northeast. A major concern in those areas has been allegations of illegal migration from Bangladesh, and the BJP is running a racially charged campaign – playing up local fears of Muslim refugees – to capitalise on this. WHAT WILL ALL THIS MEAN? Assuming the BJP loses ground to regional parties, and the Congress retains its meagre base, India might find itself with a virtually hung parliament. For instance, the BJP and its National Democratic Alliance coalition might be the largest bloc in the Lok Sabha, but still fall short of a majority. <h3 style="margin-bottom: 2.35714rem; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 300; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 1.71429rem; line-height: 2.42857rem; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; display: inherit;"><a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3009682/exploiting-islamophobia-election-winning-tool-india" class="link-text">Exploiting Islamophobia: an election-winning tool in India </a></h3>Regional parties have also been displaying unprecedented acts of solidarity, such as joint rallies featuring all the leaders of large local opposition parties, encouraging the possibility of a non-Congress, non-BJP “third-front” government. So, while the results are far from certain, 2019 might well herald a return to form and the politics India knows best: the proliferation of regional power brokers and complex coalition governments.

You Searched For "farmer protests bihar" and got 6 results

Opposition parties launch nationwide protest against demonetisation; take to streets

BI India Bureau

Explained: The cost of giving India's farmers cash instead of subsidies

BI India Bureau

The Return of Rahul: Congress suddenly reminded of its opposition status

BI India Bureau

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