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The deadly landslides in Kerala's ecologically fragile Wayanad district were triggered by a heavy burst of rainfall, made 10 per cent heavier by <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword>, according to a new rapid attribution study by a global team of scientists. Researchers from India, Sweden, the US and the UK warned that such events will become more common as the climate continues to warm. To measure the impact of human-caused climate change, the scientists from the <keyword id="12008149" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Weather-Attribution" source="Orion">World Weather Attribution</keyword> (WWA) group analysed climate models with high enough resolution to accurately reflect rainfall in the relatively small study area. The models indicated that the intensity of rainfall has increased by 10 per cent due to climate change, they said. The models also predict a further four per cent increase in rainfall intensity if the average <keyword id="21951013" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-temperature" source="keywords">global temperature</keyword> rises by two degrees Celsius compared to the 1850-1900 average. The scientists, however, said there is a "high level of uncertainty" in the model results as the study area is small and mountainous with complex rainfall-climate dynamics. Having said that, the increase in heavy one-day rainfall events aligns with a growing body of scientific evidence on extreme rainfall in a warming world, including in India, and the understanding that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to heavier downpours. According to scientists, the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture increases by about 7 per cent for every one-degree Celsius rise in global temperature. The Earth's global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.3 degrees Celsius due to the rapidly rising concentration of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide and methane. Scientists say this is the reason behind worsening <keyword id="19912530" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="extreme-weather-events" source="keywords">extreme weather events</keyword>, such as droughts, heat waves and floods worldwide. The WWA scientists said that while the relationship between land cover, land use changes and landslide risk in Wayanad is not fully clear from existing studies, factors, such as quarrying for building materials and a 62 per cent reduction in forest cover may have increased the slopes' susceptibility to landslides during heavy rainfall. Other researchers have also linked the <keyword id="22597176" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Wayanad-landslides" source="keywords">Wayanad landslides</keyword> to a combination of forest cover loss, mining in fragile terrain and prolonged rain followed by heavy precipitation. S Abhilash, the director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), had earlier told PTI that the warming of the Arabian Sea is leading to the formation of deep cloud systems, resulting in extremely heavy rainfall in Kerala in a short period and increasing the risk of landslides. "Our research found that the southeast Arabian Sea is becoming warmer, causing the atmosphere above Kerala to become thermodynamically unstable. This instability is allowing the formation of deep clouds," he had said. According to the landslide atlas released by ISRO's National Remote Sensing Centre last year, 10 out of the top 30 landslide-prone districts in India are in Kerala, with Wayanad ranked at the 13th spot. A study published by Springer in 2021 said all landslide hotspots in Kerala are in the Western Ghats region and are concentrated in Idukki, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Wayanad, Kozhikode and Malappuram districts. It said about 59 per cent of total landslides in Kerala have occurred in plantation areas. A 2022 study on depleting forest cover in Wayanad showed that 62 per cent of forests in the district disappeared between 1950 and 2018, while plantation cover rose by around 1,800 per cent.

Wayanad landslides linked to 10% heavier rainfall due to climate change: Study

Nepal, which has been experiencing more frequent instances of <keyword id="20144034" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="extreme-weather" source="keywords">extreme weather</keyword> in recent times, became the victim of intense floods and <keyword id="19964849" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="landslides" source="keywords">landslides</keyword> once again over the weekend. An estimated 192 people have lost their lives, nearly 100 are injured and at least 30 individuals remain missing. Sources suggest that a low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal and the unusual positioning of the monsoon trough triggered exceptionally heavy rains across Nepal on Friday. Large swathes of eastern and central Nepal witnessed incessant downpours, resulting in overflowing of the Bagmati — Kathmandu’s main river. One of the hardest-hit areas has been the <keyword id="23370774" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Koshi-River-basin" source="keywords">Koshi River basin</keyword>, with its flooding impacting several districts like Sunsari, Saptari and Udayapur. Other rivers like <keyword id="23370775" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gandaki" source="keywords">Gandaki</keyword> and Karnali also caused widespread flooding, with damage concentrated in Banke, Bardiya and Dang districts. The low-lying Terai plains in southern Nepal also faced severe flooding due to the accumulation of rainwater from higher elevations, especially in Morang, Jhapa and Rautahat districts. Reports indicate that the floods have damaged at least 322 houses and 16 bridges across Nepal. Many claimed that they have never seen such a devastating flood and inundation in the Kathmandu Valley in 40-45 years. But flooding was hardly the only side effect of the intense rains. Hilly areas, which are aplenty in Nepal, witnessed landslides. Areas like Sindhupalchok, Dolakha, and Lamjung experienced significant landslides that blocked highways and cut off access to remote villages. In <keyword id="20996363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gorkha" source="keywords">Gorkha</keyword> and Rasuwa, landslides destroyed homes and caused fatalities, with dozens feared trapped under debris. While thousands remain stranded in various parts of Nepal due to road disruption, as many as 4,000 people affected by flood and inundation have been rescued by the <keyword id="21227724" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nepal-Army" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Nepal Army" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Nepal Army">Nepal Army</keyword>, Nepal Police and Armed Police Force personnel, Ministry of Home Affairs spokesperson Rishiram Pokharel said. Health experts are warning of the outbreak of water-borne diseases, including cholera, as sanitation facilities have been compromised in many flood-affected areas. Hospitals in Nepalgunj and other cities are already overwhelmed with injured people and mobile health units have been deployed to provide medical aid in more remote locations. Experts have pointed out that <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword> is intensifying the frequency of such extreme weather events. Nepal's fragile ecosystem, combined with poor infrastructure, makes the country highly vulnerable to floods and landslides. In the aftermath, rebuilding will require extensive resources, and long-term solutions are being discussed, such as the construction of river embankments, improving disaster preparedness, and better <keyword id="21033786" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="flood-forecasting" source="keywords">flood forecasting</keyword> systems. For now, despite the forecast for rain to continue in Nepal until Tuesday, there have been signs of some easing since Sunday. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113758450" title="Several Bihar districts on alert as IMD warns of heavy rain and flash floods" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>

Nepal floods and landslides have claimed nearly 200 lives over the weekend. What's going on there?

In a massive move for the country’s growing climate woes, India is aiming to control weather phenomena like rainfall, lightning, and hail within five years. Dubbed "<keyword id="23131560" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mission-Mausam" source="keywords">Mission Mausam</keyword>," this government-backed initiative includes the development of <keyword id="23148975" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mausam-GPT" source="keywords">Mausam GPT</keyword>, a weather AI model designed to enhance prediction accuracy and even manipulate the weather. This would make India one of the first countries to experiment with <keyword id="21369368" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="weather-modification" source="keywords">weather modification</keyword> on a significant scale. <h2>Mission Mausam</h2>India’s "Mission Mausam" aims to reshape the future of weather management by using technology to control rain. Over the next 18 months, the government will start with lab simulations to either enhance or suppress rainfall. The ultimate goal, as outlined by Earth Sciences Secretary M. Ravichandran, is to roll out full-scale weather modification within five years. He stated that the initiative could even target events like Independence Day, where “one can think about suppressing rain.” By deploying <keyword id="20644540" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cloud-seeding" source="keywords">cloud seeding</keyword> techniques alongside AI-driven weather prediction tools like "Mausam GPT," the mission seeks to significantly improve India’s ability to manage extreme weather conditions. A key aspect of the plan involves building a robust system of advanced radars, supercomputers, satellites with high-performance sensors, and GIS-based decision support systems. This cutting-edge tech is expected to boost India’s short- and medium-range weather forecasting accuracy by 5-10%, ensuring no event — such as cloudbursts — goes undetected. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113251187" title="India braces for an intensely harsh winter as La Niña takes hold" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>India is not new to weather manipulation efforts. The government has been running pilot projects, such as the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) in Maharashtra, to study cloud properties and enhance rainfall. <h2>Why is weather manipulation necessary and is it safe?</h2>Extreme weather events in India, like deadly floods, droughts, and hailstorms, have noticeably increased in frequency due to <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword>. Mission Mausam could potentially give India an edge in combating these disasters. For example, imagine preventing a flood by suppressing rain or creating artificial rain during a drought. India’s investment of Rs 2,000 crore over two years certainly reflects the seriousness of the mission, which is expected to expand further as research progresses. However, weather modification, including cloud seeding, is not without controversy. Globally, cloud seeding has had limited success, with countries like the US, Russia, and China also experimenting with these methods but facing inconsistent results. Even former MoES Secretary Madhavan Rajeevan has noted that “the technology is complex” and still in its developmental stages. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112825937" title="Shivaji Maharaj Statue collapse: Identifying 5 reasons behind the accident" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Further, the potential downsides can't be ignored. While controlling the weather could save lives, meddling with natural processes is risky. Weather manipulation might have unintended ecological consequences, like shifting rainfall patterns that could harm ecosystems and agriculture. It may also pose geopolitical risks, as neighbouring countries could accuse India of altering weather systems that affect their own climates. Ultimately, while the idea of managing the weather may seem appealing, it opens up a Pandora’s box of environmental and ethical challenges that need careful consideration.

The Indian government is taking steps to control rainfall and weather within five years — is it too risky of a move?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Severe weather degrades the accuracy of navigation systems and hampers military operations.</li><li>Climate change has made weather patterns more erratic and harder to forecast.</li></ul>More extreme weather is scrambling the high-tech systems that have given the US military its edge.For example, severe weather can degrade navigation systems such as GPS and sensors on precision-guided munitions. Heavy rain ground aircraft and drones, intense heat exhausts troops, dust storms gum up tank engines, and storms damage ships at sea. Smoke and sandstorms blind aerial drones. Commanders and troops need to have a good idea of what the weather will be like the next day or the next month — forecasts that are getting fouled by the growing unpredictability of weather patterns."Reliably forecasting extreme weather's frequency and intensity to inform strategy is perhaps the most important challenge for the US and allied militaries to adapt to or mitigate a changing climate, because it is imperative that operations and campaigns are feasible meteorologically," warned James Regens in a recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-journal/extreme-weather-risk-military-operations-changing-climate">essay</a> for the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank.Unexpected weather has always frustrated the best-laid plans of commanders. Had rain not turned the ground muddy the night before the battle, Napoleon might have been able to move up his artillery and win at <a target="_blank" href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/74/3/1520-0477_1993_074_0413_ghetws_2_0_co_2.xml">Waterloo</a>. Surprise dust storms crippled helicopters in the daring American operation to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.asomf.org/operation-eagle-claw/">rescue hostages from Iran</a> in 1980. And rain and rough seas almost caused the D-Day landings in June 1944 to be cancelled. But in military meteorology's finest hour, sharp-eyed Allied weathermen were able to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/how-weather-forecast-made-history-d-day-landings">forecast a break</a> in the storms that the Germans didn't foresee, which allowed the invasion to achieve tactical surprise.However, these mishaps reflect weather, which is a short-term phenomenon. Climate refers to long-term patterns, including the probability of severe weather. While climate change has become a highly politicized issue, there is general agreement among scientists that the Earth's climate is getting warmer.<div type="image" title="An Iraqi C-130E Hercules photographed during a 2006 sand storm." height="1500" width="2000" msid="110248465" hostid="261" sizebytes="35410"></div>This doesn't mean the weather will be hotter everywhere all the time, but it does indicate that severe weather events — heat, rain, even snow — will be more intense when they happen. One example is California in 2024, which went from years of drought to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/19/weather/california-storm-rain-flooding-tuesday/index.html">"atmospheric rivers"</a> that dumped massive amounts of rain that caused mudslides and damaged homes and roads.This can be catastrophic for farmers and people living in flood zones. But it's equally bad for militaries, especially those with advanced capabilities such as the US armed forces, which rely on delicate and interconnected systems that can be degraded by weather.For example, meteorological information is key to the position, navigation and timing (PNT) systems that enable many guided weapons and communications networks to function and coordinate. "Precision fires, aircraft flight operations, surface warship maneuver, ballistic missile trajectories and satellite launch windows to support intelligence collection and communications systems all depend on reliable PNT solutions grounded in meteorological projections," wrote Regens, an intelligence expert and founding partner of Antiphon Solutions, an Oklahoma-based analytics firm.This puts a premium on developing models and technologies that can offer accurate short- and long-term weather forecasts, and do so even as scientific understanding of the impact of global climate change evolves. The strategic implications are profound. For example, knowing the rate at which <a target="_blank" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3353265/arctic-heating-up-literally-and-as-scene-of-strategic-competition/">Arctic ice is melting</a> — creating new shipping channels and uncovering mineral riches — is of great interest to many nations.Arctic warming creates a "significant homeland defense and national security challenge for US and allied decision-making for North America and NATO's northern flank in Europe," Regens told Business Insider. "Add to this mix the humanitarian missions the US military does in response to floods, monsoons, and other weather problems, and the Pentagon and NATO need to recognize the risk extreme weather in a changing climate poses to military operations."However, Regens points to another problem: getting timely weather forecasts to those who need them. "Military forecasting works fine as long as units have secure network access to near-real time numerically predictive weather information for planning and executing missions," Regens told Business Insider.The problem is that tactical units on the front lines, or in remote areas, often lack the connectivity to receive weather reports. "NOAA [the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration], the private sector and universities are actively working to improve global weather models," Regens said. "The missing link is compressing this capability into a tactical package for warfighters.""This requires a major effort to meet the requirements of tactically disaggregated, independently operating units for immediate reliable data," said Regens. "Otherwise, they are going to have limited success firing highly lethal and expensive munitions at significant ranges." Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

Extreme weather blunts the US military's technological edge 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>With <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-not-over-storms-predictions-2024-10">hurricane season in full swing</a>, Walmart's emergency response team is working overtime.</li><li>The company's response to storms like Hurricane Milton is coordinated by meteorologist Tom Bedard.</li></ul>"Gray-sky days" start around 3:45 a.m. for Walmart's in-house meteorologist, Tom Bedard.When storms are brewing offshore, the 32-year-old Texas native told Business Insider he's up in time to read through the 4 a.m. note from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/MILTON.shtml?">National Hurricane Center</a> with the latest details — the first of four daily dispatches that are scheduled every six hours while the storm is tracked.Two weeks ago, it was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-destroyed-asheville-genz-residents-rebuild-climate-safe-haven-2024-10">Helene ripping through Appalachia</a>. This week, it's Hurricane Milton bearing down on the Gulf Coast of Florida.With more than 5,200 retail locations across the US, not to mention warehouses, trucks, and other support facilities, severe weather is a significant concern to Walmart, especially during hurricane season.Bedard arrived at Walmart just after Idalia — the only hurricane to make landfall in the US last year — following six years at AccuWeather and five years at the National Disaster Preparedness Training Center.Now, as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-evacuation-empty-gas-station-full-hotels-gridlock-traffic-2024-10">Milton gathers steam</a>, Bedard is responsible for leading a group of 10 emergency support groups that cut across all divisions of the retail giant, ranging from store operations to logistics and more.<div type="image" title="Walmart's Emergency Operations Center" height="1667" width="2500" msid="114119830" hostid="261" sizebytes="274172"></div>"We've been coordinating across all different parts of the business unit to make sure that what we're doing for the field comes down with one voice," he told BI. "We've got a responsibility, first and foremost, to make sure our associates are safe, and that if there's a facility that's in an evacuation area, that folks are taking the proper action."As of Wednesday afternoon, more than half of the company's 385 retail locations in Florida were closed in anticipation of Milton's arrival, according to the company's status <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://corporate.walmart.com/purpose/community/disaster-response/hurricane-milton">tracker</a>.While Bedard said he and other meteorologists generally avoid making specific recommendations about what other teams in the company should do, his morning briefings are stacked with a hundred people in Bentonville and several hundred more online looking for guidance about what to expect.Even CEO Doug McMillon and Walmart US CEO John Furner have attended several briefings this week and dropped in on the command center throughout the day to check on the storm's progress, a spokesperson said."Instead of having all these different business units using different sources of weather, we're able to come together and say, 'This is the person that we work with in normal conditions to ensure we're resourced for any natural disaster, and now this person's giving us the weather information when we need it most," Bedard said.<div type="image" title="Walmart's Senior Manager of Emergency Operations, Tom Bedard" height="1666" width="2500" msid="114119828" hostid="261" sizebytes="146260"></div>Under normal conditions, or "blue-sky days," Bedard spends his time meeting with people across the company and helping draft the plans that will be set in motion when a significant weather event is on the horizon."That's what they teach us in our entry-level emergency management courses is develop those relationships, so when you need them at 3 o'clock in the morning for a tornado, you've got them right there," he said.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-grocery-sales-us-compared-kroger-albertsons-2024-3">Walmart's sheer number of stores</a> and its proximity to so many American households also means the retailer plays an outsize role in communities' preparation for and response to disaster."We're still heavily involved in Hurricane Helene's recovery in the southeast and southern Appalachia," Bedard said.<div type="image" title="A convoy of Walmart trucks to Asheville, North Carolina, following Hurricane Helene" height="900" width="1600" msid="114119834" hostid="261" sizebytes="392178"></div>Walmart has so far committed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2024/10/04/walmart-sams-club-and-the-walmart-foundation-increase-commitment-to-10-million-to-hurricane-helene-relief-efforts">$10 million</a> to post-Helene efforts, a figure which includes donations of food, water, and essential supplies, as well as grants to relief organizations."When you need to make something happen, there's a Sam's Club or a supply chain facility that can be there to support it," he added. "We want to support communities. As soon as we've got our associate safety taken care of, we really take great pride in what we're able to do for communities across the nation."More than the bottomless espressos, what drives Bedard most during these storms is personal experience."Growing up in Houston in the 2000s, I got to see the Gulf Coast hurricane seasons at their worst. I was there for Katrina — being able to take in some of the Katrina refugees in Houston — and there for Rita," he said. "Being able to learn more about something that terrified me is how I found my way into weather."

Walmart's in-house meteorologist has been extremely busy

<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword> and other <keyword id="21404749" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tropical-nations" source="keywords">tropical nations</keyword> are bracing for exceptionally <keyword id="21334318" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="high-temperatures" source="keywords">high temperatures</keyword> and <keyword id="21404748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="humidity-levels" source="keywords">humidity levels</keyword>, as indicated by a recent study. This study, which analysed heat and humidity extremes spanning 45 years, warns of a 70% likelihood of unprecedented <keyword id="21052325" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="heatwaves" source="keywords">heatwaves</keyword> and humidity levels in tropical regions, including India. The concerning forecast is attributed to the interaction between <keyword id="21194763" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="El-Nio" source="keywords">El Niño</keyword> and global warming. El Niño, characterised by warmer-than-average sea temperatures in the Pacific, influences weather patterns worldwide. During these events, heat and moisture are injected into the upper atmosphere, elevating temperatures and humidity in tropical areas like India. The study suggests that the peak of these upper-level temperatures typically occurs five months after the El Niño peak. The recent occurrence of a Super El Niño in December 2023 has already impacted winter and forthcoming summer seasons, but its full effect is anticipated in the upcoming summer months. The projected rise in <keyword id="21404750" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wet-bulb-temperatures" source="keywords">wet bulb temperatures</keyword> to 26.2°C carries a 68% chance of breaking existing records. Wet bulb temperature, factoring in heat and humidity alongside evaporation's cooling effect, is crucial in gauging human discomfort and assessing heat-related risks. Tropical regions with wet bulb temperatures exceeding 30°C can pose severe health risks, particularly to vulnerable groups. Northern India, known for its humid heat stress, faces a 50% likelihood of record-breaking heat and humidity this summer. Similarly, the Sahel region in Africa also faces heightened risks, with a 35% chance of record humid heat. While natural occurrences like volcanic eruptions or shifts to cooler La Niña conditions may influence predictions, the study underscores the importance of long-term planning to mitigate the impacts of <keyword id="21404751" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="extreme-heat-events" source="keywords">extreme heat events</keyword> aggravated by <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword> and El Niño. Proactive measures such as enhancing <keyword id="21404752" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="heatwave-early-warning-systems" source="keywords">heatwave early warning systems</keyword>, upgrading infrastructure, and implementing public health initiatives are vital for bolstering resilience in the face of climate-related challenges. The findings of this research have been published in Geophysical Research Letters and can be accessed <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106990" data-type="tilCustomLink">here</a>.

New study forecasts high chance of record-breaking heat and humidity in India in the coming months

Imagine a future where your grocery bill climbs higher each year, not because of lavish spending or macroeconomic fluctuations, but because of the changing climate. Sounds far-fetched? A recent study conducted by German scientists suggests otherwise, indicating that as <keyword id="6361617" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="Orion">climate change</keyword> escalates, so will food prices and overall inflation rates. Notably, the study reveals that inflationary pressures are more pronounced in hotter areas and seasons. Consequently, regions in the Global South, including India, may face more severe economic repercussions compared to Europe and North America. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="A one-way surge in climate-induced inflation" comment="subhead" text="A one-way surge in climate-induced inflation">A one-way surge in <keyword id="21054200" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="climate-induced-inflation" source="Orion">climate-induced inflation</keyword></cmsannotation> Published in the reputed journal Nature, the study analysed monthly price fluctuations of food and various commodities, alongside temperature trends and other climate factors across 121 nations since 1996. The researchers projected that weather and climate shocks could lead to a 1.5 to 1.8 percentage point annual increase in food costs within the next decade, with even steeper hikes expected in regions like the Middle East, where temperatures are already soaring. These percentage points signify the anticipated rise in prices. By 2035, this could translate to an uptick in overall inflation rates by 0.8 to 0.9 percentage points, solely attributable to climate change and <keyword id="988973" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="extreme-weather" source="Orion">extreme weather</keyword> events. While these numbers don’t look that significant on their own, when combined with other factors affecting inflation, climate change can compound the overall impact drastically. The cascading impact of climate-induced price hikes will pose notable challenges for entities like the U.S. Federal Reserve or the Reserve Bank of India, which actively combat inflation, forcing them to consider climate change as a crucial aspect of economic policy. Looking ahead to 2060, the study predicts a further surge in climate-induced inflation, with <keyword id="489239" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-food-prices" source="Orion">global food prices</keyword> forecasted to climb by 2.2 to 4.3 percentage points annually, resulting in a corresponding 1.1 to 2.2 percentage point surge in overall inflation rates. This aptly illustrates the enduring influence that climate change is poised to exert on inflationary pressures. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="The tangible impacts of ‘climateflation’" comment="subhead" text="The tangible impacts of ‘climateflation’">The tangible impacts of ‘<keyword id="21054199" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climateflation" source="Orion">climateflation</keyword>’</cmsannotation> Climate economist <keyword id="20691057" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gernot-wagner" source="keywords">Gernot Wagner</keyword> from Columbia University's business school, commenting on the findings, termed this phenomenon as "climateflation", emphasising its tangible impact and compelling numbers. Moreover, the economists at the <keyword id="19921823" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="european-central-bank" source="keywords">European Central Bank</keyword> analysed over 20,000 data points to establish a tangible causal relationship between extreme weather events, particularly heatwaves, and the escalation of prices. Their projections for future climate change scenarios indicate alarming implications for inflation. While discussions on inflation and climate change often revolve around surging energy costs due to mitigation efforts, the study highlights a broader spectrum of challenges, including productivity shocks and reduced <keyword id="368984" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="agricultural-output" source="Orion">agricultural output</keyword> resulting from climate-induced weather patterns. The analysis underscores the repercussions witnessed during Europe's 2022 heatwave, where food supplies were adversely affected, leading to a two-thirds of a percentage point rise in food prices and a one-third of a percentage point spike in overall inflation. Certain regions like Romania, Hungary and southern Europe experienced even sharper price hikes. As these findings highlight the formidable challenge posed by the looming climate-driven inflation, they also underscore the need for policymakers, economists and environmental advocates to develop resilient strategies that safeguard against future disruptions and ensure a sustainable path forward for our global economy. The study was recently published in the journal Nature and can be accessed <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01173-x">here</a>.

Brace for ‘climateflation’: Study predicts rise in food price inflation amid worsening climate change

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wheat prices have surged over the past month, climbing to their highest level since August.</li><li>Global geopolitical conflict and extreme weather have impacted supply.</li></ul>Wheat prices have soared to their highest level in eight months thanks to a series of disruptions stemming from geopolitical conflict and extreme weather events.Chicago SRW wheat futures continued to surge throughout April, rising 15% in just the last month to trade at the highest level since August, according to Bloomberg data. Stockpiles of wheat have been drawn lower largely due to weather events and geopolitical disruptions. That includes excess rain in Europe and dry soil in Ukraine, Russia, Australia, and the US, all major wheat exporters. Bloomberg notes that strong harvests of the grain among countries on the Black Sea have helped keep prices lower, but futures markets are pricing in expectations for supply pressures to soon send prices up again. In addition to weather events, Russia's war with Ukraine has also driven prices higher. Russia has <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/wheat-prices-russia-ukraine-attack-grain-black-sea-odesa-putin-2023-7">attacked key grain hubs in Ukraine</a>, which caused wheat prices to skyrocket in 2023. Ukraine's workforce has also been depleted by its need for soldiers to fight back against Russia's invasion. Higher wheat prices could stoke inflation, which has clocked in hotter-than-expected in the US for the last three months. Consumer prices grew <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-food-energy-gas-prices-consumer-price-index-2024-4">3.5% year-over-year in March</a>, with food prices surging 2.2%.

Wheat prices have surged to 8-month highs amid global conflict and extreme weather

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Winter storm Lorraine brought heavy snow, high winds, and cold temperatures to New York on Tuesday.</li><li>The storm hit just a couple days after a weekend of warm, springlike temperatures.</li></ul>Millions <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-show-picturesque-scenes-brutal-cold-weather-swept-nation-2024-1">braced for snow</a> on Tuesday as winter storm Lorraine moved up the East Coast, delivering high winds, cold temperatures, and heavy snowfall from Philadelphia to Boston.New Yorkers were reeling as the sudden onslaught covered the city with one to three inches of accumulation, its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biggest-blizzards-us-winter-weather">biggest snowfall</a> in over two years. Lorraine came on the heels of an unseasonably <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/work-life-balance-weekend-time-management-2024-1?IR=C">warm weekend</a> in New York, where temperatures reached nearly 60 degrees Fahrenheit on Saturday — a balmy 17 degrees warmer than the NYC average high for this time of year.Experts say the storm is part of a growing trend they call “<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/california-weather-whiplash-floods-drought-getting-worse-atmospheric-rivers-2023-1">whiplash weather.</a>” These <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-climate-change-crisis-extreme-weather-is-costing-you-2023-9">episodes of erratic weather</a> can wreak havoc on infrastructure, disrupt travel, and can even be deadly. For example, the “Texas Freeze” of February 2021, which suddenly sunk temperatures after a streak of above-average warmth, killed 246 people. More recently, in January, Montana saw a 94-degree temperature swing in the span of just 15 days, and Minnesota plunged into a deep freeze mid-month after experiencing record-breaking warm temperatures in December. Winter storm Lorraine is the latest event in this growing trend, which experts say is driven largely by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/climate-action-30-global-leaders-climate-solutions-2023-11">global climate change</a>. But to understand how whiplash weather is reshaping winter in the US, scientists are looking to the Arctic. <h2>The polar vortex is like a figure skater</h2><div type="image" title="Polar Vortex" height="720" width="720" msid="107672970" hostid="261" sizebytes="25826"></div>For years, climate scientists thought that rising global temperatures would make weather more erratic in every season except for winter, explained Judah Cohen, a climatologist at MIT. In some ways, it makes sense: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/summer-2023-heat-wave-tracker-temperature-records-2023-5">rising global temperatures</a> should create milder winters with fewer storms.But in reality, the impact of climate change on winter weather is much more complex.“There’s another influence that we didn’t consider as recently as a decade ago: the way that climate change is occurring can influence the behavior of the polar vortex,” he said.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polar-vortex-dangers-why-it-happens-2019-1">The polar vortex</a> is a large area of low pressure and cold air above the North and South Poles. It’s called a “vortex” because it flows counterclockwise in a continuous circle that keeps this cold air trapped at the poles. Think of it like a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/professional-figure-skater-on-how-pain-altered-her-life-2022-2">figure skater</a>, said Cohen. To spin very fast, a figure skater has to tuck her arms, legs, and head into the center of her body. The same thing happens with the polar vortex. When it spins fast, the cold air stays tucked close to the center of rotation.But when the polar vortex slows down, its grip on this cold air loosens. This is what triggers Arctic outbreaks like Lorraine: when cold air in the polar jet stream surges down to lower latitudes.Some loosening and tightening of this grip is normal. The polar vortex tends to weaken in the summer and strengthen in the winter. But climate change is disrupting this cycle. “The way that climate change is happening in the Arctic is favoring this weak polar vortex,” Cohen said. “That’s when you get an increase in the probability of severe winter weather, cold, or snowfall.”Winter storm Lorraine is a direct result of this phenomenon. Last week, the polar vortex was strong and tight. But this week, it stretched out like a rubber band, Cohen said, sending a blast of cold temperatures and snowfall to the East Coast. <h2>Arctic warming is disrupting the polar vortex</h2><div type="image" title="Death Valley in California." height="768" width="1024" msid="107672972" hostid="261" sizebytes="126998"></div>Climate change is increasing global temperatures worldwide. But no place is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/un-report-devastating-arctic-temperature-rise-locked-in-2019-3">warming faster than the Arctic</a>. Research suggests that the North Pole has warmed two to four times faster than the rest of the world since 1990.This <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polar-vortex-hitting-us-might-be-connected-to-global-warming-2019-1">rapid warming</a> is likely what’s causing more frequent and extreme disruptions to the polar vortex, and unleashing the polar jet stream onto the mid-latitudes, Cohen explained. That’s because rising Arctic temperatures have destabilized the way that air flows around the world. In particular, the warmer temperatures are amplifying a naturally occurring “wave” of air that flows across Eurasia. When this amplified wave crashes into the polar vortex, it disrupts its circulation.When this happens, the US and Canada face the brunt of the wintry blast. “North America is really ground zero for these types of events,” Cohen said.That could explain why the US is still experiencing episodes of record-breaking low winter temperatures despite an overall rise in annual average temperatures, Cohen explained. The year 2023 may have been the hottest year on record, but some states still faced brutal cold. In February of that year, Boston recorded its coldest day since 1957, and Portland, Oregon saw its second snowiest day on record. <h2>Brace for weirder winters</h2><div type="image" title="Snow covers the shore of Joe Pool Lake during a winter storm on January 15, 2024." height="1500" width="2250" msid="107672974" hostid="261" sizebytes="262274"></div>Whiplash weather doesn’t seem to be going away any time soon. With the progression of climate change, the Arctic will continue to warm, and polar vortex disruptions could become increasingly common.“That doesn’t promise that it’s going to continue into the future,” Cohen said. “But a number of these events could continue as long as the conditions that support these disruptions continue.”Adapting to this new normal presents a unique challenge, as the erratic nature of whiplash weather makes it difficult to predict, which adds to the threat it poses to ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health, according to Jennifer Francis, an atmospheric scientist at Woodwell Climate Research Center. Demands for heat and electricity can shift drastically. And people can find themselves suddenly caught in dangerous conditions.“After a long dry spell, a sudden flip to heavy precipitation may catch people and communities unprepared,” Francis told BI in an email. And as climate change continues to warm the Arctic, Francis anticipates we will see more of these events.“Unless we can quickly and drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we'll see a very distinct increase in weather whiplash events in decades to come,” Francis wrote.

NYC gets hit by the biggest snowstorm in 2 years. It's part of a growing trend of extreme weather events.

Two trillion, six-hundred and fifteen billion dollars.It's an amount so large it's almost impossible to comprehend. It represents the estimated tab for 371 weather and climate disasters in the US since 1980 that topped $1 billion in damage. On the list are many of the country's most destructive tropical cyclones, droughts, and severe storms, the most recent being <a href="https://www.insider.com/tropical-storm-idalia-hurricane-forecast-florida-2023-8">Hurricane Idalia</a>. They're the events we can remember — and many more we likely can't because so many more disasters have been breaking into the billion-dollar club in recent years. Decade to decade, costly extreme weather events are increasing in both frequency and intensity as greenhouse gases build up in our atmosphere.Yet as big as the dollar figures can get, they can never convey all that is truly lost in these disasters. Countless costs to people get left out of official tallies, including mental and physical trauma. There are harms in the form of environmental damage and supply-chain disruptions. These become, in essence, hidden costs. And many of us are paying them.Meet a teacher who nearly died from heatstroke after a hike, a farmer in Texas who watched a hurricane and subsequent deep freeze wipe out much of his citrus crop, and a woman whose nonprofit lost everything to a flood.<h2>The true cost of extreme heat</h2>Lois Nigrin grew up on a farm and loved getting outdoors. So when she and her husband set off on a hike in Arizona as part of an anniversary trip, she didn't anticipate how wrong things could go. Heat was nothing new for Nigrin — and the couple had trained for the hike.<div type="image" title="A portrait photo of Lois Nigrin standing in front of foliage." height="2000" width="3000" msid="103845753" hostid="261" sizebytes="278284"></div>Yet the temperatures were so extreme that day in June 2019 that what was meant to be a celebration of decades of partnership ended up leaving Nigrin in a coma with third-degree burns on her backside. Her family rushed to the hospital to be with her in what doctors said would likely be her final hours.Nigrin, a teacher in Nebraska, survived the nightmare but still has the scars from her burns and skin grafts, which remind her how close she came to dying. Her ordeal points to the rising cost of extreme heat, the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-related-deaths" target="_blank" rel="noopener">leading weather-related killer</a> in the US.The type of heat that nearly killed Nigrin could add $1 billion every summer to US healthcare costs for things such as emergency-department visits, the Center for American Progress estimates. The problems are also likely to extend beyond the hospital into everyday life. The Atlantic Council predicts that a rising number of sweltering days could zap some $100 billion a year from the nation's labor productivity.For Nigrin, the full cost of extreme heat is something she's still grappling with.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/arizona-heat-so-hot-almost-killed-teacher-heatstroke-burns-2023-9">Read more about her story here.</a><h2>The true cost of volatile weather</h2>Dale Murden has the unflappable demeanor of a farmer who's been forced to deal with the ups and downs of a tough business. He's relied on that trait over his more than 40 years growing citrus and raising cattle in Harlingen, Texas.But in recent years, he's witnessed swings that leave him wondering whether times are changing and whether his farm, near the Mexico border, will remain in a subtropical climate.Murden watched in back-to-back seasons as a hurricane and then a deep freeze ruined huge portions of his grapefruit harvest and trees. Recovery has taken years.<div type="image" title="Owner of farm in orange orchard." height="3840" width="5760" msid="103845754" hostid="261" sizebytes="2181162"></div>As the weather gets more extreme, farmers are having a harder time knowing what to plan for. And supports such as crop insurance don't always cover all the costs that erratic weather delivers, particularly for fruit and vegetable growers. In Murden's case, some of his trees suffered damage when extreme cold dipped into the southern edge of Texas.An increase in the intensity of cold snaps is one of the more-peculiar developments of a warmer world: The heat can dislodge the bands of cold air that normally hug the Arctic — sending cold air plunging south. That's what Murden experienced in February 2021 when he lost much of his grapefruit harvest.Texas leads among states in both cumulative damages due to extreme weather and frequency of these events, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration analysis going back to 1980 found.The Texas citrus industry has experienced the fallout from volatile weather. Over the past two decades, citrus growers in Southeast Texas have produced nearly 274,000 tons of grapefruit and oranges on average each season. That was nearly cut in half during the 2020-21 season, according to data compiled by the Texas Valley Citrus Committee. The following year was even worse, yielding just under 74,000 tons.Economists at Texas A&amp;M University tallied overall losses at nearly $228 million and more than 1,000 jobs because the citrus harvest relies on seasonal workers who pick fruit.In states such as Texas, where costly weather is becoming the norm, it's getting harder for some farmers to get by. That's something Murden knows well.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-farming-extreme-cold-heat-weather-swings-2023-9">Read more about his experience here.</a> <h2 id="gi-flood">The true cost of flooding</h2>Barb Grant has built her life's work around helping others. For someone like Grant, being unable to help people in a crisis is an awful feeling. So when flood waters ripped through the offices of the nonprofit she runs in eastern Iowa, she felt helpless. She had to tell those she would normally assist that there wasn't much her community-aid organization could do for them. It, too, was dealing with ruinous flooding. <div type="image" title="Barb Grant standing on her newly renovated building." height="3023" width="4541" msid="103845756" hostid="261" sizebytes="701628"></div>The organization eventually recovered and was rebuilt on higher ground, yet whenever flooding is predicted, Grant feels on edge. She's not alone. Many people have experienced flooding — not just those along the coasts or near rivers. Torrential rains and snowmelt mean flooding is an almost daily event in the US. It's so common that flooding is the most frequent — and costliest — type of natural disaster in the country, according to the nonprofit Pew Charitable Trusts.Grant, like an increasing number of Americans, knows what often comes after a flood: a long recovery.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/flood-risks-american-businesses-nonprofit-iowa-still-recovering-2023-9">Read more about her story here.</a><h2>The true cost of inaction </h2>There is more to this story than a set of ruinous tragedies. Data suggests costs of extreme weather are trickling through the economy and could soon overwhelm our social safety net if left unchecked, economists told Insider. Doing nothing is a way to guarantee the tab continues to increase. It could also mean missing out on a huge opportunity. By taking action to curb emissions and move toward a more resilient economy, it's possible we could create a world where the climate crisis is just another pressure we need to deal with, rather than a string of unmanageable calamitous events.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-climate-crisis-can-change-make-economy-better-resilient-2023-9">Read about what could be ahead here.</a><h2>Credits</h2>Reporters: Annie Fu, Morgan McFall-Johnsen, Catherine Boudreau, Jacob Zinkula, Marianne Guenot Design, development, and graphics: Annie Fu Editors: Tim Paradis, Matt Turner, Josée Rose Copy editors: Nick Siwek, Jonann Brady Design editor: Kazi Awal Photo editor: Isabel Fernandez-Pujol Photographers: Rachel Jessen, Miriam Alarcón Avila, Arin Yoon, Jason Garza, Courtesy of Barb Grant, Courtesy of Operation Threshold

The true cost of extreme weather

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Cocoa prices have doubled during the past year, hitting an all-time high, Bloomberg reported.</li><li>The most active cocoa contract hit $5,600 a metric ton, passing a record high of $5,379 in 1977.</li></ul>Chocolate lovers beware: the price of cocoa has hit an all-time high, threatening to make chocolate more expensive.Cocoa prices have doubled during the past year, with the most active futures contract hitting $5,600 a metric ton on Thursday, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/cocoa-hits-record-on-tight-supply-threatening-pricier-treats?srnd=markets-vp">Bloomberg reported</a>. That's the highest price the contract has reached in data compiled by Bloomberg spanning 65 years.The last record high was notched in 1977, when contracts hit $5,379 a ton.At the crux of the crunch is <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/cocoa-prices-futures-high-chocolate-nino-shortages-harvest-commodity-scarcity-2023-11">extreme weather events</a> that have battered crops in West Africa, which provide most of the world's cocoa beans. After a torrent of rain helped spread a crop disease that buffeted supply, dry weather threatens to further stymie production.Earlier this week the president of the European Cocoa Association, Paul Davis, said he wouldn't rule out <a href="https://www.confectioneryproduction.com/video/40971/exclusive-paul-davis-european-cocoa-association-president-interview/">prices soaring to $6,000</a> a ton."We've got headwinds all over the place at the moment," he said. "Very expensive fertilizers, tough conditions for farmers, tough conditions for consumers."That's set to hurt the likes of chocolate makers like Hershey, which said in its <a href="https://hershey.gcs-web.com/static-files/332e9099-d69b-43a1-af08-06204f8e0ec8">earnings report</a> on Thursday that "historic cocoa prices" are expected to crimp earnings growth in 2024.And it's not a shortage that can be immediately reversed. While some growers have expanded their production amidst the shortage, new trees take a few years to grow cocoa beans."We are in a very tight balance," which is likely to last for another 18 months to three years, Davis said. "There is no cavalry that's coming to the rescue."Crops around the world have suffered from increasingly extreme weather events. Last year, damaged harvests also boosted the price of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/sugar-prices-spike-to-a-decade-high-on-rising-worries-of-a-global-shortage/articleshow/99441953.cms?_ga=2.74107474.1125357558.1707135147-319671707.1695743586">sugar</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/food-inflation-orange-juice-prices-florida-economy-eggs-olive-oil-2023-10">orange juice</a>, and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/europe-olive-oil-shortage-extreme-weather-heatwaves-prices-harvests-2023-9">olive oil</a> to multi-year highs.

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