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New Delhi [India], June 4 (ANI): The mammoth exercise to count votes polled for the Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 elections will begin at 8 am on Tuesday, with trends and results following shortly thereafter. Results of the <keyword id="6372146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Assembly-elections" source="Orion">Assembly elections</keyword> in Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh were held simultaneously with voting for the 543-member Lok Sabha. Results of 175 Assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh and 147 Assembly constituencies in Odisha and results of bypolls in 25 Assembly constituencies will also be declared today. Here're the LIVE results: <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Infographic"><cdata><![CDATA[]]></cdata></div> Strict security has been put in place for the smooth conduct of counting of votes for over 8,000 candidates in this general elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek a third consecutive term in government, while the Congress-led opposition aims to unseat them. Most <keyword id="43771" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="Orion">exit polls</keyword> have predicted a return of PM Modi to power, a development which will make him the first Prime Minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to secure a third successive term in power, Meanwhile, a delegation of Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc leaders met with the Election Commission of India urging it to ensure that postal ballots are counted and their results declared before the outcome of the EVMs is announced. Earlier, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar had said that a "very robust system" has been put in place. "There are around 10.5 lakh booths. Each booth will have 14 tables. There are observers and micro-observers. Nearly, 70-80 lakh people are involved in the process," he said. The national capital is all set to witness the battle. With tight security arrangements in place, Delhi is well-prepared to watch the results of the 2024 <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-Elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword>. Around 70 companies of the security forces will be deployed at all seven counting centres across the national capital as part of the elaborate security arrangements made by the Delhi Police for today. Delhi traffic police issued a fresh advisory ahead of the counting of votes scheduled for Tuesday, listing key roads where traffic restrictions and diversions will start from 5 am onwards to ensure smooth vehicular movement. Prime Minister Modi's hometown, Gujarat, is also preparing for the vote-counting day as security forces rehearse and perform drills for the effortless conduct of D-day. Exit polls have predicted the return of the BJP to power. Various exit polls have given the BJP more than 64 seats in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is poised for a hat-trick win in Lok Sabha polls with a massive majority. Exit polls were predicted on Saturday and indicated that the ruling party at the Centre would improve its performance in several states ruled by other parties. A few exit polls predicted that the BJP-led NDA could reach the goal of "400 paar" stated by BJP leaders in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls. The exit polls predicted that the ruling BJP-led NDA is poised to improve its performance over its 2019 record when it won 352 seats. Two polls predicted the BJP would also improve its numbers from the 303 seats it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2019 elections, NDA wrested 353 seats, of which the BJP won 303 alone. The Opposition's UPA got only 93 seats of which the Congress got 52. The Lok Sabha elections were conducted in seven phases- on April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1. The counting trends and results, as per data entered by RO/ARO for AC/PC will be available on the ECI website as well as on the Voter Helpline App, both iOS and Android Mobile Apps, according to the ECI. The Voter Helpline App can be downloaded from the Google Play Store or Apple Play Store. Users can use the available filter to find out the winning/leading or trailing candidate details, along with the constituency-wise or State-wise results from the Voter Helpline App. The local display of the trends and results by the CEOs/ROs/DEOs may also be done through the Digital Display Panels, it said.

Lok Sabha elections 2024 results: Mammoth vote-counting exercise set to begin at 8 am, amid high security

With latest trends showing the BJP falling below the majority mark, the Congress on Tuesday said it has become clear that it will be a staggering political and decisively <keyword id="21932463" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="moral-defeat" source="keywords">moral defeat</keyword> for <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword>. Counting of votes are underway for the <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword>, with BJP emerging as the single largest party but not getting a majority. <keyword id="21129157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="keywords">Exit polls</keyword> on Saturday predicted that Prime Minister Modi will retain power for a third straight term, with the BJP-led NDA expected to win a big majority in the Lok Sabha polls. Congress general secretary <keyword id="20035989" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jairam-Ramesh" source="keywords">Jairam Ramesh</keyword> in a post on X said the exit polls have been completely exposed for what they were -- "a <keyword id="21932465" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="total-sham" source="Orion">total sham</keyword>." "Trends for all 543 seats are now available. The following have become clear: It will be a staggering political and decisively moral defeat for Mr. Narendra Modi," Ramesh said. He said it has also become clear that "the exit polls that he orchestrated have been completely exposed for what they were--a total sham." Early trends from counting of votes on Tuesday threw up disappointing results for the BJP-led NDA in the Lok Sabha elections, which appears to be losing heavily in its strongholds of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan although it is expected to form the government with about 290 seats. On its own, the BJP appeared to be falling below the majority mark with leads in 240 seats despite significant gains in Odisha, Telangana and Kerala, giving some solace to the party after the unexpected losses in the Hindi belt.

Election trends show moral defeat for Narendra Modi, expose exit polls as a "total sham": Congress general secretary

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Former President Donald Trump bested Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.</li><li>Trump won largely by breaching Democrats' "blue wall."</li></ul>Former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> won a second term in office, overcoming an intense level of political opposition — as well as doubts over his fitness for office — by driving home a message that he would be the best candidate for Americans' pocketbooks.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1854053633198825482">Fox News</a> called the race early Wednesday morning. A little under four hours later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CNN/status/1854109735076676021">CNN</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/NBCPolitics/status/1854109434735169912">NBC News</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CBSNews/status/1854111079984501068">CBS News</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/ABCPolitics/status/1854111153305088285">ABC News</a> also called a Trump victory after the result in Wisconsin put Trump over the 270 electoral votes he needed to win the presidency.In defeating Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a>, Trump will return to the White House after voters ousted him from office in the 2020 election.Trump had essentially been running for president since his 2020 loss. He sought to overturn Joe Biden's victory and was impeached by the US House of Representatives for "incitement of insurrection" over his role in the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. (He was later acquitted by the US Senate.)In November 2022, Trump launched his presidential campaign on the heels of a disappointing night for the GOP, as the party failed to retake the Senate and only barely won back a House majority. But he used the head start to hammer potential GOP primary opponents and gradually reaffirmed his standing as the party's leader.Trump easily dispatched top figures like Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ron-desantis-wife-kids-family-photos">Ron DeSantis</a> of Florida and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nikki-haley-family-husband-kids-immigrant-parents-photos">Nikki Haley</a>, the former ambassador to the UN, in the 2024 GOP primaries, which further strengthened his hand as he eyed a general-election rematch against Biden.But Biden's exit from the race — following a disastrous <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-biden-trump-debate-takeaways-2024-6">debate against Trump</a> in June — paved the way for Harris' candidacy. The vice president quickly consolidated Democratic support and attracted the sort of donor base that was able to compete directly with GOP megadonors.Still, Trump continued to hold a polling advantage on the economy throughout the general-election race, which for many voters overrode concerns over his behavior while in office.And despite Harris' strong start and her robust campaign apparatus, she was still unable to overcome Trump's enduring level of support from his conservative base.Addressing his supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida, early Wednesday morning, before the race was called, Trump said his election victory would usher in the "golden age of America" and vowed to "help our country heal.""America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate," he added.Trump's return to the White House is also poised to have profound effects on the judiciary.Should either Associate Justices <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/clarence-thomas-takes-aim-at-osha-2024-7">Clarence Thomas</a> or Samuel Alito retire from the bench within the next four years, Trump has the potential to name at least one more conservative jurist to the court. And if he is able to appoint two additional justices, it means that a majority of the court would consist of his appointees — a stunning level of influence that could have reverberations for generations.

Trump wins the 2024 presidential election

New Delhi [India], June 4 (ANI): With counting progressing in <keyword id="19912155" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-polls" source="keywords">Lok Sabha polls</keyword>, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led <keyword id="20344628" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="National-Democratic-Alliance" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="National Democratic Alliance" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="National Democratic Alliance">National Democratic Alliance</keyword> is leading on more than 100 seats as per the latest trends according to TV channels. Around 642 million people voted in Lok Sabha elections held over seven phases in a mammoth six-week period. The counting of votes began starting with postal ballot papers amid tight security. The counting for State Legislative Assemblies of 175 Assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh and 147 Assembly constituencies in Odisha and results of bypolls in 25 Assembly constituencies also began. The Lok Sabha elections for 543 seats of the lower house were held across seven phases. The <keyword id="19931558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bharatiya-Janata-Party" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bharatiya Janata Party" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bharatiya Janata Party">Bharatiya Janata Party</keyword> is eyeing a third straight term in power, while the Opposition under the umbrella of the <keyword id="19895684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="INDIA-bloc" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="INDIA bloc" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="INDIA bloc">INDIA bloc</keyword> is seeking to wrest power from the ruling party.Most exit polls predicted a straight term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with quite few of them projecting a two-thirds majority for the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (<keyword id="41281" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDA" source="Orion">NDA</keyword>). The Congress party and its allies dismissed the exit polls as "orchestrated" and a work of "fantasy", asserting that the opposition INDIA bloc will form the next government at the Centre. Strict security has been put in place for the smooth conduct of counting of votes for over 8,000 candidates in this general election. With counting began for the Lok Sabha elections, which have seen the largest voter participation, the electoral fate of several leaders across the political spectrum will be decided. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh are among the senior BJP leaders in the fray. Key opposition leaders, including former Congress chief Rahul Gandhi, NCP's Supriya Sule, and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, are also contesting the poll. Two polls predicted the BJP would also improve its numbers from the 303 seats it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2019 elections, NDA wrested 353 seats, of which the BJP won 303 alone. The Opposition's UPA got only 93 seats of which the Congress got 52. Even before the counting of the votes, the Bharatiya Janata Party won one seat of Surat Lok Sabha. Earlier on April 22, Mukesh Dalal won the election "unopposed". Congress nominee Nilesh Kumbhani's nomination was rejected. His candidacy was rejected because of alleged discrepancies in the signatures of the proposers.

Lok Sabha election results: BJP-led NDA leading in 100 plus seats in early trends

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Prediction markets can be more accurate than polling when it comes to elections, a professor told Business Insider.</li><li>There's over $606 million wagered on the 2024 election on Polymarket, favoring a Harris win.</li></ul>When trying to figure out the outcome of an election, most look at polling, expert takes, or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-presidential-election-prediction-winner-donald-trump-kamala-harris-2024-8">even the stock market</a>. However, prediction markets, which allow bettors to wager on the outcome of events, may be the most accurate way of calling the result ahead of November 5. They've successfully forecast the last few presidential cycles and even predicted President Joe Biden would drop out weeks in advance.While they're not without their misses — they were notably wrong during the 2022 midterm elections, and after Biden won the 2020 election — Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane says prediction markets are historically more accurate than traditional polling. In the past month, a series of election-related events—an attempted assassination against Trump, President Joe Biden stepping down and endorsing Kamala Harris, and both candidates picking their running mates—have adjusted polling considerably.Yet Crane says these adjustments are often reflected in prediction markets more quickly.Polymarket, a crypto-based betting market, predicted a 70% chance President Joe Biden would drop out of the race this year as far back as July 4, two weeks before he actually bowed out."It's an event-driven market. So the past month has been very active because events have occurred that are of extreme significance," Crane said.And the markets will likely get even quicker at factoring in new information on election night in November.As vote totals, exit polls, and absentee ballots come in, prediction markets "move pretty significantly and pretty quickly in response to that information," he said.<h2 id="7dc81ce7-8b15-46b0-8923-323c06d08f5d">The user base is (literally) invested in the outcome</h2>There's a range of participants in betting markets, and most are making highly informed wagers, Crane said.There are recreational bettors who may just have an interest in whatever topic is up for debate, as well as professional bettors and betting syndicates whose livelihoods are at stake. There are also companies looking to hedge risk if they may be affected by candidates' proposed policies. With <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1723813625985">$606.5 million</a> riding on the election outcome on Polymarket alone, participants watch the news closely, Crane said. Even if they aren't based in the US, they are just as clued into election updates since their money is on the line.He likens it to sports betting: "I don't need to be a professional football player to know how to understand what's going to happen in a football game. And in fact, I could be better at it than players in the game from a betting or informational perspective," he said.<h2 id="fb2c38a6-7896-42bc-9923-760bf527f3ee">Higher participation could boost accuracy</h2>Crane says that prediction markets could become even more accurate— and avoid any potential risk of manipulation by political groups —if they are fully legalized in the US.The most popular prediction markets are largely unavailable to US participants. US-based users can't bet on Polymarket, and Betfair, one of the longest-running events markets, is only available in some US states.PredictIt, a project founded by researchers in New Zealand, has operated in the US under a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission since 2014, but limits American bettors to up to $850 in wagers, and only 5,000 betters can participate in each market.PredictIt is facing headwinds from the CFTC, which is looking to outlaw all election betting. If passed, Americans wouldn't be legally allowed to participate in any prediction markets, though some may try using VPNs to bypass regulations, which likely occurs now.Crane also said more participation would make manipulation less likely.While there's no hard evidence, he guesses that political bets may be especially prone to attempts at manipulation or influence. "Everything kind of feeds off of everything else, and by trying to limit one aspect of it, or trying to police one aspect of it, it can often ruin the entire market function," Crane said."I think that no limitations is actually the way to go if we want to have better, cleaner, more accurate markets."

Why prediction markets can be more accurate than polls at predicting election results

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Until Sunday, President Biden had insisted for weeks that he would remain the Democratic nominee.</li><li>But Nancy Pelosi's influence on the race likely proved to be a force too strong to withstand.</li></ul>President Joe Biden earlier this month said that he'd step aside as the Democratic nominee <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-abc-interview-only-god-gets-him-drop-out-2024-2024-7">only if "the Lord Almighty" came down</a> and told him to.And on Sunday, Biden — weighed down by a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/which-elected-democrats-called-on-joe-biden-drop-out-2024-7">growing number</a> of Democratic lawmakers calling for him to exit the race — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-what-happens-next-2024-7">dropped out</a> of the race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.While speculation had swirled for weeks regarding Biden's intentions following his poor debate performance last month, the president's decision is still stunning since he had repeatedly insisted he would continue his reelection bid.A veteran of Washington politics for more than 50 years, Biden has weathered storms like few other candidates in modern history.But he met his match in former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who remains perhaps the party's most important political strategist despite having ceded her leadership role early last year.Pelosi led Democratic House majorities from 2007 to 2011 and from 2019 to 2023, anchored by victories in critical swing districts across the country. In addition to Pelosi's legendary whip operation on the House floors, she has a keen ability to sense when candidates are in trouble in their districts.And based on data from multiple pollsters, Biden continued to trail Trump after the debate. The dynamic that Biden hoped to reverse simply hadn't changed.Pelosi privately told Biden and several colleagues that she found it incredibly difficult to see a path forward for his candidacy, The New York Times reported. She also reportedly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/schumer-jeffries-conversations-biden-staying-in-race-hurts-democrats-2024-7">worked behind the scenes</a> to get him to drop out. Her influence has been so significant that Biden himself considered her the "main instigator" of the situation, as the Times <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-netanyahu-visit-drop-out-nyt-2024-7">wrote</a>.She also apppeared on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" (one of Biden's favorite programs) and said that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pelosi-biden-presidential-race-democrats-debate-2024-7">it was up to him to decide</a> if he wanted to stay in the race, even though he'd already clearly and repeatedly said he was staying in it. Notably, she did not explicitly endorse Biden in the interview and said "time is running short" for him to make a decision, which, again, he'd already made.Her statements and backroom maneuvers undoubtedly gave her Democratic <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/adam-schiff-calls-on-biden-drop-out-2024-7">congressional colleagues</a> the cover they needed to call for Biden to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/which-elected-democrats-called-on-joe-biden-drop-out-2024-7">step aside</a>.Pelosi is a Democratic Party institutionalist through and through.She has worked with Biden for decades and helped shepherd key pieces of legislation, including the bipartisan infrastructure law and the Inflation Reduction Act, through the House. When Biden served as vice president under President Barack Obama, she did the same in getting the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act and the Affordable Care Act through Congress and to the president's desk.Pelosi has long touted her strong working relationship with Biden.But the state of the 2024 presidential campaign was a critical crossroads for Pelosi.She knew that Biden continued to falter in polling after the June debate. And swing-district Democrats, wary of Biden potentially tamping down enthusiasm at the top of the ticket, clearly relayed their concerns to her about his standing.Pelosi, long known for her blunt manner, didn't lead the House Democratic Caucus for 20 years by accident.In withdrawing from the race and backing Harris to succeed him, Biden demonstrated the sort of passing of the torch that many Democrats had hoped to see earlier in his term.But it highlighted the enduring power of Pelosi, whose influence continues to profoundly shape the Democratic Party.

Biden said only the 'Lord Almighty' could get him to exit the presidential race. Then came Nancy Pelosi.

Ben Higgins, 35, could be your prototypical politician.Charming, handsome, and well spoken, Higgins uses his work as an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/kitchen/generous-coffee-review">entrepreneur and philanthropist</a> to help fight poverty. He's also an independent who doesn't identify strongly with either side of the political spectrum."It's very topic by topic for me," he said. "It's very much understanding the issue, hearing the story behind the issue, hearing why people believe what they believe, and then trying to make logical, rational solutions and decisions."If Higgins' name sounds familiar, it's probably because you saw him on television — and not during a debate. Higgins served as the 20th American Bachelor on ABC's long-running and wildly popular romance reality show. Higgins did somewhat attempt to use "The Bachelor" as a jumping-off point into politics; back in 2016, he was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thewrap.com/ben-higgins-bachelor-congress/">given the opportunity to run for state representative in Colorado</a> while working on his own spinoff show. But that bid was incredibly short-lived."That ran into issues over time, mostly legally, with how that was going to be filmed and who they were filming and how they were showing it. And that's ultimately why my campaign had to end," Higgins said — seemingly nodding to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.denverpost.com/2016/07/25/disney-abc-forces-ben-higgins-drop-colorado-house-race/">reports</a> that the corporate overlords at Disney, which owns ABC, did not want to televise the former Bachelor's political ambitions. (The Disney-owned channel set to air the spin-off said at the time it had concerns broadcasting a show featuring the campaign "could raise significant compliance issues under Colorado election laws.")<div type="image" title="Ben Higgins and Lauren Bushnell discuss &quot;The Bachelor&quot; at AOL Studios in New York on March 15, 2016 in New York City." height="2000" width="3000" msid="113455139" hostid="261" sizebytes="203656"></div>Bachelor Nation's aversion to comingling political ambitions with the TV show makes some sense. Popular culture has for years been breaking into niche after niche. You can exist in a bubble of "The Bear" watchers without ever joining the masses watching "Young Sheldon." But "The Bachelor" is different: It's perhaps one of our last monocultures, alongside stalwarts like the NFL. The show, which kicked off in 2002, has had its ratings stumbles over the years, but it has recently experienced <a target="_blank" href="https://deadline.com/2024/03/the-bachelor-joey-record-ratings-hometown-dates-abc-1235846511/">a viewership resurgence</a>, with just over <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thewrap.com/the-bachelor-season-28-finale-ratings-abc/">6.3 million people tuning in to watch the finale of Joey Graziadei's season</a> in March. "The Golden Bachelor," which featured contestants over the age of 60, delivered blockbuster ratings in late 2023, reaching the coveted <a target="_blank" href="https://deadline.com/2024/01/the-golden-bachelor-35-day-delayed-viewership-abc-1235805784/">18-to-49 market</a> while <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/arts/television/golden-bachelor-senior-center-watch-party.html">courting older viewers</a>. Given the franchise's relatively strong position, why risk that power by mixing in the messy, polarizing, and exhausting world of American politics?But under the surface, "The Bachelor" is already a political show. Whitewashed, vaguely Christian, and deeply heterosexual, the presentation of "The Bachelor" is a lot like the median US voter, which is also the exact audience it's long catered to. Its fandom reaches across a wide spectrum of the population in a way few other forms of mass media do, and the show itself reflects many of the broad sociopolitical themes in America. So it might be worth accepting the rose and looking at what the show tells us about the country. By understanding "The Bachelor," we can better understand the political landscape of America — and maybe even glean a little insight into this year's election.<h2>Who will win the 2024 rose?</h2>Graziadei, the Bachelor who delivered monster ratings in the spring, made a cameo in February at a different kind of rose ceremony. Instead of looking for love on his own, Graziadei was helping the second gentleman, Doug Emhoff, <a target="_blank" href="https://bachelornation.com/2024/02/14/joey-graziadei-visits-the-white-house-and-helps-the-second-gentleman-give-the-vice-president-a-rose/">present a rose to Vice President Kamala Harris</a> in honor of Valentine's Day. It was a moment that breached the fourth wall of "The Bachelor": a lead openly acknowledging and becoming a part of politics. (The White House declined to comment on the collaboration.)When Chad Kultgen and Lizzy Pace, the cohosts of the popular "Bachelor" podcast "Game of Roses" and coauthors of "How to Win The Bachelor," saw the video of Graziadei at the White House, they were stunned. Their podcast examines the game mechanics of "The Bachelor" like a sport — akin to its fellow monoculture, the NFL — and goes in deep with statistical metrics to analyze contestants' strategies and plays. Pace said she "screamed" when the video came out."I couldn't believe what I was looking at," she told us. Kultgen, for his part, theorized that it was orchestrated by Harris' people — you wouldn't see a producer or ABC reaching out to the White House for a collab."Whoever's part of putting together their propaganda is saying: We need to get 'The Bachelor' in here," Kultgen said of the strategy by the vice president's team.<div type="image" title="Joey Graziadei smiles in front of the Bachelor mansion in a blue suit, white shirt, and black tie." height="2400" width="3000" msid="113455146" hostid="261" sizebytes="213676"></div>Beyond the holiday-themed video, the Harris campaign's desire to court Bachelor Nation was also made clear by a line tucked away in a recent press release about its big plan to spend $90 million in August on advertising."Ads will be targeted to high-impact programming that reaches the voters Team Harris-Walz needs to reach to win 270 electoral votes," the press release said. "That includes local broadcast and cable programming and non-political programming like The Bachelorette, Big Brother, The Daily Show, Love &amp; Hip Hop: Atlanta, and The Simpsons."During a political season that is awash in advertising, the campaign is sending a clear signal: The demographics it can reach during breaks from the rose ceremony could be key to swinging the election.The focus on Bachelor Nation also makes sense given the franchise's viewership is dominated by one of the most crucial swing votes of recent elections: white women. A 2020 <a target="_blank" href="https://today.yougov.com/entertainment/articles/33065-bachelor-nation-profile-poll">study from the polling firm YouGov</a> found that about three-quarters of "Bachelor" fans were women and that a similar share was white. The fandom is split between younger and older viewers; about one-third of viewers were between ages 25 and 44, while roughly one-quarter were 65 or older. In the past two presidential elections, white women were the most closely split demographic subgroup tracked by major exit polls. In <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls">2016</a>, Donald Trump won over 52% of white women against Hillary Clinton's 43%, exit polls found, while Trump bested Joe Biden in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results">2020</a> among white women 55% to 44%. That relatively close divide is set to continue in 2024. In the Pew Research Center's most recent national poll, conducted between August 6 and September 2, Trump led among white women with 54% of the vote to Harris' 45%. As in the exit polls from the past two elections, that 9-point difference was the smallest among the race and gender groups studied in the poll.The close divide is even more apparent in key swing states. A <a target="_blank" href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3904">Quinnipiac swing-state poll</a> conducted between September 4 and September 8 found a tight race between Trump and Harris in Georgia and North Carolina, and the cross-tabulations suggested that white women could be a deciding factor in each state. Trump had a strong 64% to 31% lead over Harris among white women in Georgia, but in North Carolina, Harris led among the demographic 51% to 47%. It shows how this group could decide the next election.And rather than catering to one side of the political aisle or the other, Hulu, the platform that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/streaming/where-to-watch-the-bachelorette-season-21">hosts "The Bachelor" for streaming</a>, has robust bipartisan usage. In a <a target="_blank" href="https://pro.morningconsult.com/morning-consult-intelligence">Morning Consult Intelligence</a> poll of 27,633 people from January 1, 2023, to September 9, 2024, about half of US adults said they used Hulu. As for the demographics of that usage, about 56% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans said they used Hulu — with Republicans in particular seeing a spike during the most recent season of "The Bachelorette."The overlap between the swingiest demographic and the "Bachelor" audience suggests Bachelor Nation has value to those who seek to lead our nation.<h2>A tense history of race and religion</h2>As much as "The Bachelor" can tell us about the state of the country's politics, America's shifting landscape has also been reflected back into the reality of the show. For most of its run, the show has operated within a certain framework: Politics are never overtly discussed, and neither are hot-button issues like abortion or guns. Things like a nonwhite lead or a predominantly nonwhite cast are still relatively new in the world of "The Bachelor." It's also rooted in an omnipresent but barely visible sense of Christianity. Contestants are assumed to be Christian until they're not — but skew too evangelical, and you're edited to look a little less religious."I actually find 'The Bachelor' to be very political. When I watch the show, it, to me — it is pretty obvious that it's a conservative-leaning production," Natasha Scott-Reichel, a cohost of the popular "Bachelor" and pop-culture podcast "2 Black Girls, 1 Rose," said. While the show might be aiming to be apolitical, that's a statement in and of itself."The void of diversity for so long is within itself a statement about its politics — that it is trying to cater to this Middle America that is very afraid of conversations, particularly surrounding race or sexual identity or sexual orientation," Scott-Reichel said.In the past few years, however, politics and the contestants' political identities have begun to spill into the carefully maintained middle of the road. For the Americans who have seen their loved ones — or even themselves — galvanized out of political apathy in the wake of the 2016 and 2020 elections, it's a transformation mirrored by their favorite reality show.In 2018, Claire Fallon — a cohost of the popular "Bachelor" podcast "Love to See It" — accidentally helped kick off one of the first public cracks in the "Bachelor" veneer of apoliticism. Before the Bachelorette Becca Kufrin's season even kicked off, Fallon and her cohost, Emma Gray, helped <a target="_blank" href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/bachelorette-premiere-garrett-yrigoyen_n_5b0837d9e4b0fdb2aa5342b6">corroborate accounts</a> that Garrett Yrigoyen, the eventual winner, had been liking posts from right-wing Instagram pages. Kufrin was a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bachelorette-becca-kufrin-garrett-yrigoyen-social-media-instagram-scandal-2018-5">fairly public liberal</a>, which turned the whole viewing experience from a fairytale love story into something much more realistically American: two people who were dating and did not realize they had drastically different political views. That moment was a pivotal tiptoe toward something new. Yrigoyen apologized for his likes and discussed how it strained him and Kufrin as a couple. But the conversation didn't broach the substance of those likes. The couple split in 2020, and Kufrin <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bachelorette-becca-kufrin-vote-election-2021-1">later told Business Insider</a>'s Anneta Konstantinides that if she were to become the Bachelorette again, the first thing she'd do when she walked into the house would be to ask everyone whom they voted for."There's no way in hell they'd show that conversation," she said.And while the fan base moved on to its next Bachelor — Colton Underwood, a former NFL player who later came out as gay and <a target="_blank" href="https://people.com/tv/colton-underwood-jordan-c-brown-relationship-timeline/">married a Democratic strategist</a> — Fallon said politics started to become an active topic of discussion in the parasocial world of its loyal fan base. Higgins thinks the fascination with contestants' politics and likes goes back to something at the core of the show: relatability (he believes this is why he was handed the lead role). People want to see themselves in contestants, and that includes some of their closest-held beliefs."I think people are still looking for that relatability, and so they're intrigued with, 'Well, I like you for what I see on television, but do I like you for actually what you stand for politically?'" Higgins said. The Kufrin-Yrigoyen situation was mostly quelled (or at least forgotten) in the court of public opinion, and as Fallon said, the show erected barriers against the rising tides of political polarization, working hard to keep itself out of it. But soon, the barriers were fully breached. The 25th season of "The Bachelor," which aired in early 2021, featured the <a target="_blank" href="https://people.com/tv/matt-james-official-bachelor-cast-meet-the-32-women/">franchise's first Black male lead</a>, Matt James, who was 28 when the show was filming. Rachael Kirkconnell, the season's eventual winner, caused a whirlwind of controversy when photos emerged on social media of the contestant <a target="_blank" href="https://people.com/tv/rachael-kirkconnell-dropped-out-college-greek-life-after-she-learned-formal-racist/">attending an antebellum-plantation-themed party</a> a few years prior. The reaction was furious. James' and Kirkconnell's finale, broadcast live after the pictures had come out, eschewed the traditional "Bachelor" ending of checking in on the happy couple in favor of a two-hour discussion on race in America. The franchise's longtime host, Chris Harrison, was fired after defending Kirkconnell's photos — even though she was on a tour apologizing for them. A franchise that had long aimed to sit in a happy apolitical parallel-universe America unburdened by the country's often dark history was thrust onto one of the nation's core cultural fault lines."That was a moment where the political turmoil in our country created an internal conflict for the show that it couldn't really resolve," Fallon said. Since then, it's been difficult for the show to avoid politics despite desperate attempts to steer away from them. And as Justine Kay, the other cohost of "2 Black Girls, 1 Rose," noted, it took making a Black woman the Bachelorette — the well-regarded Charity Lawson — to <a target="_blank" href="https://deadline.com/2023/08/the-bachelorette-season-20-delayed-viewing-ratings-fantasy-suites-abc-1235520103/">lure audience members back</a> to the show, which had been <a target="_blank" href="https://collider.com/the-bachelorette-season-20-successful-marriage/">dealing with its own rating slump</a>.Since then, much like the rest of America's interest in the daily machinations of Trump-run Washington, the fans' fascination with the contestants' politics hasn't evaporated but seems to have become more tempered. After all, President Joe Biden's tenure has often <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/11/joe-biden-2024-election-post-policy-era/676157/">been</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/joe-biden-2024-donald-trump-boring-important-1234723195/">deemed</a> boring, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-economy-is-bidenomics-working-policies-progress-unnoticed-2023-9">marked instead by quieter policy work</a>. In the same vein, over the past few seasons, prominent contestants have reportedly liked right-wing and Trump-leaning posts; those revelations haven't seemed to rock the fan base as much as in the past."Partly what we're seeing is that it feels like the battle for cultural dominance in the form of 'Bachelor,' within the franchise, is no longer a fever pitch," Fallon said. "It feels like the liberal viewers sort of won."Kultgen tied that sentiment to the larger political landscape. During the Trump administration, right-wing posts and sentiments were not given an inch of space because every moment felt like a crisis. The "Bachelor" fan base's newfound shrugging might reflect the cultural and political spotlight Trump has lost; he's a candidate who can become effectively trolled over claims around <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-trolled-donald-trump-about-rally-crowd-size-2024-9">how many people are showing up to watch him</a>. In the past — like in 2018 — questioning Trump support was a brave new world for Bachelor Nation. Now it's become almost the default. It's ironic that the reality-TV-show candidate has lost the reality-TV viewers. Of course, that's not to say that the "Bachelor" fan base, or contestant base, became leftist overnight. But the carving of centrist, left-leaning politics as the new base expectation is a development years in the making. This time, there was no larger-scale reckoning onstage with the ramifications of liking Trump; the show has done that, something that would've been unheard of a decade ago. And if that's where the winds of the monoculture are blowing, the Harris-Walz campaign ad spend might be a good bet.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/juliana-kaplan">Juliana Kaplan</a> is a senior labor and inequality reporter on Business Insider's economy team.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/andy-kiersz">Andy Kiersz</a> is a quantitative editor on Business Insider's economy team.

How a reality TV show became the pivotal demographic in the 2024 election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wisconsin has long been a competitive state in presidential politics.</li><li>The state for years has produced razor-thin results, and it is poised to do so again in November.</li></ul>There's nothing easy about winning a statewide race in Wisconsin.Over the past 25 years, Democrats and Republicans have braced themselves for hard-fought fights in the politically-polarized state, with most presidential contenders stumping in the state so much that voters truly feel like they're part of the action.Wisconsin has 10 Electoral College votes, which certainly isn't the largest haul. (That would be California, with its 54 electoral votes.)But the Badger State has arguably become the most consequential state on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/battleground-states-2024-presidential-election-road-white-house-2022-12">2024 presidential map</a> by virtue of its Midwestern sensibilities and the highly competitive nature of its closely divided electorate, which makes it a bellwether for the politics of the United States.In what is likely to be a contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the state is set to once again be at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-trump-presidential-election-100-days-swing-states-2024-7">the center of the political universe</a> in November.How did Wisconsin become such a key battleground?<h2 id="7bb75a87-e80c-41f4-bb01-57fa5e290002">The growing urban-rural divide</h2>It's generally accepted that presidential races in Wisconsin will be decided by razor-thin margins.In 2000, then-Vice President Al Gore won the state over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush by a 0.22% margin. Four years later, then-Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry defeated Bush in the state by a 0.38% margin.The common denominator: Democrats <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-throttled-college-towns-democrats-swing-states-millennials-gen-z-2023-7">romped</a> in the urban centers of Milwaukee and Madison, while also performing well in the Driftless Area and in blue-leaning northern counties. And while Democrats did not win many of the rural counties, they remained competitive overall, allowing them to eek out slim wins statewide.Barack Obama changed this narrative in 2008 and 2012, though, winning by broad margins of roughly 14 points and 7 points, respectively. In the first race, Obama performed powerfully across rural Wisconsin, a huge breakthrough for Democrats.But in 2016, Trump flipped Wisconsin into the GOP column for the first time since 1984, winning by a 0.77% margin and breaking down the "blue wall" that had held for decades.Four years later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-sweeps-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-battleground-states-election-2020-11">Biden won Wisconsin</a> for the Democrats by a similarly tight 0.63% margin.While both parties are clearly competitive in Wisconsin, the urban-rural divide — similar to much of the United States — has only grown wider. In the Badger State, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wisconsin-supreme-court-justice-karofsky-public-officials-threats-democracy-insurrectionists-2024-1">heavily gerrymandered GOP-crafted districts</a> and conservative rule dominating Madison for more than a decade — in what's essentially a 50-50 state — have hardened partisan levels.<h2 id="baf2a68e-09b4-4f7e-8624-ac684ac036b3">What will a Trump vs. Harris matchup look like?</h2>This year, Harris and Trump are competing for many of the same voters, but they're also appealing heavily to their respective bases.After Biden stepped aside as the Democratic nominee in July, Harris' first major political rally as a presidential contender was held in West Allis, a suburb in Milwaukee County.This was not by accident.The vice president will need to win the county — filled with Democratic-leaning independents and voters in deep blue Milwaukee — by a sizable margin to offset what's expected to be Trump's strength across rural parts of the state.Trump earlier this summer campaigned in Racine, as he hopes to carve out working-class support in an area that's politically competitive but in recent years has leaned toward the GOP on the presidential level.Both parties are itching to win the state: Republicans held their national convention in Milwaukee earlier in July, where Trump also tapped Ohio Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-selects-jd-vance-running-mate-vice-president-2024-6">JD Vance</a> as his vice presidential running mate. And Harris could potentially select Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, which would put another Midwestern voice in the vice presidential mix.The 2024 race will be centered on the economy, and whoever makes the most persuasive argument will likely win Wisconsin.But the messenger will matter.Even as Biden ended his campaign, Wisconsin was the swing state where <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/">he remained best positioned</a> ahead of the fall, as his support among white working-class voters there <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-wisconsin-white-non-college-voters-swing-states-election-2024-6">had not collapsed</a>.While it will likely take another week to get a better sense of Harris' standing in the state, early polling indicates another close contest. A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/07/Fox_July-22-24-2024_Wisconsin_Topline_July-26-Release.pdf">Fox News poll</a> taken after Biden's exit showed Trump leading Harris by one point (50% to 49%) among registered voters.But this is Wisconsin, after all. The political suspense is here to stay.

How Wisconsin became the must-win state of the 2024 presidential race

<ul class="summary-list"><li>President Biden wanted to use the debate to change the dynamics of the 2024 race.</li><li>But his poor performance sent Democrats reeling and has opened him up to intraparty criticism.</li></ul>Weeks before the June presidential debate, the Biden campaign had sought to shake up the dynamics of the race, agreeing for the president to take the stage with former President Donald Trump.Biden's team wanted the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-biden-trump-debate-takeaways-2024-6">debate</a> to crystallize what they've long argued: that the president was well-equipped to serve in a second term and would be the more effective leader on the world stage.But the president's visible debate stumbles set his campaign back enormously in the eyes of top <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-june-fundraising-haul-donors-spooked-election-debate-2024-7">donors</a> and even among some Democratic lawmakers, which in turn has so far deprived him a potential polling bounce that could have broken the deadlocked race.Instead, two major national surveys released after the election showed Biden lagging behind Trump.In a new <a target="_blank" href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/02/biden-trump-poll-post-debate/74263315007/">USA Today/Suffolk University poll</a>, Trump boasted a 41% to 38% lead over Biden among registered voters, still within the margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.However, a USA Today/Suffolk poll <a target="_blank" href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/02/biden-trump-poll-post-debate/74263315007/">released in May</a> showed both candidates tied, 37% to 37%.In the latest survey, Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received the support of 8% of registered voters.While the race remains close overall, Biden is still far behind Trump when it comes to enthusiasm, per the new USA Today/Suffolk survey.Among Biden voters, 29% of respondents said they were "very excited" to vote for him, while 31% said they were "somewhat excited" to back him. A quarter (25%) of Biden voters said they were "not very excited" to support him.When it came to Trump voters, 59% of respondents said they were "very excited" to support him, while an additional 23% said they were "somewhat excited" to back his candidacy. Only 11% of Trump voters said they were "not very excited" about his 2024 campaign.The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/politics/cnn-poll-post-debate/index.html">latest CNN poll</a>, conducted across three days after the debate, showed Trump with a 49% to 43% lead over Biden.Despite Democratic frustration over Biden's performance, the results reflected no change from CNN's April survey.But there were some key nuggets in the latest CNN poll:<ul><li>Vice President Kamala Harris runs more competitively with Trump than Biden in a potential matchup should the president exit the race. Trump has a narrow two-point lead (47% to 45%) over Harris among registered voters in such a scenario.</li><li>In a potential Harris-Trump matchup, the vice president wins 50% of female voters, compared to Biden's current 43% share against the former president.</li><li>California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg — who have all been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-reelection-democrats-harris-newsom-whitmer-klobuchar-booker-cooper-moore-2024-2">floated</a> as potential Biden replacements — all trail Trump by single-digit margins in hypothetical matchups.</li></ul>

Biden wanted the debate to give his campaign a boost. But after his poor performance, new polling shows Trump ahead.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Biden leads Trump and DeSantis in swing state Michigan by 3 and 6 points respectively.</li><li>Trump won the state in 2016 and Biden flipped it back in 2020.</li></ul>President Joe Biden currently leads former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in Michigan, the Midwest battleground state key to his reelection chances next year.In a poll <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4207209-biden-leads-trump-desantis-in-michigan-poll/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">conducted</a> by Susquehanna Polling &amp; Research that was first disclosed with The Hill, Biden led Trump by 3 points (46%-43%) and held a 6-point advantage (48%-42%) over DeSantis in the Wolverine State.Biden also has some room to grow among Democrats, as he earned the support of 87% of Democrats in the poll, compared to the 90% of Republicans who said that they'd back Trump. (In the 2020 presidential race, 97% of Michigan Democrats backed Biden and 94% of Republicans supported Trump, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/michigan" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to CNN exit polling</a>.)The president also leads Trump 44%-37% among independent and unaffiliated voters, a critical bloc that in 2020 gave him strong margins in suburban Detroit and helped him win Kent County, home to Grand Rapids.The survey offers some bright news for Biden, who has sought to appeal to the blue-collar, working-class votes who often play the decisive role in determining the outcome of statewide elections. In 2016, Trump narrowly won Michigan over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a huge blow to Democrats as the party's presidential nominees had carried the state in every election from 1992 to 2012. Biden <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2020-vs-2016-electoral-college-maps-trump-biden-clinton-president-2020-11">flipped</a> the state back into the Democratic column in 2020, winning by roughly 3% over Trump.The state has largely been a bright spot for the party since the 2020 election.Last year, Democrats swept the state up and down the ballot, with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, state Attorney General Dana Nessel, and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson all winning reelection, while the party also captured full control of the state legislature. With the current Democratic stranglehold over state politics in Lansing, they're looking to 2024, when Biden will be on the ballot and the party is looking to defend the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow.But Democrats are experiencing some turbulence.The United Auto Workers union is on strike against the "Big Three" automakers — Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis — after worker contracts expired late Thursday. At the moment, only three plants (a Ford factory in Wayne, Michigan; a GM assembly plant in Wentzville, Missouri; and a Stellantis Jeep plant in Toledo, Ohio) have workers who have gone on strike as the union continues to push company leaders for higher wages and stronger benefits.Biden, who calls himself "the most pro-union president in American history," on Friday expressed sympathy for union workers and called on the companies to share their profits with workers."No one wants to strike," Biden said during his remarks at the White House. "But I respect workers' right to use their options under the collective bargaining system, and I understand the workers' frustration."The strike has the potential to hurt the economy in a region where Biden has sought to highlight his work on the issue. The president has <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/09/14/joe-biden-speech-attacks-trump-maganomics/70854205007/">struggled</a> in polling when it comes to voter sentiments on his handling of the economy, and he has aggressively pitched his economic message in recent months.Biden on Friday dispatched acting Labor secretary Julie Su and White House economic advisor Gene Sperling "to offer their full support for the parties" in the contract talks.Susquehanna Polling &amp; Research polled 700 registered Michigan voters from September 7 through September 12; the survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

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