<ul class="summary-list"><li>Roughly 9% of <keyword id="11050730" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="subprime-auto">subprime auto</keyword> borrowers were more than 60 days delinquent in the fourth quarter.</li><li>Such borrowers are at the highest risk of default and tend to hold vulnerable financial positions.</li><li>The government froze student-loan interest and evictions, but there's little relief for those with <keyword id="35527" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="auto-loans">auto loans</keyword>.</li></ul>The pandemic's uneven economic fallout is now showing up in car loan payments - especially in their absence.More than 9% of subprime auto borrowers - those classified as having a higher risk of default - were over 60 days delinquent in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to TransUnion data cited by <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/risky-borrowers-are-falling-behind-on-car-payments-11617615001?mod=hp_lead_pos5">The Wall Street Journal</a>. That means a lot of people just can't pay off their <keyword id="35521" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="car-loans">car loans</keyword> right now.That share is the highest since 2005, just before a wave of mortgage defaults sparked the global financial crisis. Separately, 10.9% of subprime borrowers with car loans were more than 60 days overdue in February, up from 10.7% in January and a sixth straight monthly gain.It's the latest warning sign of the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/k-shaped-recovery-recession-worse-for-bottom-better-for-top-2020-11">uneven, "K-shaped" economic recovery</a> from the pandemic in which low-income Americans, women, and minorities who faced disproportionate economic pain in early 2020 have lagged more fortunate Americans as the country slowly reopens. It's been visible in everything from unemployment rates to the wealth gap, and car loans can serve as critical indicators for widespread economic damage.Aside from student loans and mortgages, auto purchases are the largest payments many Americans make. Inability to pay down loans or leases could reveal economic fragility and a looming financial crisis.The federal government has passed more than $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus to pad against the virus' economic pain. Direct payments and expanded unemployment benefits were largely used to pay down debts, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-stimulus-checks-savings-pay-debts-federal-reserve-cares-act-2020-10">according to Federal Reserve research</a>. A freeze to student loan payments and a federal eviction moratorium staved off other financial pressures.Yet those saddled with car loans and leases have received little support. Such borrowers are at the whim of private banks and lenders, many of which continued to demand payments during the recession. Subprime borrowers face the greatest risk, as they tend to be in more vulnerable financial positions.The rising share of delinquent subprime auto borrowers presents a new risk at a pivotal moment for the country. March economic data showed the recovery <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-outlook-jobs-report-march-recovery-challenges-infrastructure-gdp-growth-2021-4">picking up steam throughout last month</a>. The government jobs report published on Friday added to bullish sentiments, with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/march-jobs-report-916000-payrolls-unemployment-rate-economic-recovery-infrastructure-2021-4">the 916,000-payroll increase</a> trouncing economist forecasts.The strong progress marks just the base of the mountain, however. The country is still down 8.4 million jobs since the pandemic began, and that doesn't include misclassification or Americans who dropped out of the labor force. Accounting for those groups <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/march-jobs-report-real-unemployment-rate-payrolls-hiring-labor-market-2021-4">brings the sum to 14.3 million</a>, according to Insider calculations.With so many still out of work and COVID-19 variants spreading, risks to the nascent recovery remain. A slew of auto-loan defaults could exacerbate the downturn further and freeze the rebound just as it accelerates.

People have stopped paying their car loans, and it shows millions are struggling in this economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Biden is set to announce the largest-ever boost to <keyword id="730276" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Food-stamps">food stamps</keyword> on Monday, the NYT reports.</li><li>The average monthly benefit will rise to $157 per person from $121. That's about 40 cents per meal.</li><li>A 15% boost to food stamps was set to lapse on September 30, but Biden's move offsets that.</li></ul><keyword id="1533678" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="President-Joe-Biden">President Joe Biden</keyword> is expected to announce the largest-ever boost to food stamps on Monday, permanently increasing aid for the roughly 42 million Americans on the program.The average monthly benefit will climb to $157 per person from $121, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/15/us/politics/biden-food-stamps.html">The New York Times</a> reported, citing an administration official. That translates to an increase of roughly 40 cents per meal. For a family of four, the maximum benefit will rise to $835 per month, up about 21% from the pre-pandemic limit.The increase will take effect on October 1.The move is one of the ways Biden can increase aid for Americans without Congressional approval. The <keyword id="6423212" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="agriculture-department">Agriculture Department</keyword> will increase payments through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (<keyword id="24754" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="snap">SNAP</keyword>) by updating its list of foods needed for a healthy diet.Biden's increase ends a process that began in his first days in office. In a late January executive order, the president called on the <keyword id="134457" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="USDA">USDA</keyword> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-will-implement-executive-actions-to-provide-relief-to-americans-2021-1">to review the Thrifty Food Plan</a>, which includes the list of foods that determines SNAP payments. The administration argued the plan didn't accurately reflect households' nutritional and financial needs.The food plan was originally set to be updated by 2022, but the Biden order sped up that process and is now set to bring higher benefits before the end of the year.<h2>The fiscal cliff looms large</h2>The announcement comes just weeks before enhanced <keyword id="11871661" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="snap-benefits">SNAP benefits</keyword> were set to lapse at the end of September. Congress approved a 15% supplement to the program at the end of last year, and Biden's move will offset that boost's expiration and leave SNAP beneficiaries with permanently higher payments.The September deadline was part of a larger set of expirations known as the "fiscal cliff." A slew of pandemic-era support programs was set to end in September, with Republicans arguing the economic recovery made such aid obsolete.Some, like <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-extends-student-loan-debt-payment-freeze-pause-extension-borrowers-2021-7">the freeze to student loan payments</a>, were recently extended to avoid a sudden pullback in government support. Others, like the federal eviction moratorium, weren't re-upped and have raised concerns around reversing aid while virus cases rebound. The Biden administration renewed some parts of the eviction ban in a last-ditch effort earlier in August, but legal battles risk canceling the extension.The boost to food stamps hasn't come without its share of backlash. Ranking members on the House and Senate Agriculture Committees asked the Government Accountability Office last week to review the White House's process for updating the Thrifty Food Plan.The administration will publish the results of its review soon and is prepared to brief lawmakers on the matter, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/15/biden-food-stamp-benefits-snap-504915">Politico</a> in a statement.

Biden's about to raise food stamps to $157 a month from $121 - the biggest boost ever

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US' $5 trillion stimulus was largely effective but left some struggling, <keyword id="45672" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Fed">Fed</keyword> researchers said.</li><li>Using the IRS to send checks left out 12 million people with income below the tax-filing threshold.</li><li>Improving aid programs can drive stronger recoveries this year and after future downturns, the team said.</li></ul>The government's bid to pad against the coronavirus recession was mostly successful, but there are lessons to learn from some key shortcomings, researchers at the <keyword id="1539671" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank-of-Minneapolis">Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis</keyword> said.Congress authorized roughly $5 trillion in spending on various economic relief measures since the pandemic began. Households received support through direct payments, a child tax credit, and expanded unemployment benefits, while businesses got a helping hand from the Payroll Protection Program and near-zero interest rates.Economists largely agree that the various stimulus bills <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-outlook-us-gdp-stimulus-boost-infrastructure-spending-unemployment-bofa-2021-3">accelerated the recovery</a>, but two economists found a handful of ways the policies missed their targets. As Krista Ruffini and Abigail Wozniak wrote in a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/SPEASP21_Ruffini-Wozniak_conf-draft_updated.pdf">working paper</a> dated March 25: "There are several feasible adjustments that could improve the reach and efficiency of these programs in 2021."The problem is with the delivery mechanism, specifically the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).Sending checks through IRS and Social Security Administration infrastructure made for quick deliveries, but the agencies weren't able to easily identify the roughly 12 million non-veteran working-age Americans with income below the threshold for filing federal taxes, the team said.The IRS created a tool for non-filers to petition for their stimulus payments, but the program still presented unnecessary hurdles. The agency should use information from other support programs like Medicaid and SNAP to identify some of those Americans and send checks appropriately, the economists added.Similar difficulties emerged in distributing unemployment benefits. Language barriers or inadequate access to technology could've kept some populations from accessing the expanded benefits seen throughout the health crisis, the team said. Unemployment insurance claims would have been 23% higher if recipiency rates were the same throughout the state as they were in wealthier areas, the team said.Other tenets of the support packages simply can't be evaluated yet, they added. Most states approved eviction moratoriums early in the pandemic to help struggling Americans avoid homelessness. The federal moratorium and state freezes are still in effect, but it's still too early to see whether the rules truly prevented evictions, according to the economists. Data on evictions and homes at the highest risk are scarce, as are statistics on how households covered other housing expenses like utilities.Improving aid programs can drive a stronger recovery in the near term and avoid similar pitfalls in future downturns, the economists said."From a macroeconomic perspective, leaving out the most vulnerable households could have ramifications for the broader economic recovery, as these households have the highest marginal propensity to consume," they added.

The government's $5 trillion stimulus gamble mostly paid off - but missed poorer Americans along the way

Welcome back to <a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/10-things-in-politics">10 Things in Politics</a>. <a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/10-things-in-politics">Sign up here to receive this newsletter</a>. Plus, download Insider's app for news on the go - click <a href="https://apps.apple.com/app/apple-store/id554260576">here for iOS</a> and <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.freerange360.mpp.businessinsider">here for Android</a>. Send tips to <a href="mailto:bgriffiths@insider.com">bgriffiths@insider.com</a>.Here's what we're talking about:<ul><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-midterms-covid-afghanistan-filibuster-reconciliation-democrats-trump-2021-9">Democrats on Capitol Hill are worrying about Biden</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-generals-say-they-advised-keeping-2500-troops-in-afghanistan-2021-9">Top generals say they advised keeping troops in Afghanistan</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/publishers-advertisers-keyword-blocking-climate-crisis-news-2021-9">The economics of climate news are getting more complicated</a></li></ul>With Phil Rosen.<hr />​​1. WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: The honeymoon is over. Some Democrats are increasingly worried about their prospects next year as Joe Biden navigates a critical week for his presidency. His struggles come as progressive lawmakers like Sen. Bernie Sanders, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-sanders-aoc-progressives-100-days-vaccines-stimulus-minimum-wage-2021-4">who praised Biden's early leadership</a>, are threatening a key part of his domestic agenda.Here's what people are saying about it all:A top Democrat says his party is fearing the future: "​​The bed-wetters, nervous Nellies - they're out in force," said Jim Manley, a longtime Senate aide. "It's probably hard to find a Democrat on Capitol Hill that isn't dissatisfied with the administration for some reason right now."<ul><li>Pollsters are cautioning that it's too early for any sweeping conclusions: "My advice to my clients is, 'Yeah, it's worrisome that Biden's job rating has declined, but we've still got 14 months to go before the midterms,'" the Democratic pollster Brad Bannon said.</li><li>Biden has been counted out before: You only have to go back to early 2020 to find some party elites <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/08/us/politics/joe-biden-new-hampshire.html">wondering whether he could win the party's nomination</a> let alone the general election.</li></ul><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-biden-infrastructure-reconciliation-government-shutdown-debt-ceiling-deadlines-recession-2021-9">This week will show where a lot of things stand</a>: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is pressing forward on a nearly $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure plan that Biden considers a crucial part of his domestic agenda. But for now, intraparty disputes mean its passage is in question. The government could also shut down Thursday night, and without action the US is thought to be weeks away from a debt default.<ul><li>The latest on where things stand on the Hill: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bernie-sanders-infrastructure-house-progressives-tank-bill-nancy-pelosi-2021-9?_ga=2.216027158.1815160031.1632704905-1311350499.1611066322">Sanders urged House progressives to tank the legislation</a> unless Congress passed the Democrats' massive $3.5 trillion overhaul of social programs. But centrist Democrats like Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema continue to have major concerns about the $3.5 trillion package, meaning the chance of progress this week seems slim.</li></ul><hr />2. Some services will freeze if the government shuts down: Social Security checks should keep coming. The Department of Health and Human Services plans to continue any pandemic-related activities if government funding runs out Thursday night, but within two days it would be forced to furlough more than 36,000 employees - about 43% of its staff. National Parks, many of which are experiencing record demand, could shut down, though it's unclear which ones would be affected. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happens-if-the-government-shuts-down-covid-social-security-2021-9">Read more about how the federal government is preparing for a shutdown</a>.<hr /><div type="image" title="Gens. Mark Milley and Kenneth McKenzie and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin." height="1000" width="2000" msid="86611646" hostid="261"></div>3. Top generals say they asked to keep troops in Afghanistan: Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and other top commanders testified to senators that they had recommended maintaining 2,500 US troops in Afghanistan. Their answers raise questions about Biden's claim to ABC News that he did not recall his military advisors recommending that number. But neither Milley nor US Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth McKenzie would say whether they directly told Biden about their concerns. They also refused to blame Biden for his decision. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-generals-say-they-advised-keeping-2500-troops-in-afghanistan-2021-9">More from what top commanders told lawmakers</a>.<hr />4. Former aide says Trump acted tough on Putin only for the cameras: The former White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham's forthcoming book is said to describe Donald Trump as only <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-pretended-to-be-tough-with-putin-for-the-cameras-book-2021-9">pretending to be tough on Russian President Vladimir Putin</a> during a 2019 meeting. The Washington Post, which obtained an early copy, reported that Grisham also wrote that Trump once called her to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-asked-stephanie-grisham-confirm-penis-wasnt-small-book-2021-9">confirm that his penis wasn't small or shaped like a toadstool</a>. A different aide was said to be called "The Music Man" because he was tasked with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/max-miller-music-man-trump-showtunes-calm-down-grisham-book-2021-9">playing Trump's favorite show tunes</a> to calm him down.<ul><li>There even may be an answer to Trump's bizarre 2019 trip to Walter Reed: Apparently, he was getting a routine colonoscopy. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-skipped-anesthesia-to-not-give-pence-temporary-power-book-2021-9">But Grisham reportedly wrote that Trump refused to get anesthesia so he wouldn't have to temporarily make Vice President Mike Pence president during the procedure</a>.</li></ul><hr />5. A major problem could be looming for news on the climate crisis: Publisher sources told Insider that some advertisers were seeking to keep their ads from appearing next to climate-related news articles. This could become a bigger problem in the coming months as newsrooms invest more resources into covering the climate crisis. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/publishers-advertisers-keyword-blocking-climate-crisis-news-2021-9">Read more about how advertisers are avoiding stories that mention innocuous terms such as "carbon footprint," "greenhouse gas," and even "climate change."</a><hr />6. Stocks continue to tumble: The Nasdaq 100 plunged more than 2% on Tuesday, extending its two-day loss to more than 3%. Interest rates are surging amid a rise in inflation, and that's fueling a rotation out of high-growth tech stocks and into more cyclical stocks in the financials and energy sectors. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nasdaq-falls-treasury-yields-big-tech-stocks-inflation-stock-market-2021-9">More on what's behind the slide</a>.<hr />7. China is working behind the scenes to save Evergrande: The debt-saddled property developer Evergrande is poised to get some relief from Chinese state-backed firms as Beijing pressures government-affiliated companies and developers to buy its assets. Sources told Reuters it was a sign China may not directly bail out Evergrande. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-negotiates-state-firm-purchase-of-evergrande-assets-2021-9">More on what's next for the world's most indebted company</a>.<hr />8. Experts aren't sure why evictions didn't spike: Many saw a national crisis in the making when the Supreme Court struck down a federal ban on evictions, but a month later major cities are seeing little or no change in the number of evictions, The Washington Post reports. Eviction filings in Cleveland, Memphis, Charleston, and Indianapolis are well below pre-pandemic levels. Tenant advocates say some renters could be choosing not to fight evictions in court, which would affect the data. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/09/28/eviction-cliff-moratorium-rental-assistance/">Here's where things stand nationally for renters</a>.<hr />9. Elon Musk has taken his trolling of Jeff Bezos to another level: Musk said he'd remind Bezos where each of them stood on Forbes' billionaires list by sending the former Amazon CEO a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-jeff-bezos-silver-medal-worlds-richest-person-2021-9">"giant statue of the digit '2'" and a "silver medal."</a> Per Forbes, Musk has once again topped Bezos as the world's richest person. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-elon-musk-rivalry-history-timeline-2020-7">Take a look back at the 15-year feud between the world's two richest people</a>.<hr /><div type="image" title="squid game" height="2577" width="3866" msid="86611648" hostid="261"></div>10. Netflix says "Squid Game" could become its biggest hit of all time. The new Korean-language series will "definitely" be Netflix's most popular non-English series, co-CEO Ted Sarandos said. The show has gained global popularity, with data from Parrot Analytics indicating "Squid Game" was the second-most in-demand series in the world, just behind "Sex Education." <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-squid-game-on-pace-to-be-biggest-hit-show-2021-9">Plus, the upstart series already has a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score</a>.<hr />Need a break? Try your luck <a href="https://www.insider.com/play-the-insider-crossword-puzzle-2021-9">at today's Insider Crossword</a>.Today's trivia question: Former President Barack Obama just <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/barack-michelle-obama-presidential-library-groundbreaking-chicago-2021-9">broke ground on his presidential library in Chicago</a>. Presidential centers can have some pretty cool artifacts in their collections. Some aren't even related specifically to the presidents. In fact, some of the Hoover library's most requested items are related to a beloved children's book series. Can you guess which one? Email your answer and a suggested question to me at <a href="mailto:bgriffiths@insider.com">bgriffiths@insider.com</a>.<ul><li>Yesterday's answer: A Chicago TV studio hosted the first televised US presidential debate <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/debating-on-television-then-and-now-59429581/">on September 26, 1960</a>.</li></ul>

10 Things in Politics: Dems worry Biden's blowing it

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Insider spoke with four <keyword id="12737161" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="working-moms" source="Orion">working moms</keyword> to ask about what they want this <keyword id="13848043" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="mothers-day" source="Orion">Mother's Day</keyword>.</li><li>One, an eviction defense attorney, said she wants a night in a hotel with a massive bathtub.</li></ul>The past year has been especially tough on working <keyword id="13346449" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="moms" source="Orion">moms</keyword>. After dealing with challenges from <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-parents-arent-getting-jobs-barriers-return-to-work-pandemic-2022-3">school closures</a> to the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/parents-joining-labor-force-need-flexibility-and-other-benefits-2022-3">lack of affordable childcare</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-moms-share-thoughts-on-returning-to-the-office-2021-9">return-to-office requirements</a>, moms deserve a day of relaxation and doing exactly what they want. Insider spoke with four working moms about the last year of their lives, and how they're hoping to celebrate and what they really want for Mother's Day.The following stories are based on conversations with the sources. Their statements have been edited for length and clarity.<h2>'Fresh air and roller skates'</h2><div type="image" title="Shay L.," height="666" width="888" msid="91385024" hostid="261"></div>Shay L., 45, is a fellowship coach in Washington, DC, and has three kids aged 9, 13, and 18.The last year of my life has been a whirlwind of ups and downs. My former partner of eight years (my kids' dad) moved back to his hometown right after the shutdown in early 2020, so I was adjusting to single parenthood. On top of the pandemic, I was working full-time from home with three kids attending school remotely. Then in July 2021, I had a hysterectomy to resolve recurring fibroids.During my recovery from surgery, I met and fell in love with someone amazing. That August, my oldest child went off to college, and in October my father fell ill in a foreign country and died alone. After my uncle died of cancer in December, I spent a restorative Christmas in Puerto Rico with my boyfriend. This year, I want simplicity for Mother's Day. I want sunshine. I want fresh air. I want fun. I want <a href="https://www.saksfifthavenue.com/product/c7skates-icon-donna-quad-holographic-roller-skates-0400014825332.html">these roller skates</a>. I saw them and they looked fun and whimsical and reminded me of going roller-skating in San Francisco when I was younger. More than anything, I want to be surrounded by people that love me and want the best for me.<h2>'A hotel with a massive bathtub'</h2><div type="image" title="Kelly Barnett" height="621" width="828" msid="91385025" hostid="261"></div>Kelly Barnett, 39, is an eviction defense attorney for the elderly and disabled in Palo Alto, California, and has one son aged 11.The past year has been the most difficult year of my life — and this is coming from someone who went to law school at night as a single mom. I got married in August and moved with my husband and son from San Francisco to Palo Alto.At the time, I was waking up at 5 a.m. to get my son to school in San Francisco by 7 a.m., would then commute for two hours to work in Modesto, and wouldn't get home until after 9 p.m. I'd miss dinner and bedtime stories and began to feel burned out from the long hours. It was awful. My husband is an incredible partner and loving father. Even though he also works as a chemistry professor, he was able to take over a lot of the responsibilities of child raising and housekeeping. Still, no parent should have to do it all. We'd also begun trying to expand our family, which hasn't gone well at all. No one could have prepared me for the disappointment of not being able to conceive. The commute proved unbearable, so I had to leave my cushy job in tech for a position at a nonprofit. My new job is fantastic, but it pays a lot less and the work is intense. We're responsible for keeping vulnerable senior citizens and people with disabilities housed when their landlords are trying to kick them out. We really love our clients and want to do whatever we can to help them, from the work we do in the courtroom to satisfying their landlords demands by coming in with trash bags and cleaning out their units. For Mother's Day, I always feel guilty about only wanting a super basic thing like a massage and pedicure. But god damn, those things are hard to come by. If this was a dream Mother's day, after the spa I might check into a hotel with a massive bathtub and order room service. After some amazing meal, I'd hop into my pajamas and go straight to bed! <h2>'A day alone to spend gardening'</h2><div type="image" title="Erin Kray Melissa petro" height="715" width="953" msid="91385026" hostid="261"></div>Erin Kray, 38, is a social service administrator in Cleveland, Ohio, and has one son aged 5.I live in Cleveland where the final spring freeze can be as late as April 30, so Mother's Day is one of the first days it's safe to start planting outside without the danger of frost. As a mother who gardens, this gives the holiday a special meaning. Gardening is a little like raising children — you can plant and prune and pick and weed, but ultimately it all grows up doing its own thing and you can only hope what you sow turns out OK and survives the winters.Finding time to garden by myself without interruptions is a treat. Sure, I can pull out a dandelion here or there while chasing around my 5-year-old, but I especially cherish being able to garden alone and find my focus. I work in homeless services, so the pandemic was a level of hell we hadn't ever imagined, in an already incredibly difficult field. 2021 was somehow just as chaotic as 2020. The garden for me is a place of stillness and centering away from the stressors of work.For Mother's Day, I'd like a day by myself to go to the garden store and then time to tinker around in my garden alone. Just let me frivolously buy another perennial I don't need, spend some time listening to trash podcasts, and get my hands dirty.<h2>'Noodles and a pink rose bush'</h2><div type="image" title="Magda Pecsenye" height="720" width="960" msid="91385027" hostid="261"></div>Magda Pecsenye, 49, is a management strategist in Detroit, Michigan, and has two sons aged 16 and 20.I know a lot of parents struggled through the pandemic, but for me, the last few years have been a gift. If lockdown had happened 10 or 15 years ago I'd have been so stressed, but because my children are older, I was able to spend time with them without the pressure that comes with looking after little ones. I train people in my proprietary management process, so I've been working from home since forever. The only difference for me these past couple years was that everyone else has been working from home, too. And my kids were home — in school all day online — so it was nice because we could meet for lunch and then just go back to our respective Zoom meetings. It's a lot of fun when your kids grow into fully-formed, mostly-independent people. My boys are both so incredibly self-directed. Sure, my younger one would sometimes stay up too late playing video games and we'd have a talk, but as long as he could wake up in time to log in to school, it was fine. This Mother's Day, all I want is for my kids to take me to our favorite place for noodles. And I want them to buy me a pink rose bush and plant it for me. I really love having kids old enough to do these kinds of things! I know a lot of moms prefer to spend the day away from their children but really, I don't need a break from my boys. Now that they're teenagers, I hardly ever see them — even when they're at home!

4 working moms share what they really want for Mother's Day

<img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5e8e02e915ea4b418d1cce05-2400/a%20pedestrian%20walks%20past%20graffiti%20that%20reads%20rent%20strike%20wednesday%20april%201%202020%20in%20seattle%20washingtonap%20phototed%20s%20warren.jpg" alt="A pedestrian walks past graffiti that reads " /><ul class="summary-list"><li>As of April 5, just 69% of people had paid their rent for the month of April, according to data from the National Multifamily Housing Council.</li><li>By the same time last month, 82% of renters had paid their rent for the month.</li><li>While cities and states have put a pause on eviction, there have been growing calls for leaders to freeze rents amid the ongoing pandemic.</li><li>Even as cities and states across the country announce halts on evictions, people who can't pay their rent are also accruing late fees with no idea where they'll get the money to eventually pay off their debts.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>Just around 70% of tenants paid their rent for the month of April - meaning about a third of renters did not pay rent to their landlord this month, according to data from the <a href="https://www.nmhc.org/research-insight/nmhc-rent-payment-tracker/">National Multifamily Housing Council</a> and a group of companies that collect data about real estate.According to the NMHC, as of April 5, just 69% of people had paid their rent for the month of April. By March 5, 2020, 81% of renters had paid their rent for the month. In April 2019, 82% of renters had paid their rent for the month."The COVID-19 outbreak has resulted in significant health and financial challenges for apartment residents and multifamily owners, operators and employees in communities across the country," Doug Bibby, president of NMHC, said in a press release. "However, it is important to note that a large number of residents met their obligations despite unparalleled circumstances, and we will see that figure increase over the coming weeks."The NMHC rent tracker includes data from 13.4 million units and is updated weekly, the organization said. The data is updated weekly.Cities like New York, Washington, DC, and Los Angeles, and some states around the country have put a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-outbreak-pushes-local-governments-to-freeze-home-evictions-11584892859">moratorium on evictions</a> amid the global pandemic, but haven't gone as far as pausing rent. More than <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-benefits-insurance-workers-furlough-coronavirus-economy-states-2020-4">10 million people</a> filed for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks of March.On March 18, the Department of Housing and Urban Development announced it was temporarily <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hud-halts-evictions-and-foreclosures-coronavirus-2020-3">suspending evictions and foreclosures</a> for people living on its properties nationwide.Calls for a nationwide rent strike have increased as proponents say that even amid halt on evictions, people who can't pay their rent are also accruing late fees with no idea where they'll get the money to eventually pay off their debts."While shelter-in-place is in effect, we shouldn't have to choose between rent payments, and affording food and medicine, because we can't," Jackson Freasier, who did not pay his April rent in Austin, Texas, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/tenants-across-country-calling-rent-strikes-1496565">told Newsweek</a>. "We don't think anybody should be pushed out of their homes especially in a time of crisis like this." New York City officials, including Mayor Bill de Blasio, have urged Gov. Andrew Cuomo to sign a statewide stimulus package that would allow renters in New York, the state hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, to use their <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mayor-endorses-rent-relief-plan-for-immediate-finanical-aid-2020-4">already-paid security deposits</a> to cover their April rent.The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trillion-coronavirus-rescue-package-economy-stimulus-benefits-checks-obama-impact-2020-3">$2.2 trillion federal stimulus package</a> passed last month did not include any relief for renters.Do you have a personal experience with the coronavirus you'd like to share? Or a tip on how your town or community is handling the pandemic? Please email <a href="mailto:covidtips@businessinsider.com">covidtips@businessinsider.com</a> and tell us your story.And get the latest <a href="/coronavirus-business-impact">coronavirus analysis and research</a> from Business Insider Intelligence on how COVID-19 is impacting businesses.<a href="#"><img alt=" " src="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/re/rentpaymenttrackerforwebsite/RentPaymentTracker/1_rss.png" style="border: none" /></a>

Around a third of US tenants didn't pay their April rent

Welcome to <a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/dispensed-daily">Dispensed Daily</a>, your daily dose of <keyword id="6354525" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="healthcare">healthcare</keyword> news from Business Insider's healthcare editor Lydia Ramsey Pflanzer and the healthcare team. <a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/dispensed-daily">Subscribe here to get this newsletter in your inbox every weekday.</a>Hello,Today in healthcare news: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sean-slovenski-walmart-health-strategy-plans-to-go-national-2020-8">Walmart's big healthcare plans in Florida</a>, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/6-reasons-why-telehealth-is-here-to-stay-ceo-jason-gorevic-2020-8">why the telehealth boom is here to stay</a>, and how to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-know-about-trumps-stimulus-executive-orders-2020-8">make sense of President Donald Trump's executive orders</a>. I'm your host of today's <keyword id="6265204" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="dispensed">Dispensed</keyword> Daily, Andrew Dunn, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/andrew-dunn">the healthcare team's pharma and biotech reporter</a>.<h3><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sean-slovenski-walmart-health-strategy-plans-to-go-national-2020-8"><div type="image" title="Walmart Health" height="1198" width="1598" msid="77486071" hostid="261"></div></a></h3><h3><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sean-slovenski-walmart-health-strategy-plans-to-go-national-2020-8">Walmart is moving past its experimental phase in healthcare and plotting a massive expansion into Florida as the retail giant looks to take on the $3.6 trillion industry</a></h3><ul><li><keyword id="80487" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="walmart">Walmart</keyword> in 2019 started a massive push into healthcare to gain a bigger slice of the $3.6 trillion US healthcare industry.</li><li>The company set up <keyword id="9739811" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="walmart-health">Walmart Health</keyword> centers in Georgia, offering services like primary care, counseling, and dentistry.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sean-slovenski-walmart-health-strategy-plans-to-go-national-2020-8">BI's Lydia Ramsey Pflanzer spoke in July with Sean Slovenski, who left his role as Walmart's president of health and wellness in August.</a></li></ul><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sean-slovenski-walmart-health-strategy-plans-to-go-national-2020-8">Read the full story from Lydia Ramsey Pflanzer here&gt;&gt;</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/verily-ceo-vowed-to-end-siblng-rivalry-with-google-health-2020-7"> </a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/6-reasons-why-telehealth-is-here-to-stay-ceo-jason-gorevic-2020-8"><div type="image" title="media American well telehealth" height="2667" width="3556" msid="77486073" hostid="261"></div></a><h3><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/6-reasons-why-telehealth-is-here-to-stay-ceo-jason-gorevic-2020-8">6 reasons why the telehealth boom is here to stay, according to the CEO of $16 billion Teladoc</a></h3><ul><li><keyword id="1477984" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="telehealth">Telehealth</keyword>'s rise has been swift and undeniable.</li><li>This has most recently been seen in Teladoc's record $18.5 billion plan to purchase Livongo, a chronic care management company.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/6-reasons-why-telehealth-is-here-to-stay-ceo-jason-gorevic-2020-8">Teladoc CEO Jason Gorevic told BI six reasons why Teladoc, and telehealth more broadly, is here to stay.</a></li></ul><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/6-reasons-why-telehealth-is-here-to-stay-ceo-jason-gorevic-2020-8">Read the full story from Blake Dodge here&gt;&gt; </a><h3><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-know-about-trumps-stimulus-executive-orders-2020-8"><div type="image" title="donald trump executive order" height="1393" width="1857" msid="77486076" hostid="261"></div></a></h3><h3><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-know-about-trumps-stimulus-executive-orders-2020-8">$200 billion in short-term aid, but no checks for individuals or small-business help: 3 Wall Street analysts lay out exactly what you need to know about Trump's coronavirus orders</a></h3><ul><li>President Donald Trump signed four <keyword id="2790780" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="executive-orders">executive orders</keyword> over the weekend to help make up for congressional inaction on coronavirus stimulus legislation. </li><li>The measures aren't as broad as a stimulus bill would be, but analysts predicted they would help some people in the short term.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-know-about-trumps-stimulus-executive-orders-2020-8">The executive orders will suspend the payroll tax, boost unemployment payments, defer payments for federal student loans, and consider freezing evictions.</a></li></ul><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-know-about-trumps-stimulus-executive-orders-2020-8">Read the full story from Kimberly Leonard here&gt;&gt;</a>More stories we're reading:<ul><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-russia-has-coronavirus-vaccine-daughter-despite-concerns-development-2020-8">Putin announced that Russia approved a COVID-19 vaccine — and gave it to his daughter — despite serious concerns over its safety</a> (Business Insider)</li><li><a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/10/winter-is-coming-as-flu-season-nears-americas-window-of-opportunity-to-beat-back-covid-19-is-narrowing/">Winter is coming: Why America's window of opportunity to beat back Covid-19 is closing</a> (Stat News)</li><li><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-10/covid-vaccine-don-t-count-merck-out-of-the-race-just-yet?sref=3qGOTMF4?sref=3qGOTMF4">Merck Bets On a One-Shot Vaccine in Race With Its Faster Rivals</a> (Bloomberg)</li><li><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/technology/talkspace.html">Talkspace, the online therapy platform, didn't adequately protect client privacy and used burner phones to boost app store ratings</a> (The New York Times)</li></ul>I'm wondering about the future of trendy changes in healthcare. Telehealth, coronavirus vaccines, a massive boom in biotech fundraising — how permanent do you think this new environment will be? Let me know your thoughts: <a href="mailto:lramsey@businessinsider.com">adunn@businessinsider.com</a>.<a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/dispensed-daily">Subscribe to this daily email here.</a>- Andrew

Why the telehealth boom may be here to stay

<img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5e6a45cb54f25c2c4939efea-1280/ap19155744724465.jpg" alt="Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" />Jacquelyn Martin/AP ImagesRep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez<ul class="summary-list"><li>Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is pushing for a significantly more robust federal government response to the coronavirus pandemic as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi struggles to strike a deal with the GOP. </li><li>The House is preparing to vote on Thursday on a coronavirus relief bill that would provide Americans with paid sick leave, food assistance, free coronavirus testing, and more substantial unemployment benefits. </li><li>"This is not the time for half measures," Ocasio-Cortez tweeted on Thursday. "We need to take dramatic action now to stave off the worst public health &amp; economic affects."</li><li>Democrats are attempting to bring Republicans on board with their legislation - which doesn't include Ocasio-Cortez's far-reaching proposals - but the White House and GOP lawmakers are resisting it.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other progressive lawmakers are calling for a significantly more robust federal government response to the coronavirus than has so far been proposed by both Democrats and Republicans. The House is preparing to vote on Thursday on a coronavirus relief bill that would provide Americans with paid sick leave, food assistance, free coronavirus testing, and more substantial unemployment benefits. But Ocasio-Cortez pushed for a more sweeping response, including expanding Medicare or Medicaid to cover all Americans, a freeze on evictions, a universal basic income, ending work requirements for food assistance programs, criminal justice reform, and freezing student debt collection. "This is not the time for half measures," she <a href="https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1238082295359328256">tweeted</a> on Thursday. "We need to take dramatic action now to stave off the worst public health &amp; economic affects. That includes making moves on paid leave, debt relief, waiving work req's, guaranteeing healthcare, UBI, detention relief (pretrial, elderly, imm)."Ocasio-Cortez argued that the expansion of unemployment benefits wouldn't help the many millions of Americans, including tipped and contracted workers, who are suffering economically as a result of the pandemic but aren't necessarily losing their jobs. <h2>A fight over the coronavirus response</h2>Democrats are attempting to bring Republicans on board with the legislation, but the White House and GOP lawmakers are resisting it.House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy called the bill "completely partisan" and "unworkable." Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell called the legislation "an ideological wish list that was not tailored closely to the circumstances."But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has remained defiant. <img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5e6a5cd7e4f9fe6443088ae4-2400/50c68d61bb87db6f59bfcd23b5ac128e.jpg" alt="House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of Calif., is followed by reporters as she walks on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, March 12, 2020. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)" />Associated PressHouse Speaker Nancy Pelosi of Calif., is followed by reporters as she walks on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, March 12, 2020. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)"We cannot slow the coronavirus outbreak when workers are stuck with the terrible choice between staying home to avoid spreading illness and the paycheck their family can't afford to lose," she said in a Wednesday statement.On Thursday morning, Pelosi told reporters Congress wouldn't leave DC without passing legislation to address the pandemic and resulting economic crisis. (Congress is scheduled to go on recess next week). "We're bringing this bill to the floor," she said. Meanwhile, the president has proposed a massive fiscal stimulus centered on a temporary Social Security payroll tax cut that would add about $1 trillion to the national debt - more costly than both the 2008 Wall Street bailout and the 2009 stimulus bill designed to combat the Great Recession. There is widespread bipartisan skepticism about the cost and effectiveness of Trump's proposal and it would face an uphill battle in the Democratic-controlled House. Critics say the payroll tax cut wouldn't be targeted enough and would disproportionately help higher-income Americans. After calling for unity during an address to the nation on Wednesday night, Trump attacked Pelosi on Thursday morning for refusing to back his plan."Nancy Pelosi all of a sudden doesn't like the payroll tax cut, but when Obama proposed it she thought it was a brilliant thing that all of the working families would benefit from because if you get a paycheck, you're going to take home more money," he tweeting, quoting a host of "Fox and Friends." <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fighting-nhl-hockey-violence-sports-code-referee-2017-2">Why fighting is allowed in pro hockey - and why the NHL has no plans to ban it</a></h3> <iframe class="bijwplayerclass" src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/CYSyhgc4-CEZHWCBG.html" width="100%" height="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="auto" style="margin:0px;"></iframe>

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez demands the government distribute a universal basic income and implement Medicare for all to fight the coronavirus

<ul class="summary-list"><li>President <keyword id="6354484" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Donald-Trump">Donald Trump</keyword> said he "may end" an Obama-era fair <keyword id="35061" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="housing">housing</keyword> regulation designed to eliminate housing segregation because Trump said it is "having a devastating impact on these once thriving Suburban areas."</li><li>The Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) regulation, put in place in 2015 by the Obama administration, was designed to "foster inclusive communities that are free from discrimination."</li><li>In January 2018, the Trump administration suspended the mandate in early 2018 until 2020, saying that it "wasn't working well," citing a statement from the Department of <keyword id="868044" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="housing-and-urban-development">Housing and Urban Development</keyword>.</li><li>The move did not formally repeal the fair housing rule, and the argument reopened in early 2020 when HUD Secretary Ben Carson issued a proposal to revise and essentially eliminate the AFFH mandate in January of this year.</li><li>Fair housing advocates slammed the move, saying the revised regulation proposed by HUD "is not a rule to affirmatively further fair housing."</li></ul>President Donald Trump threatened to overturn an Obama-era fair-housing regulation meant to eliminate discrimination, claiming that it "is having a devastating impact on these once thriving Suburban areas."In a late-night <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1278136326647406593">tweet</a>, Trump announced he was reviewing the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) mandate, a federal regulation put in place in 2015 by the Obama administration to strengthen the Fair Housing Act established 1968."At the request of many great Americans who live in the <keyword id="6356371" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="suburbs">Suburbs</keyword>, and others, I am studying the AFFH housing regulation that is having a devastating impact on these once thriving Suburban areas," the president wrote in a tweet Tuesday night. "Corrupt Joe Biden wants to make them MUCH WORSE. Not fair to homeowners, I may END!"The AFFH regulation is designed to aid the effort to "overcome historic patterns of segregation, promote fair housing choice, and foster inclusive communities that are free from discrimination," according to the Housing and Urban Development <a href="https://www.hudexchange.info/programs/affh/">website</a>.In January 2018, the Trump administration suspended the federal regulation requiring communities to combat housing segregation until 2020, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/upshot/trump-delays-hud-fair-housing-obama-rule.html">The New York Times</a> reported."Early in this administration, HUD embarked upon a top-to-bottom review of the department's rules and regulations," the agency said in a statement at the time, according to The Times report."As part of this regulatory review, HUD asked the public to offer comment on those rules that might be excessively burdensome or unclear," the agency said. "What we heard convinced us that the Assessment of Fair Housing tool for local governments wasn't working well."The move did not formally repeal the fair housing rule, and the argument reopened in early 2020 when HUD Secretary Ben Carson issued a proposal to revise and essentially eliminate the AFFH mandate in January of this year."Mayors know their communities best, so we are empowering them to make housing decisions that meet their unique needs, not a mandate from the federal government," Carson said in a <a href="https://www.hud.gov/press/press_releases_media_advisories/HUD_No_20_002">statement</a> at the time."Having said that, if a community fails to improve housing choice, HUD stands ready to enforce the Fair Housing Act and pursue action against any party that violates the law," he added.Fair housing advocates slammed the revised proposal to the AFFH regulation. Lisa Rice, president and CEO of the National Fair Housing Alliance, told <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/hud-s-fair-housing-policies-could-promote-further-racial-discrimination-n1118636">NBC News</a> in a January interview "what HUD has released is not a rule to affirmatively further fair housing.""It significantly weakens fair housing compliance, entrenches segregated housing patterns, and continues the status quo in which some communities are strengthened by taxpayer-supported programs and amenities while other neighborhoods are starved and deprived of opportunities," Rice said.Trump's attack on AFFH came amid housing uncertainty for renters amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Millions across the US have lost their job or been furloughed, leading to the subsequent struggle of being able to afford housing.Some states have attempted to lessen the economic blow of the pandemic to Americans by proposing rent freezes and moratoriums on evictions.

Trump threatens to overturn a fair housing regulation designed to help 'overcome historic patterns of segregation' saying it has a 'devastating impact' on the suburbs

FULL INTERVIEW: Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti says the worst is yet to come, and warns other mayors to shut their cities down now before it's too late

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Roughly 10 million Americans are unemployed, yet hiring slowed sharply in April as the US reopened.</li><li>The labor-shortage trend has less to do with too few workers and more to do with rethinking labor.</li><li>The pandemic and stimulus led Americans to reevaluate work - and demand higher pay for it.</li></ul>Workers were tired before the pandemic. Now they're reaching a breaking point."These guys are just dumbasses if they actually think that the UI is the problem and not the wage," Matt Mies, an unemployed 28-year-old, told Insider.He was referring to the dozens of Republican governors who have cited a so-called labor shortage, which they've blamed on the "disincentive" created by an expanded federal <keyword id="6358907" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="unemployment">unemployment</keyword> benefit from President Joe Biden's stimulus package. The leaders, who govern nearly half of the 50 states, have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/republican-states-cutting-unemployment-benefits-expanded-300-weekly-biden-stimulus-2021-5">moved to cancel the benefit early</a>, stripping it <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-benefits-republican-governors-canceling-workers-lose-pandemic-aid-2021-5">from millions</a> within weeks.Economists had largely expected jobless Americans would rush back to work as vaccines rolled out and the country reopened, but that all changed on May 7, when the government's monthly payrolls report showed <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/april-jobs-report-266000-payrolls-unemployment-rate-labor-market-recovery-2021-5">much-weaker-than-expected job gains</a> of 266,000 in April. That seemed to confirm the labor shortage was real.Mies, who was a ground-crew worker in Hollywood before the pandemic, said most jobs like his had moved out of the area, but that's not the problem. "I just think that UI has just at least fixed everyone's brain enough to see how f---ed up the wages are," he said.He was one of several unemployed Americans Insider spoke with who said the "labor shortage" was an opportunity for America to rethink what work looks like. They said they weren't looking to go back to the way things were, and millions more may agree with them - about 10 million Americans are unemployed, compared with right before the pandemic.Some jobless Americans say it's as simple as wanting higher pay after years of declining buying power. For others, expensive childcare and health issues are placing work lower on their list of priorities. Americans are also looking for better labor conditions after working from home sparked a societywide reassessment.The president wants this rethink to happen. "Instead of workers competing with each other for jobs that are scarce, we want employers to compete with each other to attract workers," President Joe Biden said in a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wage-hikes-labor-market-shortage-positive-hiring-employers-recovery-biden-2021-5">speech Thursday</a>. "That kind of competition in the market doesn't just give workers more ability to earn a higher wage, it gives them the power and demand to be treated with dignity and respect in the workplace."But the opposite view is that work should and will go back to what it was in 2019, and the wages on offer aren't up for negotiation."What has happened in our society, where a paycheck isn't enough incentive to go to work?" Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin told Insider. "We supplanted that incentive with the incentive to stay home, and we need to end that incentive." Johnson also dismissed the idea that businesses needed to raise wages, saying, "Why would anybody need an additional incentive to go to work?"The incentives have always been there: to take a paycheck, to have the dignity of earning your own success and providing for your family."Those incentives may no longer be attractive enough. Economic data suggested that while demand for workers was robust, Americans didn't seek out work as experts had anticipated they would. Job openings <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jolts-job-openings-march-record-hiring-rate-labor-market-shortage-2021-5">soared to a record-high 8.1 million</a> in March as more businesses looked to hire through reopening. The food-services and accommodation sectors - two of those hit hardest by the pandemic and related lockdowns - added the most openings. Yet the April jobs numbers showed little of that demand being serviced.Work needs a rethink, but the country isn't ready for it.<h2>Pay was too low well before COVID-19 struck</h2>For decades, the typical American's wage growth was weak by historical standards. The situation was dire even before the global financial crisis and the slow subsequent recovery, which lagged expectations and left millions unemployed for years. Economic growth stagnated, and below-target inflation hinted the country was saddled with consistently weak demand.Then the virus hit.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/restaurant-owners-service-employees-staff-covid-pandemic-unemployment-2021-5">Low-wage workers</a> were sent home by the pandemic, and if they were able to successfully navigate the unemployment system, they had a steady income, no inconsistent schedules, and life away from occasionally demanding customers. Thank the US government's massive stimulus spending - roughly $5 trillion - for that big reset.There is strong upward pressure for wage for the first time in decades. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said ahead of the April jobs report that wage growth would be a telling sign of a "really tight <keyword id="409455" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="labor-market">labor market</keyword>." And grow, wages did. Average hourly earnings rose $0.21 in April alone, roughly doubling the typical one-month increases from before the health crisis."Everybody should get a living wage," Scott Heide, an unemployed 35-year-old in Florida, told Insider. He said people getting more money staying home than working was "outrageous," but not for the reasons that labor-shortage critics cite. "I think if employers paid their employees a living wage, that would make a huge difference," he said.<div type="image" title="Scott Heide" height="830" width="1104" msid="83087318" hostid="261"></div>Heide was referring to what economists call the reservation wage, which tracks the wage levels at which Americans would take jobs. The reservation wage for workers without a college degree jumped 26% year over year in March, according to the <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/labor#/expectations-job-search17">Federal Reserve Bank of New York</a>. That compares with average annual growth of about 2% over the past six years. The wage now comes out to $29.56 an hour, compared with an hourly rate of $23.45 just one year prior.The data made it clear: Americans wanted better compensation for their work, and they were willing to wait for it. It's not just low wages dragging on the labor market's recovery. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/schools-closures-and-elderly-covid-fears-behind-labor-shortage-ubs-2021-5">UBS says</a> childcare and COVID-19 fears from older people are more to blame for labor shortages than enhanced unemployment. Experts <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/april-jobs-report-shows-women-are-still-struggling-women-employment-2021-5">previously told Insider</a> that it was a new phase of recovery, where the need for parents to have a safe place to drop off their children is becoming even more clear. Karen Lucas, a 53-year-old single mother in Pennsylvania who is unemployed, said <keyword id="414451" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="unemployment-benefits">unemployment benefits</keyword> were addressing childcare costs and that's an important reason people have stayed out of the workforce.<div type="image" title="Karen Lucas" height="481" width="640" msid="83087319" hostid="261"></div>"If my children were, let's say, 5 years old - thankfully they're 16, so they're independent - I would not be able to work," she said. Twelve years ago, she said, she paid over $1,600 a month for her children's care.When it comes to those parents opting to stay home, "I can't fault them. I don't think it's a bad decision. If I were a parent with 5-year-olds, you better believe I would be doing that," she said.She said the situation showed the need for businesses to provide childcare or childcare incentives for their employees.<h2>The unemployment benefit changed how some Americans view work</h2>The only thing Mies misses about his old Hollywood job is the paycheck.He's still working as a technical director for a nonprofit theater organization that serves people with disabilities, which he said he's always enjoyed more than his other work. During the pandemic, he was able to get a small paycheck from them - he hadn't been paid before then - but was able to remain on unemployment. At its peak, he said he made about as much on unemployment-insurance benefits as he had before.That made him realize he was working himself "to the bone," he said, adding that he wanted to return to work, but not hard labor for long hours.Even after the weekly federal supplement shrank to $300 from $600, the aid program <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-insurance-benefits-average-wages-labor-market-hiring-worker-shortage-2021-5">was still competitive with low-paying jobs</a> across the country. The combination of state UI and the federal boost surpassed the average wages of Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming, Insider calculated, and in the rest of the US, unemployment benefits replaced an average of 76% of states' average wages.While UI might not deter Americans from work, it encouraged many to seek more rewarding jobs - or, at least, work in different fields. In February, 66% of unemployed Americans in a <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/02/10/unemployed-americans-are-feeling-the-emotional-strain-of-job-loss-most-have-considered-changing-occupations/">Pew Research Center survey</a> said they had "seriously considered changing their occupation or field of work."Separately, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retail-workers-leaving-quit-over-nightmare-customers-low-pay-2021-5">Insider's Mary Meisenzahl reported</a> on retail workers leveraging the labor situation to leave their old jobs - and the drain that came with them - for better-paying positions. The drain was likely extreme. <a href="https://onefairwage.site/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/OFW_TheTippingPoint_3-1.pdf">Research</a> from the advocacy group One Fair Wage found that female tipped workers experienced more harassment and lower tips during the pandemic.Wage hikes at large-scale employers, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-raising-wages-workers-pandemic-hiring-chipotle-costco-target-walmart-2021-5">from Amazon to Chipotle</a>, suggest businesses faced at least some pressure from the government benefit, and from a large first mover on raising wages, the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-minumum-wage-amazon-salaries-worker-pay-labor-market-shortage-2021-5">tech giant Amazon</a>. <h2>Larger structural shifts and a September 'fiscal cliff'</h2>Other sectors, like academia, may see more of a structural shift on the other side of the pandemic. In the past year, higher education lost an unprecedented 650,000 jobs, <a href="https://www.chronicle.com/article/a-brutal-tally-higher-ed-lost-650-000-jobs-last-year?cid=gen_sign_in&amp;cid2=gen_login_refreshresh">Dan Bauman at The Chronicle of Higher Education reported</a>, citing estimates from the Labor Department. That could represent a major sector emerging from the pandemic permanently disjointed - with a lot of collateral damage.Jennifer, whose last name is known to Insider but withheld for privacy reasons, fears she is one example. She's 42 and lives in southern Virginia. After finishing her Ph.D., and starting a new job in January 2020, she felt she was on her way up in the world. Then the pandemic hit, and her job was gone in March. It took months to finally get the call she needed to receive her unemployment benefits. She said she had been surviving for six months off credit cards.Throughout her time on unemployment, she said, "there's been no highs, with quite a few lows." About every three weeks, she panics about her situation, she said, "because I accidentally take a bird's-eye view of my life and it's terrifying."She said she was "frozen in time." Every day, she wakes up, logs on to her computer, and searches for at least two jobs that she can apply to.<div type="image" title="job application" height="2487" width="3316" msid="83087321" hostid="261"></div>"I manage to wake up every single day saying it could be today, could be today. I could get that email. I could get that phone call. It could be today."Such validation needs to arrive in the next three months at the latest. Even in the 27 states that haven't prematurely ended the federal UI benefit, the boost is set to lapse in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stimulus-senate-democrats-broker-deal-on-unemployment-benefits-2021-3">September</a>. That includes programs like <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/how-many-weeks-of-unemployment-compensation-are-available">Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation</a>, which extended eligibility for benefits and the number of weeks people could receive them. When both of those vanish, their recipients will no longer have any UI. Payment freezes, such as the federal eviction moratorium and a pause to student-loan payments, will also expire in the fall. This spate of deadlines has been referred to as a "fiscal cliff," with millions of Americans on the brink of losing several forms of economic relief.Jennifer's experience shows that work may not be rethought for everyone who needs it. "The last thing I want is sympathy," she said. "I'm just so angry. I need someone to validate that I'm a human being."

The truth behind America's labor shortage is we're not ready to rethink work

<img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5e8612901378e36f7542fd16-2121/gettyimages-1081427644.jpg" alt="mother and daughter at home" />Cavan Images/Getty ImagesThe author is not pictured.<ul class="summary-list"><li>Like <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unemployment-filings-record-labor-market-coronavirus-2020-4">millions of others</a>, I lost virtually all my income this month when the coronavirus shut down normal life across the US. As a freelance journalist, I could no longer go out into the community to do my job.</li><li>My daughters are also home from school, so my attention is focused on caring for my kids.</li><li>I've paused all my bill payments for the month and have a bit of cash in my bank account, but I'll soon be <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/do-i-qualify-for-unemployment-how-to-apply-for-benefits">applying for unemployment benefits</a> for the first time ever. I have a lot of questions and no way to know what the future holds.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/yourmoney?utm_source=bullet">Read more personal finance coverage</a>.</li></ul>My personal and professional lives ground to a halt on Friday, March 13. Two days prior, the final pair of class days before spring break were cancelled at my daughter's boarding school; then, as my younger daughter's public school unexpectedly closed, the very rural place where I live (two hours from both Boston and New York City) began buzzing about social distancing.Within a matter of days, I watched my freelance writing career evaporate like fog burning off in the morning sun.Community events I was slated to cover were cancelled at swift clip, individuals with whom I was scheduled to sit down and chat were afraid to do so, and advertising sales, instrumental in floating the publications for which I write, plummeted overnight.Thankfully I filed my taxes early this year and (finally) sold my engagement ring, which means I'm not in terrible financial shape. Read: I've got enough money for groceries. And that's about it. <h2>I've paused many of my bills</h2>In the 21 days since we've been holed up at home, I've deferred my mortgage payments, my car payments, and my minimum monthly credit card payment. April and May present a reprieve from tuition payments, and because my oil supplier is an acquaintance, he answered the phone on the second ring and graciously agreed not to cash the last check I sent.This leaves enough cash for the barest essentials: groceries, our cell phones, internet, and electricity. Now, I wait.<h2>I'll need all the help the CARES Act has to give</h2>My main strategy for remaining sane involves distancing myself from the media. We don't have a TV, I've trashed the Facebook app on my phone, and I curate my information updates carefully.Last week, I was relieved to hear that the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-signs-coronavirus-economic-relief-aid-bill-checks-for-americans-2020-3">federal CARES (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security) Act</a> had been signed into law and had both increased unemployment benefits and expanded eligibility to include freelance and gig workers, a group to which I belong. The $2.2 trillion stimulus package, intended to keep businesses and individuals afloat during a freeze in the majority of Americans' lives, will be a proverbial lifeline when the benefits finally trickle down to Massachusetts.As of today, a message from Gov. Charlie Baker asks people like me - historically eclipsed from receiving unemployment - to please be patient while his office awaits further instruction from Washington, D.C.When CARES benefits do trickle down to individual states, the bill adds <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stimulus-package-unemployment-benefits-increase-2020-3">$600 per week from the federal government</a> on top of whatever base amount a worker receives from the state; boosted payments will last for four months.The bill also adds 13 weeks of unemployment insurance, another benefit freelancers and contractors haven't been able to apply for in the past.Finally, the bill creates a temporary Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, through the end of this year, to help those who have lost work as a direct result of the public health emergency. In my case, the stay-at-home orders and social distancing guidelines mean I can't go out into the community and do my job as a reporter.<h2>I'm trying to remain calm about the future</h2>Yes, I am a single mom of two; still, I'm choosing not to panic. There is a roof over our heads - Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and HUD will suspend foreclosures and evictions for 60 days in response to COVID-19 - and food on the table. I just purchased a CSA share from a local farm. It's ironic: I can't really afford the up-front cost, but I also can't afford not to secure a reliable food source going forward.I'm optimistic that government relief checks will arrive soon (I'm slated to receive $1,700 as my ex-husband and I each claim one of our minor children as dependents) and expanded unemployment benefits will trickle down to the state level before my checking account is dry. Despite being a prudent planner, I don't have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-money-to-save-in-emergency-fund-rules">a six-month cushion</a> to cover my living expenses as experts advise (I'm a newly single mom of two who freelances, remember?). When funds do arrive - and I'm confident they will - I will be faced with another challenge: prioritizing my current expenses with no knowledge of the future.I've never before applied for, or received, unemployment benefits. I'm definitely not ashamed to avail myself of this resource, but I'm not entirely sure how it will work. How long will it be before I can apply? What can I expect insofar as "red tape" is concerned? Will I get a lump-sum disbursement? Do I turn funds received over to my aforementioned bills, or work to create a cushion lest this economic crisis continue ad infinitum?I do not know the answers to any of these questions, but I do know what my approach will be: one step at a time. It is never the crisis itself - rather how we respond to said crisis - that defines us. Especially when uncertainty swirls around in great gusts.I am certain of one thing: the number of COVID-19 cases in the United States and available respirators at my local hospital is entirely out of my control. But my response to the chaos? That is entirely within my control. I'm committed to stabilizing the atmosphere inside my home (that I'm incredibly thankful to have) and turn my attention toward cultivating connection and communication with my kids. Heating season is almost over, and my daughter's school tuition payments don't resume until June. This could be over by then, right? Fingers crossed.<ul class="read-more-links"><li>More <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/yourmoney">personal finance</a> coverage</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-open-high-yield-savings-account-now-interest-rates-down">4 reasons to open a high-yield savings account while interest rates are down </a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-open-wealthfront-cash-account-savings">It took less than 10 minutes to open a high-yield cash account with Wealthfront and earn more on my savings</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-buy-a-house-with-no-money-down-home-loans">How to buy a house with no money down </a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/when-to-save-money-in-high-yield-savings">When to save money in high-yield savings</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-rewards-credit-cards">Best rewards credit cards</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reasons-to-get-life-insurance-you-havent-thought-of-yet">7 reasons you may need life insurance, even if you think you don't</a></li></ul>Do you have a personal experience with the coronavirus you'd like to share? Or a tip on how your town or community is handling the pandemic? Please email <a href="mailto:covidtips@businessinsider.com">covidtips@businessinsider.com</a> and tell us your story.And get the latest <a href="/coronavirus-business-impact">coronavirus analysis and research</a> from Business Insider Intelligence on how COVID-19 is impacting businesses. <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-its-like-to-do-your-own-taxes-for-the-very-first-time-2018-2">Tax Day is now July 15 - this is what it's like to do your own taxes for the very first time</a></h3> <iframe class="bijwplayerclass" src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/tgwmPsgy-CEZHWCBG.html" width="100%" height="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="auto" style="margin:0px;"></iframe>

I've lost nearly all my income to the coronavirus and have to apply for unemployment benefits for the first time in my life. Here's what the next few weeks look like.

America is no longer as alarming to its foes or reassuring to its friends.
America's allies are nervous. With Russia grabbing territory, China bullying its neighbours and Syria murdering its people, many are asking: where is Globocop? Under what circumstances will America act to deter troublemakers? What, ultimately, would America fight for?
The answer to this question matters. Rogue states will behave more roguishly if they doubt America's will to stop them. As a former head of Saudi intelligence recently said of Vladimir Putin's land grab in Ukraine: "While the wolf is eating the sheep, there is no shepherd to come to the rescue."
Small wonder that Barack Obama was asked, at every stop during his just-completed four-country swing through Asia, how exactly he plans to wield American power. How would the president respond if China sought to expand its maritime borders by force? How might he curb North Korea's nuclear provocations? At every press conference he was also quizzed about Ukraine, for world news follows an American president everywhere.
When it came to formal pledges of reassurance, Mr Obama did not stint. In Tokyo he offered fresh guarantees that the defence treaty between Japan and America covers all Japanese-administered territory, including the Senkaku islands, which China also claims. While visiting some of the 28,000 American troops stationed in South Korea, he vowed that his government would not hesitate to use "military might to defend our allies". In the Philippines Mr Obama signed a new, ten-year agreement to give American forces greater access to local bases.
While Mr Obama was in Asia on April 28th American officials unveiled new sanctions against Russia: visa bans and asset freezes for Putin cronies such as Igor Sechin, the boss of Rosneft, a big state oil firm. On the same day a final detachment of American paratroopers arrived in Estonia, bringing to about 600 the number of American soldiers now on exercises in Poland and the three Baltic countries (all of which fear Russia). Whereas Russia tried to mask its deeds in Ukraine by deploying troops with no insignia, the whole point of America's action was to show off the Stars and Stripes on the uniforms.
<div class="KonaFilter image-container click-to-enlarge"><div class="image"><a title_source="The Economist" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5363cf566bb3f718314453fa-960/screen%20shot%202014-05-02%20at%201.03.37%20pm.png"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5363cf566bb3f718314453fa-882-629/screen%20shot%202014-05-02%20at%201.03.37%20pm.png?maxX=800" border="0" alt="world of pain" width="800" /></a>The Economist</div></div>
<h3>Philosopher-in-chief</h3>
Yet even as he did his duties as planetary peacekeeper, Mr Obama could not help pondering the limits of American power, out loud. There are "no guarantees" that sanctions will change Mr Putin's thinking over Ukraine, he mused on April 25th. He said it would be in Mr Putin's interests to behave better, but he might not.
In recent years, Mr Obama went on, people have taken to thinking that hard foreign-policy problems may actually have a definitive answer, typically involving the use of force. Mr Obama disagrees. "Very rarely have I seen the exercise of military power providing a definitive answer," he told an audience in Seoul.
In the Philippines he was asked whether his handling of crises from Ukraine to Syria might have emboldened America's enemies. He retorted that his tactics "may not always be sexy", but have strengthened America's global position. Many of his hawkish critics, he said, were the same people who supported the "disastrous" war in Iraq and who "haven't really learned the lesson of the last decade."
Such sentiments may appeal to war-weary voters back home. Most Americans say that defending the security of allies is "very important", but just 6% would use force over Ukraine, says a Pew poll, and huge majorities oppose action in Syria. For countries that rely on American protection, this is troubling. The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, for example, feel exposed (see Charlemagne). Like Ukraine, they were once part of the Soviet Union, have Russophone minorities and doubt that Mr Putin respects their borders.
For Toomas Hendrik Ilves, the president of Estonia, the legal order preserving Europe's borders changed utterly when Russia invaded Crimea. The European Union's meek response has made it a laughing stock. "There is nothing left to hold on to," declares Mr Ilves.
Except NATO. Unlike Ukraine, the Balts are members of the NATO military alliance, under whose founding treaty an armed attack on any member is considered an attack on all. This means America is committed to protecting its European allies. And for now, they believe it will. "I do believe that the borders of NATO are a red line. I have faith in that," declares President Ilves. If any NATO ally tried to block a response to an armed attack, NATO would, in effect, cease to exist, he says.
In recent years, Mr Obama has scaled back plans for missile defence in Europe and reduced America's military presence there to two brigade combat teams. But Russia's aggression has had the unintended consequence of giving NATO a renewed sense of purpose: hence those American paratroopers in Poland.
François Heisbourg, of the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique in Paris, reckons America would still fight to defend the Baltic states: "The moment a Russian tank crosses the bridge at Narva [on Estonia's border with Russia] it will be zapped." But America's commitment to defend Europe is undermined by the Europeans' tendency to freeload, which American taxpayers resent. Few allies except Britain meet the NATO target to maintain military spending at 2% of GDP.
In the short term there are two military concerns. One is that the Baltic states are difficult to defend. Their airspace is entirely covered by Russian missiles. A greater worry is that Russia's aggression might be stealthy, as in Ukraine. "Mr Putin does not do frontal attack; he does judo," says Mr Heisbourg. What would America and NATO do if Russia starts to undermine the Balts by stirring unrest among ethnic Russians there and deploying mysterious armed men? NATO was not designed for such contingencies.
<h3>Middle Eastern gloom</h3>
Nowhere is the perception of growing American timidity so strong as in the Middle East. Eleven years ago America conquered Iraq in a matter of weeks. Yet when Mr Obama pulled America's last troops out in 2011, there was little to show for all the lives lost and billions spent. The regime America has left behind in Baghdad is barely friendly.
In the rest of the region the story is not much cheerier. The new government in Egypt ignores American finger-wagging about human rights and buys lots of Russian weapons. In Syria President Bashar Assad was caught red-handed last year gassing his own people, an act that Mr Obama had specifically warned would trigger American punishment. Yet this "red line" was crossed almost with impunity.
There were sound arguments for all these apparent American retreats. Yet the widespread impression in the Middle East is that the lion has turned into a pussycat. Its foes rejoice; its allies bewail their perceived abandonment.
Iraq's leader, Nuri al-Maliki, is chummier with Iran than America. Iran jauntily backs militias and political parties in Iraq. It sends bullets and "advisers" to Syria via Iraqi airspace. It sponsors Iraqi Shia volunteers to fight American-supplied Sunni rebels in Syria.
Of late, America has sometimes taken a back seat to other countries, as with France's intervention in Mali and NATO's in Libya. Or it has simply shied from doing anything much, as in Syria.
Yet reports of the death of American influence in the Middle East are exaggerated. Mr Obama can claim some successes: oil prices are stable, Israel has never been so prosperous or secure and Iran has agreed (under intense pressure) to curb its nuclear ambitions somewhat. Terrorism now poses far more danger within the Middle East than to the rest of the world.
America's regional military bootprint has shrunk, but only from the inflated dimensions of the Bush-era "surge" in Iraq. A constellation of American military bases dots the region, from the 5th Fleet's headquarters in Bahrain to Central Command's massive base in Qatar, to secret airstrips sending drones into the skies of Yemen. No outside power can plausibly replace America there. The Gulf monarchies still rely on American protection, as do Jordan and (to a lesser extent than before) Israel.
The perception of American timidity has yet to do serious damage to American interests in the Middle East. It has, however, spurred allies to look out for themselves. Israel has cultivated military and economic ties with China and India. Gulf states are arming themselves: Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE have all recently ordered huge arsenals.
<h3>Facing China</h3>
Moving to Asia, America has been fighting in Afghanistan for more than a decade now. This year Mr Obama plans to bring home almost all of the more than 30,000 American troops there. It may yet be all of them. Afghanistan's president, Hamid Karzai, has refused to sign an agreement that would allow 5,000-10,000 or so to stay on in non-combat roles. But both candidates in the run-off election to succeed him are supporters of the agreement.
So American boots will still be on the ground, providing targets for insurgents. Even if a broader civil war is avoided, America may find itself an unwilling party to bloodshed. If the American-backed government in Kabul finds itself unable to control swathes of the country, al-Qaeda or other groups with global terrorist ambitions might regroup there, as they might in the ungoverned tribal areas of Pakistan. Should they succeed in staging an attack on mainland America, the cycle might start again: experience shows that to avenge the victims of murder at home, America will fight.
It seems far-fetched to think that America would go to war over the islands known to Japan as the Senkakus and to China as the Diaoyus. Nestling in the East China Sea between the two countries, they are tiny, barren and uninhabited save for hundreds of goats and the elusive "Senkaku mole" (a critter, not a double agent). When America administered the islands from 1945-72, it used them for bombing practice.
Yet Mr Obama has put American military credibility on the line over the Senkakus (even if he did not explicitly promise that the 50,000 American troops stationed in Japan would help fight for them). For more than two years now China has been buzzing the islands by air and sea to challenge Japan's claim of control, and last November included them in an "Air Defence Identification Zone". There is a real risk that an accidental clash might escalate. So these desolate rocks may pose the most immediate test of Mr Obama's "pivot" towards Asia.
The South China Sea sets others. Five countries have claims there that overlap with China's. The Philippines' dispute is the most active. In 1995 China evicted it from one reef, and two years ago from another. America takes no position on sovereignty, but backs Manila's efforts to contest Beijing's claims under international law.
In South Korea 28,000 American troops sit near the border to deter the North Korean regime. Few expect that regime to last for ever (see Banyan). Should it collapse, China, fearing the abrupt arrival of a unified Korea on its borders that is America's ally and stuffed with American armour, might intervene. Loth to upset its erratic ally, China refuses to co-ordinate contingency plans for a North Korean implosion with America.
Both big powers hope that Taiwan's deepening economic ties with mainland China will dampen the island's enthusiasm for formal independence. But as Yan Xuetong, a Chinese scholar, has noted, at least 70% of people on Taiwan still see themselves as "Taiwanese" first, "Chinese" second. One day Beijing's impatience at Taiwan's failure to submit may force America into very difficult choices. A 1979 law binds America's government to deem any attempt at forcible reunification "as a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific Area and of grave concern to the United States".
Would America really go to war with China? China plainly seeks to become the dominant power in Asia. Many Asians doubt that America is reconciled to being number two. That said, many Asians also doubt that America would risk a shooting war with a nuclear power. They point to American silence when China seized the Scarborough shoal from the Philippines in 2012; and to its advice to American airlines late last year to comply with China's air-defence zone over the Senkakus. 
In Asia, as elsewhere, America's allies are boosting their armed forces. Some suspect that America's security umbrella has holes in it. Sotto voce, a Japanese diplomat says Japan has never relied on it--though what he perhaps means is that it no longer does.
Under its pacifist constitution, imposed by America after the second world war, Japan is barred from "collective self-defence", even if it means shooting down a North Korean missile on its way to Hawaii. Its current prime minister, Shinzo Abe, wants to change this. The aim, as one scholar puts it, is to become a "normal" ally, like a NATO member, partly to encourage America to keep defending it, and partly because it is not sure it will.
<h3>The trigger-point</h3>
Mr Obama's hands-off approach dismays the foreign-policy establishment back home. Democrats and Republicans alike chide him for leaving a security vacuum for enemies to fill. Yet others note that he does not want to be the American president who failed to honour a treaty. He chose to deploy ground forces to the Baltics and Poland, when he could have sent only a few ships or planes.
A defender of the president, Ivo Daalder, American ambassador to NATO from 2009-13, suggests that if NATO allies suffered provocations short of an invasion (eg, Russian passports being distributed to Russian-speakers, challenges to Baltic frontiers) more troops, ships and warplanes would be deployed, making America's commitment to collective security ever-more visible. It was also under Mr Obama that NATO finally drew up contingency plans to cover threats to all members.
Kurt Volker, George W. Bush's final NATO ambassador and Mr Obama's first, suggests that--despite Mr Obama's distrust of military force--he would still act if there were a loud enough "domestic outcry." An outright invasion of a NATO ally would trigger such an outcry, Mr Volker says, as would a serious attack on Israel. But short of that, Mr Volker worries that other countries see within Team Obama "a creeping willingness to let things go".
A senior former defence official says that Mr Obama acted slowly in sending reinforcements to NATO members, and would do so again. "I think Mr Putin is going to keep coming until someone stands up to him," says this source. In the case of Russian adventurism inside NATO's borders, he predicts that Team Obama would respond: "I would worry that it would be late. Not too late, but late, and that would send a message around the world."
America's obligations in Asia are "nuanced", says another senior figure. Where American troops are stationed in large numbers--in South Korea, or on the main islands of Japan--the security commitment is "absolute". Under Mr Obama, American forces have pushed back (somewhat) against Chinese sabre-rattling in disputed seas. Should China threaten Taiwan, America would feel a "moral obligation" to send ships or planes to serve as a referee. 
Yet during previous crises, as in 1996, when China tested missiles before a Taiwanese election and America sent warships to the area, even hawkishly pro-Taiwan members of Congress privately told officials "you'd sure as hell better not get us into a war with the Chinese", this source recalls.
A skirmish over the Senkakus would trigger help of some sort, says another veteran of many crises: perhaps early-warning planes to patrol the skies for Japan, and warships to show the American flag. But the American public "would not be excited to go to war over a bunch of rocks".
So much for America's formal commitments. When it comes to other countries and regions, insiders worry that Mr Obama sees the world as a jungle full of thugs, forever causing crises that America cannot fix. His failure to enforce his own "red line" over chemical weapons in Syria gravely damaged his credibility.
Team Obama is divided, with an unhappy State Department under John Kerry desperate to see more help for anti-Assad forces in Syria, while the Pentagon has spent months explaining why extra weapons shipments cannot work. Meanwhile, Mr Obama is described as analysing every option to exhaustion before concluding that inaction is the prudent course.
In a few areas, a toughening of current policies is possible. Mr Obama's guiding principle is to avoid new wars. Because a nuclear-armed Iran might start a war which drags in America, he treats Iranian talks with great seriousness.
There are few overt hawks in Congress: the Republican Party of the Bush era, with its dreams of creating democracies across the world, is a distant memory. But some senators are pushing Mr Obama to take tougher, faster action against Russia. On a visit to Ukraine on April 25th Carl Levin, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, called for harsher sanctions on Russian banks and energy interests.
Bob Corker, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, grumbles that the Russian stockmarket actually rose after the latest American sanctions were announced, suggesting those sanctions are weaker than the world expected. Mr Corker says several senators want the government to examine the pros and cons of permanently stationing American NATO forces in such countries as the Baltic republics. Russia maintains that any such move would breach understandings reached with NATO in the 1990s. But Mr Obama will be under pressure to declare that the world has changed, and ignore Russian complaints.
Some will celebrate the decline of America's ability to deter. But wherever they live, they may find that whatever replaces the old order is much worse. American power is not half as scary as its absence would be.
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