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Indian banks are expected to have steady growth in earnings and returns over the next 3–4 years, according to a recent report by Jefferies. It expects a 13% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in loan growth for banks between FY24 and FY27, helmed by a supportive environment and expected adjustments in interest rates. "We expect steady growth in earnings and stable returns, Over FY24-27, the banks we cover should see 13% CAGRin loans We factor 25-50 bps cut in rates, &amp; depending on timing, NIMs will move," the report said. Depending on the timing, these rate cuts could impact banks' <keyword id="20076541" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-interest-margins" source="keywords">net interest margins</keyword> (NIMs), which measure the difference between interest income generated and interest paid to depositors. The report also notes that banks' net interest income (NII), a critical metric that is reflective of how much a bank earns from its lending, could grow at a steady 12% CAGR, which would support overall earnings growth. <h2>Rate cuts probable next year</h2>Per SBI Mutual Fund's monthly outlook for November 2024, while markets were initially speculating possible rate reductions in December this year or February next year these chances now stand dampened due to two reasons. First, elevated CPI numbers in September, which stood at a nine-month high, underlined the stickiness of food inflation. Secondly, RBI governor Das recently highlighted his hawkish stance at a conference, stating that "rate cuts at this stage would be premature and risky’. The report further adds that February 2025, or even April, would be a better time to discuss repo rate cuts in India. Even <keyword id="19985925" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-credit-growth" source="keywords">bank credit growth</keyword> has continued to outpace deposit growth for two years now. However, they seem to be inching closer in the recent past. For instance, in October 2024, while bank credit growth remained at 12.7%, the deposit growth rate followed closely at 11.8%. This also means that banks are witnessing an elevated bank credit-to-deposit ratio, standing at 77% in October. <h2>Risks in unsecured lending </h2>However, Jefferies noted some areas of caution that could influence growth in other revenue streams, particularly fees. Growth in fees may be at risk due to expected declines in the disbursal of unsecured loans, which generally carry higher interest rates and generate higher fees for banks. October saw stress and defaults rising in the unsecured lending space, prompting the RBI to intervene. As a result, unsecured loans by banks have only grown by 12.1%, the lowest since the pandemic. Despite these risks, the report expects banks' return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) to remain healthy, underscoring the sector's stable profitability potential. The report also highlights that while the Nifty Banks index has risen by 19% over the past year, it has still underperformed the broader Nifty index, which delivered 27% returns in the same period. BSE Bankex has been along similar lines, generating returns worth 19% over one year. While the Nifty banks' index has a YTD (yield to date) of 7.63%, it continues to trail Nifty's YTD of 11.30%

Indian banks to have steady growth in earning over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report

<keyword id="19895437" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment" source="keywords">Investment</keyword> in <keyword id="20300870" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="equity-mutual-funds" source="keywords">equity mutual funds</keyword> surged over five-fold to Rs 94,151 crore in the June 2024 quarter against Rs 18,358 crore a year ago, driven by a strong <keyword id="21477327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-environment" source="keywords">economic environment</keyword>, supportive <keyword id="22575274" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-fiscal-policies" source="keywords">government fiscal policies</keyword>, <keyword id="19900618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investors" source="keywords">investors</keyword> confidence and robust <keyword id="21990858" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stock-return" source="keywords">stock return</keyword>. This has also pushed the industry's assets under management (<keyword id="20019621" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AUM" source="keywords">AUM</keyword>) by 59 per cent to Rs 27.68 lakh crore in June from Rs 17.43 lakh crore a year ago, data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (<keyword id="20090036" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AMFI" source="keywords">AMFI</keyword>) showed. The robust gain in the asset base was also replicated in the growth of investors in equity mutual funds, with the number of folios closing at 13.3 crore, adding an investor base of over 3 crore. The significant gain in equity folios indicates broader participation across investor segments, driven by improved <keyword id="19929245" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-literacy" source="keywords">financial literacy</keyword> and accessible investment platforms, Trivesh D, COO of stock trading platform Tradejini, told PTI. According to the AMFI data, equity-oriented mutual fund schemes invested Rs 94,151 crore in the quarter ended June 2024. This comprises Rs 18,917 crore in April, Rs 34,697 crore in May and Rs 40,537 crore in June. The investment in equity-oriented mutual funds jumped five-fold to Rs 94,151 crore in the June quarter from Rs 18,358 crore in the quarter ended June 2023 and increased 32 per cent Rs 71,280 crore witnessed in the preceding March 2024 quarter. "The confluence of political stability, supportive government policies, and a favourable economic environment has significantly contributed to the impressive inflows into equity mutual funds, signalling a positive outlook for the sector," Trivesh said. Strong macroeconomic fundamentals, bolstered by supportive government fiscal policies like higher-than-budgeted tax collection growth, reduced revenue expenditures, and increased capital spending have helped in increasing the allocation to equity mutual funds, Feroze Azeez, Deputy CEO, Anand Rathi Wealth, told PTI. He further said that investors' confidence in the markets and historically strong returns given by Indian equities with relatively low risk also helped investors to move towards equity mutual funds. Additionally, the shift was further fuelled by a transition from traditional investments like deposits to mutual funds in pursuit of higher returns. "The long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of 11-13 per cent annual returns for Indian equities, and equity mutual funds potentially delivering even higher returns," Azeez said. Within the equity segment, sectoral or thematic category attracted Rs 46,731 crore during the quarter under review, followed by Multi-cap (Rs 10,077 crore), Flexicap (Rs 8,387 crore), Large &amp; Midcaps (Rs 7,948 crore), Smallcap (Rs 7,197 crore) and Midcap (Rs 6,927 crore). Large-cap funds witnessed an infusion of Rs 1,991 crore during the April-June quarter of the current financial year (FY25). Moreover, inflows into the systematic investment plan (<keyword id="19956399" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SIP" source="keywords">SIP</keyword>) have been rising continuously for the past several months. The monthly SIP contributions crossed the Rs 21,000 crore mark in June, with the total inflow reaching an all-time high of Rs 21,262 crore. This shows investors' commitment to disciplined and long-term investing. The fund infusion through the SIP route was Rs 62,537 crore in the April-June quarter of FY25, a remarkable surge from Rs 43,211 crore in the same quarter preceding the fiscal.

Investment in equity mutual funds surge 5-fold to Rs 94,151 cr in June qtr amid robust eco environment

<div type="image" title="Are Indians depositing less money in banks, or more in mutual funds? Turns out, it&amp;#39;s neither of those." msid="113663806" hostid="261" sizebytes="1121785"></div> Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of <keyword id="20202062" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-deposits" source="keywords">bank deposits</keyword> in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialisation of <keyword id="20751315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="household-savings" source="keywords">household savings</keyword> in the country or the rising preference of Indians towards <keyword id="19929240" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="keywords">mutual funds</keyword> and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword> through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by Franklin Templeton, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are household deposits really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. <div type="image" title="Yes, household deposits (as % of total deposits) have dipped, but the drop is far from significant" msid="113663882" hostid="261" sizebytes="306706"></div> Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian households in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and <keyword id="114757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="savings-account" source="Orion">savings account</keyword> deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of Securities Transaction Tax (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell <keyword id="6361918" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-mutual-funds" source="Orion">equity mutual funds</keyword>, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by <keyword id="45369" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equities" source="Orion">equities</keyword> can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the Fed recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day. Do you have insights or personal experience to share on your personal finances or money? Contact us at <a target="_blank" class="c-link" href="mailto:businessinsider@timesinternet.in">businessinsider@timesinternet.in</a>.

Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Justin Lubell, Citadel's Global Equities head, said shorting has been a big driver of returns.</li><li>There's less competition in the space compared to going long on stocks, he said.</li></ul>While some big bets against specific stocks have blown up in hedge funds' faces in recent years, there's still a focus on shorting at Citadel's longest-running equities unit.Citadel Global Equities, which started in 2001 for Ken Griffin's $64 billion firm, has generally made more in its short book compared to its longs in recent years, according to comments from the unit's head, Justin Lubell. Lubell spoke at last week's Robin Hood Investors Conference in New York, and Business Insider reviewed a summary of his comments from someone in attendance.Lubell appeared on a panel with Atreides Management founder Gavin Baker and Lakewood Capital founder Anthony Bozza. The moderator was billionaire Maverick Capital founder Lee Ainslie.Lubell, who has run Global Equities since 2020 after more than a decade at Steve Cohen's Point72, said there's much less competition on the short side. Plenty of managers focus on good long ideas, he said, but not nearly as many put the same time and resources into the short side of the book.Focusing on the short book and seeking out companies to bet against helps investors on his team weather volatility and lets their idea play out over a longer duration, Lubell said.Some hedge funds have abandoned single-stock shorts, instead hedging their portfolios with bets against an index of the market or a basket of stocks. There was a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/d1-dan-sundheim-reddit-gamestop-frenzy-short-strategy-2021-5">reluctance to target</a> specific stocks from some areas of the industry after large bets against video-game retailer GameStop <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/michael-jordan-business-partners-reddit-short-squeeze-2021-1">led to the implosion of Gabe Plotkin's Melvin Capital.</a>Even investors known for bold short bets have moved away from the practice. For instance, Pershing Square's Bill Ackman "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bill-ackman-short-selling-activist-investing-pershing-square-herbalife-markets-2022-3">permanently retired" from activist short selling </a>in 2022. At the end of September, he had 13 long positions and no shorts in his portfolio, according to the publicly traded trust that mimics his hedge fund's holdings. For these reasons, Bozza, who founded Lakewood in 2007, said that those who know how to short stocks are becoming a "dying breed," even though it's easier to find a good short idea than a good long idea.Bozza said it's rare to find an undervalued company in the public markets, but an overvalued company does not receive the same scrutiny.

Why Citadel's longest-running equities unit is focused on shorting stocks

The deluge of funds in sectoral, or <keyword id="20296225" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Thematic-Funds" source="keywords">thematic funds</keyword> continued unabashed in September, with investors pouring in Rs 13,254.63 crore via 183 schemes into this category, as <keyword id="20090036" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AMFI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="AMFI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="AMFI">AMFI</keyword> data showed. In August too, investors had put in Rs 18,117.18 crore via 179 schemes here. The trend has been going strong since July, 2024, which saw <keyword id="20444306" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Sectoral-Funds" source="keywords">sectoral funds</keyword> garner Rs 18,386.35 crores via 174 schemes. In August, 5 new thematic funds were launched on the momentum, which raised Rs 10,202 crore. Last month saw the launch of 4 new sectoral schemes, which garnered around Rs 8,000 crore. However, inflows into <keyword id="21366551" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Equity-Schemes" source="keywords">equity schemes</keyword> fell by 10% in September to Rs 34,419 crore, as compared to Rs 38,239 crore in August 2024. Between April and June 2024, equity <keyword id="19929240" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mutual-Funds" source="keywords">mutual funds</keyword> had seen a total inflow of Rs 94,222.27 crore, out of which inflows in sectoral funds (Rs 46,731.17 crore) alone were a whopping 50%. While the quantum of inflow in equities, and sectoral funds certainly seems to have tapered down a bit, it continues to remain significantly strong, indicating heavy <keyword id="20354507" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Investor-Interest" source="keywords">investor interest</keyword> in this largely risky segment. Over the last year, AMCs have been pumping out more and more NFOs in this space in a bid to get a bigger chunk of investor's money, and also regulations restrict them from launching new schemes under other categories. However, with the ongoing geopolitical concerns in Middle East, and rising prices of crude oil, the equity markets are set for volatile, uncertain times ahead. However. thematic funds have had a good run so far this year, with YTD (yield to date) of 28.69%, and returns worth 44.71% over the past year. Says Deepak Ramaraju, Senior Fund Manager, Shriram AMC, "On the prima facie, it looks like investors are concerned about the valuation, increasing geo-political uncertainty and moderation in earnings and hence, we have seen redemption from funds. But we will have to wait for how the global events play out – like the Chinese stimulus, the Fed Decision and the RBI’s MPC policy stance in the months to come". As such, you should think twice and carefully assess the risks involved before dipping your hands in the gush of sectoral funds right now. While they may be all the rage, identifying the right sector or theme at the right time is a job best done by professionals. <h2>Don't ignore the risks involved</h2>Siddharth Alok, AVP Investments, Multi Ark Wealth-Epsilon Money explains that sectoral funds come with high risk, since they are more vulnerable to sector-specific downturns. This might not suit the risk palate of many investors. "All markets have cycles, where some sectors naturally outperform while some underperform in the short to medium term. For instance, industrial and consumer discretionary sectors may perform well in a growing economy, while defensive sectors like utilities or healthcare may perform better during downturns". "To make the most of your investments in sectoral funds, it is essential to time your entry and exit in these sectors, which is a difficult job for a regular investor", he continued. In order to maximise your returns in thematic funds, either investors i.e. you should understand the dynamics of the underlying sector or theme, or you should have qualified and experienced advisors who can help you take the right decision with regards to such investments. As a matter of fact, you should approach any new funds only after comparing them with similar existing offerings and ensuring their aptness in your portfolio. As an astute investor, you should understand that such funds offer a very high-risk high return investment proposition and may not fit in the portfolio of every investor. Investing in every <keyword id="20498936" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NFO" source="keywords">NFO</keyword> (New Fund Offering) without assessing the sector's viability and future growth, merely on the back of its current hype is unadvisable.

The newest fad in mutual fund multiverse: Sectoral Funds. Here's why you should not over-invest in them

<div type="image" title="For the unversed, trading in futures and options can be akin to setting their hard-earned money on fire" height="900" width="1200" msid="114064202" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;For the unversed, trading in futures and options can be akin to setting their hard-earned money on fire&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Once upon a time, there thrived a wild, wild land. Here, it was all about super high monetary stakes, lightning-fast trade deals, and bucketloads of money shifting hands every single second. This wilderness lured millions of individuals with the promise of super duper high returns. But, at what cost? Welcome to the unforgiving, ultra-risky wild west of <keyword id="19991165" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-equity-markets" source="keywords">Indian equity markets</keyword> called the <keyword id="145718" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Futures-and-Options" source="Orion">futures and options</keyword>. Here, everyone seems to just fly right through the bright red-flagged warnings of financial risks to earn even a fraction of these promised returns. Most burn themselves in the process, but carry on nevertheless, as if nothing ever happened. <h2>Chasing the cloudy profits</h2>The data conclusively proves that every 9 out of 10 individuals only lost their hard-earned money in this land. But hey, what do the numbers know? Some hide their losses out of shame, some out of fear. The proponents, meanwhile, proudly boast unusually high returns on their investments, some open social media channels while others encourage their friends and family to take the plunge. Naturally, news of this unstoppable and humongous en-masse migration to the F&amp;O (futures and options) town has reached sheriff <keyword id="19901201" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SEBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="SEBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="SEBI">SEBI</keyword>, galvanising them into action. After all, it was time to put a leash on this madness and save the common man. The inhabitants of this town doubled in the last 2 years, from 51 lakh in FY22 to 96 lakh in FY24—99.8% of whom were small and mid-income traders. But profits? Well, that's a different, rather completely absent story. <h2>Que Sera Sera, much?</h2>A recent report by SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) that studied profits and losses made by traders in the equity derivatives segment between FY22-24 exposed the mad mania of futures and options trading in India, especially since the pandemic. Per the report, 91.1% of individual traders, or about 73 lakh traders had only lost money trading in futures and options in FY24. Between FY 22-24, over 1 crore traders, or about 92.8% of individual traders, had lost Rs 2 lakh each. But once bitten, twice shy? Well, not in this case. More than 75% of individuals, who had only made losses trading in F&amp;O in FY22 and FY23, continued to trade vigorously in FY24 as well, without any changes in the bottom line, which remained deep in red and negative. So, then all these traders must be uber-rich, with tons of cash and not much care to spare? Nope. 76% of traders in the F&amp;O space in FY24 had an annual income of less than Rs 5 lakh. 2 years ago, their share stood at 71%. And their choice of poison? Options! In FY24, 60% of traders made losses trading in futures, but a whopping 91.5% burnt their funds trading in options. Mind you, futures are riskier than options. With futures, which require significant capital investment, the buyer and seller both are contractually bound to adhere to the pre-determined strike price of the futures or options contract, irrespective of whether the prevailing prices are higher or lower (and thus, resulting in losses for either the buyer or seller). With options, since this adherence ain't necessary, individuals end up taking debt to take highly leveraged positions while trading here. <h2>Scale of the explosion</h2>Anyone who trades even infrequently will tell you that a demat account is the mitochondria or powerhouse of the trading cell. As of August 2024, India had over 17.1 crore <keyword id="20957284" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="demat-accounts" source="keywords">demat accounts</keyword>, which are a prerequisite for trading in the markets. India is the 9th biggest country in the world, in terms of total demat accounts. Did you know that our demat accounts are at par with the entire population of Bangladesh? Talk about scale! Just 4 years ago, in March 2020, this number was a mere 4 crore. Naturally, the total F&amp;O turnover on both <keyword id="20004725" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSE" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="NSE" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="NSE">NSE</keyword> and BSE has hit the roof, and also broken it. As of October 4, 2024, the total futures and options turnover on NSE stood at a massive Rs 4,78,27,27,750.30 crore. Good luck counting the thousands! <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Year </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Total Turnover (Both Futures and Options) (In Rs Crore) </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2020-21 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">64,36,03,951.51 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2021-22 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1,69,52,33,134.47 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2022-23 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3,82,23,26,468.06 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2023-24 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7,99,27,67,152.43 </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table>Source : NSE Another metric that underlines the meteoric growth of trading in India is the collection of STT or <keyword id="20930760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Securities-Transaction-Tax" source="keywords">Securities Transaction Tax</keyword>. As of September 2024, India's STT mop-up had gone past Rs 26,000 crore. Traders have to pay STT whenever they buy or sell any security in the market. So, more trading brings in more STT, and hence, more revenue for the government, so they're not really complaining. After all, this is certainly what they'd call enviable growth. As of August 2023, our STT collection stood at about Rs 21,599 crores. And in FY20-21, India's STT collection had been Rs 16,000 crore. If only our salaries also managed to grow at this rate! <h2>So, what's happening?</h2>Two things. One, it's the big bulls who are raking in all the moolah. And it's the younger lot (those aged under 30) who are propping them up for this. In FY24, 43% of individual traders in the market were less than 30 years of age. In just one year, this number has swelled by 12 percentage points from just 31% of individual traders. But who says ageing is bad? Wrinkles and silver hair seemingly have a propensity of incurring lesser losses in the market. In FY24, only 79% of traders aged above 60 years made losses, as compared to 93% of those aged below 30. Small and mid-income traders, which make up 98% of the total trader base, witnessed average losses per person of Rs 65,000 and Rs 1.5 lakh in FY24 in futures and options, respectively. The winner here? Clearly, the big bulls, who declared an annual income of over Rs 1 crore, ended up with average profits of Rs 96,000 per person this year. <h2>What’s the sheriff up to?</h2>The government has finally swung into action, hiking the STT rate for F&amp;O during this year’s budget. Effective October 1, 2024, the STT on futures stands at 0.02%, up from 0.0125%. For options, it was upped to 0.1% versus 0.0625% previously. Small margins, but huge impact oncoming. Says Puneet Sharma- CEO and Fund Manager at Whitespace Alpha, “SEBI aims to enhance market stability while safeguarding investor interests, reflecting the regulator's intent to balance risk management with market participation”. But this might come with its own share of challenges, too. “Stricter norms around leverage, transparency, and capital adequacy could limit the ability of investors to determine their own risk appetite, thereby stifling innovation in trading strategies. Over-regulation in an environment that thrives on strategic flexibility and creativity could dampen the market’s dynamism, affecting India's competitiveness in the global derivatives landscape”, he observes. SEBI recently came out with a set of guidelines that aim to thwart <keyword id="19972907" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-investors" source="keywords">retail investors</keyword>' participation in futures and options and hinder them from taking undue risks. Here's a quick recap of what's to come for the residents of the F&amp;O town Margin Requirements: To battle the high volatility and chaos which is generally seen on expiry days(i.e the last mandated date, post which an option becomes invalid), SEBI will put in place an extreme loss margin (ELM) of 2% for all open short options on the day of expiry. Translation? Traders will need to pony up more cash upfront, leaving them with fewer funds to take on risky bets. It ain't a choice: No more of one expiry every single day! Going ahead, an exchange like BSE or NSE will just be able to offer weekly expiries, that too, only on one benchmark index, as opposed to an entire buffet it currently offers. At present, NSE offers weekly options contracts for its financial index, bank and midcap indices. But say goodbye to this, and hello to derivatives on only 1 index per exchange. Raising the bar: Effective November 30, 2024, the minimum contract value for index derivatives will be upped to Rs 15 lakh, from the present Rs 5-10 lakh. The hope is that by making it ultra-expensive to enter these trades, investors will be dissuaded from taking on risky trades. Pay upfront: Starting February 2025, those trading in options will have to pay the entire options premium upfront, even before their trades are executed. This is because options generally carry very high leverage, and paying a significant sum upfront can force traders to think twice. Invigilation Pro Max: Starting April 1 2025, to make sure that the number of positions for equity index derivatives does not slyly slip over the mandated limit, especially on expiry days when trade volumes are huge, the exchanges will have to take a minimum of 4 position snapshots randomly. The question is, will these injections of sobriety be enough to calm down the steroid-fed bull of the futures and options market in India? Well, only time and market turnover will tell! For more insights into the financial markets and business news, stay tuned to our site and social media handles. And don’t forget to subscribe to Business Insider India’s newsletters for your weekly dose of Simply Put! Disclaimer: The content on this website is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. We recommend readers consult certified, qualified and registered advisors for professional and personalised financial advice.

SIMPLY PUT: SEBI is on a mission to take on the wild, wild west of futures and options in India. Here’s why, what, and how

<ul class="summary-list"><li>David Kostin is seeing similarities to the dot-com bubble as "superstar" firms boost the market.</li><li>Record-high market concentration will lead to a decade of weak returns, the strategist said.</li></ul>David Kostin is no stranger to the ups and downs of the stock market.The Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist has seen multiple economic boom-bust cycles during his more than 35 years on Wall Street. And right now, Kostin sees two striking similarities between today's market and the dot-com bubble — conditions that could lead to a decade of lackluster returns for the S&amp;P 500 just as they did after 2000, he told Business Insider in an exclusive interview.First, market concentration is at an all-time high, meaning that the performance of the S&amp;P 500 is disproportionately driven by just a few stocks. This is due to the rise of what Kostin calls "superstar" firms with economies of scale, such as the Big Tech companies whose valuations have spiked this year thanks to the development of AI.Today, the 10 largest stocks in the S&amp;P 500 make up 36% of the entire index by market capitalization."We're at a level of concentration in the US market today that we haven't really seen since the tech bubble. It's even more concentrated than it was 20 years ago," Kostin said.In fact, the US equity market is at its highest concentration in 100 years.<div type="image" title="Goldman Sachs US equity market concentration" height="642" width="689" msid="114979384" hostid="261" sizebytes="44834"></div>Risks become less diversified, and volatility increases in a concentrated market, which is why Kostin is skeptical that the largest companies in the index will maintain their premium valuations going forward.Second, Kostin sees a large valuation gap between the top 10 stocks and the rest of the index.The largest 10 stocks in the index trade with a median price-to-earnings ratio of 31. Meanwhile, the other 490 stocks have a median P/E ratio of just 19.<div type="image" title="Goldman Sachs chart showing 10 largest stocks trading at 31x P/E compared to 19x for the rest of the market." height="730" width="882" msid="114979385" hostid="261" sizebytes="38416"></div>That means for the top stocks, the earnings yield — a metric measuring the expected return on investment, calculated by taking the inverse of the P/E ratio — is lower compared to the rest of the market. A stock with a P/E ratio of 31 has an earnings yield of 3.22%, meaning that every dollar invested in the stock would generate earnings per share of 3.2 cents. A stock with P/E ratio of 19 has an earnings yield of 5.26%, meaning that investors are receiving more earnings for every dollar they put in.This gap between the top S&amp;P 500 performers and the rest of the index hasn't occurred since the dot-com bubble."The valuation of the largest stocks in the market have a negative risk premium to bonds, and that has not happened for 20 years," Kostin added.That means the top 10 stocks in the index actually have a negative return in excess of the risk-free <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/bonds">10-year Treasury</a> yields. The 10-year has a nominal yield of 4.28% compared to the top 10's 3.22%, which is approximately a 1% negative risk premium.<h2 id="3daaf9d0-47d8-48dc-b7f5-64d833e2a83c">The next decade</h2>The ultra-high concentrations in the market today happened over several years, so Kostin isn't expecting the market to broaden overnight. But the current disjunction simply isn't sustainable for the long term, he said. Higher concentration is typically associated with increased volatility in the near term and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-why-sp500-decade-weak-returns-goldman-jpmorgan-2024-11">lower returns</a> over long time horizons.That's why Kostin predicts that the S&amp;P 500 will generate a 3% annualized nominal total return through 2034 — well below the index's long-term average of 11%."The S&amp;P 500 has roughly a 72% probability of trailing bonds and a 33% likelihood of lagging inflation through 2034," Kostin and his team wrote in a recent note.<div type="image" title="Goldman Sachs is predicting a decade of low returns." height="442" width="701" msid="114979383" hostid="261" sizebytes="27106"></div>Superstar firms propelled the S&amp;P 500 to new highs in 2024, but maintaining that level of growth in the future will be difficult, especially when valuations are already so elevated, according to Kostin."The expectation of revenue growth for these companies is 20%, and the stocks trade at high multiples reflecting that growth rate. So the risk is ultimately, can the companies deliver on these extremely high levels?" Kostin said. "The evidence is strongly in support of the fact that growth rates for high revenue growth companies tend to fade," he added.Today's valuations price in double-digit growth, but that's not a realistic outcome, in Kostin's view. When sales and earnings growth for the biggest companies eventually cool, these valuations will come down, and the overall index will decelerate as well.Kostin pointed to companies like Intel, Microsoft, and Cisco, which saw incredible runups as investors priced in aggressive revenue expectations during the dot-com heyday. When these companies failed to meet these lofty expectations, valuation multiples compressed significantly.Although Kostin is predicting a decade of lower-than-average growth for the S&amp;P 500, he's still optimistic about the overall state of the economy as the unemployment rate is holding steady at 4.1% and the US consumer is strong.While the overall market is shaping up to see lower-than-expected returns for the next decade, that doesn't mean there aren't pockets of opportunity for investors to seek <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-beat-stock-market-returns-next-decade-goldman-sachs-2024-10">higher returns</a>. As the gap between the largest stocks and the rest of the market subsides going forward, the typical stock is positioned to perform better than the current market leaders.For that reason, Kostin is expecting the S&amp;P 500 equal-weight SPW index to outperform the market-cap-weighted S&amp;P 500.Kostin also identified mid-cap stocks as a big beneficiary of a broadening market. In his view, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-big-stocks-to-buy-unflashy-mid-caps-investing-parnassus-2024-10">mid-cap stocks</a> are much more reasonably valued than the overall S&amp;P 500 and have historically performed well in a rate-cutting environment, making them a compelling investment opportunity.

Goldman's top equity strategist tells BI 2 similarities between today's market and the dot-com bubble — and what it means for your portfolio

The State Bank of India (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sbi" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) in its latest report has asked for <keyword id="20213295" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-reforms" source="keywords">tax reforms</keyword> after concerns were flagged over the recent decline in <keyword id="20202062" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bank-deposits" source="keywords">bank deposits</keyword>. The report says tax Reforms for Deposits can accentuate the banking system's stability and resilience to the next level. SBI attributed the fall in deposits to the varied rates of return offered by different <keyword id="20139443" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment-options" source="keywords">investment options</keyword> for similar time frames and different tax rates on <keyword id="22837794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="returns-on-deposits" source="keywords">returns on deposits</keyword>. The <keyword id="20352499" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-report" source="keywords">SBI report</keyword> said that "<keyword id="20658792" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-treatment" source="keywords">Tax treatment</keyword> of bank and non-bank channels are non-uniform, even as bank deposits have a wider and denser pass-through effect across the populace sensitivity of Deposits on Tax is as much as 7 per cent" The report noted that a bank deposit of Rs 10 lac in a Savings Bank (SB) account at an investment return of 3 per cent would generate Rs 30,000 in returns and after accounting for taxes and exemptions, the <keyword id="22837795" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-return" source="keywords">net return</keyword> would be Rs 16,000. The report adds that the net returns vary significantly if deposits are made in different instruments like <keyword id="21041176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="term-deposits" source="keywords">term deposits</keyword>, short and long-term investments in debt funds, liquid funds or bonds. The tax rates on these deposits also favour saving banks or term deposits. The report illustrates a term deposit of up to one year with the same principal amount of Rs 10 lac at a yield of 6.25 per cent would result in a net return of Rs 50,000 after taxes. But for term deposits exceeding one year the interest rate is higher and with an interest rate of 7.25 per cent, the gross return would be Rs 72,500. After taxes, the net return would be Rs 58,000. The data highlights that similar type of investments for the same period generates significantly different returns because of different tax treatment by the government. Similar variations are observed in other <keyword id="20105084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment-plans" source="keywords">investment plans</keyword> as well. For instance, investments in equity and mutual funds with a 2 per cent dividend income of Rs 10,00,000 generate Rs 20,000, which after taxes the net return is Rs 16,000. However, Short-term investments of less than one year in equity and mutual funds, offering an 11 per cent return generate Rs 1,10,000, with a net return of Rs 88,000 after taxes. This investment if made in Long-term investments of more than one year the return increases to 15% on Rs 10,00,000 and generates Rs 1,50,000 annually. With a lower tax bracket of 12.5 per cent tax on long-term investments and applicable exemptions, the net return is Rs 1,43,750. These variations in returns across different deposits and investment options highlight the complexity and thus investors are choosing the higher return options over the bank deposits which in turn poses a threat to the deposit growth in the banking sector.

Decline in bank deposits because of non-uniform tax treatment on various investment options: SBI report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Adaptive technology lets teachers and students customize lessons for a better learning experience.</li><li>This can help close achievement gaps and promote equity in education.</li></ul>Savannah Marrero was 2 years old when she moved from Texas to Colombia with her family. Three years later, they returned to the Lone Star State, and Marrero fell behind in her education as she readjusted to a US curriculum. Marrero, now 12, told Business Insider that she used the adaptive-learning app <a target="_blank" href="https://uk.ixl.com/">IXL</a> to "learn new skills and refresh forgotten ones in language, math, and science."She was connected to IXL through the platform <a target="_blank" href="https://2hourlearning.com/about-us/">2hr Learning</a>, which uses adaptive tools to compress core academic lessons into two hours daily. Marrero said she must master each skill before progressing, which ensures a thorough understanding of the lessons.MacKenzie Price, the founder of 2hr Learning, said she launched the platform in 2014 after her daughters told her they were too bored and disinterested in traditional schooling. "Adaptive learning matches each student's pace, delivering information without discrimination," Price said. "It's an equitable and scalable solution."<div type="image" title="MacKenzie Price smiles for a headshot." height="2500" width="2000" msid="113132602" hostid="261" sizebytes="194664"></div><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-literacy-ethics-teaching-students-educators-scholars-2024-2">Education is evolving</a> with developments in adaptive-learning technology. These tools collect and use data on each student's performance, progress, and learning style to tailor the learning experience to their proficiency and needs.As the technology develops, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/treeview-extended-reality-artificial-intelligence-software-development-metaverse-2024-8">educators and IT professionals</a> hope that it will help students and teachers use their time and capabilities more efficiently and promote equity.<h2 id="2ea2d0ff-fbda-4145-bc8d-6983d476e9b1">Understanding adaptive technology</h2>Gautam Parasnis, the chief digital officer of the education-software provider Imagine Learning, told BI adaptive technology could create pathways that are more student-centric than traditional methods. "Books don't collect data," he said. But with data, he added, Imagine Learning can "understand learning patterns" and give educators personalized recommendations to help students learn quicker.<div type="image" title="Gautam Parasnis headshot." height="762" width="667" msid="113132599" hostid="261" sizebytes="44176"></div>Say a student who loves baseball is tackling a new math concept; on the student's tablet in the classroom or at home, the system might generate questions centered on baseball statistics or game scenarios. This approach allows the student to practice mathematical skills while engaging with a personal interest. The individualized lesson can help them catch up or, if they're advanced, give them more challenging problems to solve.<h2 id="44e4cfa1-4a8f-439c-86e8-ca7c526aae93">Closing achievement gaps and igniting passions</h2>The Education Recovery Scorecard, a collaboration between Harvard University's Center for Education Policy Research and the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford University, found the pandemic <a target="_blank" href="https://educationrecoveryscorecard.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ERS-Report-Final-1.31.pdf">created a learning loss</a>. This caused students to learn and retain information at a lower level than is age-appropriate (think: a fifth grader reading at a second-grade level). Brian Galvin, the chief academic officer of the learning platform <a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=3544dc2ffdc922c40ad8342c22b052f3ed892d012a54124b6aa222e8e0c7da14&amp;postID=66d8752a0abb17f431692eca&amp;postSlug=adaptive-learning-technology-helping-teachers-students-close-achievement-gap-2024-9&amp;site=bi&amp;u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.varsitytutors.com%2F">Varsity Tutors</a>, said <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pandemic-students-face-economic-struggles-that-exceed-great-recession-2023-6">the learning loss</a> had led to persistent issues, such as students dropping out of school.Galvin told BI that adaptive technology uses specialized algorithms to help teachers identify the learning gaps and skills that students should address and build on. This is especially beneficial for those who struggle with steep learning curves, such as neurodivergent disorders, like dyslexia, or language barriers, which affect immigrant students."Adaptive technology doesn't care what skin color you have, if you're rich or poor, or what your learning style is," Price said. "It is infinitely patient and available all the time to help you."<div type="image" title="Brian Galvin headshot against a purple and blue gradient backdrop." height="1370" width="2460" msid="113132595" hostid="261" sizebytes="43486"></div>Students can also use adaptive technology to explore interests and boost skills in leadership, linguistic and communication development, and financial literacy. For example, <a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=4d60316b2be8c5a718daf9f6a86accce28799dea2a9df80aca70b845fae70835&amp;postID=66d8752a0abb17f431692eca&amp;postSlug=adaptive-learning-technology-helping-teachers-students-close-achievement-gap-2024-9&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.memrise.com%2F">Memrise</a>, a language-learning app with over 70 million users, takes the adaptive-learning approach. Memrise's CEO, Steven Toy, told BI that the platform offers a "full language-learning experience" through customized daily lessons with spaced repetition and a personalized word list that teaches users terminology common to native speakers.<h2 id="a0295ecc-cd43-4f86-ad3f-b6022de0921d">Mitigating inequity issues</h2>Schools in low-income communities often struggle financially, which inhibits them from integrating technology into their curriculum. This disproportionally affects students of color and limits their access to helpful academic tools.Parasnis said that Title I funding, which provides federal financial support to schools with a high poverty rate, is a "critical resource." School districts can use the funds to "purchase technology, provide online tutoring, and address teacher shortages," he added.He added that many states were also boosting grants and adjusting policies to help districts manage their budgets more effectively. For example, some states, such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nysed.gov/essa/carryover-limits">New York</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cde.ca.gov/sp/sw/t1/carryover.asp">California</a>, allow districts to carry over unused Title I funds into subsequent school years.Galvin said programs such as Computers for Learning, which provides refurbished computer equipment to schools and educational nonprofit organizations, also help low-income communities. "Corporate partnerships, including Google and Microsoft, have entire divisions dedicated to classroom education and will provide free or deeply discounted Chromebooks, Surface Pro tablets, and software packages to these school districts," he said.<h2 id="3fe85a01-220d-47cf-95cd-5701af1a7086">The challenges of tech-driven educational tools</h2>While adaptive technology has several benefits, implementing these systems involves a lot of trial and error, and it takes effort to meet the demands of rapid feedback when adjusting or replacing apps, Price told BI."Another concern is the perception of potential limitations," Galvin said. "There's a fear that adapting to a student's current performance level might inadvertently set artificial limits on their potential. The key question is: Can these systems not only adapt to a student's current level but also accelerate their progress to close achievement gaps?"It's also difficult to change the mindset of people who believe in traditional educational models. Price said 2hr Learning hopes to address this by reframing teachers' roles as using technology to embrace students' passions while challenging the learners."The adults in the classrooms are not hand-holding or sitting next to a student but instead teaching them to be self-driven learners and helping them with resources when they are stuck," she said.

Adaptive-learning tech shows promise in helping students and teachers achieve classroom equity

Stock markets all over the world, including Sensex, Nifty, Nikkei, and NASDAQ fell significantly today, as they reacted to weak US labor market data, with unemployment rates inching up to 4.3%, from 4.1% in July 2024. In response, the Nikkei 225 dipped around 4,451 points, witnessing the worst losses it has seen since 1987. On the other hand, the Sensex plunged over 2,000 points, and the NASDAQ also slipped 417.98 points. Nifty also closed the day at 24,055.60, down by 2.68%. Closer home, the D-Street mayhem wiped of Rs 15 lakh crore worth of investor wealth in a single day. While this might spook even seasoned investors, should this bloodbath drive you to exit the market, or is it time for you to go on a quality stock buying spree? Here's what the experts have to say <h2>Market corrections = Opportunities </h2>Vinnaayak Mehta, Founder, The Infinity Group, a personal finance consultancy says that given the current market downturn, it is important for investors to stay calm, and not make any hasty decisions. "Market corrections can offer opportunities to buy quality stocks at more attractive valuations. Investors should take this time to evaluate their portfolios, focusing on long-term goals and strong fundamentals rather than short-term <keyword id="19908008" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="volatility" source="keywords">volatility</keyword>. This period of correction may present a chance to reassess asset allocations and consider strategic adjustments", he says. <h2>Expect low returns in the short run</h2> Mr. Sandeep Bagla, CEO of Trust Mutual Funds advises investors to keep their return expectations low and realistic, at least in the short run. Invest only if you have a suitably long <keyword id="19895437" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment" source="keywords">investment</keyword> horizon. This will help you go through an imminent, upcoming market correction, along with helping you tide over periods of volatility in the interim. "Markets like India, where domestic economy is like more resilient than other economies, could be less affected in the mayhem. However, you should keep systematically investing in the stock markets, and not hit brakes on your investments. Stay invested to reap benefits from growth over the long term", he explains. <h2>Indians markets are relatively safe </h2>As per Siddharth Alok, AVP Investments, Multi Ark Wealth-Epsilon Money Group, investors should consider buying in these dips, but only if their investing horizon is over 3 years. "As valuations further rise, these sudden down moves might become more frequent. Equity markets returns are never linear. However, the direct impact on Indian markets remains limited; this can be seen from the overall relative strength that domestic markets are witnessing, while <keyword id="19908188" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-markets" source="keywords">global markets</keyword> are down 10-20%, Indian markets are hardly down 5% including today from their recent peaks", highlights Alok. <h2>Invested heavily in small and mid caps? Time to move </h2> During any market corrections, mid and small caps are the first in line of fire. Given that both of these segments are far more volatile, as compared to their stable, large-cap counterparts, the impact of a correction is far more visible on small cap and mid cap stocks. As Jay Shah, Founder &amp; CEO, Finwisor puts it, "when the markets are at rich valuations, the markets become fragile and look for opportunities to correct. The correction generally happens disproportionately-more in small caps and less in large caps". Amidst today's rout, while Nifty50, an index of India's top 50 companies by market capitalization stumbled about 2.68%, Nifty midcap 50 was down by 3.28%, while midcap 100 plunged by 3.55%. Going a step ahead, Nifty small cap 100, a larger universe of just small cap stocks, dipped by 4.57%. In such a situation, Shah suggests that long-term investors who are sticking to their asset allocation strategies should sit still, while those who are heavily invested in midcaps and small caps should move their investments large-cap stocks. And in case one is sitting on idle cash, this is a good time to start deploying their funds in the market.

Stock market crash: What should your next move be?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stock market gains will slow as key drivers like valuations and rates hit extremes, David Rosenberg said.</li><li>He said operating earnings would need to surge to fuel further market gains.</li></ul>The main drivers of significant stock market gains over the past three decades are nearing extremes, suggesting future returns will be significantly lower.That's according to economist David Rosenberg, who warned clients in a note on Wednesday to prepare for a period of limited appreciation in US equities."There are few drivers left to keep the equity party going," Rosenberg said.Rosenberg is particularly concerned about recent trends in valuations, interest rates, and taxes. According to Rosenberg, they've hit their extremes, which could put downward pressure on corporate earnings and, therefore, stock prices.These are the three factors Rosenberg is worried about.<h2 id="615bfa1f-cdd7-488e-abd7-4e265f0fe33f">Stock valuations</h2>The S&amp;P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.3x is more than one-standard deviation above its historical norm and represents the highest level since the height of the COVID-era tech bubble in 2021, Rosenberg noted.Those <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-trump-trade-dot-com-bubble-sp500-smead-2024-11">high valuations,</a> combined with extreme bullish sentiment that's exceeded the levels seen right before the Great Financial Crisis, suggest to Rosenberg that there's little room for more upside in valuations."There is no space for further multiple expansion," Rosenberg said.Higher stock market valuations would largely hinge on continued growth in corporate earnings, but Rosenberg said there are reasons to believe that's unlikely. <h2 id="7355be83-3cb6-4311-86d7-0bf1c8a63ef0">Tax rates</h2>Corporate tax rates have been falling for decades, boosting corporate profits and helping drive stock prices higher.While the Trump trade hinges on potential legislation for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tax-cuts-tariffs-stock-market-sp500-inflation-china-trade-war-2024-11">the corporate tax rate to fall from 21% to 15%,</a> Rosenberg thinks that is unlikely."A razor-thin majority in the House and already low rates mean the runway is much shorter here as well," Rosenberg said.With the effective corporate tax rate at 17%, Rosenberg argues that there's little room for it to fall further, even with Republican control of the White House and Congress.<div type="image" title="Corporate tax rates have been falling" height="529" width="738" msid="115308221" hostid="261" sizebytes="24112"></div><h2 id="8145f461-f13b-43a5-ba3f-244cce5efcdd">Interest rates</h2>Falling interest rates have long helped fuel stock market gains, but that trend could be nearing its end.While the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, they're already near historical lows, suggesting there isn't much room for them to fall further, especially if President-elect <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">Trump's agenda is inflationary.</a>"Interest rates, though higher than the 2021 lows, still are at the lower end of the historic range. The current 10-year Treasury yield, at 4.3%, is less than half of the 10.6% average in the 1980s," Rosenberg said.<div type="image" title="A chart of falling interest rates" height="559" width="701" msid="115308224" hostid="261" sizebytes="32478"></div>Taken together, Rosenberg said the stock market is unlikely to see significant gains going forward unless operating earnings, which exclude the impact of taxes and interest expenses, rise significantly."Combined with an increasingly cost-conscious consumer and net profit margins at the higher end of the historical range, generating higher margins looks like a tough task," Rosenberg said.He added: "All three current levers of price returns are close to maxing out."

3 drivers of the stock market's bull rally are hitting extremes and point to lower returns ahead, economist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The S&amp;P 500 will see annualized returns of 3% over the next 10 years, says Goldman Sachs.</li><li>That's down from the 13% annualized figure from the prior decade.</li></ul>The stock market's decade-long golden age will soon be a thing of the past, says Goldman Sachs.A new report from the firm's portfolio strategy research team forecasted that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> will see an annualized nominal return of 3% over the next 10 years. That would put it in the 7th percentile of performance since 1930. It would also badly lag the 13% annualized figure put up by the benchmark index over the prior decade, Goldman data show."Investors should be prepared for equity returns during the next decade that are towards the lower end of their typical performance distribution relative to bonds and inflation," the analysts wrote.As an extension of this forecast, Goldman also sees stocks struggling to outperform other assets over the next 10 years. By its calculation, the S&amp;P 500 has about a 72% chance of trailing bonds, and a 33% probability of lagging inflation through 2034.Five factors underline Goldman's lackluster outlook:First, a historically stretched stock market valuation implies lower future returns, the bank said. Current valuations are indeed elevated, with the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio currently at 38 times, or in the 97th percentile.The S&amp;P's 500 CAPE has averaged 22%, Goldman noted.<div type="image" title="S&amp;P 500 adj CAPE" height="489" width="718" msid="114434673" hostid="261" sizebytes="26312"></div>Second, market concentration is near its highest level in 100 years, Goldman said."When equity market concentration is high, performance of the aggregate index is strongly dictated by the prospects of a few stocks," the analysts wrote.These stocks include tech large-caps such as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock">Nvidia</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/goog-stock">Alphabet</a>, whose performance has driven the S&amp;P 500 more than 20% higher year-to-date. While that's led the index through a string of record highs this year, it fosters a market mired in volatility risk and in need of diversity."Our historical analyses show that it is extremely difficult for any firm to maintain high levels of sales growth and profit margins over sustained periods of time. The same issue plagues a highly concentrated index," Goldman said.While some may find reason to argue why tech stocks will maintain growth momentum, history suggests that revenue will slow. According to Goldman, S&amp;P 500 firms that have consistently generated over 20% revenue growth underwent a sharp drop off after 10 years.<div type="image" title="Market concentration GS" height="1128" width="1422" msid="114434678" hostid="261" sizebytes="73798"></div>Third, Goldman expects the economy to contract more frequently for the next decade. The firm says the US will see four GDP contractions over the period, or in 10% of quarters. That's up from two such instances during the previous decade.Goldman notes that annualized equity returns typically average -10% during these periods of economic slowdown.<div type="image" title="Economic contractions GS" height="932" width="1434" msid="114434677" hostid="261" sizebytes="47150"></div>The fourth headwind factored into Goldman's forward-return model is corporate profitability. The firm tied its rationale in with the concentration argument above, saying that as sales and earnings growth decelerate for the market's biggest stocks, that will have an outsize impact on the entire market.Finally, the fifth is the relative level of the 10-year Treasury yield. The 10-year is currently yielding north of 4% as investors recalibrate their rate-cut expectations following a series of strong economic-data reports and amid persistently hot inflation.

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