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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The stock market could jump as much as 10% by the year-end, Citi's stock-trading strategy head said.</li><li>Stuart Kaiser told Bloomberg TV that the uber-bull case is now "a plausible scenario."</li></ul>Wall Street is forecasting S&amp;P 500 highs that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bmo-raises-year-end-sp500-price-target-2024-9">reach past the 6,000 threshold</a>. This bullishness may be well earned, Citi's Stuart Kaiser said."The uber-bull case, I think, for all of this year has been: you avoid a recession, you get insurance cuts, right? And that is now a plausible scenario," the firm's head of US equity-trading strategy told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dM23uGmjuI">Bloomberg TV</a> on Tuesday.If this is achieved, stocks can surge another 5% to 10% by the end of this year, Kaiser said.So far, the second half of those conditions have been met. This month, the Federal Reserve finally started reducing interest rates, in a move meant to prevent a future economic slump.This precautionary "insurance" cut — amounting to a 50-basis-point reduction to the federal funds rate — was embraced by stock investors, and indexes have since notched new record highs.To Kaiser's point, this will continue as long as a recession does not materialize. But though the Fed emphasized that it was not forecasting a looming downturn during its latest policy meeting, it all hinges on incoming labor market data, he noted.Since August, slipping employment conditions have been the core driver of slowdown fears. Investors will need to see labor figures remain intact in upcoming monthly data, or else recession outlooks could become increasingly valid."Our view is risk reward is tough because it's really dependent on month-to-month," Kaiser noted, warning that recessionary prints would easily upend any Fed efforts to support the market.Other banks are also <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-most-important-daysstock-market-between-now-and-election-2024-9?_gl=1*i7qn1n*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzE3OTAwMi42NDQuMC4xNzI3MTc5MDAyLjYwLjAuMA..&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">eyeing jobs data</a>.According to Morgan Stanley, investors can celebrate if unemployment falls below 4.1% and non-farm payrolls reach over 150,000. This will be the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/best-case-scenario-for-stock-market-outlook-fourth-quarter-ms-2024-9">best-case scenario for the market</a>, keeping momentum going.Otherwise, trading should prepare for the worst if unemployment climbs above 4.3% and payrolls slide under 100,000."The Fed puts not going to protect you if you get that kind of data, and that's why we think the risk reward is kind of a little bit off right now," Kaiser said.

How stocks can roar by 10% into year-end, Citi US equity-trading head says

<div type="image" title="Are Indians depositing less money in banks, or more in mutual funds? Turns out, it&amp;#39;s neither of those." msid="113663806" hostid="261" sizebytes="1121785"></div> Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of <keyword id="20202062" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-deposits" source="keywords">bank deposits</keyword> in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialisation of <keyword id="20751315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="household-savings" source="keywords">household savings</keyword> in the country or the rising preference of Indians towards <keyword id="19929240" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="keywords">mutual funds</keyword> and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword> through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by Franklin Templeton, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are household deposits really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. <div type="image" title="Yes, household deposits (as % of total deposits) have dipped, but the drop is far from significant" msid="113663882" hostid="261" sizebytes="306706"></div> Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian households in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and <keyword id="114757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="savings-account" source="Orion">savings account</keyword> deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of Securities Transaction Tax (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell <keyword id="6361918" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-mutual-funds" source="Orion">equity mutual funds</keyword>, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by <keyword id="45369" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equities" source="Orion">equities</keyword> can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the Fed recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day. Do you have insights or personal experience to share on your personal finances or money? Contact us at <a target="_blank" class="c-link" href="mailto:businessinsider@timesinternet.in">businessinsider@timesinternet.in</a>.

Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Justin Lubell, Citadel's Global Equities head, said shorting has been a big driver of returns.</li><li>There's less competition in the space compared to going long on stocks, he said.</li></ul>While some big bets against specific stocks have blown up in hedge funds' faces in recent years, there's still a focus on shorting at Citadel's longest-running equities unit.Citadel Global Equities, which started in 2001 for Ken Griffin's $64 billion firm, has generally made more in its short book compared to its longs in recent years, according to comments from the unit's head, Justin Lubell. Lubell spoke at last week's Robin Hood Investors Conference in New York, and Business Insider reviewed a summary of his comments from someone in attendance.Lubell appeared on a panel with Atreides Management founder Gavin Baker and Lakewood Capital founder Anthony Bozza. The moderator was billionaire Maverick Capital founder Lee Ainslie.Lubell, who has run Global Equities since 2020 after more than a decade at Steve Cohen's Point72, said there's much less competition on the short side. Plenty of managers focus on good long ideas, he said, but not nearly as many put the same time and resources into the short side of the book.Focusing on the short book and seeking out companies to bet against helps investors on his team weather volatility and lets their idea play out over a longer duration, Lubell said.Some hedge funds have abandoned single-stock shorts, instead hedging their portfolios with bets against an index of the market or a basket of stocks. There was a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/d1-dan-sundheim-reddit-gamestop-frenzy-short-strategy-2021-5">reluctance to target</a> specific stocks from some areas of the industry after large bets against video-game retailer GameStop <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/michael-jordan-business-partners-reddit-short-squeeze-2021-1">led to the implosion of Gabe Plotkin's Melvin Capital.</a>Even investors known for bold short bets have moved away from the practice. For instance, Pershing Square's Bill Ackman "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bill-ackman-short-selling-activist-investing-pershing-square-herbalife-markets-2022-3">permanently retired" from activist short selling </a>in 2022. At the end of September, he had 13 long positions and no shorts in his portfolio, according to the publicly traded trust that mimics his hedge fund's holdings. For these reasons, Bozza, who founded Lakewood in 2007, said that those who know how to short stocks are becoming a "dying breed," even though it's easier to find a good short idea than a good long idea.Bozza said it's rare to find an undervalued company in the public markets, but an overvalued company does not receive the same scrutiny.

Why Citadel's longest-running equities unit is focused on shorting stocks

Earlier today, RBIs MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) decided to leave the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5%, while changing the policy stance toward neutral. The aim, as <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> maintained, was to strike a balance between taming domestic <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> and maintaining target growth. A neutral stance gives the RBI the flexibility to adjust <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> based on the direction of inflation, as opposed to its previous stand of withdrawing accommodation, which eliminates any possibility of rate cuts. While a change of stance doesn’t necessarily mean a cut should follow, most experts view this as a prelude to a possible rate cut in December this year, or even February next year. Says Deepak Ramaraju, Senior Fund Manager, Shriram AMC, "The RBI stance has changed to neutral, indicating that its primary focus is to balance growth and inflation. Growth has been resilient and given the short-term pressure on inflation, RBI may continue to hold interest rates unchanged in Q3 FY 2025. Based on inflation moderating below 4.5% and course of geo-political concerns, the RBI may undertake a rate cut decision in Q4 FY 2025". So, what does this mean for your investments? How will this decision impact your existing funds? We take a look. <h2>Good time to invest in high-yield deposits</h2>This is a good time to invest in high-yield <keyword id="19975805" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fixed-deposits" source="keywords">fixed deposits</keyword> and long-term bonds. That's because with rate cuts imminent in the upcoming quarters, you'd be able to lock-in your funds with the prevailing, relatively higher interest rate right now. As for the yellow metal or gold, it is generally considered a safe haven asset during turbulent market times. That's why you should consider making it a part of your investments, or increasing its weightage in your overall portfolio, depending on your needs. Vijay Kuppa, CEO, InCred Money highlights that with deposit rates at elevated levels, one has an ideal opportunity for locking in high-yield fixed deposits."At the same time, high borrowing costs also make a compelling case for increasing debt allocations in investment portfolios, which offer a buffer against potential equity market corrections, which might occur due to <keyword id="19955176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-tensions" source="keywords">geopolitical tensions</keyword>", he continues. With the chronic crisis in Middle-East flaring up again, as Israel looks to target Lebanon and Iran, you can expect some volatility and downturns in the <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword>, both in India and globally, in the times to come. Over the last 5 days, Sensex has dipped by over 1,900 points, or about 2.38%, and Nifty has also gone down by 2.23%. With this set to continue for some time, you can reconsider and evaluate your investments in debt. Mahendra Kumar Jajoo, CIO – Fixed Income, Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India) explains that the market is confident of a rate cut in the times to come, and that the <keyword id="20066775" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-market" source="keywords">bond market</keyword> has already started pricing in the same. "We have already seen some of this already, with 10Y GOI yields at around 6.75%, having already eased significantly in last few months. So, if investors wait for rate cut to invest, it may be too late for them. Also, with corporate credit picking up, investing in corporate bond funds for a period of 3-5 years can also serve the investor well. Investors having a long term investment horizon and appropriate risk appetite can also invest in gilt funds", he continues. <h2>Dont exit the markets yet </h2>Though short-term biases of FII may continue towards Chinese markets keeping pressure on the equity markets, the resilient domestic flows can defy deep corrections in the equity markets despite high valuations. The markets may trend positive with subsequent rate cuts by the US Fed later this year. Hence, it wont be advisable to completely exit the equity markets during these times, notes Avnish Jain, Head - Fixed Income, Canara Robeco Mutual Fund Jain advises to take a buy on dips approach towards the stock markets i.e. adding quality stocks to your portfolio during times of market downturn. Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities says that the current market texture is volatile, hence level based trading would be the ideal strategy for the day traders. "For the bulls now, 25,050/81,700 would be the key level to watch out. Above the same market could retest the level of 25,200-25,225/82,000-82,300. On the flip side, 24,900/81,200 would be the key support zone for the traders. Below the same, the selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below the same, market could slip till 24,800-24,780/81,000-80,700", explains Chouhan. <h2>Time to buy a home? Maybe! </h2>No rate cut can spell some good news for homebuyers who are looking to get their hands on real estate during the festive season. Even as home loan rates remain steady as of now, homebuyers may have to wait until December or beyond to get any tangible relief in their home loan EMIs. Vimal Nadar, Head of Research, Colliers India explains that a change in stance from “withdrawal of accommodation” to “neutral” indicates its clear direction for a possible reduction in interest rates in the foreseeable future. This ongoing stability in repo rate should provide a significant thrust to residential real estate during these festive months as home loan interest rates are likely to remain steady. "Typically, Q4, marked by higher inclination of homebuyers to wrap-up property purchases during the auspicious period combined with instantaneous liquidity benefit aided by developers offering attractive discounts, has historically provided the final push to housing sales across the major markets in the country", he added.

RBI leaves repo rate unchanged. What does this mean for you?

The Indian mutual fund industry continued to register strong growth in fund inflows during May 2024, as monthly data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) today showed. This was a record month for equity mutual funds, with the category’s inflows jumping up by a whopping 83% since April. The mutual fund industry’s AUM (net assets under management) stood at Rs 58.91 lakh crore, rising marginally from Rs 57.25 lakh crore in April 2024. With total inflows worth Rs 42,294.99 crore, debt mutual funds continued to receive more investor attention than their equity counterparts during the month, which saw inflows of around Rs 34,697 crore. Notably, this is the 39th consecutive month where <keyword id="19925781" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="equities" source="keywords">equities</keyword> have seen positive inflows. Hybrid funds also ended their month in green, garnering Rs 17,990 crore in May. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Expectations around election results behind the surge, say experts" comment="subhead" text="Expectations around election results behind the surge, say experts">Expectations around election results behind the surge, say experts</cmsannotation> Expectations around the continuation of a stable regime led by the ruling party BJP during the election month of May could have been the major driver behind the record inflows into the MFs. Venkat Chalasani, Chief Executive, AMFI, said "Political stability creates an environment conducive to sustainable economic growth, attracting investments and fostering long-term investments. Global growth is sustaining its momentum in 2024 and is likely to remain resilient, supported by a rebound in global trade. The overall outlook for Indian capital markets remains positive, supported by strong fundamentals, and favourable demographics. However, it remains to be seen how the lesser-than-expected seats for the Narendra Modi-led BJP have impacted the MF sector in the month of June. However, a continuation of the NDA regime is likely to have contributed to the improved market sentiments as evident with surging markets post the counting day, and could reflect into the MF activity as well. "Although coalition governments face challenges in consensus-building and decision-making, infrastructure and nation-first initiatives introduced earlier are likely to receive support from allies across the political spectrum. The forthcoming 100-day action plan and a comprehensive Union Budget will provide a clearer picture of the government's priorities for the Indian economy," says Gopal Kavalireddi, Vice President of Research at FYERS. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Equity inflows mark a record high" comment="subhead" text="Equity inflows mark a record high"><keyword id="421833" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Equity-inflows" source="Orion">Equity inflows</keyword> mark a record high</cmsannotation> Equity inflows remained positive for the 39th consecutive month, starting from March 2021. Growth Equity fund inflows for the month of May was ₹ 34,697, pushing the total inflows into mutual funds to Rs.1.1 lakh crore for the month. A total of 9 schemes were launched last month in the category of open-ended schemes, raising a total of ₹ 10,140 crores, said AMFI. Kavalireddi says, “Despite potential high volatility from FII selling, general elections, GDP data, and other minor events in May, investors remained steadfast in their pursuit of returns on the back of the Indian growth narrative." In a clear indication of investors looking to diversify their investments, multi-cap funds garnered Rs 2,644.88 crore. Large-cap funds amassed Rs 663 crore, while mid-cap funds made Rs 2,605.70 crore. On the other hand, small-cap funds have seemingly begun gaining their lost sheen, managing to take in Rs 2,724.67 crores during the month. Flexi-cap funds led the troupe, with inflows worth Rs 3,155 crore. "Equity flows have been largely driven by expectations of the election outcome, coupled with some NFO (new fund offer) launches, which perhaps led to a much higher than expected quantum in the equity category. On the equity side, investors possibly wanted to position their portfolios in advance to avoid any kind of gap risk as election exit polls were coming out over the weekend, which could have led to a spike in equity allocations towards the end of the month," Anand Vardarajan, Head Business Head – Banking, Institutional Clients, Alternate Products and Product Strategy, Tata Asset Management. Amidst hybrid funds, the majority came from arbitrage funds, which saw inflows worth Rs 12,758.12 crores in May. Notably, index funds and other ETFs collectively raked in Rs. 15,180 crore. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="SIPs going strong" comment="subhead" text="SIPs going strong"><keyword id="159805" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SIPs" source="Orion">SIPs</keyword> going strong</cmsannotation> Systematic investment plan (SIP) contributions continued to breach their record highs on a month-on-month basis. SIP contributions rose marginally to an all-time high of Rs 20.90 crore last month, as opposed to Rs 20.37 crore in April. SIP accounts also jumped to their highest figure in May, standing at 8,75,89,485. During the month, around 49,74,400 new SIPs were registered. As per <keyword id="1029773" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AMFI-data" source="Orion">AMFI data</keyword>, SIP plans accounted for 19% of the net flows during the month. In the debt category, liquid funds saw the most influx, worth Rs 25,873.38 crore. Sectoral or thematic funds amassed Rs 19,213.43 crore during the month, trumping inflows by small-cap funds, which stood at Rs 2,724.67 crore, by a significant margin. Inflows into thematic funds were largely bolstered by the NFO of HDFC Manufacturing Fund, which drew Rs. 9,563 crores. Although Himanshu Srivastava, Associate Director, Manager Research, Morningstar Investment Research India, has a word of caution for all those flocking to sectoral funds, “investors must be cautious while investing in such funds. They are cyclical, and hence investors should have the necessary skills or the right set of advice in place to track sector dynamics and time their entry and exit from these funds. These are high-risk return propositions, and hence investors must take a judicious call while investing in them.” <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Gold continues to shine" comment="subhead" text="Gold continues to shine">Gold continues to shine</cmsannotation> The quantum of net flows in <keyword id="20050894" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-ETFs" source="keywords">gold ETFs</keyword> saw a sharp uptick to Rs 827 crore in May 2024, from a net outflow of Rs 396 crore in April. Srivastava further notes that the enduring <keyword id="19950651" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-inflation" source="keywords">global inflation</keyword>, which remains above central banks' comfort levels, and the persistent uncertainty surrounding <keyword id="19962135" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate-cuts" source="keywords">interest rate cuts</keyword> have bolstered gold's appeal as a haven and as a hedge against inflation, thereby attracting more investors. “Also, over the years, gold has gained prominence as an effective diversifier, prompting many investors to include gold ETFs in their portfolios. <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">Gold prices</keyword> also saw some corrections in May, which spurred buying from investors. In INR terms, gold has done fairly well over the last year but dwarfs in comparison to how equities have fared. Given this backdrop, flows in the gold ETF category have been somewhat patchy relative to the equity asset class," he continued. Disclaimer: The content on this website is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. We recommend readers consult certified, qualified and registered advisors for professional and personalised financial advice.

Election fever? Equities and SIP inflows mark record highs in May, per AMFI data

As the results season kicks in, the <keyword id="20097634" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="quarterly-earnings" source="keywords">quarterly earnings</keyword> numbers of several <keyword id="22405488" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="blue-chip-firms" source="keywords">blue-chip firms</keyword> — such as <keyword id="19906778" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Infosys" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Infosys" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Infosys">Infosys</keyword> and Reliance Industries — along with <keyword id="20837523" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-trends" source="keywords">global trends</keyword> and <keyword id="20223116" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="trading-activity" source="keywords">trading activity</keyword> of foreign investors, will determine <keyword id="22405487" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-market-movement" source="keywords">equity market movement</keyword> in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic <keyword id="22405489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation-data" source="keywords">WPI inflation data</keyword> for June — scheduled to be announced on Monday — will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram. Among major quarterly earnings to be tracked this week are from HDFC Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Auto, BPCL, JSW Steel, Asian Paints, Infosys, and Reliance Industries. "Q1 earnings will be a key focus this week as numerous companies, including heavyweights Infosys, and Reliance, are set to release their results. Additionally, <keyword id="22194639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pre-Budget-discussions" source="keywords">pre-Budget discussions</keyword> are expected to contribute to market volatility," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said. On the global front, a significant focus will be on China. The country is scheduled to announce its GDP and Industrial Production (IIP) numbers, Meena said. "Other global factors to watch include the speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman, US retail sales figures, and macroeconomic data from Japan," he added. Meanwhile, IT services company HCL Tech on Friday posted a 20.4 per cent rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,257 crore for the June-ended quarter and gave a revenue growth guidance of 3-5 per cent for FY25 on GenAI diversification and strong operational execution. "On Monday, markets will react to India's inflation data. Key results this week include Jio Financial Services, HDFC Life, Asian Paints, LTIMindtree, Infosys, Wipro, JSW Steel, Paytm, etc. Also globally, investors will take cues from China's GDP numbers, US core retail sales data, and ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision," Siddhartha Khemka, Head, Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. Retail inflation increased to four-month high of 5.08 per cent in June as food items, including vegetables, became dearer, according to government data released on Friday. Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said, "We expect stock-specific moves to gain traction due to the ongoing earnings season; indeed, IT will be in the limelight due to the good start to the earnings and outlook." In the week ahead, economic data like China GDP, EuroZone CPI inflation, ECB policy, and the US Fed chair speech will be watched by investors to get cues on market momentum, Nair added. On a weekly basis, the BSE benchmark jumped 522.74 points, or 0.65 per cent, while the Nifty climbed 178.3 points, or 0.73 per cent. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 622 points, or 0.78 per cent, to settle at a record closing level of 80,519.34 on Friday. During the day, it zoomed 996.17 points, or 1.24 per cent, to hit an all-time high of 80,893.51. The NSE Nifty surged 186.20 points, or 0.77 per cent, to settle at a record closing high of 24,502.15. Intra-day, it jumped 276.25 points, or 1.13 per cent, to hit a new lifetime peak of 24,592.20.

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