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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Emerging markets stocks are set for their worst monthly decline since January. </li><li>The slump comes as investors price in higher odds of a Trump win in the upcoming US election.</li></ul>It's been a tough month for emerging market stocks as the odds of a Donald Trump election win rise — and with it, the odds that his proposed tariff plan will actually see the light of day. Emerging market stocks are headed for their worst monthly decline since January, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling for a fourth day on Thursday for a 3.1% decline this month.A select few EM stocks have taken the biggest hits, with Samsung, Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan accounting for more than half of the index's fall. The decline comes as the market prices in higher odds of a win for former President Donald Trump with just two weeks until the election.On crypto betting market Polymarket, Trump's odds of winning soared as high as to 66% on Tuesday, their highest since President Joe Biden was still in the race in July. Odds are now slightly lower at 62%.Polls, meanwhile, are much closer, with the most recent national polling average compiled by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris">RealClearPolitics</a> showing Harris at 48.7% versus 48.5% for Trump.Trump has proposed raising tariffs on imports from all countries to as high as 20% and has said imports from China would be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-impose-tariffs-china-if-elected-2024-2">subject to a 60% tariff</a>.Investors' fears of a damaging trade war aren't unfounded. In 2018, Trump's trade war with China led to a significant underperformance compared to US stocks, and strategists say the election's outcome is again pushing investors away from EM shares as uncertainty builds. "US elections have become a key driver of uncertainty as risk positioning is clearly fluctuating to a more cautious stance. In our recent client interactions, we have sensed global EM investors' appetite to increase risk budgets over the next weeks may have been significantly reduced," analysts from Citi wrote in a note last week.The strategists note that the latest sentiment is a sharp contrast from a month ago, when investors were pricing in higher odds of a Harris win."There has been a significant change in investor sentiment, and investors' risk budgets have likely been changing as a function of that."Other factors, like rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a bond market sell-off, are also driving investors away from riskier assets. Investors are also expressing disappointment in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">China's stimulus measures</a>, which <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-stimulus-boosts-emerging-markets-stocks-2024-9">initially fueled a rally</a> in EM stocks last month.

Prospects of a Trump win and huge tariffs spark worst sell-off for emerging market stocks in 10 months

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Despite wide public support against the practice, members of Congress invest in the stock market.</li><li>People have invested at least $55 million in two years mimicking members of Congress' portfolios.</li></ul>An app allowing its users to trade like members of Congress and leading investors just broke $100 million in total investments. Despite its success, the app's cofounders adamantly say they hope it leads Congress to ban themselves from trading.Released in January 2023, Autopilot pulls trading data filed by members of Congress and allows users to copy their trades. Since the passage of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-stocks-stock-act-violations-lawmakers-finances-disclosure-2022-12">Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act</a> in 2012, members of Congress are required to report each of their and their immediate family's investments within 45 days or face financial penalties.The app also allows its users to mimic investments made by prominent hedge fund managers like Michael Burry, the subject of the 2015 movie "The Big Short," via their federally required 13F filings.Chris Josephs, a cofounder of the platform who runs the popular "<a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/PelosiTracker_">Nancy Pelosi Stock Tracker</a>" on X, told Business Insider the app breezed past the $100 million trading milestone on Monday, with more than $55 million copied from trades that copied congressionally filed ones.The app doesn't allow its users to mimic every member of Congress. Instead, it provides four legislators to copy — Rep. Nancy Pelosi, Rep. Dan Crenshaw, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Rep. Dan Goldman, plus an amalgam of stocks from "the top 10 politician traders based on their 2022 performance."Josephs said the portfolios of Crenshaw and Pelosi, which the congresswoman has said are made by her husband, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nancy-pelosi-stock-trades-congress-investments-2022-7">Paul Pelosi</a>, are the two most popular to mirror.Statistics within the app show that Pelosi's reported trades increased 45% in value in 2023. Crenshaw's increased in value by 41%.Asked for comment on the matter, Corry Schiermeyer, spokesperson for Crenshaw's office, told Business Insider their boss is "not a millionaire and barely has anything invested in the market."Representatives from Pelosi's office declined Business Insider's request for comment.<h2>The fight against congressional stock trading</h2><div type="image" title="large bronze statue of bull in running stance in a brick plaza" height="1500" width="2250" msid="108687731" hostid="261"></div>At the end of 2021, Pelosi — then-speaker of the House — said that she was against banning members of Congress and their families from trading stocks, leading to massive public outcry and her to flip her position on the matter.Several members of Congress — both Republicans and Democrats — tried to ban the practice in 2022 to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lawmakers-unlikely-banned-trading-stocks-for-now-2022-12">no avail</a>. Next congressional session, in 2023, a group of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democratic-senators-reintroduce-bill-to-ban-stock-trading-by-lawmakers-2023-4">Democratic senators introduced a similar bill</a>, though it remains stuck in committee."That's why we're doing this," Josephs, the Autopilot spokesperson, said. "Honestly, it's partly to continue holding their feet to the fire. We're not going away."Donald Sherman, deputy director for the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, said he thinks the app is a "clever idea." He's not surprised to hear that many legislators have trading portfolios that are more successful than the average investor's."If I take the most generous perspective, their entire job lends itself to the kind of careful study of market trends, economic factors, and experience with what moves the market that I think most traders need and would envy," he said.As Autopilot's Josephs <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/Chrisjjosephs/status/1742568215530594626">has put it</a>: If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

Traders have invested $55 million using an app that helps them copy congressional stock portfolios

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Prospects of a Trump win and huge tariffs spark worst sell-off for emerging market stocks in 10 months

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Traders have invested $55 million using an app that helps them copy congressional stock portfolios

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