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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Kanny is a startup that uses character assessments to improve the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/multiple-job-interviews-a-pain-but-also-benefit-workers-2024-8">hiring processes</a> for employers.</li><li>Character is more crucial than skills, but it's often hard to evaluate, Kanny's CEO told BI.</li></ul>One area of my <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/finding-job-awful-right-now-drop-in-openings-tough-search-2024-9">work</a> where I appear to be better than others is remaining humble.That's according to a survey of some colleagues who rated me on six traits.My coworkers — geniuses, all — made the evaluation using a tool from the startup <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.kanny.com/">Kanny</a>, which aims to improve hiring by assessing what it calls a job candidate's work character."The most important thing when hiring is not hard or soft skills or even expertise. It is character," Kanny CEO and cofounder Sean Vassilaros told me. "It's also the most important or most difficult thing to ascertain."He said Kanny is trying to return some power to the employer — though that may seem counterintuitive to many job seekers, for whom it can feel like bosses hold all of the proverbial cards. Bosses can <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-hard-to-find-job-us-though-unemployment-low-2024-2">ghost candidates</a> — or sometimes list <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fake-job-listings-rampant-labor-market-employment-hiring-process-difficult-2024-5">fake jobs</a> — and they can put people through round after <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/people-looking-for-jobs-enduring-many-rounds-of-interviews-2024-7">round of interviews</a>.Yet the control that job seekers have, Vassilaros said, is in shaping the narrative of who they are."How many times have you heard the story of, 'Hey, I hired this person. They knocked my socks off in the interview,'" he said. And then "'they turned out to be an absolute disaster.'"Vassilaros said that because workers control their résumé, references, social media presence, and LinkedIn profile, it can be difficult for would-be employers to suss out a sus applicant."The entire hiring process is curated by the candidate," he said. "It's all packaged up in this sales job to hand to you."It's of course reasonable that job seekers would seek to present themselves in the best light, Vassilaros said. The trouble is that when that happens, it often leaves those conducting an interview without a way to get "really good, keen insights.""I, for sure, can't ask your references," he said. "These are your champions, as they should be."<h2 id="d3ff94a0-902b-4c70-a34c-0b99b67ffc75">The reviews are in</h2>I signed up for Kanny, albeit with some trepidation, using my LinkedIn login. That's how Kanny knew who I was and found coworkers. They could have been former colleagues or people I work with now. Someone requesting a review can also limit the ask to former coworkers.Within a day or two of completing my sign-up, I received a few texts and emails from people, leery of a scam, asking whether I actually wanted their feedback on my character. I assured them it was legit and that I would Venmo them in exchange for a favorable review (kidding).Vassilaros said worries about whether the request is valid is one reason the company encourages people to let current and former colleagues know the request is legitimate. Kanny offers templates for email, text, and LinkedIn messages. Users must opt in to see whether and how others have reviewed them.Reviewers rate someone on six criteria: integrity, accountability, respect, humility (ahem), confidence, and grit.A former boss told me it only took a minute or so to complete. That's partly because reviewers move a slider to the left or right. There isn't a field for a reviewer to enter open text.That's by design, Vassilaros said. The idea is to have everyone marked on the same scale. It's a way of making subjective data more objective, he said, and less reliant on sentiment."They can't be like, 'This guy stole my lunch,'" he said. "We don't want that information."The algorithm considers what Vassilaros calls "work relationship" information, including how closely, how long — and how long ago — you worked with someone. Scoring is also set so that if certain reviewers are too negative or too positive, their impact is blunted."This is not meant to tank or to hurt anyone. This is meant, literally, to reward but also give you information on how to develop and get better," he said.Reviewers are anonymous — and responses are only shown in aggregate though it takes at least five reviews before Kanny will generate a report.I only heard from a handful of people, and I'm not sure how many colleagues actually evaluated my character traits. Given my above-average score in some areas, I'd imagine it was only a handful of true believers.Once I logged in to Kanny's website, I could see my ratings on a dashboard and how I compared with other Kanny users —hence my not-so-humble-bragging about my humility. And if I'm honest, my results in that category were only a tiny bit above the average.It was fun to see my scores from mystery colleagues. Yet more important, it struck me that anytime you can offer employers better insights into how a job seekers' colleagues regard them, it could be a notable step toward making the hiring process feel more humane.Users like me can ask others to review them; by the end of the year, Vassilaros said, Kanny plans to open up the tool to corporate customers. That way, an employer could request that an applicant go through the Kanny process and get ratings.He said he plans to integrate Kanny into the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-your-resume-gets-rejected-job-search-bots-people-ats-2024-5">applicant-tracking systems</a> most large employers use to help manage their hiring process.Vassilaros said a recruiter needing to sort through 1,000 applicants for a role might instantly whittle it down to 20 by ranking according to these character snapshots.From there, a recruiter could dig into a person's report to learn about an applicant's strengths and weaknesses.Yet, Vassilaros said, a low score in a particular category might not be a dealbreaker.He offered the example of a software developer who got high marks for accountability and integrity but came in lower on respect. That suggests he might not work well with others, Vassilaros said. "That may be acceptable for that role," he said.<h2 id="8e895964-3bc8-4993-8695-9a4e94228f26">Looking at character in other ways</h2>Kyle Samuels, founder and CEO of the executive search firm Creative Talent Endeavors, told me that understanding an organization's character is crucial when hiring. A company like REI or Patagonia, he said, might focus on helping employees shine, whereas an investment bank might value a more competitive, self-driven worker.Samuels said that an applicant's character can be revealed throughout the hiring process. What is a person's demeanor? Does the candidate show up on time? Is the job seeker rude to his assistant?"Those are things sometimes that have stopped me from even having an interview with a candidate," he said.Samuels has also seen job seekers pass along proprietary information from their current employer to try to impress a prospective boss. That can be a red flag, Samuels said."There are certain companies who will clutch their pearls at that. And there are other companies saying, 'So, you're bringing over your client list, right?'" he said.In some industries, killing it at work might allow individuals with less favorable character traits to thrive, he said. You might be a jerk, Samuels said, but if you brought in $4 million in sales this quarter, an employer might be willing to overlook gaps in character.Samuels said a tool that gets at a candidate's character might be most helpful for lower-level roles, where the interview process is often less extensive than for a senior position.<h2 id="e35ebf96-a7dc-4a90-a51d-86d4132b41d0">Defining character can be messy</h2>Rebecca Arnold, founder of Root Coaching &amp; Consulting, told me that she's not sure that character assessments based on someone's LinkedIn connections would eliminate the type of bias that is often part of a job seeker's references."You probably don't have thousands of enemies in your LinkedIn network," she quipped.Arnold also said that broad terms like respect and integrity can be open to interpretation.Getting it right is important but often difficult for employers, she said."They often only find whether someone is really strong in these characteristics or weak after they've been hired," Arnold said, adding that bringing in people who fall short around character can hurt an organization's culture.Vassilaros, from Kanny, said that the company has technology that can find people you've worked with who might not be connections on LinkedIn. He also said the company tries to define the attributes reviewers use so that the terms are specific to work.Vassilaros added that his experience running other companies made it clear to him how hard it is to determine a candidate's character before making a hire."I was probably batting about a 60% success rate," he said.Vassilaros said his goal is to make character in the workplace a bigger focus."That should drive the conversation," he said.Do you have something to share about what you're seeing in the workplace or in your job search? Business Insider would like to hear from you. Email our workplace team from a nonwork device at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:thegrind@businessinsider.com">thegrind@businessinsider.com</a> with your story, or ask for one of our reporter's Signal numbers.

I tried a tool that lets your coworkers rate your character. The startup behind it wants employers to use it for hiring. 

The Indian <keyword id="21219153" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment-market" source="keywords">employment market</keyword> is projected to experience a 6.33% incremental expansion over the first half of FY 2024-25, according to a report by TeamLease. The report highlighted that 56% of employers expect their workforce to grow, 21% anticipate a decline, and 23% believe their workforce size will remain unchanged. The report provided a detailed analysis of the <keyword id="21680463" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-job-market" source="keywords">Indian job market</keyword> across 23 industries and 20 cities. It highlighted workforce expansion trends, emphasizing the impact of <keyword id="20509550" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-conditions" source="keywords">economic conditions</keyword>, organizational dynamics, skill shortages, and <keyword id="20358462" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="technological-advancements" source="keywords">technological advancements</keyword> on hiring strategies. The growth in the employment market is attributed to the favourable economic conditions in the country, including a nearly 7% GDP growth forecast for 2024 by most global rating agencies, which would make India the fastest-growing G-20 nation. Strong investment demand, peaking headline inflation, and a greater emphasis on technology and skills by employers are also key factors. In terms of cities, Delhi, Bangalore, and Hyderabad emerged as the top cities with the highest proportion of employers expanding their workforce sizes. These cities attract businesses due to their established infrastructure, large talent pools, and economic vitality. The consistent preference for these major cities underscores their significance as job concentration hubs, despite the growing trend of expansion into new locations. These urban centres play a strategic role in driving employment growth and economic development in India. The report also noted that nearly two out of five organizations are focusing on bridging skill gaps, highlighting a shift towards a more adaptable and skilled workforce in preparation for technological advancements and new skills. The report said that Generative AI (<keyword id="19949719" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GenAI" source="keywords">GenAI</keyword>) is particularly noteworthy, as it has the potential to transform key business processes, impacting workforce dynamics and reshaping talent management. In response, 35% of surveyed organizations reported significant changes in their talent acquisition strategies to integrate advanced AI technologies. On the unemployment front, the report stated out that a significant portion of the unemployed workforce, nearly 83%, consists of youth aged 15-29. Over the past two decades, there has been a significant increase in the educational attainment of these unemployed youths. The proportion of those with at least secondary education rose from 35.2% in 2000 to 65.7% in 2022, indicating a rising educational profile among the unemployed. However, the national <keyword id="20054242" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="unemployment-rate" source="keywords">unemployment rate</keyword> has progressively decreased, falling to 3.1% in 2023 from 3.6% in 2022 and 4.2%in 2021. The unemployment rate in urban areas also decreased from 7.2% to 6.5% for persons aged 15 years and above between October-December 2022 and October-December 2023. The <keyword id="19913761" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gig-economy" source="keywords">gig economy</keyword> in India is experiencing rapid growth, with the number of gig workers projected to rise from 7.7 million in 2020 to 23.5 million by 2029-30, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of almost 12%. The distribution of gig work across skill levels includes 47% in medium-skilled jobs, 22% in high-skilled jobs, and 31% in low-skilled jobs, highlighting the diverse opportunities within this sector. In the media &amp; entertainment industry, digital transformation and changing consumer preferences are driving 48% of employers towards <keyword id="22204807" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="workforce-growth" source="keywords">workforce growth</keyword> in the first half of FY 2024-25. However, the other half of the industry faces turbulence and uncertainty.

Maximum employers expect their workforce to grow in first half FY 2024-25, says Teamlease report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.</li><li>It follows a 50-basis-point cut in September, with the pace of inflation continuing to cool.</li></ul>Another <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">interest rate cut</a> is headed Americans' way.On Thursday, the Federal Open Market Committee announced a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, following a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">50-basis-point cut</a> in September. It follows continued data showing inflation is nearing the Federal Reserve's 2% target — the consumer price index, a commonly-watched measure of inflation, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">rose 2.4%</a> over the year in September.This latest interest rate decision also came two days after Donald Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">won the presidential election</a>. Trump is expected to implement high tariffs once his term begins, and members of the FOMC will likely begin discussing the impact of the president-elect's policies on the economy and forthcoming interest rate decisions."A victory for Trump could raise doubts over a December cut, and the Fed may strike a more hawkish note as a result," Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at financial services firm Ebury, said in a statement last week.Trump's victory also throws into question the future of the Fed itself. Trump has previously said that he would like to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cut-trump-fed-powell-reaction-independence-history-2024-9">have a say in interest-rate decisions</a>, challenging the politically independent nature of the central bank.Fed chair Jerome Powell will likely offer more insight into the Fed's thinking following Trump's victory. He has expressed confidence in the economy's direction in recent months, saying during remarks in late September that "overall, the economy is in solid shape.""We intend to use our tools to keep it there," he said.However, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/october-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-11">recent jobs data</a> will make it difficult for the central bank to give a clear vision of its upcoming decisions. The economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, well below the 106,000 forecast, primarily because Hurricanes Milton and Helene — along with the Boeing strike — put people temporarily out of work, artificially driving down the employment figures.It will take time for Americans to feel the impact of interest rate cuts, given the lag in monetary policy, meaning credit cards, housing, and car loans won't see immediate relief.The 25-basis-point cut was in line with market predictions. Still, some Democratic lawmakers urged the Fed to implement another 50-basis-point cut to give Americans continued financial relief. On November 1, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and John Hickenlooper wrote in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/final_-_warren_hickenlooper_letter_to_fed_renovember2024ratecut.pdf">letter</a> to Powell that housing costs "are still too high," and bigger rate cuts are warranted."If the Fed moves forward with more rate cuts, housing prices and mortgage rates would thus also likely drop, allowing more families to achieve the American dream," they wrote.

The Federal Reserve gives Americans another interest rate cut

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Despite having an <keyword id="20005305" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MBA" source="keywords">MBA</keyword>, Marcial Quinones has struggled to find stable work after 1,500 applications.</li><li>Quinones said his <keyword id="20221864" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="job-search" source="keywords">job search</keyword> may be hindered by AI, lack of recent experience, and <keyword id="23301318" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="overqualification" source="keywords">overqualification</keyword>.</li></ul>Marcial Quinones, 48, used to have few problems getting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-seekers-careers-interviews-assessments-hiring-2024-6">jobs</a> in the 1990s without a high school diploma. Now, after what he estimates is over 1,500 applications since the early 2010s, he can't land any <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennial-cant-get-hired-bachelors-degree-men-cant-find-jobs-2024-5">stable job</a> in his field even with an MBA. Quinones, a father of four who lives in rural eastern Pennsylvania, said he's struggled to land a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cant-get-hired-laid-off-many-job-applications-few-interviews-2024-8">long-term job</a> in tech or counseling. He has held part-time positions and built his own inventory software to sell to companies, though he rarely gets interviews, even after redoing his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/resume-tips-google-software-engineer-skills-experience-careers-software-tech-2024-3">résumé</a> two dozen times. "I wish there was an easier way, but traditional ways of looking for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-grad-gave-up-six-figure-jpmorgan-finance-job-satisfaction-2024-8">employment</a> have been overshadowed by <keyword id="19904566" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="artificial-intelligence" source="keywords">artificial intelligence</keyword> and lack of human interaction," Quinones said, noting his applications are likely thrown out due to his recent lack of work experience. Quinones is one of many Americans with traditional work credentials who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-collar-jobs-remote-office-workers-cant-get-hired-2024-9">can't land a decently paying, stable job</a>. This comes at a time when getting a college degree is much <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/college-degree-good-job-market-skill-based-hiring-employers-2024-2">more necessary</a> to landing a well-paying job. Quinones shared his difficulties with securing work, as well as some reasons he may be falling through the cracks. <h2>A rocky but successful start</h2>Quinones said he had a difficult upbringing with an "abusive" stepfather. He lived in various youth shelters and dropped out of school in seventh grade, and he had his first child shortly after entering a transitional independent living facility at 18. "At that point in my life, I was trying to change everything and become better because I knew that I would be a father," Quinones said. "I started taking things more seriously and tried to figure out what to do with my life." He became interested in computers and found side jobs helping the Salvation Army and other businesses fix their technology. By 18, he applied for technical jobs, doing contract work in the 1990s when companies were rolling out computers at the office. Without a high school diploma, he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/linkedin-open-to-work-banner-badge-job-pros-cons-2024-9">got a job</a> as head technician for a computer company in Arizona, then landed a role for Intel in 1999. He worked there as an IT manager for a year before getting laid off. Feeling behind his peers because he did not have a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/student-loans/is-college-worth-it">college degree</a>, he enrolled at a community college in 2002, where he got his associate degree in computer programming. While there, he also worked part-time for the school's IT department. He moved with his wife and children to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/california-move-arizona-conservative-3-months-politics-returned-2024-4">Arizona</a> to be closer to his wife's family. Given that a four-year degree was increasingly becoming a prerequisite for many positions, he received a bachelor's degree in computer programming. Still, he said the job market in Arizona was "extremely difficult." He wanted to progress his career, so he enrolled in an MBA program in technology management. He secured a job in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-jersey-affordable-housing-lottery-how-single-mom-won-apartment-2024-8">New Jersey</a> as chief technology officer for an import and export company. However, two years into his job in 2010, he faced a difficult situation in his family that cost him his job, which he said was "extremely difficult to recover from." <h2>Can't find a job</h2>Since then, he said he's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennial-looking-job-cant-get-hired-college-degress-entry-level-2024-7">struggled to find anything</a> relevant to his skill set. He couldn't land anything beyond a first-round interview for IT roles. He recalled making Facebook posts in the early 2010s searching for work, only to be met with negative comments. "I've walked into local businesses to start talking about working, and I'm told that I would not be happy working there because it is not part of my high-skilled profession," Quinones said. "This is even after not including my education not to become overqualified. However, when they reviewed my work history, it was clear I am." Quinones said he struggled with alcoholism, from which he recovered eight years ago. He began bodybuilding as his therapy, and he took part-time positions just to stay afloat. He created an inventory management software program, hoping to expand it to many clients. He secured some contracts for his software with businesses like a restaurant in Puerto Rico and a Christmas company, and he worked on inventory with small startups to help them grow. He was offered full employment at a company, given it would use his software, though the company wouldn't compensate him for his software outside his salary. Additionally, he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/framing-prices-cost-expensive-posters-art-photos-business-money-2024-2">printed images</a> on stickers, shirts, and bottles for side income and drove for Uber, though he recalled often working 14 hours and only making $70 a day after expenses. He volunteered at a middle school implementing his software for improving students' math performances, selling some licensing agreements to parents. He said his wife works remotely as a sales supervisor for a company in Arizona, which has kept his family of six afloat. Over the last decade, he's found ways to cut costs for the family, such as doing car repairs or plumbing fixes without calling in experts. In 2015, desperate for job security, he enrolled in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/masters-degree-rely-parents-financial-support-nyc-2024-7">master's program</a> in family and marriage counseling as a backup plan, though he ran out of financial aid with four classes left and dropped out. A few years later, when he considered returning, he was told only half of his classes counted due to a curriculum change. He received advice from career counselors to "finish my master's degree in counseling, which is not easy because of the cost," Quinones said, noting he had to pause any further education while recovering from surgery. He added hiring managers "would not give me a chance even though I had three years of education." He's still in touch with career coaches from his previous universities, and they've offered workshops, résumé and cover letter reviews, and job recommendations to help him stand out. He began catering every application specifically for each role, sending personalized emails to hiring managers, but he only got two emails back from recruiters saying they would keep him in mind for positions. <h2>Why landing a job is so difficult</h2>In total, he said he's applied for about 1,500 jobs <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/laid-off-6-times-cant-find-job-50s-retirement-worry-2024-7">unsuccessfully</a>, getting five to 10 rejections daily this year, screenshots shared with BI show. He's redone his résumé over 25 times, spending $300 for a professionally created one that yielded zero interviews — which he got partially refunded. He's asked his friends in IT and project management to review his applications. He said he's in a middle ground: He's overqualified for many entry-level positions but underqualified for jobs in related industries. He acknowledged hiring expectations have skyrocketed over the past few years. He even tried removing some educational background on his applications to seem less qualified to no avail. He believes many of his rejections are for positions that companies legally have to post but give to internal candidates or recommendations. "I used to get interviews for jobs where I beat out 600 people," Quinones said. "Now, it's hard to get a job when you don't have a foot in the door to interview." He also suspects his race as a Latino American may have hindered his job search. Once, a company told him it wasn't accepting new applications, though they gave one to his wife, who is white. He also used a shortened version of his middle name, Tony, on an application instead of Marcial, which increased his interview rate. He added that because technology changes rapidly, he may be behind on what many jobs expect applicants to have, particularly with AI. Given his location about 30 miles from any cities, he's focused on finding a remote position, though these have been dwindling and getting more competitive. "If you haven't been employed in a while, I can't magically snap my fingers and make it happen," Quinones said, noting employers may be skeptical of gaps in his work history. Are you struggling to find a job? Reach out to this reporter at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:nsheidlower@businessinsider.com">nsheidlower@businessinsider.com</a>. Correction: September 24, 2024 — An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that Quinones turned down job offers before and during his MBA.

A Gen Xer with an MBA can't get a job despite over 1,500 job applications. He said his degrees have been useless.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Expect a re-acceleration of inflation for the rest of 2024 into 2025, says Michael Landsberg.</li><li>High shipping rates and daily living expenses indicate that inflation could be worse than expected.</li></ul>A few months ago, it seemed like the war on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/higher-long-term-inflation-outlook-investing-strategy-attractive-bonds-stocks-2024-10">inflation</a> had been won.Wall Street strategists were expecting inflation to continue cooling down into 2025, clearing the way for a series of consistent rate cuts as the Federal Reserve insisted price increases were no longer a threat. In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that prices rose 2.4% from last year — closing in on the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, wasn't so sure. He saw signs in the market pointing to a re-acceleration of inflation in the last few months of 2024 and into 2025.Now, it seems like Landsberg may be right. After a Trump victory, concerns about inflation are creeping up again as proposed policies such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-hit-company-stock-profits-hardest-china-investing-manufacturing-2024-11">tariffs</a> could push prices up. And as the October CPI report showed, inflation is back on the rise, with prices increasing 2.6% year-over-year. In an interview with Business Insider, Landsberg shared the economic indicators he's watching to monitor inflation and the best way to prepare your portfolio in case of another flare up.<h2 id="7dc40d47-f3ee-4de6-bd68-d838e6c9299f">'Higher for longer'</h2>Inflation could rise to 3% as early as January and hit a mid-3% level in 2025, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to continue its rate-cutting cycle, in Landsburg's view. He's expecting the Fed to pause rate cuts in December.Landsberg believes the Bureau of Labor Statistics' metrics aren't providing the full inflation picture. He's keeping his eye out on other economic indicators that provide a more on-the-ground look at inflation levels.First, rising Chinese shipping rates are a telling sign of inflation. China is one of the US' biggest trading partners, so an increase in transportation costs between the two countries will likely trickle down and reflect in consumer prices.Geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea are contributing to the price increases, as shipping companies are forced to detour and choose longer and more expensive routes, according to Landsberg.With <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-fed-rate-cuts-red-sea-attacks-panama-canal-shipping-2024-1">12% of global trade</a> passing through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea region is a critical trade route for consumer basics such as oil, cars, raw materials, and electronic components. As a result, these blockades are putting pressure on global supply chains and shipping costs.<div type="image" title="Shanghai Containerized Freight Index" height="663" width="1185" msid="115308890" hostid="261" sizebytes="33696"></div>The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, which tracks the current spot freight rates for containerized cargo departing from Shanghai, China, has remained elevated in 2024 after spiking earlier this year due to the continued blockade of the Red Sea by Houthi rebels."Shipping costs don't affect margins of companies as much as they're going to affect people's wallets, and that's not getting looked at," Landsberg said.Landsberg also points to the high prices of commodities and everyday necessities. Food prices and rents are still rising. In some East Coast metro areas, rents have risen over double digits since last year, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.redfin.com/news/rental-tracker-october-2024/">Redfin</a>.Insurance prices are another strong indicator of inflation, whether it be for cars or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/states-most-at-risk-climate-change-rising-home-insurance-premiums-2024-10">homes</a>."Inflation in insurance, which everyone has to have all the time, is up double digits year-over-year," Landsberg said. "That affects people's wallets certainly more than just a printed CPI number."That's not to mention the potential of wage inflation. According to October's employment report, hourly wage growth was up 4% from this time last year. If Trump clamps down on immigration, then that number could go even higher as the supply of workers falls, pushing up the cost of labor.<h2 id="102f3015-2817-4d7e-8b5c-6ea2e030d247">Rebalance your portfolio</h2>Diversification is key in an inflationary environment by spreading out risk between sectors and asset classes, but you might be less diversified that you think, according to Landsberg.One mistake that Landsberg sees investors making is doubling down too much on a specific investment theme. Investors bullish on AI may have devised creative ways to play the AI trade outside of the technology sector, such as buying data center real estate investment trusts and utility stocks. This can give them a false sense of security in their portfolio, as it seems like they're exposed to multiple different sectors.However, if all of your investments across sectors are based on the AI theme, you won't experience much derisking.Landsberg points to the market selloff in August this year, where utilities and real estate indices fared better than technology, but individual real estate and utilities stocks with significant exposure to data centers didn't perform so well."I tell people now that we need to be diversified on themes, not just on sectors," Landsberg said. Some other secular growth themes that Landsberg believes will drive stocks include an aging population, cybersecurity, and alternative energy.In addition to making sure you're sufficiently diversified, there are some other steps that you can take to protect your portfolio from inflation. Landsberg identified a few inflation-benefitting trades such as energy, financials, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-in-gold-price-record-highs-safe-haven-2024-10">gold</a>.Some funds that provide exposure to these sectors include the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/the-energy-select-sector-spdr-fund-us81369y5069?miRedirects=1">XLE</a>), the iShares US Financials ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-us-financials-etf-us4642877884?miRedirects=1">IYF</a>), and the Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/goldman-sachs-physical-gold-etf-us38150k1034?miRedirects=1">AAAU</a>)As the end of the year draws near, Landsberg recommends taking a look at your portfolio and rebalancing some positions. If you're overexposed to technology and AI, now is a good time to put money in more inflation-resistant areas.Ultimately, make sure you're investing in high-quality companies with a robust financial profile, he said."You need to have a portion of your portfolio that will do well if inflation starts to move back higher," Landsberg said. "You want companies with pricing power, companies with earnings growth."

Here's how to rebalance your portfolio as these economic indicators flash 'higher for longer' inflation and rates

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A power pendulum of sorts is constantly swinging back and forth between employees and employers.</li><li>The businesses are back on top these days as employees lose much of the pandemic power they held.</li></ul>Gone are the days of a plethora of work-from-home jobs and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quiet-quitting-hustle-culture-coasting-viral-work-debate-2022-9">quiet quitting</a>. These days, most American workers may be more worried about being laid off than having to choose between <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/great-resignation-still-going-layoffs-low-job-openings-quits-high-2022-11">dueling job offers</a> — that is if they even have a job.The businesses are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/employers-still-have-power-in-job-market-great-resignation-2022-6">back on top.</a>Amazon dealt a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ceo-return-to-office-mandate-5-days-week-2024-9">death knell to its hybrid work model</a> this week, eliminating one more mode of flexibility its workers gained amid a national reckoning over work in recent years.The force of the US economy has slowly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ravin-jesuthasan-why-companies-enforce-rto-mandates-future-of-work-2024-8">stripped employees of the power</a> they briefly amassed in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic (or, depending on who you ask, continued to deprive them of a power they never truly had. More on that later).A power pendulum is constantly swinging back and forth between employers and employees, guided by market forces and an ever-changing economy. Sometimes, workers have an outsize influence over their employers, using their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/salary-raise-controversial-tactic-job-interview-counteroffer-employer-2022-11">leverage to score better working conditions</a> and increased pay. Other times, employers have the power to set workplace norms, and workers are better off keeping their heads down."When one side — capital vs. labor, for example — gets too much power or becomes too dominant, there tends to be pressure to eliminate or equalize that power," said Arne Kalleberg, professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and author of "Good jobs, Bad Jobs: The Rise of Polarized and Precarious Employment Systems in the United States."While individuals are powerless to control the whims of the market, there are steps employees can take to stay ahead of the swing and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tips-score-raise-even-in-economic-downturn-recession-ceo-2024-8">remain desirable</a> regardless of who holds the workplace power.<h2 id="e88933ec-7368-4791-9f6c-8386fb6e3537">The pendulum of power</h2>While an effective visual metaphor, the pendulum comparison is admittedly imperfect. The cyclical nature of shifting workplace power does swing back and forth between employers and employees, but not automatically. Historical, economic, and social factors all help determine who has control at any moment.Think of it as a supply-demand phenomenon: Whenever the labor market gets tight, and employer demand for workers exceeds the number of available workers, employees gain greater choice and, thus, power. Conversely, during a loose market, when the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-job-market-unemployment-rising-federal-reserve-interest-rate-cut-2024-7">number of workers exceeds</a> the number of available positions, employers have the upper hand.The pattern dates back to at least the late 1800s, Kalleberg said, citing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gilded-age-mansions-photos-wealth-2024-9">The Gilded Age</a> as a pivotal turning point in American employment norms. From the late 1870s through the early 1900s, the country experienced a period of rampant markets and unprecedented employer power, leaving workers disadvantaged and exploited.<div type="image" title="Black and white photo of men standing outside an employment agency during the great depression" height="1875" width="2500" msid="113549863" hostid="261" sizebytes="278826"></div>A mere three decades later, however, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-caused-the-great-depression">power pendulum swung back</a> toward workers with The New Deal, which included unemployment relief and minimum wage legislation, among other worker rights. The pendulum swung on and on through the neoliberal markets of the 1970s and the 1990s employment boom.Which more or less brings us to the post-pandemic <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quitting-job-big-stay-great-resignation-labor-market-economic-outlook-2024-1">present</a>."COVID arrived like a meteor killing the dinosaurs," said Gerald Davis, a professor of business administration at the University of Michigan and author of "The Vanishing American Corporation: Navigating the Hazards of a New Economy." "It changed the way that companies think about the nature of the employment relationship."But while academics and experts agree that the pandemic was an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/work-from-home-remote-work-changed-economy-pandemic-2023-4">inflection point for American employment</a>, there's much less concurrence about who actually got the power.<h2 id="b5427f5e-40de-4289-bc57-012bceeb8632">COVID changes</h2>The pandemic era gave us <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/great-resignation-what-to-know-who-is-quitting-2021-9">The Great Resignation</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-great-resignation-reshuffle-gen-z-millennials-quitting-switching-careers-2021-10">The Great Reshuffle</a>, workplace trends that saw a certain type of white-collar worker gain the freedom to quit their job and score higher-paying positions at other companies with relative ease. Millions of US workers quit their jobs during the pandemic market boom, leading to a two-decade-high resignation rate.Cat Ward, vice president of employer mobilization at employment nonprofit Jobs for the Future, attributed the reshuffling to employers being forced to reckon with a number of sudden changes, including COVID, shifting generational workplace demographics, the rise of artificial intelligence, and diversity, equity, and inclusion <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dei-programs-america-diversity-equity-inclusion-pushback-how-to-fix-2024-2">(DEI) measures</a>."We've seen this moment over the last four years where there's been a pretty incredible <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/workforce-innovation-series-c-suite-worker-well-being-dei-2024-6">amount of innovation and change</a>," Ward said. "Employers have been on their heels to try and adapt to all this change, and that has put more power in the hands of workers."Kalleberg, however, suggested the narrative of a pandemic boom in employee power was largely overblown. Sure, some employees were able to work from home. Some employees transitioned into higher-paying roles. But much of the COVID-era shifts in workplace norms were <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/essential-workers-coronavirus-hazard-pay-layoff-protection-ppe-2020-5">unequally distributed</a>, he said."For a moment there, it looked like essential workers were going to get a better break, but that seems to have dissipated," Kalleberg said.<div type="image" title="People holding signs that say &quot;Make them pay!&quot; alongside other people" height="1333" width="1777" msid="113549865" hostid="261" sizebytes="139660"></div>While there have been some mini-wins for workers in recent years — Kalleberg pointed to the recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2023-year-of-the-strike-unions-sag-aftra-uaw-2023-12">rejuvenation of union activity</a> as one example — the pandemic ultimately cemented an already-existing pattern of increasing employment polarization, he said. The country has steadily seen a rise in high-wage jobs and low-wage jobs, alongside the hollowing out of middle-tier, semi-skilled positions, Kalleberg said.And with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-will-change-most-jobs-employers-help-workers-keep-up-2024-8">generative AI already knocking at the door</a> of many industries, more workplace change is all but guaranteed, experts said. But whether the burgeoning technology will help put power in employer or employee hands remains to be seen.<h2 id="3de5911d-bafe-41ef-ad9c-b27ec471af8a">How to avoid the pendulum's swing</h2>As <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/layoffs-sweeping-us-these-are-companies-making-cuts-2024">layoffs mount</a> across sectors and qualified job seekers <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/applied-hundreds-jobs-struggling-get-hired-bridge-job-2024-6">rack up rejections</a>, employees are facing a dearth of workplace power.While workers can't avoid the power pendulum's effects entirely, there are steps they can take to prioritize resiliency and ensure they remain employable even during a downturn, experts said.One of the most important things workers can do during good times and bad is to build and maintain a flexible mindset, especially when it comes to where they're looking for jobs, according to Ward."Step No. 1 is to always look at where there are more <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-top-20-recession-proof-jobs-by-salary-growth-payscale-2022-12">recession-proof </a>career opportunities," she said.Healthcare, government, technology, nonprofits, education, and accounting are all areas that typically experience stability even during tough economic times, experts said. Meanwhile, industries like tech, media, real estate, and entertainment <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-2023-safest-jobs-at-risks-economists-2022-11#:~:text=Professionals%20who%20have%20the%20most,disabled%2C%20Bartosz%20Sawicki%20told%20Insider.">tend to downsize during a recession.</a>Employees should invest in their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-gen-z-can-build-social-capital-at-work-2021-9">professional social capital</a> as well, Ward said. She encouraged workers to seek out a mentor or get involved in community professional groups, many of which help people rebound after a layoff.Workers will be best-served during difficult times if they adopt a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/a-learning-mindset-is-critical-for-success-says-haleons-us-cmo-katie-williams-2024-6">learning mindset</a> and invest in continual skills development regardless of what the markets are doing, experts said. Holding credentials with market value and relevance can pay off big-time when companies are looking to make cuts.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/community-college-becoming-popular-for-gen-z-to-avoid-debt-2023-5">Community colleges</a> are a great place for people to start, Kalleberg said. The local institutions often offer an array of classes on various subject matters at an affordable price."We can't depend on employers to teach those skills because they won't," he added. "They stopped doing it because they feared they would lose workers."In addition to acquiring technical skills, employees should focus on developing durable human skills, like communication and leadership, Ward said, especially as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-use-ai-in-business-industry-leaders-panel-2024-4">AI becomes more prevalent</a> in the workplace.<div type="image" title="ChatGPT" height="1667" width="2500" msid="113549861" hostid="261" sizebytes="155226"></div>"People should really be thinking about what it is that humans can uniquely do in the workplace," Ward said.But even as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-job-market-replacing-workers-competition-job-losses-artificial-intelligence-2024-7">machines become ubiquitous</a>, the professional outlook for humans isn't entirely doom and gloom."I'm very impressed by the potential of AI," Kalleberg said. "It's going to eliminate jobs, but it's also going to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-jobs-al-will-create-no-collegee-degree-chatgpt-2023-11">create many more."</a>Artificial intelligence will offer workers endless information at their fingertips, which could eventually <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-use-ai-save-time-work-best-ways-use-chatgpt-2024-9">give them a leg up</a> in terms of skill-building, he said. Workers who have previously lacked solid skillsets will suddenly be able to use technology to enhance the skills they do have or acquire new ones, according to Kalleberg, who suggested the invention could even be one way of rebuilding the middle class.If that turns out to be true, it's only a matter of time before the pendulum swings yet again, and employees take back the power, experts said.And for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/american-employees-disengaged-work-meaningless-fake-email-jobs-2024-6">America's millions of workers</a>, that day can't come soon enough."Employers have had their way for a long time," Kalleberg said.

The employment power pendulum is always swinging. Here's how workers can stay ahead.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Happy Friday! Elections can be stressful, so take some tips from new research on how to lower your blood pressure. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lower-your-blood-pressure-5-minutes-exercise-a-day-study-2024-11">Daily short, intense workouts</a> can be your best bet to fight disease and improve longevity.In today's big story, the Fed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cutting interest rates yesterday was never really in doubt</a>. What comes next isn't as clear.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Goldman Sachs announced <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partners-revealed-see-full-list-names-diversity-women-2024-11">its newest class of partners</a>.</li><li>Tech: The stock market is already indicating <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-winners-losers-trump-election-win-according-to-market-2024-11">winners and losers among Big Tech</a>.</li><li>Business: Hiring experts are predicting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-affect-job-hiring-trends-and-employer-confidence-2024-11">a "Trump bump" for the jobs market</a>.</li></ul>But first, more relief … for now.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">The Fed's new conundrum</h2><div type="image" title="Jerome Powell on top of stock market chart going down." height="900" width="1800" msid="115090330" hostid="261" sizebytes="70080"></div>Americans got a bit more relief from the Fed, but questions are swirling about what the president-elect means for future plans.The Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cut interest rates by 25 basis points Thursday</a>, its second-straight reduction since September in a move that was largely expected. Additional rate cuts aren't as clear, though, as Donald Trump's proposed widespread tariffs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-inflation-interest-rates-fed-rate-cuts-fomc-meeting-outlook-2024-11">could slow down the Fed's plans</a>.Economists have said Trump's 10-20% blanket tariff on most imported goods will cause inflation to flare up as producers and importers pass the cost of the tax onto consumers. Prior to the election, Nobel economist Paul Krugman said Trump's tariff plans would result in an "inflationary shock that is bigger than almost anything else you could do through federal policy."It's not just speculation from economists. The market is indicating inflation could lead the Fed to keep borrowing rates high. Treasury yields soared the day after the election, a sign Wall Street sees interest rates staying elevated.Interest-rate traders have also recalibrated their expectations. The chances of a 25-point December rate cut went from 83% at the start of the month down to as much as 63% yesterday following the Fed's announcement, according to the CME FedWatch tool. (It currently stands around 75%.)<div type="image" title="Photo of Donald Trump" height="1279" width="1920" msid="115090327" hostid="261" sizebytes="95086"></div>Still, speculating on what could come from a president-elect is a tricky game.Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at <a target="_blank" href="http://Bankrate.com">Bankrate.com</a>, told Insider Today that Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't indicate a pause in cuts was coming in December during Thursday's press conference. Powell also emphasized the election won't impact the central bank's near-term actions, McBride added."Until there are policy specifics being passed into law, there is nothing for the Fed to put in their economic models and they won't speculate or assume anything in the interim," McBride wrote via email.There's also the question of whether Trump's tariff would be as inflationary as some fear. During his first term, the former president issued tariffs against China that didn't cause prices to spike.Trump's proposals this time around are much more aggressive, but it's not clear what will actually be put in place."Nobody knows what will be implemented and what is just posturing for negotiation," McBride added.Dominique Lapointe, director of macro strategy for Manulife Investment Management, told Insider Today via email the firm's base case is still a 25-point cut in December. The Fed would change course in reaction to tariffs only if they are official and making an impact, meaning the central bank's policy likely wouldn't change until mid-2025, Lapointe added.One thing that is clear: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/powell-wont-resign-federal-reserve-step-down-trump-election-2024-11">Powell's not leaving</a>.When a reporter asked the Fed leader if he would resign if Trump, who has been critical of him, asked him to step down, his response was simple: "No."<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Democrats wished the election was about jobs. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-won-election-high-prices-cost-of-living-unemployment-2024-11">Trump's win showed it was about prices</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-local-government-debt-rescue-trump-us-presidential-election-2024-11">China announced a $1.4 trillion stimulus package</a> to boost its economy on the heels of Trump's election.</li><li>Airbnb reported its earnings. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airbnb-earnings-shares-most-interesting-things-cohost-2024-11">Here are four highlights</a>.</li><li>Trump said he will divide Russia from China. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-plan-divide-china-russia-axis-is-likely-fail-2024-11">It's a tough bromance to break</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-prediction-correct-election-trump-harris-2024-11">Peter Thiel's 'contrarian'</a> election prediction came true.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of MAGA hat on exchange desk" height="655" width="1000" msid="115090331" hostid="261" sizebytes="44410"></div><ol><li>Morningstar thinks you should stay the course with your investment plan. Trump's win sent the stock market surging, but that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-election-investing-stock-market-strategy-sp500-valuations-morningstar-2024-11">doesn't mean you should rethink your investing strategy</a>, Morningstar Senior US Market Strategist Dave Sekera said. His call for restraint is partly due to how high stock valuations currently are, although he does see opportunity among small-caps.</li><li>The new Goldman execs who just got the call of a lifetime. Goldman Sachs tapped<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partners-revealed-see-full-list-names-diversity-women-2024-11"> 95 people to join its exclusive partnership</a> on Thursday, a record high under CEO David Solomon. Twenty-six of the new partners are women, a group closely watched after a series of high-profile female partner exits.</li><li>Trump's election might be Citi's saving grace. The bank has spent more than $7.4 billion addressing regulators' concerns, specifically about its data and risk problems. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-election-citi-jane-fraser-regulators-frc-occ-2024-11">Donald Trump could ease that pain</a>. The president-elect has signaled he'd cut down on Wall Street oversight, previously pledging he'd eliminate 10 rules for each new one.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Musk and Trump." height="2499" width="3329" msid="115090332" hostid="261" sizebytes="268836"></div><ol><li>How Elon Musk swung Pennsylvania for Trump. The tech tycoon <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-pennsylvania-america-pac-donald-trump-harris-2024-11">spent millions on the Keystone State</a> to deliver it to Trump, launching a last-minute canvassing effort and untested ground-game techniques. Musk's strategy could usher in a "new era" in campaign spending, one political scientist told BI.</li><li>Big Tech's biggest winners and losers after Trump's victory. Which companies stand to gain the most under a new Trump presidency? BI looked at the two-day stock performance of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-winners-losers-trump-election-win-according-to-market-2024-11">many of the largest tech companies to find out</a>.</li><li>Trump's plan to "never ban" TikTok will be tough to fulfill, legal experts say. The former president campaigned on the promise that TikTok would be here to stay. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-block-tiktok-ban-legal-experts-2024-11">But legal experts told BI he's only got two options to try and save it</a> — and neither of them are straightforward.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Image of Walmart sign outside store" height="1280" width="1920" msid="115090336" hostid="261" sizebytes="228442"></div><ol><li>Retail giants prepare for Trump 2.0. Tariffs are the biggest concern for superstores like Walmart, Target, and Costco. If the president-elect follows through on his campaign promises, consumers could foot the bill of high tariffs through higher prices. On the other hand, tax cuts could spur spending — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-retail-impact-walmart-costco-target-tariffs-tax-cuts-2024-11">but they'd take many months to see results</a>.</li><li>The job market under Trump. Hiring experts expect a "Trump bump" as employers get comfortable posting openings now that the election's outcome is clear. They forecast a postelection hiring rush and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-affect-job-hiring-trends-and-employer-confidence-2024-11">increased demand in some sectors</a>, particularly tech.</li><li>David Zaslav is optimistic about Trump's effect on Big Media. The Warner Bros. Discovery CEO wanted a president who was more open to M&amp;A, since his company has been eyeing consolidation for a while. A second <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wbd-trump-zaslav-consolidation-earnings-2024-11">Trump administration might provide that opportunity</a>, Zaslav said on WBD's earnings call, but it's too early to be certain.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>The Polymarket 'whale' actually made $85 million, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">far more than originally thought</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-lost-biden-unpopularity-trump-election-2024-11">Harris couldn't escape</a> Biden's unpopularity.</li><li>Investors accuse the ex-CEO of the company that helped take Trump Media public of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-ceo-patrick-orlando-lawsuit-trump-media-investors-shares-2024-11">stiffing them out of millions of shares</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Paramount, Sony, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>Grammy Award nominations are announced.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

Fed cuts rates again, but Trump's tariff plan sparks inflation fears and market uncertainty

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes rose Thursday to continue a post-election rally after the Fed cut interest rates.</li><li>The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, a smaller move compared to its September meeting. </li></ul>Indexes ended higher on Thursday, extending a post-election rally after the Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut at the end of its latest policy meeting. The Nasdaq jumped 1.5% to a new record high, while the S&amp;P 500 climbed 0.8% to a new record. The Dow Jones Industrial Index was nearly flat after surging by more than 1,500 points on Wednesday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,973.10, up 0.74% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,729.34</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,269.46, up 1.5%</li></ul>Major indexes gained as the Fed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cut rates by 25 basis points</a>, which was widely expected after an initial jumbo 50 basis point cut in September.Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed will continue to be data dependent, but that it is prepared to adjust its easing pace as necessary.Though some noted after the meeting that the Fed's tone may have sounded less confident about the path of inflation, noting "progress" has been made rather than the previous wording of "further progress," analysts were unconcerned."The Committee had used this language as a threshold to start cutting, so we interpret its removal as a reflection of the fact that the cutting cycle is already underway rather than as an indication of reduced confidence in the inflation outlook," analysts from Goldman Sachs said in a Thursday note.CPI data has been slightly sticky above the Fed's 2% target, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">latest report</a> showing inflation cooled in September but less than economists had expected.The labor market, on the other hand, appears to be a smaller source of stress for the Fed, but Powell said it's "prepared to adjust the pace and destination" of easing as the jobs data evolves."There seems to be less anxiety about the risk of rising unemployment and slowing job growth," Fitch Ratings chief economist Brian Coulton said in a Thursday note.The latest employment data, released Thursday, shows weekly jobless claims increased slightly to 221,000, a gain of 3,000 from the week before and in line with expectations.Investors seem hopeful Trump's light regulatory stance and proposals for corporate tax cuts will make for a more friendly business environment. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-trump-deregulation-tax-cuts-evercore-2024-11">Evercore ISI this week predicted</a> the S&amp;P 500 to jump 11% by next summer as the rally accelerates in Trump's second term. Powell said the election outcome will have "no effect" on the Fed's policy in the near future and reiterated that the Fed does not speculate on any administration's potential impact on the economy.Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11?miRedirects=1">The Polymarket "whale" made a lot more</a> than previously thought betting on Trump to win. </li><li>Stocks are entering "Crazy Town" as valuations near generational highs. </li><li>Stocks tied to Russia rally as Trump's win <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-stocks-trump-win-ukraine-war-putin-zelenskyy-2024-11?_gl=1*7o1w4e*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTAxMTE0MC4zNzguMS4xNzMxMDEzMTI1LjYwLjAuMA..">fuels hopes</a> for an end to the Ukraine war.</li><li>Trump's win created a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/wealthiest-people-in-world-net-worth-increase-trump-victory-stocks-2024-11?_gl=1*1kcs0b*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTAxMTE0MC4zNzguMS4xNzMxMDEzMTUyLjMzLjAuMA..">record $64 billion</a> of net worth for the world's 10 richest people.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures were up. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> rose 0.5% to $72.06 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 0.7% to $75.42 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose climbed 1.4% to $2,713.80 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury fell nine basis points to 4.335%. </li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was up slightly to $76,505.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Stocks extend post-election rally as the Fed cuts interest rates

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This is an excerpt from the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>One down. One to go.Wednesday's interest-rate cut might have marked the end of the Fed's fight with inflation, but it also signaled the start of another battle with an equally formidable foe: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-explained-inflation-labor-market-conditions-outlook-recession-2024-9">the job market</a>.The central bank's jumbo cut shows the concern isn't prices continuing to go up, but the number of available jobs going down.Fixing the labor market is a tricky thing. It's not as if millions of people are out of work. The unemployment rate sits at 4.2%, which is pretty good. (Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it was close to what you'd call "maximum employment," and sees it inching up to just 4.4% by the end of this year.)But finding a gig <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/finding-job-awful-right-now-drop-in-openings-tough-search-2024-9">is proving particularly difficult</a> for those without jobs or unhappy in their current ones.Lower rates mean cheaper borrowing costs, which could lead companies to start hiring again. But there's a snag here, too. The key lending benchmark for everything from mortgages to corporate debt, the 10-year US Treasury yield, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-outlook-impact-of-rate-cuts-10-year-treasury-yields-2024-9">actually increased yesterday</a>.That's because the market is forward-looking and had already started pricing in the rate cut before the announcement.It's also not necessarily a bad thing. The 10-year US Treasury yield going slightly up is a sign investors aren't expecting a recession, as that would require the Fed to quickly drop rates, but it also means borrowers might not get much relief soon.Still confused? <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unraveling-link-between-federal-reserve-rate-hikes-real-borrowing-costs-2023-8">Here's a full explainer</a> on the dynamic between the Fed and the 10-year US Treasury yield.<div type="image" title="Rocket Ship on a graph" height="1000" width="2000" msid="113525901" hostid="261" sizebytes="78070"></div>Meanwhile, the stock market is loving this post-rate-cut environment.Investors' favorite trade over the past year-plus — artificial intelligence — <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-interest-rate-cut-ai-stocks-nvidia-broadcom-asml-tech-2024-9">was booming on Thursday</a>. Shares of Nvidia, Broadcom, and ASML all surged. And the tech-heavy Nasdaq index finished the day up 2.51%.Meanwhile, the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both closed at all-time highs.The good times could keep rolling if past Fed policy is an indication of future returns. The central bank's strategy looks awfully similar to its approach to avoiding a recession in 1995, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/interest-rates-fed-cuts-recession-us-economy-outlook-1995-2024-9">according to one economist</a>.Back then, the Fed eased rates from 6% to around 4.75% over three years. Along the way it sparked an economic boom and sent the S&amp;P 500 soaring 125%.Meanwhile, the cut poses unique challenges for both presidential candidates.Former President Donald Trump downplayed the cut as either a sign of how bad the economy is or an example of the central bank "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cut-trump-fed-powell-reaction-independence-history-2024-9">playing politics</a>."While Vice President Kamala Harris would normally celebrate the move as evidence of the economy's turnaround, doing so risks backing Trump's claim <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-inflation-kamala-harris-election-impact-2024-9">that it was a partisan move</a>.The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

The good, bad, and ugly of life after rate cuts

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Chelsey Nelson, 33, moved from Seattle to Australia in 2021.</li><li>She pays up to 45% taxes but was able to buy a $1 million house.</li></ul>This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/chelseypnelson/?originalSubdomain=au">Chelsey Nelson</a>. It has been edited for length and clarity.In 2019, I met the man who would become my husband at a hospital in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/carnival-rio-de-janeiro-brazil-first-time-afro-brazilian-2023-3">Rio de Janeiro during Carnival</a>. It made for a great story but a logistical challenge. Aiden was Australian, and I lived in Seattle. We traveled to be together for the next few years when we could. After COVID shut down the world, we were apart for 10 months, each stuck in our home country.We looked at our options. For Aiden to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mistakes-moving-to-america-from-uk-2023-11">move to the US</a>, we would need to get engaged, which we weren't quite ready for. Plus, there would be a period of time when he wouldn't be able to work.On the other hand, I could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/living-half-year-in-uk-half-in-australia-what-its-like">move to Australia</a> on a partner visa without being engaged or married. I'd be able to work immediately. So, in 2021, I packed my bags and moved to Brisbane, Australia, a city I'd never been to before.<h2 id="9d583d47-cbec-4f78-8c95-4bd9e83a4953">I pay much higher taxes here</h2>One of the biggest differences financially is the tax rate. We pay 37% taxes on our income up to $190,000 (Australian dollars) and 45% on anything over that. Back home in Washington state, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/states-where-middle-class-income-earners-pay-most-taxes-income-2024-4">there's no state income tax</a>, and we'd only be taxed at 24%.Hearing I'd be paying up to 45% was shocking, but I feel like I can see where my tax dollars are going here in Australia. I have Medicare, so I don't have to worry about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/4-surprising-medical-costs-how-to-avoid-2023-4">unexpected medical costs</a>. It's not entirely free, though — I pay $1,300 annually for additional coverage because I'm over the age of 30.There are smaller benefits, too. Recently, my city reduced all public transit rides to 50 cents. I know my tax dollars are at work whenever I take the train, bus, or ferry.<h2 id="135a71e5-1b54-4315-b4fb-10f248144922">Saving for retirement is easier for me</h2>Back in the US, I had to ask companies I worked for whether they offered a 401(k) retirement plan, let alone a company match. In Australia, all companies are required to contribute 11.5% of an employee's salary to a superannuation retirement account. So, if you're offered a $100,000 salary, you earn $111,500 when you invest in retirement savings. Even if you work part-time or don't save any additional money, your employer must set aside that money.That really sets Australians up to have something when they retire. In the US, it feels like the employee should ask for retirement savings or put aside money on their own. I already have about $35,000 in my retirement account here.<h2 id="419fd843-3d18-4840-b67f-085e3ea91fe2">Housing prices are very high, but we don't pay property tax</h2>I paid over one million for a three-bedroom, two-bathroom house that's about 15 minutes outside the city. It's nothing special — just a postwar cottage in the style that this state is known for. The price felt comparable to Seattle but higher than much of the US.One benefit is that we don't pay property taxes. We paid a one-time Stamp Tax when we bought the house, which cost $36,000. I figure if we stay here for five years, we'll break even on the amount we would have paid in property tax in the US. Plus, it's predictable — we own the home without worrying about rising property tax rates. That's something I see my mom stress about back in Washington.<h2 id="7f92c2ce-7b9c-4fd1-9e2c-bc3138a79f47">I'm still not sure about having kids</h2>I'm on the fence about having kids for financial reasons and their impact on my career. I worry that if we have a child, it will be a setback in my career. Here in Australia, Medicaid would cover the birth and medical costs. Even though Aiden and I both make six figures each, we would receive a small government stipend for childcare. Still, I feel like we couldn't afford two children with all the costs of school and sports.<h2 id="e62263c6-a24b-4d76-8f7d-f279e9b05c08">I have way more time off</h2>One of the best parts of working in Australia is the amount of time I have off. I get four weeks of vacation time and two weeks of sick time (which can also be taken to care for someone else). I get 10 paid public holidays, so I have about an additional two weeks off, and my company gives me my birthday off, too.There's also unlimited unpaid leave. I took four and a half weeks off earlier this year for my wedding, and my boss is encouraging me to take another three at Christmas.

I moved from the US to Australia. My employer contributes over 11% to my retirement, and I don't pay property taxes.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady during its July meeting.</li><li>However, some economists predict the Fed will cut interest rates in September.</li></ul>The nation's central bank <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-september-not-july-inflation-federal-reserve-powell-2024-7">didn't give interest rate relief</a> to Americans — yet.On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee announced it would be leaving interest rates unchanged, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-timeline-federal-reserve-inflation-powell-economists-forecast-2024-7">continuing the pause</a> that began last fall. The decision comes after continued positive economic data: the consumer price index, which measures inflation, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-june-prices-food-energy-fed-interest-rate-cuts-2024-7">rose 3.0%</a> year over year in June, cooling down from May's 3.3% reading.And with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-job-growth-june-economic-data-2024-7">labor market slowing down</a> while avoiding a recession, the Fed might have the evidence it needs to cut interest rates at its next meeting in September."After a lack of progress toward our 2 percent inflation objective in the early part of this year, the most recent monthly readings have shown modest further progress," Fed Chair Jerome Powell told members of the Senate Banking Committee earlier in July. "More good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent."Powell has not confirmed that rate cuts are in the cards in September, instead maintaining that the Fed needs continued positive economic data before it feels confident to lower interest rates. However, predictions point to a rate cut — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch</a>, which estimates probabilities of interest rate changes based on the markets, showed markets think it's far more likely than not that rates will ease."There continues to be positive indicators that this may be the last meeting before we see an interest rate reduction at the next Fed meeting in September, with the possibility of a second rate reduction for 2024 still on the table," Michele Raneri, vice president and head of US research and consulting at TransUnion, said in a Tuesday statement.The high interest rates have meant it's more expensive for Americans to borrow money for things like mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans.Still, some Republican lawmakers — and former President Donald Trump — have accused Powell of intentionally choosing to lower rates before the presidential election to help Democrats win. During a February interview with Fox News, Trump said that Powell is "going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates," adding that "it looks to me like he's trying to lower interest rates for the sake of maybe getting people elected."Some Democratic lawmakers pushed Powell to ignore the Republican critiques of the Fed's potential timeline for rate cuts. On Wednesday, Sens. Elizabeth Warren, John Hickenlooper, and Sheldon Whitehouse sent a letter to Powell saying that failure to cut rates "would indicate that the Fed is giving in to bullying, and is putting political considerations ahead of its dual mandate to 'promote maximum employment and stable prices.'"Powell has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-presidential-election-wont-impact-timing-powell-trump-2024-4">frequently said</a> that the Fed is not political and the decisions the central bank makes are purely based on economic data.This is a developing story, check back here for updates.

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