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<keyword id="173176" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="emkay" source="Orion">Emkay</keyword> Institutional Equities, a part of Emkay Global Financial Services, expects <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> will likely witness a sub-five per cent inflation in the early part of 2023, with an average rate of Consumer Price Index at 5.2 per cent for the entire calendar year. The <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>'s monetary policy actions, forecast of a normal monsoon this year, and supply-side constraints getting addressed will help with ease in inflation in India, the research house Emkay said. Lead Economist at Emkay Global Financial Services Madhavi Arora led a media roundtable around the outlook for the Indian economy, the next steps of the RBI, the impact of the <keyword id="117388" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="us-fed" source="Orion">US Fed</keyword> hiking key interest rates, the Indian rupee, and the inflation trajectory in India. "Retail inflation is likely to ease well below the 6 per cent aim of the central bank. The CPI inflation will likely slip below the 5 per cent level later this year and average 5.2 per cent for CY23," it said. In India, headline consumer price index-based (CPI) inflation (or retail inflation) has gradually declined from its peak of 7.8 per cent in April 2022 to 5.7 per cent in March 2023. Assuming an annual average crude oil price (Indian basket) of USD 85 per barrel and a normal monsoon, CPI (or retail) inflation is projected to moderate to 5.2 per cent for 2023-24 in India as estimated by RBI in its April monetary policy meeting; with Q1 at 5.1 per cent; Q2 at 5.4 per cent; Q3 at 5.4 per cent; and Q4 at 5.2 per cent. Under the flexible inflation targeting framework introduced in 2016, the RBI is deemed to have failed in managing price rise if the CPI-based inflation is outside the 2-6 per cent range for three quarters in a row. India's retail inflation was above RBI's 6 per cent target for three consecutive quarters and had managed to fall back to the RBI's comfort zone only in November 2022. On US <keyword id="45672" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="fed" source="Orion">Fed</keyword>'s possible stance, the research house Emkay said the US central bank is expected to remain "static" in the coming months and cutting rates by early next year. It also believes the US will face a "moderate recession" with a hard landing. Emkay Global believes the fear that "speed can kill" has led to a dovish turn from a number of central banks in both developed and emerging markets. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/indigo-airlines-stock-to-surge-further-as-go-firsts-troubles-mount/articleshow/100009541.cms">The skies are clearer for IndiGo stock to surge further as Go First’s troubles mount</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/ecommerce/news/amazon-great-summer-sale-2023-best-deals-on-monitors-and-computer-accessories/articleshow/100010580.cms">Amazon Great Summer Sale 2023 – best deals on monitors and computer accessories</a>

Retail inflation in India expected to average at 5.2% in 2023: Emkay

Shares of <keyword id="6357150" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="tcs" source="Orion">TCS</keyword> declined nearly 3 per cent in initial trade on Tuesday after the company's December quarter results failed to cheer investors. The stock fell 2.67 per cent to Rs 3,231 apiece on the BSE. At the NSE, it declined 2.70 per cent to Rs 3,230.10 apiece. It was the biggest laggard among the Sensex and Nifty components. The 30-share BSE Sensex quoted 437 points or 0.72 per cent lower at 60,310.31 in morning trade. "TCS has given a muted quarter where despite the growth in revenue from operations, the same is not reflected in the profitability. The last quarter of the fiscal remains a key watch out as the macro-economic environment changes will bring clarity across economies," said <keyword id="16017595" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="urmi-shah" source="Orion">Urmi Shah</keyword>, Analyst, <keyword id="2956711" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="samco-securities" source="Orion">Samco Securities</keyword>. India's largest IT services company, TCS, reported an 11 per cent rise in December quarter net profit to Rs 10,846 crore, restricted by a narrowing of profit margins, but sounded sanguine about the deal pipeline. Its overall revenue rose 19.1 per cent to Rs 58,229 crore for the reporting quarter, but it was a 0.5 per cent narrowing of the operating profit margin to 24.5 per cent that limited the overall profit growth. "TCS delivered better-than-expected revenue growth in Q3, while margins came a tad below our expectations," according to a report by <keyword id="105309" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="emkay-global-financial-services" source="Orion">Emkay Global Financial Services</keyword>. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/overall-demand-scenario-not-changed-significantly-but-europe-is-a-problem-says-tcs-ceo/articleshow/96859049.cms">Overall demand scenario not changed significantly but Europe is a problem says TCS CEO</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/hdfc-capital-raises-376-million-under-alternative-investment-fund-for-affordable-housing-adia-is-primary-investor/articleshow/96857455.cms">HDFC Capital raises $376 million under alternative investment fund for affordable housing; ADIA is primary investor</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/indias-credit-worthiness-to-be-stable-in-2023-but-upcoming-elections-could-keep-social-spending-elevated-moodys/articleshow/96851926.cms">India’s credit worthiness to be stable in 2023, but upcoming elections could keep social spending elevated: Moody’s</a>

TCS shares fall nearly 3% after earnings announcement

The <keyword id="6354813" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="Orion">Nifty</keyword> of NSE is to attain a level of 19,500 by the end of next year and the <keyword id="6484188" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sensex" source="Orion">Sensex</keyword> of the BSE at 64,500, forecast <keyword id="141615" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="emkay-global" source="Orion">Emkay Global</keyword> Financial Services. Emkay Global expects Nifty to attain a level of 19,500 by December 2023 given the current situation. "Barring any major change in the global macro-economic and geo-political set-up Sensex at 64,500 indicating a 7-8 per cent increase from the current levels," the company said. Largely, the increase in Nifty-50 profit after tax (PAT) in CY23 will be led by Banks, Auto OEMs and Ancillaries, Oil &amp; Gas, and the IT companies, the company added. While the movement of the dollar index, the depth and amplitude of a possible global slowdown/recession, and the timing of the Fed's pivot remain key factors that may impact markets. Back home, the RBI seems to not be too restrictive, and will probably be following the Fed's moves. The period for which it stays on pause and eventually starts cutting rates will be keenly watched by the market participants, Emkay Global said. According to Nirav Sheth, CEO - Institutional Equities, Emkay Global, the movement of the dollar index continues to be a cause of concern due to the sheer impact it has on multiple things. "We expect a further instalment of rate hike by the US Fed and the RBI thereby strengthening the respective currencies. We expect RBI to go on a long pause by 2QCY23," Sheth said. The higher-for-longer interest rates, and a sudden rise in Brent crude oil prices are potential challenges for the market in the next 6-12 months, said Sanjay Chawla, Head, Institutional Research, Emkay Global "A capex intensive budget by the government may spur investment; however global and domestic growth uncertainties may act as an impediment. Given the current scenario we see Nifty-50 fair value of around 19,500 by end CY23; we expect aggregate profit growth of Nifty-50 to be fairly resilient at around 15 per cent in CY23," Chawla said. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/fpis-return-to-indian-equities-in-the-second-half-of-2022-but-bond-flows-are-still-in-the-red/articleshow/96563652.cms">FPIs return to Indian equities in the second half of 2022, but bond flows are still in the red</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/personalities/news/top-five-billionaires-in-2022-elon-musk-gautam-adani-and-bill-gates/articleshow/96509847.cms">After a round of musical chairs, Musk, Gates and Adani are among 2022’s top 5 billionaires</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/psus-stage-a-comeback-in-2022-and-the-future-looks-healthy-say-analysts/articleshow/96522444.cms">Public sector enterprises stage a comeback in 2022 thanks to PSU banks – the future looks healthy, say analysts</a>

Nifty to reach 19,500, Sensex 64,500 by Dec 2023: Emkay Global

The price of cement is hardening across the country and since August this year, the rates have gone up by ₹16/per bag, said <keyword id="152070" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Emkay-Global-Financial-Services-Ltd" source="Orion">Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd</keyword>. According to a report by the company, in November the prices went up by about ₹6-7/bag. While the prices remained flat in Western and Central parts of the country, the rates hardened in Northern, Eastern and Southern regions, Emkay Global said. According to the report, the cement companies are attempting further price hikes of ₹10-15/bag across the country this month. "Absorption of the price hikes will get revealed over the next few days. With the financial-year change (from December to March) by ACC and Ambuja, volume push by these companies is likely to be limited in December. This is positive for the pricing trend in the near term," Emkay Global said. "We expect the industry's profitability to increase by move r than ₹200/ton QoQ (even higher for Eastern region players) in Q3FY23, with improving cement prices along with peakout of operating cost in Q2FY23," it added. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/only-half-of-indian-listed-companies-set-net-carbon-emissions-commitments-wtw/articleshow/96032489.cms" style="">Only half of Indian listed companies set net carbon emissions commitments: WTW</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/indian-beauty-brand-rene-cosmetics-raises-25-million-in-series-b-funding-led-by-evolvence-india-edelweiss-group/articleshow/96031563.cms" style="">Indian beauty brand RENÉE Cosmetics raises $25 million in Series B funding led by Evolvence India, Edelweiss Group</a>

Cement makers plan to hike price by ₹10-15 per bag

<keyword id="6378916" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="cement" source="Orion">Cement</keyword> companies are planning to hike the price between Rs 10 and Rs 30 per bag in November after a increase of about Rs 3-4/bag last month, said <keyword id="141615" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="emkay-global" source="Orion">Emkay Global</keyword> Financial Services Ltd. Emkay Global in a recent sectoral report said the average pan-India cement price increase was about Rs.3-4/bag in October 2022. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, prices rose by 2-3 per cent in the East and South, and about one per cent in the West; while declining 1-2 per cent in the northern and central regions, the report said. "Cement companies are attempting price hikes of Rs10-30/bag across regions in November 22. Absorption of these price hikes will be uncovered over the next few days," said Emkay Global. Industry volumes likely to have declined by a high single-digit YoY and a low double-digit MoM, in October 22, owing to a high base, as the festive season was spread across October-November last year. According to the report, a delayed exit of monsoons and labour shortage owing to festive holidays impacted demand in October 22. The demand is expected to improve in upcoming weeks, with all major festivals ending and given the onset of a busy construction season. The cost pressure is expected to ease in coming quarters for the industry players and the industry margins are expected to bottom out in Q2, with peaking of costs, higher exit of cement prices and pick-up in construction activities in coming quarters, said Emkay Global. The international petcoke prices are down by about 30 per cent from the peak of $195/tonne. Further the dip in the fuel prices are expected to provide cost savings of at least Rs 150-200/tonne from Q3FY23, Emkay Global said. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/health/news/myositis-the-condition-affecting-actress-samantha-prabhu-is-more-common-among-adult-women-say-doctors/articleshow/95304784.cms">Myositis – the condition affecting actress Samantha Prabhu – is more common among adult women, say doctors</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/delhi-pollution-air-quality-severe-for-3rd-straight-day-noida-records-529-aqi-gurugram-at-478/articleshow/95313876.cms">Delhi pollution: Air quality 'severe' for 3rd straight day; Noida records 529 AQI, Gurugram at 478</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/kv-kamath-appointed-independent-director-of-reliance-industries-jio-financial-services/articleshow/95313728.cms">KV Kamath appointed independent director of Reliance Industries, Jio Financial Services</a>

Cement companies plan price hike of ₹10-30 per bag

At a time when there are many risks and uncertainties in the global economy, a 20 per cent allocation to <keyword id="18712" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold" source="Orion">gold</keyword> ETFs in an investment portfolio during Diwali is ideal, said <keyword id="594214" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="quantum-amc" source="Orion">Quantum AMC</keyword>. In a statement issued on Monday, Quantum AMC said the correction in the gold prices from the peak has made the metal affordable this festive season. "To make the most of the correction, we recommend investing in efficient products such as gold ETFs (exchange traded funds) to maximize the benefits," Quantum AMC said. Owning physical gold comes with additional costs such as making charges, retail premiums, storage concerns, and lower buyback value. On the other hand, gold ETFs are highly liquid, incur no making charges, and ensure exposure to insured pure gold. Also, the buy-sell spreads are tight making ETFs price efficient. The rise in the US interest rates and the likelihood of the hawkish stance of the <keyword id="6355253" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="federal-reserve" source="Orion">Federal Reserve</keyword> converting itself into rate hikes which may go well into the next year as well may keep gold prices at the lower end of the range, <keyword id="105309" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="emkay-global-financial-services" source="Orion">Emkay Global Financial Services</keyword> said in a recent report. "The current spell of gold weakness may continue till there is more concrete information on the state of the economy in the major economies, especially against the background of an aggressive central bank trade-off unfavourable to growth and promoting stability," Emk ay Global remarked. Generally, gold is considered as a hedge against inflation but this time around it does not seem so. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/pvr-reports-net-loss-of-71-23-crore-in-q2-attributes-it-to-bollywood-hollywood-flops/articleshow/94917917.cms">PVR reports net loss of ₹71.23 crore in Q2, attributes it to Bollywood, Hollywood flops</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rupee-falls-19-paise-to-82-38/usd-as-foreign-outflows-weight-on-investor-sentiment/articleshow/94916562.cms">Rupee falls 19 paise to 82.38/USD as foreign outflows weight on investor sentiment</a>

20% allocation in gold ETF a better investment strategy: Quantum AMC

Cricket fans in the country are in for a real blast from the past as fabled legends of the game from across the globe descend on the field once again in Season 2 of the <keyword id="12534811" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="legends-league-cricket" source="Orion">Legends League Cricket</keyword> that will get underway from September 16-October 5. The organisers have announced <keyword id="540922" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="disney-star" source="Orion">Disney Star</keyword> as the official broadcasters of the tournament that will witness all the 16 matches being aired on the Star Sports Network and Disney+ Hotstar. The legends of cricket representing ten cricketing nations will regale fans with not only competitive and exciting cricket but also revive the nostalgia and timeless rivalries that these players shared between them. "The way we had envisioned the League and all the partners that have. We have India's best Sports broadcaster showcasing the <keyword id="12920317" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="legends-league" source="Orion">Legends League</keyword> and the finest Sports Commentators and Analysts will be bringing forth the matches to innumerable cricket fans across the country. Am really happy that the best and finest in the business of Cricket are stakeholders in our journey," said <keyword id="2443329" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="raman-raheja" source="Orion">Raman Raheja</keyword>, CEO and Co-Founder of Legends League Cricket. Speaking about acquiring the Legends League Cricket Rights, a Disney Star spokesperson said, "We are delighted to associate with the Legends League Cricket for Season 2. Disney Star is home to the best of cricket properties, providing fans with memorable moments to cherish. We look forward to elevate the experience of Legends Cricket League through our unique brand of story-telling, and programming." With top Indian business houses, Adani Sportsline, GMR Sports, Manipal Group and the LNJ Bhilwara Groups owning the four franchise teams Gujarat Giants, India Capitals, Manipal Tigers and <keyword id="14886978" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="bhilwara-kings" source="Orion">Bhilwara Kings</keyword> respectively, the biggest names from the cricketing world will be seen taking the field and challenging each other in this exciting tournament. SEE ALSO : <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/pvr-inox-gain-650-crore-market-cap-after-brahmastras-100-crore-opening-weekend/articleshow/94154703.cms">PVR, Inox gain ₹650 crore market cap after Brahmastra’s ₹100 crore opening weekend</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/power-generation-rises-marginally-in-july-aug-on-heavy-rain-emkay-global/articleshow/94153694.cms">Power generation rises marginally in July-Aug on heavy rain: Emkay Global</a>

Disney Star acquires broadcast rights of season 2 of Legends League Cricket in India

The power generation in first two months of the second quarter of current financial year rose marginally by 1.5 per cent on-year due to heavy rainfall during these months, <keyword id="105309" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="emkay-global-financial-services" source="Orion">Emkay Global Financial Services</keyword> said in a report. This was sharply lower than 16 per cent growth in the first quarter of the current financial year, which had the impact of low base due to Covid-19. August generation has been less than 1 per cent. On a 3-year CAGR basis, growth for the two months has been 3.5-5 per cent. "A closer look into the electricity demand pattern suggests that heavy rains during July-August 2022 (up 30 per cent <keyword id="63194" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="yoy" source="Orion">YoY</keyword>) might be the main reason for the same. Both residential and agricultural demand has high corelation to weather conditions. As the rainy season recedes, we believe growth in power demand will normalize to the medium-term figure of ~5 per cent," the report said. <keyword id="209265" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="hydro" source="Orion">Hydro</keyword> growth has been strong at 10 per cent, while Thermal and RE growth stood flat to moderate at 2 per cent. While, coal production reported 11.4 per cent and 8.3 per cent YoY growth for July and August, respectively. Coal dispatch is up 8.5 per cent/5.4 per cent YoY for the two months, although there was some tapering in growth. As per report, overall coal dispatch has been ~7 per cent for these two months, the power sector has received ~14 per cent higher coal in August 2023 as against August 2022 - YTD numbers stand at 20 per cent. This is good compared to last year, when India faced good demand upsurge during Sep-Oct and many thermal units did not have enough inventory. SEE ALSO : <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/satellite-internet-provider-hughes-communications-india-on-monday-announced-the-commercial-launch-of-indias-first-high-throughput-satellite-hts-broadband-service-powered-by-the-indian-space-research-organisation-isro-as-the-elon-musk-run-spacex-abandoned-its-affordable-internet-project-starlink-in-the-country-/articleshow/94151236.cms">Hughes, ISRO launch satellite internet service in India as Musk's Starlink disappears</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/lenskart-and-mirae-asset-capital-sign-up-with-razorpay-for-online-transactions/articleshow/94150744.cms">Lenskart and Mirae Asset Capital sign up with Razorpay for online transactions</a>

Power generation rises marginally in July-Aug on heavy rain: Emkay Global

The <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) move to relax regulations to boost foreign exchange inflows will not have any material change in receipts, but certainly helpful in directional forex signalling to speculators, said <keyword id="141615" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="emkay-global" source="Orion">Emkay Global</keyword> Financial Services Ltd. Reacting to RBI's moves on Wednesday, Emkay Global in a report said: "While these measures to boost capital account are helpful, they may not have a material impact on flows. Nonetheless, they will still ease the pressure of the RBI to intervene to some extent." According to Emkay Global, with low forward premia, this mobilisation may still make some sense for banking entities. The timing of RBI's move coincides with the typically strong remittance/deposit season that comes with the beginning of the festive season. This can take the pressure off banks to raise domestic deposits amidst accelerating credit growth, and also somewhat cool-off domestic borrowing rates, Emkay Global said. The easing of all the available channels of foreign portfolio investors (<keyword id="725142" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="fpi" source="Orion">FPI</keyword>) investments in debt may not lead to material change in FPI flows given the free limits that are already available. However, the new tenors added in Fully Accessible Route (FAR) securities are fairly active. "Thirdly, the all-in cost ceiling under the <keyword id="60971" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="ecb" source="Orion">ECB</keyword> (external commercial borrowings) framework is also being raised by 100 bps, subject to the borrower being of investment grade rating, however we seek more clarity on this front as to whether it leads to any change in caps (from existing 450bps), and if it makes sense for domestic good investment-grade borrowers to borrow in foreign currency, except when they are facing a credit crunch back home," the report said. While it is debatable if these steps can lead to significant flows, they could be effective in preventing speculative attacks on the currency and giving directional policy signals to the markets, Emkay Global added. The key measures announced by RBI on Wednesday were: 1. Cash Reserve Ratio + Statutory Liquidity Ratio (CRR+ SLR) exemptions: Incremental FCNR Bank and Non-Resident External (NRE) deposit liabilities now exempt from <keyword id="626944" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="net-demand-and-time-liabilities" source="Orion">Net Demand and Time Liabilities</keyword> (NDTL) computation for maintenance of CRR and SLR. Transfers from Non-Resident Ordinary (NRO) accounts will not qualify for this relaxation. This relaxation is available till November 4, 2022. 2. Interest rates on FCNR and NRE deposits: Banks are temporarily allowed to raise fresh FCNR(B) and NRE deposits without having to adhere to the regulations on interest rates on these deposits. 3. FPI debt investment: Easing all the available channels of FPI investments: (i) All new issuances of 7-year and 14-year G-secs (including fairly active current issuances of 7.10 per cent GS 2029 and 7.54 per cent GS 2036 <keyword id="1351125" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="ato" source="Orion">Ato</keyword> be now covered under Fully Accessible Route (FAR). At present, 5-year, 10-year and 30-year tenors are covered. (ii) FPI investments in G-secs and corporate debt will not be subject to the short-term limit, i.e., not more than 30 per cent of investments in G-secs and corporate debt can have a residual maturity less than one year. (iii) FPIs can invest in commercial papers and non-convertible debentures with an original maturity of up to one year as against earlier mandate of at least one year. These investments will not be included as part of the short term limit on investments in corporate securities. 4. Foreign currency lending by banks: Banks can utilise overseas foreign currency borrowings (OFCBs) for lending for a wider set of purposes, not just export finance. The measure is expected to facilitate foreign currency borrowing by a larger set of borrowers who may find it difficult to directly access overseas markets. 5. ECB limits: The limit for ECBs under the automatic route has been raised from $750 million to $1.5 billion per financial year. The all-in cost ceiling has also been raised by 100bps. The measures 2-5 above are valid till 31st October 2022, Emkay Global said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/stopped-russian-imports-in-april-says-essar-oil/articleshow/92714422.cms">Stopped Russian imports in April says Essar Oil</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/space/news/elon-musk-is-confident-that-humanity-will-reach-mars-in-our-lifetime/articleshow/92714414.cms">Elon Musk is confident that humanity will reach Mars in our lifetime</a>

RBI's moves to boost forex inflows could have an impact on domestic borrowing rates

The <keyword id="14184962" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-currency-rupee" source="Orion">Indian currency rupee</keyword> breached the Rs 78 mark against the dollar for the first time ever on Monday, hitting a new lifetime low against the US dollar. The rupee closed Monday's trade at Rs 78.04 per US dollar, after depreciation as low as Rs 78.29 in intra-day deal. "There is no fresh trigger to predict if the rupee will be 79 or 80 unless and until there is a conflict between US and China with regards to Taiwan, other than that there shouldn't be any correction towards 77 or 77.50 in the spot," said <keyword id="105309" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Emkay-Global-Financial-Services" source="Orion">Emkay Global Financial Services</keyword> in a note. The rupee might see more weakness ahead of the US monetary policy review meeting starting later this week, where the <keyword id="117388" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="us-fed" source="Orion">US Fed</keyword> is expected to hike rates and showcase a more aggressive action, said <keyword id="14184963" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="jigar-trivedi" source="Orion">Jigar Trivedi</keyword>, <keyword id="162421" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="research-analyst" source="Orion">Research Analyst</keyword>, Commodities &amp; Currencies Fundamental, Anand Rathi Shares &amp; Stock Brokers. However, runaway depreciation might not happen amid the central bank's intervention, Trivedi said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/indian-equity-markets-wiped-out-127-billion-investor-wealth-in-just-two-days/articleshow/92181381.cms">Indian equity markets wiped out $127 billion investor wealth in just two days</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.in/tech/enterprise/news/simplilearn-is-looking-to-hire-800-people-including-160-freshers-this-year/articleshow/92181229.cms">Edtech startup Simplilearn bucks the trend — to hire 800 people this year</a>

Rupee breaches the ₹78 mark against the dollar for the first time ever

<ul><li>There is more than the optics of the low base effect in India’s GDP growth data for April-June 2021.</li><li>Emkay Global has raised the estimated GDP growth for the full year ending March 2022 to 10.1%.</li><li>The economic growth between April and June 2021 was close to the consensus estimates.</li><li>The gross value added growth was led by robust manufacturing and construction while services bore the brunt of the second wave of the pandemic. </li><li>Check out the latest news and updates on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/">Business Insider</a>.</li></ul>Factors such as better-adapted firms and policy response, stable financial conditions and robust global growth spillovers have created growth buffers back home. The catch up in the vaccine drive will further help the delinking between mobility and virus proliferation ahead and aid the pick-up in contact sensitive services sector. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Metric </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">April-June </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Emkay Global estimate </td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">April-June GDP </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">20.1% </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">21.3% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">April-June GVA </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">18.8% </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">19.2% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">April 2021 - March 2022 estimate </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">- </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">10.1% </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody></table> We revise up our GDP growth to 10.1% but it may still be around 5-6% lower than the pre-pandemic expected growth path. We reckon the nascent recovery ahead may partly still be led by capital and profits and have traces of scarring and segmented labor market and sub-optimal effective fiscal policy stimulus. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Sector </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">April-June 2021 GVA growth </td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Manufacturing </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">49.6% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Construction </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">68.3% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Private sector </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">25.2% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Utilities </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">14.3% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Agriculture </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); vertical-align: top; padding: 5pt; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">4.5% </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody></table>GVA: Gross value added However, exogenous demand drivers, in the form of exports and sustained government capex, will need to create a growth bridge till private investment and consumption recover to optimal levels. To policymakers’ credit, a public investment push appears key to their growth revival strategy. Policy support, in the form of physical and social infra outlays, will have a large multiplier effect on jobs (even for the bottom of the economic pyramid) and, eventually, catalyse private investment. This, in conjunction with initiatives like sustained privatisation, tax reforms, expenditure re-alignment will likely create fiscal space to fund public investment. However, the sustainability of the recovery needs to be monitored, especially as it might partly be led by capital and profits. It may have traces of scarring and segmented labour markets. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/marutis-r-c-bhargava-says-india-has-not-been-able-to-build-an-economy-as-strong-as-its-neighbours-calls-countrys-health-infra-inadequate/articleshow/85598180.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink">Maruti’s R C Bhargava says India has not been able to build ‘an economy as strong’ as its neighbours, calls country’s health infra ‘inadequate’</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/tesla-inches-closer-to-its-india-debut-as-four-models-approved/articleshow/85792404.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink">Tesla inches closer to its India debut as four models approved</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/prosus-buys-indian-payment-gateway-firm-billdesk-in-one-of-the-countrys-biggest-fintech-deals-ever/articleshow/85790849.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink">Prosus buys payment gateway firm BillDesk in one of India's biggest fintech deals ever</a>

OPINION: India’s economy may be growing faster than expected as the second wave of the pandemic was less damaging than most had feared

<keyword id="10839615" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="wholesale-growth">Wholesale growth</keyword> is expected to continue for <keyword id="6387952" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Tractors">tractors</keyword>, <keyword id="410427" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="passenger-vehicles">passenger vehicles</keyword> and <keyword id="6379214" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="two-wheelers">two-wheelers</keyword> said equity research firm <keyword id="173176" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Emkay">Emkay</keyword>. As per its sectoral update, channel checks indicate better retail sales for tractors and PVs, while it remains subdued for 2Ws on a YoY basis. "Tractor industry wholesales should grow strongly at more than 25 per cent on better retails and channel filling." "Volume growth is expected to be positive across regions." According to the update, PV industry volumes are likely to remain in the positive territory, with industry growth at over 15 per cent. "Domestic volumes should grow... on a low base which resulted from supply issues present in the year-ago comparable period." "Discounts have declined YoY - by up to 2 per cent of vehicle prices." Notably, the update expected domestic 2W volume performance should be mixed YoY. "Volume performance in South, East and West regions has been better than the North region." "Retails have declined in the North region due to the weakness in entry-level segment and lower marriage season demand. Executive and premium motorcycles are doing better than entry-level motorcycles. In comparison, exports are expected to be strong across regions, except for the ASEAN market." In addition, the update pointed out that domestic CV volumes will be a mixed bag. "MHCV demand has been improving on strong Tipper or ICV demand and a gradual recovery in replacement demand as well." "The automobile sector remains a key beneficiary of the economic recovery and low interest rates." SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/bharat-bandh-over-eight-crore-traders-across-india-shut-shop-in-protest-against-rising-fuel-prices-and-changes-in-gst-rules/articleshow/81223361.cms">Bharat Bandh – over eight crore traders across India shut shop in protest against rising fuel prices and changes in GST rules</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/banks/news/ignore-low-cibil-score-for-street-vendor-loans-work-on-holidays-and-other-diktats-from-indian-government-to-banks-rushing-to-meet-march-target/articleshow/81223572.cms">EXCLUSIVE: Ignore low CIBIL score for street vendor loans, work on holidays, and other diktats from Indian government to banks rushing to meet March target</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/india-now-allows-you-to-avail-a-discount-on-flight-ticket-if-you-are-not-carrying-a-check-in-baggage/articleshow/81225977.cms">India now allows you to avail a discount on flight ticket if you are not carrying a check-in baggage</a>

Wholesale growth expected to continue for tractors, passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, says equity research firm Emkay

India remains far behind <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="100" keywordseo="China">China</keyword> in terms of 'gross <keyword id="44528" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="FDI">FDI</keyword> inflows' despite a recent spurt, says a new study. 
 Funds are largely coming into the consumption space such as e-commerce and not in manufacturing, therefore, the recent surge in FDI inflows may not give any boost to the government's ambitious '<keyword id="6354869" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="make-in-India">Make in India</keyword>' campaign, the latest research report of leading brokerage firm <keyword id="173176" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Emkay">Emkay</keyword> Global said. 
 

	"The recent media hype over India surpassing China and US in FDI inflows, is supposedly considered an affirmation of the success of 'Make in India'. 
 

	"However, data suggests that FDI flows have centred on exploiting domestic consumption, (and) rather than stimulating domestic manufacturing it is likely to have catalysed imports," it said. 
 

	The report further said that the gross FDI inflows to China far exceeded India by 3.6 times and China's lower net FDI is due to higher investments abroad.
 

	"It will be premature to extrapolate the recent upsurge in FDI inflows as proof of revival in the investment cycle in India," it added. 
 

	Referring to a recent article in British daily Financial Times, Emkay said that the report cited date compiled by 'fDi Markets' to show that India has surpassed China and the US in FDI inflows with a greenfield FDI inflow of USD 31 billion in the first half of 2015. 
 

	In full year 2014, India ranked fifth after China, the US, the UK and Mexico. The 'Make in India' twitter handle also used this data to project evidence of success of this initiative.
 

	"It is indeed true that there has been an increase in FDI inflows (including green field and cross border M&amp;A) into India in the hope of a turnaround in growth outlook, and this bodes well for the external sector to withstand potential BoP (Balance of Payment) volatility arising from potential decline in global excess liquidity.
 

	"However, we believe it will be premature to extrapolate the recent upsurge in FDI as concrete proof of a revival in the investment cycle or aiding the objective of 'Make in India' campaign. Further, the disaggregated data on FDI inflow and outflow (greenfield and cross border M&amp;A) indicates a much different picture compared to the general perception," it said. 
 

	The study further said that "the headline numbers gloss over the message emanating from the details".
 

	Emkay further said that in contrast to India's over indulgence with FDI flows to resuscitate domestic investment cycle, global trends since 2007 show a consistent decline in the relevance of FDI and other external flows in funding investments.
 

	The share of FDI to world gross fixed capital formation (including FDI) has declined from its peak of 14 per cent in 2007 to 9 per cent.
 

	In India, it has declined from 11 per cent to 5 per cent.
 

	It further said that the global FDI activities (inflows and outflows) have slowed recently, particularly in developed economies, even as emerging markets, particularly China and Hong Kong, have remained resilient.
 

	As an investing country, US has seen a sizeable decline from USD three trillion in 2013 to just USD 100 billion in 2014. 
 

	Net FDI flows into China averaged about USD 1 billion for the 12 months ending August 2015, much lower than USD 2.9 billion for India.
 

	"While truncated data like these may have prompted some to conclude that India trumped China, if we consider only the inflows, China has consistently maintained gross inflows of about 3.6-times that of India. 
 

	"Importantly, China has been growing its investments abroad over the past several years, growing at 27-30 per cent since 2009, possibly diversifying fixed investments across other parts of the world," the Emkay study said.
 

	It further said that the rising FDI targets domestic demand rather than supporting 'Make in India'.
 

	"The profile of recent FDI flows is indicative of investments done to tap the domestic consumption rather than to boost exports. Substantial inflows in the last two years have been in the areas of e-commerce, automobiles and cash and carry. Employment intensive sectors such as construction, have seen sharp decline.
 

	"Likewise, conventional manufacturing/investment oriented sectors such as metals, power, oil and gas have seen muted flows. FDI investment in the automobile sector is mostly aimed at targeting domestic demand," it added.
 

	Nearly half of the top private equity deals in 2014 were in consumer technology, which experienced an annual growth rate of 140 per cent. 
 

	"However, we believe that with majority of such investments are going into growth and initial phase of funding with valuations getting expensive, there is a possibility of flows diminishing, going forward.
 

	"Rather than encouraging manufacturing, e-tailing investments in turn, have fuelled imports of consumer electronics. Clearly, in our view, such flows cannot be considered aligned to the spirit of the "Make in India" campaign," it added. 
	 
	(Image credit: Make in India)

India's FDI spurt coming to e-commerce, not 'Make in India': Emkay Global report

New Delhi, <keyword id="20687243" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="zinc" source="keywords">Zinc</keyword> oxide manufacturer <keyword id="20774133" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jg-chemicals" source="keywords">JG Chemicals</keyword> on Thursday fixed a price band of Rs 210-221 apiece for its Rs 251-crore Initial Public Offering (IPO). The initial share sale will open for public subscription during March 5-7 and the bidding for anchor investors will open for a day on March 4, the company said. The Rs 251.2-crore IPO comprises a fresh issue of equity shares worth up to Rs 165 crore and an Offer For Sale (OFS) of 39 lakh equity shares aggregating to Rs 86.2 crore, at the upper end of the price band, by the promoter group. As part of the OFS, Vision Projects &amp; Finvest Pvt Ltd, Suresh <keyword id="20774134" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kumar-jhunjhunwala" source="keywords">Kumar Jhunjhunwala</keyword> (HUF), <keyword id="20774135" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="anirudh-jhunjhunwala" source="keywords">Anirudh Jhunjhunwala</keyword> (HUF) and Jayanti Commercial Ltd will offload equity shares. Proceeds from the fresh issue to the tune of Rs 91 crore will be utilised for investing in JG Chemicals' material subsidiary BDJ Oxides and Rs 35 crore will be used for funding the long-term working capital requirements of the company, besides, a portion will be used for general corporate purposes. The Kolkata-based firm is India's largest zinc oxide manufacturer in terms of production and revenue. It sells over 80 grades of zinc oxide and is among the top ten manufacturers of zinc oxides globally. The tyre industry in India is the largest consumer of its product. The firm also supplies to leading paints manufacturers, footwear players, and cosmetics players in the country. Half of the issue size has been reserved for qualified institutional buyers, 15 per cent for non-institutional investors, and the remaining 35 per cent for retail investors. Investors can bid for a minimum of 67 equity shares and in multiples of 67 equity shares thereafter. Centrum Capital Ltd, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd, and Keynote Financial Services Ltd are the book-running lead managers to the issue. The equity shares of the company are proposed to be listed on both BSE and NSE.

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