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India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

As the vibrant <keyword id="19896655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wedding-season" source="keywords">wedding season</keyword> kicks off in India soon, the <keyword id="19921618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Confederation-of-All-India-Traders" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Confederation of All India Traders" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Confederation of All India Traders">Confederation of All India Traders</keyword> (<keyword id="20143308" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CAIT" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="CAIT" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="CAIT">CAIT</keyword>) has set an optimistic forecast, projecting a windfall for the nation’s economy. According to a recent CNBC report, CAIT predicts that this year, an estimated 48 lakh weddings are expected to take place in November and December, potentially generating a whopping ₹6 lakh crore in business. This surge reflects not just the volume of weddings but the wide-scale economic impact that accompanies such celebrations. Weddings in India are known for their grandeur, with celebrations often spanning several days and involving a number of services, from event planning and catering to jewellery purchases and attire. CAIT’s recent prediction, thus, underscores the vital role that the wedding season plays in the retail market. In this year’s cycle, the retail sector alone is poised to see a turnover of ₹5.9 lakh crore, highlighting the deep interconnectedness between cultural traditions and economic activity. In Delhi, which stands as one of the top locations for extravagant weddings, the expected impact is particularly significant. Approximately 4.5 lakh weddings are projected in the capital city, potentially contributing around ₹1.5 lakh crore to the local economy. This surge benefits a variety of sectors, including hospitality, fashion, gold and jewellery, and even technology, as digital services and e-invitations become more prevalent. The build-up to this wedding season has already shown signs of economic revival, particularly in sectors like gold and jewellery. Suvankar Sen, MD &amp; CEO of Senco Gold, noted a marked increase in wedding-related purchases during the recent Dhanteras festival. Speaking in an interview with CNBC TV-18, Sen highlighted that the August duty cut on gold played a significant role in spurring early buying behaviour. He pointed out that this policy move helped lower the cost of gold, enticing consumers to make significant purchases ahead of the peak wedding months. "We can see at least 40-50% of the consumers who are buying right now are related to weddings, and the 40-50% who are not related to weddings, are divided amongst consumers with a budget of ₹2-3 lakh buying some kind of jewellery as an annual buying during this auspicious time. Some consumers are buying working women's jewellery or lightweight for their daughters, something within ₹50,000 to ₹1 lakh kind of buying happening. ₹20,000-30,000 is a budget consumer at all levels, some kind of a pendant, ring or earring that everyone would like to buy during this auspicious time. So, this is how we are seeing the consumer," he added. This early momentum has translated into packed showrooms and increased consumer spending, signalling a robust start to wedding-related commerce. Retailers across India are now preparing for a flurry of activity, restocking inventory and expanding service offerings to meet the anticipated demand. From wedding attire and décor to luxury items like high-end electronics and custom-made invitations, the shopping lists are extensive, promising a lucrative time for businesses. While traditional sectors such as fashion, catering, and venue rentals will see a boom, new trends have also emerged, expanding the <keyword id="23787664" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wedding-economy" source="keywords">wedding economy</keyword>. The demand for eco-friendly and sustainable wedding practices has grown, with couples seeking biodegradable décor and eco-conscious catering services.

Indian weddings expected to generate ₹6 lakh crore in two months, CAIT says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump won the 2024 election, defeating Kamala Harris in a historic comeback.</li><li>Younger votes tilted red, Latino voters increasingly backed Trump, and spending hit record highs.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">Donald Trump won the 2024 election</a> in a comfortable victory over Vice President Kamala Harris.These five statistics help explain how he did it.<h2 id="fdb61cb4-a8a0-4004-9e43-85c4255f6cda">Democrats' lead with young voters fell by 11 points</h2>America's younger voters shifted to the right in 2024, exit poll data released by the major news networks indicated.(A major caveat: Exit polls have a wide margin of error and as vote counts are finalized, more precise data will emerge. For now, this is what we've got.)It's potentially yet another sign of a Gen Z cohort <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-not-loyal-democrats-elections-data-poll-2024-election-2023-1">not quite sold</a> on the Democratic party.In the youngest age bracket, 18-29, Democrats saw their lead cut by almost half. A 24-point advantage under Joe Biden in 2020 fell to 13 points for Harris.Gen X — the 45-64 bracket — favored Trump, the exit poll said, by a much bigger margin than in 2020.A wrinkle: Those aged 65 and older broke slightly in favor of Harris.<h2 id="fcd6ea86-08d3-4a81-a3a8-88d66b998268">Trump got a 33-point swing with Latino men</h2>Compared with 2020, Latino voters, who make up about 12% of the electorate, had an over 25 percentage point swing toward Trump, based on the exit polling.The exit poll found that Latino men drove Trump's gain, as they voted for him over Harris by 10 points.That eviscerated a 23-point lead for the Democrats that existed under Biden.Harris retained a 24-point lead among Latina women, but it was still a small margin than for Biden.Democrats expected some losses in the Latino vote compared to 2020 but not to this extent.<h2 id="fe707a55-d53f-4e53-b036-aabde11e750f">For two-thirds of voters, it was the economy, stupid</h2>The economy was top of mind for many voters — throughout the election, many ranked it as their No. 1 issue.About two-thirds of voters felt the economy was either "not good" or "poor," exit poll data showed.These economic frustrations likely pushed the needle toward Trump.45% said their financial situation is worse than at the last election, compared to 20% of 2020 voters who felt they were worse off than in 2016.<h2 id="a496f625-8e1e-40e0-b5e3-6cddc8a2c90e">Rural and suburban voters swung red</h2>Trump won or is on pace to win all seven swing states this election.Biden won Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona last cycle, while narrowly losing North Carolina to Trump.On a county level, rural areas remained Trump stalwarts, with support in those areas growing from 2020, the exit poll said.The suburbs — which swung slightly left in 2020 and broke for Biden — turned slightly red again.Cities remained strongly blue.A county-level analysis by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/politics/presidential-election-2024-red-shift.html">The New York Times</a> found that over 90% of counties with mostly finalized results as of Wednesday morning shifted more red.<h2 id="1fac5c51-6a91-46b4-8b25-3de545627d01">Harris' side outspent Trump's by $300 million — and still lost</h2>Harris's campaign committee <a target="_blank" href="https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00828541/?cycle=2024">spent</a> nearly 2.5 times as much as Trump's campaign from the start of this year to mid-October, based on the latest FEC filings.The filings showed $881 million spent by Harris' official campaign, with $355 million for Trump's.Outside groups like super PACS took total spending far higher, to $3.5 billion, the most in history.Per the Financial Times, that shook out at $1.9 billion for Harris and $1.6 billion for Trump.

Latino men, younger voters, the economy: 5 stats that help explain Trump's victory

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil prices ended down 7% last week and are lower this year-to-date, despite Middle East tensions.</li><li>China's economic downturn, the US shale boom, and clean energy are contributing to current oil price trends.</li></ul>The oil markets aren't what they used to be, and two of the world's biggest producers of the commodity are feeling the pressure.Oil prices have been depressed this year because <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-price-today-middle-east-israel-hezbollah-conflict-china-economy-2024-10">China</a> — the world's largest oil importer — is in a prolonged economic downturn. The US' massive boom in oil production over the last 15 years has also kept prices low.Now, Saudi Arabia and Russia are both trying to diversify their economies away from energy, which makes up about 40% and 20% of their GDP, respectively.With the shift, Saudi Arabia and Russia are trying to create new economic engines that can sustain the country for decades, Abishur Prakash, the founder of The Geopolitical Business, a strategy advisory firm in Toronto, told Business Insider.The existential reorientation comes amid what Prakash terms a "geopolitical misalignment," even in the face of a potential supply disruption."The reality is that Middle Eastern oil supplies are in the bull's-eye of geopolitics. A potential back-and-forth between Israel and Iran, which is increasingly likely, will draw in the region's energy ecosystem," he said.But this year, markets have largely shrugged off supply concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict — a break from history, when regional problems sent prices higher.<h2 id="45bcbf13-524d-48a5-aa00-144efa7dd75c">Moving away from oil</h2><a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&amp;t=6.">Saudi Arabia and Russia</a> tied for the world's second-largest oil producer after the US. Last year, they each accounted for 11% of the world's oil supply.While Saudi Arabia and Russia are still the world's top oil exporters, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61584">US — which posted record oil shipments in 2023 — is fast becoming a competitor</a> for market share.In 2016, Saudi Arabia launched a grand <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vision-2030-saudi-arabia-plan-future-proof-oil-economy-2023-8">Vision 2030</a> plan to transform its oil-dependent economy into a more diversified one that includes tourism and sports as key growth pillars.Recently, the kingdom has been indicating that it's frustrated with low oil prices. It's giving up its $100 per barrel price target and is ready to increase oil output, the <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd">Financial Times</a> reported in late September.This means that Saudi Arabia is looking to corner a larger market share instead of targeting higher profit margins by restricting output.Russia has also expressed a desire to stop over-relying on oil exports."We are moving towards reducing the share of volatile income and reducing Russia's dependence on oil and gas in favor of boosting our domestic economy," Anton Siluanov, Russia's finance minister, told <a target="_blank" href="https://russian.rt.com/business/article/1379636-minfin-anton-siluanov-intervyu">RT Television's Arabic</a> service earlier this month.He said that Russia would instead aim to boost its domestic economy but did not specify how.Russia is already moving its trade eastward to address Western sanctions. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.energyintel.com/00000192-ae46-dc01-adba-efff87000000">Saudi Arabia,</a> too, is looking to sell more oil to developing countries, whose electric vehicle adoption lags behind China and the West.Asia's emerging economies are expected to drive <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/global-oil-demand-prices-supply-opec-us-crude-producers-iea-2024-6">global oil demand</a> over the rest of the decade, as the world's consumption rises from 101.7 million barrels a day in 2023 to 105.6 million barrels per day by 2030, according to a June report from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.iea.org/news/slowing-demand-growth-and-surging-supply-put-global-oil-markets-on-course-for-major-surplus-this-decade">International Energy Agency</a>.<h2 id="6ae61431-8898-4c52-9abf-24b4a2055996">Prices, renewable energy, and the US all play a role</h2>Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over fears of a widening war, oil prices haven't been on the climb.To be sure, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-prediction-brent-crude-israel-iran-opec-demand-citi-2024-10">oil prices could still</a> soar if the issues in the Middle East worsen.And there were several price spikes — such as in early October over concerns that Iranian oil facilities could be hit and in August over tensions in the Middle East — but they were shortlived. Oil prices dropped about 7% last week after the concerns subsided.International benchmark <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent</a> crude futures are down about 4% this year to date to around $74 a barrel, and US <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate</a> futures are down 1.3% so far this year to around $70 a barrel.A key contributor to the price trend comes from the US, which has witnessed a significant rise in oil production over the last 15 years following the shale oil boom.Matthew Huber, a Syracuse University professor who specializes in energy, climate politics, and resource geography, said the US has nudged Saudi Arabia out of its role as a swing producer."I think the US has now overtaken this role and because we're not in the Middle East, geopolitical conflict there is less impactful," Huber added.Then there's renewable energy."The explosion of electric vehicle adoption in China (and presumably or eventually in the US and Europe) means the writing is on the wall and we're going to reach 'peak demand' for oil sometime soon," said Huber. "It was always a good idea to diversify one's economy away from just oil but now more than ever."<h2 id="f0b0eb00-b6b7-4f2f-9acd-d2d555ca6010">The role of OPEC</h2>The changing dynamics of oil also sharpens the long-standing question of OPEC's influence and relevance. The oil producer group led by Saudi Arabia accounts for about 30% of global crude production."It goes in cycles. They were obviously relevant in the 1970s when they were able to increase prices almost single-handedly," said Huber."But the problem is when oil prices spike, it sends oil companies searching for temporarily profitable oil," he added, referring to the US shale boom as the most recent example.OPEC also faces rifts within its members, who have competing priorities."The big question now is whether OPEC members are all aligned in terms of oil targets," said The Geopolitical Business's Prakash, who added that not all OPEC members may be on board with Saudi Arabia's plan to boost production.A potential Trump presidency in the US could drive <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-trump-win-election-financials-energy-rbc-2024-10">domestic oil and gas production.</a>"If OPEC can't bring everybody together, and members go their separate ways, it will lead to a further polarization of the Middle East," said Prakash."Instead of energy bringing the region together, like it did in the past, energy coupled with geopolitics could fragment the Middle East," he said.

2 of the world's biggest oil producers are looking for new ways to power their economies

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's war economy ins't in imminent danger of collapse, economist Vladislav Inozemstev said.</li><li>That's because Russia has adapted to the war and looks more stable than it did a few years ago.</li></ul>Russia may stand a better chance at sustaining its war economy than previously thought.That's according to Vladislav Inozemstev, an exiled Russian economist who thinks the chances of an economic collapse in the country have dwindled despite the chorus of experts who predicted a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-crisis-ukraine-war-moscow-inflation-sanctions-putin-spending-2024-10">grim</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-putin-inflation-labor-shortage-rates-2024-5">economic</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-population-decline-worker-shortage-growth-outlook-ukraine-war-2024-8">future</a>.Inozemstev, who has been critical of Putin's regime and left Russia after being labeled as a "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-business-national-security-treason-spying-2024-10">foreign agent</a>" in 2023, said the nation's trajectory looked similar to the Axis Powers in the 1930s, when the group of nations rose to prominence partly due to their "highly effective market economies," he wrote in a recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.memri.org/reports/russias-economic-prospects-2025-and-beyond">op-ed</a> published by the Middle East Media Research Institute. The comparison suggests that Russia will be able to sustain its war-driven economy for longer than many expected, he said, dismissing the notion that Russia was headed for a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-economy-soviet-union-spending-workers-flee-imf-2024-2">Soviet Union-style</a> collapse."The war, formally an 'emergency,' has been rethought as a 'new normal' that can be waged indefinitely. Even though many experts are still talking about the aggravating slowdown in Russia, the Kremlin is mostly right: These days, the economy is the Russian dictator's reliable rear," Inozemstev said. "To conclude, I would argue that Russia seems to have become a long-term threat to the Western world whose chance of economic collapse is extremely small," he later added.Russia's finances appear to have stabilized since the early days of the war, when even the Kremlin <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-collapse-putin-moscow-gdp-outlook-ukraine-war-sanctions-2023-11">admitted the economy was on the verge of collapse</a>.Federal revenue has exceeded expectations for the past several years, Inozemstev noted, rising 28% on an annual basis from the months of January and October, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/107508/">Interfax</a>. Russia also posted a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-records-budget-surplus-01-gdp-jan-sept-2024-2024-10-09/#:~:text=MOSCOW%2C%20Oct%209%20(Reuters),Finance%20Ministry%20said%20on%20Wednesday.">small budget surplus</a> through the first nine months of the year and is estimating only a small budget deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2025, according to data from Russia's finance ministry.Russia's economy has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10">held up</a> partly due to its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-inflation-worker-shortage-2024-2">hefty war spending</a>, experts have said, which has boosted growth despite soaring <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">inflation</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-central-bank-raises-key-interest-rate-to-21-2024-10">high interest rates</a>, and a labor market <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">short of millions of workers</a>.Russia has also taken measures to boost business activity, Inozemstev said, such as by not hiking taxes for entrepreneurs and self-employed workers, while implementing subsidized loan programs for businesses. That means many businesses are sheltered from the pain of higher borrowing costs — and they could actually benefit from the surge in inflation in Russia, which could raise profits, he added.Bank deposits from Russian citizens and corporations, meanwhile, have swelled 54% since 2022, according to central bank data. Russia's war economy also looks to have gained the acceptance of the Russian people, who are benefiting from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-war-economy-boosts-wages-salaries-beat-inflation-labor-crunch-2024-2">higher wages</a> amid the nation's severe worker shortage. It's another key factor that makes Russia's economy likey more stable than many have thought, Inozemstev said."The economy, I would argue, is now undergoing another wave of adaptation to the changing conditions," Inozemstev wrote. "The people realize that the 'war economy' has substituted the anemic economic condition of the 2010s."Inozemstev said he expected Russia's economy to continue to grow in 2025 and beyond, forecasting 2%-2.5% GDP growth next year. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/RUS">International Monetary Fund</a> has said it is expecting Russia's economy to expand by 3.6% in 2024.

The odds of Russia's economy collapsing are 'extremely small' and the war can go on for the long term, economist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Saudi Arabia could flood the market with oil to regain control of prices.</li><li>This would create a difficult situation for Russia, which is reliant on higher crude prices. </li></ul>Russia's wartime economy could face a tougher time securing needed oil revenue if Saudi Arabia tanks global crude prices.The kingdom has reportedly signaled that crude <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-opec-oil-production-cuts-crude-prices-middle-east-2024-10">could drop as low as $50 a barrel</a> if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries does not commit to reducing oil output.In other words, Riyadh is hinting that it could flood the market with oil supply, analysts say. The move would slash prices and penalize OPEC members who have not cooperated in reducing oil flows — including Russia."With Russia already selling its oil at discounted rates and with higher production costs, a low-price environment in oil markets may impact its ability to finance its aggression in Ukraine," Luke Cooper, a research fellow at the London School of Economics, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/foreign-and-security-policy/will-oil-decide-the-fate-of-the-russia-ukraine-war-7836/">wrote for the IPS Journal</a>.Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, has been trying to keep oil above $100 per barrel by pushing for member states to cut production.But with <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">international crude</a> hovering below the $80 mark, this hasn't worked. To shift strategy sources told the Financial Times that <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-oil-prices-brent-crude-outlook-opec-production-cuts-2024-9">Riyadh now plans to turn on its taps</a> by December."Saudi Arabia is fed up," Simon Henderson, director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, told Business Insider. "Leadership of OPEC is a multifaceted responsibility. It can work well, but it's also like herding cats — pretty damn impossible, at least some of the time."<a target="_blank" href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/080824-opec-produces-437000-bd-above-quota-in-first-month-of-compensation-cuts">S&amp;P Global Ratings</a> data counts Russia among the overproducers in OPEC+. According to its last available data, Moscow produced 122,000 barrels above its daily quota in July. Iran and Kazakhstan also breached agreed-upon thresholds.<h3 id="60a31c17-d810-4adf-87a8-d604514ebe43">The Kremlin's dilemma</h3>Henderson suggested that some coalition members might be doing this to maximize profits.In Russia's case, Moscow is facing pressure to rake in as much as it can, as its war in Ukraine has ballooned defense and security spending in three years of war. These sectors will collectively account for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10">40% of all federal expenditures in Russia next year</a>.Russia's finances, meanwhile, are heavily dependent on oil revenue. A few years ago, gas and oil production made up <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-reducing-share-budget-revenue-gas-oil-minister-says-2024-10-10/">35%-40% of the nation's budget revenue</a>, the country's finance minister said this week.It's for this reason that the West has been so focused on curbing Russian oil profits. Consider the Group of Seven's $60 price cap on Moscow's crude: though the two-year initiative has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2024/0514">not panned out as hoped</a>, it was considered to be a key to keeping oil supply stable while denying the Kremlin much needed revenue.Russia has been able to circumvent these caps <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-sanctions-oil-trade-shadow-fleet-tankers-ukraine-war-economy-2024-8">using unregistered "shadow" tankers</a>, but Riyadh's $50 per barrel threat might be harder to overcome.Things could turn sour if Saudia Arabia's supply dump reignites an oil price war between Russia and the kingdom. Henderson <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/saudi-arabia-signals-oil-policy-shift">suggested this could happen</a>, referring to a similar event that occurred in 2020.That year, production cut disagreements prompted both nations to unleash supply, testing who could survive this low-price environment longer.In these situations, foreign exchange reserves become essential, which is problematic for Russia. Since invading Ukraine, the country's insurance against low oil prices has dissipated. Russia's National Wealth fund was nearly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-bleeding-money-liquid-reserves-national-wealth-fund-war-2024-1">halved at the start of this year,</a> and it is no longer able to source Western currencies to diversify its foreign exchange reserves.It remains to be seen whether President Vladimir Putin will want to engage in a price war with Riyadh, given his other, more immediate priorities, Henderson said.Predicting the Kremlin's moves is hard, he said, given many unknowns tied to Russia's oil sales.However, some kind of confrontation with Saudi Arabia may be stirring. This week, Russia's deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said it's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-says-too-early-say-if-market-ready-extra-oil-dec-2024-10-09/">unclear whether OPEC should increase oil output at its December meeting</a>, as signaled by Saudi Arabia.If things do take a turn for the worst, Cooper sees a potential price war as bad news for Russia. "Unlike Saudi Arabia, its oil is not cheap to extract, making it poorly equipped to deal with low-price conditions. This drives a short-term escalatory logic for Russia's war on Ukraine, requiring rapid battlefield successes prior to the emergence of low-price oil market conditions."

How Saudi Arabia could create a crisis for Russia's economy

India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

Mumbai: India is on track to becoming the <keyword id="20432305" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="third-largest-economy" source="keywords">third-largest economy</keyword> by 2030-31, driven by a projected annual growth rate of 6.7 per cent this fiscal, <keyword id="19990557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global">S&amp;P Global</keyword> said in a report on Thursday. The report also said that with 8.2 per cent growth rate in FY2024, continued reforms are crucial to improving business transactions and logistics, boosting <keyword id="20423043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-sector-investment" source="keywords">private sector investment</keyword>, and reducing reliance on public capital. It said equity markets are expected to stay dynamic and competitive due to strong growth prospects and better regulation, and foreign inflows into Indian government bonds have surged since the country joined major emerging market indexes, with further growth anticipated. To maximize trade benefits, India must develop infrastructure and geopolitical strategies, particularly regarding its extensive coastline, said the first edition of 'India Forward: Emerging Perspectives' report. Nearly 90 per cent of India's trade is seaborne, necessitating robust port infrastructure to manage increasing exports and bulk commodity imports, it added. Noting that India faces rising domestic energy demands and can look to sustainable technologies, including renewables and low-emission fuels, balancing energy security with its energy transition plans, the report stated that agriculture will rely on advanced technologies and new policies to improve infrastructure and productivity. The need is to address critical infrastructure issues such as irrigation, storage, and supply distribution to ensure food security and economic stability, it added. The <keyword id="23234467" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sp-global-india-research" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global India Research</keyword> Chapter's inaugural study was launched here on Thursday.

India on track to becoming third-largest economy by FY31: S&P Global report

Union Minister of Communications Jyotiraditya Scindia on Monday stated that <keyword id="19916120" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="5G" source="keywords">5G</keyword> technology is expected to inject around $450 billion into the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword> by 2040. The minister highlighted this during his address at the Global Standards Symposium at Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi, one of the world's largest telecom events. He said, "In India alone, for example, 5G is anticipated to inject an astounding 450 billion dollars into the economy by 2040." The minister emphasized that 5G is not just about faster internet or low latency, but is laying the groundwork for <keyword id="20006420" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="smart-cities" source="keywords">smart cities</keyword>, advanced infrastructure, and autonomous innovations. Scindia further noted that 5G has already been rolled out across all 36 states and Union Territories, covering 98 per cent of districts and 80 per cent of the population in just 22 months. He said this achievement showcases not only India's technological prowess but also the transformative power of standardized innovation. He added "We are unlocking new Reims of possibility in health care, education and agriculture and Manufacturer" The minister stressed the importance of international collaboration in unlocking the full potential of technologies like 5G, <keyword id="19904566" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="artificial-intelligence" source="keywords">artificial intelligence</keyword> (AI), and the Internet of Things (IoT). He stated that the global standards are key to ensuring that these technologies work harmoniously across borders. "The import of dialogue cannot be overstated. The wonders of 5G the brilliance of artificial intelligence and the interconnected marvels of the Internet of Things. Things are transforming industries, societies and manufacturing processes and economies on a global scale," he said. Scindia also pointed out the need for robust governance in emerging technologies like AI and IoT, emphasizing the importance of ethical considerations and regulatory frameworks to address concerns around privacy, bias, and transparency. He called for a comprehensive policy framework to ensure that future innovations, such as the upcoming 6G technology, benefit everyone equitably and do not deepen existing digital divides. "We are today poised at the edge of a new technological era, the dawn of the 6th generation of mobile network 6G and this is a gateway to the future where communication will become boundless where innovation will know no limits and by humanity, interconnectedness becomes the corner stone of our shared global destiny" he said. Scindia also urged the global community to work together in setting standards and nurturing partnerships that will define the future technological landscape, ensuring technology serves as a force for good. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/hyundai-ipo-review-everything-you-need-to-know-about-indias-biggest-ipo/articleshow/114203740.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/hyundai-ipo-review-everything-you-need-to-know-about-indias-biggest-ipo/articleshow/114203740.cms" target="_blank">Hyundai IPO review – Everything you need to know about India’s biggest IPO</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/the-ola-electric-saga-are-surge-in-complaints-and-declining-market-share-a-wake-up-call-for-bhavish-aggarwal/articleshow/114120828.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/the-ola-electric-saga-are-surge-in-complaints-and-declining-market-share-a-wake-up-call-for-bhavish-aggarwal/articleshow/114120828.cms" target="_blank">The Ola Electric Saga: Are surge in complaints and declining market share a wake-up call for Bhavish Aggarwal?</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/samsung-leads-the-first-phase-of-festive-sales-with-a-20-market-share/articleshow/114070723.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/samsung-leads-the-first-phase-of-festive-sales-with-a-20-market-share/articleshow/114070723.cms" target="_blank">Samsung leads the first phase of festive sales with a 20% market share</a>

5G to inject $450 billion into Indian economy by 2040: Telecom Minister Scindia

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Good morning! I've been known to make a bet or two in my day, which is why I'm wondering the odds you could get betting you'd have <a target="_blank" href="https://l.businessinsider.com/a/click?_t=c8e10479a20f45bba5aad6c5f6fbb009&amp;_m=6772a277a53343d1b8950d06c580109a&amp;_e=wedM0vcz3WB83-iK-OBZJTkfVvTI1cenK4Yfx-kMvpCPL58ojVWleTggSDrDNbC6MwxTb_NHGcJCaEdKGa66gW11aCmDeW54RamXMfEYgz4pgzPyjX3VK-xGq6HLo8JeF7nM8tdyn4FxN4cSYiGkQCMUaavUX7kshB-sMPphr6HvBF2DREPVxJDafa_79wfvN6VKhdYiUJnVdmEB1IKEEQHCf7LUE-5DFaymAiX_zWS1zHCSdRISy3qfL_nHIW4-CUAZJD3W_erXuiGqEcOJW8bEkt13rwIOROZ83FVl34PHj0WL69EHdDhEEX9OL3Vy6IqBL4ivYkaI3KuRoSrpxi0zMck_wwGXx8Ho_Rfmm1rf418GJiy2K1HKfbnj7tnxp-0WREsGhcM8vuSM8AkynSKTd7PGptUxbU0h7GaVSX4UFH191h1CXQasaDZi8Noacuiq2XhMSo8AoOGkIL90nA%3D%3D">four kids with the same birthday</a>.In today's big story, the economy is heading in the right direction, <a target="_blank" href="https://l.businessinsider.com/a/click?_t=c8e10479a20f45bba5aad6c5f6fbb009&amp;_m=6772a277a53343d1b8950d06c580109a&amp;_e=wedM0vcz3WB83-iK-OBZJTkfVvTI1cenK4Yfx-kMvpDdvvp5_TVwJ0J3vTteS83eVIpt0v1xbwCXSl3sN3tMrAZNUiQLvyMxCikHtOcIkqz9gRKolFXi2bsoDVThPUIrOWqwQlUFqGLcwxdzRN_2B5DGEy_WN93l0PLSw0F0R9zBJvD9LdCrxQiH7sQuSGBDBKINpLHrgTK2gEILUNpPVD5NEwaEGzElv8IWb0jrebQml1SjspMQJLTm1W7SJh6SrDPQ6L9GBKv9M_B1rBQb8HXfX8JVYq55eoOPDlloYzylnHbrJSEwu91n6NFHmn1ckz6IliaXwWuaAfBpOOdNmfJykY0_BTBwTUUY2GzvVKJXyEGrOBrYEUojIiOdfRCS5J9xBXzYU5IxNKLSIWt9w_rkKbuS9LhLP8ouy-fyufQFjfX0Kj5GDB4zWIRZfbJn40Y6ru83RJ28WKZLMd9ojg%3D%3D">but consumers aren't buying it</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: What's good for economic growth <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-nightmare-scenario-is-no-landing-in-the-economy-2024-9">could eventually be bad for stocks</a>.</li><li>Tech: Check out the leaked MrBeast handbook <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-mrbeast-guide-reveals-youtube-secret-weapons-for-success-2024-9">revealing his "secret weapons" for success</a>.</li><li>Business: The DOJ just hit Visa with an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/visa-antitrust-monopoly-lawsuit-doj-debit-card-2024-9">antitrust lawsuit over its debit cards</a>.</li></ul>But first, the vibes are all off.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Lacking confidence</h2><div type="image" title="A job seeker looking at an Employment page in the newspaper, giving it a .5-star review out of 5" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113670882" hostid="261" sizebytes="97270"></div>The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the stock market reached all-time highs, and the risk of a recession is gone.Things seem to be going really well for the economy, right?Wrong.Consumers aren't feeling bullish about the economy these days. In fact, they're quite pessimistic. US consumer confidence suffered its biggest drop in three years this month, according to data from the Conference Board.We've been here before. For much of 2022 and 2023, Americans were in a "vibecession" where their perception of the economy was much worse than the data indicated. Last time around, pesky inflation was keeping things like groceries and housing costs high, even as the rest of the economy showed improvement.This time, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-hiring-less-economy-outlook-inflation-consumer-sentiment-2024-9">the labor market's the culprit</a>, writes Business Insider's Juliana Kaplan. But it's not mass layoffs most people are worried about. Having a job isn't the issue — the unemployment rate is just 4.2% — as much as finding the next gig.It's no wonder that consumers aged 35 to 54 suffered the biggest drop in confidence, according to the Conference Board. This group, which is in its prime earning years, is facing a job market that's keeping them stuck in place.<div type="image" title="Wall street broker pointing upwards in front of an upward stock arrow" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113670879" hostid="261" sizebytes="159792"></div>The labor market isn't a lost cause, though.The Fed has acknowledged its top priority is keeping an eye on job growth and unemployment.We'll get a sense of which direction things are headed on October 4 when we get September's payroll data.Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, Mike Wilson, recently outlined <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/best-case-scenario-for-stock-market-outlook-fourth-quarter-ms-2024-9">the best- and worst-case scenarios for the numbers</a> in regard to the stock market. If unemployment dips below 4.1% and non-farm payroll can surpass 150,000, consider it game on for a big fourth quarter for stocks.But if unemployment climbs to 4.3% and non-farm payroll drops below 100,000, buckle up for a bumpy ride.The stock market isn't representative of the entire economy, as we've already covered. But continued success there could give companies more confidence to start hiring again.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Caroline Ellison was sentenced to 2 years in prison for her role in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/caroline-ellison-sentencing-jail-time-ftx-2024-9">the FTX and Alameda Research fraud scheme</a>.</li><li>Brett Favre reveals he's been diagnosed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brett-favre-diagnosed-parkinsons-disease-hearing-2024-9">with Parkinson's disease</a>.</li><li>Hezbollah launched its deepest strike on Israel yet — <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-intercepts-hezbollah-missile-strike-tel-aviv-lebanon-2024-9">targeting Tel Aviv</a>.</li><li>Alice Walton, the world's richest woman, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/alice-walton-wealth-walmart-family-richest-woman-bettencourt-meyers-billionaires-2024-8">just joined the $100 billion club</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="A line of public servants walking toward an open door on a Social Security card" height="1000" width="2000" msid="113670886" hostid="261" sizebytes="316196"></div><ol><li>Retirement, so confusing. Social security curveballs are making retirement age a nightmare to wade through for workers who have had both private sector and government careers. The murky provisions have left some workers <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/social-security-benefits-loopholes-mean-teachers-police-get-less-retirement-2024-9">with a bitter $0 in benefits</a>.</li><li>One of the biggest risks to stocks could be the economy growing. Wait, what? Economist Steven Blitz outlined a scenario where the Fed keeps rates too low for too long, creating a red-hot economy. The end result could be <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-nightmare-scenario-is-no-landing-in-the-economy-2024-9">another bout of inflation</a> and the Fed raising rates again.</li><li>China's stimmy package is a win for emerging markets. China's stimulus plan to boost its ailing economy sent emerging markets indexes to their <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-stimulus-boosts-emerging-markets-stocks-2024-9">highest level since April 2022</a>. But some analysts aren't sold on China's strategy saving its economy in the long run.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Andy Jassy" height="900" width="1200" msid="113670885" hostid="261" sizebytes="240466"></div><ol><li>Amazon cut a popular remote-work benefit. Months before its strict RTO policy kicks in, the company has already scrapped the option to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rto-remote-work-benefit-ends-2024-9">work up to four weeks a year fully remote</a>. The benefit allowed people to stay close to family while working during the holidays.</li><li>MrBeast's "secret weapons" for workplace success. A leaked handbook reveals the YouTuber's sacred pillars for success and the expectations he set for employees. "We aren't stuck in any old ways of thinking and you can literally turn anything into content," <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-mrbeast-guide-reveals-youtube-secret-weapons-for-success-2024-9">he wrote in the document</a>. Former employees said his principles weren't always followed.</li><li>TikTok waves the white flag on music streaming. TikTok is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktok-abandoning-plan-to-challenge-spotify-apple-in-music-streaming-2024-9">abandoning its plan to beat</a> Spotify at its own game: It's shutting down the TikTok Music app in November. However, the video-sharing platform will still be a major player in music discovery.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="State of Texas with an Austin map inside along with an arrow going down with a house on it" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113670883" hostid="261" sizebytes="113256"></div><ol><li>A boom and bust your city should copy and paste. Austin, Texas, enjoyed a real-estate boom during the pandemic, but that high has since subsided. While that's created short-term pain for those who bought near the peak, the quick boom-bust cycle will be good for the city in the long term because of one key effect: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/austin-home-prices-falling-texas-mortgage-rates-housing-crisis-success-2024-9">It allowed developers to build, build, build</a>.</li><li>Visa just got hit with an antitrust lawsuit. The US Justice Department filed a lawsuit accusing the payment processing giant of engaging in anticompetitive behavior and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/visa-antitrust-monopoly-lawsuit-doj-debit-card-2024-9">imposing unfair costs on customers and merchants</a>. Prosecutors say the company's actions affect "the price of nearly everything."</li><li>Generation Never-Called-in-Sick. Ron Sherman had what he considered a typical baby-boomer attitude towards work: Be loyal to your employer, always give 100%, and never call out sick unless you really have to. But he lost 360 hours of unused sick leave after a brutal layoff. Now, at retirement's doorstep, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomers-gen-z-sick-days-time-off-work-regret-2024-9">he thinks Gen Z might have the right idea</a> after all.</li></ol><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>SEC chair testifies to Senate banking committee.</li><li>G20 foreign ministers meet.</li><li>Mark Zuckerberg addresses Meta Connect developer conference on AI and AR.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jack Sommers, deputy editor, in London. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

Things are looking up for the economy. So why are consumers still unhappy? 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the US economy to 2.8% this year.</li><li>It expects slower growth of 2.2% next year as the government cuts back and the job market cools.</li></ul>The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the US, projecting the world's largest economy would expand by 2.8% this year instead of the 2.6% it predicted in July.in its latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024">World Economic Outlook </a>released on Tuesday, IMF staff cited stronger consumption fueled by "robust increases in real wages" and wealth effects, along with non-residential investment, as the two main reasons for the increase. However, they predicted GDP growth would slow to 2.2% in 2025 as the US government curbs its spending and the labor market cools, sapping consumption.The IMF projected global growth of 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, virtually unchanged from its previous prediction. They underscored their latest forecast for global growth over the next five years of 3.1% was "mediocre" compared with the pre-pandemic average."Persistent structural headwinds — such as population aging and weak productivity — are holding back potential growth in many economies," the agency's staff wrote.They projected only a slight slowdown in China to 4.8% this year due to resilient net exports, and revised their April forecast for 2025 upward by 0.4 percentage points to 4.5%. They noted the Chinese government's stimulus measures "may provide upside risk to near-term growth."The UN financial agency said that growth in the euro area appears to have troughed in 2023, and it anticipates an acceleration to 0.8% expansion in 2024 driven by stronger exports, then 1.2% in 2025 on the back of improved domestic demand.IMF staff made downward revisions to its growth outlook for the Middle East, Central Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa, citing disruptions to the production and shipping of oil and other commodities as well as "conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events."In contrast, they upgraded their April forecasts for emerging and developing Asia by 0.3 percentage points for both 2024 and 2025, to 5.4% and 5.0%. They cited "surging demand for semiconductors and electronics, driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence, has bolstered growth."

The IMF just raised its growth forecast for the US economy this year — but expects a slowdown in 2025

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Emerging markets' stocks climbed to their highest since April 2022 on Tuesday.</li></ul>China's latest efforts to prop up its sluggish economy appears to be having spillover effects on markets around the world. Emerging markets indexes climbed to their highest level since April 2022. The MSCI equity index for emerging economies rose 2% on Tuesday, fueled by gains from Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese companies like Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.The boost comes shortly after China introduced a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">swath of new stimulus measures</a> to prop up its sluggish economy and boost domestic demand.The policies include cutting a key short-term interest rate, lowering the reserve requirement ratio that dictates the amount of capital banks must hold, and introducing 800 billion Chinese yuan in liquidity support.The new stimulus measures also boosted China's CSI 300 of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed shares, with the index closing 4.3% higher on Tuesday in its best day in four years.And the Stoxx Europe 600 index climbed as much as 0.9%, led by luxury stocks amid hopes that sluggish Chinese consumer spending will rebound.The Chinese stimulus measures—plus a big rate cut from the US Federal Reserve last week and expectations for further easing—are raising investor confidence in the world's two largest economies.Yet, some analysts remain wary that China's stimulus measures won't have drastic enough impacts to actually rescue the country from its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-growth-consumer-spending-demand-real-estate-debt-crisis-2024-8">economic woes</a>."Today's announcement is not a game changer," Yingrui Wang, an economist at AXA Investment Managers, said in a Tuesday note. "A coordinated fiscal policy in the near term will be important and necessary for an efficient transmission."Goldman Sachs analysts echoed that sentiment, and said that the government's policy rate and lower reserve requirement, plus rare guidance on future policy, all point to signs that policymakers are increasingly worried about growth headwinds.But the analysts say further support for domestic demand is still necessary."More demand-side easing measures — especially fiscal easing — are likely to be needed to improve China's growth outlook," the analysts said in a Tuesday note.In recent months, China's economy has struggled to escape <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pets-sports-disney-linabell-china-consumer-economy-demand-spending-property-2024-9">weak consumer sentiment</a> and continues to face a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-housing-market-real-estate-crash-investors-outlook-construction-2024-3">struggling property sector</a>. Analysts have said the government's target of "around 5%" GDP growth by the end of the year is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-growth-targets-axa-investment-property-sector-industrial-production-2024-9">increasingly unlikely</a> as the government's macro policy has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-gdp-macro-policy-retail-demand-labor-market-forecast-2024-9">moved too slowly</a> to spark a rebound.

China's latest stimulus boosts emerging-market stocks to the highest level in 2 years 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's top leaders have unleashed a stimulus blitz to reverse the economic downturn and boost market confidence.</li><li>Skeptics say it's just not enough for the scale of China's problem.</li></ul>China unleashed a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">stimulus blitz</a> on September 24, jolting the markets to try to reverse the previously downbeat narrative on the world's second-largest economy.Right from the start, skeptics said it's just not enough to fix China's problems, which include an unprecedented <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-evergrande-property-real-estate-crisis-debts-collapse-what-happens-2024-2">property downturn,</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-markets-deflation-chart-investors-consumer-prices-outlook-beijing-2024-3">deflation,</a> and a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-weak-domestic-demand-factory-activity-amid-strong-export-2024-7">crisis of confidence,</a> among other issues.But it's likely not the last economy-boosting package, said some economists, because China is a top-down system — and the boss has called for it."As saving the economy and rescuing stock markets become politically correct, officials could jump on the bandwagon to display their loyalty," economists from Japanese bank Nomura wrote in a Wednesday note.Various Chinese ministries and local governments are likely to roll out a variety of stimulus measures in the coming weeks — useful or not, they added. After all, it's China, and there are consequences for not following the drumbeat."Moral suasion in China has somewhat more force than elsewhere. Chinese companies live and die based on whether they are singled out as policy favorites, CEOs sometimes literally," wrote Freya Beamish and Rory Green, economists from Global Data.TS Lombard, in a September 26 note.For a start, companies could get some cheap funding from Cina's central bank — announced as part of the initial package to support the stock market — as a "good way for currying favor," they wrote.Boosting stock market sentiment would also help with consumer confidence and inject money into companies, Ben Harburg, the managing partner of MSA Capital, a Saudi Arabia-backed venture capital firm based in Beijing, told Business Insider.The momentum appears to be underway.A day after the first stimulus was announced, Beijing announced a rare one-time cash handout for the poor. A day later, a meeting of top leaders addressed economic issues.The Chinese government's drive to fire up its economy may not be smooth — or enough — given the scale of its issues. On the flip side, officials may also do too much and cause new problems.<h2 id="e2729d41-4f91-4119-94e7-aa6acbb6d975">But what about the epic property crisis?</h2>China still has a massive property problem that's unlikely to be solved with one set of stimulus measures.A few days after the PBOC's first announcement, <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://politics.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0926/c1024-40328810.html">China's top leaders</a> called time on the real-estate crisis, pledging measures to stabilize the market and halt the decline.In some countries, this could just be lip service. In China, this is a top-down directive to technocrats to get to work on the pledged goals, including limiting new housing supply, increasing lending to projects on a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-property-real-estate-crisis-white-list-bank-loans-2023-11">"white list,"</a> and lowering mortgage rates."The most important change there is the new goal: stop the decline in housing," wrote Larry Hu, the head of China economics at Macquarie Group, in a Thursday note.He wrote the central government may have to become "the buyer of the last resort" under a program to absorb <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-empty-homes-real-estate-evergrande-housing-market-problem-2021-10">excess housing capacity</a> and turn vacant units into subsidized housing."For a top-down system like China, the change in the property KPI still matters a lot. With it, bureaucrats will exhaust all the policy tools to make it happen," wrote Hu.Some economists even view the property support measures as a turning point."We regard China's recent stimulus actions as the initial stages of a genuine policy pivot, particularly regarding the way authorities may be thinking about the economy," wrote Magdalena Polan, the head of emerging market macroeconomic research at asset manager PGIM Fixed Income, in a Friday note.She added that while the party line is still that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-real-estate-property-market-speculation-debt-crackdown-xi-jinping-2023-8">property is not for speculation, </a>the easing of purchase restrictions in some cities "demonstrates some willingness to expand pockets of residential real estate investment.""The intent is unlikely to revive real estate to the point where it drives a domestic wealth effect. Rather, it is likely aimed at clearing the market from excess inventory in an effort to stop property prices from declining further," Polan added.It's a tricky balance.For decades, China's growth has been driven by debt-fueled real estate investment. But now, Beijing has set its sights on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-new-growth-areas-electric-vehicles-batteries-solar-property-2024-1">hot new industries</a> of electric vehicles, solar cells, and lithium batteries for its economic future.It has to somehow engineer that transition."China certainly has to kind of go through this growing pain of evolving this economy to something different than it was dependent upon for last couple decades," said Harburg.<h2 id="db01a3ff-8d3d-4879-9a78-772de544351f">The danger: Messy and overzealous policy implementation</h2>Even though China's technocrats may move mountains to boost the country's economy, it could get messy, said Nomura's economists."Many of those measures might have a limited impact on stabilizing growth and solving real problems," they wrote."Some of those policies might, at best, boost growth for only a short period of time while failing to clean up the mess in the property markets and address many of the structural issues including the fiscal predicament."It doesn't help that Chinese officials have a history of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-crackdown-regret-central-economic-work-conference-readout-analysis-economy-2023-12">overzealous policy implementation.</a> Just look at the crackdowns on real estate, <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-big-tech-crackdown-investment-cost-trillion-alibaba-tencent-2023-7">tech,</a> and <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-education-stocks-tutoring-regulations-tech-shares-jpmorgan-2021-7">tutoring</a> over the last few years.China's stock markets, which are dominated by retail investors fixated on social media, are blistering hot. On September 30, the mainland's benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/csi-300">CSI 300</a> capped its best day since 2008 before a weeklong break. Now, there are fears that it could be running ahead of itself.Since the PBOC's initial announcement, Hong Kong's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/hang_seng">Hang Seng Index</a> has gained 30% while the mainland's benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/csi-300">CSI 300</a> climbed 25%. China's stock markets are closed for weeklong National Day public holidays and are set to reopen on Tuesday."Stimulus measures could add more fuel to the fire when stock markets are already heated. In fear of a repeat of 2015, Beijing may eventually become sufficiently concerned to reduce both monetary and fiscal stimulus measures and may even be forced to take actions to cool down the overheating," warned economists at Nomura, referring to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shanghais-crashing-stock-market-has-lost-2-trillion-more-than-the-value-of-all-german-stocks-in-17-days-2015-7">stock market collapse in 2015.</a>

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