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Doctors in India are grappling to diagnose and treat unexplained and persistent symptoms of <keyword id="9814327" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="long-covid" source="Orion">long Covid</keyword> patients due to limited guidelines, whereas researchers have flagged inadequate studies on the condition. With the <keyword id="19896311" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-health-organization" source="keywords">World Health Organization</keyword> declaring an end to <keyword id="19896627" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="covid" source="keywords">Covid</keyword> as a global <keyword id="416511" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="health-emergency" source="Orion">health emergency</keyword> in May last year, focused efforts are underway around the world to estimate the burden of long Covid among the population. The condition refers to the set of lingering symptoms affecting varied body parts and persisting well beyond the acute Covid infection period, including cough, muscle and joint pain, fatigue, brain fog and difficulty in focusing. The viral disease is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. While studies have suggested that about a third of those moderately or severely infected are likely to suffer from long Covid, region-wise though, incidence could vary. A study by researchers, including those from <keyword id="19988007" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="harvard-medical-school" source="keywords">Harvard Medical School</keyword>, US, estimated that 31 % of the once-infected people in North America, 44% in Europe, and 51% in Asia, have long Covid, which is "challenging the healthcare system, but there are limited guidelines for its treatment". It was published in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases in September. In India, however, studies on long Covid are few and far between. One such study by Maulana Azad Medical College in New Delhi, conducted from May 2022 to March 2023 on 553 patients who had recovered from Covid, found that about 45% had lingering symptoms, persistent fatigue and dry cough being the most common. "There is limited exploratory research on the long Covid syndrome with scarce data on long-term outcomes," the authors wrote in the study published in the journal Cureus in May this year. Understanding the long-term effects of the virus is important for developing management strategies, optimising healthcare delivery, and providing support to recovered Covid patients in the community, they said. Dr Rajesh Sagar, Professor of Psychiatry, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, said, "Looking at the current state of long Covid studies in India, it is too premature to say that we understand the condition well enough to know how to diagnose or treat it." Animesh Samanta, assistant professor at School of Natural Sciences in <keyword id="19897094" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shiv-nadar-university" source="keywords">Shiv Nadar University</keyword>, Greater Noida, said, "While studies in India highlight the growing recognition of neurological complications in long Covid patients, more focused research on neuroinflammation is needed." Doctors, too, have reported a rise in patients complaining of symptoms that they did not have pre-Covid. "People who never had <keyword id="6465125" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="asthma" source="Orion">asthma</keyword> in the past, post-Covid, with every viral infection, they get a long cough, shortness of breath and wheezing, which require the use of <keyword id="31257" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inhalers" source="Orion">inhalers</keyword> or nebuliser," senior consultant Dr Neetu Jain, who runs a post-Covid care clinic at Pushpawati Singhania Hospital and Research Institute, New Delhi, said. Dr Arun Garg, chairman, Neurology and Neurosciences, Medanta-The Medicity, Gurugram, said he was noticing a spike in stroke cases among young patients not suffering from known risk factors such as diabetes, hypertension and obesity. "Similarly, we are seeing more cases of encephalopathy (swelling of the brain) without reason and having a confused state of mind following one or two days of fever. Their MRI scans show no changes. These patients have increased significantly after Covid," he said. In the absence of medical guidelines to diagnose long Covid, doctors are having to resort to broad, non-specific tests and questionnaires to gauge a patient's 'quality of life'. Studies have shown that the fatigue experienced in long Covid is similar to that in cancer patients, with a quality of life similar to patients of Parkinson's disease. "We really do not have any test to diagnose long Covid, even though it is definitely a clinical diagnosis. We diagnose long Covid for people who had at least moderate to severe infection, following which they could never regain the quality of life pre-Covid. Checking for inflammatory markers like C-reactive proteins (CRP) can support the diagnosis," Dr Jain said. "Other than routine blood tests that measure inflammation, we do antibody tests to look for direct markers. In many of these patients, we are finding rare antibodies which are very new to us and were not there pre-Covid," Dr Garg said. Inflammation persisting despite recovery from acute Covid infection is thought to lie at the heart of long Covid. However, tests to measure this specific immune response are lacking, even as researchers have been working in this direction worldwide. One such effort comes from Shiv Nadar University, where a team led by Samanta has developed a fluorescent probe capable of detecting inflammation in brain cells that can arise due to Covid infection. The probe measures nitric oxide levels in brain cells, especially in human microglia cells, where increased NO levels are linked to the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Microglia are immune cells in the brain that fight disease and help maintain brain health. Lysosomes within microglia, which help clear foreign disease-causing agents like the SARS-CoV-2 virus, produce nitric oxide as part of an immune response to infection. The probe detects nitric oxide produced in lysosomes in response to infection and thereby allows for a measurement of inflammation levels. This examination method can provide "qualitative information on infection status", said Samanta, corresponding author on the study published in the journal Analytical Chemistry in American Chemical Society. He explained that patients with pre-existing conditions such as Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease or multiple sclerosis (an autoimmune disorder) could exhibit prolonged neuroinflammation and loss of brain cells following Covid infection. While the probe has shown efficacy in cell cultures, animal studies would need to be done, before testing it in humans, Samanta said. Looking at the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, the study by Harvard Medical School had found that 587 clinical studies were conducted on long Covid, of which about 53% (312) were testing potential treatments. Most of these were found to be conducted in the US (58), followed by India (55) and Spain (20). The trials looked at interventions including physical exercise, psychotherapy, and pharmacological ones such as paxlovid and fluvoxamine. However, "to date, only 11 of these 312 studies have published their results that were not confirmative," the researchers wrote. The team called for studies to look into sleep disorders which were rarely included in the registered clinical studies. Further, interventions targeting the biological processes responsible for long Covid are needed but currently lacking, they said.

Doctors struggle to treat long Covid patients in India; researchers point to inadequate studies

Sydney, Aug 15 (The Conversation): The <keyword id="19896311" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Health-Organization" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Health Organization" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="World Health Organization">World Health Organization</keyword> (<keyword id="19895006" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WHO" source="keywords">WHO</keyword>) has declared <keyword id="20965747" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="mpox" source="keywords">mpox</keyword> a public health emergency of international concern, after rising cases in the <keyword id="22796094" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Democratic-Republic-of-the-Congo" source="keywords">Democratic Republic of the Congo</keyword> and the potential for further spread. This now triggers a coordinated international response to an extraordinary event and the mobilisation of resources, such as vaccines and diagnostic testing, to curb the spread of this infectious disease. But WHO has not declared mpox a <keyword id="19913581" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pandemic" source="keywords">pandemic</keyword>. Rather, the measures it has triggered are designed to prevent it from becoming one. <h2>What triggered this latest alert?</h2> Mpox, once known as monkeypox, is a viral infection closely related to <keyword id="22362924" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="smallpox" source="keywords">smallpox</keyword>. Initial symptoms include a fever, headache, swelling of the lymph nodes and muscle ache. A typical rash follows, mainly on the face, hands and feet. The spread of mpox through certain African countries led the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention to declare earlier this week mpox a public health emergency of continental security. This is the first time the organisation has issued such an alert since it was established in 2017. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in central Africa has been particularly worrying for more than a year. There are two types or clades of mpox. Clade II, which originates in west Africa, is less severe. It has a fatality rate of up to 1 per cent (in other words, roughly one in 100 are expected to die from it). But clade I, from central Africa, has a fatality rate of up to 10 per cent (up to one in ten die). This compares to a 0.7 per cent fatality rate for the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is seeing large epidemics of the more deadly clade I mpox. Mpox is endemic in some parts of central and west Africa, where the virus exists in animals and can spread to humans. Outbreaks have been increasing, with more human-to-human spread, since 2017. This is partly due to very low levels of immunity to the mpox virus, which is related to the virus that causes smallpox. Mass vaccination against smallpox ceased more than 40 years ago globally, resulting in minimal immunity in populations today against mpox. The WHO designation announced this week relates to the clade I. Not only does this have a higher fatality rate, it has new mutations that enhance spread between people. These changes, and the global lack of immunity to mpox, makes the world's population vulnerable to the virus. <h2>There are two different epidemics</h2> In 2022, an epidemic of mpox swept through non-endemic countries, including beyond Africa. This was a variant of clade II originating from Nigeria, called clade IIb. This was sexually transmitted, predominantly affecting men who have sex with men, and had a low fatality rate. That epidemic peaked in 2022, with vaccines made available to people at risk in high-income countries, but there has been an uptick in 2024. At the same time, large clade I epidemics were occurring in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but with far less attention. Vaccines were not available there, even in 2023, when there were 14,626 cases and 654 deaths. Mortality was 4.5 per cent, and higher in children. In fact, most cases and deaths in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have been children. This means most transmission there is non-sexual and is likely to have occurred through close contact or respiratory aerosols. However, in 2023 an <keyword id="20877025" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="outbreak" source="keywords">outbreak</keyword> in a non-endemic part of the country, South Kivu in the east, appeared to be by sexual transmission, indicating more than one epidemic and different transmission modes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. By mid-2024, there were already more cases in the country than all of 2023 - more than 15,600 cases and 537 deaths. Testing capacity is low in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, most cases are not confirmed by lab testing, and the data we have are from a small sample of genomic sequences from the Kamituga region of South Kivu. This show mutations to the clade I virus around September 2023, to a variant termed clade Ib, which is more readily transmissible between people. We do not have much data to compare these viruses with the viruses causing cases in the rest of the country. <h2>Mpox is spreading internationally</h2> In the past month, the virus has spread to countries that share a border with the Democratic Republic of the Congo - Rwanda and Burundi. It has also spread to other east African countries, such as Kenya and Uganda. None of these countries have had mpox cases previously. In an interconnected, mobile world, cases may spread to other continents, as mpox did in 2018 from Nigeria to the United Kingdom and other countries. A few travel-related cases between 2018 and 2019 may have led to the large multi-country 2022 clade IIb epidemic. <h2>We have vaccines, but not where they are needed</h2> As the mpox virus and smallpox viruses are related (they are both orthopoxviruses), smallpox vaccines offer protection against mpox. These vaccines were used to control the 2022 clade IIb epidemic. However, most of the world has never been vaccinated, and has no immunity to mpox. The newer <keyword id="19959412" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vaccine" source="keywords">vaccine</keyword> (called Jynneos in some countries and Imvamune or Imvanex in others) is effective. However, supplies are limited, and vaccine is scarce in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. WHO's declaration of mpox as a public health emergency of international concern will help mobilise vaccines to where they are needed. The Africa Centres for Disease Control had already begun negotiations to secure 2,00,000 doses of vaccine, which is a fraction of what is required to control the epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. <h2>What happens now?</h2> Ultimately, a serious epidemic anywhere in the world is a concern for all of us, as it can spread globally through travel, as we saw with the COVID pandemic. Controlling it at the source is the best measure, and WHO's latest declaration will help mobilise the required resources. Surveillance for spread of this more serious version of mpox is also essential, bearing in mind that many countries do not have the capacity for widespread testing. So we'll have to rely on "suspected cases", based on a clinical definition, to keep track of the epidemic. Open-source epidemic intelligence - such as using AI to monitor trends in rash and fever illness - can also be used as an early warning system in countries with weak health systems or delayed reporting of cases. A further complication is that 20-30 per cent of people with mpox may simultaneously have chickenpox, an unrelated infection that also causes a rash. So an initial diagnosis of chickenpox (which is easier to test for) does not rule out mpox. Effective communication and tackling push-back against public health measures and disinformation is also key. We saw how important this was during the COVID pandemic. Now, WHO will coordinate the global mpox response, focusing on equity in disease prevention and access to diagnostics and vaccines. It is up to individual countries to do their best to comply with the International Health Regulations, and the protocols for how such a global emergency are managed.

WHO has declared mpox a global health emergency. What happens next?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's top leaders have unleashed a stimulus blitz to reverse the economic downturn and boost market confidence.</li><li>Skeptics say it's just not enough for the scale of China's problem.</li></ul>China unleashed a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">stimulus blitz</a> on September 24, jolting the markets to try to reverse the previously downbeat narrative on the world's second-largest economy.Right from the start, skeptics said it's just not enough to fix China's problems, which include an unprecedented <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-evergrande-property-real-estate-crisis-debts-collapse-what-happens-2024-2">property downturn,</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-markets-deflation-chart-investors-consumer-prices-outlook-beijing-2024-3">deflation,</a> and a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-weak-domestic-demand-factory-activity-amid-strong-export-2024-7">crisis of confidence,</a> among other issues.But it's likely not the last economy-boosting package, said some economists, because China is a top-down system — and the boss has called for it."As saving the economy and rescuing stock markets become politically correct, officials could jump on the bandwagon to display their loyalty," economists from Japanese bank Nomura wrote in a Wednesday note.Various Chinese ministries and local governments are likely to roll out a variety of stimulus measures in the coming weeks — useful or not, they added. After all, it's China, and there are consequences for not following the drumbeat."Moral suasion in China has somewhat more force than elsewhere. Chinese companies live and die based on whether they are singled out as policy favorites, CEOs sometimes literally," wrote Freya Beamish and Rory Green, economists from Global Data.TS Lombard, in a September 26 note.For a start, companies could get some cheap funding from Cina's central bank — announced as part of the initial package to support the stock market — as a "good way for currying favor," they wrote.Boosting stock market sentiment would also help with consumer confidence and inject money into companies, Ben Harburg, the managing partner of MSA Capital, a Saudi Arabia-backed venture capital firm based in Beijing, told Business Insider.The momentum appears to be underway.A day after the first stimulus was announced, Beijing announced a rare one-time cash handout for the poor. A day later, a meeting of top leaders addressed economic issues.The Chinese government's drive to fire up its economy may not be smooth — or enough — given the scale of its issues. On the flip side, officials may also do too much and cause new problems.<h2 id="e2729d41-4f91-4119-94e7-aa6acbb6d975">But what about the epic property crisis?</h2>China still has a massive property problem that's unlikely to be solved with one set of stimulus measures.A few days after the PBOC's first announcement, <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://politics.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0926/c1024-40328810.html">China's top leaders</a> called time on the real-estate crisis, pledging measures to stabilize the market and halt the decline.In some countries, this could just be lip service. In China, this is a top-down directive to technocrats to get to work on the pledged goals, including limiting new housing supply, increasing lending to projects on a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-property-real-estate-crisis-white-list-bank-loans-2023-11">"white list,"</a> and lowering mortgage rates."The most important change there is the new goal: stop the decline in housing," wrote Larry Hu, the head of China economics at Macquarie Group, in a Thursday note.He wrote the central government may have to become "the buyer of the last resort" under a program to absorb <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-empty-homes-real-estate-evergrande-housing-market-problem-2021-10">excess housing capacity</a> and turn vacant units into subsidized housing."For a top-down system like China, the change in the property KPI still matters a lot. With it, bureaucrats will exhaust all the policy tools to make it happen," wrote Hu.Some economists even view the property support measures as a turning point."We regard China's recent stimulus actions as the initial stages of a genuine policy pivot, particularly regarding the way authorities may be thinking about the economy," wrote Magdalena Polan, the head of emerging market macroeconomic research at asset manager PGIM Fixed Income, in a Friday note.She added that while the party line is still that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-real-estate-property-market-speculation-debt-crackdown-xi-jinping-2023-8">property is not for speculation, </a>the easing of purchase restrictions in some cities "demonstrates some willingness to expand pockets of residential real estate investment.""The intent is unlikely to revive real estate to the point where it drives a domestic wealth effect. Rather, it is likely aimed at clearing the market from excess inventory in an effort to stop property prices from declining further," Polan added.It's a tricky balance.For decades, China's growth has been driven by debt-fueled real estate investment. But now, Beijing has set its sights on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-new-growth-areas-electric-vehicles-batteries-solar-property-2024-1">hot new industries</a> of electric vehicles, solar cells, and lithium batteries for its economic future.It has to somehow engineer that transition."China certainly has to kind of go through this growing pain of evolving this economy to something different than it was dependent upon for last couple decades," said Harburg.<h2 id="db01a3ff-8d3d-4879-9a78-772de544351f">The danger: Messy and overzealous policy implementation</h2>Even though China's technocrats may move mountains to boost the country's economy, it could get messy, said Nomura's economists."Many of those measures might have a limited impact on stabilizing growth and solving real problems," they wrote."Some of those policies might, at best, boost growth for only a short period of time while failing to clean up the mess in the property markets and address many of the structural issues including the fiscal predicament."It doesn't help that Chinese officials have a history of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-crackdown-regret-central-economic-work-conference-readout-analysis-economy-2023-12">overzealous policy implementation.</a> Just look at the crackdowns on real estate, <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-big-tech-crackdown-investment-cost-trillion-alibaba-tencent-2023-7">tech,</a> and <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-education-stocks-tutoring-regulations-tech-shares-jpmorgan-2021-7">tutoring</a> over the last few years.China's stock markets, which are dominated by retail investors fixated on social media, are blistering hot. On September 30, the mainland's benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/csi-300">CSI 300</a> capped its best day since 2008 before a weeklong break. Now, there are fears that it could be running ahead of itself.Since the PBOC's initial announcement, Hong Kong's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/hang_seng">Hang Seng Index</a> has gained 30% while the mainland's benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/csi-300">CSI 300</a> climbed 25%. China's stock markets are closed for weeklong National Day public holidays and are set to reopen on Tuesday."Stimulus measures could add more fuel to the fire when stock markets are already heated. In fear of a repeat of 2015, Beijing may eventually become sufficiently concerned to reduce both monetary and fiscal stimulus measures and may even be forced to take actions to cool down the overheating," warned economists at Nomura, referring to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shanghais-crashing-stock-market-has-lost-2-trillion-more-than-the-value-of-all-german-stocks-in-17-days-2015-7">stock market collapse in 2015.</a>

China released a blitz of stimulus measures to boost its economy. Now begins the balancing game.

Raising concerns over growing <keyword id="20260846" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="obesity" source="keywords">obesity</keyword> and increase of consumption of highly <keyword id="20490015" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="processed-foods" source="keywords">processed foods</keyword> laden with sugars and fat, the Economic Survey said 54 per cent of the total disease burden in India is due to <keyword id="21833035" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="unhealthy-diets" source="keywords">unhealthy diets</keyword>. Obesity presents a "concerning situation" and <keyword id="19948547" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="preventive-measures" source="keywords">preventive measures</keyword> must be taken to enable citizens to have a <keyword id="20000886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="healthier-lifestyle" source="keywords">healthier lifestyle</keyword>, it said. "Obesity is emerging as a serious concern among India's adult population," said the Survey, which was tabled on Monday by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament. If India needs to "reap the gains of its demographic dividend, it is critical that its population's health parameters transition towards a balanced and diverse diet", it said. Citing a report from the Indian Council for Medical Research, the Economic Survey observed that the rise in consumption of highly processed foods laden with sugars and fat, coupled with reduced physical activity and limited access to diverse foods, exacerbate micronutrient deficiencies and overweight/obesity problems. Estimates show that the adult obesity rate in India has more than tripled, and the rise in children is the steepest in the world for India, behind Vietnam and Namibia, the survey stated, referring to a World Obesity Federation report. The survey further said as per National Family Health Survey (NFHS), the incidence of obesity is significantly higher in urban India than in rural India. In urban India, it is 29.8 per cent in men versus 19.3 per cent of rural India. The percentage of men facing obesity in the 18-69 age bracket has increased to 22.9 per cent in NFHS-5 from 18.9 per cent in NFHS-4. For women, it has increased from 20.6 per cent (NFHS-4) to 24 per cent (NFHS-5). "Combined with an ageing population in some states, obesity presents a concerning situation. Preventive measures must be taken to enable citizens to have a healthier lifestyle," the survey said. In some states, such as in the NCT (Delhi), the proportion of women with obesity is 41.3 per cent, as against 38 per cent for men. In Tamil Nadu, for men, obesity is 37 per cent and it is 40.4 per cent for women. In Andhra, it is 36.3 per cent for women while for men it is 31.1 per cent. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/google-pixel-9-pro-fold-to-launch-in-india-on-august-14-alongside-the-pixel-9-series/articleshow/111855704.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/google-pixel-9-pro-fold-to-launch-in-india-on-august-14-alongside-the-pixel-9-series/articleshow/111855704.cms" target="_blank">Google Pixel 9 Pro Fold to launch in India on August 14 alongside the Pixel 9 series</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/oneplus-nord-4-vs-realme-gt-6t-which-mid-range-phone-should-you-buy-under-35000/slidelist/111803604.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/oneplus-nord-4-vs-realme-gt-6t-which-mid-range-phone-should-you-buy-under-35000/slidelist/111803604.cms" target="_blank">OnePlus Nord 4 vs Realme GT 6T – which mid-range phone should you buy under ₹35,000?</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/reliance-jio-and-airtel-added-3-45-million-subscribers-in-may-2024-while-vi-lost-nearly-a-million/articleshow/111800758.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/reliance-jio-and-airtel-added-3-45-million-subscribers-in-may-2024-while-vi-lost-nearly-a-million/articleshow/111800758.cms" target="_blank">Reliance Jio and Airtel added 3.45 million subscribers in May 2024, while Vi lost nearly a million</a>

Rising obesity a concern, preventive measures must be taken for healthier lifestyle: Eco Survey

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Emerging markets stocks are set for their worst monthly decline since January. </li><li>The slump comes as investors price in higher odds of a Trump win in the upcoming US election.</li></ul>It's been a tough month for emerging market stocks as the odds of a Donald Trump election win rise — and with it, the odds that his proposed tariff plan will actually see the light of day. Emerging market stocks are headed for their worst monthly decline since January, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling for a fourth day on Thursday for a 3.1% decline this month.A select few EM stocks have taken the biggest hits, with Samsung, Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan accounting for more than half of the index's fall. The decline comes as the market prices in higher odds of a win for former President Donald Trump with just two weeks until the election.On crypto betting market Polymarket, Trump's odds of winning soared as high as to 66% on Tuesday, their highest since President Joe Biden was still in the race in July. Odds are now slightly lower at 62%.Polls, meanwhile, are much closer, with the most recent national polling average compiled by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris">RealClearPolitics</a> showing Harris at 48.7% versus 48.5% for Trump.Trump has proposed raising tariffs on imports from all countries to as high as 20% and has said imports from China would be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-impose-tariffs-china-if-elected-2024-2">subject to a 60% tariff</a>.Investors' fears of a damaging trade war aren't unfounded. In 2018, Trump's trade war with China led to a significant underperformance compared to US stocks, and strategists say the election's outcome is again pushing investors away from EM shares as uncertainty builds. "US elections have become a key driver of uncertainty as risk positioning is clearly fluctuating to a more cautious stance. In our recent client interactions, we have sensed global EM investors' appetite to increase risk budgets over the next weeks may have been significantly reduced," analysts from Citi wrote in a note last week.The strategists note that the latest sentiment is a sharp contrast from a month ago, when investors were pricing in higher odds of a Harris win."There has been a significant change in investor sentiment, and investors' risk budgets have likely been changing as a function of that."Other factors, like rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a bond market sell-off, are also driving investors away from riskier assets. Investors are also expressing disappointment in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">China's stimulus measures</a>, which <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-stimulus-boosts-emerging-markets-stocks-2024-9">initially fueled a rally</a> in EM stocks last month.

Prospects of a Trump win and huge tariffs spark worst sell-off for emerging market stocks in 10 months

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Emerging markets' stocks climbed to their highest since April 2022 on Tuesday.</li></ul>China's latest efforts to prop up its sluggish economy appears to be having spillover effects on markets around the world. Emerging markets indexes climbed to their highest level since April 2022. The MSCI equity index for emerging economies rose 2% on Tuesday, fueled by gains from Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese companies like Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.The boost comes shortly after China introduced a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">swath of new stimulus measures</a> to prop up its sluggish economy and boost domestic demand.The policies include cutting a key short-term interest rate, lowering the reserve requirement ratio that dictates the amount of capital banks must hold, and introducing 800 billion Chinese yuan in liquidity support.The new stimulus measures also boosted China's CSI 300 of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed shares, with the index closing 4.3% higher on Tuesday in its best day in four years.And the Stoxx Europe 600 index climbed as much as 0.9%, led by luxury stocks amid hopes that sluggish Chinese consumer spending will rebound.The Chinese stimulus measures—plus a big rate cut from the US Federal Reserve last week and expectations for further easing—are raising investor confidence in the world's two largest economies.Yet, some analysts remain wary that China's stimulus measures won't have drastic enough impacts to actually rescue the country from its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-growth-consumer-spending-demand-real-estate-debt-crisis-2024-8">economic woes</a>."Today's announcement is not a game changer," Yingrui Wang, an economist at AXA Investment Managers, said in a Tuesday note. "A coordinated fiscal policy in the near term will be important and necessary for an efficient transmission."Goldman Sachs analysts echoed that sentiment, and said that the government's policy rate and lower reserve requirement, plus rare guidance on future policy, all point to signs that policymakers are increasingly worried about growth headwinds.But the analysts say further support for domestic demand is still necessary."More demand-side easing measures — especially fiscal easing — are likely to be needed to improve China's growth outlook," the analysts said in a Tuesday note.In recent months, China's economy has struggled to escape <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pets-sports-disney-linabell-china-consumer-economy-demand-spending-property-2024-9">weak consumer sentiment</a> and continues to face a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-housing-market-real-estate-crash-investors-outlook-construction-2024-3">struggling property sector</a>. Analysts have said the government's target of "around 5%" GDP growth by the end of the year is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-growth-targets-axa-investment-property-sector-industrial-production-2024-9">increasingly unlikely</a> as the government's macro policy has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-gdp-macro-policy-retail-demand-labor-market-forecast-2024-9">moved too slowly</a> to spark a rebound.

China's latest stimulus boosts emerging-market stocks to the highest level in 2 years 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China just announced aggressive monetary stimulus measures to boost its struggling economy.</li><li>They include interest rate cuts, liquidity support, and reduced bank reserve requirements.</li></ul>China's finally getting serious about stimulating its dismal economy.On Tuesday, three of its top financial regulators appeared side by side in a rare press conference on the economy where <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.gov.cn/lianbo/bumen/202409/content_6976071.htm">People's Bank of China</a> governor Pan Gongsheng announced a broad range of monetary stimulus measures.They include cutting a short-term key interest rate and reducing reserve requirement ratio, or RRR, to the lowest level since at least 2018. The RRR refers to the amount of money banks need to hold in reserve.Pan also announced 800 billion Chinese yuan, or $114 billion, in liquidity support. He said authorities are looking into a stock stabilization fund.Analysts say the measures are aggressive and even historic."Today's policy measures are bold by historical standards," Betty Wang, the lead economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note on Tuesday."This is the first time since the pandemic that the central bank offered a combination of rate cuts, RRR cuts, and structural monetary policies at the same time," she added.Wang said China's central bank pulled the aggressive moves in part due to weaker-than-expected <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-august-factory-output-retail-sales-miss-expectations-2024-09-14/">economic data</a>, which increases the risk that the country wouldn't be able to hit its GDP growth target of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-two-sessions-growth-goal-challenging-economists-2024-3">around 5% this year.</a>The show of commitment sent a shot of confidence to investors, sending shares soaring.China's benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/csi-300">CSI 300</a> closed 4.3% higher, clocking its best day in four years and nearly wiping out <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-hong-kong-stock-market-slump-confused-beijing-economy-signals-2024-1">steep losses this year</a> — although it's still about 40% lower than a 2021 peak.Hong Kong's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/hang_seng">Hang Seng Index</a> closed 4.1% higher.<h2 id="d141fefa-3971-40d0-b695-6a3e5f8d7bff">Stimulus measures don't address consumption</h2>Despite the fanfare, analysts are divided over whether the moves that ease monetary policy constitute a massive "bazooka" stimulus.Most say the monetary easing policies don't address the lack of confidence contributing to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-weak-domestic-demand-factory-activity-amid-strong-export-2024-7">depressed consumer spending.</a>"While these measures will boost confidence to some extent, we do not believe these monetary and financial policies alone are enough to arrest the worsening economic slowdown," Nomura economists wrote in a note on Tuesday, pointing out that the RRR cut is of "limited meaning.""The real bottleneck faced by the economy is a lack of effective demand rather than loanable funds available," they wrote.The Nomura economists said Beijing should focus on fiscal stimulus and reforms, such as direct funding to stabilize the property market, "as the housing crisis is the root cause of these shocks"Beijing could also increase pension payments to underprivileged groups and provide more funding to local governments, they added.China has pulled out multiple <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-property-data-ugly-despite-support-stimulus-measures-crisis-2024-2">support measures</a> this year to shore up its economy and stock markets, but any kneejerk optimism has been shortlived.It remains to be seen if Tuesday's gains will hold in the long run. China's economy is facing multiple challenges including an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-property-crisis-bleeding-into-banking-sector-bad-loans-liquidity-2024-3">epic property crisis</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-crash-youth-unemployment-rate-labor-market-atlantic-council-2024-2">high youth unemployment rates</a>, and geopolitical tensions.Still, the commitment shown by Beijing on Tuesday is lifting market sentiment and fuelling hopes that the world's second-largest economy may finally emerge from its struggles."Overall, we feel today's measures are a step in the right direction, especially as multiple measures have been announced together rather than spacing out individual piecemeal measures to a more limited effect," Lynn Song, the Greater China chief economist at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/snaps/pboc-unveiled-a-monetary-policy-easing-package-in-bid-to-support-growth/">ING bank,</a> wrote on Tuesday.Since most global central banks are on an easing cycle, China could also head down that path in the months ahead, he added."If we see a large fiscal policy push as well, momentum could recover heading into the fourth quarter," Song added.

China just released aggressive measures to boost its economy — but some analysts say it's still not enough 

Prime Minister Narendra <keyword id="19899684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Modi" source="keywords">Modi</keyword> on Friday said the government is making necessary <keyword id="20861068" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="policy-changes" source="keywords">policy changes</keyword>, like removal of <keyword id="20279287" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Angel-Tax" source="keywords">Angel Tax</keyword>, to promote the <keyword id="19945816" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="fintech" source="keywords">fintech</keyword> sector, even as he asked the <keyword id="19962476" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="regulators" source="keywords">regulators</keyword> to take additional measures to check cyber frauds which can have a crippling impact on startups. Lauding the fintechs for democratising <keyword id="19976433" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-services" source="keywords">financial services</keyword>, Modi said the sector, which has attracted USD 31-billion investment in the last 10 years, has played a key role in denting the parallel economy. The Prime Minister was addressing the Global Fintech Fest (GFF) 2024, jointly organised by the Payments Council of India, the National Payments Corporation of India and the Fintech Convergence Council. He said the domestic economy and the capital market are in a celebratory mood at a time when the nation is also going through a festive period. Modi underlined that the government is making all necessary changes on the policy level to assist the fintech sector and gave examples of doing away with Angel Tax, allocating Rs 1 lakh crore to encourage research and innovation in the country and implementing the Digital Personal Data Protection Act. Broadly, fintech refers to entities utilising technologies for providing financial services. Expressing the need to put an end to <keyword id="19901142" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cyber-fraud" source="keywords">cyber fraud</keyword>, he urged the regulators to take major initiatives to boost digital literacy. It is equally important to ensure cyber fraud does not come in the way of the growth of fintech and startups in the country, Modi said. In his speech, the Prime Minister also cautioned about the dangers of a parallel economy for the world. Fintech, he said, has played an impactful role in denting such a system and credited the emergence of transparency. He said that digital technology has introduced transparency in India and gave the example of the implementation of Direct Benefit Transfer used in hundreds of government schemes that has prevented leakages in the system. "Today, people can see the benefits of aligning with the formal banking system," he said. Modi further said the trinity of Jan Dhan, Aadhaar and Mobile have broken down the mentality of 'Cash is King' and made way for approximately half of the <keyword id="20004116" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-transactions" source="keywords">digital transactions</keyword> in the world taking place in India. "India's <keyword id="19900911" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="upi" source="keywords">UPI</keyword> has become a major example of fintech in the world," he said, adding that it has enabled 24X7 banking services in every village and city in all weather conditions. Underlining the role of fintech in democratising financial services, the Prime Minister gave examples of readily available loans, credit cards, investments and insurance. He said that fintech has made access to credit easy and inclusive, and gave the example of PM SVANidhi scheme that has enabled street vendors to avail collateral-free loans and further expand their business with the help of digital transactions. "Sustainable <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> is India's priority today," he said and emphasised that the government is creating robust, transparent and efficient systems to strengthen financial markets with advanced technologies and regulatory frameworks. About 800 speakers, including policymakers, regulators, senior bankers, industry captains, and academicians, from India and other countries are participating in the fest.

Removed Angel Tax, taking policy measures to promote fintech sector: PM Modi

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Traders are increasingly pinning their hopes on an emergency Fed rate cut.</li><li>They currently see a 60% chance that central bankers will cut rates by 25 basis points within the next week.</li></ul>Wall Street has been so suddenly gripped by fears of recession that talks of an emergency rate cut are gathering steam.Traders are pricing in a 60% chance the Fed could issue an emergency 25 basis-point rate cut in the next week, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2024/08/04/bond-traders-bet-big-on-the-fed-launching-into-rescue-mode/">Bloomberg</a> reported.That's evidenced by an extreme rally in the US bond market, with US Treasury yields — which are tied to interest rate expectations — dropping to their lowest level in a year. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note plunged as much as 16 basis points on Monday, while the yield on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years?miRedirects=1">10-year Treasury note</a> dropped as much as 10 basis points.Investors in risk-off mode after an unexpectedly weak jobs report on Friday. Payroll growth slowed more than expected last month, while the unemployment rate surged. That <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sahm-rule-recession-outlook-indicator-triggered-unemployment-rate-jobs-report-2024-8">triggered the Sahm Rule</a>, a highly accurate recession indicator that flashes when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate surpasses a key threshold.That's led more investors to wonder whether the Fed made a mistake in waiting over 28 months from their first rate hike to ease monetary policy — with some urging central bankers to take drastic measures in the coming weeks.Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel pressed the Fed to issue an emergency 75 basis-point rate cut, followed by another 75 basis-point rate cut at their September policy meeting. Otherwise, markets risk responding poorly, since interest rates should be about 175 basis points lower from where they are now, he told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/whartons-jeremy-siegel-says-fed-needs-to-make-an-emergency-rate-cut.html">CNBC</a> in an interview on Monday."How much have we moved the fed funds rate? Zero," he said. "That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.""If they are going to be as slow on the way down as they were on the way up, which by the way was the first policy error in 50 years, then we're not in for a good time with this economy," Siegel later added.Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman also said he saw a case for an emergency rate cut, pointing to the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-nasdaq-enters-correction-territory-jobs-report-panic-2024-8">panicked selloff in stocks</a>."I wasn't calling for an inter-meeting cut, because that might signal panic. But since we may be seeing a panic anyway, that argument loses its force. Real case for an emergency cut soon," he said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/paulkrugman/status/1820426175031673269">post</a> on X.The Fed typically only implements interest rate changes during its scheduled policy meetings. But it has issued early rate moves during times of extreme volatility, such as during the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cut-zero-bond-holdings-coronavirus-pandemic-economy-2020-3">COVID-19 pandemic</a>, or the dot-com stock crash.Markets are also ramping up their bets for steeper-than-expected rate cuts through the end of the year. Investors are pricing in a 92% chance the Fed will cut rates by 100 basis points or more by the end of the year, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>, up from 0.2% odds priced in a week ago."We now expect faster cuts because the funds rate looks more clearly inappropriately high," Goldman Sachs economists said in a note on Monday, raising the odds of an incoming recession to 25%. "The Fed looks behind, having worried too much about inflation for too long and held steady in July; and the rationale for cutting now includes the more urgent priority of supporting the economy."

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