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For many Americans, the most important focus heading into a presidential election is how the winner will impact their wallet. Whatever your financial priorities, Business Insider has you covered with a five-part series on the impacts a Trump or a Harris presidency could have on US consumers.You can go deep on how the race for the White House could impact everything from childcare costs to housing to your grocery bill. Just follow the links below, or keep scrolling for a speed-read. Explore BI's election series:• <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact your investments</a>• <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">What's expected to get more and less expensive under Trump or Harris</a>• <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-affordability-supply-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-homebuyers-harris-trump-2024-10">How the cost of housing is expected to change under Trump or Harris</a>• <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">What a Trump or Harris presidency would mean for your tax bill</a>• <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/childcare-costs-presidential-election-scenarios-parents-paid-leave-harris-trump-2024-10">How the cost of childcare is expected to change under Trump or Harris</a> <h2 id="0f3ba487-221e-4717-9396-f6e71080aee6"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Investments</a></h2><h3 id="c604a2de-d86e-4c5a-8272-80c2c117fa03">Trump</h3>The former president's plan to cut the corporate tax rate is generally viewed as bullish for earnings, particularly for the consumer-discretionary, communication-services, and financial sectors. However, his plan to tax all US imports is viewed as a headwind that could be inflationary and hit consumer spending.If those inflation worries come true, interest rates would be higher and push bond prices lower. Trump is also seen as bullish for crypto, and his protectionist policies are viewed as likely to push the dollar higher.<h3 id="f5661b95-8cae-4195-968e-937088b5c035">Harris</h3>The current vice president's plan to raise the corporate tax rate is expected to hit the beneficiaries of Trump's proposed cut hardest. Her plan to regulate the financial sector is also seen as holding back stocks in the industry. On the positive side, Harris' policies would likely benefit homebuilder and renewable-energy stocks.Harris' plans are also considered to be less inflationary than Trump's, which would allow the Federal Reserve to keep cutting rates, boosting bond prices. Her continuity with President Joe Biden's policies is expected to push the dollar lower. Harris is also viewed as crypto-positive.<h2 id="9fffe11a-9455-431b-baef-03c634fbeb2b"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">Costs</a></h2><h3 id="4d8effe9-7729-4dbe-b985-0353c12003a7">Trump</h3>Trump's plan to impose a broad-based 10%-to-20% tariff on most goods brought in from other countries is widely viewed as making import-reliant products more expensive. Major categories with high potential tariff exposure include automobiles, drugs for human and veterinary use, food and beverage, furniture, and household appliances.Relatedly, the former president has previously said he'll lower grocery prices by restricting food imports to bolster domestic producers.<h3 id="c9f25ce7-8011-4641-a4cf-cdefe1de92d9">Harris</h3>While Harris could continue tariffs instated by Biden, her import-tax policy is seen as less inflationary than Trump's. For groceries, the vice president released a plan to tackle high food costs by implementing a federal ban on price gouging during national emergencies.For drug prices, Harris has promised to expand two provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act, allowing Medicare to negotiate the prices of some drugs.<h2 id="ed67f4da-e516-414c-ba19-f692892a0f86"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Housing</a></h2><h3 id="c3f2844c-6bb9-473d-91db-9163697e0f29">Trump</h3>Trump has said on the campaign trail that the ongoing housing shortage could be addressed by deporting millions of people from the country. The former president also said he could decrease demand by banning mortgages for immigrants living in the US illegally.Further — during his previous White House tenure — Trump opposed the construction of high-density housing in single-family-zoned areas, although he has not said during this election cycle whether he wants to continue pursuing similar policies.<h3 id="dd9ed82e-f056-4bf1-a84a-ce1071f56fc5">Harris</h3>Harris' planned policy includes the construction of 3 million new housing units, as well as an expansion to the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit. She also plans to create a $40 billion federal innovation fund that would encourage local governments to build housing.The vice president has also said she would take action against "corporate landlords" and call on Congress to remove tax benefits from investors who acquire 50 or more single-family rental homes.<h2 id="b0d6cc09-dd6b-4d2e-9216-5c8ecbcfa7e0"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">Taxes</a></h2><h3 id="206237a6-9eca-4208-bb25-b7f76c2ce845">Trump</h3>Trump has proposed lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for firms that make their products in the US.The former president has also said he plans to extend his slew of tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 — also known as the "Trump tax cut."A permanent continuation of the TCJA's income-tax provisions would amount to a nearly $280,000 tax cut for the top 0.1% of earners, compared to $1,000 for middle-income Americas, a Tax Policy Center analysis found. Trump's plan for universal tariffs is seen as offsetting a positive tax impact and would be especially costly for lower-earning Americans.<h3 id="77d8ca5f-0db1-4a2a-87e9-9b8e7ae5c85b">Harris</h3>Harris wants to bump up the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, while also proposing some specific breaks for small businesses.The vice president has also proposed an expanded earned-income tax credit aimed at lower earners, and she wants to restore and expand upon a more generous child tax credit, similar to the one implemented under Biden's pandemic-relief bill in 2021. Harris also shares some middle ground with Trump in terms of wanting to eliminate taxes on tips.For high-income earners, Harris supports two measures that have gained traction during the Biden administration: targeting ultrawealthy investors' capital gains, and imposing a minimum income tax on billionaires.<h2 id="2804ce0e-fc32-40e9-803e-c53a6b31f02b"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/childcare-costs-presidential-election-scenarios-parents-paid-leave-harris-trump-2024-10">Childcare</a></h2><h3 id="ed726a64-f988-4421-a339-c95f21949f4f">Trump</h3>Trump has also proposed expanding the child tax credit, which currently provides up to $2,000 per child. In August, the vice presidential candidate JD Vance floated a child tax credit proposal that would include $5,000 per child for families of all income levels.In addition, while previously in office, Trump signed a bipartisan bill that provided federal employees with 12 weeks of paid parental leave, although he hasn't emphasized the issue on the 2024 campaign trail.<h3 id="e35abccd-064c-4d14-947d-2de0192dc4b9">Harris</h3>Harris has promised to cap families' childcare costs at no more than 7% of their incomes, compared to the between 8% and 19.3% spent by the median American family in 2022. The vice president's child tax credit policy would restore the enhanced pandemic-era credit, giving parents up to $3,600 annually per child, with the amount dependent on a child's age and family income.Further, during her run for president in 2020, Harris supported a six-month paid-leave policy for Americans with a new child or a sick relative.

How the election will impact your wallet

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump has won the US presidency in sweeping fashion.</li><li>His proposed policies, particularly wide-reaching tariffs, are expected to have a major impact on consumers.</li></ul>Now that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">Donald Trump has been declared the winner</a> of the 2024 election, American consumers are on the lookout for what a Trump 2.0 presidency will mean for their finances.From investment portfolios to childcare costs, there could be substantial changes. Central to Trump's overall platform is his plan to enact tariffs on nearly all US imports, which is seen as driving inflation higher.Detailed below are five categories — investments, overall costs, housing, taxes, and childcare — that US consumers can expect to feel impacted by a new Trump regime.<h2 id="d30df8a9-d8f0-4701-8583-83a332628411"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Investments</a></h2>Trump's plan to cut the corporate tax rate is generally viewed as bullish for earnings, particularly for the consumer-discretionary, communication-services, and financial sectors. However, his plan to tax all US imports is viewed as a headwind that could be inflationary and hit consumer spending.If those inflation worries come true, interest rates would be higher and push bond prices lower. Trump is also seen as bullish for crypto, and his protectionist policies are viewed as likely to push the dollar higher.These moves played out after Trump secured victory, with the so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11">Trump trade soaring</a>: stocks, Treasury yields, dollar, and bitcoin moved sharply higher.<h2 id="9fffe11a-9455-431b-baef-03c634fbeb2b"><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">Costs</a></h2>Trump's plan to impose a broad-based 10%-to-20% tariff on most goods brought in from other countries — and as much as 60% on Chinese imports — is widely viewed as making import-reliant products more expensive. Major categories with high potential tariff exposure include automobiles, drugs for human and veterinary use, food and beverage, furniture, and household appliances.Relatedly, the former president has previously said he'll lower grocery prices by restricting food imports to bolster domestic producers.<h2 id="3a8b1c41-e43c-4dca-b716-d8a1ee2acef2"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Housing</a></h2>Trump said on the campaign trail that the ongoing housing shortage could be addressed by deporting millions of people from the country. The newly elected president has also said he could decrease demand by banning mortgages for immigrants living in the US illegally.During his previous White House tenure, Trump opposed the construction of high-density housing in single-family-zoned areas, although did not say during this election cycle whether he wants to continue pursuing similar policies.Further, if Trump's presidency is inflationary and leads to interest-rate hikes, that would hit housing affordability in the form of higher mortgage rates, which track the Fed's benchmark.<h2 id="b0d6cc09-dd6b-4d2e-9216-5c8ecbcfa7e0"><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">Taxes</a></h2>Trump has proposed lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for firms that make their products in the US.The former president has also said he plans to extend his slew of tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 — also known as the "Trump tax cut."A permanent continuation of the TCJA's income-tax provisions would amount to a nearly $280,000 tax cut for the top 0.1% of earners, compared to $1,000 for middle-income Americas, a Tax Policy Center analysis found. Trump's plan for universal tariffs is seen as offsetting a positive tax impact and would be especially costly for lower-earning Americans.<h2 id="2804ce0e-fc32-40e9-803e-c53a6b31f02b"><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/childcare-costs-presidential-election-scenarios-parents-paid-leave-harris-trump-2024-10">Childcare</a></h2>Trump has proposed expanding the child tax credit, which currently provides up to $2,000 per child. In August, the vice presidential candidate JD Vance floated a child tax credit proposal that would include $5,000 per child for families of all income levels.In addition, while previously in office, Trump signed a bipartisan bill that provided federal employees with 12 weeks of paid parental leave, although he didn't emphasize the issue on the 2024 campaign trail.

How Trump's election victory will impact your wallet

Domestic <keyword id="21999883" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="passenger-vehicle-retail-sales" source="keywords">passenger vehicle retail sales</keyword> declined 1 per cent year-on-year in May, as blistering <keyword id="21177616" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="summer-heat" source="keywords">summer heat</keyword> and elections impacted demand, <keyword id="21580028" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="automobile-dealers" source="keywords">automobile dealers</keyword>' body <keyword id="20108734" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FADA" source="keywords">FADA</keyword> said on Monday. Passenger vehicle registrations dipped to 3,03,358 units last month, as compared with 3,35,123 units in May 2023. "Dealers cited the impact of elections, extreme heat and market liquidity issues as major factors for the dip in sales last month," the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) President Manish Raj Singhania said. Despite better supply, some pending bookings and discount schemes, the lack of new models, intense competition and poor marketing efforts by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) also affected sales, he added. Additionally, the month saw increased customer postponements and low enquiries, Singhania stated. Due to the extreme heat, the number of walk-ins to showrooms dropped by around 18 per cent, he said. Two-wheeler sales rose 2 per cent to 15,34,856 units in May, as against 14,97,778 units in the same month last year. Singhania said positive rural demand on account of good rains in some regions and improved finance availability kept the counters ticking. Three-wheeler retails rose 20 per cent year-on-year to 98,265 units last month. While commercial vehicle sales witnessed an increase of 4 per cent at 83,059 units last month, as compared to 79,807 units in May 2023. "Despite growth due to a low base from last year and increased bus orders, the industry faced challenges due to wholesale pressures, government policy effects, and negative market sentiment," Singhania said. He noted that the near-term outlook for automobile retail is 'cautiously optimistic', influenced by a mix of positive and challenging factors across various segments. Government formation is expected to bring stability and improve market sentiment, Singhania said. Dealers are hopeful about better supplies and positive movement in key sectors like cement, coal and iron ore, he said. Above normal rains during monsoon, is expected to enhance rural demand and support economic activities, he added. "However, extreme weather, such as heatwaves and heavy rains, along with the reopening of schools in July, might delay purchase decisions," Singhania said. Challenges persist, including intense competition, lack of new model launches and poor marketing efforts by OEMs, he said. FADA, which represents over 15,000 automobile dealerships having over 30,000 dealership outlets, collated sales data from 1,360 out of 1,503 RTOs across the country. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/tata-altroz-racer-hatchback-launched-in-india-starting-at-9-49-lakh/articleshow/110798203.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/tata-altroz-racer-hatchback-launched-in-india-starting-at-9-49-lakh/articleshow/110798203.cms" target="_blank">Tata Altroz Racer hatchback launched in India starting at ₹9.49 lakh</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/webstories/nvidia-beats-apple-becomes-second-most-valuable-company-top-10-companies-by-market-cap/slidelist/110793951.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/webstories/nvidia-beats-apple-becomes-second-most-valuable-company-top-10-companies-by-market-cap/slidelist/110793951.cms" target="_blank">Nvidia beats Apple, becomes second most valuable company: Top 10 companies by market cap</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indian-smartwatch-shipments-remain-flat-in-q1-2024-the-year-expected-to-end-in-a-decline/articleshow/110789121.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indian-smartwatch-shipments-remain-flat-in-q1-2024-the-year-expected-to-end-in-a-decline/articleshow/110789121.cms" target="_blank">Indian smartwatch shipments remain flat in Q1 2024, annual shipments expected to end in a decline</a>

Passenger vehicle retail sales dip 1% in May as excessive heat, elections impact demand: FADA

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/earnings-report-big-expectations-investment-jobs-added-2024-10">Earnings season</a> is offering insight into how the US presidential election may impact big companies.</li><li>So far, companies are commenting on how Election Day itself could sway their financial results.</li></ul>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-national-polls-election-2024-10">US presidential election</a> is just under three weeks away, and companies from Citigroup to Delta are flagging how it might affect their businesses.CEOs and other business leaders have weighed in on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-billionaires-investors-kamala-harris-mark-cuban-reid-hoffman-2024-8">Kamala Harris</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-tax-cuts-ceos-tim-cook-jamie-dimon-wall-street-2024-6">Donald Trump</a>, and the effects that each candidate would have on their companies if elected.But they're also pointing to the effects that Election Day, November 5, will likely have on their businesses — everything from drinkers buying less to companies issuing debt sooner.Here are some of the election's potential effects, as described by major companies on their recent quarterly earnings calls:<h2 id="33f7e689-7dbf-44f1-9074-7fc876ca9331">Drinkers could pull back on beer, Modelo's maker said</h2>Constellation Brands, which makes Corona and Modelo, often sees beer consumption slow down around contentious US elections, CEO William Newlands said during an earnings call on October 3."Whenever there is a scenario where you have a federal election that is close, you often have people pull back," Newlands said. "You see it across the whole consumer sector, and that is consistent as well."Constellation expects beer sales to pick up again after the election is decided, he added.<h2 id="3e0e6379-473b-405d-a024-c32d55641b72">Delta expects a hit to revenue as fewer people travel around Election Day</h2>People will likely hold off on other kinds of spending around Election Day.Delta Air Lines, for instance, expects a 1 percentage point hit to its revenue this quarter as people avoid traveling in the two weeks around Election Day, Glen Hauenstein, Delta's president, said on Thursday.That two-week period will be "way off-trend," Hauenstein said on Delta's earnings call."As we've seen historically, domestic travel demand is impacted in the weeks surrounding the election," he said.Delta saw something similar happen after the 2016 election, Hauenstein said at the time. "The election came, and almost instantly, almost to the week after the election day, it seemed like there was an incredible amount of pent-up demand in the system," he said at an investor day event in December that year.<h2 id="d08da4af-d648-40fc-8a9b-769b9505e4b7">Companies are issuing debt ahead of Election Day, according to Citigroup</h2>Investment banking fees rose 44% during Citigroup's third quarter, CEO Jane Fraser said."That's driven by investment-grade debt issuance as our clients pulled forward activity ahead of the US election," Fraser said on an earnings call Tuesday.Other major investment banks, such as Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, kept quiet on their own calls Tuesday about the effects of Election Day or any potential impacts from a win from either presidential candidate.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-impact-on-stock-market-tax-tariff-filibuster-harris-trump-2024-9">Differences between Harris and Trump</a> on taxes, tariffs, and other issues could lead to very different outcomes for Wall Street depending on who wins the presidential election.

Companies are talking about how Election Day will impact them, from slowing beer sales to people flying less

<ul class="summary-list"><li>On a highly charged election night, some Americans are ready to go out and party.</li><li>Others will have a more low-key night, staying at home and ordering in.</li></ul>Many Arizonans are still undecided — on which strain of weed they want to smoke on election night, that is.That's the report from Curaleaf, a global cannabis company that is rolling out its own mini-election. In Arizona, Florida, New York, and Illinois, they've repurposed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/health/weed-strains">three hybrid strains</a> — all fairly similar in potency and all generally thought of as more relaxing highs — into the Donald OG, Kamala Kush, and Space Jill."We have no horse in the race other than we want people, our consumer base, to come into our stores relative to the competition," Luke Flood, a senior VP at Curaleaf, said. "And we want them to — in a respectful, inclusive, insightful manner — support their candidates through the products that we produce and which they ultimately will buy."The Donald OG has a slight edge in Arizona — although Flood said it's been changing by the day. That's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-presidential-election-swing-state-polls-sun-belt-2024-10">eerily similar to national polling</a>.<div type="image" title="a nugget of &quot;donald OG&quot; marijuana" height="1080" width="1080" msid="114880474" hostid="261" sizebytes="56516"></div>For some Americans, election night means the opportunity to let off steam, and businesses across the nation — from doggy day cares to drag bars — are ready to receive beleaguered voters. In Tacoma, Washington, a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://grandcinema.com/movie/election-night-watch-party/">theater will screen the results</a>. In Lansing, Michigan, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.eventbrite.com/e/for-the-people-2024-election-watch-party-tickets-1027458946367">partygoers</a> will play voting bingo, enjoy a barbecue buffet, and jam to a local disc jockey. Not everyone will show up; some people and businesses alike told BI they want to avoid the crowds and politics altogether.Even those leaning into the festivities told BI they are trying to keep it bipartisan, and some are worried about security. Welcome to the election night economy."We're selling a product that we like to think brings people joy, brings people relaxation, and it's been met with a lot of positivity, which we're very thrilled about," Flood said.<h2 id="c1426a55-b068-4b52-bb94-12b7b97b0601">Drag queens, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and hookah — oh my</h2>In Washington, DC, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.hawkndovebardc.com/">Hawk N Dove</a> — an infamous Capitol Hill bar — is bracing for impact.Leah Kolb, the general manager and events coordinator, said the venue, which prides itself on being a stalwart bipartisan political bar, saw lines out the door for the presidential debate in September. She anticipates it will be open until at least midnight on election night, two hours past its usual closing time.Kolb said the bar attracts a true bipartisan crowd. Marjorie Taylor Greene is a regular, and there's a monthly Democratic social with a group of young Hill staffers. No matter who's there, the bar's TVs typically play both CNN and Fox.With Congress on recess, it's been relatively quiet over the last few weeks. Kolb anticipates that'll change on Tuesday; she's planning to staff as many people as possible and is also considering upping security precautions."It's going to be really wild for us to go from zero to 160 miles an hour next Tuesday," Kolb said. "I can see it happening, and I think it's going to be an all-day thing."In Philadelphia, the co-owner of <a target="_blank" href="https://levelupphl.com/">Level Up Bar &amp; Lounge</a> anticipates having roughly 100 people come out for an election night watch party. Ken Lowe Jr. said the venue is planning on running a hookah special and is working out a possible food and drink special, too. Lowe said he has a liquor order scheduled for the day of the election to ensure they have enough.Philly is a bright blue spot in a swing state that's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retirement-pennsylvania-social-security-medicare-trump-harris-election-2024-10">receiving</a> the full attention of both candidates and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pennsylvania-grocery-store-voters-talk-economy-inflation-harris-trump-2024-10">the press</a>. Lowe said he wants to cater to Pennsylvanians who are burned out on the election and avoid partisan politics."We're going to try to keep it just music, party, have a good time," Lowe said.Up in Rochester, New York, the <a target="_blank" href="https://roccinema.com/have-an-amazing-experience-at-roc-cinema/">Roc Cinema</a> is expecting up to 100 patrons for its Divas of Democracy election night watch party hosted by drag queens Darienne Lake and Aggy Dune. Owner Kristina Dinino-Jeffords said it'll be an all-hands-on-deck event at the mixed-use theater venue. Patrons will be able to choose from a selection of drink specials: There's the All American, the Kamala, the MAGA-rita, and the Undecided.<div type="image" title="Drag queens Aggy Dune (left) and Darienne Lake (right) both in blue" height="4050" width="6480" msid="114880476" hostid="261" sizebytes="1451850"></div>"Drag is the freedom to express ourselves in an artistic way. Last I checked, our country celebrates freedom," Darienne Lake said in an email statement to BI, adding, "The audience can expect a night that mimics our current political climate. Wildly entertaining and unpredictable."<h2 id="e70fb1a2-f81e-405e-b940-7b81ff147e17">Prepping to vote, stay home, and recover</h2>Many Americans will opt to stay home and perhaps order in on election night. Data provided by food delivery company Gopuff showed sales increased 20% on election night 2020 compared to the Tuesday prior, and battleground states saw more orders than non-battleground states. Sparkling wine and Champagne sales were up 116%.Sales were particularly concentrated from 8 p.m. to 10 p.m., as election results started to pour in. That may have been stomach-churning for some: Gopuff said there was a 70% increase in sales of digestive products like Tums and Pepto Bismol.Between the weed and the partying, Americans might also be planning for recovery: Dr. Abe Malkin, the CEO and founder of mobile IV company <a target="_blank" href="https://driphydration.com/">Drip Hydration</a>, told BI he's planning for "quite high" <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-diary-make-6-figures-giving-private-iv-infusion-therapy-2021-11">demand for their IV services</a> the day after election night.And don't forget the furry friends. In Pennsylvania, <a target="_blank" href="https://walkerspethotail.com/">Walkers Pet HoTail</a> will continue on a tradition — they'll offer free doggie day care for any dogs whose humans show an "I voted" sticker. Day care usually runs around <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://walkerspethotail.com/home-page/doggie-daycare/doggie-daycare-deals-2/">$35 to $38 a day per dog</a>, depending on how big they are."We know it's difficult for people to get out of the house and stuff, to be able to go and vote. So we want to make that a little bit easier," Andrew Lehn, the general manager at Walkers Pet HoTail, told BI, adding voters won't have to worry about leaving their fur babies at home alone.<div type="image" title="lucybelle the dog in a red, white, and blue boa" height="960" width="720" msid="114880479" hostid="261" sizebytes="94928"></div>Some workers are opting out of election night completely. Kitty Rayborn, a 48-year-old bartender at a fine-dining steakhouse in Texas, asked for the night off months ago. She usually works on Tuesdays and said it's one of the restaurant's busiest nights, especially during happy hour. This year, she said, she needs to be at home with family. She estimated she's forfeiting $400 to $500 in tips."On election night, whether the results are on TV or not, I know that I would be paying attention," "There's no way it wouldn't be a topic of conversation, and, as passionate as I am about it, I would not be able to keep my mouth shut and I would wind up getting myself fired. I'm a hundred percent sure of it."

Barbecue, bingo, and bipartisan partying: How America is preparing for election night

<keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> are navigating choppy waters as global economic shifts, from rate cuts to evolving political climates, create new pressure points across the financial landscape, according to a recent report by ANI attributed originally to the Union Bank of India. The domestic stock and bond markets showed signs of strain, with <keyword id="19910363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-yields" source="keywords">bond yields</keyword> witnessing slight adjustments. India’s 10-year government bond yield dipped to 6.82%, a decrease from the previous session, reflecting cautious investor sentiment as the markets react to shifting global indicators. Meanwhile, the 5-year bond yield remained steady at 6.76%, a signal of lingering hesitation amid economic unpredictability. In the currency market, the rupee faced a notable decline, ending the day at ₹84.3725 against the US dollar, slipping from its prior close of ₹84.2800. Market analysts point to significant capital outflows as a key factor, with investors moving funds to perceived safer assets overseas. This migration has weighed heavily on the rupee, underlining the currency’s vulnerability in an environment of global economic flux. India’s stock market bore the brunt of this volatility, with key indices falling over 1%, effectively erasing the gains of a previous rally. This abrupt drop reportedly reflects renewed investor anxiety, largely triggered by the recent <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword> results. Experts suggest that the election has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty, not only for the US economy but for global markets, impacting everything from policy decisions to investor sentiment. Analysts are also keeping a close eye on upcoming decisions by central banks, which will likely shape the path forward for the Indian equities market. Commodities showed contrasting trends, with Brent crude prices falling on lower demand expectations, as economic indicators point toward cautious spending globally. Gold, on the other hand, experienced a modest rise as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets, highlighting a shift towards risk aversion among market participants. Globally, major central banks made coordinated efforts to sustain economic growth, with the Bank of England (BoE) announcing a 25 basis-point cut, lowering its benchmark rate to 4.75%. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) largely backed this move to counter inflation, which has been declining, albeit gradually. Across the Atlantic, the US Federal Reserve mirrored this action with its own 25 basis-point cut, a sign of confidence in the ongoing economic recovery. Both rate cuts, though modest, signal a global trend towards caution as economies work to balance growth with stability. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its supportive stance. Governor Pan Gongsheng sought to reassure foreign investors by reaffirming the PBoC’s commitment to growth-oriented policies. Pan emphasized enhanced communication and pledged to open China’s financial services sector further, aiming to attract more international participants. Europe, meanwhile, faced mixed economic signals. Germany reported a steep 2.5% drop in industrial production in September, signalling a slowdown in manufacturing, while the Eurozone saw a mild 0.5% rise in retail sales, reflecting cautious consumer optimism in the region. Adding another layer to the global economic landscape, the European Union’s Climate Change Service warned that 2024 could be the hottest year on record, underscoring urgent climate challenges just as the UN COP29 climate summit approaches. The summit, set to take place in Azerbaijan, aims to rally increased funding for climate action, though tempered expectations linger in light of recent US political shifts. On the domestic front, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam spoke about India’s potential role in pivotal global trade agreements, specifically the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). These partnerships, Subrahmanyam suggested, could bolster India’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector, which currently accounts for 40% of India’s exports, offering a strategic advantage for Indian trade in an interconnected world. As the Indian markets digest these developments, experts believe continued volatility could be the theme for the coming months. (with ANI inputs)

Indian markets under pressure as global rate cuts stir uncertainty, new report says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bitcoin's price could rise over time as more tokens get "burned" after being lost.</li><li>Bitcoin that's lost either when an investor dies or is simply locked out of their wallet reduces available supply.</li></ul>Widening trade deficits, a $35 trillion pile of debt, and the consistent loss of the US dollar's purchasing power have long been heralded as the key pillars of the bitcoin bull thesis.Even a potential <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-soars-crypto-president-donald-trumps-election-betting-odds-2024-10">Donald Trump election win in November</a> has been ascribed to the cryptocurrency's recent bullish behavior.The world's largest crypto is only a few percentage points away from a fresh all-time high.Yet, there's a structural bull case that doesn't get talked about much, even though it could have a considerable impact on the long-term price of bitcoin: tokens lost in the event of death or just poor planning.This argument arose recently with the latest furor around <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-anonymous-peter-todd-hbo-documentary-satoshi-nakamoto-crypto-2024-10">the potential unmasking</a> of bitcoin's pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, in an HBO documentary released this month. Before it premiered, some theorized that their identity was the American computer programmer Len Sassaman, who died in 2011.Satoshi Nakamoto being deceased would potentially soothe a big fear that's loomed over the bitcoin market for years, which is that the person could sell their estimated 1 million bitcoin.That is a substantial percentage of the 21 million bitcoin that will ever exist, and such a massive sale was long feared as a bearish event for the token.If Satoshi did not leave proper instructions to transfer the assets upon their death, then the fixed supply of 21 million bitcoins is probably closer to 20 million.Sean Farrell, head of digital assets strategy at Fundstrat, highlighted this dynamic in a note earlier this month."There's a slight upside risk if they identify someone who is deceased, as this would effectively 'burn' Satoshi's supply for good," Farrell said."Bitcoin's true float is undoubtedly below 21 million," Farrell told Business Insider. "This is something that we all know to be true but is nearly impossible to verify."That's also because losing bitcoin is relatively easy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/james-howells-threw-away-bitcoin-dump-masterplan-get-back-2022-7">even when you're still alive.</a>Lost bitcoin essentially "burns" it, decreasing the amount available for investors to purchase and reinforcing a basic economic principle: less supply means higher prices with constant or increasing demand.Farrell estimates that about 1.5 million bitcoins, or about 7.5% of the total supply, could be deemed "probably lost" because they haven't moved since the launch of the first bitcoin exchange in 2010, about one year after bitcoin was created.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/12/13/half-a-billion-in-bitcoin-lost-in-the-dump">A story in The New Yorker in 2021</a> profiled a man in Wales who lost a trove of bitcoin that, at that time, was worth around $500 million when he accidentally threw a hard drive containing his bitcoin stash in the dump."It is probably only with the passage of time that we can get a sense for just how much of the bitcoin supply has been lost," Farrell said.Sophisticated investors who own a large amount of bitcoin often store the cryptocurrency on encrypted cold wallets to protect against hacks.In these cases, that means the bitcoin is not held on an exchange like Coinbase, which has a recovery process for family members of deceased customers.Rather, it's typically held on a physical USB drive that could look meaningless to an unassuming eye and get easily lost or looked over in the shuffle of cleaning up an estate.Bitcoin's decentralized nature means no bank or authority can access or recover the assets without the private key to the wallet or hard drive. "Unlike traditional financial accounts, there is no institution to contact to recover your cryptocurrency. If no one has your private key, the funds will be locked permanently," Wealthica CEO Eric Lemieux told Business Insider.He added: "If you store your bitcoin in a cold wallet and die without giving someone access to your private recovery keys or recovery phrases, the bitcoin could be lost forever."Lemieux said it is imperative for bitcoin investors who hold the asset on a cold wallet to ensure that their estate planning "includes your private key or recovery phrase through a lawyer or encrypted document stored securely."Otherwise, more lost bitcoin could mean even higher prices for the crypto.

The under-the-radar bull case for bitcoin that's got nothing to do with the election or the Fed

<ul><li>Two-wheeler sales in December were driven by weddings and harvest payments to farmers. </li><li>Increased marketing, elections, crop prices and potential fuel price reductions can drive the 2W market in the long-term, says FADA. </li><li>The personal vehicle category continues to face high inventory challenges even as SUVs see good traction. </li></ul>The two wheeler industry looks to be on the upshift mode after reporting a sharp rise in sales in December. The category grew 28% year on year, outpacing the entire auto retail for the month which grew at 21% in the same period as per a release by Federation of Automobile Dealers Association (FADA). Moreover, the first half of the year looks promising with multiple tailwinds. In December, the two-wheeler sales were driven by an abundance of wedding dates and the distribution of harvest payments to farmers, which enhanced purchasing power. “The availability of a wide range of models and variants, coupled with favourable weather conditions and a generally positive market sentiment, contributed to this robust growth,” said Manish Raj Singhania, president of FADA. Now, increased marketing efforts, buzz around general elections, possible good crop prices and potential fuel price reductions are short-term drivers that will push demand post mid-January. This as the inauspicious Kharmas period, that started on December 16 will end on January 15. In the long-term, festivals, robust wedding season in the first quarter of 2024, is also expected to push demand. “The sector expects a boost from new model launches, especially in the first half of the year, and an overall better economic condition coupled with higher EV participation. Improved customer sentiments, due to factors like lower fuel prices and crop payments to farmers, are likely to drive demand,” FADA says. All India vehicle retail data for December 2023 <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Category </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">December 2023 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">% change YoY </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Two wheelers </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">14,49,693 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">27.56% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Three wheelers </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">95,449 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">36.40% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">PV </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2,93,005 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2.65% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Tractors </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">78,872 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">0.2% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Commercial Vehicles </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">73,896 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1.31% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Total </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">19,90,915 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">21.14% </td></tr></tbody></table>Source: FADA PVs: The stress of inventory overhang The sales of passenger vehicles (PV) paled in comparison to 2Ws and three-wheelers, growing by 3% year on year in December. The PV category continues to face challenges with high inventory levels, despite a slight decline observed at the end of December. The average inventory for PVs ranges from 55-58 days, while the same stands at 15-20 days for 2Ws. “A significant concern was the high inventory levels, reflecting over-supply. This ongoing issue of high PV inventory, despite a slight decrease by the year's end, remains a critical area for OEMs to address, emphasizing the need for further moderation in inventory management," said Singhania. Within PVs however SUVs saw strong demand, with extended waiting periods for key models. This surge was fuelled by aggressive year-end promotions and the introduction of new models. In the short-term, the sector will have to focus on clearing pending bookings and launching new 2024 models. Despite concerns over high inventory levels and the impact of year-end discounts, positive market sentiments and the introduction of new models are likely to drive growth, FADA says. New launches, stable market sentiments and many OEMs launching their EVs should keep the PV market busy in 2024. “However, caution should be exercised regarding excess inventory as well as the need to match production with actual market demand,” says FADA.

Shifting gears: Election and crop payments to drive 2-wheeler sales in first half of 2024

<ul><li>A repo <keyword id="6451065" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-hike" source="Orion">rate hike</keyword>, which was widely expected by the market, could have pushed <keyword id="6419450" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="home-loan-rates" source="Orion">home loan rates</keyword> even higher. </li><li>In the last three quarters, home loan rates have gone up by 40-50% from their historical lows. </li><li>RBI’s decision particularly gives relief to affordable and mid-segment homebuyers. </li></ul>The real estate sector has welcomed the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to keep the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rbis-monetary-policy-committee-keeps-repo-rate-unchanged-at-6-5/articleshow/99284354.cms">key policy rate unchanged</a> on Thursday. The move will also bring cheer to home loan borrowers – both old and new – as home loan rates have been hovering around 9%, following the central bank’s six consecutive rate hikes totaling 250 basis points since May last year. “The RBI MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) decision to keep a pause on rate hike is positive for the housing market as it reduces the uncertainty and volatility associated with interest rate fluctuations. The home loan interest rates have gone up from 6.5% to around 8.75% with a series of rate hikes in the past and the move to pause will give a temporary reprieve and support the existing growth momentum in the real estate sector,” said Atul Monga, chief executive officer and co-founder, Basic Home Loan. Another rate hike, which was expected by the market, could have pushed home loan rates into double digit trajectory. Ramani Sastri, chairman and managing director of Sterling Developers, said that another increase in policy rates could have sent interest rates on home loans to an all-time high – impacting buyer sentiments and affordability. After multiple rate hikes in six months, experts had said that the room to keep home loan EMIs unchanged for existing borrowers by <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/how-to-ensure-your-home-loan-is-paid-off-before-retirement/articleshow/99106468.cms">increased tenure had been exhausted</a> – burdening end users. “The past three quarters have seen a gradual rise in home loan interest rates, causing a significant impact on borrowers as rates have surged to over 9%, marking a 40-50% increase from their historical low,” said Pradeep Aggarwal, founder and chairman, Signature Global (India). Q1 home sales hold steady amid global turmoil In spite of the multiple rate hikes, residential home sales continued its winning streak in the first quarter of 2023, after hitting a nine-year high in 2022. As many as 1.13 lakh units sold in Q1 2023 across the top seven cities, says Anarock data — indicating a 14% yearly rise. However, going ahead, the sector had been worried about the impact of rising property prices due to input costs, and also multiple layoffs across large and small corporates affecting homebuyer sentiment. "Given the potential adverse impact of a hike in repo rate and its ripple effect on both housing demand and supply, we, at CREDAI, are extremely pleased and welcome the central bank’s decision,” said Boman Irani, president-elect, CREDAI National. Affordable loans, affordable homes Even as overall home sales hit new highs, the affordable housing segment never recovered after being hit badly by the pandemic. “The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rates unchanged comes as a welcome respite to homebuyers. This particularly gives relief to affordable and mid segment homebuyers who feared a possible rate hike today, making property buying via home loans even harder. As is, affordable housing has been under stress since the pandemic,” said Anuj Puri, chairman of Anarock group. Affordable homes, which are defined as units priced under ₹40 lakh, saw their share in overall sales dip to 26% in 2022, as compared to 38% in 2019. In Q1 of 2023, their share slipped to 20%, says Anarock. The pause in rate hike, alongwith the government hiking its outlay for the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) programme in 2023-24 Budget will bode well for demand in affordable housing, says Irani. The RBI marginally revised the GDP growth projections for FY24 from 6.4% to 6.5% – this too will bode well for the sector. “We foresee a resilient upward demand trajectory going forward. The momentum in the market is currently driven by the need to upgrade to a better living and the admiration of real estate as a weatherproof asset class, which will continue during the year,” says Nitin Bavisi, chief financial officer, Ajmera Realty and Infra India. Going ahead, the sector is also seeking more incentives to drive more demand. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/how-to-ensure-your-home-loan-is-paid-off-before-retirement/articleshow/99106468.cms">Rising interest rates hitting you hard? Here’s how to ensure your home loan is paid off before retirement</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rbis-monetary-policy-committee-keeps-repo-rate-unchanged-at-6-5/articleshow/99284354.cms">RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, for now</a>

Monetary Policy Impact: RBI’s pause to support real estate demand - particularly affordable segment

Mumbai, <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s gold demand witnessed on-year decline of 3 per cent at 747.5 tonnes in 2023, and going ahead the spurt in demand could be anywhere between 800-900 tonnes, if prices hold out and are not significantly volatile, the <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-gold-council" source="keywords">World Gold Council</keyword> said in a report. The country's total gold demand stood at 774.1 tonnes in 2022, according to the World Gold Council (<keyword id="20256712" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wgc" source="keywords">WGC</keyword>) Gold Demand Trends report 2023. "India's gold demand in 2023 declined by 3 per cent to 747.5 tonnes, strongly influenced by rising gold prices. Although consumer interest remained high, it lagged trade sentiment. October's price correction during <keyword id="20023931" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="navratri" source="keywords">Navratri</keyword> stimulated a robust consumer response, boosting Diwali sales in November. "However, demand declined in December as gold prices resumed an upward trend, resulting in a 9 per cent drop in fourth quarter jewellery demand compared to the same period of 2022," <keyword id="20399154" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wgc-regional" source="keywords">WGC Regional</keyword> CEO, India, Somasundaram PR told PTI. Price of gold was volatile throughout 2023, with the yellow metal reaching a new high of Rs 61,845 per 10 gm on May 4 in the domestic market and USD 2,083 an ounce in global markets, and this trend continued with the precious metal reaching another high of Rs 61,914 per 10 grams in November 16. Looking forward to 2024, India's gold demand should benefit from ongoing positive economic conditions and if the prices hold out are not significantly volatile there is likely to be a big spurt in demand which could be anywhere between 800-900 tonnes, he said. "The subdued demand range of 700-800 tonnes since 2019 attributable to continuous rise in prices, increase in duties, stock market outperformance, near-term elections spending impact and acceptance of elevated price levels, suggest the potential for a spurt in demand in the near future. However, any short-term impediments to higher demand could arise from another round of sharp price hikes and volatility triggered by global factors," he added. The total jewellery demand in India dropped by 6 per cent to 562.3 tonnes in 2023, compared to 600.6 tonnes in the previous year, the report stated. Meanwhile, the total gold investment demand in the country grew by 7 per cent to 185.2 tonnes, compared to 173.6 tonnes in the previous year, the WGC report said. "Bar and coin investment in India rebounded, growing by 7 per cent to 185 tonnes year-on-year. The fourth quarter demand touched 67 tonnes, 64 per cent above the five-year quarterly average. "The correction in gold prices led to some robust investment responses in third and fourth quarters, supported by increased interest from physically backed gold ETF investors, setting total holdings in Indian-listed products to a record 42 tonnes by year-end," Somasundaram said. He said that recycling was 20 per cent higher due to low and supportive higher prices but at 117 tonnes, could be considered the normative expected level. Total gold imported to India in 2023 was 780.7 tonnes, up by 20 per cent compared to 650.7 tonnes in 2022, according to the report. "Net gold imports surged by 20 per cent to 780.7 tonnes in 2023, primarily due to substantial inventory building by the trade. "In 2024, gold imports are likely to be higher than the demand. The various Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) India has inked with many countries are expected to boost gold imports further this year," noted Somasundaram.

India's gold demand dips 3% in 2023 on high prices: World Gold Council

<ul><li>Experts believe that the market has mostly priced <keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bjp" source="keywords">BJP</keyword>’s win as a single party as well as a BJP-led coalition.</li><li>If BJP gets a single-party majority, progress could be seen in clean energy, and higher infra spending, says <keyword id="19996294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ubs" source="keywords">UBS</keyword>.</li><li>Women-centric policies have been improving, especially after female turnout was higher than that of males in 2019. </li></ul>As <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword> marches towards elections, research firms are projecting various scenarios based on possible outcomes. As per a report by the multinational investment bank UBS, if the ruling BJP gets a single-party majority, there could be policy continuity, which can bode well for business sentiment. Even the elusive private capex recovery might also receive a push. “Further progress in supply-side reforms could be seen, including the clean energy transition, higher infrastructure spending - both digital and physical, a manufacturing push and other targeted policy initiatives towards the youth, poor, women and farmers,” says UBS. Alternate scenarios Experts believe that the market has mostly priced BJP’s win as a single party as well as a BJP-led coalition. If a scenario where the BJP fails to get a majority on its own and a BJP-led coalition comes to power, reform momentum could broadly remain similar. However, some tough policy decisions may not progress and/or are likely to be put on hold, including disinvestments, the land bill, and a uniform civil code. “However, comfort about fiscal discipline could be less of a concern for investors in this scenario,” says UBS about a BJP-led coalition winning. The third outcome could be a weak coalition led by the INDIA alliance. Even in the third case, the economic policy approach would be largely aligned. However, in such a scenario, markets could have concerns about fiscal discipline and a less decisive government, leading to lags in implementing supply-side reforms. “There could also be a delay in the private corporate capex recovery due to weaker business confidence caused by the surprise political outcome,” opines UBS. Rural economy on backfoot Even as the broader economy’s growth has been on track — GDP is expected to grow at 7.6% as per government forecasts — the rural economy has been on a backfoot. Based on FMCG companies’ quarterly earnings, rural market recovery has remained elusive for most of the financial year, barring a few short-lived upticks. Apart from tepid rural wage growth and the government's supply-side measures to contain inflation, rural demand was also impacted by weather-related uncertainty, including the subpar rainfall last year due to El Niño conditions. “However, the Modi government did not announce any substantial pro-rural populist schemes in the run-up to the 2024 elections to entice voters. Instead, the government focused on inclusive growth (partly to cover pandemic shock) with expenditure on rural-focused schemes (including drinking water, employment support, housing and rural roads) up 16% CAGR over FY19-24,” said UBS. Women-centric approach Moreover, the BJP-led government has been focussing on women with policies centred around them, since 2023. This could be also due to the rising percentage of women in the electorate. Particularly, in the 2019 election, female voter turnout was higher than that of males. India has around 970 million people who are above 18 years of age and eligible to vote. Based on the 2019 election turnaround, it’s expected to have 317 million women voters and 340 million men voters in the 2024 election. “The growing inclination of political parties to offer targeted welfare benefits to women (cash support, free bus travel, cooking gas subsidies, women-centric legislation amongst others) is closely linked to the rising percentage of women participating in the electoral process over the years,” says the UBS report. The <keyword id="19895876" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election-commission-of-india" source="keywords">Election Commission of India</keyword> has recently announced that the 2024 general election will be held in seven phases between 19 April and 1 June. The counting of votes will be held on June 4.

Political continuity could bode well for clean energy & infra spending: UBS

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Turkey's President's AK Party lost major local elections in Istanbul and Ankara.</li><li>The election results might impact Turkey's relationship with Russia.</li></ul>The Turkish party led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan suffered big losses in local elections held on Sunday.Ekrem Imamoğlu, the incumbent from main opposition party CHP, led the mayoral race in Istanbul by nearly 10 percentage points after more than half the votes had been counted, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/erdogan-battles-key-rival-turkeys-local-elections-2024-03-31/">Reuters</a> reported early on Monday. CHP also retained its mayoral seat in Ankara and gained another 15 seats in cities across the country.Erdoğan conceded defeat for the AK Party, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20240331-all-eyes-on-istanbul-as-turkey-goes-to-local-polls-in-test-of-erdogan-s-popularity">AFP</a> reported.The opposition's win is a blow to Erdoğan, who has been in power as Turkey's prime minister or president since 2003. Since he is also a close partner of Russian President Vladimir Putin — even though Turkey is a NATO member — the defeat of Erdoğan's party could change the two countries' relationship.<h2>What Erdoğan's party's defeat means for Putin and Russia</h2>If Erdoğan's AK Party had won resoundingly, the victory would be used in Ankara to "justify a close relationship with Russia in the eyes of the Turkish public," Marc Pierieni and Francesco Siccardi, researchers at think tank <a target="_blank" href="https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/92051">Carnegie Europe,</a> wrote last week."For Turkey's Western partners, this affinity is a cause for concern," they added.But an opposition victory in the majority of the largest Turkish cities would have "a dampening effect on President Erdoğan's prestige at home," they wrote.The Carnegie analysts did not specify how this could change Turkey's international relationships, but said Ankara's position after the local election could change its relationship with the West and Russia."The extent to which President Erdoğan can exercise his personal power at home will be a crucial factor that determines Turkey's international behavior," they added.Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Turkey has been positioning itself as an intermediary between the West and Moscow — brokering <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-makes-sudden-decision-to-reverse-ukraine-grain-deal-suspension-2022-11">grain export deals</a> between Russia and Ukraine and offering to host <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-stress-ukraine-support-during-zelenskiy-visit-turkish-source-says-2024-03-08/">peace talks </a>between the two sides.At the same time, Erdoğan's administration has been talking to Moscow about setting up a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/turkey-erdogan-russia-putin-develop-gas-hub-europe-energy-crisis-2022-10">gas hub in Turkey</a> as Europe weans itself off natural-gas imports from Russia.To be sure, the elections on Sunday were local — Erdoğan already won the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/turkey-president-erdogan-wins-reelection-after-dissidents-blocked-on-twitter-2023-5">presidential election</a> in May, securing another term for five years. While the AK Party's losses in local elections on Sunday point to changes in the country, <a target="_blank" href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91571">the political shift doesn't mean Turkey will give up</a> its ties with Russia — especially since the Turkish economy has been in a years-long crisis.<h2>Turkey's ongoing economic crisis</h2>Erdoğan's administration has been battling runaway inflation for years, prompting the central bank to hike interest rates relentlessly. The Turkish lira has also lost 40% of its value against the US dollar in the past 12 months.Inflation has gotten so bad — it was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-inflation-rises-67-keeping-pressure-cenbank-2024-03-04/#:~:text=ISTANBUL%2C%20March%204%20(Reuters),official%20data%20showed%20on%20Monday.">67% in February</a> — that the central bank hiked interest rates to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/turkey-hikes-key-rate-500-points-50-surprise-move-2024-03-21/">50%</a> on March 21, stunning the markets."The economy was the decisive factor," Hakan Akbas, a senior adviser at the advisory firm Albright Stonebridge Group, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/erdogan-battles-key-rival-turkeys-local-elections-2024-03-31/">Reuters</a> on Sunday. "Turkish people demanded change and Imamoğlu is now the default nemesis to President Erdogan."In a speech at AK Party's headquarters on Sunday, Erdogan pledged to "respect the decision of the nation," according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20240331-all-eyes-on-istanbul-as-turkey-goes-to-local-polls-in-test-of-erdogan-s-popularity">AFP.</a> "We will avoid being stubborn, acting against the national will and questioning the power of the nation," he added.

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