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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Benjamin Chadwick — a dual citizen of France and the UK — voted in two national elections this year.</li><li>He writes that in both nations, there's been a shift away from moderate politics toward extremes.</li></ul>I was born and raised in England, but this June marked 10 years since I moved to Paris.I came to France on a student exchange in 2012 and met my now partner. We moved to Paris together in 2014. When the British people voted to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/eu-referendum-reasons-and-analysis-on-a-brexit-vote-2016-6">leave the European Union</a> in 2016, I decided I wanted to live in France long-term.I planned to apply for French citizenship as soon as I could. I didn't know exactly how the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-and-boris-johnson-explained-2019-9">Brexit vote</a> would impact me at the time, but I wanted to secure my right to vote in French elections or perhaps move elsewhere in the EU later in life.It took me another three years to meet the residency requirements for citizenship. In the meantime, I began paying closer attention to politics in France. As I wasn't yet a citizen, I couldn't vote in 2017's presidential election, leaving me feeling powerless. But I was relieved about the result.For much of its history, French politics has been dominated by two parties, representing the left and right. But in 2017, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39130072">neither historic party made it to the second round</a>. Emmanuel Macron <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/03/emmanuel-macron-french-presidential-candidate-grassroots-movement">ran with a centrist campaign</a>, while Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, campaigned on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/04/french-presidential-election-how-the-candidates-compare">anti-immigration and nationalist ideals</a>. Her brand of populism had succeeded in the previous year with Trump's election — but failed in France, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/emmanuel-macron-wins-french-presidential-election-in-landslide-marine-le-pen-2017-5">Macron defeated her</a>, becoming France's President.By the time the 2024 elections came around in France and the UK, I was a citizen of both countries and eager to exercise my vote. In the UK, I wanted to remove the unpopular governing party, the Conservatives, from office. In France, I wanted to keep Le Pen's party out.In recent years, I've watched moderate ideals lose out to reactionary politics again and again, from Trump to Brexit to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/mapped-europe-far-right-government-power-politics-eu-italy-finalnd-hungary-parties-elections-polling/">success of hard-right parties in Europe</a> and elsewhere. Britain looked to be moving in the opposite direction with a projected victory for the center-left Labour Party, which made me feel optimistic, but France looked to be heading into reactionary territory.Political disagreements are a normal part of any healthy democracy. But increasingly, these disagreements are about our fundamental values and even the nature of truth itself. With a big election still to come this year in the US, I'm concerned about this move toward the extremes.<h2 id="86ebff10-5fe7-40c0-8b40-c666fa355f56">Politics in France and the UK has been turbulent in recent years</h2>My first national French elections as a voter were in 2022 when the National Rally continued its seemingly unstoppable rise — Le Pen came <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/french-presidential-election-results-2022-macron-wins-rcna25555">closer than ever</a> to the French presidency.Le Pen became leader of France's right-wing populist "National Front" party in 2011 and renamed it "National Rally" in 2018. Despite the rebrand, the party continues to focus on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.france24.com/en/france/20240620-how-france-s-far-right-changed-the-debate-on-immigration">drastically reducing migration</a>. France has seen major social unrest in recent years, including protests against <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/08/nuit-debout-protesters-occupy-french-cities-in-a-revolutionary-call-for-change">labor</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50971439">pension</a> reforms, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.france24.com/en/20191116-a-year-of-insurgency-how-yellow-vests-left-indelible-mark-on-french-politics">rising fuel costs, and the cost of living</a>. Le Pen has capitalized on a mistrust of mainstream politics, gaining popularity in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/21/counryside-marine-le-pen-forgotten-france-presidential-election-2017">rural</a> areas where some of these <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/21/how-hi-vis-yellow-vest-became-symbol-of-protest-beyond-france-gilets-jaunes">protest movements</a> have been popular.Across the Channel, the political landscape was no less chaotic. The Brexit vote was a seismic shock, and a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-brexit-deal-startups-limbo-financial-services-data-2020-12">deal with the EU</a> was only reached years later after Boris Johnson, whom Donald Trump rather unflatteringly labeled "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/23/trump-boris-johnson-britain-trump-uk-prime-minister">Britain Trump</a>," came to power in 2019.Johnson's center-right Conservative party had been in power since 2010 and remained so until the July 2024 election. Revelations of<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/partygate-sue-gray-report-details-2022-5"> lockdown-era parties</a> in Johnson's offices forced his resignation in 2022, and life for many Britons kept getting worse under his successors, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak.As in many other countries, wages were failing to keep up with a sharp rise in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-of-living-crisis-uk-people-turn-to-tiktok-2022-11">cost of living</a>. Years of budget cuts meant public services were <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/30/uk-public-services-policy-institute-for-government-report">crumbling</a>. Yet despite bold promises, I feel the government <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/65647308">failed to address</a> this and seemed more eager to stoke hatred <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/08/stop-the-boats-sunaks-anti-asylum-slogan-echoes-australia-harsh-policy">against migrants</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68229785">other minorities</a>.One of Rishi Sunak's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64164339">often repeated pledges</a>, both while in office and campaigning for the 2024 election, was his mission to "stop the boats," referencing the illegal immigrants arriving in Britain via small-craft vessels.Back in France, Macron still held the presidency. He initially ran on a centrist platform in 2017, aiming to find <a target="_blank" href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/emmanuel-macrons-la-republique-en-marche-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-french-presidents-groundbreaking-new-party-ahead-of-the-elections-a3563256.html">common ground</a> between the left and right blocs. However, during his seven years in office, he's been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2024/01/12/new-french-cabinet-reflects-macron-s-electorate-shift-to-the-right_6426251_5.html">accused of</a> veering to the right, appointing ministers who deny police <a target="_blank" href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/10/14/french-ministers-denial-police-abuses-against-migrants-flies-face-facts">brutality</a> toward migrants, and positioning himself <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/france-war-on-woke-laboratoire-de-la-republique/">against "wokism."</a>On June 9, a historic <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/european-union-parliament-election-far-right-nationalist-parties-2024-6">European Parliament election</a> took place, with Le Pen's far-right National Rally netting a record 31.4% of French votes, more than twice as many as Macron's centrist alliance. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/le-pens-party-trounces-macrons-eu-vote-exit-polls-2024-06-09/">Claiming the country needed "clarification,"</a> Macron called for a national parliamentary election on June 30 and July 7. Even <a target="_blank" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2024/06/17/how-macron-threw-his-supporters-into-a-panic-by-calling-snap-elections_6675018_5.html">his own allies</a> didn't understand.In the lead-up to the UK election on July 4, opinion polls <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-election-final-mega-polls-predict-total-tory-annihilation-labour-win/">predicted</a> a huge majority for the center-left Labour Party. In France, I feared the National Rally would capitalize on their European victory and take control of the Assembly. As an immigrant, I didn't want to be ruled by a party that routinely demonizes migrants.<h2 id="59a6f7d6-73eb-4e8f-b47a-503a385d4dc3">The elections have made me concerned about extremism and division in both countries</h2>In the end, Labour did secure a historic majority in the UK, but only with a tiny increase in vote share. Meanwhile, Reform UK, a party led by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage that campaigned on "freezing" immigration, reneging on net zero climate goals, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-manifesto-you-dont-have-to/">banning "transgender ideology"</a> in schools, netted more than 14% of the vote. This made them the third-largest party in terms of vote share. I was concerned that so many people were willing to vote for such a reactionary party.On top of this, one of Labour's first challenges in power was to deal with widespread <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/arrests-violence-riots-uk-far-right-wing-protests-immigration-2024-8">anti-immigration riots</a> targeting people of color. The protests that spread across the UK this summer were brought about by online disinformation about a stabbing where three young girls were killed.In France, the National Rally failed to get the majority many feared. A "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2024/07/07/french-elections-far-right-s-rise-blocked-by-republican-front_6676995_5.html">republican front</a>", consisting of other parties joining together to counter the far-right threat, worked better than expected, making the National Rally the third-largest group in terms of seats. But they still wound up with a much bigger voice in parliament than before and were by far the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/france-left-wing-marine-le-pen-far-right-national-rally-jordan-bardella-seats-new-popular-front/">largest party in terms of vote share</a>.I feel that France and the UK are dealing with many of the same problems: political polarization, the scapegoating of migrants, and an increasing focus on culture wars.<h2 id="c3bc22d1-7f74-40d0-a217-dc97700fc623">I'm worried history will repeat itself when the US elections come around</h2>This summer's events on both sides of the Channel have shown that as people grow disillusioned with the status quo, the extremes are becoming increasingly attractive.The National Rally continues to progress. I fear this year's vote has merely delayed their arrival in government, rather than preventing it. In the UK, this summer's far-right riots show that even when progressives win at the ballot box, the extremes are never far away.European eyes are now looking across the Atlantic.Donald Trump has been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/27/magazine/trump-rallies-rhetoric.html">embracing conspiracy theories and referencing an "invasion" of migrants "conquering" the USA</a> in his 2024 campaign. His victory could have serious consequences for Americans, especially <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2024/trump-harris-abortion/">women</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/05/10/trump-promises-rollback-on-trans-rights-heres-what-hes-said/?sh=51549ef4dae0">minorities</a>.In Europe, observers like me are worried about what his leadership would mean for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-signal-us-stop-ukraine-election-russia-volodymyr-zelenskyy-vladimir-putin/">foreign policy</a> in today's turbulent world. Trump's victory would galvanize European politicians like Le Pen and Farage and their supporters. Populist politics may not have won their national elections, but the most powerful nation in the world and its leader are behind them, normalizing their rhetoric.But if he loses, I'm still anxious about what will happen next, given the January 6 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/five-things-we-learned-about-the-insurrection-in-2022-2023-1">capitol riots</a> in 2021.Kamala Harris has reenergized the presidential race and given hope to those who oppose Trump. But even if she wins, the deep divisions in American society won't go away — they haven't in the UK or France.

Voting in the UK and French elections taught me a concerning lesson that Americans should heed when heading to the polls

New Delhi [India], June 4 (ANI): The mammoth exercise to count votes polled for the Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 elections will begin at 8 am on Tuesday, with trends and results following shortly thereafter. Results of the <keyword id="6372146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Assembly-elections" source="Orion">Assembly elections</keyword> in Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh were held simultaneously with voting for the 543-member Lok Sabha. Results of 175 Assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh and 147 Assembly constituencies in Odisha and results of bypolls in 25 Assembly constituencies will also be declared today. Here're the LIVE results: <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Infographic"><cdata><![CDATA[]]></cdata></div> Strict security has been put in place for the smooth conduct of counting of votes for over 8,000 candidates in this general elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek a third consecutive term in government, while the Congress-led opposition aims to unseat them. Most <keyword id="43771" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="Orion">exit polls</keyword> have predicted a return of PM Modi to power, a development which will make him the first Prime Minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to secure a third successive term in power, Meanwhile, a delegation of Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc leaders met with the Election Commission of India urging it to ensure that postal ballots are counted and their results declared before the outcome of the EVMs is announced. Earlier, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar had said that a "very robust system" has been put in place. "There are around 10.5 lakh booths. Each booth will have 14 tables. There are observers and micro-observers. Nearly, 70-80 lakh people are involved in the process," he said. The national capital is all set to witness the battle. With tight security arrangements in place, Delhi is well-prepared to watch the results of the 2024 <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-Elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword>. Around 70 companies of the security forces will be deployed at all seven counting centres across the national capital as part of the elaborate security arrangements made by the Delhi Police for today. Delhi traffic police issued a fresh advisory ahead of the counting of votes scheduled for Tuesday, listing key roads where traffic restrictions and diversions will start from 5 am onwards to ensure smooth vehicular movement. Prime Minister Modi's hometown, Gujarat, is also preparing for the vote-counting day as security forces rehearse and perform drills for the effortless conduct of D-day. Exit polls have predicted the return of the BJP to power. Various exit polls have given the BJP more than 64 seats in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is poised for a hat-trick win in Lok Sabha polls with a massive majority. Exit polls were predicted on Saturday and indicated that the ruling party at the Centre would improve its performance in several states ruled by other parties. A few exit polls predicted that the BJP-led NDA could reach the goal of "400 paar" stated by BJP leaders in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls. The exit polls predicted that the ruling BJP-led NDA is poised to improve its performance over its 2019 record when it won 352 seats. Two polls predicted the BJP would also improve its numbers from the 303 seats it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2019 elections, NDA wrested 353 seats, of which the BJP won 303 alone. The Opposition's UPA got only 93 seats of which the Congress got 52. The Lok Sabha elections were conducted in seven phases- on April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1. The counting trends and results, as per data entered by RO/ARO for AC/PC will be available on the ECI website as well as on the Voter Helpline App, both iOS and Android Mobile Apps, according to the ECI. The Voter Helpline App can be downloaded from the Google Play Store or Apple Play Store. Users can use the available filter to find out the winning/leading or trailing candidate details, along with the constituency-wise or State-wise results from the Voter Helpline App. The local display of the trends and results by the CEOs/ROs/DEOs may also be done through the Digital Display Panels, it said.

Lok Sabha elections 2024 results: Mammoth vote-counting exercise set to begin at 8 am, amid high security

A staggering 93 per cent of the candidates who won the 2024 <keyword id="56978" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="Orion">Lok Sabha elections</keyword> are <keyword id="6366800" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="crorepatis" source="Orion">crorepatis</keyword>, up from 88 per cent in 2019, according to an analysis by poll rights body <keyword id="484381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Association-of-Democratic-Reforms" source="Orion">Association of Democratic Reforms</keyword> (<keyword id="45376" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ADR" source="Orion">ADR</keyword>). The top three wealthiest candidates are TDP's Chandra Sekhar Pemmasani from Andhra Pradesh's Guntur constituency with assets worth Rs 5,705 crore, BJP's Konda Vishweshwar Reddy from Telangana's Chevella with total assets amounting to Rs 4,568 crore and BJP's Naveen Jindal from Haryana's Kurukshetra with assets worth Rs 1,241 crore. Out of the 543 winning candidates, 504 are crorepatis, the analysis found. In 2019, 475 (88 per cent) winning candidates were crorepatis and 443 (82 per cent) in 2014. The trend indicates a steady climb since 2009 when only 315 (58 per cent) MPs were crorepatis. According to the analysis, 227 (95 per cent) of the BJP's 240 winning candidates, 92 (93 per cent) of the Congress' 99, 21 (95 per cent) of the DMK's 22, 27 (93 per cent) of the TMC's 29 and 34 (92 per cent) of the Samajwadi Party's 37 candidates have declared assets worth more than Rs 1 crore. All winning candidates of the AAP (3), the JDU (12) and the TDP (16) are crorepatis, ADR data showed. The analysis also delves into candidates' chances of winning based on their financial backgrounds. It found that the probability of a crorepati candidate clinching victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections stood at 19.6 per cent, compared to a meagre 0.7 per cent for candidates with assets less than a crore. The analysis also provides a breakdown of wealth distribution among the winning candidates. The data showed that 42 per cent of the candidates possess assets totalling Rs 10 crore and above. While 19 per cent of the candidates fall within the bracket of Rs 5 to 10 crore, 32 per cent hold assets ranging between Rs 1 and 5 crore. Only about 1 per cent of the winning candidates have assets worth less than Rs 20 lakh. Among major parties, the average assets per winning candidate vary significantly. The TDP leads with an average of Rs 442.26 crore per winner, followed by the BJP with Rs 50.04 crore, the DMK with Rs 31.22 crore, the Congress with Rs 22.93 crore, TMC with Rs 17.98 crore and SP with Rs 15.24 crore. The analysis also highlights disparities within the financial profiles of winning candidates. While some boast of substantial assets, others have relatively low worth. For instance, BJP's Jyotirmay Singh Mahato from West Bengal's Purulia has declared assets totalling a mere Rs 5 lakh. Similarly, TMC's Mitali Bag from West Bengal's Arambag holds assets worth Rs 7 lakh. Assets of SP's Priya Saroj from Uttar Pradesh's Machhlishahr are valued at Rs 11 lakh. In addition, the analysis identifies candidates with high liabilities. TDP's Pemmasani tops the list with liabilities exceeding Rs 1,038 crore. DMK's S Jagathratchakan from Tamil Nadu's Arakkonam has liabilities worth Rs 649 crore and TDP's Prabhakar Reddy Vemireddy from Andhra Pradesh's Nellore has liabilities worth Rs 197 crore.

93% of Lok Sabha 2024 poll winners are crorepatis: ADR analysis

The <keyword id="20288056" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP-led-NDA" source="keywords">BJP-led NDA</keyword> on Tuesday surged ahead with leads in more than 200 <keyword id="21073505" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="parliamentary-seats" source="keywords">parliamentary seats</keyword> out of 350 for which trends were available, with opposition <keyword id="19895684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="INDIA-bloc" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="INDIA bloc" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="INDIA bloc">INDIA bloc</keyword> ahead in 120, according to television reports. India Today gave leads in 205 seats to the NDA, while the INDIA bloc was ahead in 129; ABP News gave 230 to the NDA and 120 to the opposition alliance; and NDTV showed NDA leading in 194 seats with INDIA bloc closing in on 135 seats. Counting of votes for the <keyword id="56978" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="Orion">Lok Sabha elections</keyword> has begun across states and Union Territories, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar told PTI. According to the Conduct of Election Rules, postal ballots were taken up for counting first and the process of counting of votes recorded in electronic voting machines (EVMs) began 30 minutes later. The process of counting votes cast through postal ballots and EVMs will continue simultaneously. <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Infographic"><cdata><![CDATA[]]></cdata></div> While the Lok Sabha has 543 members, counting is being held for 542 seats after the BJP's Surat candidate Mukesh Dalal was elected unopposed. Counting of votes is also underway for the assembly polls in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, where polling was held simultaneously with the Lok Sabha elections. Elections to the assemblies of Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim were also held alongside the Lok Sabha polls. The results of these elections were declared on June 2. Since 2019, VVPAT (voter verifiable paper audit trail) slips from five randomly selected polling stations per assembly constituency -- or segment in case of Lok Sabha seats -- are matched with the EVM count for greater transparency.

Lok Sabha elections results: INDIA bloc leads in 120 seats in early trends; BJP-led NDA crosses 200 mark

New Delhi [India], June 4 (ANI): With counting progressing in <keyword id="19912155" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-polls" source="keywords">Lok Sabha polls</keyword>, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led <keyword id="20344628" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="National-Democratic-Alliance" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="National Democratic Alliance" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="National Democratic Alliance">National Democratic Alliance</keyword> is leading on more than 100 seats as per the latest trends according to TV channels. Around 642 million people voted in Lok Sabha elections held over seven phases in a mammoth six-week period. The counting of votes began starting with postal ballot papers amid tight security. The counting for State Legislative Assemblies of 175 Assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh and 147 Assembly constituencies in Odisha and results of bypolls in 25 Assembly constituencies also began. The Lok Sabha elections for 543 seats of the lower house were held across seven phases. The <keyword id="19931558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bharatiya-Janata-Party" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bharatiya Janata Party" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bharatiya Janata Party">Bharatiya Janata Party</keyword> is eyeing a third straight term in power, while the Opposition under the umbrella of the <keyword id="19895684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="INDIA-bloc" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="INDIA bloc" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="INDIA bloc">INDIA bloc</keyword> is seeking to wrest power from the ruling party.Most exit polls predicted a straight term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with quite few of them projecting a two-thirds majority for the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (<keyword id="41281" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDA" source="Orion">NDA</keyword>). The Congress party and its allies dismissed the exit polls as "orchestrated" and a work of "fantasy", asserting that the opposition INDIA bloc will form the next government at the Centre. Strict security has been put in place for the smooth conduct of counting of votes for over 8,000 candidates in this general election. With counting began for the Lok Sabha elections, which have seen the largest voter participation, the electoral fate of several leaders across the political spectrum will be decided. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh are among the senior BJP leaders in the fray. Key opposition leaders, including former Congress chief Rahul Gandhi, NCP's Supriya Sule, and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, are also contesting the poll. Two polls predicted the BJP would also improve its numbers from the 303 seats it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2019 elections, NDA wrested 353 seats, of which the BJP won 303 alone. The Opposition's UPA got only 93 seats of which the Congress got 52. Even before the counting of the votes, the Bharatiya Janata Party won one seat of Surat Lok Sabha. Earlier on April 22, Mukesh Dalal won the election "unopposed". Congress nominee Nilesh Kumbhani's nomination was rejected. His candidacy was rejected because of alleged discrepancies in the signatures of the proposers.

Lok Sabha election results: BJP-led NDA leading in 100 plus seats in early trends

The votes are in, the election commission is armed, and tallies are finally being made. As lakhs of viewers tune into their news to update themselves, many are coming away shocked at the current standings. Despite confident promises of capturing 400 of the 543 Indian seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (<keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP" source="keywords">BJP</keyword>) has barely won a dozen or two seats more than the halfway mark of 272, as per the initial few rounds of counting. This is still an impressive position to be in, and certainly enough to help the BJP-led <keyword id="105903" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="national-democratic-alliance" source="Orion">National Democratic Alliance</keyword> (<keyword id="19938590" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDA" source="keywords">NDA</keyword>) make another term. However, the overwhelming, yet lukewarm, support has inadvertently deflated the ‘Abki baar 400 paar’ chant echoed by the party throughout its campaigning. Further, this comes mere days after Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath called the slogan the ‘common man’s mantra’. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Exit polls gone wrong" comment="subhead" text="Exit polls gone wrong"><keyword id="21129157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="keywords">Exit polls</keyword> gone wrong</cmsannotation> Party conjecture aside, most exit polls had also predicted a landslide victory for the NDA, with some even predicting the party crossing the 400 marks, helping the alliance comfortably bring in a third term for current Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword>. However, Congress leaders staunchly dismissed these findings, asserting that the <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">INDIA</keyword> alliance will achieve at least over 250 seats this election. While exit polls have exercised a notoriously patchy reputation for delivering inaccurate findings in the past, the surveys might have gotten it wrong far more than usual this time around. For instance, the BJP has been predicted to win 400 seats by News 24-Today’s Chanakya poll, 358 as per Times Now-ETG, 392 per India V-CNX. <table class="redcator-table-advance" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; box-shadow: none; width: 955.049px; font-family: Merriweather; padding-bottom: 10px !important; background-image: inherit !important; background-position: inherit !important; background-size: inherit !important; background-repeat: inherit !important; background-attachment: inherit !important; background-origin: inherit !important; background-clip: inherit !important;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;"> </td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">NDA</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">INDIA</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Others</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Times Now - ETG </td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">358</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">152</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">33</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Matrize - Republic</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">361</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">126</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">56</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Jan Ki Baat - NDTV </td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">377</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">151</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">15</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">PMARQ - Republic</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">359</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">154</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">30</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">India News - D-Dynamics</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">371</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">125</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">47</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Today's Chanakya - News24</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">400</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">107</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">36</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">India TV</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">386</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">124</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">33</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Poll of polls</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">369</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">143</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">31</td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table> However, the Modi-led alliance has yet to cross the 300 mark. If this trend holds, a majority government will form with BJP-led NDA acquiring slightly below 300 seats, almost mirroring exact forecasts by on-ground reporters and some political experts. However, this is quite in contrast with almost all exit polls this election season. If the scorecard settles at the current mark, this will end up becoming the poorest performance for NDA since their historic win in 2014. The alliance came to power after winning an overwhelming 336 seats in 2014, and 353 seats in 2019. However, the main point of shock has come from the performance of Congress and the INDIA bloc, who have maintained a steadfast 200+ seats since the initial polling rounds. Out of the nine odd exit polls that came out with results recently, none had predicted the INDIA bloc to win over 150-170 seats. As the tallying moves into its final phases, let’s look at how exit polls performed in the previous election cycles. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="2014 elections" comment="subhead" text="2014 elections">2014 elections</cmsannotation> In 2014, 834 million voters participated in the largest-ever elections worldwide — only to be surpassed by the 2019 <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> elections. An average of eight exit polls had indicated that the BJP would see a 283-seat victory, while the opposition would have had to settle for 105 seats. Just as predicted, the BJP saw a landslide victory and swooped in 282 of the 543 seats, with a vote percentage of 31.3%. This win was a huge blow to the INC, which only won 44 seats compared to the 206 in 2009. Since a party must win at least 55 seats to become an official opposition party in India, the Congress’s defeat meant that there was no official opposition party for India. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="2019 elections" comment="subhead" text="2019 elections">2019 elections</cmsannotation> The previous Lok Sabha elections turned out to be an even bigger win for the BJP! In 2019, exit polls had predicted that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would peak at 306 and that the INC-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) would win just 120. However, the post-poll statistics turned out to be underwhelming. The BJP won a whopping 37.36% of the vote — the highest by a political party since the 1989 general elections. It won 303 seats, while the NDA collectively won 352 seats. It was another crushing defeat for the Congress, which won just 52 seats, failing to claim the post of Leader of the Opposition once again.

Trends indicate INDIA maintaining 200+ seats, defying all exit poll predictions; how accurate have these surveys been since 2014?

If you open X or TikTok right now, you might be convinced that Vice President<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/business-leaders-that-kamala-harris-could-recruit-for-cabinet-2024-10"> Kamala Harris</a> is going to win the presidential election in a landslide. Donald Trump's lead is disappearing, even in red states, people say, pointing to fringe polls and purported quotes from campaign insiders. Florida and Texas are turning blue. More women and young people have registered to vote. And some believe the stars are aligning and astrological clues point to her definitive ascendence to the top job.Or, depending on what your feed looks like, you might see that Trump has this one in the bag. These believers cite a flood of MAGA hats in California, or a phalanx of children dressed as Trump (and, disturbingly, Trump's would-be assassin) for Halloween in blue Philadelphia. Or that there's less support for Harris among some demographics in swing states compared to when President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-biden-maga-supporters-puerto-rico-election-2024-10">Joe Biden</a> won in 2020. New Hampshire and Virginia are turning red. Even X owner and Trump megadonor Elon Musk is extrapolating and framing early voting data to prematurely declare the prized swing state of Pennsylvania "will be a decisive Republican victory."In an election cycle where national and swing-state polls have been neck and neck for weeks, voters are taking to X and TikTok to confidently declare their candidate will win decisively. It's a response to a time of extreme anxiety and uncertainty, when Americans are more polarized than ever and have been told "this will be the last election" if their candidate does not win. There are maps covered in blue and opposing ones covered in red, with Electoral College predictions swaying wildly. "Harris is about to win in a blowout," one says. Others, Musk included, point to an electoral map based on Polymarket election-betting odds, rather than polls, as evidence that Trump will win. Each individual post might not be so significant — if it weren't for powerful algorithms on TikTok and X that relentlessly push such posts out to others.This is the type of content that social sites' algorithms have long loved. Social-media conversations gather around extremes. People at the farthest ends of the ideological spectrum are most likely to post their views on social media, a 2021 study from the Pew Research Center found. Social platforms' algorithms reward "this strong confidence and extreme opinions and engenders extreme reactions," says Ioana Literat, an associate professor at Columbia University's Teachers College and the coauthor of "Not Your Parents' Politics: Understanding Young People's Political Expression on Social Media." "If there's a video that says, 'Polls are too close to tell,' that's not going to be the post that gets the most likes."While the algorithms are in part to blame, we also have a deeply human aversion to uncertainty. To quiet the noise, we surround ourselves with others who feel confident that our shared candidate will win.Other social platforms have sought to disentangle themselves from this kind of divisive political speech. In 2016, much brazen political dialogue took place on Facebook, where your opinionated uncle posted misinformation with abandon. For the past few years, Meta has pushed news out of Facebook feeds. And earlier this year, the company made further moves to de-emphasize political content on Instagram, Facebook, and Threads. All of this follows accusations that Facebook basically "destroyed democracy," as Megan Smith, the former chief technology officer of the United States, put it. Despite the efforts to change, deceptive political ads are still widespread on Facebook and Instagram, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.propublica.org/article/facebook-instagram-meta-deceptive-political-ads-election">ProPublica reported</a> this week. Meta's "enforcement systems had already detected and disabled a large portion of the Pages — and we reviewed and took action against the remainder of these Pages for various policy violations," Tracy Clayton, a Meta spokesperson, said in a statement to ProPublica.Since the 2016 and 2020 elections, the political reach of both X and TikTok have grown. A recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/10/29/elon-musk-x-republican-democrat-twitter-election/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNzMwMTc0NDAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNzMxNTYwMzk5LCJpYXQiOjE3MzAxNzQ0MDAsImp0aSI6ImRjZjEzNDYxLTBlNjEtNGNhYy1hODE2LTMxNmIyZmRiNDcyMiIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS90ZWNobm9sb2d5LzIwMjQvMTAvMjkvZWxvbi1tdXNrLXgtcmVwdWJsaWNhbi1kZW1vY3JhdC10d2l0dGVyLWVsZWN0aW9uLyJ9._swxWtRAVNu7JUVWoRNfQo9uNEN8IbkWnVcw-C_22eg">Washington Post analysis</a> of X published this week found that Republican leaders are gaining followers and going viral more often since Musk took over the platform. A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/x-twitter-political-content-election-2024-28f2dadd">Wall Street Journal analysis</a> found that newly created X accounts were often fed political content, even if they signed up looking for other topics, and that content leaned more heavily toward pro-Trump sentiments. (X did not respond to a request to comment on this story.) Meanwhile, half of the 18- to 29-year-olds surveyed by the Pew Research Center saying they watch political content on TikTok. A TikTok spokesperson declined to comment for this story but directed me to a webpage that says TikTok's policy is to label "unverified election claims, make them ineligible for recommendation, and prompt people to reconsider before sharing them."The overconfident rhetoric isn't just polarizing; it could have more dangerous implications. "If one side is expecting the race to be a blowout and the other side wins, that sort of lays the groundwork for broad support for challenging the results," says Sol Messing, a research associate professor at New York University's Center for Social Media and Politics. (Messing previously worked for Twitter but says he volunteered to be laid off when Musk bought the platform in 2022, and he refused severance to avoid signing a non-disparagement agreement.) "Parts of this may reflect this broader, far-right strategy," he added.On X, there is now an Election Integrity Community, launched by Musk's America PAC in late October. Here, people are encouraged to "share potential incidents of voter fraud or irregularities you see while voting in the 2024 election" — sightings they would typically report to official government agencies for investigation. Many of the recent posts show clear support for Trump in their claims of voting fraud and interference: On Thursday, one user posted photos of what appeared to be Ohio voting ballots with Trump's name misprinted. Election officials, however, say they have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/31/ohio-election-officials-say-altered-trump-name-on-ballot-likely-a-hoax/75969483007/">not seen such ballots</a>.While Trump has repeatedly said that the only way he'd lose is through election fraud, many posts from candidates and their famous endorsers don't express the same swaggering confidence we see across feeds. Ads for Harris on Instagram implore people to get to the polls and donate more money, calling it "an all-hands-on-deck moment." Michelle Obama says the race "is too close," and "we have to give it everything we've got." And even Trump is back to posting on X, urging people to vote early — a shift from 2020, when he demonized mail-in voting.No one on social media has the answer to what will happen in Tuesday's election. Anxiously reposting or liking election content may feel like the only thing we can do as the clock ticks down. "We know it's a period of really high anxiety," says Literat. "This is definitely shaped by the context. But it's also that content that really offers certainty or that resonates with hope or with fears that's spread more rapidly, too." For now, the best way to alleviate that anxiety might be to get off social media until Tuesday passes.<a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/amanda-hoover">Amanda Hoover</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider covering the tech industry. She writes about the biggest tech companies and trends.

Twitter and TikTok users' election projections are completely warped. Here's why.

The counting of votes cast by 64.2 crore hopeful Indian voters during the six-week-long 18th <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword> officially began at 8 AM today and it is suffice to say that the air is crackling with equal parts excitement and trepidation. Over 700 aspiring parties participated in the world’s largest democratic exercise. But the main duelling parties remain consistent with previous trends: the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (<keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP" source="keywords">BJP</keyword>) led by Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> and the opposition bloc led by the <keyword id="19964138" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-National-Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Indian National Congress" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Indian National Congress">Indian National Congress</keyword> (INC). Modi is shooting for a third, historic win after spending the last ten years in office, but the road ahead does not seem as smooth as anticipated. A political party in India requires at least 272 seats to cross the majority mark in the 543-member lower house of the Indian parliament, the Lok Sabha. The PM has audaciously declared that he is expecting a huge win exceeding 400 seats, the slogan ab ki baar 400 paar is stuck in every Indian’s head — irrespective of their political inclination. The Congress-led India bloc, on the other hand, is aiming for a relatively modest 295. On Saturday, most exit poll surveys predicted 350-370 seats for the BJP and between 107-140 seats for the opposition. However, the early trends are showing a very different picture with the INDIA bloc exceeding expectations in many states. Polls have been off the mark a few times before, but as NDA looks poised to win a third term, albeit with a few last-minute struggles, here’s a look back at the previous elections responsible for Mr Narendra Modi’s unmatchable dominance over <keyword id="20184421" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-politics" source="keywords">Indian politics</keyword>. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Inside BJP’s decade-long winning streak" comment="subhead" text="Inside BJP’s decade-long winning streak">Inside BJP’s decade-long winning streak </cmsannotation>The BJP has come a long way since 1984 when the party won just two seats. Its pro-Hindutva stance pushed it to prominence over the decades, especially in the 1990s. The BJP was in power for a considerable amount of time under Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s leadership at the turn of the century. But the kind of support that Narendra Modi has received since 2014 has been unmatched in the history of modern Indian politics. In 2014, the BJP saw a surprising landslide victory with 282 of the 543 seats. But what factors contributed to its sweeping win with a 31.3% majority? Throughout its campaigning ahead of the general elections that year, the BJP kept stressing its interest in fixing the economy and combating corruption allegedly caused by the Congress party’s rather inept governing. Modi, who called himself a chowkidar or watchman, vowed to set the government and bureaucracy to rights. He promised more jobs for young Indians and even launched a social media campaign to appeal to the younger generation. Many experts suggested that Modi created the brand “NaMo'' for himself through relentless media campaigning, something that <keyword id="19895780" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rahul-gandhi" source="keywords">Rahul Gandhi</keyword> and other major political leaders could not do at the time. Additionally, he is also said to have had the support of the 45,000 country-wide RSS branches — the Hindu cultural nationalist parent of the BJP. However, after the leader had managed to comfortably settle into his new role as the Prime Minister of India, he announced the demonetisation of all ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes of the Mahatma Gandhi Series on 8 November 2016. As per a 2018 report from the Reserve Bank of India said that “the effort had failed to remove black money from the economy”. Modi was widely criticised for the way this move impacted the middle-class people of India. Despite this setback as well as criticism against his economic reforms like GST, he continued to implement bold policy changes to strengthen the core economy. His tilt towards a digital economy and seemingly tough actions against corrupt practices received widespread acclaim. He also successfully invoked a strong sense of nationalism and security in the people through the Balakot airstrike, a bombing raid conducted by Indian warplanes in February 2019. And it worked! BJP came to power again in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, this victory being bigger than the last. The BJP won a whopping 37.36% of the vote — the highest by a political party since the 1989 general elections with 303 seats. However, similar to 2019, towards the end of his second term in 2024, joblessness appears to be on the rise and incomes of farmers continue to plummet. Amid major issues like food inflation and the threat of AI to the job market, the ruling party relied on not-so-subtle religious polarisation and a ton of welfare programmes. From being chowkidar in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been depicted to be a saint today by many of his followers. While past leaders in India have tried to hold on to their secular image, Mr Modi has been seen flouting this convention on multiple occasions, expressing that he takes pride in his religion. With crores of followers still supporting him, the PM seems to be already on a path to victory. Only time will tell if the struggles during the last phases of this year’s election will come back to haunt him. In the meantime, stay tuned to Business Insider India for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/elections/lok-sabha-election-results-2024-live-counting-begins-at-8-am-as-bjp-led-nda-hopes-for-a-historic-third-term/articleshow/110685785.cms">more updates on the Lok Sabha elections 2024</a>.

As PM Modi awaits his third big win, here’s how BJP created history during the 2014 & 2019 Lok Sabha elections

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Market analysts predicted choppy trading and sharp swings going into the US presidential election.</li><li>Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race, fueling uncertainty among traders.</li></ul>Market analysts are braced for volatility ahead of Tuesday's presidential election as traders <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-trump-trade-stock-market-bonds-commodities-tariffs-fed-2024-7">shuffled their bets</a> on a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris victory.The Republican and Democratic candidates are neck and neck in many polls,<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-election-predictions-professional-investor-survey-2024-11"> fueling uncertainty</a> in the finance world over who'll emerge triumphant, and clouding the outlook for everything from tax and trade policy to corporate regulation and geopolitics.One analyst underscored the<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-djt-bitcoin-harris-election-odds-betting-kalshi-polymarket-2024-11"> critical importance</a> of the election in research notes on Monday, while another touted economic fundamentals as more important to markets and predicted long-term investors would likely win over time. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">cut interest rates</a> by 25 basis points on Thursday, while China's central bank is set to unveil some form of economic stimulus measures later this week. Here's a roundup of analysts' comments:<h2 id="b051a4d3-ca66-47f5-83ad-6b65851acac1">Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets</h2>"US and European stock futures are trading flat as traders continue to focus on one thing and one thing alone, and that is the US elections. Basically, there is nothing else that matters; it is not going to be earnings that would move things in the markets, and it won't be the US jobs noisy number that would make traders think about the US economy. The only thing that is going to keep them occupied is the US election and who will become the next president of the most powerful country in the world."<h2 id="f123d804-bdf0-46b3-b1b2-46b4a53ef227">Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets</h2>"A shift in the polls seen over the weekend signal the potential for a Harris victory in Iowa; with a surge in the older female demographic signaling a shift that many believe could carry Harris to victory. Coming at a time when markets appeared to have taken a Trump victory as a given, the polls are a timely reminder that betting markets may not be the best indication of who will become the President of the United States."The election looks significantly more of a contest than many had been expecting, which could provide a more protracted and volatile period ahead as we see potential recounts and challenges to potentially drag out this process."<h2 id="4192d8db-abfb-4db3-8486-f24c3eb9af7b">Principal Asset Management</h2>"Despite short-term volatility, historical trends reveal that equities have consistently posted strong gains by the end of a presidential term, underscoring the benefits of maintaining a long-term investment perspective. The drivers of market performance — economic growth, corporate earnings, and innovation — ultimately outshine the impact of political changes."Investors should take caution. Those who allow their political opinions to cloud their investing decisions could miss out on the potential rewards that come with staying invested in the market over the long-term."<h2 id="5a32ad08-8e3d-45d5-a08a-4420d2d2de45">Hal Cook, senior investment analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown</h2>"With the election being an effective coin toss, betting on a specific outcome doesn't seem sensible. Instead, remember that diversification is your friend."<h2 id="989e296a-dd0f-43f5-90c6-c0bd1cc6ef19">Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB</h2>"The main US blue-chip index is up 20% year-to-date, which does not suggest that the market is seriously pricing in the risk of civic violence after this election, which could rock financial markets and cause a global wave of risk aversion."An interesting development leading up to this election is that financial markets expect Trump to win, and the Trump trade has performed well in recent weeks, as you can see in the chart below. The Trump trade is a stronger dollar, weaker bonds/ higher bond yields and stronger crypto. With one day left of this campaign, the dollar is falling, and the dollar index is at a two-week low. Thus, if Harris does win on Tuesday we could see a rapid unwinding of this trade, a sharp weakening of the dollar and intense volatility in the FX and bond market."We expect Monday and Tuesday to be quiet for markets, however, once we get the first drip feed of results on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, expect fireworks."

Prepare for market volatility but don't panic trade, analysts say ahead of Election Day  

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Harris leading Trump by 3 points in the state.</li><li>It's a significant shift in a conservative-leaning state that Trump won by eight points in 2020.</li></ul>A new <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-iowa-poll-standing-harris-presidential-election-2024-9">Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll</a> published on Saturday showed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by three points in Iowa, a massive development in a state once <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-iowa-poll-standing-harris-presidential-election-2024-9">seen as a lock</a> for the former president.The Iowa poll — which is viewed as the gold standard of polling in the state and was conducted by the firm Selzer &amp; Co. — showed Harris ahead of Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.Political experts told Business Insider that the Iowa poll is significant for the Harris campaign given that the demographic makeup of Iowa — rural, older, and largely white voters — is similar to some <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-swing-states-election-2024-10">key swing states</a>."What makes Iowa a good conduit for states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, is because they're demographically very similar," John Conway, director of strategy for Republicans Voters Against Trump, said. He said all those states have a large share of white voters.Christian Grose, a professor of political science at the University of Southern California, also said the results bode well for Harris in other states. "This is probably good news for Harris in Wisconsin, Michigan, and elsewhere. If Harris is competitive in Iowa, combined with recent polling showing Trump with single-digit leads in Kansas and other red places, it bodes well for Harris."He added: "It's one poll, so normally, I wouldn't read too much into one poll, but this is a pollster who's pretty good and has been working in Iowa for a long time."The pollster — J. Ann Selzer — has had particular success predicting the Iowa caucuses, he added.Selzer founded Selzer &amp; Co. in 1996. She <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/selzer/">conducts polling</a> for private companies and public opinion surveys but Iowa politics remains her greatest strength, FiveThirtyEight reported in 2016.A representative for Selzer &amp; Co. did not respond to a request for comment.Patricia Crouse, adjunct professor of political science at the University of New Haven, said the Iowa poll is just one data point that shouldn't be used to predict the actual outcome, but that it's still a significant development for Harris considering Trump won the Hawkeye State in 2020 by eight points over now-President Joe Biden."I think we have to be very, very careful about how we're using polls in terms of predicting the outcome of this election, but I do think that even if it's just a moment in time — this poll that was just done — I still think it's significant that Harris is leading," she said. "Even if they were tied in Iowa, I think that's significant."<div type="image" title="Former President Donald Trump in Iowa." height="2636" width="3955" msid="114918467" hostid="261" sizebytes="223688"></div>Crouse said that Iowa's demographic is predominantly white and consists of an older generation of voters who typically skew Republican. That Harris might be gaining in a state like Iowa may signal that a different set of voters, including women and younger voters, are being underrepresented in polling."If Iowa flips to Harris, then it's possible that some of these swing states are being underestimated in their polls in terms of favorability for her," she said.<h2 id="ed1b80b8-1545-4cb3-b5aa-ee6ed22c4c35">Iowa's political shift has been dramatic</h2>A poll showing a Democratic presidential nominee with a lead in Iowa would not have caused such a stir in the past, given its longtime political competitiveness.In 2000, then-Vice President Al Gore won the state by less than a point over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush. Bush flipped the state to the GOP in his 2004 presidential reelection bid, winning it by a razor-thin 0.67% margin.Iowa later played a key role in the launch of Barack Obama's presidency. In 2008, Obama won the state's Democratic caucus, which propelled his candidacy through the primary race. He went on to win the state easily that year and in his 2012 reelection bid.But the state has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iowa-democrats-struggling-ascendant-gop-2024-presidential-race-trump-biden-2023-8">tilted toward the GOP</a> in recent years.Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the state in the 2016 presidential election. Republican Joni Ernst was first elected to the US Senate in 2014 and continues to hold her seat. And the state legislature is dominated by conservative Republicans.But some cracks are starting to show in the GOP's armor.The Republican-controlled legislature passed a six-week abortion ban that went into effect in July and has proven to be unpopular with Iowans, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/22/most-iowans-support-legal-abortion-oppose-iowas-six-week-ban-new-iowa-poll-shows-fetal-heartbeat-law/75180451007/">according to polling</a> conducted by Selzer &amp; Co. in September.In the survey, 59% of Iowa adults opposed the new abortion law, while only 37% of Iowa adults approved of it. And notably, 69% of female respondents in the Selzer poll opposed the law, while only 27% of Iowa women backed the new restrictions.The law also appears to have taken a toll on the approval ratings of Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds.In the Selzer poll taken in September, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/24/rob-sand-tops-kim-reynolds-brenna-bird-iowa-elected-officials-governors-support-slips-lowest/75196313007/">Reynolds' job approval rating</a> sat at 45%, while 50% of Iowans disapproved of her performance. Since becoming governor in 2017, Reynolds has generally been one of the state's most popular politicians, which makes her most recent approval rating all the more striking.

Kamala Harris' new lead in top Iowa poll could bode well for her in some key swing states

New Delhi, The <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Election-Commission" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Election Commission" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Election Commission">Election Commission</keyword> on Friday said it has identified 266 <keyword id="20809469" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="parliamentary-constituencies" source="keywords">parliamentary constituencies</keyword>, including 215 in rural areas, with <keyword id="21207154" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="low-voter-turnout" source="keywords">low voter turnout</keyword> and is planning <keyword id="21207534" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="targeted-intervention" source="keywords">targeted intervention</keyword> to enhance <keyword id="19973117" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="voting-percentage" source="keywords">voting percentage</keyword> in the upcoming <keyword id="19912155" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-polls" source="keywords">Lok Sabha polls</keyword>. Municipal commissioners from major cities and select district election officers from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh discussed enhancing voter engagement and participation in identified urban and rural Lok Sabha seats. At its conference on low <keyword id="20108198" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="voter-turnout" source="keywords">voter turnout</keyword> here, the EC said 266 parliamentary constituencies -- 215 rural and 51 urban -- with low voter turnout have been identified. Eleven states and Union territories - Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Telangana, Gujarat, Punjab, Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand - had a voter turnout lower than the national average of 67.40 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Addressing the participants, <keyword id="19998985" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chief-Election-Commissioner" source="keywords">Chief Election Commissioner</keyword> Rajiv Kumar stressed that 'one size fits all' approach will not work and different strategies have to be worked out for different areas and segments. Polling for the seven-phased Lok Sabha polls begins on April 19. Kumar emphasised on a three-pronged strategy of providing facilitation at polling stations, such as queue management, sheltered parking in congested areas; targeted outreach and communication; and involvement of critical stakeholders including RWAs, local icons and youth influencers to persuade people to come to polling stations on voting day. He told officials to prepare a booth-wise action plan for enhanced participation and behaviour change. He asked the participants to prepare different strategies for urban and rural areas and plan interventions accordingly for different target audiences. Discussions were centred on critical issues such as optimising queue management at polling stations and facilitating voting in high-rise buildings. Urban specific hurdles to increased voter turnout were identified and targeted city-specific interventions were planned. The officers were encouraged to develop tailored, region-specific outreach programs that resonate with the unique needs and demographics of their constituencies. The Commission recalled that nearly 29.7 crore eligible voters did not vote in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections "underscoring the scale of the problem which calls for proactive measures". In the last Lok Sabha elections, of the 50 seats with the lowest voter turnout, 17 were in metropolitans or major cities. It said recent elections across various states have highlighted trends of urban apathy towards the electoral process, warranting targeted interventions and collaborative endeavours.

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