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In response to requests from multiple political parties, the <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election-commission" source="keywords">Election Commission</keyword> (EC) has decided to postpone upcoming by-elections in <keyword id="19894922" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="uttar-pradesh" source="keywords">Uttar Pradesh</keyword>, Kerala, and Punjab. Originally scheduled for November 13, the polls will now take place on November 20. This rescheduling aims to accommodate local festivities and boost voter turnout. The EC’s decision follows appeals from parties like the <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="congress" source="keywords">Congress</keyword> (INC), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and <keyword id="19984283" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rashtriya-lok-dal" source="keywords">Rashtriya Lok Dal</keyword> (RLD), which expressed concerns over potential low turnout due to regional celebrations during the original polling date. The Congress highlighted that in Kerala's 56-Palakkad Assembly Constituency, many residents will participate in the Kalpathi Ratholsavam festival, a major event set to run from November 13 to 15. Similarly, representatives from the BJP, BSP, and RLD raised concerns in Uttar Pradesh, where people begin travelling several days in advance for <keyword id="22124352" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kartik-purnima" source="keywords">Kartik Purnima</keyword>, an important festival observed in the state. In Punjab, the Congress pointed out that celebrations for the 555th Prakash Parv of Sri Guru Nanak Dev Ji are scheduled for November 15, with religious observances starting on November 13. These festivals are expected to draw significant portions of the electorate, particularly in rural areas. The EC has previously demonstrated flexibility to prioritise voter participation by adjusting poll dates to avoid clashes with religious or cultural events. In recent years, polling dates were modified for various elections, including the <keyword id="23790298" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="punjab-state-elections" source="keywords">Punjab State Elections</keyword> 2022 during the Shri Guru Ravidas Jayanti, and the <keyword id="23790297" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="uttar-pradesh-assembly-elections" source="keywords">Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections</keyword> 2012 for <keyword id="23790296" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="barawafat" source="keywords">Barawafat</keyword>. Similar changes were made in Manipur, Mizoram, and Rajasthan to respect community schedules and increase voter convenience. With this adjustment, one assembly constituency in Kerala, four in Punjab, and nine in Uttar Pradesh will now hold their by-polls on November 20, while the dates for vote counting and final poll completion remain set for November 23 and 25, respectively. (With inputs from agencies)

By-polls in Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, and Punjab rescheduled due to clash with religious festivals — check new dates here

The <keyword id="19895876" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Election-Commission-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Election Commission of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Election Commission of India">Election Commission of India</keyword> (ECI) has officially announced the schedules for the upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, setting the stage for crucial state elections next month. Here’s what voters in these states can expect: <h2>Maharashtra: Single-phase voting on November 20</h2>Maharashtra will head to the polls in a single phase on November 20, with vote counting scheduled for November 23. This election will see a high-stakes contest between two major coalitions: the <keyword id="19924537" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Maha-Vikas-Aghadi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Maha Vikas Aghadi" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Maha Vikas Aghadi">Maha Vikas Aghadi</keyword> (MVA) and the <keyword id="21555670" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Maha-Yuti-Alliance" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Maha Yuti Alliance" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Maha Yuti Alliance">Maha Yuti Alliance</keyword>. The MVA consists of <keyword id="19905331" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Uddhav-Thackeray" source="keywords">Uddhav Thackeray</keyword>'s Shiv Sena (UBT), the <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword>, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) under Sharad Pawar. Meanwhile, the Maha Yuti Alliance brings together the <keyword id="19931558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bharatiya-Janata-Party" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bharatiya Janata Party" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bharatiya Janata Party">Bharatiya Janata Party</keyword> (BJP), Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde, and the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP. This intense battle for control over the 288-seat Maharashtra Assembly follows the end of the current term on November 26. The model code of conduct has come into immediate effect in Maharashtra, guiding political parties on appropriate campaigning practices and ensuring fair elections. <h2>Jharkhand: Two-phase voting on November 13 and 20</h2>In Jharkhand, voting will occur in two phases: the first on November 13 and the second on November 20. The results will be declared on November 23, alongside Maharashtra’s. This election focuses on the 81-seat Assembly, with a fierce competition expected between the ruling <keyword id="20028356" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jharkhand-Mukti-Morcha" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Jharkhand Mukti Morcha" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Jharkhand Mukti Morcha">Jharkhand Mukti Morcha</keyword> (JMM)-Congress alliance and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which includes the BJP, All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), and Janata Dal (United). Jharkhand’s current Assembly term expires on January 5, 2025. The elections will feature 29,562 polling stations across urban and rural areas to accommodate the state’s 2.6 crore registered voters. This diverse electorate includes 66.84 lakh young voters and 11.84 lakh first-time voters, with special arrangements for 3.67 lakh persons with disabilities. <h2>Pre-election preparations</h2>The ECI’s preparations for the elections began in September, with teams visiting both states to assess readiness. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar, alongside Election Commissioners Gyanesh Kumar and Sukhbir Singh Sandhu, met with local officials, district collectors, and political representatives to evaluate logistical arrangements and security measures. In Maharashtra, the Maha Yuti Alliance and the MVA have been ramping up their efforts to secure <keyword id="23060079" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="voter-support" source="keywords">voter support</keyword> in what is expected to be a dramatic electoral showdown. In Jharkhand, the ruling JMM, which is part of the INDIA bloc, is eyeing another term despite recent controversies surrounding Chief Minister Hemant Soren, who faced legal challenges earlier this year. The JMM-Congress-RJD alliance remains strong, as the party is expected to contest all 81 seats in the Assembly. (With inputs from agencies)

ECI Announces election schedules for Maharashtra and Jharkhand; both states to vote in November

The <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Election-Commission" source="keywords">Election Commission</keyword> has received eight applications from aggrieved <keyword id="19902220" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="candidates" source="keywords">candidates</keyword>, including those from the <keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="BJP" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="BJP">BJP</keyword> and the <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword>, for verification of tampering or modification in micro-controller chips embedded in the EVMs post declaration of Lok Sabha election results on June 4. Terming the suspicion of manipulation of the electronic voting machines "unfounded", the <keyword id="19895345" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Supreme-Court" source="keywords">Supreme Court</keyword> had on April 26 rejected the demand for reverting to the old paper ballot system. But at the same time, the top court had opened a window for the aggrieved unsuccessful candidates securing second and third places in the poll results and allowed them to seek verification of micro-controller chips embedded in five per cent EVMs per assembly constituency on a written request upon the payment of a fee to the poll panel. BJP's Ahmednagar (Maharashtra) candidate Sujay Vikhe-Patil has sought verification of the machines from 40 <keyword id="20300567" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="polling-stations" source="keywords">polling stations</keyword>. Vikhe-Patil had lost to Nilesh Lanke of NCP (Sharad Pawar) faction. A YSRCP and a DMDK candidate too have applied for the verification, according to data shared by the poll panel. According to the EC, eight parliamentary seats spread across six states are involved. The total number of polling stations for which verification has been sought is 92. Candidates who come second or third and seek verification of the EVMs will have to pay Rs 47,200 per EVM set, according to the standard operating procedure issued by the EC on June 1. According to the EC's Standard Operating Procedure (SOP), the cost submitted by manufacturers BEL and ECIL to carry out EVM "check and verification" is Rs 40,000 (plus 18 per cent GST) per set of EVM. "In addition to the cost incurred by the manufacturers, there are also administrative costs like cost of labour to shift the units, CCTV coverage, electricity charges, videography costs and various other operational costs at the district election officer level," the document said. It, however, said to make the <keyword id="21143428" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="verification-process" source="keywords">verification process</keyword> "more accessible" and inclusive in compliance to the referred mandate of the Supreme Court, it is decided that instead of going purely by the actual economic costs incurred, the administrative expenditure on <keyword id="22122362" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="EVM-verification" source="keywords">EVM verification</keyword> will be treated as "election expenditure and borne by the central or state government, as the case may be". "Accordingly, the administrative charges will be waived for the applicants -- the same shall not be charged to the applicants," it noted. The charges for EVM verification to be paid by the applicant candidate is for the current financial year 2024-25 -- till March 31, 2025, it said. An EVM set has at least one Ballot Unit, one Control Unit and a <keyword id="19975285" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vvpat" source="keywords">VVPAT</keyword> machine. Separately, YSRCP and BJD candidates from Andhra Pradesh and Odisha respectively have also applied for EVM check following the announcement of assembly results on June 4. Assembly polls in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh were held along with the Lok Sabha elections. In the verification exercise for assembly poll results, total assembly constituencies involved are three where verification has been sought in 26 polling stations. According to the SOP, the concerned state chief electoral officer (CEO) was required to communicate to the manufacturers the consolidated list of applicants within 30 days of the date of declaration of results -- by July 4. The CEOs have already conveyed the same to the manufacturers 15 days ahead of the schedule, the EC said. The technical SOP enumerating the methodology and steps for checking and verification of burnt memory/ micro-controller of the EVM units will be issued by the EC in due course.

EC receives applications for EVM verification on 8 LS seats in 6 states

Descendants of royal families, who are contesting the 2024 <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword> on <keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP" source="keywords">BJP</keyword> tickets, have performed fairly well with a majority of them leading with a huge margin on their respective seats. <keyword id="29632" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jyotiraditya-scindia" source="Orion">Jyotiraditya Scindia</keyword>, the scion of the erstwhile royal family of Gwalior who severed his 18-year-long ties with the <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword> in 2020 and joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is leading with over 5 lakh votes from the Guna parliamentary constituency in <keyword id="19898705" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Madhya-Pradesh" source="keywords">Madhya Pradesh</keyword>. The Union civil aviation minister is pitted against the Congress' Rao Yadvendra Singh. This is the first time in his political career that Scindia (53) is contesting as a BJP candidate from Guna, which was earlier represented by his late father Madhavrao Scindia and late grandmother Vijayaraje Scindia. The BJP is having a clean sweep in Madhya Pradesh by securing huge vote margins on all 29 seats. Another royal candidate Dushyant Singh, Prince of Dholpur state in <keyword id="19898913" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rajasthan" source="keywords">Rajasthan</keyword>, who has been elected four times in the past, is also leading from Jhalawar-Baran with over 3.5 lakh votes against his rival Urmila Jain of the Congress. Mahima Kumari Mewar, the wife of <keyword id="21351143" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vishvaraj-singh" source="keywords">Vishvaraj Singh</keyword> Mewar who is a descendant of Maharana Pratap, is also leading from Rajsamand Lok Sabha seat in Rajasthan with around 4 lakh votes against her nearest rival Dr Damodar Gurjar of the Congress. In Rajasthan, the BJP has won one seat and is leading on 13 out of 25 parliamentary constituencies. In the south, <keyword id="20932800" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="yaduveer-krishnadatta-chamaraja-wadiyar" source="keywords">Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar</keyword>, 31-year-old US-educated who was crowned as the titular head of the erstwhile Mysuru royal family in 2015 making him the 27th 'King' of the Wadiyar dynasty, is a BJP candidate for the Mysuru Lok Sabha seat. Yaduveer is leading with over 1.3 lakh votes against Congress' candidates M Lakshmana from this seat. As per the latest trend, the BJP has won one seat and leading on 15 seats out of 28 parliamentary seats in Karnataka. The Congress is leading on 10 seats. In Odisha, while contesting as a BJP candidate, Malvika Devi, wife of former MP Arka Keshari Deo, a member of the royal family of Kalahandi district, is leading with about one lakh votes against her nearest rival Lambodar Nial of Biju Janata Dal (BJD). The BJP has put up a significant performance in Odisha as its candidates are leading on 19 out of 21 seats. Among the Northeastern states, Kriti Singh Debbarma, a member of the Tripura's erstwhile royal family, who is a joint candidate of the regional party Tipra Motha and the BJP, is leading with over 5.5 lakh votes on Tripura East seat from her nearest rival Rajendra Reang of the Communist Party of India (CPI). Tripura has two parliamentary constituencies and the BJP is leading on both of them. Among the losing royal challengers of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is Vikramaditya Singh, who is contesting from the Congress from the Mandi Lok Sabha seat. Singh, the heir of the Rampur royal family and son of the late Virbhadra Singh, a six-time chief minister of Himachal Pradesh, is trailing as his rival, actress-turned-politician Kangna Ranaut of the BJP, is ahead of him with over 70,000 votes. Another royal candidate is Rajmata Amrita Roy from the Krishnanagar seat in West Bengal, who is also trailing by over 50,000 votes against Trinamool Congress' (TMC) Mahua Moitra. Roy, married to the family of Maharaja Krishnachandra Roy, is revered as the "Rani Maa" or Queen Mother by the constituency, carrying a legacy rich in tradition and aristocracy.

Lok Sabha polls: Royal family candidates heading towards a comfortable victory

New Delhi, The <keyword id="40807" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="election-commission" source="Orion">Election Commission</keyword> on Wednesday changed the date of polling for the Rajasthan assembly elections from November 23 to November 25 citing "large-scale" weddings and social engagements. In a statement, the EC said the decision was taken following representations made by various parties and social organisations for a change of the date of poll "considering large-scale wedding/social engagements on that day (November 23) which may cause inconvenience to large number of people, various logistic issues and may lead to reduced voters participation during poll". "The Commission, having considered these factors and representations, has decided to change the date of poll from 23rd November, 2023 (Thursday) to 25th November, 2023 (Saturday)," it added. The counting of votes will take place as scheduled on December 3, along with the same for four other state assembly polls. The poll panel announced the assembly poll schedule for <keyword id="13051407" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rajasthan-madhya-pradesh" source="Orion">Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh</keyword>, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram on Monday.

Weddings over elections: Rajasthan polling date pushed to November 25

New Delhi, The <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Election-Commission" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Election Commission" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Election Commission">Election Commission</keyword> on Friday said it has identified 266 <keyword id="20809469" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="parliamentary-constituencies" source="keywords">parliamentary constituencies</keyword>, including 215 in rural areas, with <keyword id="21207154" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="low-voter-turnout" source="keywords">low voter turnout</keyword> and is planning <keyword id="21207534" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="targeted-intervention" source="keywords">targeted intervention</keyword> to enhance <keyword id="19973117" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="voting-percentage" source="keywords">voting percentage</keyword> in the upcoming <keyword id="19912155" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-polls" source="keywords">Lok Sabha polls</keyword>. Municipal commissioners from major cities and select district election officers from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh discussed enhancing voter engagement and participation in identified urban and rural Lok Sabha seats. At its conference on low <keyword id="20108198" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="voter-turnout" source="keywords">voter turnout</keyword> here, the EC said 266 parliamentary constituencies -- 215 rural and 51 urban -- with low voter turnout have been identified. Eleven states and Union territories - Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Telangana, Gujarat, Punjab, Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand - had a voter turnout lower than the national average of 67.40 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Addressing the participants, <keyword id="19998985" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chief-Election-Commissioner" source="keywords">Chief Election Commissioner</keyword> Rajiv Kumar stressed that 'one size fits all' approach will not work and different strategies have to be worked out for different areas and segments. Polling for the seven-phased Lok Sabha polls begins on April 19. Kumar emphasised on a three-pronged strategy of providing facilitation at polling stations, such as queue management, sheltered parking in congested areas; targeted outreach and communication; and involvement of critical stakeholders including RWAs, local icons and youth influencers to persuade people to come to polling stations on voting day. He told officials to prepare a booth-wise action plan for enhanced participation and behaviour change. He asked the participants to prepare different strategies for urban and rural areas and plan interventions accordingly for different target audiences. Discussions were centred on critical issues such as optimising queue management at polling stations and facilitating voting in high-rise buildings. Urban specific hurdles to increased voter turnout were identified and targeted city-specific interventions were planned. The officers were encouraged to develop tailored, region-specific outreach programs that resonate with the unique needs and demographics of their constituencies. The Commission recalled that nearly 29.7 crore eligible voters did not vote in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections "underscoring the scale of the problem which calls for proactive measures". In the last Lok Sabha elections, of the 50 seats with the lowest voter turnout, 17 were in metropolitans or major cities. It said recent elections across various states have highlighted trends of urban apathy towards the electoral process, warranting targeted interventions and collaborative endeavours.

EC identifies 266 Lok Sabha seats with low voter turnout, mostly in rural areas

Aligarh (<keyword id="19894922" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Uttar-Pradesh" source="keywords">Uttar Pradesh</keyword>) [India], April 9 (ANI): Every election season ushers in a slew of party symbols that range from the mundane to the outlandish. The Lok Sabha elections 2024 are no different. <keyword id="19941423" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Independent-candidate" source="keywords">Independent candidate</keyword> from Aligarh in Uttar Pradesh, <keyword id="21244546" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Pandit-Keshav-Dev" source="keywords">Pandit Keshav Dev</keyword>, decided to make the most of what the <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Election-Commission" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Election Commission" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Election Commission">Election Commission</keyword> has allotted to him as the poll symbol- a pair of slippers. Aiming to build recall of people, Dev was seen sporting a garland of 7 slippers around his neck during his campaign. Lok Sabha polls will be held in seven phases beginning April 19. Uttar Pradesh, which sends the maximum number of MPs, 80, to Parliament, will vote in all seven phases. Voting for phases one and two will be held on April 19 and April 26. Next, the state will once again poll in phases three and four on May 7 and May 13. The Uttar Pradesh electorate will also vote in phases five, six and seven on May 20, May 23 and June 1 respectively. Aligarh will go for polls in the second phase on April 26. The counting of votes will take place on June 4. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP candidate Satish Kumar Gautam won from the Aligarh garnering 656215 votes. BJP defeated BSP Dr. Ajeet Baliyan who got 426954 votes. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 71 seats with a 42.6 per cent vote share, while Congress settled for only 2 seats with 7.5 per cent of votes. (ANI)

A pair of slippers - the most unique poll symbol of an independent from Aligarh

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Prediction markets can be more accurate than polling when it comes to elections, a professor told Business Insider.</li><li>There's over $606 million wagered on the 2024 election on Polymarket, favoring a Harris win.</li></ul>When trying to figure out the outcome of an election, most look at polling, expert takes, or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-presidential-election-prediction-winner-donald-trump-kamala-harris-2024-8">even the stock market</a>. However, prediction markets, which allow bettors to wager on the outcome of events, may be the most accurate way of calling the result ahead of November 5. They've successfully forecast the last few presidential cycles and even predicted President Joe Biden would drop out weeks in advance.While they're not without their misses — they were notably wrong during the 2022 midterm elections, and after Biden won the 2020 election — Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane says prediction markets are historically more accurate than traditional polling. In the past month, a series of election-related events—an attempted assassination against Trump, President Joe Biden stepping down and endorsing Kamala Harris, and both candidates picking their running mates—have adjusted polling considerably.Yet Crane says these adjustments are often reflected in prediction markets more quickly.Polymarket, a crypto-based betting market, predicted a 70% chance President Joe Biden would drop out of the race this year as far back as July 4, two weeks before he actually bowed out."It's an event-driven market. So the past month has been very active because events have occurred that are of extreme significance," Crane said.And the markets will likely get even quicker at factoring in new information on election night in November.As vote totals, exit polls, and absentee ballots come in, prediction markets "move pretty significantly and pretty quickly in response to that information," he said.<h2 id="7dc81ce7-8b15-46b0-8923-323c06d08f5d">The user base is (literally) invested in the outcome</h2>There's a range of participants in betting markets, and most are making highly informed wagers, Crane said.There are recreational bettors who may just have an interest in whatever topic is up for debate, as well as professional bettors and betting syndicates whose livelihoods are at stake. There are also companies looking to hedge risk if they may be affected by candidates' proposed policies. With <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1723813625985">$606.5 million</a> riding on the election outcome on Polymarket alone, participants watch the news closely, Crane said. Even if they aren't based in the US, they are just as clued into election updates since their money is on the line.He likens it to sports betting: "I don't need to be a professional football player to know how to understand what's going to happen in a football game. And in fact, I could be better at it than players in the game from a betting or informational perspective," he said.<h2 id="fb2c38a6-7896-42bc-9923-760bf527f3ee">Higher participation could boost accuracy</h2>Crane says that prediction markets could become even more accurate— and avoid any potential risk of manipulation by political groups —if they are fully legalized in the US.The most popular prediction markets are largely unavailable to US participants. US-based users can't bet on Polymarket, and Betfair, one of the longest-running events markets, is only available in some US states.PredictIt, a project founded by researchers in New Zealand, has operated in the US under a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission since 2014, but limits American bettors to up to $850 in wagers, and only 5,000 betters can participate in each market.PredictIt is facing headwinds from the CFTC, which is looking to outlaw all election betting. If passed, Americans wouldn't be legally allowed to participate in any prediction markets, though some may try using VPNs to bypass regulations, which likely occurs now.Crane also said more participation would make manipulation less likely.While there's no hard evidence, he guesses that political bets may be especially prone to attempts at manipulation or influence. "Everything kind of feeds off of everything else, and by trying to limit one aspect of it, or trying to police one aspect of it, it can often ruin the entire market function," Crane said."I think that no limitations is actually the way to go if we want to have better, cleaner, more accurate markets."

Why prediction markets can be more accurate than polls at predicting election results

It is a momentous day for the country as we finally enter the vote-counting phase of the <keyword id="20181062" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="2024-Lok-Sabha-election" source="keywords">2024 Lok Sabha election</keyword> process on June 4. The 80-day, seven-phase-long process has been marred with a wide range of issues ranging from weather turmoil to vote tampering and reelections. As the final leg of counting concludes in a few hours, here’s what the vote tallying process looks like, and what is likely to happen after after the final results are announced. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Vote counting" comment="subhead" text="Vote counting"><keyword id="389062" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="vote-counting" source="Orion">Vote counting</keyword></cmsannotation> While the election process takes place in several stages, the vote tallying process is carried out simultaneously in all of the country’s 543 constituencies, with typically one counting centre in each. The tallying is done by a ‘Returning Officer’ and their assistants — officials appointed by the <keyword id="19895876" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Election-Commission-of-India" source="keywords">Election Commission of India</keyword> — in several rounds, or ‘leads’. This year, the counting process began at 8 AM IST on June 4, and is expected to carry on till beyond the afternoon. It will start with the tallying of postal ballots — ballot papers distributed to some categories of people — followed by the <keyword id="21930663" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="EVM-count" source="keywords">EVM count</keyword>. Periodically, the results of the ongoing count are announced to the media and then televised, helping the nation learn of the current political trend. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="The counting process for the Lok Sabha Election" comment="subhead" text="The counting process for the Lok Sabha Election">The counting process for the Lok Sabha Election</cmsannotation> Under Rule 54 A of the Conduct of Elections Rules 1961, the process for counting votes starts with postal ballots at the Returning Officer's (RO) table. Thirty minutes into postal ballot counting, Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) votes can be counted, or immediately if no postal ballots are present. Counting officials must ensure that the EVM's Control Unit (CU) seal is intact and that the total votes match Form 17C before counting. Results from the CU are recorded in Part-II of Form 17C, and verified by the counting supervisor, micro observer, and candidate agents. If the CU's display fails, <keyword id="20991106" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="VVPAT-slips" source="keywords">VVPAT slips</keyword> are counted post-CU counting. Results for each CU are documented and signed in Form 17C, which is then sent for compiling the final result in Form 20. VVPAT slip counting starts after CU votes are counted, with mandatory verification of VVPAT slips from five random polling stations per constituency. If the victory margin is less than the rejected postal ballots, those ballots are re-verified before declaring the result. In case of a tie, the winner is determined by a draw of lots. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Results are announced" comment="subhead" text="Results are announced">Results are announced</cmsannotation> The outcome for each constituency is announced as soon as counting concludes. As per <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>’s counting system, the candidate with the highest number of votes will win for a particular constituency, regardless of whether they are able to manage a majority. These results are generally televised throughout the day. After the <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election-commission" source="keywords">Election Commission</keyword> of India (ECI) has tallied all 64 crore votes that were cast this year, the constitutional body will announce the results for all 543 seats. Subsequently, if the winning party of the alliance has secured at least 272 seats, the institution’s president will call upon the leader of the winning party to form a government for the next five-year term. If no group is able to achieve a clear majority, political parties may form coalitions to reach the 272 magic number. If all negotiations fail and a “minority government” cannot be formed by the largest party, the President of India may dissolve the Lok Sabha (lower house of Parliament) and announce fresh elections. The next Lok Sabha must be announced before the current term ends on June 16. Most exit polls have indicated another landslide victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, with a third term for Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword>. However, early trends suggest that the Congress-led INDIA bloc is performing far better than expected. Results are expected to be clearer by the afternoon.

What will happen after the election commission finishes counting all Lok Sabha votes?

New Delhi, The <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election-commission" source="keywords">Election Commission</keyword> on Monday roped in banks and post offices to spread voter awareness as part of its efforts to increase voting percentage in the upcoming <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> polls. The poll panel has often expressed concern over urban and youth apathy with many registered voters not turning up at the polling stations to cast ballot in the previous elections. Over 30 crore of the 91 crore electors did not cast their ballot in the previous parliamentary polls. The Election Commission (EC) on Monday signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with two prominent organisations -- the Indian Banks' Association (<keyword id="19941316" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="iba" source="keywords">IBA</keyword>) and the Department of Posts (<keyword id="20733048" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dop" source="keywords">DoP</keyword>) -- to amplify its voter outreach and awareness efforts ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. The initiative, the poll panel said, is in continuation of its efforts to enhance electoral awareness in the country. The EC had recently signed an MoU with the Ministry of Education to formally integrate electoral literacy into the educational curriculum of the schools and colleges. The latest initiative has been taken based on insights and knowledge gained by Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) <keyword id="20110344" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rajiv-kumar" source="keywords">Rajiv Kumar</keyword> from his past roles and experience working in the financial sector, particularly in the Indian banking sector and India Post Payments Banks, the officials pointed out. As part of the MoU, the IBA and the DoP with its members and affiliated institutions will extend support in promoting voter education through their extensive network on a pro bono without charge basis, employing various interventions to empower the citizens with knowledge about their electoral rights, processes and steps for registration and voting. The members and affiliated institutions will now display voter education messages prominently on their websites, directing visitors to learn more about the electoral process. Voter education content will be disseminated through various promotional channels such as social media and customer outreach platforms of member institutions, ensuring widespread awareness among stakeholders and the public, the EC said. Voter education messages will also be displayed in the form of posters, flex and hoardings at office premises at major locations, reaching the customers at key touchpoints. All member institutions under the IBA and the DoP will establish 'voter awareness fora' to engage the employees and customers in discussions and initiatives related to voter education. The Department of Posts will affix a special cancellation stamp (bearing voter education messages) on the postal articles. "Despite successfully managing and conducting elections by the Election Commission over the years in a fair and peaceful way along with a significant increase in participation of the electors, there is also a concern that around 30 crore electors, out of 91 crore, did not cast their votes in general election to Lok Sabha 2019. The voting percentage was 67.4 per cent, which the Commission has taken as a challenge to improve upon," the EC said. The Indian Banks' Association now has a strong network of 247 members across the country. Public sector banks are in lead with 90,000+ branches and 1.36 lakh ATMs followed by 42,000+ branches of private sector banks with 79,000+ ATMs. Regional rural banks contribute over 22,400 branches, while small finance and payment banks operate around 7,000 branches and more than 3,000 ATMs. Foreign banks maintain 840 branches and 1,158 ATMs, and local area banks have 81 branches. "The cumulative number of the branches are over 1.63 lakh with more than 2.19 lakh ATMs across the country," the poll authority pointed out.

EC ropes in banks, post offices to spread voter awareness ahead of LS polls

New Delhi, Ahead of <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> polls, the <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election-commission" source="keywords">Election Commission</keyword> on Monday asked political parties not to use children in campaigning "in any form whatsoever", including for distribution of posters and pamphlets or sloganeering. In an advisory sent to parties, the poll panel conveyed its "zero tolerance" towards use of children in any manner during the electoral process by parties and candidates. Political leaders and candidates should not use children for campaign activities in any manner including holding a child in their arms, carrying a child in a vehicle or in rallies, the poll watchdog said. "This prohibition extends to the use of children to create the semblance of a political campaign in any manner including use through <keyword id="20292657" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="poem" source="keywords">poem</keyword>, <keyword id="19968741" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="songs" source="keywords">songs</keyword>, spoken words, display of insignia of political party or candidate...," EC said in a statement. However, the mere presence of a child accompanied by their parent or guardian in proximity of a political leader who is not involved in any election campaigning activity by the political party, will not be construed as a violation of the guidelines, it noted. Chief Election Commissioner <keyword id="20110344" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rajiv-kumar" source="keywords">Rajiv Kumar</keyword> has consistently emphasised the pivotal role of political parties as the EC's key stakeholders, urging them to become active partners in upholding democratic values, especially in view of forthcoming parliamentary polls.

Do not use children in poll campaigning: EC to political parties

New Delhi [India], June 4 (ANI): The mammoth exercise to count votes polled for the Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 elections will begin at 8 am on Tuesday, with trends and results following shortly thereafter. Results of the <keyword id="6372146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Assembly-elections" source="Orion">Assembly elections</keyword> in Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh were held simultaneously with voting for the 543-member Lok Sabha. Results of 175 Assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh and 147 Assembly constituencies in Odisha and results of bypolls in 25 Assembly constituencies will also be declared today. Here're the LIVE results: <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Infographic"><cdata><![CDATA[]]></cdata></div> Strict security has been put in place for the smooth conduct of counting of votes for over 8,000 candidates in this general elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek a third consecutive term in government, while the Congress-led opposition aims to unseat them. Most <keyword id="43771" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="Orion">exit polls</keyword> have predicted a return of PM Modi to power, a development which will make him the first Prime Minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to secure a third successive term in power, Meanwhile, a delegation of Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc leaders met with the Election Commission of India urging it to ensure that postal ballots are counted and their results declared before the outcome of the EVMs is announced. Earlier, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar had said that a "very robust system" has been put in place. "There are around 10.5 lakh booths. Each booth will have 14 tables. There are observers and micro-observers. Nearly, 70-80 lakh people are involved in the process," he said. The national capital is all set to witness the battle. With tight security arrangements in place, Delhi is well-prepared to watch the results of the 2024 <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-Elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword>. Around 70 companies of the security forces will be deployed at all seven counting centres across the national capital as part of the elaborate security arrangements made by the Delhi Police for today. Delhi traffic police issued a fresh advisory ahead of the counting of votes scheduled for Tuesday, listing key roads where traffic restrictions and diversions will start from 5 am onwards to ensure smooth vehicular movement. Prime Minister Modi's hometown, Gujarat, is also preparing for the vote-counting day as security forces rehearse and perform drills for the effortless conduct of D-day. Exit polls have predicted the return of the BJP to power. Various exit polls have given the BJP more than 64 seats in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is poised for a hat-trick win in Lok Sabha polls with a massive majority. Exit polls were predicted on Saturday and indicated that the ruling party at the Centre would improve its performance in several states ruled by other parties. A few exit polls predicted that the BJP-led NDA could reach the goal of "400 paar" stated by BJP leaders in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls. The exit polls predicted that the ruling BJP-led NDA is poised to improve its performance over its 2019 record when it won 352 seats. Two polls predicted the BJP would also improve its numbers from the 303 seats it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2019 elections, NDA wrested 353 seats, of which the BJP won 303 alone. The Opposition's UPA got only 93 seats of which the Congress got 52. The Lok Sabha elections were conducted in seven phases- on April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1. The counting trends and results, as per data entered by RO/ARO for AC/PC will be available on the ECI website as well as on the Voter Helpline App, both iOS and Android Mobile Apps, according to the ECI. The Voter Helpline App can be downloaded from the Google Play Store or Apple Play Store. Users can use the available filter to find out the winning/leading or trailing candidate details, along with the constituency-wise or State-wise results from the Voter Helpline App. The local display of the trends and results by the CEOs/ROs/DEOs may also be done through the Digital Display Panels, it said.

Lok Sabha elections 2024 results: Mammoth vote-counting exercise set to begin at 8 am, amid high security

With latest trends showing the BJP falling below the majority mark, the Congress on Tuesday said it has become clear that it will be a staggering political and decisively <keyword id="21932463" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="moral-defeat" source="keywords">moral defeat</keyword> for <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword>. Counting of votes are underway for the <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword>, with BJP emerging as the single largest party but not getting a majority. <keyword id="21129157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="keywords">Exit polls</keyword> on Saturday predicted that Prime Minister Modi will retain power for a third straight term, with the BJP-led NDA expected to win a big majority in the Lok Sabha polls. Congress general secretary <keyword id="20035989" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jairam-Ramesh" source="keywords">Jairam Ramesh</keyword> in a post on X said the exit polls have been completely exposed for what they were -- "a <keyword id="21932465" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="total-sham" source="Orion">total sham</keyword>." "Trends for all 543 seats are now available. The following have become clear: It will be a staggering political and decisively moral defeat for Mr. Narendra Modi," Ramesh said. He said it has also become clear that "the exit polls that he orchestrated have been completely exposed for what they were--a total sham." Early trends from counting of votes on Tuesday threw up disappointing results for the BJP-led NDA in the Lok Sabha elections, which appears to be losing heavily in its strongholds of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan although it is expected to form the government with about 290 seats. On its own, the BJP appeared to be falling below the majority mark with leads in 240 seats despite significant gains in Odisha, Telangana and Kerala, giving some solace to the party after the unexpected losses in the Hindi belt.

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By-polls in Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, and Punjab rescheduled due to clash with religious festivals — check new dates here

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