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Above-normal rainfall is expected during the 2024 southwest <keyword id="6358301" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon" source="Orion">monsoon</keyword> season over most parts of <keyword id="19897710" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="south-Asia" source="keywords">south Asia</keyword>, the South Asian <keyword id="21481676" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-outlook" source="keywords">Climate Outlook</keyword> Forum said on Tuesday. The forecast follows the prediction of above-normal rain in the monsoon season in <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> on the back of favourable <keyword id="20146476" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="La-Nina" source="keywords">La Nina</keyword> conditions, expected to set in by August-September. "Above normal rainfall is most likely during the 2024 southwest monsoon season (June-September) over most parts of south Asia, except some areas over northern, eastern, and northeastern parts of the region, where below-normal rainfall is most likely," the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) said. Above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are predicted over most parts of south Asia during the season, except a few areas over the southeastern part of the region where normal temperatures are most likely. This regional climate outlook for the 2024 southwest monsoon season has been developed by all nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of south Asia with support from international experts at the 28th session of SASCOF-28, conducted online. SASCOF said moderate <keyword id="19949878" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="El-Nino" source="keywords">El Nino</keyword> conditions are prevailing at present. ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are expected in the first half of the monsoon season. Thereafter, La Nina conditions may set in by the second half. El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India. La Nina conditions -- the antithesis of El Nino -- are the dominant factor in the likelihood of "above-normal" rainfall during the monsoon season, DS Pai, a senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told PTI. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, favourable for the Indian monsoon, are predicted in the later part of the season. Additionally, the snow cover in the northern hemisphere is low. The northern hemisphere winter and spring snow cover extent generally have an inverse relationship with the subsequent southwest <keyword id="20575709" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon-rainfall" source="keywords">monsoon rainfall</keyword> over south Asia. Earlier this month, the IMD said the seasonal rainfall in India will be on the higher side of 'above-normal' and pegged it at 106 per cent of the long-period average (87 cm). SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/mahindra-xuv-3xo-compact-suv-launched-in-india-starting-at-7-49-lakh/slidelist/109715525.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/mahindra-xuv-3xo-compact-suv-launched-in-india-starting-at-7-49-lakh/slidelist/109715525.cms" target="_blank">Mahindra XUV 3XO compact SUV launched in India starting at ₹7.49 lakh</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/upcoming-cars-and-two-wheelers-launching-in-india-in-may-2024/slidelist/109723620.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/upcoming-cars-and-two-wheelers-launching-in-india-in-may-2024/slidelist/109723620.cms" target="_blank">Upcoming cars and two-wheelers launching in India in May 2024</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/upcoming-smartphones-launching-in-india-in-may-2024/slidelist/109682003.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/upcoming-smartphones-launching-in-india-in-may-2024/slidelist/109682003.cms" target="_blank">Upcoming smartphones launching in India in May 2024</a>

Above-normal monsoon rainfall predicted in south Asia

The onset of a strong El Niño event led to an unusual winter season, with <keyword id="6355648" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="summer" source="Orion">summer</keyword>-like conditions arriving prematurely as early as February this year. Although the El Niño phenomenon has now moderated and is transitioning towards a neutral phase, the country must prepare for an exceptionally harsh summer ahead. If you've been struggling with the heat already, the news isn't comforting. The <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword> Meteorological Department (<keyword id="19933636" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="imd" source="keywords">IMD</keyword>) has issued a stark warning for the upcoming summer season spanning from April to June, anticipating scorching temperatures and prolonged heatwaves across most regions of the country. Expect both daytime and nighttime temperatures to remain higher than usual in many areas, except for parts of northeast and northwest India. Extended periods of intense heatwaves are forecasted to affect South, Central, and East India, as well as the northwestern plains, throughout April, May, and June. Moreover, there's a significant likelihood of heatwaves lasting 10-20 days, surpassing the typical duration of 4-8 days. Central and western regions, including Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha, are anticipated to experience the brunt of these extreme heatwaves. In terms of pre-monsoon rainfall, April is expected to see normal rains, with increased precipitation predicted for May and June in Northwest, Central, North Peninsular, East, and Northeast India. However, coastal areas in both the East and West, as well as West-central India, can expect below-normal rainfall, offering little relief from the sweltering conditions. Heatwaves pose serious risks, particularly for vulnerable groups such as the elderly, young children, and individuals with health issues, who are more susceptible to heat-related illnesses like heatstroke, heat exhaustion, and dehydration. Additionally, extreme heat can strain power grids, transportation, and other infrastructure. To mitigate these risks, proactive measures such as establishing cooling centres, issuing heat advisories, and implementing strategies to reduce urban heat buildup are crucial. Furthermore, this period of intense heat coincides with the <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> elections (April 19th - June 1st), where nearly a billion people are expected to participate. Union Earth Sciences Minister Kiren Rijiju emphasised the need for India to prepare adequately due to its large population and extreme weather conditions. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued a <keyword id="6371478" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="heatwave" source="Orion">heatwave</keyword> advisory for the elections, urging electoral bodies to work with states to prevent heat-related incidents during public gatherings. In summary, India is bracing for a challenging summer characterised by above-normal temperatures and prolonged heatwaves. Remaining informed and taking necessary precautions will be vital for navigating this period safely.

India in for brutal heatwave conditions from April to June; likely to have sizzling impact on Lok Sabha elections

Geneva, July 5 (IANS) <keyword id="1270091" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="el-nino-conditions" source="Orion">El Nino conditions</keyword> have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years, setting the stage for a likely surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns, according to a new report issued by the <keyword id="555589" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="world-meteorological-organization" source="Orion">World Meteorological Organization</keyword> (WMO) on Wednesday. WMO forecasts that there is a 90 per cent probability of the <keyword id="51549" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="el-nino" source="Orion">El Nino</keyword> event continuing during the second half of 2023, and it is expected to be at least of moderate strength. “The onset of El Nino will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas, in a statement. El Nino occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes typically last nine to 12 months. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. But it takes place in the context of a climate changed by human activities. The UN agency said that since February, monthly average sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have warmed significantly, rising from nearly half degree Celsius below average (-0.44 in February) to around half degree Celsius above average (+0.47 in May). In the week centred on June 14, the warm sea surface temperature anomalies continued to increase, reaching a value of +0.9 degrees Celsius. The collective evidence from both oceanic and atmospheric observations strongly points towards the presence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific, the WMO said. However, some uncertainty remains because of only weak ocean-atmosphere coupling, which is crucial for the amplification and sustenance of El Nino. It is anticipated that it will take approximately another month or so to witness a fully established coupling in the tropical Pacific. “As warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are generally predicted over oceanic regions, they contribute to widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over land areas. Without exception, positive temperature anomalies are expected over all land areas in the Northern and <keyword id="844937" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="southern-hemisphere" source="Orion">Southern Hemisphere</keyword>,” said the UN agency’s latest update for July, August and September 2023. “The declaration of an El Nino by the WMO is the signal to governments around the world to mobilise preparations to limit the impacts on our health, our ecosystems and our economies,” Taalas said. “Early warnings and anticipatory action of extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon are vital to save lives and livelihoods,” he added.

El Nino is here says WMO, warns of surge in global temperatures

El Nino - All about how it impacts the Indian climate and economy

By <keyword id="17954793" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="ester-salimun" source="Orion">Ester Salimun</keyword>, National University of Malaysia Kuala Lumpur, Jul 10 (360info) The dry weather could result in prolonged droughts and haze affecting millions across the region as it did in 2015. Malaysia and the rest of <keyword id="53564" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="southeast-asia" source="Orion">Southeast Asia</keyword> face heightened risks of haze, drought and water shortages if an <keyword id="51549" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="el-nino" source="Orion">El Nino</keyword> weather phenomenon is declared this year. The onset of dry conditions can typically last a year beginning in either July or August. The region was last hit by an El Nino in 2015/16 when several countries were blanketed by a transboundary haze resulting in cancelled flights, closed schools and a sharp increase in respiratory ailments and deaths. Water rationing was also introduced due to drought. The <keyword id="2607044" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="us-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administration" source="Orion">US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</keyword> agency says that an El Nino will strengthen toward the end of 2023 with a 56 per cent chance of it peaking as a strong event and an 84 per cent likelihood of at least a moderate event. A strong El Nino would have considerable impact on Sumatra, <keyword id="708552" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="java-island" source="Orion">Java Island</keyword>, Sulawesi and southern Borneo with drier conditions from September to November. Northern Borneo and the southern Philippines could experience dry spells from December to February. And if there is extensive open burning or forest fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan, a transboundary haze may result when the southwest monsoon sweeps the particles towards Singapore and Malaysia. The 1997/98 El Nino event is an example of an El Nino-induced drought and transboundary haze disaster. It is considered the most severe Southeast Asian haze event of all time, lasting three months causing billions of dollars in losses due to disrupted air travel and business activities plus increased healthcare expenditures. Thousands died. It also caused droughts and flooding in other parts of the world with extreme rainfall in Africa and North America and one of Indonesia's worst droughts on record. The year 1998 ultimately became one of the warmest years on record. The El Nino and La Nina weather patterns result from complex interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean with significant warming or cooling occurring in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. These interactions disturb air flows in the lower atmosphere and lead to localised air-sea interactions that impact weather across the globe. The drier-than-normal conditions are influenced by two anticyclonic systems active over the southern Indian Ocean and the north-western Pacific Ocean. These systems act as controlling mechanisms, shaping the movement and intensity of dry conditions across regions. While air-sea interactions shape local impacts of an El Nino, monsoonal winds also help, strengthening it during the summer months (June to August) and weakening it during winter (December to February). In the summer months in Southeast Asia, southerly winds prevail, blowing northward from Kalimantan and Sumatra. These winds enhance the southwesterly monsoon winds which can blow the smoke-haze from Sumatra and Kalimantan towards Singapore, Peninsular Malaysia, Sarawak, Brunei and Sabah. During autumn (September to November), the southern part of Southeast Asia (Sumatra and Kalimantan) continues to experience reduced rainfall while conditions in Peninsular Malaysia return to normal. However, in Borneo, the area of reduced rainfall expands northwards, covering the entire island. This dry weather aids large-scale forest fire outbreaks in southern Sumatra and Kalimantan which result in the haze. Southeast Asia's geographical location between the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exposes the region to the influence of both El Nino in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean Dipole occurrence. The dipole is a climate pattern characterised by temperature differences between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean. Similar to El Nino, it affects air-sea weather patterns and ruffles the southern part of Southeast Asia. If these two climate phenomena occur together, they can bring out the worst in each other causing disaster-scale droughts and haze, especially during the summer and autumn seasons. The various phases of an El Nino phenomenon, spanning its origin to its influence on regional atmospheric and oceanic processes, is a complex interplay between anti-cyclonic circulations, monsoonal winds, sea surface temperatures and other atmospheric variables. These interactions collectively shape the drier-than-normal conditions over Southeast Asia during El Nino events. Gaining a comprehensive understanding of these dynamics is essential for accurately predicting and managing the impacts of El Nino on our climate and associated socio-economic sectors. To mitigate the effects of haze episodes, proactive measures that encompass monitoring and controlling human activities contributing to fire outbreaks are important to ensure the well-being and sustainability of affected regions. (360info.org) GRS GRS

Southeast Asia braces for more droughts and haze with El Nino in the horizon

Global temperatures have accelerated to record-setting levels this month, an ominous sign in the climate crisis ahead of a gathering <keyword id="51549" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="el-nino" source="Orion">El Nino</keyword> that could potentially propel 2023 to become the <keyword id="1516875" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hottest-year" source="Orion">hottest year</keyword> ever recorded. Preliminary global average temperatures taken so far in June are nearly 1 degree Celsius above levels previously recorded for the same month, going back to 1979, the <keyword id="6359268" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="guardian" source="Orion">Guardian</keyword> reported. While the month is not yet complete and may not set a new June record, climate scientists say it follows a pattern of strengthening global heating that could see this year named the hottest ever recorded, topping 2016. The long-term warming conditions caused by the burning of fossil fuels will likely receive a further pulse of heat via El Nino, a naturally reoccurring phenomenon where sections of the Pacific Ocean heat up, typically causing temperatures to spike across the world. Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said El Nino conditions are now present and will "gradually strengthen" into early next year. <keyword id="106039" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="michael-mann" source="Orion">Michael Mann</keyword>, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, said human-caused warming will be exacerbated by an event that typically adds between 0.1-0.2 degrees to the overall global temperature. "The global surface temperature anomaly is at or near record levels right now, and 2023 will almost certainly be the warmest year on record," the Guardian quoted <keyword id="19116" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="mann" source="Orion">Mann</keyword> as saying. "That is likely to be true for just about every El Nino year in the future as well, as long as we continue to warm the planet with fossil fuel burning and carbon pollution." Mika Rantanen, a Finnish meteorologist, said that the spiking heat so far this month is "extraordinary" and that it is "pretty certain" it will result in a record warm June, the Guardian reported. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/entertainment/news/sonam-kapoor-plans-to-return-to-bollywood-with-2-yrf-films/articleshow/101014785.cms">Sonam Kapoor plans to return to Bollywood with 2 YRF films</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/govt-cuts-import-duty-on-refined-soybean-sunflower-oils-to-12-5/articleshow/101015719.cms">Govt cuts import duty on refined soybean &amp; sunflower oils to 12.5%</a>

The year of 2023 likely to become the hottest ever, says The Guardian

<ul><li>Economists at Bank of Baroda in their macro outlook for FY24 see India’s <keyword id="598729" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cpi-inflation" source="Orion">CPI inflation</keyword> moderating to 5.5% as opposed to 6.7% in FY23. </li><li>India’s GDP is expected to grow between 6-6.5% in FY24. </li><li><keyword id="6356076" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="indian-economy" source="Orion">Indian economy</keyword> expected to stay resilient; headwinds such as global slowdown and <keyword id="51549" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="el-nino" source="Orion">El Nino</keyword> factored in. </li></ul>After raising <keyword id="6371181" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="Orion">interest rates</keyword> by 250 basis points in the last financial year (FY23), India’s central bank could now cut its lending rate twice in the second half of this year (FY24), say economists at Bank of Baroda. This means that the repo rate, which stands currently at 6.5% will come down to 6%. In a webinar titled ‘Indian Economy FY24 — A Prognosis’, economists at Bank of Baroda said that they do not expect any rate action in the first half of FY24, but believe that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may effect two rate cuts amounting to a 50 basis point cut in the second half of the financial year. “Generally, we expect stance to change before rate action, and now RBI is working on withdrawal of accommodation. I would be looking at the stance changing to neutral before the rate cut,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda on Friday. The prediction comes on the back of the belief that India’s inflation reading will continue to moderate. The economists expect CPI, or the consumer price index, inflation to moderate to 5.5% as opposed to 6.7% seen in FY23. “The upside risks to this are a favourable base and lower energy prices globally. If the El Nino threat persists, it may affect the summer crops,” said Aditi Gupta, an economist at Bank of Baroda. India’s growth gears BoB economists expect India’s GDP to grow anywhere between 6-6.5% in FY24 which is slightly higher than IMF’s predictions of 5.9%. However, a report by SBI Ecowrap expects the GDP growth at 7.1% – in line with NSSO’s predictions of 7% growth. It is noteworthy that SBI Ecowrap says that India is likely to continue its showdown in pursuing a different pathway of zeroing in on drivers of growth, looking for a renewed surge in resilient manufacturing while supporting the services sector to embrace enhanced efficiency. “Locally, domestic consumption and investment stand to benefit from stronger prospects for agricultural and allied activities, strengthening business and consumer confidence, and strong credit growth while supply responses and cost conditions are poised to improve as inflationary pressure is easing,” SBI said. The challenges BoB believes that the Indian economy will continue to be resilient, but has also taken into account other factors like expected slowdown in the global economy. “Unlike China, India is primarily a domestic oriented economy but it needs rural demand, job creation and other factors to play out,” said Sabnavis adding that there is uncertainty around the agriculture sector, due to the El Nino phenomenon. In their presentation, BoB economists noted that downside risks to agriculture are – a possible heatwave from El Nino impact, <keyword id="484499" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="unseasonal-rainfall" source="Orion">unseasonal rainfall</keyword>, late departure of the monsoon and spatial distribution of rainfall. India’s bank credit is expected to grow anywhere between 12-14% in FY24, matched by a healthy growth of 11-12% in deposits. They also expect FPI inflows to turn positive after being in the negative zone in FY23. Quantitative tightening in the international markets will also present its set of challenges. While investors will be left with fewer funds to choose from, the risk of recession might make them look for safe haven investments. Economists believe that both will be deciding factors in how much foreign inflows (FDI as well FPI) India sees in the current financial year. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/nykaa-is-going-strong-on-physical-stores-as-it-aims-for-an-optimum-offline-online-mix/articleshow/100506296.cms">Nykaa is going strong on physical stores as it aims for an ‘optimum offline-online mix’</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/indians-want-to-spend-the-2000-note-but-it-doesnt-look-easy/articleshow/100496839.cms">Indians want to spend the ₹2,000 note but it doesn’t look easy</a>

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Above-normal monsoon rainfall predicted in south Asia

PTI

India in for brutal heatwave conditions from April to June; likely to have sizzling impact on Lok Sabha elections

Ashmita Gupta

El Nino is here says WMO, warns of surge in global temperatures

IANS

El Nino - All about how it impacts the Indian climate and economy

Rahul Verma

Southeast Asia braces for more droughts and haze with El Nino in the horizon

PTI

The year of 2023 likely to become the hottest ever, says The Guardian

IANS

With inflation cooling, RBI may slash interest rates by 50 bps this financial year

Katya Naidu

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