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As Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman holds a review meeting with heads of Public Sector Banks and Regional Rural Banks on Monday, the State Bank of India (SBI) in its latest report noted that the belief that the deposit growth in the banking sector is flagging is just a statistical myth. However, the report highlighted that, while it's true that <keyword id="19998083" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-growth" source="keywords">credit growth</keyword> has outpaced deposit growth in recent years, leading some to trumpet this as a sign of decelerating deposit activity, a deeper analysis reveals a different story. The report highlighted that in FY23, the banking sector, particularly All Scheduled Commercial Banks (ASCBs), registered the highest absolute growth in both deposits and credit since 1951-52. Deposits grew by an impressive Rs 15.7 lakh crore, while credit expanded by Rs 17.8 lakh crore, pushing the incremental Credit-Deposit (CD) Ratio to a staggering 113 per cent. The momentum continued into FY24, with deposits rising by Rs 24.3 lakh crore and credit by Rs 27.5 lakh crore. Despite the narrative suggesting a slowdown in deposit growth, the data tells us otherwise. Since FY22, incremental deposit growth has actually outpaced incremental credit growth, with deposits increasing by Rs 61 trillion compared to Rs 59 trillion in credit. "Decadal Deposits have expanded by a sharp 2.75 times, but Decadal credit expanded by 2.8 times since FY22, deposits expanded Rs 61 trillion vis-a-vis credit expansion at Rs 59 trillion," said the report. The report noted that the key issue at play here is not the quantum of deposits but the pricing. Historical trends have shown periods where credit and deposit growth diverge for 2 to 4 years. "The myth of a flagging deposit growth appears as just a statistical myth with credit growth outpacing deposit growth being tom-tommed as a deceleration in deposit growth" said the report. According to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) study, as of June 2024, we are in the 26th month of this divergence, with predictions indicating that the cycle could end between June and October 2025. "The end of the divergence cycle could be June 2025 -October 2025" the report noted. The report also added that once this divergence ends, deposit growth is expected to pick up, while credit growth could slow significantly, signaling the beginning of a rate reversal cycle and a potential economic slowdown. Another noteworthy trend in the banking system is the decline in CASA (Current Account Savings Account) deposits. The report stated that the CASA deposits fell to 41.0 per cent in FY24 from 43.5 per cent in FY23, largely due to a decline in SB (Savings Bank) deposits. This decline, while somewhat aligned with pre-pandemic levels of 42 per cent, reflects a shift in how SB deposits are being used. Increasingly, SB deposits are being used primarily for transactional purposes, particularly UPI transactions, leading to greater movement across the banking system and raising concerns about the stability of SB deposits. Moreover, the rising returns on term deposits have been driving a significant compositional shift in bank deposits. The share of term deposits in total deposits has increased to 59.0 per cent in FY24 from 56.5 per cent in FY23, while the share of CASA deposits has continued to decline. The report said that this shift is a natural response to the increasing interest rate environment, as funds move from low-interest CASA accounts to higher-yielding time deposits. On an incremental basis, term deposits accounted for nearly 78 per cent of the total deposits in FY24, underscoring the impact of higher <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> on deposit behavior. In conclusion, while the myth of declining deposit growth may persist, the reality is more nuanced. Deposit growth remains strong, with term deposits taking a larger share of the pie as interest rates rise. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/google-pixel-9-pro-fold-launched-in-india-at-172999-but-you-cant-get-your-hands-on-it-right-now/articleshow/112517193.cms">Google Pixel 9 Pro Fold launched in India at ₹1,72,999, but you can’t get your hands on it right now</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/ipo-scam-two-victims-from-hyderabad-lose-over-11crore-in-fake-ipo-scams/articleshow/112488051.cms">IPO scam – Two victims from Hyderabad lose over ₹11 crore in fake IPO scams</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-wearables-market-decline-for-the-first-time-as-smartwatch-shipments-fall/articleshow/112397246.cms">India’s wearables market decline for the first time as smartwatch shipments fall</a>

SBI report dismisses bank deposit concerns as a 'Statistical Myth'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Expect a re-acceleration of inflation for the rest of 2024 into 2025, says Michael Landsberg.</li><li>High shipping rates and daily living expenses indicate that inflation could be worse than expected.</li></ul>A few months ago, it seemed like the war on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/higher-long-term-inflation-outlook-investing-strategy-attractive-bonds-stocks-2024-10">inflation</a> had been won.Wall Street strategists were expecting inflation to continue cooling down into 2025, clearing the way for a series of consistent rate cuts as the Federal Reserve insisted price increases were no longer a threat. In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that prices rose 2.4% from last year — closing in on the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, wasn't so sure. He saw signs in the market pointing to a re-acceleration of inflation in the last few months of 2024 and into 2025.Now, it seems like Landsberg may be right. After a Trump victory, concerns about inflation are creeping up again as proposed policies such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-hit-company-stock-profits-hardest-china-investing-manufacturing-2024-11">tariffs</a> could push prices up. And as the October CPI report showed, inflation is back on the rise, with prices increasing 2.6% year-over-year. In an interview with Business Insider, Landsberg shared the economic indicators he's watching to monitor inflation and the best way to prepare your portfolio in case of another flare up.<h2 id="7dc40d47-f3ee-4de6-bd68-d838e6c9299f">'Higher for longer'</h2>Inflation could rise to 3% as early as January and hit a mid-3% level in 2025, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to continue its rate-cutting cycle, in Landsburg's view. He's expecting the Fed to pause rate cuts in December.Landsberg believes the Bureau of Labor Statistics' metrics aren't providing the full inflation picture. He's keeping his eye out on other economic indicators that provide a more on-the-ground look at inflation levels.First, rising Chinese shipping rates are a telling sign of inflation. China is one of the US' biggest trading partners, so an increase in transportation costs between the two countries will likely trickle down and reflect in consumer prices.Geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea are contributing to the price increases, as shipping companies are forced to detour and choose longer and more expensive routes, according to Landsberg.With <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-fed-rate-cuts-red-sea-attacks-panama-canal-shipping-2024-1">12% of global trade</a> passing through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea region is a critical trade route for consumer basics such as oil, cars, raw materials, and electronic components. As a result, these blockades are putting pressure on global supply chains and shipping costs.<div type="image" title="Shanghai Containerized Freight Index" height="663" width="1185" msid="115308890" hostid="261" sizebytes="33696"></div>The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, which tracks the current spot freight rates for containerized cargo departing from Shanghai, China, has remained elevated in 2024 after spiking earlier this year due to the continued blockade of the Red Sea by Houthi rebels."Shipping costs don't affect margins of companies as much as they're going to affect people's wallets, and that's not getting looked at," Landsberg said.Landsberg also points to the high prices of commodities and everyday necessities. Food prices and rents are still rising. In some East Coast metro areas, rents have risen over double digits since last year, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.redfin.com/news/rental-tracker-october-2024/">Redfin</a>.Insurance prices are another strong indicator of inflation, whether it be for cars or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/states-most-at-risk-climate-change-rising-home-insurance-premiums-2024-10">homes</a>."Inflation in insurance, which everyone has to have all the time, is up double digits year-over-year," Landsberg said. "That affects people's wallets certainly more than just a printed CPI number."That's not to mention the potential of wage inflation. According to October's employment report, hourly wage growth was up 4% from this time last year. If Trump clamps down on immigration, then that number could go even higher as the supply of workers falls, pushing up the cost of labor.<h2 id="102f3015-2817-4d7e-8b5c-6ea2e030d247">Rebalance your portfolio</h2>Diversification is key in an inflationary environment by spreading out risk between sectors and asset classes, but you might be less diversified that you think, according to Landsberg.One mistake that Landsberg sees investors making is doubling down too much on a specific investment theme. Investors bullish on AI may have devised creative ways to play the AI trade outside of the technology sector, such as buying data center real estate investment trusts and utility stocks. This can give them a false sense of security in their portfolio, as it seems like they're exposed to multiple different sectors.However, if all of your investments across sectors are based on the AI theme, you won't experience much derisking.Landsberg points to the market selloff in August this year, where utilities and real estate indices fared better than technology, but individual real estate and utilities stocks with significant exposure to data centers didn't perform so well."I tell people now that we need to be diversified on themes, not just on sectors," Landsberg said. Some other secular growth themes that Landsberg believes will drive stocks include an aging population, cybersecurity, and alternative energy.In addition to making sure you're sufficiently diversified, there are some other steps that you can take to protect your portfolio from inflation. Landsberg identified a few inflation-benefitting trades such as energy, financials, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-in-gold-price-record-highs-safe-haven-2024-10">gold</a>.Some funds that provide exposure to these sectors include the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/the-energy-select-sector-spdr-fund-us81369y5069?miRedirects=1">XLE</a>), the iShares US Financials ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-us-financials-etf-us4642877884?miRedirects=1">IYF</a>), and the Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/goldman-sachs-physical-gold-etf-us38150k1034?miRedirects=1">AAAU</a>)As the end of the year draws near, Landsberg recommends taking a look at your portfolio and rebalancing some positions. If you're overexposed to technology and AI, now is a good time to put money in more inflation-resistant areas.Ultimately, make sure you're investing in high-quality companies with a robust financial profile, he said."You need to have a portion of your portfolio that will do well if inflation starts to move back higher," Landsberg said. "You want companies with pricing power, companies with earnings growth."

Here's how to rebalance your portfolio as these economic indicators flash 'higher for longer' inflation and rates

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Texas' economy is growing faster than California's as it woos big companies and new residents.</li><li>While California still has the highest GDP in the US, Texas is close behind.</li></ul>California may boast the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/california-economy-ranks-5th-in-the-world-beating-the-uk-2018-5">top economy</a> in the country, but Texas is close on its heels.Since 2020, big-name companies and hundreds of thousands of residents have ditched California for Texas, and the Lone Star State's economic growth has surpassed that of its coastal counterpart.California's economy, while still on the up and up, has grown "relatively slowly" in recent years, according to an October 2024 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-economy/?utm_source=ppic&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=epub">fact sheet</a> from the Public Policy Institute of California, averaging an uptick of 2.3% annually from 2020 to 2023. That figure is down from a 3.9% average increase in California's gross domestic product in the prior four years, according to the nonprofit research institute.Meanwhile, Texas has seen its GDP grow at a rate of 3.9% since 2020, according to the Public Policy Institute. That figure is even stronger for the fourth quarter of 2023, which saw Texas' GDP grow at an annual rate of 5% — a jump that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/texas-economy-again-expands-faster-than-nation#:~:text=%E2%80%9CTexas%20is%20again%20outpacing%20the,America%2C%E2%80%9D%20said%20Governor%20Abbott.">attributed</a> to the state being "the best business climate" in the country.The margins between the behemoths are close and growing closer. California's economy ranks 5th internationally, per the report. Its $3.9 trillion GDP accounts for 14% of the national GDP, according to the report. But Texas isn't far behind, comprising 9% of the country's total economy and coming in eighth internationally, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-state-and-personal-income-state-4th-quarter-2023-and-preliminary">data</a> released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis earlier this year.California and Texas, which rank first and second in US population, respectively, have both seen their economies grow faster than the nation's overall economy in the last quarter-century. Since 1998, the US economy has increased 75%, while California's has jumped 111%, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.But Texas has them both beat with growth of 128% over that same time period, per the fact sheet.<h2 id="9e346c45-d5ad-41de-84b8-ba0fb92f4093">Texas has wooed major money-makers</h2>Texas' speedy financial growth comes as the state has increasingly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-moving-spacex-x-texas-headquarters-california-law-2024-7">marketed itself as a corporate haven</a> for businesses and an economic refuge for people seeking a more affordable cost of living.Many of the businesses and people who have flocked to Texas come directly from California.A wave of large companies, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-wants-move-spacex-x-headquarters-texas-tesla-california-2024-7">Tesla</a>, Charles Schwab, and Oracle, have ditched The Golden State for Texas in recent years. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-company-headquarters-hq-tesla-chevron-charles-schwab-california-economy-2024-8">Chevron</a>, which had been in California since 1879, is the latest business to leave for Texas after California sued the company last year over fossil fuel risks.Gov. Abbott welcomed Chevron to the state last month with a clear message: "Drill baby drill," he tweeted.Corporate fans of Texas, chief among them billionaire Elon Musk, say the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/moving-to-texas-because-california-regulations-too-tough-on-business-2024-2">state offers lower taxes and less regulation</a>. The Tesla CEO moved the company's HQ from Palo Alto, California, to Austin in 2021.Since then, several major corporations have followed suit. As of 2024, Texas is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/map-the-number-of-fortune-500-companies-in-each-u-s-state/">home</a> to 52 Fortune 500 companies, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fortune.com/ranking/fortune500/search/?statename=California">Fortune</a>.While California still has Texas beat with 55 Fortune 500 companies based in the state, including tech giants like Apple, Alphabet, Meta, and Nvidia, the state's lead is growing ever thinner. According to CBRE, a global real estate company that itself moved from California to Texas in 2020, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cbre.com/insights/local-response/the-shifting-landscape-of-headquarters-change-among-the-fortune-500">found</a> that eight Fortune 500 companies left California from 2018 to 2023, seven of which moved to Texas.<h2 id="baf0885e-765f-4f23-b1e6-69005786fc91">Some Texas residents are less happy</h2>As Texas' economy soars, some residents are feeling <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-housing-market-home-prices-falling-austin-dallas-moving-trends-2024-10">increasingly fed up and priced out.</a>Hundreds of thousands of Americans <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/moved-california-to-texas-will-never-go-back-expensive-2023-5">flocked to Texas</a> in the years since the COVID-19 pandemic began, many seeking cheaper living and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/conservative-moved-california-to-texas-back-orange-county-dallas-2024-7">pandemic and political freedoms</a>. Between 2021 and 2022, the state gained 668,000 new residents, according to the US Census Bureau <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/state-to-state-migration.html">data</a>.During that same period, however, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/leaving-texas-political-freedom-property-taxes-housing-costs-2023-11">Texas also lost nearly half a million people</a>, per census data.Some people <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/california-moved-texas-homeless-want-to-go-back-2024-9">who left California for Texas</a> in recent years ended up returning to the Golden State, telling BI that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/couple-moved-california-texas-back-santa-cruz-rosenberg-2023-11">intense weather</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/leaving-texas-political-freedom-property-taxes-housing-costs-2023-11">politics</a> in Texas were too much for them. Others told Business Insider they were dismayed to discover that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/moved-california-to-texas-not-cheap-politics-2024-8">cost of living in Texas </a>didn't meet their expectations.In the Dallas, Fort Worth, and Arlington areas, consumer prices have jumped 25% over the last five years, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUURA316SA0">according</a> to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.The state's big cities have primarily been the site of these small-scale exoduses, Business Insider's Jennifer Sor previously reported. Dallas has seen a slight population decline over recent years, losing about 5,000 people from mid-2020 to mid-2023, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-cities-and-towns.html">census data. </a>Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/austin-home-prices-falling-texas-mortgage-rates-housing-crisis-success-2024-9">Austin</a> ranks as the fifth most moved-out-of city in the US year to date, according to a May <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pods.com/blog/moving-trends">analysis</a> from moving firm PODS.Texas realtors also told BI that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/home-prices-falling-florida-texas-us-housing-market-pandemic-boomtowns-2024-10">housing market has cooled</a> amid less demand. Median home prices, meanwhile, have fallen about 7% from the mid-2022 highs, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.redfin.com/state/Texas/housing-market">data</a> from Redfin previously <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-housing-market-home-prices-falling-austin-dallas-moving-trends-2024-10">cited</a> by BI.

California's economic growth is slipping behind Texas as the Lone Star state draws corporate HQs and people 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks can climb 13%-14% to climb in 2025, UBS said.</li><li>The bank is adding to the growing numbers of forecasts for a "no landing" of the US economy. </li></ul>The stock market is on track for another year of double-digit gains, according to UBS.Strategists at the bank made a bullish call for stocks in a note on Friday, predicting the S&amp;P 500 would reach 6,600 by the end of next year. That forecast implies around 13% upside from the benchmark index's current levels, and the rise will be fueled by a "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-economy-no-landing-stock-market-outlook-advice-inflation-recession-2024-10">no landing</a>" for the economy, the firm said. In that scenario, economic growth continues, the job market remains strong, while inflation and interest rates might remain slightly higher than markets had previously expected under a hard landing or a soft landing scenario. "[T]he bottom line is that the improved US macroeconomic outlook increases our degree of certainty about our positive view of equities. We have upgraded US equities to Attractive from neutral," strategists said in a note on Friday, pointing to data that suggested the economy was on a solid bedrock.The job market is proving resilient, despite tighter financial conditions and higher interest rates. The US added <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10#:~:text=The%20US%20economy%20saw%20way,the%20second%20straight%20monthly%20decline.">254,000 jobs in September</a>, way more than the expected 147,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The jobless rate, meanwhile, remained near historic lows, with unemployment dipping to 4.1%. Economic activity also remains robust. Retail sales grew an above-expected 0.4% over the month of September, and GDP expanded <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product">3% year-over-year</a> in the second quarter. Inflation, meanwhile, is moving closer to the Fed's 2% target. Consumer prices grew 2.4% annually in September, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2024">personal consumption expenditures</a> inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, grew 2.2% year-over-year in August, its lowest reading since 2021.Cooling price growth sets the stage for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates, UBS said, which is bullish for stocks. Markets are pricing in a 72% chance the Fed will cut rates another 50 basis points by the end of year, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME Fedwatch tool</a>.The strategists added that while investors may see some volatility ahead of the November election, it's unlikely to interrupt more positive market catalysts."The US presidential election is unlikely to derail positive fundamentals. We expect volatility to rise in the runup to the election as neither party holds a clear advantage in any of the key swing states that will decide the outcome. But the election is taking place against a backdrop of Fed rate cuts, US economic momentum, and supportive secular trends like artificial intelligence (AI)," the note added.Other forecasters have said a "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10#:~:text=The%20no%2Dlanding%20scenario%20%E2%80%94%20in,enough%20to%20provide%20meaningful%20relief.">no landing" is looking to be more likely</a>, given the underlying strength of the US economy. Still, the New York Fed sees a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf">57% chance of the economy tipping into a downturn</a> by September 2025.

The economic 'no landing' could drive the S&P 500 to a 13% gain in 2025, UBS says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Taylor Swift's economic impact boosted the US economy by billions.</li><li>Now, she might do the same thing in Europe on the latest leg of her Eras Tour.</li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taylor-swift-eras-tour-set-list-in-order-2024-5#ready-for-it-14">"Baby, let the games begin."</a>The lyrics from Taylor Swift's "…Ready For It?" might be ringing through Europe's hospitality industry as "<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/concert-tickets-price-taylor-swift-economics-2023-7">Swiftonomics</a>" bears down on Europe.Over the last year, Swift's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taylor-swift-eras-tour-box-office-records-beyonce-barbie-oppenheimer-2023-10">Eras Tour and its affiliated film</a> cemented her <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-economy-nfl-eras-tour-2023-9">economic prowess in the United States</a>, injecting billions into the economy.Now, she's bringing that power to the European leg of her worldwide tour, during which she will perform in at least 18 cities.Local businesses are seeing Swift's impact weeks ahead of her concerts. Swift doesn't perform in Italy until mid-July, but hotels are already booked and busy."Our analysis and data shows that hotel prices in Milan are on average 45% higher for the nights of Taylor Swift's shows in the city in July 2024, compared to the weeks before and after the show," Ben Julius, the founder of a tourism company called <a target="_blank" href="https://www.touristitaly.com/">Tourist Italy</a>, told Business Insider.Julius added that the concertgoers only stay for an average of two nights, but the mass demand is "creating a wider tourism trickle-down effect" as the rising costs of travel and lodging push other tourists to find other places to stay.<div type="image" title="Taylor Swift performing in London on June 21 during The Eras Tour." height="1937" width="2844" msid="111207470" hostid="261" sizebytes="357256"></div>European economists monitoring inflation rates in the service sector are examining Swift's tour to see what impact it will have on Europe's economy.Officials at the <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ecb-lagarde-economy-interest-rates-cuts-inflation-growth-central-banks-2024-6">European Central Bank cut interest rates</a> this month after inflation slowed, but there are concerns that Swift's arrival in different cities could cause a new uptick.Because when Swift comes to town, she rallies tens of thousands of fans who will spend money on a bevy of services like restaurants, lodging, and local attractions. Some <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="http://businessinsider.com/traveled-la-to-paris-taylor-swift-eras-tour-worth-it-2024-5">Swifties will travel hours</a> — and across countries — to attend a concert, which puts a demand on airfare and other transportation options.Barclays' Consumer Spend research found that <a target="_blank" href="https://home.barclays/news/press-releases/2024/05/it-s-a--love-story---taylor-swift-s-eras-tour-to-provide-nearly-/">Swift's tour is expected to boost the UK economy</a> by £997 million ($1.26 billion).Central bankers told <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/21/business/taylor-swift-eras-tour-inflation-europe.html">The New York Times</a> that even small changes to data could affect their decision to continue cutting rates."All those tiny quirks are going to matter a lot," TD Securities strategist Lucas Krishan told the outlet.Krishan added that the service inflation rate could rise in August when Swift returns to London. Her tour dates — August 15 to August 20 — overlap with the day Europe's statistics agency records price data.<div type="image" title="Taylor Swift in a white dress and white lace-up boots performs on stage" height="1668" width="2500" msid="111207467" hostid="261" sizebytes="115356"></div>If the data shows too much increase, the Bank of England could theoretically pause plans to lower rates in September.Economist George Moran told the Times, however, that he thinks it's unlikely Swift will impact decision-making at the Bank of England."Taylor Swift is unlikely to be affecting central bank policy. She's unlikely to be affecting government policy," Moran, who works for Nomura, said. "And I don't think it's a sustainable option for growth in a country to rely on having superstar concerts."He told the Times the impact would likely be "more local than macro.""Taylor Swift is obviously a massive phenomenon, and the areas that she's visiting is causing a big buzz in the hospitality sector," he said.Representatives for Swift did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

Taylor Swift's economic clout has now come for Europe

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes posted big gains Thursday, with the Dow jumping 555 points as investors digested encouraging new data.</li><li>New releases showed retail sales jumped 1% in July, surpassing analyst expectations of 0.3%.</li></ul>Indexes rose sharply across the board on Thursday as investors reacted to encouraging retail sales and jobless claims data.The Dow jumped 555 points, a 1.4% increase, while the S&amp;P 500 saw a 1.6% rise and the Nasdaq composite climbed 2.3%.The gains come after retail sales data showed a 1% increase in July, led by spending in the auto and electronics sectors, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That increase outpaced analyst expectations of 0.3%.Jobless claims for last week, also reported Thursday, fell to 227,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the prior week. The encouraging data comes after a weaker-than-expected July jobs report helped kickoff a market selloff last week.Treasury yields rose too, with the 10-year treasury yield up more than 10 basis points to 3.926%.Retail sales and jobless claims data seem to be continuing to ease investor worries over the strength of the US economy after yesterday's CPI report added further confidence that inflation is easing.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,543.22, up 1.6%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,563.06, up 1.4% (555 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,594.50, up 2.3%</li></ul>Data released Wednesday showed consumer inflation cooled to 2.9% in July, its lowest level in over three years. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-costs-inflation-cpi-consumer-price-index-shelter-real-estate-2024-8#:~:text=Housing%20costs%20are%20the%20big,its%20lowest%20level%20since%202021.?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Sticky housing inflation accounted for 90% of the rise in core CPI</a>, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, making it the biggest factor keeping inflation high as the Fed targets 2%.Investors continue to see a 100% chance that the Fed cuts rates in September, with a 65% chance of 25 basis points and a 36% chance of 50 basis, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.Here's what else happened today:<ul><li>Danish monkeypox-vaccine maker Bavarian Nordic <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/monkeypox-mpox-vaccine-bavarian-nordic-stock-mover-who-emergency-outbreak-2024-8">surged as much as 17%</a> on Thursday after the WHO declared monkeypox a global health emergency.</li><li>Stocks could be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-fed-rate-cuts-bull-market-economy-inflation-2024-8">poised for a 1995-like rally</a> amidst falling inflation and a resilient economy, according to Wells Fargo strategy chief.</li><li>Walmart's stock <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/walmart-sales-inflation-consumers-spending-retail-online-stock-surge-ubs-2024-8">soared as much as 8.4% to all-time highs Thursday</a> after reporting strong sales last quarter, even as consumers pull back on spending in general.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 1% to $76.04 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, ticked higher 0.9% to $79.02 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> traded higher at $2,463.30</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose two basis points to 3.98%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> rose 8% at $59,549.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Dow soars 555 points as strong economic data calms recession worries

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Americans are flocking to the South for jobs, lower taxes, and more affordable housing.</li><li>But by some economic measures, the South has some of the poorest states in the nation.</li></ul>The future of the US economy <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-economy-us-south-texas-florida-houston-dallas-nashville-miami-2023-12">might be in the South</a> — but some states in the region are at risk of being left behind.What constitutes the Southern region of the US is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/south-states-usa-2018-5">up for debate</a>, but the Census Bureau <a target="_blank" href="https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/maps-data/maps/reference/us_regdiv.pdf">defines</a> it as 16 US states — including Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia — plus the District of Columbia.In June, the financial services company WalletHub <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-state-economies-ranking-best-worst-wallethub-washington-utah-massachusetts-2024-6">ranked the 50 states and DC</a> across three categories: economic activity, economic health, and innovation potential. Twenty-eight metrics, including the share of fast-growing firms, the unemployment rate, and entrepreneurial activity, were used in the analysis.Five of the 10 states with the lowest rankings were located in the South: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mississippi-defends-abortion-ban-one-in-three-kids-in-poverty-2021-11">Mississippi</a>, West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Kentucky.Additionally, the six states with the lowest <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-by-metro-area-ranked-san-francisco-seattle-austin-2018-4#40-cleveland-elyria-oh-1">GDP per capita</a> — the size of a state's economy, divided by the number of people living in the state — are all in the South: Mississippi, West Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama, South Carolina, and Kentucky. GDP per capita is one indicator that's used to gauge economic prosperity and living standards across the US — it's calculated using the latest state-level GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and population estimates from the Census Bureau.In some ways, the Southern economy is booming. Cities like Houston, Dallas, Miami, and Nashville could be poised to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-economy-us-houston-dallas-nashville-miami-cities-moving-businesses-2023-11">become economic powerhouses</a> as more companies invest there and create jobs. Additionally, warmer weather, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/save-income-tax-moving-california-florida-new-york-2022-9">lower taxes</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/california-texas-moving-arizona-florida-expensive-housing-costs-washington-nevada-2023-10">cheaper housing</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cities-hiring-the-most-florida-texas-california-job-growth-tech-2024-4">job growth</a> have persuaded many Americans to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/population-boom-south-texas-georgia-dallas-houston-atlanta-movers-homebuyers-2024-3">move South</a> in recent years — boosting the region's labor force and consumer <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-consumption-expenditures-state-2022">spending</a>.However, some economic measures show the South is lagging behind other regions of the US. And even if some of the region's cities and states prosper in the years to come, other areas could miss out on the economic boom.<h2 id="858fbdc9-29ae-4b33-8a5d-210eb5d9b9dd">Workers in Southern states tend to have lower wages</h2>An <a target="_blank" href="https://www.epi.org/publication/rooted-racism-part3/">analysis</a> of 2021 current population survey data published in July by the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank, found that workers in the South earned less than those in other regions.The median Southern worker earned $20.30 an hour, compared to $21.05 in the Midwest, $22.08 in the West, and $23.81 in the Northeast. Additionally, the analysis found that 22% of Southern workers earned less than $15 an hour, compared to 17% in the Midwest, 12% in the Northeast, and 10% in the West.The Economic Policy Institute pointed to low <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/map-the-last-time-each-state-raised-its-minimum-wage-2021-2">minimum wages</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-union-membership-fell-lowest-rate-record-2022-2023-1">unionization rates</a> in Southern states as two factors keeping pay down.Of course, workers in some Southern states earn less than others. In July, the Economic Innovation Group, a centrist think-tank, published an <a target="_blank" href="https://eig.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/TAWP-Kirkegaard.pdf">analysis</a> by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a nonresident fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Using US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the analysis highlighted the average annual wages across US states as of 2022.Mississippi had the second lowest average annual wage in the US at roughly $60,000 — only Hawaii ranked lower. Texas was the only Southern state in the top 10, ranking 8th with an average annual wage of about $80,000.<h2 id="1ecaa78f-0299-48c6-9804-8102c4eabe31">The South's low unemployment rate is misleading</h2>In recent years, the South has had a <a target="_blank" href="https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/regional-morsel-southern-economy-trends.pdf">low</a> unemployment rate compared to other US regions. But an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.epi.org/publication/rooted-racism-part2/#epi-toc-6">analysis</a> published in June by the Economic Policy Institute called the low jobless rate "misleading."That's because only people who are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-263k-payrolls-unemployment-rate-hiring-labor-market-2022-10">actively looking for work</a> are counted in official US unemployment statistics. And there's evidence to suggest many Southerners have given up looking or faced obstacles to employment, Chandra Childers, senior policy and economic analyst at the Economic Policy Institute, wrote in the analysis.As of 2022, the share of people aged 25 to 54 with jobs was lower in the South than the rest of the US, according to the Economic Policy Institute's analysis of Current Population Survey data. That so-called <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-men-working-less-recessions-employment-productivity-2024-4">prime-age employment rate</a> — an oft-cited indicator of labor force strength — was 78.9% in the South, 79.2% in the West, 80.6% in the Northeast, and 81.9% in the Midwest.It's possible these figures could change as more updated data becomes available. But if people in the South are less likely to have jobs than people in other regions, then the region's low unemployment rate doesn't tell the full story.<h2 id="f8b9eb0e-36e7-48fb-9e8e-2275ade9e55e">There are reasons to be optimistic about the South's economy</h2>To be sure, it's not all doom and gloom for the South.A thriving economy needs people to work jobs and spend money, and the South is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/city-metro-population-growth-from-2022-to-2023-florida-2024-3">boosting its population</a> in all sorts of ways.While the US has experienced a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-population-stalled-during-pandemic-slower-than-during-great-depression-2022-1">population slowdown</a> in recent years, the South has the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-economy-us-south-texas-florida-houston-dallas-nashville-miami-2023-12">highest birthrate</a> of any region. And when people are born there, they often don't leave. Eighty-two percent of native-born Texans still resided in the state as of 2021, the highest rate in the US, according to a Dallas Fed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/0829">analysis</a> published in August 2023. North Carolina and Georgia rounded out the top three.Many Americans not born in the South have moved there as well. Between July 2022 and 2023, the states with the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/state-population-growth-declines-map-moving-migration-census-2023-12">largest population growth</a> were all located in the South: Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Only two Southern states — Louisiana and West Virginia — were <a target="_blank" href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-trends-return-to-pre-pandemic-norms.html">among</a> the eight US states that saw their populations decline between 2022 and 2023.Overall, there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about the future of the South's economy. However, it's still a work in progress, and some states are thriving considerably more than others.Have you moved into or out of the South over the past few years and are willing to share why you relocated? Or, are you a Southerner who is willing to talk about the influx of new residents? If so, reach out to this reporter at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:jzinkula@businessinsider.com">jzinkula@businessinsider.com</a>.

You Searched For "economic statistics" and got 7 results

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Taylor Swift's economic clout has now come for Europe

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Stock market today: Dow soars 555 points as strong economic data calms recession worries

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The South's economic boom is masking a harsher reality. It still has several of the poorest states in the nation.

Jacob Zinkula

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