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The pre-budget <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Economic Survey" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Economic Survey">Economic Survey</keyword> on Monday called for urgent reforms in India's <keyword id="19915424" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="agricultural-sector" source="keywords">agricultural sector</keyword>, warning that the structural issues could impede the country's overall <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> trajectory. The survey, tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nirmala-sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword>, highlighted the untapped potential of the <keyword id="20682012" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-agriculture" source="keywords">Indian agriculture</keyword> sector compared to other economies. Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran called for a pan-India dialogue on the agriculture sector. The survey, presented ahead of the annual budget, emphasised that India has yet to fully leverage its agricultural sector for economic growth and job creation, unlike East Asian economies and Western developed nations. "Indian agriculture is not in a crisis now but requires a serious <keyword id="20544318" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="structural-transformation" source="keywords">structural transformation</keyword> because climate change and water criticality loom large in the times to come," the survey stated. The CEA advocated for a reassessment of existing policies, despite current government subsidies and support measures for farmers. "The payoff will be immense if we untie the knots that bedevil farm sector policies," Nageswaran said in the survey's preface. While the government provides substantial support to farmers through subsidies on water, electricity, and fertilizers, along with income tax exemptions and minimum support prices, there is room for improvement in policy implementation, he added. The survey identified several key challenges, including balancing growth with food inflation management, improving price discovery, and addressing land fragmentation. To address these challenges, the survey recommends multi-pronged reforms, which include: upgrading agricultural technology, enhancing marketing avenues, adopting farming innovations, reducing input wastage, and improving the agriculture-industry linkages. The document stressed the need to shift focus from basic <keyword id="19992806" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-security" source="keywords">food security</keyword> to nutritional security, aligning with a 'demand-driven food system' that is both nutritious and environmentally sustainable. The survey suggested that policymakers must strike a delicate balance between incentivizing farmers to increase production and keeping food prices within acceptable limits. "This dual objective requires careful policy interventions." The survey also emphasized the need for a farmer-friendly policy framework to ensure markets function in farmers' interests. It recommended avoiding bans on futures or options markets at the first sign of price spikes; invoking bans only under exceptional circumstances; re-examining the inflation-targeting framework; increasing the total net irrigated area, and aligning farming practices with <keyword id="22505922" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-considerations" source="keywords">climate considerations</keyword>. Looking ahead to 2047, the survey highlighted the potential of agriculture and allied sectors (horticulture, livestock, fisheries, dairy, and food processing) for sustained <keyword id="20268655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment-generation" source="keywords">employment generation</keyword>. "To sustain growth for nearly a generation up to 2047 or more and to ensure that it makes people's lives better and fulfills their aspirations, bottom-up reforms are necessary," it noted. It suggested that India may need to reconsider the traditional development model of transitioning from agriculture to industry and services.

Economic Survey calls for urgent agricultural reforms; cites growth hurdles

As the <keyword id="19938590" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="NDA" source="keywords">NDA</keyword> is all set to form the government, <keyword id="19949381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Fitch-Ratings" source="keywords">Fitch Ratings</keyword> on Thursday said <keyword id="21935526" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="coalition-politics" source="keywords">coalition politics</keyword> and a <keyword id="21957811" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="weakened-mandate" source="Orion">weakened mandate</keyword> could make it challenging to pass legislations on ambitious reforms. "We believe major reforms to land and labour laws will remain on the new government's agenda as it seeks to enhance India's manufacturing sector, but these have long been contentious and the NDA's weaker mandate will complicate their passage further. This could reduce the potential upside to India's medium-term growth prospects," <keyword id="19950093" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fitch" source="keywords">Fitch</keyword> said in a statement. The <keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bjp" source="keywords">BJP</keyword> fell short of a single-party majority in the 543-seat lower house of parliament for the first time since its latest period in government that began in 2014. But Fitch expects it to secure enough support from allied parties in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to form a government with Narendra Modi remaining Prime Minister. The outcome should support broad policy continuity, with the government continuing to prioritise infrastructure capex, improvements to the business environment, and gradual fiscal consolidation, Fitch Ratings said. "However, coalition politics and a weakened mandate could make it challenging to pass legislation on the more ambitious parts of the <keyword id="21957445" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-reform" source="keywords">government reform</keyword> agenda," it said in a detailed note post the Lok Sabha election results which were announced late on Tuesday. The NDA appears set to retain power with a narrower majority after India's recent election, following a weaker performance by its dominant member, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). "We do not think that the government's losses at the ballot box will lead to substantial policy adjustments, but the post-election budget in July should provide greater clarity on its economic reform priorities and fiscal plans over the coming five years," Fitch said. It said implementation of <keyword id="20404815" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-reforms" source="keywords">economic reforms</keyword> during the first two NDA terms was mixed, but some positive measures were passed including the Goods and Services Tax (GST) law and Bankruptcy Code in 2016. The government also increased public infrastructure investment significantly, helping to put India among the fastest-growing major economies in recent years, with real GDP growth reaching 8.2 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 2024 (FY24). Fitch expects growth to remain rapid at 7 per cent in current fiscal (April-March). "We expect India's medium-term growth performance to remain around our trend estimate of 6.2 per cent through FY28, despite the government's slimmer majority. The continued public capex drive to address infrastructure gaps, ongoing digitalisation efforts, and improved bank and corporate balance sheets - relative to the pre-pandemic situation - should facilitate a strong outlook for private investment," Fitch said. The rating agency expects the Production-Linked Incentives (PLI) scheme to remain intact, which will help attract FDI in target sectors, such as electronics. However, private investment has not yet accelerated meaningfully, which represents a risk for the outlook. Fitch believe land and labours laws reforms will continue to advance at the state level in some parts of the country. There is also some potential for judicial reforms that would look to lower costs and speed resolution of court cases. Weaker fiscal metrics relative to peers are a significant constraint for India's sovereign rating, which we affirmed at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook in January 2024. "The next government's ability to address high fiscal deficits and reduce debt will be important considerations for the rating in the next few years. "Sustained deficit reduction, particularly if underpinned by durable revenue-raising reforms, would be positive for India's sovereign rating fundamentals over the medium term," Fitch added. The government has improved its record on achieving deficit targets and has advanced fiscal consolidation gradually over the past few years. We expect this focus on gradual consolidation to broadly be sustained. The FY24 budget deficit came in at 5.6 per cent of GDP, below the revised budget estimate of 5.8 per cent (which matched Fitch's estimate). Fitch expects the 5.1 per cent deficit target for FY25 to be attained, and said government's goal of reducing the deficit to 4.5 per cent of GDP in FY26 appears increasingly achievable, although the election marginally increased risks of higher spending or slippage in capex to accommodate greater social spending.

Coalition politics, weakened mandate could make passing legislations on ambitious reforms challenging: Fitch

Narendra Modi, elected leader of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will take oath as <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s prime minister for a historic third term on Sunday evening at 7:15 PM. After a decade of full majority governance, Modi will now run a <keyword id="20018803" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="coalition-government" source="keywords">coalition government</keyword>, with the Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal (United) as key partners. Despite being in coalition, experts feel that there won't be much change in the new government's economic agenda. Economists believe that <keyword id="20509939" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Modi-3-0" source="keywords">Modi 3.0</keyword> will not slow down the reforms and to achieve the goal of Vikshit Bharat by 2047, <keyword id="20404815" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-reforms" source="keywords">economic reforms</keyword> and policy reviews need to be continued across multiple sectors, including infrastructure, labour, and manufacturing. These reforms are deemed essential to drive economic growth and development in India. "The oft-repeated target of becoming a developed country by 2047 requires far-reaching reforms in the factor market, opening up of the economy and infrastructure development and a thrust towards labour intensive manufacturing. In a coalition environment it may not be easy to carry out big bang reforms, but the thrust of incremental reforms should be in this direction," said M Govind Rao, Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission and former Director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. Economists have noted that spending on <keyword id="20229510" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="populist-measures" source="keywords">populist measures</keyword> will increase because of coalition politics, however, the government will continue with its focus on "<keyword id="20054650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Made-In-India" source="keywords">Made In India</keyword>" reforms. Sectors like infrastructure and manufacturing will remain the priority of the government. "There's likely to be a swerve towards greater populist spending and some commitment of resources to states of alliance partners is also likely. But India's public finances are in relatively robust health and to be augmented by significant reserves from the RBI. India's infrastructure spending will continue apace but perhaps with greater private sector participation. Expenditure on defence modernisation and indigenisation will also undoubtedly continue" said Gautam Sen, retired political economist London School of Economics and author, Former member of the Indo-UK Roundtable and Senior Consultant UNDP. The full budget expected to be announced in July, will reflect the economic agenda of Modi 3.0. Many economists expect the Budget will likely see a spurt in welfare and support schemes mainly for farmers and poor. The Budget will indicate the policy priorities for the new coalition government and decide the growth trajectory for the next five years, On the economic front, economists have cautioned the government about the potential setbacks from a sluggish global economy and geopolitical crisis. "One constraint remains the sluggish world economy, which could suffer worse setbacks next year, though Indian growth has risen despite it. The unknown is the impact of external shocks of intensifying wars and uncertainty over energy prices" added Sen. Meanwhile, in a significant boost to the start of Modi 3.0, the Reserve Bank of India on June 7 revised upwards the <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> projection for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent on rising private consumption and revival of demand in rural areas. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) placed India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24.

Economists expect big bang reforms to continue under Modi 3.0

Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

Union Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> highlighted India's significant progress in electrification, <keyword id="23692737" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="water-accessibility" source="keywords">water accessibility</keyword>, and <keyword id="20879840" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-empowerment" source="keywords">economic empowerment</keyword> during a fireside chat with John J Hamre, President and CEO of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in Washington, DC. Highlighting the progress made in <keyword id="23003732" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-electrification" source="keywords">rural electrification</keyword>, <keyword id="19916494" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sitharaman" source="keywords">Sitharaman</keyword> highlighted that every village in India now has access to electricity. She noted that in 2014, many villages across India, including those near state capitals, lacked even basic infrastructure for electrification. She said "I don't think any village in India is unelectrified today. Households have received the connections. So, if I remember the situation in 2014, there were still many villages in many parts of India, some even very close to the state capital, provincial headquarters, without even a pole to receive the electric wires. Now, all that has been overcome. Houses have got their electricity." The Finance Minister also discussed the <keyword id="19971121" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jal-Jeevan-Mission" source="keywords">Jal Jeevan Mission</keyword>, a program initiated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to provide tap water connections to every household. She explained, "Earlier, one tap water connection was provided to a village, from where everyone would take water to their home. But under the 'Jal Jeevan Mission,' each and every house gets a tap water connection." Sitharaman emphasized the positive impact of this initiative on health, sanitation, and convenience for millions of Indian families. Turning to the economic empowerment of <keyword id="20101496" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="municipalities" source="keywords">municipalities</keyword> and urban centers, Sitharaman noted that these local governments are receiving increased autonomy and financial support. She explained that municipalities receive a portion of taxes collected by the central government, along with additional funds based on the Finance Commission's recommendations. "Over and above, today, we are enhancing their capacities to raise resources from the market. Municipalities are a very powerful instrument of economic development and they, on their own, are raising a lot of resources," she added. Sitharaman also expressed confidence in India's economic growth and its appeal to <keyword id="20632552" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-investors" source="keywords">global investors</keyword>. "The policies are working, reforms are happening, and they shall continue to happen," she stated, adding that "greater liberalisation of the economy will be there and, in a way, we are accessing newer markets and speaking about the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword> in more avenues and platforms that will attract more investors." With ongoing reforms and increased global engagement, Sitharaman noted, India is solidifying its position as a significant player on the world stage, expanding its economic reach and inviting foreign investment.

No village in India left without access to electricity, claims FM Nirmala Sitharaman

New Delhi [India], June 5 (ANI): The Bharatiya Janata Party (<keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bjp" source="keywords">BJP</keyword>)-led National Democratic Alliance (<keyword id="19938590" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDA" source="keywords">NDA</keyword>) secured a majority in the general elections, securing a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This victory indicates continuity in policy, particularly in <keyword id="21785272" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="infrastructure-spending" source="keywords">infrastructure spending</keyword> and boosting domestic manufacturing, which are expected to support robust <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword>. However, the NDA's slim margin of victory and the BJP's loss of an outright majority in parliament may slow down more extensive economic and fiscal reforms, potentially impeding <keyword id="20101140" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-consolidation" source="keywords">fiscal consolidation</keyword> efforts. In fiscal 2023-24, India's real GDP accelerated to 8.2 per cent from 7.0 per cent the previous year, driven by significant gains in gross fixed capital formation as the government's infrastructure programs gained momentum, even as private consumption remained subdued. <keyword id="20227907" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Moodys" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Moody's" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Moody's">Moody's</keyword> projects India's economic strength to continue, with an anticipated real <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> of around 7 per cent over the three-year period from fiscal 2023-24 to 2025-26. This growth is expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure development and digitalization efforts. Despite this outlook, structural weaknesses pose risks to long-term growth potential. High youth unemployment and low productivity growth in the agriculture sector constrain economic expansion. The agricultural sector's modernization has been stalled by political challenges, as evidenced by the repeal of key reforms in 2021 following widespread farmer protests. Additionally, gains in manufacturing have been uneven, limiting labour force diversification away from agriculture, which still accounts for 40 per cent of total employment. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have declined over the past three years, despite a favourable geopolitical climate amid US-China tensions. This trend suggests persistent constraints within India's investment climate. To address these challenges, further structural reforms and enhanced implementation of existing initiatives, such as the production-linked incentive schemes to promote manufacturing, calibrated liberalisation of cross-border trade, and reconsideration of labour reforms, are necessary. The government's focus on fiscal consolidation is expected to continue, but significant improvements in debt ratios and interest servicing have yet to be realised. Since the trough in fiscal 2020-21, the central government's deficit has likely narrowed for three consecutive years. The interim budget for fiscal 2024-25 projects a deficit of around 5 per cent of GDP, aiming for a 4.5 per cent deficit by fiscal 2025-26. However, India's fiscal consolidation post-pandemic has not outpaced other emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, and its fiscal and debt metrics remain weaker than those of Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and other Baa-rated peers globally. India's general government debt is projected to stabilise above 80 per cent of GDP over the next three years, compared to 70.5 per cent in fiscal 2018-19. General government interest payments are forecast to fall to around 24 per cent of general government revenue over the next two years, down from over 28 per cent in fiscal 2020-21, but still higher than the pre-pandemic ratio of less than 23 per cent. While increased budgetary allocations for infrastructure indicate an improvement in spending quality, debt servicing remains a significant portion of expenditure, reflecting ongoing constraints on fiscal flexibility. This situation underscores the need for the incoming government to balance fiscal consolidation with growth-supportive measures. The upcoming final budget for the fiscal year ending March 2025 will provide further insights into India's fiscal policy direction through 2029. As the Modi administration embarks on its third term, the focus will likely remain on sustaining economic growth while addressing the persistent <keyword id="21500054" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-challenges" source="keywords">fiscal challenges</keyword> that hinder India's long-term economic potential.

Modi 3.0 will offer policy continuity, but BJP's loss of outright majority may slow down fiscal reforms: Moody's

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's stock markets slumped after a 10-day rally that was driven by Beijing's stimulus announcement in September.</li><li>Investors were disappointed when a hyped-up Chinese government press briefing failed to deliver more stimulus.</li></ul>China's top leadership has a problem with its economic stimulus: its own investors at home saw right through the hype this week.China's domestic stock markets slumped on Wednesday after a 10-day blitz culminated in a two-year high.The mainland's benchmark CSI 300 Index closed 7.1% lower, while leading indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen ended the day 6.6% and 8.7% lower.China's domestic stock markets are dominated by over 200 million mom-and-pop retail investors, who account for about <a target="_blank" href="https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/sg/en/thinking/articles/2024/q2/chinas-economy-enters-a-new-cycle-unveiling-fresh-opportunities-apac.html">70% of the trading volume.</a> so market movements reflect ground sentiment.The markets were boosted in late September after a stimulus announcement by the People's Bank of China. The CSI 300 index closed nearly 20% higher year-to-date before weeklong National Day public holidays. The markets reopened on Tuesday and ended higher, though that morning's immediate bump cooled off during the trading day.The rally fizzled because China's National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planner, lined up a highly anticipated press conference on the first working day after weeklong public holidays. But the commission did not introduce more stimulus measures, which dragged market sentiment.<h2 id="24dd9538-5d55-451b-902a-d6d1deb152fc">China watchers are more optimistic</h2>It looks like China's investors are less optimistic than market watchers elsewhere. Those abroad are expressing more confidence in the world's second-largest economy and seeing the bright side in this week's losses.Since the commission is actually responsible for implementation rather than funding initiatives, most analysts weren't expecting much stimulus in the first place.Some professionals even view this week's stock losses positively. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index — dominated by institutional investors — ended the day down 1.4%, extending Tuesday's 9.5% slump. The index is 9.3% lower so far this week."We believe a pullback following a 36% rally in less than a month may be healthy in allowing market participants to reassess recent policy developments, while providing entry points for new investors and creating more balanced market participation," wrote Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at trading platform IG, in a Wednesday note about the Hong Kong market.Instead of harping on market jitters, economists are now pointing to Beijing's political commitment to improving the economy."To be sure, there may still be an expectations gap as announcements fall short of loftier expectations. But that's not as damaging as market misgivings about Beijing getting stimulus cold feet," Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho's macro research head for Asia excluding Japan, wrote in a note on Wednesday.After the initial stimulus announcement on September 24, China's top leaders swiftly pledged support for the economy, including in the beleaguered property market.According to Xinhua state news agency, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202410/08/WS6705253aa310f1265a1c6860.html">Chinese Premier Li Qiang</a> called on the country to implement economic stabilization measures on Tuesday."There is a case to be made that Beijing's initial pronouncements of boosting the equity market, supporting housing unequivocally are sound commitments," wrote Varathan. He said that China is already in the midst of a hard landing — and Beijing knows it."And so, Beijing is now fully invested in efforts to extricate the economy holistically," he wrote.Economists are waiting for more meaningful support measures."We expect a fiscal package to be announced in coming weeks, including demand-boosting stimulus on consumption and investment, as well as further enhancement of social security, healthcare, and birth encouragement," wrote Hele Qiao, the Greater China chief economist and head of Asia economics research at BofA Global Research, on Tuesday.Qiao expects an announcement after the next meeting of China's top legislature, which typically takes place any time from mid-October to early November. The exact date will only be announced a week or two before the meeting.

The markets saw right through China's latest economic support hype

India’s political landscape is increasingly being defined by the troubling nexus between crime and politics. A study has highlighted a startling correlation: the election of politicians with criminal records is directly linked to a rise in crime across the country, particularly in states with weaker institutional frameworks. As India's political system continues to grapple with this issue, the societal consequences are becoming clear. <h2>A history of <keyword id="23341122" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="criminal-politicians" source="keywords">criminal politicians</keyword></h2><keyword id="21026899" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Pappu-Yadav" source="keywords">Pappu Yadav</keyword>, a veteran politician from Bihar, serves as a prime example of this disturbing trend. Having represented his constituency for nearly 25 years, Yadav has faced 41 criminal cases, including serious accusations of murder and kidnapping. Despite his conviction in 2008, Yadav was acquitted in 2013, and he continues to hold political influence. His case is not unique; the political scene in states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh is littered with politicians facing multiple criminal charges. Anant Singh, another prominent figure from Bihar, holds a political career shadowed by 38 criminal cases, including murder, kidnapping, and attempts to murder. These individuals represent a broader pattern where politicians accused of serious crimes continue to serve in public office despite their criminal backgrounds. "They are getting elected, and over time the number has only been going up," remarks lead author Nishith Prakash. "In some states, it could be as high as almost 40% of people who are representing the state have some kind of a criminal accusation." <h2>Crime begets crime</h2>The research delves into the ramifications of electing criminally accused politicians. The study found that states with a higher number of such politicians also experienced increased <keyword id="22044507" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crime-rates" source="keywords">crime rates</keyword>. For example, states like Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Odisha, and Uttar Pradesh, known for their historically weak institutions, have seen crime rise by 4.3% annually with the election of criminal politicians. The number increases to 5.8% when the politicians are accused of serious crimes like murder and kidnapping. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113692670" title="What will it take for Kangana Ranaut’s &amp;#39;Emergency&amp;#39; to finally hit theatres?" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Prakash notes that weak rule of law and institutional failure create fertile ground for such politicians to not only rise to power but also exacerbate the deteriorating law-and-order situation. When politicians themselves are involved in criminal activities, they often manipulate legal and administrative systems, further weakening law enforcement and emboldening criminal networks. The reign of <keyword id="20122630" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lalu-prasad-yadav" source="keywords">Lalu Prasad Yadav</keyword>, president of the Rashtriya Janata Dal political party in Bihar, illustrates the adverse impact criminal politicians can have. Under his leadership, Bihar’s political environment devolved into what is now infamously known as "Jungle Raj," a period marked by rampant kidnappings for ransom, particularly targeting affluent individuals like doctors and schoolchildren. The researchers note that during this time, the kidnapping industry flourished as criminals enjoyed either direct or indirect support from the state. <h2><keyword id="22404298" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="impact-on-women" source="keywords">Impact on women</keyword> and <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword></h2>Beyond the immediate rise in general crime rates, the study revealed alarming statistics regarding crimes against women. Electing criminally accused politicians was found to increase crimes against women by 12.6%. In states where such politicians held office, female labour force participation dropped by 10-11%, as women felt unsafe and chose not to engage in work outside their homes. The research also highlighted the economic toll criminal politicians take on their constituencies. Areas represented by politicians accused of serious crimes saw economic growth lag between 2.3% and 6.5% per year compared to other regions. These leaders often misappropriate public funds, divert resources for personal gain, and enable criminal enterprises, all of which stifle local development. <h2>Legal measures taken</h2>India has made strides in identifying and tracking criminally accused politicians. A landmark 2003 ruling by the <keyword id="19895345" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Supreme-Court" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Supreme Court" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Supreme Court">Supreme Court</keyword> mandated that candidates for political office must disclose their criminal records, making it easier for voters and institutions to scrutinise their backgrounds. However, the law only disqualifies convicted individuals from running for office, allowing accused politicians to continue their political careers while facing serious charges. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113446721" title="It&amp;#39;s not just the rhetoric — apathy and jokes could be fueling a spiral of retaliatory political violence, expert warns" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>The research conducted by Prakash and his team has caught the attention of Indian courts and the Election Commission. While reform is slow, there is growing recognition that the quality of political leadership has a profound impact on societal outcomes, from crime rates to economic performance. "The quality of politicians matters," Prakash notes. "Who you elect has implications on outcomes that we care about. It could be economic growth, it could be crime against women, it could be labour force participation. These are very important outcomes for society and the economy." The findings of this research have been published in Journal of Law Economics and Organization and can be accessed <a href="https://docs.iza.org/dp15259.pdf">here</a>.

Not only does electing “criminal” politicians often lead to an increase in crime in India, it can also be terrible for the economy: study

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China is expected to announce extra fiscal policy support on Saturday.</li><li>Analysts expect $283 billion worth of stimulus to be pledged, Bloomberg reported.</li></ul>Financial markets in China are waiting for Beijing to finally provide fiscal stimulus at a scheduled announcement on Saturday, the key ingredient missing in its latest push to shore up China's economy.Finance Minister Lan Fo'an is set to announce a fresh consumer-focused boost this weekend — or at least that's what investors hope will happen.According to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-10/china-investors-expect-283-billion-of-new-stimulus-this-weekend">Bloomberg</a> survey, most analysts expect authorities to pledge $283 billion of fiscal stimulus at Saturday's highly anticipated press conference. Expected measures could include consumption vouchers, improved social safety nets, and subsidies on specific products.Analysts have long agreed that China's stubbornly low domestic demand is the crux of the country's economic problems, and many <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-stimulus-stock-market-consumer-deflation-outlook-real-estate-2024-9">were disappointed to see measures</a> in Beijing's latest stimulus package fail to address the issue. Some commentators suggest this is partly due to the leadership's ideology, which seems to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/paul-krugman-china-economy-xi-jinping-stimulus-republican-communist-recovery-2023-9">disapprove of welfare and direct consumer aid</a>.In its latest stimulus package unveiled in late September, the country instead delivered interest rate cuts, a lower reserve ratio requirement for banks, a stock stabilization fund, and mortgage support in the housing sector.The September 24 announcement surprised global investors, sending Chinese stocks on a roller coaster rally. The <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/csi-300">CSI 300 Index</a> roared up 27%, investors saw the efforts as an inflection point in the country's recovery and expected more to come.However, momentum fizzled this week after Beijing failed to meet the market's expectations. Though China's National Development and Reform Commission announced further support policies on Tuesday, investors were disappointed by the lack of another major boost.The CSI 300 index fell over 7% the next day. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-09/china-finance-minister-to-brief-on-fiscal-policy-on-oct-12">Chinese authorities followed up by announcing </a>Saturday's press conference, which promised to introduce new measures centered on fiscal policy.It remains to be seen how far Beijing actually goes in bolstering consumers. Some analysts remain less sure about what fiscal stimulus will actually achieve on its own, pointing out that Beijing needs to pursue structural reforms to revive consumer confidence."Fiscal policy could have a role to play in tackling some of the structural imbalances, but this would be as part of a long-term re-orientation of government priorities, not a one-off package," wrote Mark Williams, Capital Economics Chief Asia Economist.For instance, that could take the form of improved healthcare and retirement policies that encourage Chinese consumers to save less, Yale economist <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-outlook-stimulus-fiscal-consumer-support-deflation-stephen-roach-2024-10">Stephen Roach previously wrote</a>.Meanwhile, one expert suggested that investors are misunderstanding China's intent in providing the stimulus boosts. According to Arthur Kroeber, founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, Beijing's intent isn't to accelerate the economy by enabling consumers, but simply to stabilize it."The economic aims are to stabilize growth and prevent deflation from tightening its grip," he wrote in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/008443cd-bb44-4b4f-b60e-17894fdba221">Financial Times</a>. "The market goal is to restore enough confidence so that equity prices post steady, moderate rises. This will reopen the window for new listings and enable the stock market to resume its assigned role of financing China's industrial policy ambitions."

China is trying to give investors the one major thing missing from its economic stimulus blitz 

<ul><li>The Indian economy is expected to grow at over 7% rate in upcoming years</li><li>Fiscal deficit down to 6.4% of <keyword id="19904293" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="keywords">GDP</keyword> in FY24</li><li>Current Account Deficit (CAD) down to 0.7% of GDP </li></ul>With the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> 2024 to be presented tomorrow, Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> is presenting the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> in the parliament today. Think of the <keyword id="6354872" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-survey" source="Orion">Economic Survey</keyword> as a report card of the country's economic performance over the past year, along with inputs and outlook for the coming fiscal year. Here are some crucial highlights from the Economic Survey 2023-24: <h2>Macro-economic indicators</h2>Per the World Economic Outlook in April, the <keyword id="19948494" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-economic-growth" source="keywords">global economic growth</keyword> was pegged at 3.2% in 2023. In contrast, <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s real GDP grew by 8.2% in FY24, staying above the 8% mark for 3 out of 4 quarters in FY24. Gross Fixed Capital Formation, or investments in long-term, value-generating fixed assets increased by 9% real terms in 2023-24. The government trimmed down fiscal deficit trimmed down from 6.4% of GDP in FY23 to 5.6% of GDP in FY24.The current account deficit, which indicates that the country is a net importer rather than being an exporter, came down to 0.7% of GDP in FY24, as opposed to 2% of GDP in FY23. While retail inflation averaged at 6.7% in FY23, it dropped down to 5.4% in FY24 During FY24, primary markets saw capital formation, or facilitated raising funds worth Rs 10.9 lakh crore, which makes up for around 29% of the gross fixed capital formation. India's market capitalization to GDP ratio is the fifth largest in the world. <h2>Inflationary Trends </h2>Core inflation eased down to 9-year lows, while core goods inflation came down to a 4-year low. However, food inflation continued to stay high, inching up to 7.5% in FY24, as opposed to 6.6% in FY23. This was largely because of adverse weather conditions, which caused a spike in onion and tomato prices and impacted kharif crop production. Going ahead, RBI's short-term outlook remains positive. Assuming a normal monsoon and no extraordinary policy or geopolitical shocks, the inflation is estimated to drop to 4.5% in FY25, and further down to 4.1% in FY26. These are in line with IMF's inflation forecasts, which stand at 4.6% for 2024 and 4.2% for 2025. <h2>Export-Import trends</h2>India's service exports jumped by 4.9% to $341.1 billion in FY24, driven mainly by IT and software services. Apart from being the top remittance recipient globally, with remittances worth $120 billion in 2023, the country also witnessed investment inflows from foreign investors. As of March 2024, India's forex reserves were sufficient to cover over 10 months of projected imports in FY25, and about 98% of all its external debt. The country's external debt to GDP ratio has been largely consistent over the years, standing at 18.7% of the GDP as of March 2024. <h2>Key growth areas to look out for in FY25 </h2>Essential to adopt bottom-up reform approach, with special short to medium term emphasis on structural changes, job and skill creation, addressing challenges faced by MSMEs, managing India's transition towards a green, clean economy, deepening the country's nascent bond market and laying greater stress on tackling quality of health, especially amongst young Indians. Deliberate focus needed on boosting private investment, expanding India's MSMEs, tapping into the potential of India's agriculture sector, manage India's green transition, urgently bridge the employment-education gap and build capacity of states to sustain and complement India's growth. In the medium term, the country's economy is expected to grow at a rate of over 7%.

Economic Survey 2024: GDP grew by 8.2%, to sustain 7%+ growth momentum, fiscal deficit down to 6.4% of GDP

<ul class="summary-list"><li>America is facing a labor shortage problem as the population declines and more boomers retire.</li><li>Research Affiliates CIO Chris Brightman believes immigration reform is needed to boost the economy.</li></ul>Immigration is a hot political topic right now. But to one chief investment officer, immigration policy isn't a matter of political debate — it's an economic nonnegotiable.Chris Brightman, CEO and chief investment officer of the $147 billion investment manager Research Affiliates, believes immigration reform is long overdue — and billions of dollars are at stake if no action is taken.With an aging population and declining birthrate posing a significant economic risk in coming years, the US must take the necessary steps to boost immigration and economic productivity, Brightman wrote in a research note.<h2 id="d07da37b-d90a-4ec0-8bc0-42e235085dac">The depopulation issue</h2>Declining birth rates are causing a drag on many of the world's biggest economies, and the US is no exception.Fertility rates in the US are hovering around 1.6 children per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1, which means that natural US population growth is stagnating.According to Brightman, this is a big threat to US economic health. A declining population brings with it a declining labor force. With few workers and an increasingly aging population, programs like Social Security and Medicare become strained.Government initiatives to boost declining fertility rates aren't the answer, Brightman argues. Financial incentives in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan haven't raised fertility rates. Benefits offered by European countries such as paid parental leave and subsidized childcare have also failed to raise fertility rates.As seen in the graph below, US population growth is projected to trend negative in the coming years without additional inflows from immigration.<div type="image" title="Immigration rejuvenates population growth." height="691" width="942" msid="113937812" hostid="261" sizebytes="26162"></div><h2 id="cd3554fc-a73c-4f34-879d-067f5184864e">More immigration is the answer</h2>Brightman points out that immigrants have a long track record of driving productivity and innovation in the US economy. Immigrants have won 40% of all Nobel Prizes awarded to Americans since 2000 and originated a disproportionate number of US patents. Over half of US unicorns, or startups valued at over $1 billion, are founded by immigrants.Beyond these accomplishments, immigrants are necessary to bolster the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-indicators-jobs-pre-pandemic-levels-healthy-goldman-sachs-2024-10">US labor market</a>. As <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-retirement-cities-buy-home-baby-boomers-florida-north-carolina-2024-10">baby boomers enter retirement</a>, they're leaving behind unfilled job openings — a trend that began in 2010 and has only continued to worsen. There are currently more job openings than unemployed workers.<div type="image" title="More unfilled jobs than employed workers" height="631" width="942" msid="113937813" hostid="261" sizebytes="22280"></div>With a declining population growth rate and an increase of workers aging out of the workforce, increased skilled immigration is the ideal solution to prevent economic decline, in Brightman's view.<h2 id="24a88d05-7dcb-4bb3-b7a2-af31cfd4efd1">Immigration policy solutions</h2>Brightman sees the need for more friendly immigration policies such as providing permanent residency to immigrants who graduate from US universities.Admitting more computer scientists, engineers, doctors, accountants, educators, and other skilled professionals would greatly help the US labor shortage. Brightman highlights that the economy especially needs more healthcare workers and skilled tradespeople.Countries like Canada, New Zealand, and Australia use a point system with selection criteria such as education, professional skills, and language. Brightman believes the US can emulate this immigration model.One popular reform proposed by policymakers is to exempt immigrants with advanced STEM degrees from statutory limits on the number of green cards granted per year. According to an analysis by the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), such a proposal would boost the US population by 825,000 in the next 10 years and by over 2.5 million in the next 20 years.This proposal will not only fill gaps in the labor market but also significantly reduce the federal deficit in the next two decades, according to PWBM.An increased number of immigrants leads to increased tax revenues. PWBM estimates that if green card limits were lifted for immigrants with STEM degrees, the US government would see an extra $133 billion in revenues with only a $4 billion increase in outlays for a net deficit reduction of $129 billion.The effect would be even more dramatic by 2044, with $708 billion in tax revenue and $74 billion in outlays for a $634 billion reduction in the deficit.Immigration has a reputation for being a polarizing topic, but Brightman sees such a proposal as a necessary policy that'll tackle one of the biggest challenges facing the US economy.

You Searched For "economic reforms" and got 11 results

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Not only does electing “criminal” politicians often lead to an increase in crime in India, it can also be terrible for the economy: study

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