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India’s Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), <keyword id="20690607" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="V-Anantha-Nageswaran" source="keywords">V Anantha Nageswaran</keyword>, remains optimistic about the nation’s economic prospects despite a slower-than-expected <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> in the second quarter of FY2024-25. Speaking at the Bharat @100 Summit hosted by Assocham, he said that the fundamental health of the economy remains robust, according to a report by aNI. Nageswaran highlighted several indicators demonstrating the economy’s resilience. “If you run through the checklist for the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword>, the health is pretty robust,” he noted, pointing to controlled levels of external debt as a share of GDP, declining non-performing assets in the banking system, and stable inflation trends. Although certain food items have caused inflationary spikes, their impact is limited within the overall consumer price index basket, he explained. The CEA praised the shift in fiscal expenditure priorities over the past seven years, with greater focus on capital investments rather than revenue spending. This reallocation, he suggested, has bolstered long-term economic stability and growth potential. India’s GDP growth for the July-September quarter was 5.4%, significantly below the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 7%. While this has sparked concerns among economists, Nageswaran urged against overreacting. Erratic monsoons and excessive rainfall disrupted economic activity in Q2, he explained, while global uncertainties and supply chain pressures further weighed on growth. Despite these challenges, he maintained confidence in the broader growth narrative, citing improvements in key economic metrics. For instance, India’s gross capital formation has risen from 27.3% of GDP in the second decade of the 2000s to 30.8% today. Private consumption remains steady, and exports—spanning both services and manufacturing—continue to perform well even amid challenging global conditions. Nageswaran also underscored India’s growing competitiveness in international trade. He noted that the nation’s total <keyword id="24325087" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports-as-a-percentage-of-GDP" source="keywords">exports as a percentage of GDP</keyword> now surpass China’s, showcasing its resilience and adaptability in a shifting global trade environment. However, he cautioned against reading too much into quarterly fluctuations, highlighting the impact of geopolitical developments such as trade restrictions from the US on critical minerals and rare earths, as well as policy shifts in China. These external factors, he suggested, are likely to persist and may continue influencing short-term economic trends. (with ANI inputs)

Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

India's services sector showed robust expansion in October, per the <keyword id="22267674" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HSBC-India-Services-PMI" source="keywords">HSBC India Services PMI</keyword> (Purchasing Managers' Index), which rose to 58.5 last month, up from September's ten-month low of 57.7. October's figures managed to exceed even the long-run PMI average of 54.1, largely on the back of a strong sales pipeline and elevated demand. Employment, or job creation in this sector accelerated to its fastest growth rate in 26 months. Anticipating solid, sustained demand in the near term, firms added new employees at the most rapid pace in over 2 years. October also saw <keyword id="23834175" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="input-costs-rise" source="keywords">input costs rise</keyword> at their fastest pace in 3 months, indicating renewed demand and economic activity in the country. The ISM Services PMI, an indicator of the economic health of the US, also exceeded expectations, reaching 56.0 compared to the forecasted 53.8, suggesting strong growth within the services sector. "During October, the Indian services sector experienced strong expansions in output and consumer demand, as well as job creation, which achieved a 26-month high," said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC. The sector saw increased business activity across multiple fronts, with export sales showing significant growth and companies reporting stronger demand from international markets including Africa, Asia, the Americas, the Middle East, and the UK. However, industry experts remain cautiously optimistic about the sector's prospects. Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist at Acuité Ratings &amp; Research, noted that while the October recovery is promising, several factors warrant careful monitoring. “The recovery in the PMI indices in October 2024 is promising for the second half of the fiscal after the dip in several high-frequency indicators in September 2024. Industrial and service activity has expectedly received a boost from the anticipated spike in consumption demand in Q3 FY25, driven by the festivities and the marriage season," she said. Chowdhury added that it will be crucial to monitor the sustainability of these PMI indices at these elevated levels, given the reported weakness in urban demand in Q2 as flagged by FMCG companies. She also noted that potential increases in wholesale and core retail inflation, combined with higher input costs and wage pressures, could delay expected interest rate cuts. RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also noted that inflation and CPI figures for October might be elevated, pushing ahead any chances of interest rate cuts in the near future. Acuité Ratings &amp; Research maintains its GDP growth forecast at 7.0% for FY25 while acknowledging the multiple downside risks that will require close observation in the coming months.

India's Services Index jumps to 58.5 in October as employment grows the fastest in 26 months

In an era where <keyword id="19904566" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="artificial-intelligence" source="keywords">artificial intelligence</keyword> (<keyword id="6355999" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AI" source="Orion">AI</keyword>) has permeated various facets of our lives, it's no surprise that its integration into the job market has become a topic of heated discussion worldwide. Many fear that AI might replace human jobs, but the reality is, if utilised effectively, it can actually propel one's career to new heights — starting with securing more <keyword id="20376375" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="job-interviews" source="keywords">job interviews</keyword>. Recent research published in the journal <keyword id="21618401" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Oxford-Economic-Papers" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Oxford Economic Papers" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Oxford Economic Papers">Oxford Economic Papers</keyword> sheds light on the significant impact of <keyword id="21618400" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AI-knowledge" source="keywords">AI knowledge</keyword> on <keyword id="20865698" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="job-prospects" source="keywords">job prospects</keyword> in the UK. Conducted by researchers from Anglia Ruskin University (ARU), the study revealed that graduates with experience in artificial intelligence are more likely to receive job interviews and command higher salaries. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="The consequential AI capital" comment="subhead" text="The consequential AI capital">The consequential <keyword id="21618399" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AI-capital" source="keywords">AI capital</keyword></cmsannotation> The experiment involved matched pairs of applicants, each comprising one candidate with AI knowledge and another without, submitting their CVs for various job openings. Despite the CVs being largely similar, applicants with AI capital, indicated by completion of an "AI in business" module, garnered a remarkable advantage. Male applicants with AI capital received interview invitations 54% of the time, compared to 28% for those without. Similarly, female applicants with AI knowledge received interview invitations 50% of the time, as opposed to 32% without. Moreover, applicants with AI qualifications, regardless of gender, were offered jobs with wages averaging 12-13% higher than those without such credentials. This trend was particularly pronounced in larger firms, where candidates with AI capital were 36 percentage points more likely to secure interviews. “Our study clearly indicates that employers value AI knowledge and skills among job applicants. Those applicants with AI capital were significantly more likely to be invited to interview and were also more likely to have access to better paid jobs,” said lead author, Professor Nick Drydakis. He attributed this trend to the transformative effects of AI on the workforce, which has even prompted firms to prioritise candidates with AI skills to meet evolving demands. Further, he emphasised the value placed by employers on AI knowledge, highlighting its potential to enhance business operations and productivity. These findings indicate that embracing AI as an ally rather than a threat can open doors to myriad opportunities in the job market. By acquiring AI knowledge, individuals can position themselves as valuable assets to employers and navigate the changing landscape of work with confidence. The study was recently published in the journal Oxford Economic Papers and can be accessed <a href="https://academic.oup.com/oep/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/oep/gpae005/7633941">here</a>.

Having AI knowledge might increase your chances of landing job interviews, UK study finds!

India's retail inflation is projected to surge to 6.15% in October, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance threshold of 6%, according to a new report by Union Bank of India. The spike is attributed to persistent <keyword id="21013592" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-price-pressures" source="keywords">food price pressures</keyword> and the waning of favorable base effects from the previous year. Earlier this month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also echoed similar sentiments and noted that the inflation print for October 2024 could stay well above 5.5%. This is why, as Das highlighted, cutting interest rates as early as December would be very early and premature The <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) data for October, which will be released at 4 pm on Tuesday, as opposed to the previous practice of releasing this data at 5:30 pm on the 12th of every month, follows September's inflation reading of 5.49%, up from 3.65% in August 2024. The last time inflation breached the RBI's upper limit was in August 2023. Despite the RBI's anticipation of an October inflation "hump," the Union Bank report suggests that the magnitude of the increase might raise concerns, particularly as November's figures are also tracking at elevated levels. The bank maintains its forecast of unchanged interest rates in December's monetary policy meeting, with a modest 50 basis points rate cut cycle predicted to begin in February 2025. Food inflation remains a key driver of price pressures, with vegetables and edible oils leading the recent surge. In September 2024, India's YoY food inflation rate hit 9.24%, up from 5.66% in the month prior. However, the report projects some easing of food inflation in the January-March quarter, citing typical winter price moderation and improving prospects for rabi crops. Despite this, potential risks from food supply disruptions, imported edible oil prices, and the impact of potential trade tariff hikes will exist. The RBI, which aims to maintain retail inflation at 4%, has held the repo rate steady at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive time in its last meeting as part of its inflation containment strategy. A recent SBI report also noted that expecting rate cuts in this quarter would be immature, and easing was possible only during the first half of 2025. "Given the current estimates of FY25 real GDP growth at 7.2% and CPI at 4.50%, the RBI would quite possibly keep policy rates stable over the coming quarter at least. Emerging trends in the growth outlook would possibly determine the timing and extent of any policy easing. With near-term CPI numbers likely to stay elevated, it’s premature to consider expectations of any easing in the December review. "However, high-frequency data do validate a softness in growth data on an incremental basis. Given the anticipated aligning of CPI closer to the target over H2, a shallow easing, if any can be a reasonable possibility over H1 of CY 25", it added.

Retail inflation expected to breach 6% mark in October, says UBI Report

<keyword id="30859" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Loneliness" source="Orion">Loneliness</keyword>, often dismissed as a fleeting emotion, carries profound implications for mental, emotional and physical well-being. Its silent grip extends far beyond mere solitude, leaving individuals vulnerable to a plethora of negative consequences by infiltrating every aspect of their lives. And by every aspect, we mean every aspect — even professional. New research from the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology &amp; Neuroscience (IoPPN) at <keyword id="199591" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kings-College-London" source="Orion">King's College London</keyword>, in partnership with the University of Greenwich, has uncovered a direct socioeconomic impact of loneliness in <keyword id="20997290" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="early-adolescence" source="Orion">early adolescence</keyword>. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="A long-term impact" comment="subhead" text="A long-term impact">A long-term impact</cmsannotation> Lonely young adults are more prone to being disengaged from education or employment and perceive themselves as less employable, according to the study published in the journal Social Science and Medicine recently. As a consequence, such individuals tend to get positioned lower on the economic ladder compared to their less lonely counterparts. Findings revealed that young adults who grappled with loneliness earlier in life encountered challenges in their <keyword id="10385025" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="young-adulthood" source="Orion">young adulthood</keyword>, irrespective of their current loneliness status. This underscores the long-term economic implications of loneliness and the potential economic benefits of addressing loneliness during early adolescence. Researchers emphasise that <keyword id="20997291" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="early-life-loneliness" source="Orion">early-life loneliness</keyword> not only impacts an individual's ability to thrive in the job market, but also imposes direct costs on the economy. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="A comprehensive study" comment="subhead" text="A comprehensive study">A comprehensive study</cmsannotation> This research drew from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, tracking 2,232 individuals born in England and Wales during 1994-1995. Over time, participants were evaluated at ages 12, 18 and 26 for loneliness levels, while also being asked to rate their social status. Employment status and employability were then gauged at age 18. Prior studies have hinted at a two-way relationship between loneliness and <keyword id="790616" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="social-standing" source="Orion">social standing</keyword>. However, by leveraging longitudinal data, this research revealed that while loneliness adversely influenced future social standing, social standing did not affect future loneliness levels The study's proponents advocate for further longitudinal investigations to unravel the enduring repercussions of loneliness at various life stages, as this could offer invaluable insights for devising preventative strategies. Ultimately, alleviating loneliness in children and young adults could yield dividends not only for their employment prospects, but also for the broader economy and society at large.

Loneliness during young adulthood affects future job prospects and social standing, study finds

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's economy is growing but headed for big trouble, researchers wrote in a recent article. </li><li>They pointed to Russia's outsized military spending, which has come at the cost of its private sector.</li></ul>Russia's wartime economic boom is masking much deeper problems, according to a group of researchers.The authors of a recent article, who hail from institutions including the Yale School of Management, the Wharton School, the Carnegie Endowment, and the Kyiv School of Economics, cast a stark warning for Russia's economic situation despite the nation posting strong growth numbers since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.Russia's economy is expected to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/RUS">expand another 2.4% this year</a>, according to figures from the International Monetary Fund. However, much of that growth stems from the Kremlin's wild spending spree, and Russia's economy is hindered by a number of problems that could set it up for trouble in the long run, the researchers said."The reality of Russia's economic situation is far more complex and concerning than some would have you believe. The productive core of the Russian economy has been severely compromised," the group wrote in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fortune.com/europe/2024/08/19/an-economic-catastrophe-is-lurking-beneath-russias-gdp-growth-as-putin-throws-everything-into-the-fireplace/">an op-ed for Fortune</a> this week.Russia has been spending heavily on its military and defense sectors, setting a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-putin-ukraine-war-military-spending-budget-kremlin-inflation-2023-10">record military budget for 2024</a>. But that spending has come at a cost to Russia's private sector, some economists say, with other areas of its economy being slammed by a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-lacks-workers-ukraine-war-labor-crisis-worker-shortage-2023-12">severe shortage of workers</a> as resources get funneled into Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Private firms are showing signs they're unable to keep up with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-war-spending-casualties-manpower-mobilization-labor-shortage-inflation-2024-8">consumer demand</a>. That imbalance has caused <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-war-economy-boosts-wages-salaries-beat-inflation-labor-crunch-2024-2">wages</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-inflation-outlook-ukraine-war-gas-prices-oil-sales-2024-7">inflation</a> to spiral in the nation, prompting central bankers in Russia to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russian-central-bank-hikes-rates-by-200-bps-18-highest-more-than-two-years-2024-07-26/#:~:text=MOSCOW%2C%20July%2026%20(Reuters),an%20overheated%20economy%20come%20down.">hike interest rates to 18% in July.</a>"Simply put, Putin's administration has prioritized military production over all else in the economy, at substantial cost," the researchers wrote. Higher borrowing costs could spell trouble for Russian consumers, who are increasingly burdened by debt. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/russia/household-debt--of-nominal-gdp">Household debt</a> accounted for 20% of Russia's total GDP at the end of the first quarter, according to CEIC data. Higher interest rates, in that backdrop, could set the nation up for a "looming crisis," the researchers added.Meanwhile, Russia's finances aren't squaring, partly because the nation is taking in less money from its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-energy-revenue-crude-oil-prices-gas-exports-sanctions-ukraine-2024-1">oil and gas trade. </a>The nation is running a 2% budget deficit — which is "significant" by Russia's standards, the researchers added. "In conclusion, the apparent resilience of the Russian economy is largely illusory, built on a precarious foundation of unsustainable government spending and short-term market factors," the researchers wrote. "A looming economic catastrophe driven by the fundamental flaws in Russia's current strategy will likely set the stage for severe long-term consequences that will play out in the years ahead," they added.Experts have warned of a dire future for Russia as it drags its economy through a third year of war. On the extreme end, forecasters are calling for the nation to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-collapse-recession-moscow-ukraine-war-us-dollar-energy-2024-7">enter a severe recession</a>, with most experts agreeing that the nation has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-real-situation-economist-ukraine-war-sanctions-growth-inflation-2023-11">poor prospects for long-term growth</a>.

Russia's economic growth is masking a looming 'economic catastrophe,' researchers say

<ul><li>US stocks traded mostly lower on Monday following the release of strong economic data.</li><li>The ISM manufacturing index rose to 50.3 in March, representing the first monthly expansion since 2022.</li><li>The data poured cold water on hopes for interest rate cuts in June.</li></ul>Stocks dropped and bond yields spiked on Monday after solid economic data poured cold water on hopes of a June interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.Manufacturing activity as measured by the ISM Index jumped to 50.3 in March, well ahead of expectations. The data represented the first monthly expansion in manufacturing since 2022. Component prices also shot up in the ISM report, raising concerns about stubborn inflation.If inflation reaccelerates, the Fed would likely err on the side of caution and postpone its planned interest rate cuts. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in June <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-fed-rate-cut-ism-bond-yields-june-inflation-pce-2024-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fell below 50%</a> immediately following the ISM report, according to data from Bloomberg.Prospects for a June interest rate cut were initially higher on Monday <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-first-rate-cut-outlook-june-inflation-data-pce-index-2024-3?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">as investors reacted to Friday's release of PCE inflation data,</a> which was in line with expectations.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Monday: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,243.77, down 0.2%</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,566.85, down 0.6% (241 points)</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq Composite</a>: 16,396.83, up 0.1%</li></ul>Here's what else happened today: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-shares-donald-trump-media-plunged-18-financial-liabilities-tmtg-2024-4">Trump Media stock dropped 26% on Monday</a> after the company released updated financial data that showed growing losses.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-record-high-pce-inflation-hedge-data-rate-cuts-2024-4">Gold prices hit a record high on Monday to above $2,260 per ounce.</a> The surge comes as investors anticipate interest rate cuts from the Fed.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-retail-traders-leverage-tqqq-investing-meme-stocks-2024-3">Retail investors are piling into riskier, high-leverage ETFs</a> that track the stock market amid new record highs.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-media-stock-price-crash-spac-djt-truth-social-2024-4">The value of Truth Media and Technology Group does not appear sustainable</a> given its paltry revenue and sizable losses, BI's Emily Steward writes.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/meme-stocks-reddit-trump-media-gamestop-wallstreetbets-market-rally-fed-2024-3">Meme stocks are making a comeback</a> as retail investors start to get more excited about the stock market.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil edged higher by 0.94% to $83.95 a barrel. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, jumped by 0.70% to $87.61 a barrel. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> jumped 1.05% to $2,261.90 per ounce. </li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose 12 basis points to 4.33%. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> dropped by 2.70% to $69,390. </li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks drop after hot economic data dents Fed rate-cut prospects

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Both Trump and Harris are proposing policies that defy economic reality, Howard Marks wrote.</li><li>Trump's tariff and tax plans ignore the potential costs associated with them, the billionaire investor said.</li></ul>The presidential election is running on promises that just don't hold up, according to billionaire investor Howard Marks."Like me, you've undoubtedly noticed that politicians ranging from former President Trump and Vice President Harris to down-ballot candidates are back to making promises that ignore economic reality," Marks wrote in his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/shall-we-repeal-the-laws-of-economics">latest memo</a>.These proposals either disregard the costs that come with them or show a failed understanding of the problem they hope to address, the Oaktree Capital founder wrote.Marks emphasized that he was neither dismissing nor promoting either candidate, and took aim at policy ideas on both sides of the aisle.<h2 id="d3caa353-6fb1-4806-bb6f-b551a0e1c2fc">Donald Trump: Tariffs and taxes</h2>In Trump's case, plans for higher tariffs on virtually all US imports are equivalent to a price hike on average American consumers, Marks said.Trump has frequently disregarded this <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-policy-barrier-income-tax-rate-hikes-krugman-2024-7#:~:text=Trump%27s%20wide%2Dreaching%20tariff%20plan,%25%2C%20Nobel%2Dwinning%20economist%20says&amp;text=Trump%27s%20proposed%20tariffs%20would%20benefit,%2Dtax%20income%2C%20he%20said">argument as a false alarm</a>, despite warnings of a tariff-led <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariff-outlook-trade-policy-income-tax-consequences-fiscal-crisis-2024-7">US economic shock</a>. Instead, the former president has emphasized that 10% across-the-board duties would correct trade inequalities and bring back domestic production, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-plan-inflation-policy-impact-trade-war-china-rates-2024-5">with no risk of inflation</a>.Marks agreed that tariffs might stimulate US output, but higher taxes on foreign goods discourage low-cost imports. As these disappear, consumers should prepare for higher prices. One think tank estimated that these could amount to an additional <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-10-tariff-proposal-cost-households-1500-extra-presidential-election-2024-3">$1,500 cost on households</a> a year.The billionaire investor also scrutinized Trump's tax proposals.If elected, he has vowed to extend the expiring 2017 tax cut, keeping the corporate tax rate at 21%. But Marks warned that this will increase the national deficit by $5.8 trillion in the next decade, or $4.1 trillion if the cut leads to a stimulative impact.In recent years, scrutiny has mounted over US overspending and the rise of federal debt. Marks noted that annual interest on national debt now exceeds the defense budget — and will eventually need to be addressed."The truth is, deficits encourage the economic growth that most people enjoy, and spending more than the government takes in permits officials to give away 'free stuff,' thereby gaining votes," he said. "But doing this perpetually requires ignoring the laws of economics, running up debts in the apparent belief that they'll never have to be paid. Can it go on without end? We'll see, but I would think not."<h2 id="10164c8d-4177-48cd-8562-3dd9ee36ceea">Kamala Harris: Price gouging and housing</h2>Marks' primary criticism aimed at Harris' anti-price gouging policy.Gouging happens when corporations lift prices for their benefit, taking advantage of supply-demand imbalances — such as during a natural disaster or in a pandemic.While Harris has voiced a desire to tackle grocery inflation, Marks isn't convinced that price hikes have stemmed from bad intent on the part of corporations."There's nothing wrong with trying to bring down the cost of necessities. However, the best way to do this is to encourage additions to supply. Another way is to not overstimulate demand by injecting excessive liquidity into the economy," he said. "Mandating lower prices is generally the least effective way to get them."Economists have generally been split on whether Harris' gouging <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-economic-plan-price-controls-gouging-food-inflation-election-2024-8">policy amounts to price controls</a>, though proponents say this is misleading.Marks also considered Harris' proposal for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-kamala-harris-plans-to-build-3-million-new-homes-2024-8">$25,000 in downpayment assistance to first-time homebuyers.</a> Since the pandemic, the housing market has become increasingly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/california-demographia-housing-markets-affordability-crisis-home-prices-selling-sunset-2024-6">unaffordable</a>, with prospective buyers facing low supply and high costs."Certainly, it's hard these days for young people to come up with the cash needed to become homeowners," Marks wrote. "The problem here is that giving a million would-be buyers $25,000 each, or $25 billion in all, would almost certainly result in an immediate increase in home prices, eliminating much of the hoped-for benefit from the program."

Trump and Harris are pushing proposals that 'ignore economic reality,' billionaire investor Howard Marks says   

New Delhi: The <keyword id="20072894" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-economy" source="keywords">Rural economy</keyword> of <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> has emerged as a significant driver of <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword>, outpacing urban areas largely due to increased <keyword id="20155204" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-spending" source="keywords">government spending</keyword> in the recent quarters, highlighted a report by <keyword id="20548750" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Anand-Rathi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anand Rathi" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Anand Rathi">Anand Rathi</keyword>, a financial service company. "<keyword id="20109648" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-india" source="keywords">Rural India</keyword> continues to outpace urban areas in growth, largely due to a significant rise in government spending in rural regions in the last quarter," said the report. For the coming months, the report stated that the growth trend in the rural economy is expected to continue, although a moderation in growth may occur. It also added that the favourable monsoon conditions and improved sowing data are anticipated to sustain the upward trajectory in <keyword id="19931574" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-demand" source="keywords">rural demand</keyword>, providing a buffer against potential economic uncertainties. "We expect this growth to moderate following the elections, favourable monsoon conditions and improved sowing data should sustain the upward trend in rural demand". The report also highlighted that the government's ambitious capital expenditure plans, amounting to Rs 11.1 trillion, are expected to stimulate infrastructure development, further enhancing rural economic prospects The rural economy plays a crucial role in the development of the country because a majority of the population still resides in rural areas. As per the Economic Survey of 2022-2023 around 65 per cent of India's population lived in rural areas in 2021. The report also highlighted that India stands out among emerging economies due to its strong GDP growth. Last year, India grew by more than 8 per cent, and the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> expects a 7.2 per cent growth rate for FY25. The financial outlook is positive, with efforts to cut the fiscal deficit to 4.5 per cent. The report also noted that India's credit rating may improve because of the strong tax revenue and a large dividend from the RBI which will lead to a lower fiscal deficit than expected. "The fiscal outlook appears promising, with continued focus on reducing the fiscal deficit toward the 4.5 per cent target. Strong tax collections and a substantial RBI dividend may enable the fiscal deficit to come in lower than expected, which could potentially lead to an improved sovereign rating" said the report.

Rural economy is driving India's growth, Govt capex in infra will stimulate it: Anand Rathi report

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may begin lowering <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> around October, provided that external factors like weather conditions and international commodity prices do not cause any disruptions, the credit rating agency, Crisil said in its report. The credit rating agency further anticipated that it expects "two rate cuts this fiscal." It said that the decision of the <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) decision to hold rates in its recent announcement was due to the elevated <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>. The climate conditions such as weather events are frequently changing and they need to be monitored. Going ahead, it anticipated that the macroeconomic environment would be better, creating a background for a rate cut. "The food challenge to a rate cut is expected to ease as agriculture prospects look better than last year. The monsoon has been above normal (7 per cent above the long period average as of August 7), and sowing has picked up across major foodgrains. As agriculture prospects become clearer by September, we expect it to pave the way for a rate cut," the S&amp;P's arm added in its report. In a move reflecting its cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties, the RBI has decided to keep the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5 per cent. The decision to keep the repo rate steady comes amidst persistent concerns about <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword>, which remains above the RBI's target range. The central bank's commitment to bringing inflation down to its 4 per cent target continues to face challenges due to ongoing food inflation and other economic factors. Noting a likely uptick in core inflation, the report added that factors such as international freight costs, geopolitical risks to crude oil prices, and hikes in domestic telecom tariffs could affect this indicator. Anticipating the growth, it added, "The pace of growth of the economy is expected to ease this year, with lower fiscal support as the government pursues <keyword id="20101140" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-consolidation" source="keywords">fiscal consolidation</keyword>." Announcing the MPC's decision on August 8, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das expected the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 7.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2024-25. Governor Das emphasized that the RBI remains vigilant regarding inflationary pressures and will take necessary actions to maintain price stability while supporting the country's economic recovery. The MPC's decision reflects a balanced approach, aiming to control inflation without stifling growth. The adjustments in repo rate have a direct effect on <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and job creation. The lower interest rates tend to stimulate economic growth by making borrowing cheaper for businesses.

RBI expected to begin rate cuts in October, with two reductions this fiscal: Crisil

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors are too optimistic about the near-term prospects of AI, Vanguard said.</li><li>Firms would need to growth profit by 40% annually for the next three years to match valuations, the firm said.</li></ul>With tech companies still <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-gpt5-gpt4-expectations-ai-2024-7">pushing the boundaries</a> of artificial intelligence, market excitement for it seems endless.But this enthusiasm expects too much from the technology in too little time, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/economic-payoff-ai-coming-but-not-here-yet.html">Vanguard</a> wrote on Thursday.Wall Street is rife with upbeat forecasts about what AI could do to the economy and corporate profits. Most of them are pinned to a US workplace revolution and a productivity boom.That optimism has helped fuel strong stock gains, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 up 18% year-to-date through Thursday.But Vanguard global chief economist Joe Davis thinks expectations are too high, and says that stocks are overvalued even if the AI boom plays out as anticipated.He estimates that US corporate profits would have to growth by 40% annually over the next three years to justify where stocks are trading now. For context, the S&amp;P 500's trailing one-year earnings growth rate through the second quarter of 2024 was 10.9%, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_081624.pdf">FactSet data</a>."I'm optimistic about the long-term potential of artificial intelligence to power big increases in worker productivity and economic growth," global chief economist Joe Davis wrote. "But I'm pessimistic that AI can justify lofty equity valuations or save us from an economic soft patch this year or next."He continued: "This is double the annualized rate of the 1920s, when electricity lit up the nation — not to mention economic output and corporate income statements."Such a historic surge in corporate performance looks even less probable if the economy cools down next year. Vanguard expects GDP to expand by just 1% to 1.5% in 2025.It's not that the investment firm has no faith in AI's potential — its research suggests 45% to 55% odds that AI will trigger a boom in labor productivity. Between 2028 and 2040, that could spur a 3.1% annualized rate of US growth in real terms.But investors need to let go of any notions that this will happen immediately, Davis said. While firms have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-big-tech-spending-on-ai-investments-2024-7">poured billions to advance</a> their position in the sector, some market players are incorrect in thinking that AI investing will reach $1 trillion in the near term:"$1 trillion in AI investment by 2025 would require 286% growth. That's probably not going to happen, which means we're unlikely to experience an AI-driven economic boom in 2025," he said.Some on Wall Street are much more pessimistic. BlackRock has said there's a strong chance that heavy AI investing will trigger <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/artificial-intelligence-ai-inflation-productivity-boom-interest-rates-fed-blackrock-2024-6">higher inflation</a> before any production boom can come. That could erode corporate profit growth.

You Searched For "economic prospects" and got 11 results

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