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India's services sector showed robust expansion in October, per the <keyword id="22267674" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HSBC-India-Services-PMI" source="keywords">HSBC India Services PMI</keyword> (Purchasing Managers' Index), which rose to 58.5 last month, up from September's ten-month low of 57.7. October's figures managed to exceed even the long-run PMI average of 54.1, largely on the back of a strong sales pipeline and elevated demand. Employment, or job creation in this sector accelerated to its fastest growth rate in 26 months. Anticipating solid, sustained demand in the near term, firms added new employees at the most rapid pace in over 2 years. October also saw <keyword id="23834175" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="input-costs-rise" source="keywords">input costs rise</keyword> at their fastest pace in 3 months, indicating renewed demand and economic activity in the country. The ISM Services PMI, an indicator of the economic health of the US, also exceeded expectations, reaching 56.0 compared to the forecasted 53.8, suggesting strong growth within the services sector. "During October, the Indian services sector experienced strong expansions in output and consumer demand, as well as job creation, which achieved a 26-month high," said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC. The sector saw increased business activity across multiple fronts, with export sales showing significant growth and companies reporting stronger demand from international markets including Africa, Asia, the Americas, the Middle East, and the UK. However, industry experts remain cautiously optimistic about the sector's prospects. Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist at Acuité Ratings &amp; Research, noted that while the October recovery is promising, several factors warrant careful monitoring. “The recovery in the PMI indices in October 2024 is promising for the second half of the fiscal after the dip in several high-frequency indicators in September 2024. Industrial and service activity has expectedly received a boost from the anticipated spike in consumption demand in Q3 FY25, driven by the festivities and the marriage season," she said. Chowdhury added that it will be crucial to monitor the sustainability of these PMI indices at these elevated levels, given the reported weakness in urban demand in Q2 as flagged by FMCG companies. She also noted that potential increases in wholesale and core retail inflation, combined with higher input costs and wage pressures, could delay expected interest rate cuts. RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also noted that inflation and CPI figures for October might be elevated, pushing ahead any chances of interest rate cuts in the near future. Acuité Ratings &amp; Research maintains its GDP growth forecast at 7.0% for FY25 while acknowledging the multiple downside risks that will require close observation in the coming months.

India's Services Index jumps to 58.5 in October as employment grows the fastest in 26 months

India's retail inflation is projected to surge to 6.15% in October, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance threshold of 6%, according to a new report by Union Bank of India. The spike is attributed to persistent <keyword id="21013592" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-price-pressures" source="keywords">food price pressures</keyword> and the waning of favorable base effects from the previous year. Earlier this month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also echoed similar sentiments and noted that the inflation print for October 2024 could stay well above 5.5%. This is why, as Das highlighted, cutting interest rates as early as December would be very early and premature The <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) data for October, which will be released at 4 pm on Tuesday, as opposed to the previous practice of releasing this data at 5:30 pm on the 12th of every month, follows September's inflation reading of 5.49%, up from 3.65% in August 2024. The last time inflation breached the RBI's upper limit was in August 2023. Despite the RBI's anticipation of an October inflation "hump," the Union Bank report suggests that the magnitude of the increase might raise concerns, particularly as November's figures are also tracking at elevated levels. The bank maintains its forecast of unchanged interest rates in December's monetary policy meeting, with a modest 50 basis points rate cut cycle predicted to begin in February 2025. Food inflation remains a key driver of price pressures, with vegetables and edible oils leading the recent surge. In September 2024, India's YoY food inflation rate hit 9.24%, up from 5.66% in the month prior. However, the report projects some easing of food inflation in the January-March quarter, citing typical winter price moderation and improving prospects for rabi crops. Despite this, potential risks from food supply disruptions, imported edible oil prices, and the impact of potential trade tariff hikes will exist. The RBI, which aims to maintain retail inflation at 4%, has held the repo rate steady at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive time in its last meeting as part of its inflation containment strategy. A recent SBI report also noted that expecting rate cuts in this quarter would be immature, and easing was possible only during the first half of 2025. "Given the current estimates of FY25 real GDP growth at 7.2% and CPI at 4.50%, the RBI would quite possibly keep policy rates stable over the coming quarter at least. Emerging trends in the growth outlook would possibly determine the timing and extent of any policy easing. With near-term CPI numbers likely to stay elevated, it’s premature to consider expectations of any easing in the December review. "However, high-frequency data do validate a softness in growth data on an incremental basis. Given the anticipated aligning of CPI closer to the target over H2, a shallow easing, if any can be a reasonable possibility over H1 of CY 25", it added.

Retail inflation expected to breach 6% mark in October, says UBI Report

Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

India’s Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), <keyword id="20690607" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="V-Anantha-Nageswaran" source="keywords">V Anantha Nageswaran</keyword>, remains optimistic about the nation’s economic prospects despite a slower-than-expected <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> in the second quarter of FY2024-25. Speaking at the Bharat @100 Summit hosted by Assocham, he said that the fundamental health of the economy remains robust, according to a report by aNI. Nageswaran highlighted several indicators demonstrating the economy’s resilience. “If you run through the checklist for the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword>, the health is pretty robust,” he noted, pointing to controlled levels of external debt as a share of GDP, declining non-performing assets in the banking system, and stable inflation trends. Although certain food items have caused inflationary spikes, their impact is limited within the overall consumer price index basket, he explained. The CEA praised the shift in fiscal expenditure priorities over the past seven years, with greater focus on capital investments rather than revenue spending. This reallocation, he suggested, has bolstered long-term economic stability and growth potential. India’s GDP growth for the July-September quarter was 5.4%, significantly below the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 7%. While this has sparked concerns among economists, Nageswaran urged against overreacting. Erratic monsoons and excessive rainfall disrupted economic activity in Q2, he explained, while global uncertainties and supply chain pressures further weighed on growth. Despite these challenges, he maintained confidence in the broader growth narrative, citing improvements in key economic metrics. For instance, India’s gross capital formation has risen from 27.3% of GDP in the second decade of the 2000s to 30.8% today. Private consumption remains steady, and exports—spanning both services and manufacturing—continue to perform well even amid challenging global conditions. Nageswaran also underscored India’s growing competitiveness in international trade. He noted that the nation’s total <keyword id="24325087" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports-as-a-percentage-of-GDP" source="keywords">exports as a percentage of GDP</keyword> now surpass China’s, showcasing its resilience and adaptability in a shifting global trade environment. However, he cautioned against reading too much into quarterly fluctuations, highlighting the impact of geopolitical developments such as trade restrictions from the US on critical minerals and rare earths, as well as policy shifts in China. These external factors, he suggested, are likely to persist and may continue influencing short-term economic trends. (with ANI inputs)

Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

In a rather dampened <keyword id="19915531" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forecast" source="keywords">forecast</keyword> for the Indian economy, <keyword id="19908266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICRA" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ICRA" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ICRA">ICRA</keyword> has forecast a sharp <keyword id="20637625" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="slowdown" source="keywords">slowdown</keyword> in India's <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword>. The credit rating agency has projected a year-on-year expansion of 6.0% in <keyword id="22106354" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY2025" source="keywords">Q1 FY2025</keyword> — the lowest in the last six quarters. In Q4 FY2024, India recorded an impressive 7.8%. The Reserve Bank of India had expected the growth momentum to continue this financial year as well. Earlier this month, the RBI governor had projected a 7.1% growth in Q1, while the growth rate for the entire financial year FY2024-25 was projected to be at 7.2%. The central bank had attributed this potential robust growth to improved agricultural activity, sustained buoyancy in services activity, healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, thrust on capex by the government, visible signs of pick up in private investment, and improving prospects of global trade. However, RBI’s growth projections for this financial year were slightly moderated due to lower-than-anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output. As per ICRA, the sharp drop in GDP growth is primarily due to parliamentary elections and a contraction in government capital expenditure weakening urban consumer confidence. Another main cause could be the weakening urban consumer confidence, which reported a surprising downtick in the May and July 2024 rounds of the Central Bank’s Consumer Confidence Survey. “The lingering impact of last year’s unfavourable monsoon and an uneven start to the 2024 monsoon prevented a broader improvement in rural sentiment. Lower volume growth combined with diminishing gains from commodity prices weighed upon the profitability of some of the industrial sectors. The heat wave also affected footfalls in various service sectors, even as it provided a significant boost to electricity demand,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA. Despite the Q1 slowdown, ICRA expects economic activity to pick up in the latter half of FY2025, projecting an overall GDP growth of 6.8% for the full year, with a potential to exceed 7% in the second half. The agency expects decelerated growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) as well, easing to 5.7% in Q1 FY2025 from 6.3% in the previous quarter. This slowdown is primarily attributed to a decline in industrial growth, which is predicted to moderate to 6.4% from 8.4%, along with slight reductions in the services sector's growth and a modest improvement in agricultural GVA. The difference between GDP and GVA growth is expected to narrow to around 30 basis points (bps) in Q1 FY2025, down from 148 bps in the previous quarter, due to lower growth in net indirect taxes amid a rise in government subsidies. ICRA's analysis indicates that industrial GVA growth is likely to moderate in Q1 FY2025, with a slowdown in manufacturing and construction offset by growth in electricity, mining, and quarrying. Additionally, a contraction in government and state capital expenditure, along with a significant drop in new project announcements, has contributed to the overall slowdown. Manufacturing profit margins have also been under pressure due to rising global commodity prices and narrowing deflation in input costs, which, combined with slower growth in manufacturing output, suggests a deceleration in manufacturing GVA growth. In the agricultural sector, GVA growth is projected to be modest at 1.0% in Q1 FY2025, amidst declining output from most rabi and summer crops and a deficient rainfall in June 2024. With growing concerns around inflation and unemployment in India and across the world, the latest forecast could further fuel the fears around recession and slowdown in major economies. However, a much clearer picture will emerge with the actual quarterly estimates of GDP for Q1 from the National Statistical Office (NSO) next week. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/digital-initiatives-to-triple-indian-retail-borrowing-to-usd-2-5-trillion-by-2030-sp-global/articleshow/112263945.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Digital initiatives to triple Indian retail borrowing to USD 2.5 trillion by 2030: S&amp;P Global</a>

ICRA forecasts slowdown in India's economy: GDP growth expected to hit six-quarter low in Q1 FY2025

The <keyword id="20150760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market-Intelligence" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence">S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence</keyword> has upwardly revised <keyword id="22162557" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="GDP-forecasts" source="keywords">GDP forecasts</keyword> for <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword> in its latest report. But even with the revised forecast, China's GDP growth will be substantially lower than that of <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. According to S&amp;P, India's GDP is projected to grow at a rate of 6.7 per cent in 2024 and 6.3 per cent in 2025. In contrast, China's <keyword id="19931030" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economy" source="keywords">economy</keyword> is now forecasted to grow at 5.0 per cent in 2024 and forecast moderately raised to 4.6 per cent from 4.5 per cent. The agency revised China's estimate due to policy tailwinds expected to extend into next year and a gradual improvement in private-sector sentiment within the country. However, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) in its monetary policy has raised the GDP forecast of India from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent for FY25. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, "The real GDP growth for the current financial year 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.3 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent, and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." RBI Governor further said that, "The GDP growth projection, we have increased it from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent and the inflation projection, the average for the year, we have retained it at 4.5 per cent as it was in the last MPC meeting." The <keyword id="22162558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global Market</keyword> Intelligence however has lowered the growth forecasts of US, Canada, Brazil, and Japan for 2024, while it has revised upward the forecasts for China, the Eurozone, the UK, and Russia. Additionally, the <keyword id="22162559" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-growth-forecast" source="keywords">global growth forecast</keyword> for 2025 has edged up from 2.7 per cent to 2.8 per cent, with higher forecasts for some of the larger countries, including the US and China. Regarding Japan, the agency maintains that the next rate hike by the Bank of Japan is most likely to occur in October 2024, given the economic and inflationary headwinds. In the Asia-Pacific region, the agency predicts that real GDP growth, excluding mainland China and Japan, will remain broadly stable at 4.4 per cent in 2024 and 2025, driven by robust domestic demand and recovering exports. A pickup in overseas demand is seen as the key growth driver for the region in 2024.

S&P Global Market raised growth forecast of China, still significantly lower than India

<ul><li>The Indian economy is expected to grow at over 7% rate in upcoming years</li><li>Fiscal deficit down to 6.4% of <keyword id="19904293" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="keywords">GDP</keyword> in FY24</li><li>Current Account Deficit (CAD) down to 0.7% of GDP </li></ul>With the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> 2024 to be presented tomorrow, Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> is presenting the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> in the parliament today. Think of the <keyword id="6354872" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-survey" source="Orion">Economic Survey</keyword> as a report card of the country's economic performance over the past year, along with inputs and outlook for the coming fiscal year. Here are some crucial highlights from the Economic Survey 2023-24: <h2>Macro-economic indicators</h2>Per the World Economic Outlook in April, the <keyword id="19948494" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-economic-growth" source="keywords">global economic growth</keyword> was pegged at 3.2% in 2023. In contrast, <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s real GDP grew by 8.2% in FY24, staying above the 8% mark for 3 out of 4 quarters in FY24. Gross Fixed Capital Formation, or investments in long-term, value-generating fixed assets increased by 9% real terms in 2023-24. The government trimmed down fiscal deficit trimmed down from 6.4% of GDP in FY23 to 5.6% of GDP in FY24.The current account deficit, which indicates that the country is a net importer rather than being an exporter, came down to 0.7% of GDP in FY24, as opposed to 2% of GDP in FY23. While retail inflation averaged at 6.7% in FY23, it dropped down to 5.4% in FY24 During FY24, primary markets saw capital formation, or facilitated raising funds worth Rs 10.9 lakh crore, which makes up for around 29% of the gross fixed capital formation. India's market capitalization to GDP ratio is the fifth largest in the world. <h2>Inflationary Trends </h2>Core inflation eased down to 9-year lows, while core goods inflation came down to a 4-year low. However, food inflation continued to stay high, inching up to 7.5% in FY24, as opposed to 6.6% in FY23. This was largely because of adverse weather conditions, which caused a spike in onion and tomato prices and impacted kharif crop production. Going ahead, RBI's short-term outlook remains positive. Assuming a normal monsoon and no extraordinary policy or geopolitical shocks, the inflation is estimated to drop to 4.5% in FY25, and further down to 4.1% in FY26. These are in line with IMF's inflation forecasts, which stand at 4.6% for 2024 and 4.2% for 2025. <h2>Export-Import trends</h2>India's service exports jumped by 4.9% to $341.1 billion in FY24, driven mainly by IT and software services. Apart from being the top remittance recipient globally, with remittances worth $120 billion in 2023, the country also witnessed investment inflows from foreign investors. As of March 2024, India's forex reserves were sufficient to cover over 10 months of projected imports in FY25, and about 98% of all its external debt. The country's external debt to GDP ratio has been largely consistent over the years, standing at 18.7% of the GDP as of March 2024. <h2>Key growth areas to look out for in FY25 </h2>Essential to adopt bottom-up reform approach, with special short to medium term emphasis on structural changes, job and skill creation, addressing challenges faced by MSMEs, managing India's transition towards a green, clean economy, deepening the country's nascent bond market and laying greater stress on tackling quality of health, especially amongst young Indians. Deliberate focus needed on boosting private investment, expanding India's MSMEs, tapping into the potential of India's agriculture sector, manage India's green transition, urgently bridge the employment-education gap and build capacity of states to sustain and complement India's growth. In the medium term, the country's economy is expected to grow at a rate of over 7%.

Economic Survey 2024: GDP grew by 8.2%, to sustain 7%+ growth momentum, fiscal deficit down to 6.4% of GDP

Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], August 8 (ANI): <keyword id="64190" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI-Governor" source="Orion">RBI Governor</keyword> <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> says <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and <keyword id="489239" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-food-prices" source="Orion">global food prices</keyword> have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent." The inflation landscape reflects mixed signals, to which Das said, "<keyword id="21258540" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="headline-inflation" source="keywords">Headline inflation</keyword> eased up to 5.1 per cent in June 2024 due to higher than expected food inflation. Fuel remained in deflation for the 10th consecutive month. Core inflation moderated to a historic low in the months of May and June." RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, outlined the <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> with real <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> of 7.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2024-25 and headline inflation eased to 5.1 per cent in June, on Thursday. Das said, "Real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.1 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. Real GDP growth for Q1 2025-26, this is something which we are giving for the first time, is projected at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." He added, "We have slightly moderated the <keyword id="387719" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="growth-projection" source="Orion">growth projection</keyword> for the first quarter of the current financial year in relation to the projection we gave in the previous MPC in June. This is primarily due to updated information on certain high-frequency indicators which show lower than anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure and core industries output." This forecast marks a slight moderation from previous estimates provided in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in June, attributed to recent updates on high-frequency indicators such as corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output. The inflation landscape reflects mixed signals, to which Das said, "Headline inflation eased up to 5.1 per cent in June 2024 due to higher than expected food inflation. Fuel remained in deflation for the 10th consecutive month. Core inflation moderated to a historic low in the months of May and June." Balancing robust growth projections with a nuanced understanding of inflation dynamics Governor Das stated, "Food inflation which has a weight of around 46 per cent in the CPI basket, contributed to more than 75 per cent of headline inflation in May and June. Vegetable prices increased sharply and contributed about 35 per cent to inflation in June. High inflation pressures persisted across other major food items also." Governor Das mentioned softening in core inflation continues to be broad-based with core services inflation touching a new low in the current CPI series during the month of May and June 2024. Das stated, "The high food price momentum likely to have continued in the month of July also. Large favourable base effects may however push headline inflation downwards in July. The Impact of the revision in milk prices mobile tariffs also needs to be carefully monitored." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in south west monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta das. Das anticipates some relief in food inflation due to the expected pickup in the southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals remain above the normative levels, contributing to a more stable food price environment. Global food prices, which have been on an upward trajectory since March 2024, showed signs of easing in July.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das projects 7.2% GDP growth for 2024-25, reports eased inflation to 5.1% in June

<keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Gold-prices" source="keywords">Gold prices</keyword> surged to a historic high on Tuesday, September 24, as global economic conditions and <keyword id="19955176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-tensions" source="keywords">geopolitical tensions</keyword> pushed the precious metal to new levels, a CNBC report said. The spot price of gold rose to an unprecedented $2,638.37 per ounce during the day’s trading, while US <keyword id="20942333" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-futures" source="keywords">gold futures</keyword> also spiked, reaching $2,661.60. In India, the cost of <keyword id="21271046" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="24-carat-gold" source="keywords">24-carat gold</keyword> climbed sharply, hitting ₹76,330 per 10 grams, marking an ongoing upward trend that analysts suggest could see prices nearing ₹78,000 per 10 grams in the coming weeks. <h2>Gold prices today</h2> While the prices of gold hit their <keyword id="19953076" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="record-high" source="keywords">record high</keyword> yesterday (September 24), today (September 25) the prices remained around Rs 76,000 per 10 grams. The price of 24-carat gold, recognised for its exceptional purity, was set at ₹76,370 per 10 grams. Meanwhile, 22-carat gold, commonly used in jewellery for its added durability from alloy mixing, was available at ₹70,010 per 10 grams. Here are the gold prices in some major cities of India today: <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">City </td><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">22 Carat Gold Rate Today </td><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">24 Carat Gold Rate Today </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Delhi </td><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">70,160 </td><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">76,520 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Mumbai </td><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">70,010 </td><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">76,370 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Ahmedabad </td><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">70,060 </td><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">76,420 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Chennai </td><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">70,010 </td><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">76,370 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Kolkata </td><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">70,010 </td><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">76,370 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Gurugram </td><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">70,160 </td><td style="border-left:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-right:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;border-top:solid #cdcdcd 0.75pt;vertical-align:top;padding:8pt 4pt 8pt 4pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">76,520 </td></tr></tbody></table> <h2>Gold prices touch record-high, analysts react </h2> Industry experts are optimistic that gold prices will continue their upward trajectory. As per a CNBC report, Colin Shah, Managing Director of <keyword id="20237409" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kama-Jewelry" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Kama Jewelry" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Kama Jewelry">Kama Jewelry</keyword>, predicts that the global price of gold could reach as high as $3,000 per ounce in the medium to long term. Shah attributed the ongoing rally to favourable global conditions, including the anticipated rate cuts by the <keyword id="19901377" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-Federal-Reserve" source="keywords">US Federal Reserve</keyword>. He also expected that in India, the price of gold will surpass ₹78,000 per 10 grams during the upcoming festive period. On the other hand, Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, observed that COMEX gold surged to $2,689.40 per ounce due to a sharp decline in US consumer confidence, which increased the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts by the <keyword id="19904332" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="federal-reserve" source="keywords">Federal Reserve</keyword>. "COMEX gold surged to $2,689.40 per ounce yesterday as a significant drop in US consumer confidence heightened expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The US Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in September to 98.7, down from 105.6 in August, its largest decline in three years. Concerns over the labor market, combined with lower US Treasury yields and the US dollar nearing a 14-month low, further fueled the rise in gold prices. Additionally, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman highlighted persistent inflation risks and advocated for a cautious approach to rate cuts to avoid reigniting inflation. Today, COMEX gold prices reached a record high of $2,694.89 per ounce, and expected to hold gains as the CME FedWatch Tool now indicates a 62.2% chance of a 50 basis point cut in November, up from just 29% a week ago. Ongoing fears of an escalating Israel-Hezbollah conflict are likely to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset," Chainwala said. Saish Sandeep Sawant Dessai, a base metals analyst at Angel One Ltd., noted that bullion prices climbed during yesterday's trading session, driven by momentum from the US Federal Reserve's bold rate cut and expectations of further reductions. "In yesterday’s trading session, the bullion prices traded higher as traders embraced the momentum generated by the U.S. Federal Reserve's bold interest rate cut and signs that further reductions were on the horizon. "The Fed policymakers said their large half-point rate cut last week was meant to try to sustain what they see as an emerging and healthy balance in the economy. Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee said there are "lots of cuts" to come over the next 12 months, while Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that the actual path would depend on incoming data. Fed futures traders have priced in 75 basis points in rate cuts by the end of 2024, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "Zero-yield bullion tends to be a preferred investment in a low interest rate environment and during geopolitical turmoil. On the geopolitical front, Hezbollah devices explode again in Lebanon on Wednesday, stoking tensions of wider conflict after similar explosions of the group's pagers the day before. This boosted the demand for safe haven gold," Dessai said.

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