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Google's new report on <keyword id="19904566" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="artificial-intelligence" source="keywords">artificial intelligence</keyword> (AI) emphasizes responsible AI development and suggests recommendations for policymakers, companies, and civil society. The report titled "An AI Opportunity Agenda for India" outlines how artificial intelligence can drive <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword>, social progress and global leadership for the nation. The report says India with its rapidly growing economy, outstanding tech talent, young demography and vibrant start-up ecosystem, is poised to reap the immense benefits of artificial intelligence. A comprehensive and responsible approach to AI can unlock significant economic growth and societal progress in India. "The potential economic impact of AI in India is substantial - reports estimate that at least INR 33.8 lakh crore of economic value from <keyword id="20037918" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="AI-adoption" source="keywords">AI adoption</keyword> can be achieved in India in 2030. While these achievements signify a promising beginning, unlocking the full potential of AI hinges on the strategic decisions we make today," says a Google's press release. The report suggests that to maximize the AI opportunity for India collaborative efforts are needed across government, industry, and civil society. They need to prioritise three key areas which include investments in infrastructure and innovation, building human capital and an AI-powered workforce and promoting wide adoption and universal accessibility. AI is already addressing some of the most pressing challenges like revolutionizing farming practices and improving <keyword id="20646060" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="healthcare-access" source="keywords">healthcare access</keyword>. The <keyword id="20214323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="agriculture-sector" source="keywords">agriculture sector</keyword> is getting the benefits of AI through minimizing climate risks, optimizing productivity and sustainability, and providing access to real-time crop pricing information and early warning of potential crop threats. Many <keyword id="23569666" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AI-powered-platforms" source="keywords">AI-powered platforms</keyword> are empowering farmers to boost crop yields and encourage sustainable practices. In the healthcare sector, AI is being used for better diagnosis, bigger access, and personalized care, especially for underserved communities. Google has partnered with <keyword id="23569667" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ARMMAN" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ARMMAN" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ARMMAN">ARMMAN</keyword> to use AI to identify women at risk of dropping out of their health information program, allowing for personalized interventions to improve maternal health outcomes. ARMAAN seeks to address the pervasive systemic problems underlying maternal and child mortality and morbidity in India.

AI adoption can unleash Rs 33.8 lakh crore of economic benefit to India in 2030: Google Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Expect a re-acceleration of inflation for the rest of 2024 into 2025, says Michael Landsberg.</li><li>High shipping rates and daily living expenses indicate that inflation could be worse than expected.</li></ul>A few months ago, it seemed like the war on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/higher-long-term-inflation-outlook-investing-strategy-attractive-bonds-stocks-2024-10">inflation</a> had been won.Wall Street strategists were expecting inflation to continue cooling down into 2025, clearing the way for a series of consistent rate cuts as the Federal Reserve insisted price increases were no longer a threat. In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that prices rose 2.4% from last year — closing in on the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, wasn't so sure. He saw signs in the market pointing to a re-acceleration of inflation in the last few months of 2024 and into 2025.Now, it seems like Landsberg may be right. After a Trump victory, concerns about inflation are creeping up again as proposed policies such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-hit-company-stock-profits-hardest-china-investing-manufacturing-2024-11">tariffs</a> could push prices up. And as the October CPI report showed, inflation is back on the rise, with prices increasing 2.6% year-over-year. In an interview with Business Insider, Landsberg shared the economic indicators he's watching to monitor inflation and the best way to prepare your portfolio in case of another flare up.<h2 id="7dc40d47-f3ee-4de6-bd68-d838e6c9299f">'Higher for longer'</h2>Inflation could rise to 3% as early as January and hit a mid-3% level in 2025, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to continue its rate-cutting cycle, in Landsburg's view. He's expecting the Fed to pause rate cuts in December.Landsberg believes the Bureau of Labor Statistics' metrics aren't providing the full inflation picture. He's keeping his eye out on other economic indicators that provide a more on-the-ground look at inflation levels.First, rising Chinese shipping rates are a telling sign of inflation. China is one of the US' biggest trading partners, so an increase in transportation costs between the two countries will likely trickle down and reflect in consumer prices.Geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea are contributing to the price increases, as shipping companies are forced to detour and choose longer and more expensive routes, according to Landsberg.With <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-fed-rate-cuts-red-sea-attacks-panama-canal-shipping-2024-1">12% of global trade</a> passing through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea region is a critical trade route for consumer basics such as oil, cars, raw materials, and electronic components. As a result, these blockades are putting pressure on global supply chains and shipping costs.<div type="image" title="Shanghai Containerized Freight Index" height="663" width="1185" msid="115308890" hostid="261" sizebytes="33696"></div>The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, which tracks the current spot freight rates for containerized cargo departing from Shanghai, China, has remained elevated in 2024 after spiking earlier this year due to the continued blockade of the Red Sea by Houthi rebels."Shipping costs don't affect margins of companies as much as they're going to affect people's wallets, and that's not getting looked at," Landsberg said.Landsberg also points to the high prices of commodities and everyday necessities. Food prices and rents are still rising. In some East Coast metro areas, rents have risen over double digits since last year, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.redfin.com/news/rental-tracker-october-2024/">Redfin</a>.Insurance prices are another strong indicator of inflation, whether it be for cars or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/states-most-at-risk-climate-change-rising-home-insurance-premiums-2024-10">homes</a>."Inflation in insurance, which everyone has to have all the time, is up double digits year-over-year," Landsberg said. "That affects people's wallets certainly more than just a printed CPI number."That's not to mention the potential of wage inflation. According to October's employment report, hourly wage growth was up 4% from this time last year. If Trump clamps down on immigration, then that number could go even higher as the supply of workers falls, pushing up the cost of labor.<h2 id="102f3015-2817-4d7e-8b5c-6ea2e030d247">Rebalance your portfolio</h2>Diversification is key in an inflationary environment by spreading out risk between sectors and asset classes, but you might be less diversified that you think, according to Landsberg.One mistake that Landsberg sees investors making is doubling down too much on a specific investment theme. Investors bullish on AI may have devised creative ways to play the AI trade outside of the technology sector, such as buying data center real estate investment trusts and utility stocks. This can give them a false sense of security in their portfolio, as it seems like they're exposed to multiple different sectors.However, if all of your investments across sectors are based on the AI theme, you won't experience much derisking.Landsberg points to the market selloff in August this year, where utilities and real estate indices fared better than technology, but individual real estate and utilities stocks with significant exposure to data centers didn't perform so well."I tell people now that we need to be diversified on themes, not just on sectors," Landsberg said. Some other secular growth themes that Landsberg believes will drive stocks include an aging population, cybersecurity, and alternative energy.In addition to making sure you're sufficiently diversified, there are some other steps that you can take to protect your portfolio from inflation. Landsberg identified a few inflation-benefitting trades such as energy, financials, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-in-gold-price-record-highs-safe-haven-2024-10">gold</a>.Some funds that provide exposure to these sectors include the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/the-energy-select-sector-spdr-fund-us81369y5069?miRedirects=1">XLE</a>), the iShares US Financials ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-us-financials-etf-us4642877884?miRedirects=1">IYF</a>), and the Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/goldman-sachs-physical-gold-etf-us38150k1034?miRedirects=1">AAAU</a>)As the end of the year draws near, Landsberg recommends taking a look at your portfolio and rebalancing some positions. If you're overexposed to technology and AI, now is a good time to put money in more inflation-resistant areas.Ultimately, make sure you're investing in high-quality companies with a robust financial profile, he said."You need to have a portion of your portfolio that will do well if inflation starts to move back higher," Landsberg said. "You want companies with pricing power, companies with earnings growth."

Here's how to rebalance your portfolio as these economic indicators flash 'higher for longer' inflation and rates

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes edged up on Tuesday as markets eyed incoming inflation data this week. </li><li>The rally slowed, but stocks added to records notched in Monday's session. </li></ul>US stocks added to records on Tuesday, with the blistering rally since last week slowing slightly as traders prepared to take in new inflation data this week. A five-day rally helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&amp;P 500 notch <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-11/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?srnd=phx-markets">fresh closing highs on Monday</a>, with many assets lumped into the Trump trade seeing a continued boost from the President-Elect's victory. Among them, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">bitcoin</a> came close to hitting the $90,000 mark for the first time in early trading on Tuesday. The crypto industry <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-crypto-industry-donald-trump-election-reserve-regulation-sec-2024-11">expects to benefit</a> from Trump's friendly stance toward digital assets, with markets hoping for less regulation of the space. The rally slowed as markets approached the October consumer inflation report. The consumer price index will be published on Wednesday, and Wall Street will be monitoring for any material shifts in inflation.Economists expect a 2.5% year-over-year jump in CPI, compared to a rise of 2.4% in the prior month. Any meaningful surprise could upend expectations over the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next months.Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 6,008.06, up 0.11%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 44,341.72, up 0.11% (+48.59 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,328.04, up 0.16% </li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/treasury-bond-yields-selloff-risk-trump-trade-tariff-immigration-tax-2024-11?_gl=1*m3ciw*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQxNDkxMy44MjAuMS4xNzMxNDE5NjMzLjYwLjAuMA..">The stock market's Trump bump could end once Treasury yields reach 5%</a>, JPMorgan says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-recession-fears-jump-trump-trade-war-tariffs-2024-11">Trump's proposed trade war boosts chances of a US recession to 75%</a>, according to BCA Research.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tax-cuts-tariffs-stock-market-sp500-inflation-china-trade-war-2024-11?_gl=1*1ipv5dl*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQxNDkxMy44MjAuMS4xNzMxNDE5ODg5LjU2LjAuMA..">Trump's tax cuts could boost S&amp;P 500 earnings by 20% over the next 2 years</a>, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-merger-crude-producer-rosneft-gazprom-lukoil-wsj-2024-11?_gl=1*qhoxcu*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQxNDkxMy44MjAuMS4xNzMxNDIwMjgxLjU3LjAuMA..">A report says Russia is considering merging three oil firms into the world's second-largest producer</a>.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 1.3% to $68.92 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, rose by 1% to $72.62 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was about flat at $2,618 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield climbed five basis points to 4.367%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> rose 4% to $86,262. </li></ul>

Stock market today: Trump rally slows with stocks at record highs ahead of new economic data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Luxury sales in Japan surged due to a weakened yen and increased tourist spending.</li><li>The luxury industry faced a decline in China, making Japan's market growth crucial.</li></ul>If you were looking to shop luxury in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-airlines-free-flights-initiative-could-backfire-experts-2024-10">Japan this summer</a>, you had to get in line.According to Amrita Banta, managing director of luxury insights firm Agility Research &amp; Strategy, luxury stores started admitting customers by appointment only to cope with the meleé of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/things-american-wishes-she-knew-before-visiting-japan-mistakes-2024-9">tourists</a> flocking to Japan to take advantage of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-weak-currency-yen-boosts-foreign-tourism-luxury-purchases-travel-2024-4">weakened yen</a> and cheaper prices on high-end products.The sales surge in Japan has been a much-needed boost for the luxury industry, which has been hard hit by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/whats-behind-china-luxury-goods-slowdown-economy-changing-consumer-tastes-2024-10">a drop in demand in China</a>.In the second quarter of 2024, LVMH's sales in Japan were up 57%, far outpacing its other markets. Gucci owner Kering also saw a 27% uptick in sales in Japan in Q2, while its sales plunged in other markets.<div type="image" title="Shibuya Shopping District, Tokyo, Japan" height="3600" width="5400" msid="114913669" hostid="261" sizebytes="2019376"></div>But in Q3, both LVMH and Kering reported a slowdown in luxury spending in Japan.A mix of the strengthened yen due to Japanese government intervention and economic uncertainty abroad appears to have slowed Japan's shopping boom.Still, while the tourist spending may have faded somewhat, experts say Japanese consumers are emerging from a frugal era and spending on luxury themselves."There's a lot of optimism about Japan in the market," Jelena Sokolova, a luxury analyst at Morningstar, told BI.A combination of wage increases and the strengthening of the yen is driving consumer spending confidence in Japan, Daniel Langer, CEO of brand development and strategy firm Équité and a Pepperdine University luxury professor, told BI over email.But the Japanese aren't just splashing their cash anywhere — a bitter pill for some luxury brands to swallow.<h2 id="493fbccc-5f4a-41a5-8130-deff4524ff2f">Low-key luxury aligns with Japanese values</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hermes-escapes-luxury-industry-slump-lvmh-kering-struggle-2024-10">Hermès</a> is one example of a brand that continues to report strong momentum in Japan.This is partly because its image is in sync with core Japanese values, Martin Roll, global business strategist and senior advisor at consulting giant McKinsey, told BI.Consistency, craftsmanship, and "quality over loud branding" — attributes <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hermes-became-ultimate-status-symbol-2024-2">the Birkin bag maker</a> is known for — align with "Japanese consumers' desire for subtle luxury that conveys a sense of heritage and exclusivity without overt showiness," he said."Hermès and similar brands appeal here because they prioritize quality, subtlety, and minimalism over ostentation, which is key to succeeding in the Japanese luxury space," Roll said.<h2 id="a1d7bb15-45d8-46a7-ae5e-65b8f931680d">The nuances of a Japanese audience</h2>While trend-forward brands have historically done well in regions like India and China with younger populations, "Japan is more of a stable, mature market," Banta said, especially given the country's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-company-shifts-adult-diapers-due-low-birth-rates-babies-2024-3">aging population</a>.Banta said brands like Prada, Louis Vuitton, and Hermès, which have long been seen as epitomizing luxury and have select products with cult followings, will maintain momentum with locals.Still, the young, affluent Japanese consumers — while more likely to self-indulge — retain many of the same values as their elders, Roll said."This group is more willing to invest in high-quality goods that blend tradition with modern self-indulgence, appreciating brands that offer a sophisticated but not overtly showy luxury experience," Roll added.<div type="image" title="The Chanel Store in Tokyo's Ginza district." height="853" width="1280" msid="114913672" hostid="261" sizebytes="149866"></div>Luxury brands that didn't participate in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-economic-outlook-greedflation-inflation-corporate-earnings-slowdown-societe-generale-2024-1">"greedflation"</a> and hiked prices after the pandemic have also fostered trust with Japanese consumers, Langer said.Although Japan has always been an important market for luxury brands, it was eclipsed by China as the world's largest in the early 2010s.But now that China is seemingly no longer the luxury cash cow it once was, brands looking to pivot their attention back to Japan will have to double down on respecting and understanding the locals."Cultural capital is the name of the game in today's world," Langer said."Brands need to be able to inspire Japanese audiences, and this means giving them something they desire," he added. "Brand storytelling, timelessness, and meticulous quality are critical in this market."

Japanese shoppers are entering their spending era. Not all luxury brands stand to benefit.

The vulnerable GOP congressman convinced that economic interest voters will save him from the Trump and abortion backlash

The <keyword id="19987636" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bihar-government" source="keywords">Bihar government</keyword> is making serious efforts to give a fillip to <keyword id="23049947" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="small-scale-and-medium-enterprises" source="Orion">small-scale and medium enterprises</keyword> which would play a crucial role in the overall <keyword id="352701" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-development" source="Orion">economic development</keyword> of the state, a top official of the Industries department said. Around Rs 2,900 crore have been disbursed to nearly 74,540 beneficiaries under two schemes, one of which was launched only last year, for promoting Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises ( <keyword id="19910977" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="MSMEs" source="keywords">MSMEs</keyword>) in the state, the official said. <keyword id="19903647" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bihar" source="keywords">Bihar</keyword> has a strong MSME base. To promote innovation ecosystem and unlock the enormous entrepreneurial potential of the state, the Mukhya Mantri Udyami Yojana (MMUY) and <keyword id="23049946" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bihar-Laghu-Udyami-Yojana" source="keywords">Bihar Laghu Udyami Yojana</keyword> (BLUY) were launched in 2018 and 2023 respectively focusing on promotion of MSMEs in the state. "A total of Rs 2,697 crore was disbursed to 34,441 beneficiaries from 2018 till now under MMUY. Similarly, till date Rs 200 crore of the first instalment has been disbursed to 40,099 beneficiaries under BLUY", Secretary, Department of Industries, Bandana Preyashi told PTI. On the one hand, Bihar is getting big ticket investments for major manufacturing units and on the other hand, the state government is also enabling an ecosystem where the MSMEs can thrive on the ground level for the benefit of the rural economy, Preyashi said. The Bihar Laghu Udyami Yojana aims to provide job opportunities to at least one member of poor families whose monthly income is less than Rs 6,000 a month, she said. The state government is providing Rs 2 lakh to each beneficiary in three instalments to set up and run micro and small industrial and processing units, Preyashi said. The government's objective is promotion of MSMEs through awareness, training and handholding support, the Industries secretary said. The state government is encouraging entrepreneurs and investors through the provision of a safe and sound work environment and basic infrastructural facilities which include land, roads, electricity, and water availability, she said. The Industries secretary further said, "With new policies of the state government, Bihar is witnessing significant investment promotion activities, reinforcing its position as an emerging business and industrial hub in the country. During the Bihar Business Connect 2023, 278 companies signed MoUs, committing to investments totalling Rs 50,530 crore." the secretary said. The state government has implemented the Bihar Industrial Investment Promotion Policy (BIPP), Bihar Logistics Policy 2023, Ethanol Production Incentive Policy 2021 and Textile and Leather Policy 2022 to promote industrial growth and investment in the state. "Under these policies, stage-1 clearance was given to 481 applications, with a proposed investment amount of Rs 4,512.85 crore. A total of 175 units were given clearance for financial incentives with an investment of Rs 2,195.10 crore, an all-time high, since the inception of the state investment promotion policies," she said. In 2023-24, 255 startups were recognized in the state and a total of Rs 11.92 crore has been disbursed as seed funding to these startups. From April 2023 to January 2024, Bihar Industrial Area Development Authority (BIADA) allotted plots/sheds to 427 units having a total investment size of Rs 6,145 crore covering 492 acres of land and also creating 35,224 employment in the state, said the secretary. "Infrastructure development in industrial areas was given top priority. Funds of Rs 409.33 crore were approved under Part I and Rs 212.68 crore for construction of unity mall under special assistance to states in 2023-24. In the current financial year of 2024-25,149 units have been granted stage I clearance for a proposed investment amount in Rs 3,950.48 crore in Bihar State Investment Promotion Board", she said. At present, Bihar's proposal to establish a multi-sector Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Nawanagar and Kumarbagh has been approved by the Government of India. "Authorities concerned are also working on the establishment of Export Promotion Councils (EPCs) in Bihar that will help Bihari Exporters to expand their businesses to international markets", said the secretary. Bihar Chief Minister <keyword id="19907431" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nitish-kumar" source="keywords">Nitish Kumar</keyword> on August 3 this year laid the foundation stone for Rs 1,600 crore cement grinding unit of Ambuja Concrete North Private Limited, a subsidiary of Adani group's Ambuja Cements, in Warisaliganj block in Nawada district. This is considered the largest investment in the state by a cement industry player. "The project is expected to create 250 direct jobs and 1,000 indirect jobs on the site. The project will meet the growing infrastructure needs of Bihar. Adani Group has decided to invest additional Rs 5,500 crore in Bihar in various sectors, including cement manufacturing (in Muzaffarpur), logistics (near Patna) and projects related to agro-industry in Araria, Kishanganj and Begusarai. A total of 40,000 employment will be generated by these investments", said the statement issued by the CMO after the conclusion of the event on August 4.

Bihar government disburses Rs 2,900 crore to 74,540 beneficiaries for promoting MSMEs: Official

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.how</li></ul>Hello there! If you're planning on ordering some takeout this weekend, don't use your work account. Meta fired employees for <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-employees-react-grubhub-meal-credit-firings-2024-10">abusing its $25 Grubhub meal perk</a>.In today's big story, Taylor Swift has a new book coming out, but how she's doing it might <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taylor-swift-disrupt-publishing-industry-eras-tour-book-2024-10">create some bad blood with publishers</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Generative AI is helping Wall Street firms better navigate <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-finance-giants-goldman-sachs-blackstone-perfect-search-generative-ai-2024-10">the mountains of data they're sitting on</a>.</li><li>Tech: Unpacking a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/asml-tsmc-earnings-demand-ai-chips-2024-10">wild few days for the chip industry</a>.</li><li>Business: AWS CEO says 9 out of 10 employees are 'excited' about RTO, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-office-policy-aws-ceo-employees-rto-five-days-2024-10">leaked transcript shows</a>.</li></ul>But first, the publishers are going to hate, hate, hate.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Book publishing (Taylor's version)</h2><div type="image" title="Taylor Swift with money and her book" height="1000" width="2000" msid="114354269" hostid="261" sizebytes="183206"></div>Taylor Swift's "Eras Tour" returns tonight in Miami, but the megastar's influence and power were already on display earlier this week.On Tuesday, Swift announced plans to self-publish "The Eras Tour Book," a behind-the-scenes look at her record-breaking tour that'll be released exclusively at Target on Black Friday.It's the latest example of the billionaire <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taylor-swift-disrupt-publishing-industry-eras-tour-book-2024-10">bucking traditional business norms</a>, writes Business Insider's Samantha Grindell and Madeline Berg.From her music to her tour and the accompanying movie, Swift often avoids industries' typical power players and takes <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taylor-swift-reaches-billionaire-status-amid-monumental-eras-tour-bloomberg-2023-10">a more do-it-yourself approach</a>. The benefits are twofold: Creative control and more money for herself.Which is why Swift's announcement is such a bummer for the publishing industry.News of a Taylor Swift book should have sent a publisher jumping for joy at the potential revenue. (Rest assured, it will be a bestseller.)Big stars like Swift are exactly who book publishers are banking on these days. Instead of unknown authors, books by celebrities are viewed as a better bet.But Swift shaking off publishers to do it herself could inspire other celebrities to follow in her self-publishing footsteps, upending the business. And while few, if any, have such devoted fans, that doesn't mean they won't try.<div type="image" title="Photo of Taylor Swift flexing a bicep onstage at the Eras tour" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114354276" hostid="261" sizebytes="119526"></div>In the meantime, Swift's tour returns to the US as the economy is on the cusp of nailing its soft landing.Last time around, Swift helped prop up an economy battling inflation, slow wage growth, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-is-us-economy-recession-outlook-2023-6">overall bad vibes</a>.Things are in much better shape now. With one interest-rate cut in the books and more (hopefully) on the way, most experts view the risk of a recession as firmly in the rearview mirror.But even so, Miami, New Orleans, and Indianapolis — her remaining US tour dates — won't mind Swift coming to town. The artist's impact on local economies is eye-popping. The revenue generated for local businesses in Glendale, Arizona, the kickoff location for the tour last year, reportedly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taylor-swift-starts-eras-tour-glendale-arizona-swift-city-2023-3">rivaled what the Super Bowl brought in</a>.In total, last year's 53-show run in the US generated <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taylor-swift-eras-tour-helped-us-economy-2023-9">an estimated $4.6 billion in US consumer spending</a>.All that spending does come with some risks. "Mega-events" like Swift concerts create demand shock among consumers <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-outlook-olympics-taylor-swift-us-economy-fed-rate-cuts-2024-8">that could push inflation higher</a>, according to UBS. And with a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">hotter-than-expected September inflation report</a>, we're not fully out of the woods.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Israel says it killed Hamas leader and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-says-killed-hamas-chief-yahya-sinwar-oct-7-mastermind-2024-10">Oct. 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar</a>.</li><li>China triggered more stimulus measures, even as it says its economy is<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-3q-gdp-growth-stock-market-stimulus-2024-10"> showing 'stable growth'</a>.</li><li>TikTok's next big move: Helping creators launch product lines by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktok-is-matching-creators-with-manufacturers-to-make-custom-products-2024-10">connecting them with suppliers</a>.</li><li>Mark Cuban will campaign for Kamala Harris <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-mark-cuban-campaign-swing-states-sec-chair-2024-10">in 3 key swing states</a>.</li><li>Sam Altman risks <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-altman-openai-c-suite-ceo-leadership-changes-2024-10">spreading himself too thin at OpenAI</a>.</li><li>The head of Cubist's centralized high-speed trading unit <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cubist-systemic-strategies-centralized-hft-unit-head-vibhav-bukkapatanam-out-2024-10">is out after less than a year</a>.</li><li>The cofounder of GroupMe and Blade is <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/groupme-splice-cofounder-steve-martocci-supplement-industry-suppco-2024-10">back with a new startup</a>.</li><li>Apple is still waiting for a killer app for the Apple Vision Pro. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-vision-pro-app-problem-developers-2024-10">It may have to wait for some time.</a></li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="A search bar with sparkle emojis on it, on top of a background with money, a Wall St. sign and stock numbers." height="1500" width="2000" msid="114354282" hostid="261" sizebytes="285240"></div><ol><li>Wall Street is searching for answers in its data. Generative AI can help. Financial firms sit on mountains of data, but it's not always easily accessible. Wall Street firms are waking up to the power of using generative AI to help them navigate their massive internal databases. From Goldman Sachs to Blackstone, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-finance-giants-goldman-sachs-blackstone-perfect-search-generative-ai-2024-10">here's how they are doing it</a>.</li><li>Betting odds favor Trump. Investors are adjusting accordingly. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi now favor former President Donald Trump winning the election. That's meant movement across assets <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/donald-trump-trade-rally-betting-markets-kamala-harris-bitcoin-djt-2024-10">investors believe Trump will have a big impact on</a>, like bitcoin, the US dollar, and bank stocks.</li><li>Blackstone isn't a bank, but it's sure starting to look like one. Private lending is now the private-equity giant's largest business by assets, up 22% over the past year. COO Jon Gray said it's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackstone-third-quarter-earnings-private-credit-insurance-unit-aum-2024-10">"very early days" for the credit juggernaut</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="The TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) logo seen on the Taiwanese semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company building in Hsinchu. (" height="683" width="1024" msid="114354273" hostid="261" sizebytes="60052"></div><ol><li>What ASML and TSMC's roller-coaster earnings can tell us. It's been a bumpy week for AI, with a downbeat earnings report from ASML followed by blockbuster results from TSMC. Still, the chip boom is far from over; analysts told BI they expect <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/asml-tsmc-earnings-demand-ai-chips-2024-10">continued AI-chip growth in the short to medium term</a>.</li><li>Be nice to the Tesla bots. The realization that the Optimus robots at Tesla's "We Robot" event last week were remotely controlled sparked criticism from onlookers. But top Nvidia exec Rev Lebaredian told BI that robots interacting with humans — even with help from engineers — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-praises-tesla-ai-optimus-robot-remote-control-concerns-2024-10">is an "amazing advancement" that shouldn't be "demeaned."</a></li><li>Uber's "super app" dreams live on. Uber considered making a bid for travel site Expedia, The Financial Times reported this week. The potential deal would bring the company closer to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/expedia-deal-could-push-uber-closer-khosrowshahi-super-app-vision-2024-10">CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's vision of becoming a one-stop app for transportation and delivery</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Happy cloud with Amazon logo on it." height="1500" width="2000" msid="114354274" hostid="261" sizebytes="156180"></div><ol><li>AWS CEO addresses Amazon's new return-to-office policy. Matt Garman said nine out of 10 employees were "excited" to get back to the office as he explained the reasoning behind the five-day RTO mandate at an all-hands held Thursday. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-office-policy-aws-ceo-employees-rto-five-days-2024-10">A transcript leaked to BI</a> also shows he said there were days when his team "didn't really accomplish anything" because of remote work.</li><li>Netflix beat earnings expectations again. The streamer added more than 5 million new subscribers and notched $9.83 billion in quarterly revenue, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-new-subscriber-numbers-beat-expectations-2024-10">surpassing analysts' predictions</a>. Not very long ago, it was reasonable to wonder how Netflix would pay its bills. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-profit-cash-burn-debt-turnaround-2024-10">Not anymore</a>.</li><li>Texas' economy is on California's heels. While California still has the highest GDP in the US, Texas is close behind. By wooing big companies and new residents, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/california-economic-growth-slipping-behind-texas-gdp-corporate-residents-2024-10">Texas has supercharged its economic growth</a> — but in doing so, has left some residents fed up and priced out.</li></ol><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>American Express and other companies report earnings.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

Taylor Swift is flexing her economic muscles again with the return of her tour and a new book

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hurricane Milton is battering Florida days after Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc on several states.</li><li>Tropical storms are becoming more frequent, powerful, and costly.</li></ul>Hurricane Milton is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-landfall-florida-housing-market-insurance-fema-2024-10">pummeling</a> Florida days after Hurricane Helene <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/before-after-satellite-photos-hurricane-helene-destruction-florida-2024-10">battered several states</a> including North Carolina, causing widespread destruction and more than 220 deaths.The two events are the latest sign that hurricanes are becoming more frequent, more ferocious, and more costly. They're also hitting employment and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworker-strike-hurricane-helene-israel-palestine-iran-supply-chains-inflation-2024-10">economic growth</a>, at least in the short term."Hurricanes are the most costly weather and climate extreme event to impact the US historically, in terms of total dollars and average cost per event," Adam Smith, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), told Business Insider.The US has experienced 363 billion-dollar weather disasters costing a total of $2.6 trillion between 1980 and August 2023, NOAA data shows. Hurricanes accounted for $1.3 trillion or about half the total cost, an average of $22.8 billion per storm.The number of hurricanes striking the mainland US has also jumped from 12 between 1961 and 1970 and between 1971 and 1980, to 18 between 2001 and 2010, and 19 between 2011 and 2020, per NOAA data.Helene has caused an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/analysts-estimate-up-to-34-billion-damage-from-hurricane-helene-2024-10">estimated $34 billion</a> worth of destruction, and Milton threatens to deal tens of billions of dollars in damage too, Jefferies analysts said in a note this week.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-harvey-katrina-comparison-2017-8">Hurricane Harvey</a> in 2017 and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-ian-estimated-cost-compare-most-expensive-us-storms-ever-2022-10">Hurricane Ian</a> in 2022 cost an estimated $159 billion and $119 billion each, ranking behind only Hurricane Katrina's $200 billion toll in 2005.Hurricanes are becoming more costly because the amount and value of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-category-four-storm-real-estate-market-insurance-damages-2024-10">assets exposed and vulnerable</a> to storm damage has increased, Smith said.He also said that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/climate-change-hurricanes-why-storms-are-wetter-stronger-slower-2019-7">climate change</a> — higher ocean surface temperatures fuel stronger hurricanes, and warmer air carries more rain — has led to more rainfall, a greater risk of storm surges, and a higher chance of rapid intensification.The most severe storms have become more intense with about a 10% rise in maximum sustained winds on average, leading to a "roughly 33% increase in destructive potential," Michael Mann, a climate expert at the University of Pennsylvania, told BI.<h2 id="77eeb913-dcd7-49c3-a311-7df4b503d8e4">Economic impacts</h2>Before Milton made landfall, analysts at Oxford Economics said in a note that about 2.8% of US GDP was in its direct path. They estimated that a Category 5 storm could lower fourth-quarter annualized GDP growth by 0.14 percentage points, from a forecasted 2.3% to below 2.2%. Milton was downgraded to Category 3 before striking Florida."For Milton, tourism, trade and transportation will be hit," Ryan Sweet, Oxford's chief US economist, told BI.Helene is already poised to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-economy-israel-iran-war-oil-growth-inflation-hurricane-china-2024-10">reduce nonfarm payrolls</a> for October by 40,000 to 50,000 jobs, and Milton could deal a further blow to employment, he said. Job growth was trending at 167,000 a month, but that number could end up being under 100,000 this month in light of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-strike-costing-50m-per-day-as-negotiations-restart-2024-10">Boeing strikes</a> and Helene, even before accounting for Milton, Sweet said.The most economically impactful hurricanes disrupt energy infrastructure like offshore rigs and refineries, driving up national gas prices. They can also hit home sales and housing starts, and extensive flooding can delay the return of people who evacuated affected areas, and hamper rebuilding efforts, Sweet said.New research finds that hurricanes harm human health more than previously thought, exacerbated by climate change fueling more damaging storms. The upshot is "far more death and destruction," Mann told BI.He said hurricanes are causing "more death and disease, which definitely propagates through the economy."<h2 id="0c1a0582-4066-4b34-9f76-0a4a07c6172a">After the storm</h2>Some research suggests the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricanes-today-more-damaging-costlier-than-they-were-in-1900-2019-11">economic costs of hurricanes</a> are largely offset by the rebuilding efforts that follow. Repairs following a single hurricane can indirectly support nearly 248,000 jobs, generate over $17 billion of labor income, and contribute more than $30 billion to GDP, according to Implan, an economic data provider.In effect, every dollar spent on hurricane repairs generates another $1.72 in the economy, benefiting sectors ranging from retail and housing to banking and oil refining, Implan said."Rebuilding should provide a boost to economic activity in those affected regions in subsequent months, and potentially years," Sweet told BI, quoting from his recent note. "A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-category-five-threatens-florida-fema-funding-2024-10">ton of federal and insurance money</a> will flow into the impacted areas, which will boost economic activity."The damage might be offset for now, but whether that will continue with rising temperatures and soaring costs remains uncertain.Eventually, "increasing hurricane damages will exceed the coping capacities" of the US economy, according to a 2022 paper published by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Hurricanes are becoming more frequent, violent, and costly — plus they're hitting jobs and economic growth

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Harris has proposed expanding the small business tax deduction ten-fold, from $5,000 to $50,000.</li><li>Five female entrepreneurs told BI that many small business owners aren't aware of the plan.</li></ul>Ashley Storck, the 26-year-oldfounder of a digital marketing firm in Madison, Wisconsin, is part of nearly a dozen professional organizations. Only one of them, she said, reached out to inform her about Vice President Kamala Harris' proposal to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-small-businesses-tax-breaks-cut-red-tape-2024-9">increase the small business tax deduction tenfold</a>.Storck considers herself very engaged in Democratic politics — she's been to the White House and introduced President Joe Biden at an event about <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/where-student-loan-forgiveness-stands-borrowers-legal-challenges-biden-relief-2024-10">student loan forgiveness</a> — but she doubts that many entrepreneurs in her critical battleground state know about Harris' small business policies.With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-you-need-to-know-about-kamala-harris-opportunity-economy-2024-9">economy</a> as the driving issue this election, Harris has introduced a slate of policies targeted toward entrepreneurs,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-tax-deduction-plan-small-business-startup-cost-2024-10"> including her plan to expand the small business tax deduction from its current $5,000 to $50,000</a>. Under the proposed legislation, new entrepreneurs could take advantage of the $50,000 deduction right away or a few years after launching, to help lower taxes once they start turning a profit.Rhett Buttle, the co-executive director of Small Business Roundtable and a former business advisor for Biden, previously told Business Insider that the expanded deduction would be particularly helpful for women and people of color who have a harder time accessing capital. But BI spoke to five female <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-billionaires-investors-kamala-harris-mark-cuban-reid-hoffman-2024-8">entrepreneurs</a>, all of whom said many people aren't aware that the proposal even exists.Neither Hama Hinnawi, 46, nor Patricia Oswald, 55, had heard of Harris' pitch before speaking to BI. Owners of a fashion brand and company that sells powered drying racks respectively, they are both members of the Women's Business Development Center and doubted many of their peers are aware, either. Hinnawi even said she called the company that deals with her tax returns to see if any of them knew about it — they didn't."There isn't one place that you can go to learn all this stuff about small businesses," Hinnawi told BI. Oswald thinks that small business advocacy organizations and financial institutions that provide loans should send the word out about candidates' proposals.Anne Zimmerman, 71, co-founded one such organization, Small Business for America's Future, in addition to her Ohio-based accounting firm for small businesses. She said that there's not enough news coverage of specific proposals for current and aspiring entrepreneurs, whom the proposal would help."You've got to drill down and find it yourself," she told BI about the legislative details. The entrepreneurs she advises are hungry for policies that directly impact their operations, but Zimmerman said most don't read past the headlines to learn about the specifics.Given her political involvement, Storck trusts that she would have learned of Harris' proposal eventually. But she worries that the same doesn't go for everyone else in her state and wishes campaigns would reach out to key community stakeholders, like chambers of commerce."Especially in rural Wisconsin and with those small businesses that aren't as politically engaged, it's 100% possible that they're not being sent this information or even aware that this is a policy she's proposing," Storck told BI. Harris is struggling with rural voters in Wisconsin and the other <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-names-tim-walz-vice-president-pick-minnesota-2024-7">Blue Wall battlegrounds of Michigan and Pennsylvania</a>.And in deep-blue Chicago, Taylor McCleneghan, 36, had heard of Harris' plans, but generally doesn't think there's enough educational outreach about the tax rules for small business owners. McCleneghan, who owns a product development company, is a member of multiple small business advisory groups and considers herself relatively well-informed. Still, she struggles to understand the thicket of financial questions entrepreneurs face."Navigating tax implications for starting a business when you don't have any family or friends who are entrepreneurs or you're starting completely self-funded with very little — that literacy is still a major hole," she said. McCleneghan is a lifelong Democrat, but she has family members who are entrepreneurs and support Trump. All, she said, could benefit from knowing more about what politicians are offering by way of support."I think all, regardless of size or regardless of political leaning, have leaned on government services to get their business going," she said.Whether the target audience knows about Harris' promise or not, it remains just that — a promise. Should she win the election, Congress would need to pass legislation to turn her expanded tax deduction idea into a reality. Despite the prevailing congressional gridlock, four tax and small business experts that BI previously spoke with said local entrepreneurship is a rare point of potential bipartisan agreement."I'm not a political economist, but I think it is very hard for a traditional, small C conservative Republican to go back to their home district and say, 'I voted against things that will help you open a business,'" Mary Hansen, an economics professor at American University, said.

Many of the small business owners Harris is targeting say they've never heard of a key economic proposal

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors should favor stocks over bonds as the economy supports risk-on sentiment, Goldman analysts say.</li><li>The US economy is in a pro-risk, late-cycle environment due to Fed easing and a strong economy.</li></ul>Risk-on sentiment is back after a brief flight to safety over the summer, and that should support stocks over bonds in the coming months, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note Tuesday. They write that the US stock market is set to deliver more attractive returns than bonds as the economy supports higher risk in a late-cycle environment.A late-cycle backdrop—in which the economy nears its peak and policy eases to prepare for potential slowing ahead—is typically pro-risk, unless growth momentum slows or inflation accelerates to spark policy tightening.The analysts say the reverse has been true in recent months amid accelerating growth and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">easing inflation</a> in the US, with strong economic data and policy easing fueling a more risk-supportive environment.In July, the analysts shifted their rating to neutral on stocks and raised their rating to neutral on bonds after bullish sentiment and slowing growth momentum sparked concerns of a correction, but stocks bounced back quickly, they noted."After the summer 'risk off', risky assets quickly recovered due to a dovish Fed pivot, China stimulus, and better-than-expected US data," the analysts said.The analysts have now returned equities to overweight and credit to underweight, explaining global equities now face lower risks."Global equities had a roundtrip and are roughly flat since. Better US data and supportive policy have helped lower downside risks near-term," they said.Fed cutting cycles in general tend to support risky assets as long as the economy avoids a recession, the analysts say. Recession risk appears low amid <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">strong labor market data</a> and the Fed's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*1b7jz2v*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTAwMjgzNi4yNjkuMS4xNzI5MDAyOTM1LjM3LjAuMA..">jumbo 50 basis point rate cut</a> last month, with the odds of a recession in the next year down to just 15%, they forecast.This risk-on, late-cycle backdrop means stocks will benefit from higher earnings growth and valuations as bonds face downside risks, the analysts say."During late-cycle backdrops, equities can deliver attractive returns driven by earnings growth and valuation expansion, while credit total returns are usually constrained by tight credit spreads and rising yields," the analysts said.The analysts add that while the current environment supports more risky investments, there remains potential for volatility due to geopolitical conflicts, the US election season and unfavorable moves in growth and inflation.But even this uncertainty could boost risky assets, they say."We think that uncertainty relief could also support risky assets into year-end – this is why we prefer to be long with selective hedges rather than staying neutral equities," they said.

Stocks beat bonds as risk-on returns amid Fed easing and strong economic data, Goldman Sachs says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Vice President Kamala Harris proposed eliminating college degree requirements for 500,000 federal jobs.</li><li>She also announced plans to double apprenticeship programs should she win the election.</li></ul>Vice President Kamala Harris wants to make it easier to get a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-value-of-college-higher-education-student-debt-tuition-2023-12">job without a college degree</a> if she wins the election. During a campaign speech in Pittsburgh on Wednesday, Harris outlined a new element of her economic policy platform: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-millennials-skipping-college-living-paycheck-to-paycheck-2024-5">eliminating college degree requirements</a> for thousands of federal workers and bolstering <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-i-didnt-go-college-university-apprenticeship-no-debt-2023-9">apprenticeship</a> programs to provide Americans with more options should they choose to skip out on traditional higher education."We will double the number of registered apprenticeships by the end of my first term," Harris said during her remarks. "Eliminate degree requirements while increasing skills development for half a million federal jobs. And challenge our private sector to make a similar commitment to emphasizing skills, not just degrees."According to additional <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://kamalaharris.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Policy_Book_Economic-Opportunity.pdf">details</a> released by her campaign, Harris is proposing to get rid of "unnecessary degree requirements" for 500,000 federal workers to "address barriers holding workers without a degree back from working in jobs that they can succeed in."This proposal comes at a time when a growing number of Americans are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/college-enrollment-declining-student-debt-job-market-politics-2023-3">questioning the value of a college degree</a>. While Harris and President Joe Biden have worked to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/student-loan-debt-cancellation-payment-pause-borrowers-disabilities-defrauded-2021-6">cancel billions of dollars in student debt</a> for millions of federal borrowers, the cost of college remains high, and many are still struggling with high debt loads. As a result, many younger Americans are choosing to skip college in favor of career paths that don't require degrees.The federal government is one of the largest employers in the US —<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ourpublicservice.org/fed-figures/a-profile-of-the-2023-federal-workforce/"> over 2 million</a> federal employees were in the workforce in 2023, growing over 7% since 2019. Harris' proposal would likely draw in more workers to the federal government who could not afford college or decided not to attend.Eliminating degree requirements is a rare issue both Harris and Trump can agree on — in 2020, Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/06/29/trump-puts-skills-over-degrees-federal-hiring-college-groups-confident-value-degrees">signed</a> an executive order requiring some federal employers to make it easier for those without degrees to secure jobs.It's also an issue that's been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-republicans-states-governors-drop-college-degrees-jobs-shapiro-hogan-2023-3">picking up steam</a> at the local and state level. In 2022, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan announced the state would be opening up thousands of jobs to workers without degrees, and Utah's Gov. Spencer Cox dropped college degree requirements from 98% of the state's jobs that same year. Still, college remains the primary route for the majority of Americans. Harris' campaign wrote in its newly released policy book that "for those who do seek college degrees, Vice President Harris will provide a pathway to the middle class through high-quality, affordable education." That would entail continued work to cancel student debt and make college more affordable by increasing the Pell Grant award and strengthening public education, per the policy book.Harris has not yet outlined specific details on any student-debt relief initiatives should she win the election. She has stood behind the Biden administration's efforts to implement the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/student-loan-debt-borrowers-apply-income-driven-repayment-save-plan-2023-7">SAVE income-driven repayment plan</a> to make payments cheaper for borrowers, along with Biden's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-will-take-cancel-student-debt-higher-education-act-2023-7">second try at broader student-loan forgiveness</a> under the Higher Education Act.However, both of those plans are facing legal challenges, leaving borrowers hoping for relief in limbo.As Business Insider <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/alternatives-to-college-trade-school-gen-z-careers-education-2024-9">has previously reported</a>, student debt is a key reason Americans — particularly Gen Zers — are choosing to forego a college degree. LeLaina Wakeham, 25, told BI that she didn't think she needed a college degree to be successful, despite most of her peers choosing to go that route after high school, and she now financially supports herself in a real estate job."I was taught that the only way supposedly I'll be able to learn is if I go to college and get a business degree to teach me what I can teach myself," she said. "That's crazy."

Kamala Harris is embracing the degree-free wave — and thousands of workers could benefit

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Both Trump and Harris are proposing policies that defy economic reality, Howard Marks wrote.</li><li>Trump's tariff and tax plans ignore the potential costs associated with them, the billionaire investor said.</li></ul>The presidential election is running on promises that just don't hold up, according to billionaire investor Howard Marks."Like me, you've undoubtedly noticed that politicians ranging from former President Trump and Vice President Harris to down-ballot candidates are back to making promises that ignore economic reality," Marks wrote in his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/shall-we-repeal-the-laws-of-economics">latest memo</a>.These proposals either disregard the costs that come with them or show a failed understanding of the problem they hope to address, the Oaktree Capital founder wrote.Marks emphasized that he was neither dismissing nor promoting either candidate, and took aim at policy ideas on both sides of the aisle.<h2 id="d3caa353-6fb1-4806-bb6f-b551a0e1c2fc">Donald Trump: Tariffs and taxes</h2>In Trump's case, plans for higher tariffs on virtually all US imports are equivalent to a price hike on average American consumers, Marks said.Trump has frequently disregarded this <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-policy-barrier-income-tax-rate-hikes-krugman-2024-7#:~:text=Trump%27s%20wide%2Dreaching%20tariff%20plan,%25%2C%20Nobel%2Dwinning%20economist%20says&amp;text=Trump%27s%20proposed%20tariffs%20would%20benefit,%2Dtax%20income%2C%20he%20said">argument as a false alarm</a>, despite warnings of a tariff-led <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariff-outlook-trade-policy-income-tax-consequences-fiscal-crisis-2024-7">US economic shock</a>. Instead, the former president has emphasized that 10% across-the-board duties would correct trade inequalities and bring back domestic production, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-plan-inflation-policy-impact-trade-war-china-rates-2024-5">with no risk of inflation</a>.Marks agreed that tariffs might stimulate US output, but higher taxes on foreign goods discourage low-cost imports. As these disappear, consumers should prepare for higher prices. One think tank estimated that these could amount to an additional <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-10-tariff-proposal-cost-households-1500-extra-presidential-election-2024-3">$1,500 cost on households</a> a year.The billionaire investor also scrutinized Trump's tax proposals.If elected, he has vowed to extend the expiring 2017 tax cut, keeping the corporate tax rate at 21%. But Marks warned that this will increase the national deficit by $5.8 trillion in the next decade, or $4.1 trillion if the cut leads to a stimulative impact.In recent years, scrutiny has mounted over US overspending and the rise of federal debt. Marks noted that annual interest on national debt now exceeds the defense budget — and will eventually need to be addressed."The truth is, deficits encourage the economic growth that most people enjoy, and spending more than the government takes in permits officials to give away 'free stuff,' thereby gaining votes," he said. "But doing this perpetually requires ignoring the laws of economics, running up debts in the apparent belief that they'll never have to be paid. Can it go on without end? We'll see, but I would think not."<h2 id="10164c8d-4177-48cd-8562-3dd9ee36ceea">Kamala Harris: Price gouging and housing</h2>Marks' primary criticism aimed at Harris' anti-price gouging policy.Gouging happens when corporations lift prices for their benefit, taking advantage of supply-demand imbalances — such as during a natural disaster or in a pandemic.While Harris has voiced a desire to tackle grocery inflation, Marks isn't convinced that price hikes have stemmed from bad intent on the part of corporations."There's nothing wrong with trying to bring down the cost of necessities. However, the best way to do this is to encourage additions to supply. Another way is to not overstimulate demand by injecting excessive liquidity into the economy," he said. "Mandating lower prices is generally the least effective way to get them."Economists have generally been split on whether Harris' gouging <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-economic-plan-price-controls-gouging-food-inflation-election-2024-8">policy amounts to price controls</a>, though proponents say this is misleading.Marks also considered Harris' proposal for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-kamala-harris-plans-to-build-3-million-new-homes-2024-8">$25,000 in downpayment assistance to first-time homebuyers.</a> Since the pandemic, the housing market has become increasingly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/california-demographia-housing-markets-affordability-crisis-home-prices-selling-sunset-2024-6">unaffordable</a>, with prospective buyers facing low supply and high costs."Certainly, it's hard these days for young people to come up with the cash needed to become homeowners," Marks wrote. "The problem here is that giving a million would-be buyers $25,000 each, or $25 billion in all, would almost certainly result in an immediate increase in home prices, eliminating much of the hoped-for benefit from the program."

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