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The <keyword id="19987636" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bihar-government" source="keywords">Bihar government</keyword> is making serious efforts to give a fillip to <keyword id="23049947" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="small-scale-and-medium-enterprises" source="Orion">small-scale and medium enterprises</keyword> which would play a crucial role in the overall <keyword id="352701" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-development" source="Orion">economic development</keyword> of the state, a top official of the Industries department said. Around Rs 2,900 crore have been disbursed to nearly 74,540 beneficiaries under two schemes, one of which was launched only last year, for promoting Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises ( <keyword id="19910977" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="MSMEs" source="keywords">MSMEs</keyword>) in the state, the official said. <keyword id="19903647" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bihar" source="keywords">Bihar</keyword> has a strong MSME base. To promote innovation ecosystem and unlock the enormous entrepreneurial potential of the state, the Mukhya Mantri Udyami Yojana (MMUY) and <keyword id="23049946" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bihar-Laghu-Udyami-Yojana" source="keywords">Bihar Laghu Udyami Yojana</keyword> (BLUY) were launched in 2018 and 2023 respectively focusing on promotion of MSMEs in the state. "A total of Rs 2,697 crore was disbursed to 34,441 beneficiaries from 2018 till now under MMUY. Similarly, till date Rs 200 crore of the first instalment has been disbursed to 40,099 beneficiaries under BLUY", Secretary, Department of Industries, Bandana Preyashi told PTI. On the one hand, Bihar is getting big ticket investments for major manufacturing units and on the other hand, the state government is also enabling an ecosystem where the MSMEs can thrive on the ground level for the benefit of the rural economy, Preyashi said. The Bihar Laghu Udyami Yojana aims to provide job opportunities to at least one member of poor families whose monthly income is less than Rs 6,000 a month, she said. The state government is providing Rs 2 lakh to each beneficiary in three instalments to set up and run micro and small industrial and processing units, Preyashi said. The government's objective is promotion of MSMEs through awareness, training and handholding support, the Industries secretary said. The state government is encouraging entrepreneurs and investors through the provision of a safe and sound work environment and basic infrastructural facilities which include land, roads, electricity, and water availability, she said. The Industries secretary further said, "With new policies of the state government, Bihar is witnessing significant investment promotion activities, reinforcing its position as an emerging business and industrial hub in the country. During the Bihar Business Connect 2023, 278 companies signed MoUs, committing to investments totalling Rs 50,530 crore." the secretary said. The state government has implemented the Bihar Industrial Investment Promotion Policy (BIPP), Bihar Logistics Policy 2023, Ethanol Production Incentive Policy 2021 and Textile and Leather Policy 2022 to promote industrial growth and investment in the state. "Under these policies, stage-1 clearance was given to 481 applications, with a proposed investment amount of Rs 4,512.85 crore. A total of 175 units were given clearance for financial incentives with an investment of Rs 2,195.10 crore, an all-time high, since the inception of the state investment promotion policies," she said. In 2023-24, 255 startups were recognized in the state and a total of Rs 11.92 crore has been disbursed as seed funding to these startups. From April 2023 to January 2024, Bihar Industrial Area Development Authority (BIADA) allotted plots/sheds to 427 units having a total investment size of Rs 6,145 crore covering 492 acres of land and also creating 35,224 employment in the state, said the secretary. "Infrastructure development in industrial areas was given top priority. Funds of Rs 409.33 crore were approved under Part I and Rs 212.68 crore for construction of unity mall under special assistance to states in 2023-24. In the current financial year of 2024-25,149 units have been granted stage I clearance for a proposed investment amount in Rs 3,950.48 crore in Bihar State Investment Promotion Board", she said. At present, Bihar's proposal to establish a multi-sector Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Nawanagar and Kumarbagh has been approved by the Government of India. "Authorities concerned are also working on the establishment of Export Promotion Councils (EPCs) in Bihar that will help Bihari Exporters to expand their businesses to international markets", said the secretary. Bihar Chief Minister <keyword id="19907431" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nitish-kumar" source="keywords">Nitish Kumar</keyword> on August 3 this year laid the foundation stone for Rs 1,600 crore cement grinding unit of Ambuja Concrete North Private Limited, a subsidiary of Adani group's Ambuja Cements, in Warisaliganj block in Nawada district. This is considered the largest investment in the state by a cement industry player. "The project is expected to create 250 direct jobs and 1,000 indirect jobs on the site. The project will meet the growing infrastructure needs of Bihar. Adani Group has decided to invest additional Rs 5,500 crore in Bihar in various sectors, including cement manufacturing (in Muzaffarpur), logistics (near Patna) and projects related to agro-industry in Araria, Kishanganj and Begusarai. A total of 40,000 employment will be generated by these investments", said the statement issued by the CMO after the conclusion of the event on August 4.

Bihar government disburses Rs 2,900 crore to 74,540 beneficiaries for promoting MSMEs: Official

India’s Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), <keyword id="20690607" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="V-Anantha-Nageswaran" source="keywords">V Anantha Nageswaran</keyword>, remains optimistic about the nation’s economic prospects despite a slower-than-expected <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> in the second quarter of FY2024-25. Speaking at the Bharat @100 Summit hosted by Assocham, he said that the fundamental health of the economy remains robust, according to a report by aNI. Nageswaran highlighted several indicators demonstrating the economy’s resilience. “If you run through the checklist for the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword>, the health is pretty robust,” he noted, pointing to controlled levels of external debt as a share of GDP, declining non-performing assets in the banking system, and stable inflation trends. Although certain food items have caused inflationary spikes, their impact is limited within the overall consumer price index basket, he explained. The CEA praised the shift in fiscal expenditure priorities over the past seven years, with greater focus on capital investments rather than revenue spending. This reallocation, he suggested, has bolstered long-term economic stability and growth potential. India’s GDP growth for the July-September quarter was 5.4%, significantly below the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 7%. While this has sparked concerns among economists, Nageswaran urged against overreacting. Erratic monsoons and excessive rainfall disrupted economic activity in Q2, he explained, while global uncertainties and supply chain pressures further weighed on growth. Despite these challenges, he maintained confidence in the broader growth narrative, citing improvements in key economic metrics. For instance, India’s gross capital formation has risen from 27.3% of GDP in the second decade of the 2000s to 30.8% today. Private consumption remains steady, and exports—spanning both services and manufacturing—continue to perform well even amid challenging global conditions. Nageswaran also underscored India’s growing competitiveness in international trade. He noted that the nation’s total <keyword id="24325087" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports-as-a-percentage-of-GDP" source="keywords">exports as a percentage of GDP</keyword> now surpass China’s, showcasing its resilience and adaptability in a shifting global trade environment. However, he cautioned against reading too much into quarterly fluctuations, highlighting the impact of geopolitical developments such as trade restrictions from the US on critical minerals and rare earths, as well as policy shifts in China. These external factors, he suggested, are likely to persist and may continue influencing short-term economic trends. (with ANI inputs)

Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Spain is looking to immigrants to help boost its economy.</li><li>Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has said migration is crucial for the country's prosperity.</li></ul>Spain is looking to immigrants to help boost its economy and fill gaps in its workforce.Speaking to parliament on Wednesday, Spanish Prime Minister <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqbRYeyo4cs">Pedro Sánchez</a> promoted migration as a means of fueling prosperity in the country, arguing that it offered an effective way of tackling what he called a "demographic challenge."Spain's economy and labor market face significant challenges from an aging population and low birth rate.Eurostat data put Spain's birth rate at 1.16 births per woman in 2022, the second-lowest in the EU, while the Spanish central bank has said that population aging is "one of the greatest structural challenges facing the Spanish economy."Sánchez said that migration may offer the answer to those problems, saying it had historically been one of "the great drivers of the development of nations.""Spain needs to choose between being an open and prosperous country or a closed, poor country," he added.Sánchez also used his speech to dispel certain myths and "disinformation" about immigrants, saying that "hatred and xenophobia have been — and are — the greatest destroyer of nations.""The reality, ladies and gentlemen, is that foreigners are neither better nor worse than us. They are equal. They are people with their virtues, their defects, their dreams, and their fears," he said.It comes as other EU members have sought to clamp down on immigration.Germany has tightened border controls to tackle irregular migration, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.government.se/government-policy/swedens-new-migration-policy/">Sweden</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/17/doctors-criticise-finlands-proposal-to-withhold-healthcare-for-migrants">Finland</a> have both announced anti-immigration plans.In the US, the run-up to the presidential election has also seen immigration come under the spotlight.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-mass-deportation-immigraiton-plan-federal-reserve-inflation-2024-9">Former President Donald Trump</a> has drawn particular attention to the issue, often using inflammatory rhetoric to describe immigrants.Trump has also vowed to enact the "largest domestic deportation in American history" should he be elected in November.

Spain is betting on immigrants to boost its economy 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, way under the forecast of 106,000.</li><li>The unemployment rate remained at 4.1% as expected.</li></ul>The US economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, falling way short of the forecast of 106,000.The unemployment rate in October matched expectations and held steady at 4.1%.Economists and labor market watchers expected job growth to slow after the back-to-back natural disasters of Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton in late September and early October disrupted life in several states."October data from the household and establishment surveys are the first collected since Hurricanes Helene and Milton struck the United States," a news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday said. "These hurricanes caused severe damage in the southeast portion of the country."Labor strife also probably weakened October's job growth numbers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said before Friday's news release that around 44,000 hotel workers, Boeing workers, and others were on strike as data for the report was being gathered.Those two factors weighing on the headline job creation numbers mean the Federal Reserve will likely take this month's report with a grain of salt when deciding whether to pause or continue its interest rate cuts."The Federal Reserve will likely look through the noisy October jobs report and rely on the totality of labor market data which continues to point to a controlled downshift in job creation and labor supply absorption," EY senior economist Lydia Boussour said ahead of the report.The mixed results in the jobs report could complicate the Fed's interest rate plans into next year. The report is just one of many pieces of data Fed members will rely on when making their decision next week. Before the new data release, traders overwhelmingly thought the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, which would be less than the previous 50-basis-point cut in September.The new jobs report is the last US employment report before the presidential election on November 5. An October survey from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnorc.org/projects/registered-voters-are-split-on-trusting-harris-or-trump-to-handle-economic-issues/">AP-NORC</a> found that 43% of registered voters "trust" Kamala Harris can do a better job handling jobs and unemployment, close to the 41% of registered voters that said Donald Trump.This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

The US added very few jobs in October after hurricanes and strikes shook the economy

Union Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> highlighted India's significant progress in electrification, <keyword id="23692737" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="water-accessibility" source="keywords">water accessibility</keyword>, and <keyword id="20879840" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-empowerment" source="keywords">economic empowerment</keyword> during a fireside chat with John J Hamre, President and CEO of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in Washington, DC. Highlighting the progress made in <keyword id="23003732" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-electrification" source="keywords">rural electrification</keyword>, <keyword id="19916494" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sitharaman" source="keywords">Sitharaman</keyword> highlighted that every village in India now has access to electricity. She noted that in 2014, many villages across India, including those near state capitals, lacked even basic infrastructure for electrification. She said "I don't think any village in India is unelectrified today. Households have received the connections. So, if I remember the situation in 2014, there were still many villages in many parts of India, some even very close to the state capital, provincial headquarters, without even a pole to receive the electric wires. Now, all that has been overcome. Houses have got their electricity." The Finance Minister also discussed the <keyword id="19971121" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jal-Jeevan-Mission" source="keywords">Jal Jeevan Mission</keyword>, a program initiated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to provide tap water connections to every household. She explained, "Earlier, one tap water connection was provided to a village, from where everyone would take water to their home. But under the 'Jal Jeevan Mission,' each and every house gets a tap water connection." Sitharaman emphasized the positive impact of this initiative on health, sanitation, and convenience for millions of Indian families. Turning to the economic empowerment of <keyword id="20101496" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="municipalities" source="keywords">municipalities</keyword> and urban centers, Sitharaman noted that these local governments are receiving increased autonomy and financial support. She explained that municipalities receive a portion of taxes collected by the central government, along with additional funds based on the Finance Commission's recommendations. "Over and above, today, we are enhancing their capacities to raise resources from the market. Municipalities are a very powerful instrument of economic development and they, on their own, are raising a lot of resources," she added. Sitharaman also expressed confidence in India's economic growth and its appeal to <keyword id="20632552" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-investors" source="keywords">global investors</keyword>. "The policies are working, reforms are happening, and they shall continue to happen," she stated, adding that "greater liberalisation of the economy will be there and, in a way, we are accessing newer markets and speaking about the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword> in more avenues and platforms that will attract more investors." With ongoing reforms and increased global engagement, Sitharaman noted, India is solidifying its position as a significant player on the world stage, expanding its economic reach and inviting foreign investment.

No village in India left without access to electricity, claims FM Nirmala Sitharaman

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil prices ended down 7% last week and are lower this year-to-date, despite Middle East tensions.</li><li>China's economic downturn, the US shale boom, and clean energy are contributing to current oil price trends.</li></ul>The oil markets aren't what they used to be, and two of the world's biggest producers of the commodity are feeling the pressure.Oil prices have been depressed this year because <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-price-today-middle-east-israel-hezbollah-conflict-china-economy-2024-10">China</a> — the world's largest oil importer — is in a prolonged economic downturn. The US' massive boom in oil production over the last 15 years has also kept prices low.Now, Saudi Arabia and Russia are both trying to diversify their economies away from energy, which makes up about 40% and 20% of their GDP, respectively.With the shift, Saudi Arabia and Russia are trying to create new economic engines that can sustain the country for decades, Abishur Prakash, the founder of The Geopolitical Business, a strategy advisory firm in Toronto, told Business Insider.The existential reorientation comes amid what Prakash terms a "geopolitical misalignment," even in the face of a potential supply disruption."The reality is that Middle Eastern oil supplies are in the bull's-eye of geopolitics. A potential back-and-forth between Israel and Iran, which is increasingly likely, will draw in the region's energy ecosystem," he said.But this year, markets have largely shrugged off supply concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict — a break from history, when regional problems sent prices higher.<h2 id="45bcbf13-524d-48a5-aa00-144efa7dd75c">Moving away from oil</h2><a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&amp;t=6.">Saudi Arabia and Russia</a> tied for the world's second-largest oil producer after the US. Last year, they each accounted for 11% of the world's oil supply.While Saudi Arabia and Russia are still the world's top oil exporters, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61584">US — which posted record oil shipments in 2023 — is fast becoming a competitor</a> for market share.In 2016, Saudi Arabia launched a grand <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vision-2030-saudi-arabia-plan-future-proof-oil-economy-2023-8">Vision 2030</a> plan to transform its oil-dependent economy into a more diversified one that includes tourism and sports as key growth pillars.Recently, the kingdom has been indicating that it's frustrated with low oil prices. It's giving up its $100 per barrel price target and is ready to increase oil output, the <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd">Financial Times</a> reported in late September.This means that Saudi Arabia is looking to corner a larger market share instead of targeting higher profit margins by restricting output.Russia has also expressed a desire to stop over-relying on oil exports."We are moving towards reducing the share of volatile income and reducing Russia's dependence on oil and gas in favor of boosting our domestic economy," Anton Siluanov, Russia's finance minister, told <a target="_blank" href="https://russian.rt.com/business/article/1379636-minfin-anton-siluanov-intervyu">RT Television's Arabic</a> service earlier this month.He said that Russia would instead aim to boost its domestic economy but did not specify how.Russia is already moving its trade eastward to address Western sanctions. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.energyintel.com/00000192-ae46-dc01-adba-efff87000000">Saudi Arabia,</a> too, is looking to sell more oil to developing countries, whose electric vehicle adoption lags behind China and the West.Asia's emerging economies are expected to drive <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/global-oil-demand-prices-supply-opec-us-crude-producers-iea-2024-6">global oil demand</a> over the rest of the decade, as the world's consumption rises from 101.7 million barrels a day in 2023 to 105.6 million barrels per day by 2030, according to a June report from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.iea.org/news/slowing-demand-growth-and-surging-supply-put-global-oil-markets-on-course-for-major-surplus-this-decade">International Energy Agency</a>.<h2 id="6ae61431-8898-4c52-9abf-24b4a2055996">Prices, renewable energy, and the US all play a role</h2>Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over fears of a widening war, oil prices haven't been on the climb.To be sure, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-prediction-brent-crude-israel-iran-opec-demand-citi-2024-10">oil prices could still</a> soar if the issues in the Middle East worsen.And there were several price spikes — such as in early October over concerns that Iranian oil facilities could be hit and in August over tensions in the Middle East — but they were shortlived. Oil prices dropped about 7% last week after the concerns subsided.International benchmark <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent</a> crude futures are down about 4% this year to date to around $74 a barrel, and US <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate</a> futures are down 1.3% so far this year to around $70 a barrel.A key contributor to the price trend comes from the US, which has witnessed a significant rise in oil production over the last 15 years following the shale oil boom.Matthew Huber, a Syracuse University professor who specializes in energy, climate politics, and resource geography, said the US has nudged Saudi Arabia out of its role as a swing producer."I think the US has now overtaken this role and because we're not in the Middle East, geopolitical conflict there is less impactful," Huber added.Then there's renewable energy."The explosion of electric vehicle adoption in China (and presumably or eventually in the US and Europe) means the writing is on the wall and we're going to reach 'peak demand' for oil sometime soon," said Huber. "It was always a good idea to diversify one's economy away from just oil but now more than ever."<h2 id="f0b0eb00-b6b7-4f2f-9acd-d2d555ca6010">The role of OPEC</h2>The changing dynamics of oil also sharpens the long-standing question of OPEC's influence and relevance. The oil producer group led by Saudi Arabia accounts for about 30% of global crude production."It goes in cycles. They were obviously relevant in the 1970s when they were able to increase prices almost single-handedly," said Huber."But the problem is when oil prices spike, it sends oil companies searching for temporarily profitable oil," he added, referring to the US shale boom as the most recent example.OPEC also faces rifts within its members, who have competing priorities."The big question now is whether OPEC members are all aligned in terms of oil targets," said The Geopolitical Business's Prakash, who added that not all OPEC members may be on board with Saudi Arabia's plan to boost production.A potential Trump presidency in the US could drive <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-trump-win-election-financials-energy-rbc-2024-10">domestic oil and gas production.</a>"If OPEC can't bring everybody together, and members go their separate ways, it will lead to a further polarization of the Middle East," said Prakash."Instead of energy bringing the region together, like it did in the past, energy coupled with geopolitics could fragment the Middle East," he said.

2 of the world's biggest oil producers are looking for new ways to power their economies

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bank of America cited three risks that could upend corporate earnings growth, a key driver of stock returns.</li><li>One potential headwind is Trump's proposed tariff plan, BofA said.</li></ul>The stock market has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">riding high</a> since Donald Trump won the presidential election.One main driver of that has been investors pricing in strong profit growth in the future, seen as a direct byproduct of Trump's plans to cut the corporate tax rate and loosen regulation.Although <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/bank-of-america">Bank of America</a>'s year-end target for the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> is slightly above current levels, new research from the firm's equity-strategy team laid out three developments that could derail the ongoing "earnings-per-share upcycle" that's powering gains.First, an economic recession could significantly undercut earnings growth, drawing S&amp;P EPS down 10% to 20%.Though a US downturn isn't BofA's base case, the bank cited that recession risk is a real possibility under incoming president Donald Trump.That will depend on which policies the incoming administration prioritizes, analysts wrote in a separate note. In a scenario where Trump pushes dramatic immigration curbs and protectionist trade policies amid minimal fiscal easing, the economy would sink into recession.Peak-to-trough profit drawdowns of 20% are typical in an average recession. Under this scenario, EPS would drop to $195-$220 next year.To be sure, BofA also sees chances of blowout growth, if the president-elect de-emphasizes trade and immigration restrictions in favor of tax cuts and deregulation. In this case, GDP growth could even exceed 3% in 2025.Second, if Trump's trade plans are implemented, retaliatory tariffs could trigger a 10% hit to EPS.During his campaign, the president-elect pledged to implement a 10% duty on all foreign imports into the US. That wouldn't apply to Chinese products, which would face a 60% rate instead.If Trump stays true to his word, BofA expects US foreign sales to take on a 3% to 4% hit as the rest of the world establishes its own retaliatory tariffs.In the mounting trade war, industrials and semiconductor stocks would be most at risk, the bank said.Third, a dramatic upswing in bond yields could slash EPS by another 10%.BofA's worst-case scenario would be if the 10-year Treasury yield surges to 7%, a situation that could be prompted if Trump's tariff and immigration reductions spark an inflation shock.If this were to happen, the yield jump implies that the Purchasing Managers Index would hit 43 by 2024's year-end.This measure monitors the health of US manufacturing and indicates a contraction whenever its reading stands below 50. As of October, PMI registered a 46.5 level.While a contracting manufacturing base would cut into EPS, higher bond yields could also weigh on equity exposure. BofA noted that stocks could face increased pressure once the 10-year rate rises above 5%.The yield has been climbing higher amid Trump's election, as uncertainty has grown over whether the Federal Reserve can cut rates amid the president-elect's policies. The 10-year rate is currently trading above 4.5%.

3 developments that could derail the stock market's post-Trump sugar high, BofA says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Spy mania in Russia has created an environment that's stifling innovation, sources told BI.</li><li>Arrests for treason in Russia have soared, human rights experts said.</li></ul>Ivan Pavlov, a Russian-born lawyer who now lives in Europe, was 51 was he was forced to leave his home country. After years of representing Russians who had been accused of treason, he was put on the nation's wanted list and labeled as a "foreign agent" in 2021 — a term that, in Russia, is equated with spy, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/12/01/russia-new-restrictions-foreign-agents">Human Rights Watch</a>.Eventually, he knew he had to flee, he told Business Insider in an interview."All my professional life was in Russia," he said. "My family was inside Russia and it was a huge [suffering]."The arrest of accused "spies" has risen dramatically since Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine, Pavlov and other human rights experts told BI.That could end up having a big knock-on effect on Russia's already-weakened economy. Possible impacts include decreased investment, decreased consumption, and slower growth as Russia shifts away from a capitalistic society, Richard Portes, an economist from the London Business School, says."You do have an inhibition on risk-taking, innovation," Portes told BI on the intensifying pursuit of foreign agents in Russia. "For those who remain, you're not going to get any dynamic economic activity. Aside from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-ukraine-war-worker-shortage-population-brain-drain-2024-8">brain drain</a>, aside from the drain of young people, you're not going to get any innovation. And I think that's the medium-term consequence of all this: disastrous."Sergei Guriev, another economist who was deemed a "foreign agent" by the Russian government, agrees the crackdown on perceived security threats could hurt the country economically.He used the example of Russia recently <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-arrests-3-hypersonic-missile-scientists-for-treason-2023-5">arresting some of its missile scientists</a>, which has made others in the scientific community fearful of publishing new research, he said."We can expect that it should impact economic growth," he added, though he noted the effect may not be immediately felt.Russia's economy is showing some signs that the kind of risk-taking associated with innovation and entrepreneurship is on the decline. Innovation in Russia has fallen behind the nation's level of development, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wipo.int/web-publications/global-innovation-index-2024/assets/67729/2000%20Global%20Innovation%20Index%202024_WEB2.pdf">2024 ranking</a> from the World Intellectual Property Organization. Patent filings fell 13% in Russia in 2022, while patent filings from foreign applicants dropped 30%, according to data from the <a target="_blank" href="https://rospatent.gov.ru/content/uploadfiles/otchet-2023.pdf">Russian Patent Office</a>.Russia minted just 240,458 new LLCs in 2022, about half of the number of new companies that registered in 2015, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/entrepreneurship">World Bank entrepreneurship</a> database.Private investment in Russia is also down. Private equity and venture capital-backed M&amp;A deals and funding rounds in Russia dropped around 39% from 2022 to 2023, with the nation seeing just <a target="_blank" href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/2-years-on-private-capital-flees-russia-builds-slowly-in-ukraine-80421379">$1.4 billion</a> of those types deals last year, according to S&amp;P Global data. Merger and acquisition deal value as a whole also dropped 71% to $6.41 billion, down from $22.48 billion the prior year.<a target="_blank" href="https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/132_28-08-2024.html">Corporate profits</a> in Russia also dropped around 6% in the first half of the year in 2024. Meanwhile, profits from Russia's professional, scientific, and technical activities dropped around 19% over the first half of this year compared to the same period a year ago, Rosstat data shows.These outcomes are partly influenced by a more restrictive environment in Russia, Portes said, in addition to some of Moscow's other challenges, like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">high inflation</a> and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">flight of some of its most educated</a> workers."The longer-term consequences, the medium-term consequences, are hollowing out [the economy]," he said. "It's very sad, but that's what it is."<h3 id="c673f304-1ae4-43f5-81a2-d4145eb78dc1">Moscow's spy mania</h3>The number of Russians being accused of treason has skyrocketed in recent years, Guriev says. He estimates that over 100 people each year are now being arrested for treason. That's likely because Russia's government is focused on creating an "atmosphere of fear," and "paralyzing resistance" amid the war in Ukraine, Pavlov said.Constant fear of persecution doesn't mix with a capitalistic society, Portes says."The thing about capitalism — capitalism has its defects for sure — but it works because it gives incentives to people to take risks," he said. "The circumstances of a country that's like what Russia is right now, the incentive to take risks, there is a strong disincentive".Other experts have noted that Russia looks to be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-ukraine-war-tech-reverse-industrialization-central-bank-finland-2023-3">drifting away</a> from a capitalist structure, particularly as it boosts public spending to fund its war efforts in Ukraine.Previously, Portes predicted that Russia was on its way to being reduced to a "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-ukraine-war-worker-shortage-population-brain-drain-2024-8">natural resource economy</a>." That could lead to a lower quality of life for Russians, he predicted, hitting the nation with sluggish economic growth and a decline in everything from education to medical care.Moscow's economy isn't necessarily at risk of collapse, thanks to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-inflation-worker-shortage-2024-2">hefty government spending on the war</a>, Portes says, though he still sees a dark economic future ahead of the nation."It's a disaster. We have plenty of examples in history where a war economy can keep on going, even though everything is crumbling around it. And I think that's what you have now," he added.

How national security panics in Russia could stifle innovation and hurt its economy

Mumbai: India is on track to becoming the <keyword id="20432305" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="third-largest-economy" source="keywords">third-largest economy</keyword> by 2030-31, driven by a projected annual growth rate of 6.7 per cent this fiscal, <keyword id="19990557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global">S&amp;P Global</keyword> said in a report on Thursday. The report also said that with 8.2 per cent growth rate in FY2024, continued reforms are crucial to improving business transactions and logistics, boosting <keyword id="20423043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-sector-investment" source="keywords">private sector investment</keyword>, and reducing reliance on public capital. It said equity markets are expected to stay dynamic and competitive due to strong growth prospects and better regulation, and foreign inflows into Indian government bonds have surged since the country joined major emerging market indexes, with further growth anticipated. To maximize trade benefits, India must develop infrastructure and geopolitical strategies, particularly regarding its extensive coastline, said the first edition of 'India Forward: Emerging Perspectives' report. Nearly 90 per cent of India's trade is seaborne, necessitating robust port infrastructure to manage increasing exports and bulk commodity imports, it added. Noting that India faces rising domestic energy demands and can look to sustainable technologies, including renewables and low-emission fuels, balancing energy security with its energy transition plans, the report stated that agriculture will rely on advanced technologies and new policies to improve infrastructure and productivity. The need is to address critical infrastructure issues such as irrigation, storage, and supply distribution to ensure food security and economic stability, it added. The <keyword id="23234467" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sp-global-india-research" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global India Research</keyword> Chapter's inaugural study was launched here on Thursday.

India on track to becoming third-largest economy by FY31: S&P Global report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia is breaking down institutions and "borrowing from the future," Konstantin Sonin says.</li><li>The economist notes Russia is taking measures to exert more control over its economy. </li></ul>Russia is dealing with an economic "time bomb," according to one top economist.Konstantin Sonin, a professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, said he foresaw a dark economic future ahead for Russia. That's because the war in Ukraine has put Moscow in a position where it needs to exert more control over the economy, leading it to break down key market institutions and "borrow" funds from the future, Sonin wrote in an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/russia-war-economy-short-term-strength-mortgaging-the-future-by-konstantin-sonin-2024-10">op-ed</a> for Project Syndicate on Friday.Sonin pointed to a handful of measures Russia has taken to prop up its economy, including implementing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-putin-export-curbs-uranium-nickel-titanium-commodities-sanctions-2024-9">export restrictions</a> on key commodities to counter Western sanctions. The change has prompted some companies to issue steep price hikes, Sonin said, and it's an example of market levers breaking down in the nation. Russia has also taken steps to block firms from leaving the country. Some companies, like Heineken, have been forced to sell their operations in Russia for as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/heineken-finally-cuts-ties-russia-18-months-after-ukraine-invasion-2023-8">little as one euro</a>.The Kremlin is also financing the war by "borrowing from the future," Sonin said, pointing to cuts to key public spending programs, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-defense-military-war-spending-drains-resources-other-sectors-2024-1">military spending soars</a>. The Kremlin is still planning to spend <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2024-06-27/crisis-affecting-russias-public-services-healthcare-education">more on national defense than healthcare or education</a> for the next two years, according to plans Russia's finance ministry published in 2023."Even more important, Putin's borrowing from the future takes the form of a gradual, yet pervasive dismantling of the market institutions that the Russian people paid such a high price to acquire during the reforms of the 1990s," Sonin wrote. "Investing massively in military production and simultaneously dismantling market institutions may strengthen Putin's hand in the short term, but it sets a time bomb under longer-term economic development."Still, Russia's economy isn't close to collapse, Sonin noted. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/RUS">Russia's GDP</a> is estimated to grow another 3.2% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, which experts have attributed to Moscow's hefty war spending.Yet, Sonin sees a challenging economic future."Whenever the Ukraine war ends and Russia returns to international trade (beyond raw materials), all the nationalizations of recent years will come back to haunt it. Putin's war not only imposes on today's Russians a worse life than they otherwise would have had. It also condemns future generations," he added.Other forecasters have also warned of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-ukraine-war-inflation-growth-worker-shortage-wages-2024-8">weak growth prospects</a> in Russia over the long run. While GDP continues to grow, longer-term indicators of economic health are in decline, with the nation suffering from a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-ukraine-war-worker-shortage-population-brain-drain-2024-8#:~:text=Russia's%20brain%20drain%20has%20become,by%20waning%20quality%20of%20life.">major worker shortage</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-ukraine-war-worker-shortage-population-brain-drain-2024-8#:~:text=Labor%20productivity%20in%20Russia%20also,from%20the%20Russian%20Patent%20Office.">labor productivity falling</a> more than 3% last year, according to CEIC data.

Russia is facing a 'time bomb' at the heart of its economy, economist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Good morning! I've been known to make a bet or two in my day, which is why I'm wondering the odds you could get betting you'd have <a target="_blank" href="https://l.businessinsider.com/a/click?_t=c8e10479a20f45bba5aad6c5f6fbb009&amp;_m=6772a277a53343d1b8950d06c580109a&amp;_e=wedM0vcz3WB83-iK-OBZJTkfVvTI1cenK4Yfx-kMvpCPL58ojVWleTggSDrDNbC6MwxTb_NHGcJCaEdKGa66gW11aCmDeW54RamXMfEYgz4pgzPyjX3VK-xGq6HLo8JeF7nM8tdyn4FxN4cSYiGkQCMUaavUX7kshB-sMPphr6HvBF2DREPVxJDafa_79wfvN6VKhdYiUJnVdmEB1IKEEQHCf7LUE-5DFaymAiX_zWS1zHCSdRISy3qfL_nHIW4-CUAZJD3W_erXuiGqEcOJW8bEkt13rwIOROZ83FVl34PHj0WL69EHdDhEEX9OL3Vy6IqBL4ivYkaI3KuRoSrpxi0zMck_wwGXx8Ho_Rfmm1rf418GJiy2K1HKfbnj7tnxp-0WREsGhcM8vuSM8AkynSKTd7PGptUxbU0h7GaVSX4UFH191h1CXQasaDZi8Noacuiq2XhMSo8AoOGkIL90nA%3D%3D">four kids with the same birthday</a>.In today's big story, the economy is heading in the right direction, <a target="_blank" href="https://l.businessinsider.com/a/click?_t=c8e10479a20f45bba5aad6c5f6fbb009&amp;_m=6772a277a53343d1b8950d06c580109a&amp;_e=wedM0vcz3WB83-iK-OBZJTkfVvTI1cenK4Yfx-kMvpDdvvp5_TVwJ0J3vTteS83eVIpt0v1xbwCXSl3sN3tMrAZNUiQLvyMxCikHtOcIkqz9gRKolFXi2bsoDVThPUIrOWqwQlUFqGLcwxdzRN_2B5DGEy_WN93l0PLSw0F0R9zBJvD9LdCrxQiH7sQuSGBDBKINpLHrgTK2gEILUNpPVD5NEwaEGzElv8IWb0jrebQml1SjspMQJLTm1W7SJh6SrDPQ6L9GBKv9M_B1rBQb8HXfX8JVYq55eoOPDlloYzylnHbrJSEwu91n6NFHmn1ckz6IliaXwWuaAfBpOOdNmfJykY0_BTBwTUUY2GzvVKJXyEGrOBrYEUojIiOdfRCS5J9xBXzYU5IxNKLSIWt9w_rkKbuS9LhLP8ouy-fyufQFjfX0Kj5GDB4zWIRZfbJn40Y6ru83RJ28WKZLMd9ojg%3D%3D">but consumers aren't buying it</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: What's good for economic growth <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-nightmare-scenario-is-no-landing-in-the-economy-2024-9">could eventually be bad for stocks</a>.</li><li>Tech: Check out the leaked MrBeast handbook <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-mrbeast-guide-reveals-youtube-secret-weapons-for-success-2024-9">revealing his "secret weapons" for success</a>.</li><li>Business: The DOJ just hit Visa with an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/visa-antitrust-monopoly-lawsuit-doj-debit-card-2024-9">antitrust lawsuit over its debit cards</a>.</li></ul>But first, the vibes are all off.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Lacking confidence</h2><div type="image" title="A job seeker looking at an Employment page in the newspaper, giving it a .5-star review out of 5" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113670882" hostid="261" sizebytes="97270"></div>The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the stock market reached all-time highs, and the risk of a recession is gone.Things seem to be going really well for the economy, right?Wrong.Consumers aren't feeling bullish about the economy these days. In fact, they're quite pessimistic. US consumer confidence suffered its biggest drop in three years this month, according to data from the Conference Board.We've been here before. For much of 2022 and 2023, Americans were in a "vibecession" where their perception of the economy was much worse than the data indicated. Last time around, pesky inflation was keeping things like groceries and housing costs high, even as the rest of the economy showed improvement.This time, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-hiring-less-economy-outlook-inflation-consumer-sentiment-2024-9">the labor market's the culprit</a>, writes Business Insider's Juliana Kaplan. But it's not mass layoffs most people are worried about. Having a job isn't the issue — the unemployment rate is just 4.2% — as much as finding the next gig.It's no wonder that consumers aged 35 to 54 suffered the biggest drop in confidence, according to the Conference Board. This group, which is in its prime earning years, is facing a job market that's keeping them stuck in place.<div type="image" title="Wall street broker pointing upwards in front of an upward stock arrow" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113670879" hostid="261" sizebytes="159792"></div>The labor market isn't a lost cause, though.The Fed has acknowledged its top priority is keeping an eye on job growth and unemployment.We'll get a sense of which direction things are headed on October 4 when we get September's payroll data.Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, Mike Wilson, recently outlined <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/best-case-scenario-for-stock-market-outlook-fourth-quarter-ms-2024-9">the best- and worst-case scenarios for the numbers</a> in regard to the stock market. If unemployment dips below 4.1% and non-farm payroll can surpass 150,000, consider it game on for a big fourth quarter for stocks.But if unemployment climbs to 4.3% and non-farm payroll drops below 100,000, buckle up for a bumpy ride.The stock market isn't representative of the entire economy, as we've already covered. But continued success there could give companies more confidence to start hiring again.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Caroline Ellison was sentenced to 2 years in prison for her role in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/caroline-ellison-sentencing-jail-time-ftx-2024-9">the FTX and Alameda Research fraud scheme</a>.</li><li>Brett Favre reveals he's been diagnosed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brett-favre-diagnosed-parkinsons-disease-hearing-2024-9">with Parkinson's disease</a>.</li><li>Hezbollah launched its deepest strike on Israel yet — <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-intercepts-hezbollah-missile-strike-tel-aviv-lebanon-2024-9">targeting Tel Aviv</a>.</li><li>Alice Walton, the world's richest woman, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/alice-walton-wealth-walmart-family-richest-woman-bettencourt-meyers-billionaires-2024-8">just joined the $100 billion club</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="A line of public servants walking toward an open door on a Social Security card" height="1000" width="2000" msid="113670886" hostid="261" sizebytes="316196"></div><ol><li>Retirement, so confusing. Social security curveballs are making retirement age a nightmare to wade through for workers who have had both private sector and government careers. The murky provisions have left some workers <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/social-security-benefits-loopholes-mean-teachers-police-get-less-retirement-2024-9">with a bitter $0 in benefits</a>.</li><li>One of the biggest risks to stocks could be the economy growing. Wait, what? Economist Steven Blitz outlined a scenario where the Fed keeps rates too low for too long, creating a red-hot economy. The end result could be <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-nightmare-scenario-is-no-landing-in-the-economy-2024-9">another bout of inflation</a> and the Fed raising rates again.</li><li>China's stimmy package is a win for emerging markets. China's stimulus plan to boost its ailing economy sent emerging markets indexes to their <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-stimulus-boosts-emerging-markets-stocks-2024-9">highest level since April 2022</a>. But some analysts aren't sold on China's strategy saving its economy in the long run.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Andy Jassy" height="900" width="1200" msid="113670885" hostid="261" sizebytes="240466"></div><ol><li>Amazon cut a popular remote-work benefit. Months before its strict RTO policy kicks in, the company has already scrapped the option to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rto-remote-work-benefit-ends-2024-9">work up to four weeks a year fully remote</a>. The benefit allowed people to stay close to family while working during the holidays.</li><li>MrBeast's "secret weapons" for workplace success. A leaked handbook reveals the YouTuber's sacred pillars for success and the expectations he set for employees. "We aren't stuck in any old ways of thinking and you can literally turn anything into content," <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-mrbeast-guide-reveals-youtube-secret-weapons-for-success-2024-9">he wrote in the document</a>. Former employees said his principles weren't always followed.</li><li>TikTok waves the white flag on music streaming. TikTok is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktok-abandoning-plan-to-challenge-spotify-apple-in-music-streaming-2024-9">abandoning its plan to beat</a> Spotify at its own game: It's shutting down the TikTok Music app in November. However, the video-sharing platform will still be a major player in music discovery.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="State of Texas with an Austin map inside along with an arrow going down with a house on it" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113670883" hostid="261" sizebytes="113256"></div><ol><li>A boom and bust your city should copy and paste. Austin, Texas, enjoyed a real-estate boom during the pandemic, but that high has since subsided. While that's created short-term pain for those who bought near the peak, the quick boom-bust cycle will be good for the city in the long term because of one key effect: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/austin-home-prices-falling-texas-mortgage-rates-housing-crisis-success-2024-9">It allowed developers to build, build, build</a>.</li><li>Visa just got hit with an antitrust lawsuit. The US Justice Department filed a lawsuit accusing the payment processing giant of engaging in anticompetitive behavior and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/visa-antitrust-monopoly-lawsuit-doj-debit-card-2024-9">imposing unfair costs on customers and merchants</a>. Prosecutors say the company's actions affect "the price of nearly everything."</li><li>Generation Never-Called-in-Sick. Ron Sherman had what he considered a typical baby-boomer attitude towards work: Be loyal to your employer, always give 100%, and never call out sick unless you really have to. But he lost 360 hours of unused sick leave after a brutal layoff. Now, at retirement's doorstep, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomers-gen-z-sick-days-time-off-work-regret-2024-9">he thinks Gen Z might have the right idea</a> after all.</li></ol><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>SEC chair testifies to Senate banking committee.</li><li>G20 foreign ministers meet.</li><li>Mark Zuckerberg addresses Meta Connect developer conference on AI and AR.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jack Sommers, deputy editor, in London. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

You Searched For "developing economies" and got 11 results

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How national security panics in Russia could stifle innovation and hurt its economy

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Russia is facing a 'time bomb' at the heart of its economy, economist says

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Things are looking up for the economy. So why are consumers still unhappy?

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