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Mumbai: The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword> in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword> is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts. Earlier this month, the government reconstituted the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel -- <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC). The reconstituted panel, with three newly appointed external members, will commence its maiden meeting on Monday. MPC Chairman RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will reveal the outcome of the three-day discussion on Wednesday (October 9). The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has kept the repo or short-term lending rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February 2023, and experts think some easing could only be possible in December. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. In the current context, experts feel that the RBI may not follow the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the benchmark rates by 50 basis points, and the central banks of some developed nations, which have reduced the interest rates. "We do not expect any change in the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> or stance by MPC. The reason is that inflation for September and October will be above 5 per cent, and the present low inflation is due to the base effect. Besides, core inflation is inching upwards," said Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda. Further, the recent Iran-Israel imbroglio can intensify, and there is uncertainty here, he said. "Hence, the status quo is the most likely option even for new members. Inflation forecast may be lowered by 10-20 bps and no change in GDP forecast likely," said Sabnavis. The central bank last hiked the repo rate to 6.5 per cent in February 2023 and since then, it has held the rate at the same level. Icra Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said that given the undershooting in the initial first quarter GDP growth relative to the MPC's forecast and the likely sizeable undershooting in the second quarter CPI inflation print as well, "we believe a stance change to neutral may be appropriate in the October 2024 policy review". This could be followed by a shallow rate-cutting cycle of 25 bps each in December 2024 and February 2025, she added. "The abundant monsoon offers some insurance for crop inflation. The impact of global political developments and geopolitical uncertainty on the growth inflation dynamics remains a risk," Nayar added. An HSBC report said three developments stand out -- softer growth numbers have trickled in recently, inflation has been falling, and the external environment has moved from rate hikes to cuts. "We believe the RBI doesn't gain from waiting any longer. We think it will change its stance from a hawkish 'withdrawal of accommodation' to 'neutral' in the upcoming 9 October policy meeting, followed by repo rate cuts of 25 bps each in the December and February meetings, taking the repo rate to 6 per cent," the report said. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its August bi-monthly review amid risks from higher food inflation. This was the ninth consecutive MPC meeting, which decided to maintain the status quo on the rate front. Pradeep Aggarwal, founder and chairman, Signature Global (India) Limited, said while the real estate industry, developer community, and homebuyers are hoping for an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy review, the RBI is likely to hold on to the interest rate cuts for the tenth consecutive time. "The apex bank still seems uncomfortable with the overall retail inflation scenario, particularly food inflation. As such, it is expected to maintain the status quo. The recent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has ignited similar hopes even in India, but the domestic scenario is very different," he added. SBM Bank India Head Treasury Mandar Pitale believed that the MPC has persistently advocated a restrictive policy until inflation aligns durably towards the 4 per cent target. "With the unfavourable base effect taking the next couple of CPI prints near 5 per cent plus or minus, it will pose a major challenge for MPC to start easing from the October meeting," Pitale said, adding that the MPC is also expected to deliberate upon the global factors like growth-inflation behaviour in developed economies. The government has appointed Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Nagesh Kumar as external members of the MPC. They have replaced Ashima Goyal, Shashanka Bhide, and Jayanth R Varma. Apart from the Governor, the other internal members are the RBI Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Debabrata Patra and the Executive Director monetary policy department of RBI Rajiv Ranjan. In an off-cycle meeting in May 2022, the MPC raised the policy rate by 40 basis points and it was followed by rate hikes of varying sizes, in the subsequent meetings till February 2023. The repo rate was raised by 250 basis points cumulatively between May 2022 and February 2023.

Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Happy Friday! Elections can be stressful, so take some tips from new research on how to lower your blood pressure. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lower-your-blood-pressure-5-minutes-exercise-a-day-study-2024-11">Daily short, intense workouts</a> can be your best bet to fight disease and improve longevity.In today's big story, the Fed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cutting interest rates yesterday was never really in doubt</a>. What comes next isn't as clear.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Goldman Sachs announced <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partners-revealed-see-full-list-names-diversity-women-2024-11">its newest class of partners</a>.</li><li>Tech: The stock market is already indicating <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-winners-losers-trump-election-win-according-to-market-2024-11">winners and losers among Big Tech</a>.</li><li>Business: Hiring experts are predicting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-affect-job-hiring-trends-and-employer-confidence-2024-11">a "Trump bump" for the jobs market</a>.</li></ul>But first, more relief … for now.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">The Fed's new conundrum</h2><div type="image" title="Jerome Powell on top of stock market chart going down." height="900" width="1800" msid="115090330" hostid="261" sizebytes="70080"></div>Americans got a bit more relief from the Fed, but questions are swirling about what the president-elect means for future plans.The Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cut interest rates by 25 basis points Thursday</a>, its second-straight reduction since September in a move that was largely expected. Additional rate cuts aren't as clear, though, as Donald Trump's proposed widespread tariffs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-inflation-interest-rates-fed-rate-cuts-fomc-meeting-outlook-2024-11">could slow down the Fed's plans</a>.Economists have said Trump's 10-20% blanket tariff on most imported goods will cause inflation to flare up as producers and importers pass the cost of the tax onto consumers. Prior to the election, Nobel economist Paul Krugman said Trump's tariff plans would result in an "inflationary shock that is bigger than almost anything else you could do through federal policy."It's not just speculation from economists. The market is indicating inflation could lead the Fed to keep borrowing rates high. Treasury yields soared the day after the election, a sign Wall Street sees interest rates staying elevated.Interest-rate traders have also recalibrated their expectations. The chances of a 25-point December rate cut went from 83% at the start of the month down to as much as 63% yesterday following the Fed's announcement, according to the CME FedWatch tool. (It currently stands around 75%.)<div type="image" title="Photo of Donald Trump" height="1279" width="1920" msid="115090327" hostid="261" sizebytes="95086"></div>Still, speculating on what could come from a president-elect is a tricky game.Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at <a target="_blank" href="http://Bankrate.com">Bankrate.com</a>, told Insider Today that Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't indicate a pause in cuts was coming in December during Thursday's press conference. Powell also emphasized the election won't impact the central bank's near-term actions, McBride added."Until there are policy specifics being passed into law, there is nothing for the Fed to put in their economic models and they won't speculate or assume anything in the interim," McBride wrote via email.There's also the question of whether Trump's tariff would be as inflationary as some fear. During his first term, the former president issued tariffs against China that didn't cause prices to spike.Trump's proposals this time around are much more aggressive, but it's not clear what will actually be put in place."Nobody knows what will be implemented and what is just posturing for negotiation," McBride added.Dominique Lapointe, director of macro strategy for Manulife Investment Management, told Insider Today via email the firm's base case is still a 25-point cut in December. The Fed would change course in reaction to tariffs only if they are official and making an impact, meaning the central bank's policy likely wouldn't change until mid-2025, Lapointe added.One thing that is clear: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/powell-wont-resign-federal-reserve-step-down-trump-election-2024-11">Powell's not leaving</a>.When a reporter asked the Fed leader if he would resign if Trump, who has been critical of him, asked him to step down, his response was simple: "No."<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Democrats wished the election was about jobs. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-won-election-high-prices-cost-of-living-unemployment-2024-11">Trump's win showed it was about prices</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-local-government-debt-rescue-trump-us-presidential-election-2024-11">China announced a $1.4 trillion stimulus package</a> to boost its economy on the heels of Trump's election.</li><li>Airbnb reported its earnings. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airbnb-earnings-shares-most-interesting-things-cohost-2024-11">Here are four highlights</a>.</li><li>Trump said he will divide Russia from China. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-plan-divide-china-russia-axis-is-likely-fail-2024-11">It's a tough bromance to break</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-prediction-correct-election-trump-harris-2024-11">Peter Thiel's 'contrarian'</a> election prediction came true.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of MAGA hat on exchange desk" height="655" width="1000" msid="115090331" hostid="261" sizebytes="44410"></div><ol><li>Morningstar thinks you should stay the course with your investment plan. Trump's win sent the stock market surging, but that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-election-investing-stock-market-strategy-sp500-valuations-morningstar-2024-11">doesn't mean you should rethink your investing strategy</a>, Morningstar Senior US Market Strategist Dave Sekera said. His call for restraint is partly due to how high stock valuations currently are, although he does see opportunity among small-caps.</li><li>The new Goldman execs who just got the call of a lifetime. Goldman Sachs tapped<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partners-revealed-see-full-list-names-diversity-women-2024-11"> 95 people to join its exclusive partnership</a> on Thursday, a record high under CEO David Solomon. Twenty-six of the new partners are women, a group closely watched after a series of high-profile female partner exits.</li><li>Trump's election might be Citi's saving grace. The bank has spent more than $7.4 billion addressing regulators' concerns, specifically about its data and risk problems. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-election-citi-jane-fraser-regulators-frc-occ-2024-11">Donald Trump could ease that pain</a>. The president-elect has signaled he'd cut down on Wall Street oversight, previously pledging he'd eliminate 10 rules for each new one.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Musk and Trump." height="2499" width="3329" msid="115090332" hostid="261" sizebytes="268836"></div><ol><li>How Elon Musk swung Pennsylvania for Trump. The tech tycoon <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-pennsylvania-america-pac-donald-trump-harris-2024-11">spent millions on the Keystone State</a> to deliver it to Trump, launching a last-minute canvassing effort and untested ground-game techniques. Musk's strategy could usher in a "new era" in campaign spending, one political scientist told BI.</li><li>Big Tech's biggest winners and losers after Trump's victory. Which companies stand to gain the most under a new Trump presidency? BI looked at the two-day stock performance of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-winners-losers-trump-election-win-according-to-market-2024-11">many of the largest tech companies to find out</a>.</li><li>Trump's plan to "never ban" TikTok will be tough to fulfill, legal experts say. The former president campaigned on the promise that TikTok would be here to stay. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-block-tiktok-ban-legal-experts-2024-11">But legal experts told BI he's only got two options to try and save it</a> — and neither of them are straightforward.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Image of Walmart sign outside store" height="1280" width="1920" msid="115090336" hostid="261" sizebytes="228442"></div><ol><li>Retail giants prepare for Trump 2.0. Tariffs are the biggest concern for superstores like Walmart, Target, and Costco. If the president-elect follows through on his campaign promises, consumers could foot the bill of high tariffs through higher prices. On the other hand, tax cuts could spur spending — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-retail-impact-walmart-costco-target-tariffs-tax-cuts-2024-11">but they'd take many months to see results</a>.</li><li>The job market under Trump. Hiring experts expect a "Trump bump" as employers get comfortable posting openings now that the election's outcome is clear. They forecast a postelection hiring rush and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-affect-job-hiring-trends-and-employer-confidence-2024-11">increased demand in some sectors</a>, particularly tech.</li><li>David Zaslav is optimistic about Trump's effect on Big Media. The Warner Bros. Discovery CEO wanted a president who was more open to M&amp;A, since his company has been eyeing consolidation for a while. A second <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wbd-trump-zaslav-consolidation-earnings-2024-11">Trump administration might provide that opportunity</a>, Zaslav said on WBD's earnings call, but it's too early to be certain.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>The Polymarket 'whale' actually made $85 million, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">far more than originally thought</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-lost-biden-unpopularity-trump-election-2024-11">Harris couldn't escape</a> Biden's unpopularity.</li><li>Investors accuse the ex-CEO of the company that helped take Trump Media public of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-ceo-patrick-orlando-lawsuit-trump-media-investors-shares-2024-11">stiffing them out of millions of shares</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Paramount, Sony, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>Grammy Award nominations are announced.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

Fed cuts rates again, but Trump's tariff plan sparks inflation fears and market uncertainty

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stock futures broadly rose on Friday as declining retail sales offset inflation fears.</li><li>S&amp;P and Nasdaq futures climbed, while the 10-year Treasury yield and dollar were almost flat.</li></ul>US stocks were primed to open higher on Friday as signs of softening consumer demand tempered concerns of stubborn inflation.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/s&amp;p-500-futures">S&amp;P 500 futures</a> were up 0.2% shortly after 5 a.m. ET, building on the benchmark stock index's 0.6% gain on Thursday that saw it <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-dow-retail-sales-investors-economy-finance-2024-2">close at a record</a> 5,030 points. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/nasdaq-100-futures">Nasdaq 100 futures</a> climbed 0.6%, while <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/dow-futures">Dow Jones Industrial Average futures</a> slid by 0.1%.Meanwhile, the key <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years?miRedirects=1">10-year Treasury yield</a> inched up to 4.264%, close to a two-month high. The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">US Dollar Index</a> was almost flat at around 104, well above its December low of under 101.Wall Street was rattled this week after headline inflation in January <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-consumer-price-index-january-housing-food-energy-prices-2024-2#:~:text=Inflation%20comes%20in%20hotter%20than%20expected&amp;text=The%20consumer%20price%20index%20rose,month%20over%20month%20in%20January.">didn't drop below 3%</a> as widely predicted. But retail sales slid by a larger-than-expected 0.8% last month, government data revealed on Thursday, helping to allay fears of an overheated economy and persistently high interest rates.Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, suggested in a morning note that investors would have celebrated strong retail sales too, as they'd view it as fresh evidence that a recession has been avoided."We are coming to a point where the economic data becomes meaningless," she said. "Whatever the data prints, the US stock market finds a positive narrative to keep the rally going. It's, of course, blind optimism; investors are blinded by the brilliance of the rate cuts at the tunnel's end.""Today, the US will reveal the latest producer price update," she continued. "The producer price inflation is expected to have slowed in January. And if it didn't, it doesn't matter."Companies slated to report <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar">earnings</a> later include TC Energy, Vulcan Materials, and Cinemark.On the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar">economic front</a>, Wall Street will be looking out for not just producer price data, but figures for housing starts in January, and scheduled comments from two Federal Reserve officials, Michael Barr and Mary Daly.

Stock market today: S&P and Nasdaq futures rise as retail sales dip calms inflation fears

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Kamala Harris unveiled plans for the first-ever federal ban on price gouging.</li><li>Some experts question whether price gouging has been a central factor in inflation's rise.</li></ul>Vice President Kamala Harris' proposal to combat grocery inflation hasn't elicited a range of opinions from economists, and many have turned to history to dispute her idea.Last week, the Democratic presidential nominee unveiled early details of her economic platform, which included a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/grocery-costs-inflation-kamala-harris-ban-price-gouging-election-trump-2024-8">pledge to ban grocery price gouging</a>. Price gouging skepticismThe plan has elicited a range of responses from experts and economists, with some deriding it as an unnecessary overstep by the government to address a problem that is not at the heart of the inflation dilemma. "I hope she walks this one back. She had some good ideas, some mixed ideas," Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/17/politics/video/harris-economic-vision-professor-rogoff-digvid">CNN</a>. "This was a horrible idea."Rogoff's position was based on doubts about whether retailers were to blame for the wave of inflation that has weighed on Americans' spending power in the last two years. Harris called for a first-ever federal ban on the basis that firms have notched record profits at a time when many households have struggled to adjust to runaway costs. Since January 2020, grocery prices have jumped 25%.But according to market veteran Ed Yardeni, data doesn't suggest gouging is the problem.He wrote this week that the ratio between the consumer price index and supermarket producer price index has been dropping since 2000, suggesting that profit margins in the industry have been trending down, not up. CPI tracks prices paid by consumers, while PPI measures the prices paid by wholesalers.And yet, consumers feel strongly that corporate greed is a central factor for why prices have risen abruptly. In a <a target="_blank" href="https://socialeconomicslab.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Why_dislike_inflation.pdf">study</a> from May, price gouging was the second leading perceived cause of inflation among surveyed consumers.Real-world examples do exist. Cal-Maine, the largest egg producer in the US, saw its profits rocket <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/29/business/egg-profits-cal-maine/index.html">718% in the first quarter of 2023</a>. By December, the distributor was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/us-jury-awards-177-mln-kraft-other-producers-egg-price-fixing-case-2023-12-01/">found liable</a> for artificially inflating prices.'Price controls' a partisan label?Whether gouging deserves the blame for inflation, some have also criticized Harris' plan as an ineffective government overreach.Pundits have alluded to the price controls under President Richard Nixon. The Republican executive froze prices and wages over fifty years ago to clamp down on inflation, but it eventually jumped much higher, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cato.org/blog/unhappy-40th-anniversary-nixons-wage-price-controls">Cato Institute</a>, a libertarian think tank. "I think all of us would agree that price controls have never worked," Stephen Moore, visiting senior fellow at the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/08/19/harris-price-gouging-proposal-is-a-common-sense-set-of-policies-groundworkas-lindsay-owens.html">CNBC</a>. "They certainly were a complete failure in the 1970s when we had major inflation that hit 11%-12% and the government couldn't get rid of it."Broader <a target="_blank" href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/2022/mar/why-price-controls-should-stay-history-books">examples through history</a> show that price ceilings can distort the allocation of goods and supply, as prices no longer serve to signal a surplus or scarcity. This can eventually lead to shortages and higher pricing.However, supporters of the plan argue that such comparisons are an overreaction to Harris's proposal, as the details thus far say nothing about fixing costs."This is not 'price controls.' 40 states have price gouging laws on the books. These are red states. These are blue states," Groundwork Collaborative executive director Lindsay Owens said, noting that Donald Trump also cracked down medical supply price gouging during the pandemic. "This is a common-sense set of policies."The federal ban would help patch up legal inconsistencies between each state's approach, experts <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-lower-grocery-prices-inflation-harris-price-gouging-proposal-2024-8?as">told Business Insider</a>. Harris would likely find success by empowering the Federal Trade Commission to pursue bad actors, though the challenge would lie in carefully defining price gouging.While the plan's advocates have cheered this on, anonymous campaign sources that spoke with The New York Times noted that even <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/business/economy/harris-price-gouging-ban-groceries.html">allies may have the wrong idea about what it can do</a>.Given that it would be modeled on state laws, the ban would really only come into effect in emergencies, officials said, stating that just as price-control critiques are misguided, so are expectations that the ban will immediately cut down on grocery costs.For that to happen, a campaign official cited Harris' other policy ideas, such as efforts to spur competition and support small businesses in the food sector.While economists are divided, voters seem supportive of the proposal. Summer polling from the Democratic firm Blueprint found that four out of five voters are in favor of price-gouging prosecution, as well as price fixing.

A necessary step or government overreach? Economists are divided over Kamala Harris' plan to clamp down on food inflation

<keyword id="513422" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="Orion">Retail inflation</keyword> fell to an 18-month low of 4.7 per cent in April mainly due to cooling food prices, government data showed on Friday. It was for the second month in a row that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation remained within the RBI's comfort zone of below 6 per cent. The retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 5.66 per cent in March 2023 and 7.79 per cent in the year-ago period. Retail inflation in April is the lowest since October 2021 when it was at 4.48 per cent. According to the National Statistical Office, the inflation in the food basket was 3.84 per cent in April, as against 4.79 per cent in March and 8.31 per cent in the year-ago period. Retail inflation rose from 5.7 per cent in December 2022 to 6.4 per cent in February 2023 on the back of higher prices of cereals, milk and fruits and slower deflation in vegetable prices. Reserve Bank of India has projected the CPI inflation at 5.2 per cent for FY2023-24, with 5.1 per cent in Q1, 5.4 per cent in Q2, 5.4 per cent in Q3, and 5.2 per cent in Q4, and risks evenly balanced. <keyword id="35052" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="industrial-production" source="Orion">Industrial production</keyword> rises 1.1 pc in March, 5.1 pc in 2022-23 fiscal India's industrial production rose 1.1 per cent in March, according to official data released on Friday. Factory output measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 2.2 per cent in March 2022. The data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed that the manufacturing sector's output increased 0.5 per cent in March 2023. Mining output rose 6.8 per cent during the month under review. Power output declined by 1.6 in March. The IIP grew 5.1 per cent in 2022-23 as against a growth of 11.4 per cent in 2021-22.

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Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

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Fed cuts rates again, but Trump's tariff plan sparks inflation fears and market uncertainty

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Stock market today: S&P and Nasdaq futures rise as retail sales dip calms inflation fears

Theron Mohamed

A necessary step or government overreach? Economists are divided over Kamala Harris' plan to clamp down on food inflation

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Retail inflation declines to 18-month low of 4.7% in March; Industrial production rises 1.1%

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