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<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11675494" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="david-tice">David Tice</keyword> is bearish on "big tech" <keyword id="6354298" type="DEFINITION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Stocks">stocks</keyword> and <keyword id="6354947" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="bitcoin">bitcoin</keyword> as they look expensive to him.</li><li>The veteran fund manager advised investors to exercise caution in a high-risk market.</li><li>Tice is bullish on <keyword id="18712" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="60" keywordseo="Gold">gold</keyword> and silver miners due to <keyword id="22195" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Inflation">inflation</keyword> and currency-depreciation fears.</li></ul>"Big tech" stocks and bitcoin are too expensive, while gold and silver are cheap and effective hedges against inflation and a weaker dollar, veteran investor David Tice said in a recent <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/07/16/david-tice-warns-its-very-dangerous-to-invest-in-stocks-and-bitcoin.html?&amp;qsearchterm=david%20ticetice">CNBC interview</a>."We have come back a long way from the April lows of 2020 after the COVID-19 scare," the cofounder of Moran Tice Capital Management said. "However, we're not out of the woods yet and this is a dangerous market."Tice's concerns include the stock market appearing overpriced relative to projected corporate earnings, the US government racking up record amounts of debt, Treasury yields slumping in recent weeks, and accelerating inflation - even if it proves to be temporary.The fund manager warned investors that have piled into Alphabet, Microsoft, and other technology companies that those aren't "one-trick ponies" that guarantee handsome returns, and betting on them remains risky. Indeed, he predicted in another <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/24/stocks-will-fall-at-least-30percent-in-a-drawn-out-bear-market-david-tice.html">CNBC interview</a> in January that stocks would plunge at least 30% during a two-year downturn.Tice also underscored the appeal of gold and silver when global governments have been plowing trillions of dollars of stimulus into their economies."You look at this lack of discipline in monetary and fiscal <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword>, gold is truly the place to be," he said. "I would be owning gold, especially gold and silver mining companies," he continued, adding that some of those miners are trading cheaply, growing quickly, and will profit if gold prices rise.Tice rang the alarm on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as well.The investor owned bitcoin when it was trading around $10,000, deeming it useful protection against depreciating fiat currencies. However, he balked when it surged to $60,000 earlier this year."We felt like that was long in the tooth," Tice said. "It had gone up too far, too fast," he continued, adding that central bankers in several countries have criticized bitcoin in recent weeks, paving the way for stricter regulations."It's very dangerous to hold today," Tice added.Tice's warnings echo those of "The Big Short" investor Michael Burry and billionaire investors such as Jeremy Grantham, Leon Cooperman, and Stanley Druckenmiller, who have all <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/michael-burry-jeremy-grantham-predict-epic-stock-market-crash-warnings-2021-7">expressed concerns</a> about current market valuations and predicted painful downturns.

Veteran investor David Tice sounds the alarm on 'big tech' stocks and bitcoin - and touts gold and silver miners as better bets

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div>Permabear <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/s?q=david+tice">David Tice</a> is out with his latest market call: a 30%-60% decline for stocks.
In an <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/101950613">interview with CNBC on Wednesday</a>, Tice said the current market reminds him of 1999 and 2006-07, periods just before sharp market sell-offs when he says, "the VIX was very low and complacency was high."
"The Fed has been able to engineer a nice recovery in asset prices from '09 to '14," Tice said, "but trees don't grow to the sky." 
The drop in stocks, Tice said, will create a period of extreme turmoil, with gold being a major beneficiary.
Tice thinks gold prices will go "far above" $3,000 an ounce in the "not too distant future," and Tice said of this call: "I've never been more confident of anything in my life."
Tice is the <a href="http://www.tice.com/">founder of the </a><a href="http://www.tice.com/">Prudent Bear Fund</a>, a mutual fund that, <a href="http://www.federatedinvestors.com/FII/mutualfunds/details/overview.do?basketid=19144">according to Federated Investors</a>, "Seeks to help investors benefit from a declining U.S. stock market through the convenience of an actively managed bear fund."
Being extremely bearish on stocks is not a new position for Tice, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/david-tice-says-sp-going-to-400-video-2009-5">who said in 2009</a> that the S&amp;P 500 would go to 400, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/david-tice-bearish-2012-10">and in October 2012</a> said the market, "really seems like it seemed in early '08."
This chart from Morningstar shows the performance of the fund over the last ten years, with $10,000 invested in the fund worth $5,340 today. In contrast, $10,000 invested in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period would be worth $22,244 today. 
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DAVID TICE: Stocks Will Fall 30%-60%

David Tice has been one of the most consistently bearish stock market pundits throughout the bull market.
"I tend to be very very early on these things," Tice told CNBC's Kelly Evans on Wednesday. "It's hard to say when, but this is gonna end badly."
Tice <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/david-tice-sees-30-60-fall-for-stocks-2014-8">reiterated his August call</a> that we should expect the stock market to fall by 30% to 60%.
"I have the same kind of feel in '98 and '99; also '05 and '06," he said. "This is going to end badly. I have every confidence in the world."
Tice continues to be concerned that velocity will pick up in the massive money supply, stoking inflation and forcing rates to go higher.
"0% interest rates are not going to be here forever," he said. "When interest rates go up, there's going to be problems. And rates are going to go up at some point."
<h3>Rebuttal</h3>
Stifel Nicolaus' Kevin Caron was on to rebut Tice. He agreed that stocks are probably due for some pullback, but he didn't see any signs of an imminent crash.
Caron also took issue with Tice's comparison of today to the dotcom bubble and the housing bubble. He noted that stock market valuations are nowhere near their highs of the dotcom bubble and home prices and credit levels are nowhere near their highs of the more recent housing/credit bubble.
Caron further welcomed the idea of higher rates because it would likely accompany high real GDP growth.
<h3>Tice Isn't Betting On It</h3>
Despite his bearishness, Tice is not actually betting on a near-term sell-off.
"I've not been short stocks," Tice said after being asked by Evans how to play this market. "I've played VIX call options a couple of times. I've lost money some times; I've made a little bit of money some times."
<h3>But He Recommends Gold</h3>
"I'm still a big believer in gold," Tice said. "And that certainly hasn't treated me well."
Indeed, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/gold-on-the-verge-of-falling-below-1200-2014-10">gold has been getting punished in recent years</a> falling 28 % in 2013 and sliding another 2% this year.
Tice thinks gold is a good bet if inflation picks up. "Bullion I feel is the buy of a lifetime," he said.
For someone who spends his time being so negative all the time, Tice actually has a very glass-half-full way of thinking about plunging gold prices.
"Looking at oil prices falling as they have, gold has actually held in pretty well given how low oil has gone," he said.

DAVID TICE: I'm Not Shorting Stocks, But I'm Pretty Sure Stocks Will Fall 30%-60%

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="12241513" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="nigel-farage" source="Orion">Nigel Farage</keyword>, leader of Reform UK until March 2021, wasn't at its conference in Manchester.</li><li>Farage is the party president and by far its best-known figure.</li><li>The group, formerly the Brexit Party, rebranded after the UK left the European Union.</li></ul>Nigel Farage, the president of Reform UK and former leader of the party he helped establish, did not appear at the party's first conference since the 2019 general election.Reform UK held a one-day conference in Manchester alongside the opening of the Conservative Party Conference on Sunday.Reform UK is the successor to the Brexit Party, which Farage led to victory in the May 2019 European elections, and then to defeat in the Parliamentary general election in December 2019.Farage stepped down as party leader in March 2021 to focus on his media career, and has recently taken a significant role at GB News, the right-leaning broadcaster that has suffered from a rocky launch.He wasn't listed on the program for the conference, and was broadcasting for GB News from London on Sunday morning.In an interview with Insider, the party's deputy leader, Dr. David Bull, suggested it was possible Farage might make an appearance. "Nigel is still around, very much so. He did his bit," he said, "Without telling you too much, he's around."Asked if that might translate into an appearance on Sunday, Bull said: "It might do."But the party's leader, Richard Tice, who inherited the leadership from Farage, was clearer: "Nigel is focusing on his media career. In a sense, of course, he'd love to be here."But equally it's important to try and keep that sort of sense of balance and so he doesn't want it to be seen as a distraction on how he's trying to shape and influence through the media."Asked if Tice had asked Farage to come to the conference, he said: "Of course he's very welcome to come. But ultimately, he's a busy guy. He's doing media five days a week. It's not easy."Farage did not appear at the conference, a party spokesman confirmed. Farage sent a tweet in support of the conference.

Nigel Farage didn't show up to his own party's conference

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Reuters</div></div></div>The CEO of a property investment firm Quidnet Capital Partners says Britain should leave the European Union because the 28-nation bloc is barely growing and is failing to "help its citizens."Richard Tice told Bloomberg that while <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/merrill-lynch-brexit-bad-no-one-else-would-leave">investment banks and some bosses at Britain's biggest companies believe that a Brexit would be catastrophic for the island</a>, it would be better for the <keyword id="6354868" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="UK">UK</keyword> to determine its own fate by voting "out" of the EU."The biggest risk is staying in something that, frankly, is flatlining and not helping its citizens," Tice told Bloomberg.Tice, whose company manages £500 million ($756 million) worth of real estate, added that leaving would be a "very simple process" and that "I don't think there'd be any disruption at all. This is not cataclysmic."Last week, a team of Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst led by Robert Wood, warned that if Britons voted to leave the EU in the referendum scheduled for 2017, <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/merrill-lynch-brexit-bad-no-one-else-would-leave">the UK would experience so much economic pain</a> that it would make the EU stronger, because no other country would ever want to leave."In our view there would be serious economic fall-out for the UK in the short- and long-term if voters choose to leave the EU," said BAML analysts in the report.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Thomson ReutersBritain's Prime Minister David Cameron.</div></div></div>Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne don't want to leave the EU and have promised Britons that the government will renegotiate a "better deal" with Brussels.Cameron this week outlined exactly <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/david-camerons-mission-impossible-europe-speech-2015-11">what he is asking for and what he hopes to achieve</a> in renegotiating some of the terms of Britain's EU membership.Influential business group the Institute of Directors <a href="http://www.iod.com/influencing/press-office/press-releases/business-leaders-back-osbornes-eu-reform-agenda">said last week that business leaders are backing the push for renegotiation but not an exit</a>."Our members value access to the single market, and want to see it completed to create a true level playing field for their services, but businesses do not want the UK to take part in further political integration," said Simon Walker, Director General of the IoD. "As the Eurozone takes the steps it needs to build a stronger currency union, the Chancellor is right to insist on protections for the UK and other EU members who are not part of the single currency," "This is an important part of the Government's negotiations, but it is not the only part. The overriding aim must be to secure reforms which make the whole of the EU more competitive, benefiting companies of all sizes, even those which don't export."A poll of 1,259 IoD members during April to May also showed that two thirds of respondents believe that the benefits of staying within the EU outweighed the potential negatives. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-herjavec-american-dream-shark-tank-small-business-2015-10">'Shark Tank' star Robert Herjavec says only Americans think there are no opportunities in America </a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="gwbTkzeDpwglUYEFdCPlUIg1JNcvtfkf" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

Britain should leave the EU because it's flatlining and not helping its citizens

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right click-to-enlarge"><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="Elise Amendola/AP" title_caption="Bill Belichick would never call this Surface tablet an iPad." class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5432a4576bb3f7ce4cd2a56a-960/bill-belichick-18.jpg"></a>Elise Amendola/APBill Belichick would never call this Surface tablet an iPad.</div></div>After the NFL and Microsoft struck a 5-year, $400 million to make the Surface Pro 3 the official tablet of the NFL, the league ran into a bit of a problem when a few <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-nfl-surface-ipads-2014-9">network announcers couldn't correctly identify the technology and called them iPads or "iPad-like tools."</a>
Since then, Microsoft has "coached" some announcers on being better able to identify the devices.
"It's true, we have coached up a select few," a Microsoft spokesperson told Business Insider. "That coaching will continue to ensure our partners are well equipped to discuss Surface when the camera pans to players using the device during games."
The coaching appears to be working as there have not been any further reports of the blue tablets being mistaken for iPads. The coaching may have even worked a little too well in at least one incident.
During Fox's coverage of the Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants, cameras zoomed in on Falcons offensive line coach Mike Tice who was reviewing photos of the game using a standard 3-ring binder. The announcers were quick to point out that Tice was going "old school" and didn't need a Surface tablet.
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Reviewing photos on the sidelines has become the main use of the Surface tablets.
<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="David Richard/AP" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5432a3ec69bedd5716d2a561-960/nfl-coach-uses-microsoft-surface-pro-3-tablet.jpg"></a>David Richard/AP</div></div></div>
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According to the spokesperson, Microsoft is encouraging teams to use the Surface tablets is working directly with teams "to make sure all players and coaches are comfortable using the device." The key selling point is time, as the tablets can have the photos in the hands of players and coaches 30-40 seconds fast than the old school method.
Converting an old schooler like Tice might prove to be a bigger challenge than coaching the announcers.
The occasional glitch aside, the partnership appears to finally be working and the message is getting out.

After Coaching From Microsoft, NFL Announcers Have Gotten Very Good At Identifying Surface Tablets

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>At 2,000, the S&amp;P 500 is <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/closing-bell-september-3-2014-2014-9">right near its all-time high</a>. It's up an earpopping 200% from its March 2009 low.
Some Wall Street <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-sp-500-3000-2014-9">strategists believe</a> this bull market could <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/dow-jones-industrial-average-super-cycles-2014-9">go for years longer</a>.
But some measures of sentiment suggest investors should be more cautious.
"Sentiment has reached an extreme as Bears according to Investors Intelligence fell to the lowest level since 1987," said FBN Securities' J.C. O'Hara. "The markets persistent grind higher is a constant pain for any bear. The few that remain are the classic perma-bears and adjusting for them we are near rock bottom for bears."
Indeed, the unusually limited number of corrections and pullbacks has got everyone taking jabs at perma-bears like Albert Edwards, David Tice, and Marc Faber.
"% Bears down to 13.3%, lowest since Feb 1987," <a href="https://twitter.com/MktOutperform/status/507263276192116737/photo/1">tweeted Pension Partners' Charlie Bilello</a>. "Surprised it's even that high, are they counting Faber twice?"
The trouble with the lack of bearishness is that there isn't much keeping the bulls in check.
"The history of Sentiment reminds us that it's more dangerous to have an evaporation of bears compared to a plethora of bulls," said O'Hara.
Bilello tweeted <a href="https://twitter.com/MktOutperform/status/507263276192116737/photo/1">the chart</a>.
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We're Witnessing A Dangerous 'Evaporation Of Bears' In The Stock Market

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:480px"><div class="image"><a href="http://www.dvidshub.net/image/136888/foreign-language-training#.UELMI9CXR_4">Gary Nichols via U.S. Military</a></div></div>Ever since <keyword id="1702690" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Edward-Snowden">Edward Snowden</keyword> blew the whistle on the National Security Agency's massive domestic <keyword id="6392096" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Spying">spying</keyword> apparatus, Americans have been told that the government <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/infographic-how-the-nsa-intercepts-the-electronic-communications-of-americans-2012-5">collects virtually all</a> U.S. electronic communications <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/19/us/politics/nsa-chief-says-surveillance-has-stopped-dozens-of-plots.html?pagewanted=all">for our own safety</a>.
That assertion — which has since been <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-must-sacrifice-privacy-for-security-2013-7">disputed by security experts</a> and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/wyden-and-udall-dont-believe-intelligence-officials-2013-7">two senators on the intelligence committee</a> — also implies that we should totally trust the government, its employees, and <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jun/24/surveillance-us-national-security#">its contractors</a> having access to reams of private information about their fellow Americans.
(<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2013/jun/20/exhibit-a-procedures-nsa-document">One of Snowden's leaks</a> revealed that <keyword id="38879" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="NSA">NSA</keyword> analysts are <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/fbi-director-may-have-wrong-about-spying-2013-6#ixzz2YZBFBbL9">permitted to look at the content</a> of messages, or listen to phone calls, based on loose rules and their own discretion.)
"The real problem comes with trust," <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nsa-whistleblower-william-binney-was-right-2013-6">NSA Whistleblower</a> William Binney <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/06/16/snowden-whistleblower-nsa-officials-roundtable/2428809/">told USA Today</a>. "It's not just the trust that you have to have in the government. It's the trust you have to have in the government employees, [that] they won't go in the database — they can see if their wife is cheating with the neighbor or something like that."
Here are few examples of what can happen when humans have access to massive databases of electronic data:
• In 2008 two former NSA analysts who worked at the NSA center in Fort Gordon, Georgia told ABC they and their coworkers had <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/exclusive-inside-account-us-eavesdropping-americans/story?id=5987804&amp;singlePage=true#.Udohpz6Y6a5">listened in on the personal phone calls of soldiers</a> stationed overseas.
"Hey, check this out," one said he would be told, "there's good phone sex or there's some pillow talk, pull up this call, it's really funny, go check it out. It would be some colonel making pillow talk and we would say, 'Wow, this was crazy.'"
• NSA analyst Adrienne Kinne told ABC she listened to hundreds of private conversations between Americans, including many from the International Red Cross and Doctors without Borders.
• <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-nsa-spied-on-barack-obama-2004-russ-tice-2013-6">NSA whistleblower Russ Tice claims</a> that he saw NSA orders to tap the phone of then-Senator Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Senators John McCain and Diane Feinstein, then-Secretary of State Colin Powell, Gen. David Petraeus, and a current Supreme Court Justice.
"Outrageous abuses ... have happened, and it's all being kept hush hush," Tice <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-fisa-court-helps-nsa-avoid-warrants-2013-7">told Business Insider</a>. 
• Michael Hayden, who was NSA director (1999 – 2005) when <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nsa-whistleblower-william-binney-explains-nsa-surveillance-2012-8">the first</a> domestic spying <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nsa-has-been-collecting-us-phone-data-since-2001-2013-6">programs</a> began, corroborated Binney's claim when he <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/06/12/former-nsa-director-michael-hayden-responds-to-edward-snowden-claim.html" data-rapid_p="10">told The Daily Beast</a> that he remembered a collector who was fired for snooping on his ex-wife overseas.
• <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/nyc-cases-show-crooked-cops-abuse-fbi-database-162152158.html">Tom Hays of The Associated Press reports</a> there are "a batch of corruption cases in recent years against NYPD officers accused of abusing the FBI-operated National Crime Information Center database to cyber snoop on co-workers, tip off drug dealers, stage robberies and — most notoriously — <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/12/gilberto-valle-guilty-cannibal-cob-convicted-eat-women_n_2860378.html">scheme to abduct and eat women</a>."
The National Crime Information Center (NCIC) database, which is maintained by the FBI and provides 9 million data points every day, can be accessed by 90,000 law enforcement agencies across the country.
Hays notes: "How often the database is used for unauthorized purposes is unclear."
In response to the AP report, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/07/08/heres-what-can-go-wrong-when-the-government-builds-a-huge-database-about-americans/">Timothy B. Lee</a><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/07/08/heres-what-can-go-wrong-when-the-government-builds-a-huge-database-about-americans/"> of The Washington Post writes</a>: "These stories illustrate some of the kinds of misconduct that could occur with the NSA’s database of the nation’s phone calls."
Here's what Jonathon Turley, a constitutional law professor at George Washington University who has testified before Congress on the country's warrantless <keyword id="6354565" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="surveillance">surveillance</keyword> program, told ABC in 2008 after hearing the analysts' claims (emphasis ours): "This story is to surveillance law what Abu Ghraib was to prison law."

Egregious Cases Of US Government Employees Abusing Databases To Spy On Americans

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:480px"><div class="image">Getty Images</div></div>Rep. Justin Amash (R-Mich.) has <a href="http://amendments-rules.house.gov/amendments/AMASH_018_xml2718131717181718.pdf">proposed an amendment</a> to the 2014 National Defense Authorization Act to "<a href="https://www.popvox.com/bills/us/113/hamdt101">end authority for the blanket collection</a> of records under the Patriot Act," causing swift preemptive responses from the White House and the <keyword id="38879" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="NSA">NSA</keyword>.
The White House <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/amash-amendment-nsa-white-house-obama-veto-2013-7">urged</a> the House to reject the bill, and NSA Direct Gen. Keith B. Alexander <a href="http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/07/23/nsa-reportedly-calls-top-secret-emergency-meeting-ahead-of-vote-on-house-amendment-that-would-challenge-agencys-power/#ixzz2ZyFR9GLR">called</a> an "emergency" question and answer session which was at the "Top Secret/SCI level and ... strictly Members-Only."
The amendment would significantly restrain <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-fisa-court-helps-nsa-avoid-warrants-2013-7">the spy agency</a>'s domestic <keyword id="6392096" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Spying">spying</keyword> apparatus, which<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nsa-has-been-collecting-us-phone-data-since-2001-2013-6"> has been collecting</a> data on <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-story-of-joseph-nacchio-and-the-nsa-2013-6">almost</a> all U.S. phone calls with court orders since 2001. In all, the NSA has been allowed to "<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/infographic-how-the-nsa-intercepts-the-electronic-communications-of-americans-2012-5#ixzz2ZyaEWSKW">intercept and store 1.7 billion</a> emails, phone calls, and other types of communications" every day.
The Amash amendment would limit the collection of phone metadata to situations in which an individual "is the subject of an investigation described in section 501 of the Foreign Intelligence <keyword id="6354565" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="surveillance">Surveillance</keyword> Act."
Metadata does not include the content of calls (which are <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/07/tim-clemente-fbi_n_3229478.html">also collected</a> and stored) but does have the potential to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/what-you-can-learn-from-phone-metadata-2013-7">track a person's movements and associations</a>. The ACLU has <a href="http://www.aclu.org/national-security/aclu-files-lawsuit-challenging-constitutionality-nsa-phone-spying-program">filed a lawsuit</a> challenging the constitutionality of the bulk collection of metadata. 
Gen. Alexander, <a href="http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2013/06/general-keith-alexander-cyberwar/all/">the most powerful man in the history of American intelligence</a>, argues: "You need the haystack to find the needle."
Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee and has <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/wyden-and-udall-dont-believe-intelligence-officials-2013-7">challenged the effectiveness</a> of bulk collection programs, <a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/07/23/197485/sen-wyden-says-he-tried-to-warn.html#.Ue_7NWTtj5s#storylink=cpy">had this to say</a>:
 “If we do not seize this unique moment in our constitutional history to reform our surveillance laws and practices, we will live to regret it."
The legislation is also popular among privacy advocates who question <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/cia-presentation-on-big-data-2013-3?op=1">what the U.S. government does with that data</a> besides ostensibly catching terrorists, and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-nsa-can-abuse-data-on-americans-2013-7">how the system is abused</a>.
As then-Senator <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/joe-bidens-comments-about-nsa-spying-in-2006-2013-7#ixzz2ZyR8nP3q">Joe Biden said in 2006</a>: "[T]he real question here is: What do they do with this information that they collect that does not have anything to do with Al Qaeda?"
<div class="image-container display-table"><div><div class="image">AP/Rick BowmerThe NSA's new Utah Data Center in Bluffdale, Utah.</div></div></div>Initially top U.S. officials dissembled about the bulk phone data collection program.
During the March 12, hearing Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) asked Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, "Does the NSA collect any type of data at all on millions or hundreds of millions of Americans?"
"No, sir," Clapper replied.
Weeks later he admitted that his answer was "<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/james-clapper-lied-congress-nsa-surveillance-collection-spying-2013-7#ixzz2ZyJtn8bW">clearly erroneous</a>" after the Guardian <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/06/nsa-phone-records-verizon-court-order">published evidence</a>, acquired from NSA contractor <keyword id="1702690" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Edward-Snowden">Edward Snowden</keyword>, that the NSA was compelling Verizon to provide phone records on millions of Americans.
On June 13 Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/fbi-director-may-have-wrong-about-spying-2013-6#ixzz2ZySeB94f">asked</a> FBI Director Robert Mueller what the NSA needs to listen to the content of a domestic phone call.
Mueller said: "Then you would have to get a special, a particularized order from the FISA Court directed at that particular phone and that particular individual."
But on June 21 Glenn Greenwald and Mike Ball published top secret <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2013/jun/20/exhibit-a-procedures-nsa-document">procedures</a> reveal that it's largely up to the discretion of NSA analysts — as opposed to their superiors or the courts — to decide when to listen to U.S. phone calls collected <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/infographic-how-the-nsa-intercepts-the-electronic-communications-of-americans-2012-5">en masse</a>.
President Obama himself <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/07/politics/nsa-data-mining">told</a> the American people: "No one is listening to your phone calls."
But according to Russ Tice, the original NSA whistleblower, in the summer of 2004 someone was listening to Obama's phone calls after <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-nsa-spied-on-barack-obama-2004-russ-tice-2013-6">a NSA wiretap was ordered</a> for then-Senator of Illinois.
Tice added that he also saw orders to spy on Hillary Clinton, Senators John McCain and Diane Feinstein, then-Secretary of State Colin Powell, Gen. David Petraeus, and a current Supreme Court Justice <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utgIqNA0NX8">Samuel Alito</a>.
Here's what Amash said last night, citing the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nsa-spying-violated-the-constituion-2013-6">dubious constitutionality</a> of the NSA's domestic dragnet:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Pres Obama opposes my <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23NSA&amp;src=hash">#NSA</a> amendment, but American people overwhelmingly support it. Will your Rep stand with the WH or the Constitution?
</blockquote>


We'll keep you updated on the path of the amendment.

Why The White House Is Desperate To Stop The Amash Spying Amendment

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="REUTERS/Maks Levin" title_caption="Ukrainian servicemen play basketball in a school building in the eastern Ukrainian town of Ilovaysk August 27, 2014." class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/53ff875f6bb3f70a056391f8-960/ukraine-basketball-players.jpg"></a>REUTERS/Maks LevinUkrainian servicemen play basketball in a school building in the eastern Ukrainian town of Ilovaysk August 27, 2014.</div></div></div>Stocks fell as headlines out of Ukraine and Russia indicated that the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-fighting-war-invasion-russia-separatists-2014-8">situation in Eastern Ukraine escalated significantly</a>, as Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Russian troops have advanced across the border. The decline in stocks also marks the first time this week that the S&amp;P 500 did not make an all-time high.
First, the scoreboard:
<ul>
<li>Dow: 17,082.37, -39.6, (-0.2%)</li>
<li>S&amp;P 500: 1,996.41, -3.7, (-0.2%)</li>
<li>Nasdaq: 4,557.35, -12.2, (-0.3%)</li>
</ul>
And now, the top stories on Thursday:
1. The second estimate for <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/q2-gdp-2014-8">second quarter GDP</a> showed the economy grew 4.2% in the quarter, up from the 4% first estimated by the BEA last month. This topped the 3.9% that was expected by economists. One of the most encouraging parts of the report was the 8.4% increase in <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/capex-boom-is-happening-2014-8">nonresidential fixed investment</a>, which is seen as a proxy for business spending. This increase suggests "that businesses began to put cash to work in Q2 as the US economy rebounded from the early-year growth stumble," said TD Securities' Gennadiy Goldberg. 
2. Weekly<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/initial-claims-august-28-2014-8"> initial jobless claims</a> came in at 298,000, topping the 300,000 that was expected by economists. Following the report, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said, "In one line: Favorable claims trend signals strong payrolls." Shepherdson said the report is consistent with his projection for nonfarm payrolls to jump 250,000 in August. That report is due out next Friday.
3. Pending <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/pending-home-sales-july-2014-2014-8">home sales jumped 3.3%</a> in July, rebounding after a 1.3% decline in June. This also topped the 0.5% increase expected by economists. "Interest rates are lower than they were a year ago, price growth continues to moderate and total housing inventory is at its highest level since August 2012," said Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors.
4. In an interview with Bloomberg's Betty Liu, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/aigs-benmosche-cancer-prognosis-2014-8">outgoing AIG CEO Bob Benmosche</a> disclosed that he accelerated his retirement due to his deteriorating health. Benmosche told Liu that his cancer has worsened, and he has nine months to a year left to live. 
5. RadioShack <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/radioshack-shares-rallying-august-28-2014-8">shares surged on Thursday</a>, bringing their weekly gains to more than 100% after a report by Bloomberg's Jodi Xu and Lauren Coleman-Lochner said that hedge fund Standard General increased its stake in the troubled retailer and is in talks to raise cash to prevent bankruptcy. 
6. Abercrombie &amp; Fitch <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-end-of-an-era-at-abercrombie-and-fitch-2014-8">shares fell more than 5%</a> as sales continue to slow at the teen retailer, prompting the company to make a big change to its clothing lineup: no more logos. 
7. Morgan Stanley analyst <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/subprime-auto-loan-conversation-2014-8">Adam Jonas again published</a> a note warning on the growing number of subprime auto loans. In his note on Thursday, Jonas published a conversation he had with an Ohio Chevy dealer, who said that the length of auto loans has increased to 72 months and noted that there has been a marked increase in subprime lease loans. This follows a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-on-auto-sales-numbers-2014-6">June note from Jonas</a> that warned on the same topic. 
Don't Miss: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/david-tice-sees-30-60-fall-for-stocks-2014-8">DAVID TICE: Stocks Will Fall 30%-60% »</a>

STOCKS FALL: Here's What You Need To Know

Get ready for another 3 and 1/2-day week. And it'll be a busy one with a stacked line-up of reports on manufacturing, housing, and consumer confidence.
If you were off last week, you missed some big headlines. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-q3-revision-2014-12">GDP growth</a> was revised up to a whopping 5.0%. Meanwhile, the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/closing-bell-dec-26-2014-2014-12">S&amp;P 500 hit all-time highs</a> with the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-markets-dec-23-2014-2014-12">Dow crossing 18,000</a> for the first time ever.
Here's your Monday Scouting Report:
Top Stories
<ul>
<li>
GDP. There will always be naysayers skeptical of reports as strong as last week's GDP report. For what its worth, BMO Capital's Jennifer Lee notes that all of the popular <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-q3-revision-2014-12">adjusted GDP metrics still hit multiyear highs</a>. "Real gross domestic purchases (or GDP ex net exports) grew 4.1% annualized (was estimated at 3.0%), the second quarter in a row of 4%-plus gains. Final domestic demand (or GDP ex inventories and net exports) grew 4.1% annualized (was estimated at 3.2%), a four-year high. Final sales (or GDP ex inventories) grew 5.0% annualized (was estimated at 4.1%), an eight-year high."
</li>
</ul>
Economic Calendar 
<ul>
<li>
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (Mon): Economists estimate this regional manufacturing index slipped to 9.0 in December from 10.5 in November. "The headline index in the New York Fed&#xa0; manufacturing survey fell sharply in December," UBS's Kevin Cummins noted. "The details of the report were also especially weak, except the employment index, which remained positive.&#xa0; The Philadelphia Fed headline index also fell in December but did not show nearly the same degree of weakness as NY." 
</li>
<li>
S&amp;P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (Tues): Economists estimate home prices climbed by 0.40% month-over-month in October or 4.35% year-over-year. "Figures released by data provider CoreLogic suggest that home selling prices in the 20 major metropolitan areas covered by the S&amp;P/Case-Shiller survey jumped by 1.1% in October - the largest increase in 12 months," Societe Generale economists estimated. "Most of that gain likely reflected seasonal adjustments, however. Indeed, before seasonal adjustment, home prices probably edged just 0.2% higher during the reference period, placing the latest reading of 174.0 an unchanged 4.9% above the level recorded in October 2013. Our forecast, if on the mark, would leave home prices roughly 17% below their pre-Great Recession high."</li>
<li>
Consumer Confidence Index (Tues): Economists estimate this measure of sentiment jumped to 94.0 in December from 88.7 in November. "The index fell to 88.7 last month after hitting a seven-year high of 94.5 in October," Credit Suisse economists noted. "We forecast a December level of 93.0 given significant further declines in gasoline prices and generally positive news on job prospects. Possibly limiting the upside would be the recent financial market volatility sparked by negative news from abroad."</li>
<li>
Initial Jobless Claims (Wed): Economists estimate the weekly jobless claims climbed to 287,000 from 280,000 a week ago. "With jobless claims consistently trending below 300k and withheld income tax receipts growing at a 6%-plus annual pace, the outlook for consumption remains highly positive," Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna said.</li>
<li>
Chicago PMI (Wed): Economists estimate this activity index was unchanged at 60.8 in December. "The Chicago business barometer index has been volatile recently, but has remained over 60 for the past four releases," Nomura economists noted. "The new orders and order backlog sub-indexes remained elevated in November, providing support for future activity."</li>
<li>
Pending Home Sales (Wed): Economists estimate pending sales climbed by 0.5% in November. "MBA applications for purchase rose 4.5% m/m in November, and the NAHB buyer traffic measure rose to 45 (from 41), both indicating a rise in pending home sales on the month," Barclays economists said.</li>
<li>The US stock markets will close at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and they'll be closed all day Thursday.</li>
<li>
Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Fri): Economists estimate this index of manufacturing fell to 54.0 in December from 54.8 in November. "Softer output and employment numbers merely represent a cooling in the pace of expansion from unusually strong rates earlier in the year, but also send a warning light to policymakers that the fourth quarter is likely to see a weakening in the pace of economic growth, which is starting to hit hiring," <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/markit-us-pmi-dec-2014-2014-12">Markit's Chris Williamson said</a>.&#xa0;"We expect this weakening to become evident in the official data early in the new year, meaning rate setters will continue to err on the side of caution in terms of when the economy may be ready for higher interest rates, especially as the survey data also highlight a further drop in inflationary pressures."</li>
<li>
Construction Spending (Fri): Economists estimate construction spending climbed by 0.4% in November. "The stronger than expected housing starts report points to a decent further gain in homebuilding, and our AlphaWise team sees continued positive indications for nonresidential spending, which has been restrained recently by a correction in power plant construction," Morgan Stanley's Ted Wieseman said. "Government spending will likely be a drag in November, though, as the smaller and more volatile federal government component reverses a 19% spike in October."</li>
<li>
ISM Manufacturing (Fri): Economists estimate this manufacturing index fell to 57.5 in December from 58.7 in November. From UBS's Cummins: "Regional manufacturing surveys have been softer so far in December. The Empire State current activity index signalled a contraction in activity and most of the details of the report were uniformly dismal. (The exception was the employment index.) However, the New York Fed measure has been weak relative to other measures of activity in recent months. The Philadelphia Fed headline index also fell in December but did not show nearly the same degree of weakness as NY. The Markit flash PMI, although edging down a point, held on to a fairly healthy level in December. We forecast a modest decline in the ISM index, to 5x-a level that signals a solid trend in output growth."</li>
</ul>
Market Commentary
Almost <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/barrons-2015-outlook-2014-12">every major strategist on Wall Street</a> is telling clients that stocks are going higher in 2015. However, almost all of those strategists are convinced gains will be very modest.
But in the past week, we've heard from a trio of pros who warn bad things could be coming.
"Since 1875, we have never seen the S&amp;P rise for seven calendar years in a row, so an eighth year would seem highly unlikely," Societe Generale's Roland Kaloyan said in a Dec. 17 note to clients. "<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/socgen-2015-global-equity-outlook-2014-12">We assume that the S&amp;P 500 will finish the year slightly down</a> as the strengthening of the US dollar and the new tightening cycle offset the strong US GDP growth already priced-in at the start of the year."
"I have the same kind of feel in '98 and '99; also '05 and '06," Uber bear <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/david-tice-is-bearish-2014-12">David Tice told CNBC</a>. "This is going to end badly. I have every confidence in the world."
Tice said that stocks are doomed to plunge by 30%-60%. But, he doesn't have much skin in the game as he's not actually shorting the market. 
<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/102276863">Appaloosa Management's David Tepper</a>, however, has lots of skin in the game. 
"This year rhymes with 1998," Tepper said to CNBC. "Russia goes bad. Easing [is] coming from Europe. Sets up 1999 ... [oops] I mean 2015... You [just] have to be aware of the possibility for some sort of overvaluation of the markets. And they are fair value now."
For more insight about the middle market, visit <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v1/url?u=http://mid-marketpulse.com&amp;k=S62Tl7vLGjW6AAK5ZFwEoQ%3D%3D%0A&amp;r=%2B2sEypbBAnV2mc5PLhBR08ZBMT%2BquZZGjxd0T7NNaP4%3D%0A&amp;m=UtLLChRIkxZLioNs9a5IxKFS7RONkU%2FjCuvoQ68P2Hw%3D%0A&amp;s=28acf971eb6ce00a636a9e28c206665a00dc8a6b849c5fbdd6236e929e9008ce" target="_blank">mid-marketpulse.com</a>.

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