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A couple of years back, anybody with a full-time job across the globe used to say that they work a "9 to 5 (9 am to 5 pm)." However, as per a recent report, that is no longer the average working hours and more and more employees are now adapting to a <keyword id="23061305" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="flexible-work-style" source="keywords">flexible work style</keyword>. The <keyword id="20534318" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="coronavirus-pandemic" source="keywords">coronavirus pandemic</keyword>, in 2020, saw a major change in work patterns across the globe. As companies shifted their operations remote overnight, employees began working at their own pace, at their own time. At the time, many reports had come up that the future of work would be flexibility in terms of working hours and location. And as per a latest report, that has started happening. <h2>Bye bye 9-to-5 </h2> The standard 9-to-5 workday has now transitioned to more of a 10-to-4 routine, according to a 2023 Global Traffic Scorecard by INRIX Inc, a traffic analysis firm. This shift means fewer people are commuting during the early hours, creating a new trend in daily traffic flow. With fewer people hitting the road in the early morning or evening, traffic congestion has now shifted to the middle of the day. A CNBC report quotes Bob Pishue, a transportation analyst who authored the INRIX report, saying, "We’re seeing less activity in the morning and evening but much more around noon." Surprisingly, the number of trips made around noon is now almost equal to those at 9 am and 5 pm What was once a lull between morning and evening traffic has transformed into a peak period of congestion. <h2><keyword id="19901232" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="work-life-balance" source="keywords">Work-life balance</keyword> takes center stage </h2> The report also quotes David Satterwhite, CEO of Chronus. He says that many employees have embraced the ability to work remotely and only come into the office when absolutely necessary. This might mean arriving late, leaving early, or coming in for a brief meeting before heading back home. This trend, often called “coffee badging,” has become widely accepted as employees pop into the office for short stints and then continue their workday elsewhere. A recent survey from Owl Labs found that 58 percent of hybrid workers admitted to checking into the office for just a few hours before leaving. These days, more workers prioritise work-life balance, flexible hours, and mental health support over climbing the corporate ladder. Many are reluctant to spend more time at the office than necessary. In fact, if the option to work from home were removed, 66% of workers said they would start searching for a new job that offered more flexibility, according to Owl Labs. Of those, around 39% would quit right away. In January this year, a study conducted by Randstad also revealed that workers prioritise work-life balance over salary when evaluating potential job opportunities. According to the study, 57 percent of employees would reject a job offer if it negatively impacted their work-life balance. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/openai-to-meta-ai-companies-that-were-accused-of-copyright-infringement/articleshow/113088658.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank"></a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/nykaa-sues-tata-cliq-ceo-gopal-asthana-for-contract-breach-says-he-approached-employees-to-join-rival-company/articleshow/113082094.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Nykaa sues Tata Cliq CEO Gopal Asthana for contract breach, says he approached employees to join rival company</a> OpenAI to Meta: AI companies that were accused of copyright infringement

No more 9 to 5: Employees are coming to work late and leaving early, new data shows

With how easy they can make our day-to-day lives, it is easy to get swept up by the impressive achievements of apps like <keyword id="19918826" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ChatGPT" source="keywords">ChatGPT</keyword>, Midjourney, and <keyword id="20055508" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="DALL-E" source="keywords">DALL-E</keyword>. These <keyword id="21195046" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AI-applications" source="keywords">AI applications</keyword>, powered by <keyword id="19897804" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="large-language-models" source="keywords">large language models</keyword> (LLMs), can generate text, create images, and hold conversations that mimic human interactions. But according to a recent study by Apple Computer Company researchers, the intelligence displayed by these AI systems is far from genuine. <h2>The illusion of intelligence</h2>The Apple research team, led by a trio of AI experts, conducted a series of tests on various popular LLMs. They found that while these models appear intelligent on the surface, their responses are often unreliable when asked to perform tasks requiring true <keyword id="21233087" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="logical-reasoning" source="keywords">logical reasoning</keyword>. This discrepancy, they argue, reveals that LLMs don’t actually “understand” the questions they’re answering. Instead, they simply recognise familiar patterns and respond based on statistical probabilities, rather than meaningful comprehension. To illustrate this point, the researchers used a simple analogy: imagine a child asking their parent how many apples are in a bag. The child also mentions that some of the apples are too small to eat. Both the child and the parent understand that the size of the apples has no bearing on their quantity. However, when <keyword id="19924380" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AI-models" source="keywords">AI models</keyword> are presented with similarly structured questions — questions with information that can be considered unnecessary (like the size of the apples) — they frequently become confused, offering nonsensical or incorrect answers. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="114046455" title="Love ChatGPT and Alexa? This year’s Physics Nobel Prize has been awarded to two scientists who made these AI technologies possible" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>In their study, the researchers asked the AI models hundreds of questions, including some with non-pertinent details. They found that even minor changes in phrasing or context were enough to throw off the models. These AIs, despite their advanced programming, struggled to filter out irrelevant information, suggesting that they lack the capacity for genuine logical reasoning. <h2>How do modern AI apps work?</h2>Understanding why AI models like ChatGPT struggle with logic and nuance requires a closer look at how these systems function. At their core, LLMs are based on complex machine learning algorithms that analyse vast amounts of text data to learn language patterns. Once trained, these models use probabilities to generate responses based on what they’ve seen in their training data. However, they don’t “understand” language the way humans do. When an LLM receives a prompt, it breaks down the text into tokens and predicts the next word in a sequence based on statistical likelihood. This approach allows the AI to generate coherent, contextually relevant responses but doesn’t equip it to handle questions that require deeper, contextual reasoning. In essence, AI models are mimicking language without truly grasping the meaning behind it. To elaborate on the earlier example, if asked, “How many apples are in a bag if three are too small to eat?” a human would immediately recognise that the size of the apples has no impact on the total count. An AI, on the other hand, may get tripped up by the additional detail and offer a convoluted response because it cannot separate what’s important from what’s not. Apple’s researchers suggest that this limitation is a fundamental flaw in how AI models are designed. While the technology has advanced rapidly, the underlying mechanics remain rooted in <keyword id="20034261" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pattern-recognition" source="keywords">pattern recognition</keyword> rather than true comprehension. As a result, today’s AI applications are better suited for tasks that involve straightforward pattern matching, like language translation or text prediction, but struggle when asked to exhibit <keyword id="23580940" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="human-like-intelligence" source="keywords">human-like intelligence</keyword>. <h2>Overestimating AI capabilities can have risks</h2>Because these modern AI models can produce remarkably human-like text, many have a tendency to attribute greater intelligence and understanding to them than they actually possess. This misconception can lead to unintended consequences, such as relying on AI for critical decision-making in areas where accuracy and logical reasoning are paramount — such as in business decisions as more and more companies adopt AI. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="114284609" title="Even high school interns are able to use common AI tools to bypass security and launch bots on X, Facebook and other social media: report" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>The researchers also caution that the “illusion” of intelligence can make it difficult for users to recognise when an AI is providing incorrect information. In their tests, Apple’s team noted that LLMs frequently gave answers that sounded correct on the surface but fell apart upon closer inspection. These findings highlight the importance of scrutinising AI-generated content and using these tools as supplements to human expertise rather than replacements for it. As AI continues to evolve, researchers will need to explore new approaches that go beyond pattern recognition. Achieving genuine AI intelligence will likely require breakthroughs in fields like cognitive computing and neuromorphic engineering — fields that aim to create systems capable of human-like understanding and reasoning. For now, the takeaway from Apple’s research is clear: despite their impressive capabilities, today’s AI apps are tools, not thinkers. As Apple researchers pointed out, these models are designed to simulate understanding but lack the cognitive depth to handle complex reasoning. Recognising these limitations is crucial as we integrate AI into more aspects of our lives. The findings of this research have been published in a preprint server and can be accessed <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2410.05229">here</a>.

Apple engineers assert the AI apps of today are essentially still just fakes that lack 'true' intelligence

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks were mixed on Monday. Nvidia stock continued to move lower following a big rally last week. </li><li>With earnings season over, it's a quiet week on the macro front for investors.</li></ul>US stocks traded mixed on Monday as investors gear up for a new set of inflation data later in the week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded higher, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were slightly lower, led by a continued pause in the AI trade with Nvidia shares down about 2% to $123.88."Some profit-taking seems entirely reasonable given NVIDIA's meteoric rise. The stock was up over 180% this year alone. But if it continues to lose ground, then there's a danger of contagion, with selling spreading to other big tech names. If that were the case, then the market could be in for a deeper and more protracted pull-back," Trade Nation senior market analyst David Morrison said.With earnings season over, investors will turn their attention to the PCE inflation data set to be released on Friday, which happens to be the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.Economists expect year-over-year Core PCE to be 2.6% in May, compared to April's reading of 2.7%.Investors will also keep an eye on initial jobless claims data, pending home sales, and a second revision to first-quarter GDP, all of which should help determine just how strong the US economy really is.All of this data will help inform investors as to when the Fed might launch its first interest rate cut of the cycle, with markets expecting the first rate cut to occur in September.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,462.14, down 0.03% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,219.26, up 0.18% (+68.93 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,652.33, down 0.22% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-us-economy-consumer-spending-hard-landing-inflation-slowdown-2024-6">American's spending patterns are flashing a warning of a possible consumer-led recession.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-prediction-8000-bull-rally-ed-yardeni-2024-6">Market veteran Ed Yardeni reiterated his view that the S&amp;P 500 will surge to 8,000 by the end of the decade.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/used-electric-vehicles-price-crash-gas-cars-ev-demand-tesla-2024-6">Used electric vehicle prices are plunging as buyers shift back to hybrid vehicles.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dropped 0.46% to $80.36 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was declined by 0.45% to $84.86 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> edged higher by 0.36% to $2,339.60 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.25%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> dropped 3.10% to $61,220.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed as investors gear up for more inflation data this week

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Nassim Taleb warns against drawing wrong conclusions from noisy market headlines.</li><li>He criticizes the US for high debt and low growth, leading a fragile financial system.</li></ul>In life or markets, the first rule of thumb is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-warns-ai-bubble-stock-market-2023-6">avoiding ruin</a>. But that can be hard in a noisy world, according to Nassim Nicholas Taleb.If you read press headlines plagued with risk and uncertainty, and you're not paying close attention to the details, you can end up comparing dissimilar events and drawing the wrong conclusions, he told an audience at The Swedish Residence on Thursday.Taleb's career in trading led him to conclude that assuming today would be like yesterday is nothing more than betting on randomness and winning on luck. On more than one occasion, he witnessed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-bubble-sp500-outlook-valuations-1929-2000-hussman-2024-9">market crashes</a> that followed strong bullish trends, in which many of his fellow traders lost it all, according to the book "Chaos Kings" by Scott Patterson.His trading style didn't follow the crowd. Taleb's early success came from buying cheap options that could have explosive upsides from rare events. His contrarian approach allowed him to rake in gains during the 1987 crash, when he had positions in cheap Eurodollar options that benefited from volatility. When the tides turned, he was flipping $2 to $3 contracts for $300 to $500, Patterson wrote. In 1998, it happened again after Russia defaulted on its debt, causing a stock market meltdown. Taleb made money on put options he bought on Russian banks, the book noted.By 2007, he had enough experience under his belt to publish the book, "The Black Swan," where he popularized the term as a representation of rare, unpredictable events that could have huge impacts, such as 9/11.From that, a way to measure unpredictability was born that included gray swan events: rare but predictable events like the 2008 financial crisis that showed signs of trouble through the housing bubble.Then there are fat-tailed events that, in most instances, have normal outcomes, and you don't expect to have huge impacts on markets. But, in one or a handful of data points, the outcome can be so extreme they skew the model. While Taleb didn't coin it, he helped further popularize it. Here, a pandemic is an example of both a gray and fat-tailed event because their outcomes can be tracked, while some can remain local, like ebola, or spread rapidly, like COVID.<h2 id="a4df31ed-faa5-4086-954f-d3a06f7787af">Betting on unpredictability</h2>We're familiar with the term "don't panic." It's probably advice you received at some point when things were going off the edge. For Taleb, if you're going to panic, do it early.When the coronavirus hit, that's what he did. According to Patterson's book, the alarming rate of contagion, coupled with an interconnected planet where global travel was constant, made him conclude that this could get very big, very fast.Taleb and a team of others published a<a target="_blank" href="https://necsi.edu/systemic-risk-of-pandemic-via-novel-pathogens-coronavirus-a-note"> note on January 26</a> categorizing the outbreak as an extreme fat-tailed event that could have the risk of ruin because of its non-linear spread. It was almost three months before the US declared a national emergency on March 13 and before the stock market crashed on March 20.Universa Investments, a hedge fund where Taleb is a distinguished scientific advisor, posted a<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/black-swan-fund-universa-investments-4000-percent-return-hedging-coronavirus-2020-4-1029076165"> 4,144% return</a> on the crash of 2020. A bystander could easily assume that the fund, which specializes in profiting from market shocks, turned certain positions on in response to the mounting fears. But that was far from the case. Instead, the firm's flagship tail-risk hedging strategy continually purchases daily put options that could rake in gains in the event of a crash.Brandon Yarckin, COO of Universa, told Business Insider that as Taleb drafts his academic work around events that don't directly apply to finance, such as Covid, there are corollaries to that thought process that help the investment firm build portfolios. Understanding the interconnectedness and how systems behave in relation to how markets behave is key to that process, he said. In the example of a pandemic, he noted that there are similarities between how diseases spread and how markets crash.<h2 id="99fc0009-0feb-4026-a474-a6f869703ff3">US deficit and the dollar</h2>During the Thursday evening talk, Taleb addressed the US deficit and mounting debt, both of which swelled after the pandemic.He highlighted the four categories of debt-based countries: those with low growth and high or low debt, and those with high growth and high or low debt. The US is in the category of low growth and high debt. The issue, he said, is that debt isn't made for large mature economies, which is where it's usually found most.This is because the growth trajectory tends to follow the S-curve pattern: slow, then rapid, then leveling off. You don't need to continue growing once you're on top of the curve. However, if a country accumulates high debt, then continued growth is required to absorb it, he noted. The outcome is a fragile leveraged financial system with increased interconnected risk, which is the US' current predicament, he added.Taleb emphasized that government expenditures aren't purely to blame. The US is stuck with accumulating debt-servicing costs, and it's now spending more on interest payments than military spending. This is creating a snowball effect, where it must keep borrowing the difference. At present, Taleb doesn't believe that the ballooning debt could be solved politically or by increased demand for US bonds.Mark Spitznagel, Universa's founder and CIO, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biggest-stock-market-crash-since-1929-coming-mark-spitznagel-interview-2024-3">previously told Business Insider</a> that the mounting credit bubble could lead to a massive stock market crash that could be worse than 1929.As for the US dollar, for the most part, people like to transact with it because it's a stable currency, Taleb said. The real question is whether they use it as a store of value. Here, Taleb believes, is where the problem lies. The big question he asked the audience is, "How safe do you feel putting your money in Western banks?"From his perspective, not very safe. Since 2022, the financial and monetary systems have been used as a foreign policy tool, he said. Bank accounts and assets of Russian subjects have been frozen based on their political ties. Taleb believes that this type of behavior harms the US dollar long-term.

The godfather of black-swan hedging explains why mounting US debt and the weaponization of the dollar are leading risks today  

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Nvidia stock has a lot more room to run, according to Dan Niles.</li><li>The Niles Investment founder compared Nvidia to Cisco prior to the peak of the dot-com bubble.</li></ul>Nvidia stock has slid since the company reported earnings last month, but its rally is nowhere close to over.That's according to Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager of Niles Investment Management, who's still bullish on the artificial intelligence titan for the foreseeable future. That's because firms are still willing to shell out on AI spending — and Nvidia looks like it's following the same pattern as other firms that soared during past tech bubbles, he told CNBC in a recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iu0TcgvIJio">interview</a>."I still believe you have a lot of room for spend," Niles said of AI. "What I'm saying is that in the short term, I think you've got a digestion phase that you just have to go through. I firmly believe that in the next several years, Nvidia's revenues will again be able to double from current levels, and the stock will be able to double as well."Cisco, which dominated the internet bubble in the late nineties, saw its revenue peak at around 15 times what it posted in 1994, while its stock had soared nearly 4,000% from that year through 2000. It plunged during the dot-com crash, with shares plummeting around 85% peak-to-trough.Nvidia shares, by comparison, have risen around 1,500% over the last six years. Niles suggested that this could mean the chipmaker has more upside ahead before a fallout."I've lived through '01, '02. These things can go on longer than you've ever imagined possible," he added.In the short term, Niles' forecast is at t<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-prediction-nvda-price-valuation-blackwell-ai-chip-gpu-2024-8">he high end among analysts</a> watching Nvidia. But most of Wall Street remains optimistic about the chipmaker in the quarters ahead, especially as the company looks poised to roll out its next-gen <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-unveils-next-generation-ai-chip-blackwell-2024-3">Blackwell</a> AI chip.Analysts have an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda/analyst-research">average price target</a> of $153.24 a share, according to Nasdaq data, implying another 44% upside from its current levels.The chipmaker has hit a rough stretch in recent weeks, with shares dropping 27% from their peak earlier this summer. Investors have been dismayed by the delay of the Blackwell chip, but more importantly, many are also questioning whether all of the billions of AI spending by Nvidia's customers will end up generating a return anytime soon.

Nvidia stock is on track to double in coming years as AI follows the path of past tech bubbles, portfolio manager says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A new academic study said people are diverting stock investments into legal gambling.</li><li>The researchers founded that household investments are reduced by roughly $2 for ever dollar wagered.</li></ul>The surging popularity of legal sports betting has been met with fanfare from American consumers. But a new <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4881086">working study</a> finds its rise is coming at the expense of stock investments.The research, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, found that the net investments held by a household is reduced by roughly $2 for every dollar directed towards a bet."Our results suggest that access to online sports betting comes at the expense of equity market attachment and exacerbates financial difficulties faced by constrained households," a group of five academic researchers wrote.Betting took over the modern American sports experience in 2018, when the Supreme Court overruled a federal law prohibiting it. States were left with the control, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sports-betting-apps-online-gambling-lottery-draftkings-fanduel-2024-3">38</a> have since legalized it.With gambling made as simple as downloading an app, billions have been wagered. Where the total amount bet in the US stood at $1.1 billion in January 2019, this figure catapulted to $14 billion the same month this year, data from the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/news/us-betting-revenue-tracker/">Sports Book Review</a> shows.The study said US households bet an average of $1,100 per year, or $280 a quarter — a number that's continued to grow by $25 per quarter.Meanwhile, the researchers found that net investments typically fell nearly 14% in the two to three years after a legalization occurred in a state.Further, the study noted that financially constrained households tend to contribute a larger chunk of their income toward sports gambling, and are therefore hit harder by the negative effects."These households, already in relatively bad financial shape, are more likely to divert funds from their investment portfolios to betting activity," the researchers wrote. "Given that sports betting has a negative expected value, this finding underscores the potential for sports betting legalization to exacerbate financial vulnerability and hardship."A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sports-betting-debt-bankruptcy-gambling-young-men-research-addiction-2024-8">separate recent working paper</a> reached a similar conclusion, outlining how credit has been damaged in areas where sports gambling is legal. In these areas, credit scores have dipped 1%, while debt collection and bankruptcies have jumped 8% and 28%, respectively."It's never enough," Michelle Malkin, the director of East Carolina University's Gambling Research &amp; Policy Initiative, previously told Business Insider. "You've got to keep on gambling. So it's this cyclical thought pattern of, 'I can fix my problems by keeping gambling and getting that next win.'"

The rise of legal sports gambling is coming at the expense of stock investing, new study shows     

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Slowing consumer spending could be a warning for the US economy. </li></ul>America's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-slowdown-recession-shopping-retail-spending-expectations-us-economy-outlook-2023-11">stimulus-fueled shopping spree</a> looks just about over — and lower spending could be a signal that a consumer-led downturn is on the horizon, economic experts say.Consumers are finally starting to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-hard-landing-economy-consumer-spending-slowdown-growth-gdp-2024-5#:~:text=Consumers%20are%20finally%20slowing%20their,and%20a%20weakening%20job%20market.">rein in their spending habits</a>, which could weigh on the economy after a long period of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hate-spending-consumers-economic-sentiment-retail-sales-inflation-gdp-growth-2024-4">robust spending has propped up economic growth</a> over the past few years. Retail spending ticked 0.1% higher in May, but sales volume has dropped 1.3% year-over-year over the last three months, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html">US Census data</a> shows.That adds to a 4% decline in retail sales in the first quarter — and it's a strong sign the long-awaited consumer recession is on the horizon, economist David Rosenberg said recently."The weakness in the consumer can now be considered a 'trend' ... "The 'build in' for Q2 real retail sales is now negative, coming on the heels of a -4.4% annualized decline in Q1," he said in a note to clients this week. "Early signs of a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-layoffs-job-market-fed-rate-cuts-economy-outlook-sternlicht-2024-6">consumer recession</a> finally coming to the fore."Shoppers aren't opening their wallets as easily as they deal with the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-youre-still-spending-much-of-your-budget-on-food-2024-2">cumulative effects of inflation</a> and a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-market-fed-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-goldman-sachs-2024-6">cooler job market</a>.A higher cost of living and sluggish hiring activity were cited as key reasons <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cost-of-living-what-is-middle-class-housing-market-2024-4">consumer sentiment has soured</a>, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/the-state-of-the-us-consumer">a recent McKinsey survey</a>. Among those surveyed by the consulting firm, 55% said they felt "pessimistic" or had "mixed" feelings about the economy in the second quarter. "In general, consumer attitudes remain depressed relative to pre-pandemic — likely a function of lingering angst over inflation and interest rates," Deutsche Bank strategists said in a recent note. "Though the labor market appears strong on the surface, consumers' confidence around the labor outlook has begun to slip and suggests a potential pick up in the unemployment rate."Consumer finances, especially among lower- to middle-income households, are also looking worse than they did last year. The <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS">delinquency rate on credit card loans</a> ha risen to its highest level in 13 years, according to Federal Reserve data.76% of consumers, meanwhile, said they made a "trade-down" in the first quarter, such as by searching for cheaper prices or switching to a cheaper brand, the McKinsey survey found."The consumer is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-pomboy-consumer-spending-savings-debt-inflation-interest-rates-recession-2024-5">spent up and lent up</a>," Stephanie Pomboy, a veteran forecaster who was among the commentators who called the 2008 financial crisis, said in a recent interview with the "Thoughtful Money" podcast. "They're spending every dollar they have, and then some, just to keep up with the basic necessities."According to the McKinsey survey, 37% of consumers said they intended to reduce their spending on takeout meals, and 35% said they intended to spend less at sit-down restaurants. More than 30% of respondents said they planned on spending less money on international and domestic flights, while 32% said they would spend less on alcohol.Those spending cuts could deal a blow to GDP, which has already softened after a remarkably strong few quarters in 2023. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-economy-growth-2024-4">The economy grew 1.6%</a> in the first quarter of this year, compared to 4.9% and 3.4% in the third and fourth quarters of last year. The US has 52% chance of slipping into recession by May of next year, according to projections from the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf">New York Fed</a>."A further slowing likely looms in Q3," Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics said of total consumption in a note this week. "The slowdown is genuine, and still developing."

Americans' spending patterns are flashing a warning of a possible consumer-led recession

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The stock market is following a rare pattern that could signal big gains next year, NDR said.</li><li>The S&amp;P 500 rallied for five months straight this year, followed by three consecutive months of losses. </li></ul>A rare pattern of gains and losses in the S&amp;P 500 is flashing a bullish signal that the benchmark index could be in for a double-digit rise in the year ahead, analysts from Ned Davis Research said in a note this week.A five-month winning streak earlier this year was immediately followed by a three-month selloff from August through October. That's an unusual pattern in the history of the market, one that has only been observe four times since 1926. Importantly for investors, it's typically been followed by a period of strong gains in stocks over the next year, Ned Davis wrote on Wednesday. In all instances of the S&amp;P 500 posting at least five straight winning months before a three-month losing streak, the S&amp;P 500 has gained a median 12% over the following six months, according to NDR data. And over the following 12 months, the index gained a median 21%.The stock market's current winning and losing streak most resemble the patterns seen in 1975 and 2016, strategists said. In those instances, stocks gained a respective 22.5% and 12.1% in the following six months. "Over the past 50 years, the S&amp;P 500 was up every time from one to 12 months later," the strategists said. "From a bull/bear cycle standpoint, the early bull stages of 1975 and 2016 are the most akin to 2023, and their double-digit gains six months later are encouraging," they added.The current selloff in stocks, though, is lasting an unusually long time. "At 39 market days, it is the longest in the study. The market has work to do to avoid being the first negative case."Stocks are up to start November but have wobbled for the past three months as investors adjust to the outlook for interest rates remaining high for longer. That's sent bond yields soaring, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury hitting a 16-year-high in October and helping to push the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-on-verge-of-technical-breakdown-support-2023-10">S&amp;P 500 into correction territory last week</a>.Still, market commentators have made a bullish case for equities into 2024, as the economy remains robust and the Fed looks mostly done with its aggressive interest rate hikes to lower inflation. More dovish comments from Fed officials could <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-year-end-rally-dovish-fed-rate-hikes-2023-10">cause stocks to rally into the end of the year</a>, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee, who previously predicted the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-rally-bull-market-forecast-inflation-fundstrat-2023-8">S&amp;P 500 could retest its all-time-high by the end of 2023</a>.

The stock market is following a rare pattern that could signal double-digit gains next year

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The S&amp;P 500's record-setting rally this year has sparked a wave of price target increases from Wall Street.</li><li>The most bullish S&amp;P 500 price target is 6,000 from Evercore ISI, which represents a gain of about 7%. </li></ul>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> has soared this year, with the index jumping about 15% to record highs in the first half.With the second half of 2024 underway, Wall Street strategists are updating their year-end price targets for the S&amp;P 500, and nearly all of them are leaning bullish as they increase their forecasts.While the average year-end S&amp;P 500 price target is 5,429, according to data from Bloomberg, the median year-end price target is 5,600. The S&amp;P 500 traded around 5,630 on Friday.These are the updated stock market predictions of some of the most bullish strategists on Wall Street.<h3 id="e8a2664b-0299-431a-820a-50662c3b41ef">Evercore ISI: S&amp;P 500 price target of 6,000</h3>Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-price-target-bullish-high-6000-yearend-bubble-2024-6">went from bearish to the biggest bull on Wall Street</a> when he raised his year-end S&amp;P 500 price target last month to 6,000 from 4,750.Emanuel's price target represents potential upside of 7% for the S&amp;P 500 between now and the end of the year, and would represent a full-year gain of 26%. "AI revolution is in the early innings" and that should lead to continued strength in earnings growth, Emanuel said. Emanuel forecasts S&amp;P 500 EPS growth of 8% and 5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively."The pandemic changed everything. Record stimulus, elevated household cash balances and low leverage support the consumer. Then came AI. Today, Gen AI's productivity potential in every job and sector is inflecting. The backdrop of slowing inflation, a Fed intent on cutting rates and steady growth have supported Goldilocks," Emanuel said.And while the stock market's valuation multiple may be high, Emanuel said they're justified."High multiples are supported by companies' proven record of managing costs and maintaining/growing margins," Emanuel explained.<h3 id="20544edb-138c-45be-b923-fba393eb3bf7">Oppenheimer: S&amp;P 500 price target of 5,900</h3>Oppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/oppenheimer-sp500-outlook-bull-run-tech-stocks-overconcentration-broader-rally-2024-7">increased his year-end price target to 5,900 from 5,500</a> this month, driven by continued resilience in the US consumer."Just like before, it's a matter of the fundamentals, where they stand right now," John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer's chief investment strategist, told CNBC. "It includes the resilience of the consumer, even as the economy slows, quite a bit of resilience there — the resilience in business, job growth, wage growth."Importantly, the potential gains aren't being driven by short-term investors, but rather by long-term investors who have to park their money somewhere to fund their retirement, and stocks are the likely winners."It's driven a lot by intermediate- to longer-term investors, some of which are just the citizenry recognizes that there's real threats to Social Security stability, and people realize they need to play a role in their own retirement," Stoltzfus said.<h3 id="42d64867-e43e-43c4-8f71-5b0beee7084c">Yardeni Research: S&amp;P 500 price target of 5,800</h3>Yardeni Research raised its year-end S&amp;P 500 price target to 5,800 from 5,400 this week.Strategist Eric Wallerstein said the combination of $6 trillion in sidelined cash and imminent interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve should drive stock prices higher."We're still targeting SPX 8000 by end of decade. Our Roaring 2020s scenario is just being discounted faster than we anticipated. We don't think rate cuts are necessary, but with Q2 GDPNow at 2% and $6.15 trillion in money-market funds, rate cuts will further fuel a meltup," Wallerstein said on Thursday.Wallerstein added that, unlike the dot-com bubble in 2000, company profits are booming right now, which should lead to sustainable stock price gains.Additionally, Wallerstein said the stock market's rally should expand to companies other than the mega-cap tech stocks as AI benefits begin to trickle down to other companies outside of the technology sector.<h3 id="22a75c35-9f70-4f22-bd4c-4f35d98221a5">Ned Davis Research: S&amp;P 500 price target of 5,725</h3>A strong rally in the stock market this year led to Ned Davis Research increasing its year-end S&amp;P 500 price target to 5,725 from 4,900 last month.The research firm said as long as earnings growth continues to accelerate, even if just slightly, it should fuel a continued rally in stock prices."The modest earnings acceleration is continuing, the economy and inflation appear to be moderating enough for the Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark rate, and the market tends to enjoy a year-end rally during presidential election years," NDR strategist Ed Clissold said.<h3 id="15c802f5-b891-4b0c-9b77-77a99c7c3ddd">Goldman Sachs: S&amp;P 500 price target of 5,600</h3>Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-earnings-growth-2025-investing-strategy-goldman-sachs-2024-7#:~:text=Goldman%20Sachs%20is%20also%20increasingly,in%20the%20next%20six%20months.">boosted his S&amp;P 500 price target to 5,600 from 5,200 last month.</a> The bank had originally expected the index to end the year at 5,100.Though Kostin boosted his price target increases, he warned that heavy concentration in mega-cap tech companies and a likely slowdown in earnings growth during the second half of the year could lead to flat returns for the next six months."Our 2024 and 2025 earnings estimates remain unchanged but stellar earnings growth by five mega-cap tech stocks have offset the typical pattern of negative revisions to consensus EPS estimates," Kostin said.<h3 id="a4f2f3ce-9f78-4828-b829-598842d97bda">UBS: S&amp;P 500 price target of 5,600</h3>UBS raised its S&amp;P 500 price target to 5,600 from 5,400 in May, and that's after the bank raised its price target in February.The bullishness was driven by no signs of a recession in the economy and solid GDP growth forecasts."Since then, consensus 2024 GDP forecasts have increased from 1.6% to 2.4%," analysts led by Jonathan Golub wrote. "At the same time, recession/tail risks have declined on a number of key metrics including economist surveys and the Chicago Fed's Financial Conditions Index."UBS also hiked its earnings-per-share forecasts to $245 from $240 this year and raised 2025 estimates to $260 from $255.According to data from Bloomberg, the average S&amp;P 500 earnings per share target for 2024 is $242.

Wall Street is bullish on stocks for the 2nd half of the year. Here are each firm's exact forecasts.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks jumped to record highs ahead of key economic data releases this week.</li><li>Investors are awaiting the June CPI and PPI reports to gauge inflation trends and the Fed's response.</li></ul>US stocks jumped to record highs on Monday ahead of key economic data scheduled for this week.Investors will be keenly focused on the June consumer price index report on Thursday, with Core CPI expected to rise 3.1% year-over-year, compared to May's CPI report of 3.3%.More inflation data will be released on Friday with the release of the June PPI report, which is expected to rise 0.1% on a month-over-month basis.The new inflation data will help inform investors and the Federal Reserve about the path of interest rates for the rest of this year. Current market forecasts suggest the Fed's September FOMC meeting will bring the first rate cut.The week is also filled with Fed speakers, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell set to testify to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, along with several speeches from Fed Governors.Finally, earnings season kicks off this week, with top US banks JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup set to release their second-quarter results before the market opens on Friday.With the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes trading at record highs, technical analyst Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies believes the gains can continue."The SPX completed a breakout from a flag pattern on Friday as positive short-term momentum lifted it out of its consolidation phase. The breakout allows for a measured move projection of about 5755 for this summer, suggesting the market may continue to shrug off seasonal 'doldrums," Stockton said in a Monday note to clients.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,577.71, up 0.19%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,599.85, up 0.57% (+223.98 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,357.25, up 0.02%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hindenburg-research-adani-group-explained-stock-crash-short-seller-profits-2024-7">A short-seller who helped wipe out $153 billion in market value from Adani Group made just $4 million from the bearish trade.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/jamaica-hurricane-beryl-catastrophe-bonds-climate-disaster-natural-damage-investing-2024-7">Jamaica can't tap into catastrophe-bond funds despite Hurricane Beryl's devastation because of air pressure levels.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-prediction-2025-decline-fed-fails-avoid-recession-2024-7">BCA Research expects the stock market to crash 32% in 2025 as the Federal Reserve fails to prevent a recession.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dropped 0.81% to $82.49 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.60% to $86.02 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> edged lower by 0.68% to $2,381.30 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.29%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> jumped 2.36% to $57,187.</li></ul>

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