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The central government has reduced <keyword id="20442280" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="windfall-tax" source="keywords">windfall tax</keyword> on crude petroleum, according to a government notification. The special additional <keyword id="20253895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="excise-duty" source="keywords">excise duty</keyword> (<keyword id="20211971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="saed" source="keywords">SAED</keyword>) on crude petroleum has been slashed from Rs 9,600 per tonne to Rs 8,400 per tonne. The new <keyword id="20452955" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-rates" source="keywords">tax rates</keyword> will come into immediate effect. The taxes on <keyword id="6356109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="diesel" source="Orion">diesel</keyword>, petrol and aviation turbine fuel will continue to remain nil. The government had on April 16 raised the windfall tax on <keyword id="20201860" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="petroleum-crude" source="keywords">petroleum crude</keyword> to Rs 9,600 per cent tonne from Rs 6,800. A tax levied on an unforeseen or unexpectedly large profit is called a windfall tax. Meanwhile, bringing a measure of respite to the people, <keyword id="19979741" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-marketing-companies" source="keywords">oil marketing companies</keyword> have slashed the prices of <keyword id="21488887" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="commercial-LPG-gas-cylinders" source="keywords">commercial LPG gas cylinders</keyword> by Rs 19 per unit with immediate effect. The retail sales price of a 19 kg commercial LPG cylinder would be now Rs 1745.50 in Delhi, sources said. Last month, the price was cut by Rs 30.50 for a 19-kg commercial cylinder at Rs 1764.50. While the precise reasons behind the <keyword id="21488889" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="price-decrease" source="keywords">price decrease</keyword> remain undisclosed, various factors, such as changes in <keyword id="21488888" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="international-oil-prices" source="keywords">international oil prices</keyword>, shifts in taxation policies, and supply-demand dynamics, likely contribute to such adjustments. Revisions for both commercial and domestic LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) cylinders typically occur on the first day of each month. (ANI)

India slashes windfall tax on crude petroleum

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US economy looks strong, judging by GDP growth, profits, productivity, and the labor market.</li><li>JPMorgan Asset Management is upbeat heading into 2025, but a major risk looms.</li></ul>It looks like the most obvious threats to the economy have been neutralized for now, but a veteran strategy chief fears that an under-the-radar risk poses a threat to the global expansion.This economic backdrop bears little resemblance to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-stagflation-disaster-high-prices-inflation-high-unemployment-2022-3">so-called stagflationary environment</a> of 2022, a year where <a target="_blank" href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/">US GDP shrank in the first two quarters</a> as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-price-growth-june-2022-7">inflation hit multi-decade highs</a>.Fast forward to late 2024, and GDP has grown by at least 3% for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product">three of the last four quarters</a> and is expected to do so again in the third quarter, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. The firm estimates that consumer spending, which <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA">accounts for about two thirds of US GDP</a>, also likely accelerated to 3.5% on an inflation-adjusted basis last quarter, up from 2.8% in Q2.Meanwhile, price growth is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">remarkably close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target</a>, which allowed the US central bank to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">start the interest rate easing cycle with a bang</a> in mid-September.Perhaps most encouraging is that the labor market appears to be healthy. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">Job additions easily exceeded estimates</a> in September, and the unemployment rate is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf">in check at 4.1%</a>.Corporate earnings growth, productivity growth, and business fixed investment all seem to be headed in the right direction as well. The same is true of wage growth, which JPMAM found has topped inflation for the last 17 months, underpinning solid consumer spending in the process.These signals have given David Kelly, JPMAM's chief global market strategist, great confidence.The economic outlook "seems remarkably benign with solid economic growth, low unemployment, resilient profits, a slow drift down in inflation, and gradual easing from the Federal Reserve," Kelly said in written commentary on October 28. The market veteran added that there aren't "signs of an imminent change in the economy's path."<h2 id="59ff7859-06ea-46e1-a918-af568c5cb476">A 'tariff'ying risk</h2>That seemingly picturesque backdrop helps explain why the S&amp;P 500 has risen 22% this year and is near record highs. But Kelly believes investors can't let their guards down."Investing has always been as much about risk as about return, and the key to long-term success is being prepared for both," Kelly said in his commentary.Kelly said to be wary of elevated stock valuations — which he and his colleagues at JPMAM <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-real-estate-stocks-bonds-portfolio-jpmorgan-asset-management-2024-10">said last week</a> could put a lid on future returns — and the market's heavy tilt toward mega-cap growth companies, even though <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-stocks-to-buy-strong-growth-market-outlook-garp-bmo-2024-10">that has been changing</a> in recent months.However, neither of those overhangs is more serious than the potential fallout from a domestic or international political shock. When asked last week about the biggest risk to his long-term outlook, Kelly quickly arrived at an answer: a fierce global trade war marked by escalating tariffs."No matter which set of economists you have sitting here, every one of 'em will tell you that tariffs are not a good idea," Kelly said at JPMAM's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-real-estate-stocks-bonds-portfolio-jpmorgan-asset-management-2024-10">annual long-term capital market assumptions conference</a> on October 21. "You can use it as a threat, though it's kind of like a nuclear threat — the whole point is, if you actually end up using it, you kind of screwed up somewhere."Economists usually disapprove of tariffs, which are taxes on foreign imports, in most cases. Tariffs promise to generate revenue for the home country while aiding domestic industries, but they can drive up consumer prices and prompt counter-tariffs that lead to trade wars.In a worst-case scenario, tariffs would result in higher prices and lower growth due to the waste and inefficiency that they create while hurting importers and exporters in both countries."A trade war could cause us to push up our inflation forecast and push out our growth forecast at the same time," Kelly said at the conference.While Democrats and Republican presidents have leaned on tariffs in the past, it's former President Donald Trump who's <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/business/4945577-trump-tariffs-economy-trade/">promising to implement substantial tariffs</a> in this election cycle.While some say the threat of aggressive tariffs would help the US secure better trade terms, others are skeptical — if not outright scared.Such tariffs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-economy-inflation-stock-market-volatility-risk-orlik-2024-10">would cause "seismic shocks to the US economy,"</a> Tom Orlik, the chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, said earlier this month. Charles Schwab global investment strategy chief Jeffrey Kleintop <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-stock-market-international-investing-strategy-charles-schwab-2024-6">cited tariffs as a top risk</a> back in June. The nonpartisan Peterson Institute <a target="_blank" href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/trumps-proposed-blanket-tariffs-would-risk-global-trade-war">spoke out against Trump's tariff proposals</a>, as did the right-leaning <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariffs-economy-2024-election-kamala-harris-robert-lighthizer-29c07e94">Wall Street Journal editorial board</a>.Although investors may want to take the possibility of tariffs more seriously, Kelly noted that even if they're a major headache, stocks and the economy should still be fine in the long term."I could have said 'pandemic' five years ago, if I'd been incredibly prescient," Kelly said at the conference. "But oddly enough, the global economy bounced back anyway. And so it wouldn't actually have been a very good thing to worry about."

The economy seems to be firing on all cylinders — but a veteran JPMorgan strategy chief says one underappreciated risk could cause a serious global slowdown

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<ul><li>The US economy is still firing on all cylinders despite slowing GDP growth in the first quarter.</li><li>Carson Group strategist Sonu Varghese highlighted five economic indicators that show the strength.</li><li>"The workhorse of the US economy remains the consumer, and there's really not much sign of a slowdown," Varghese said.</li></ul>The US economy is firing on all cylinders despite <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-economy-growth-2024-4">a slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth,</a> according to Carson Group global macro strategist Sonu Varghese.Varghese highlighted five economic indicators that show continued underlying strength in the US economy, giving him little reason for concern as the labor market continues to power higher."The workhorse of the US economy remains the consumer, and there's really not much sign of a slowdown as far as household spending is concerned," Varghese said in a note last week. "In fact, services spending, which makes up 45% of the economy rose at an annualized pace of 4%."That 4% growth rate is more than double the 1.8% growth trend seen from 2010 through 2019, according to Varghese, and it represents the fastest pace of growth since the third-quarter of 2021. "The current strength of consumption is directly related to the strength of American household finances," Varghese said.These are the five indicators that give Varghese confidence that the US consumer, and therefore the US economy, remains on solid footing.<h3>1. Income growth is outpacing inflation</h3>Despite elevated inflation, wage growth continues to outpace inflation growth, and that's ultimately a boon for consumers.Disposable incomes grew at an annualized pace of 4.8% in the first-quarter, and employee compensation soared 7.8%. Meanwhile, PCE inflation rose 4.4%."That's the simplest explanation for why consumption continues to run strong," Varghese said.<div type="image" title="Income versus inflation" height="803" width="626" msid="109792200" hostid="261" sizebytes="20070"></div><h3>2. Average hourly earnings are also outpacing inflation</h3>It's not only high-income earners that are seeing their wages outpace inflation. The average every-day worker is also seeing their income grow faster than the pace of inflation."Inflation-adjusted hourly wages are growing even when you look at the average worker, and separate non-managers from managers," Varghese explained.That's important because non-managers tend to spend a greater portion of their incomes from wages, so it's important that they see their wage growth outpace inflation. <div type="image" title="hourly earnings growth outpaces inflation" height="752" width="647" msid="109792202" hostid="261" sizebytes="27276"></div><h3>3. Consumer balance sheets are strong</h3>A continued rise in the stock market and housing prices means Americans are more wealthy today than they have ever been.US consumers held a collective $176.7 trillion in assets as of December 31, and their liabilities have not risen as quickly as their assets have.That means consumers have ample room to spend money and save less, which makes it no surprise that the savings rate of US consumers has steadily declined over the past few years to 4.2% today from 7.4% in 2019."This is not surprising considering net worth is higher. Why save more if you're worth more?" Varghese said. <div type="image" title="Consumer balance sheet" height="696" width="653" msid="109792204" hostid="261" sizebytes="27840"></div><h3>4. Consumer's have capacity to borrow more</h3>Across all levels of the income spectrum, consumers owe less in debt relative to their income than they have in decades.The household debt service ratio, which measures debt payments as a percentage of disposable income, stood at 9.8% in the fourth-quarter of 2024. That's significantly below the 13.3% peak hit in 2007 and the historical average of 11.2%, and it suggests that consumers have ample flexibility to borrow more money and consumer if they have to. "Across all income groups, liabilities as a percent of assets are well below what we've seen historically. In short, households are significantly less levered than in the past," Varghese said.<div type="image" title="Debt service ratio" height="837" width="648" msid="109792206" hostid="261" sizebytes="28142"></div><h3>5. The jobs market is still resilient</h3>"The labor market is the entire ballgame as far as the consumer is concerned. If the labor market deteriorates, incomes fall, consumption falls, and the economy is in trouble," Varghese said.And so far, there are no signs of that happening. "We have the opposite now," Varghese highlighted.The unemployment rate has stayed below 4% for 26 consecutive months, representing the longest streak since the late 1960s. Meanwhile, there is still more than one job opening for every unemployed worker, and weekly jobless claims continue to hover near historically low levels. "Ultimately, here's what's important to keep in mind: consumption makes up 70% of the US economy, and right now consumption is running strong thanks to strong labor markets, which are pushing incomes higher to above the pace of inflation, and higher net worth, which means households can spend more," Varghese concluded.

5 indicators that show the US economy is still firing on all cylinders despite slowing GDP

After reporting <keyword id="21767878" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="record-profits" source="keywords">record profits</keyword>, state-owned <keyword id="20459282" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="fuel-retailers" source="keywords">fuel retailers</keyword> <keyword id="19908045" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-Oil-Corporation" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Indian Oil Corporation" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Indian Oil Corporation">Indian Oil Corporation</keyword> (<keyword id="6354733" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IOC" source="Orion">IOC</keyword>), <keyword id="19908646" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BPCL" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="BPCL" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="BPCL">BPCL</keyword> and <keyword id="20052221" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HPCL" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HPCL" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="HPCL">HPCL</keyword> posted up to 90 per cent slump in their June quarter earnings as margins fell and they booked under-recovery on the sale of domestic cooking gas LPG at government-controlled rates. IOC, the nation's largest oil firm, reported 81 per cent drop in standalone net profit in April-June - the first quarter of current 2024-25 fiscal year - to Rs 2,643.18 crore as opposed to a profit of Rs 13,750.44 crore a year back, according to a company filing. Net profit also declined sequentially, when compared to an earning of Rs 11,570.82 crore in March quarter. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) posted 90 per cent drop in profit to Rs 633.94 crore as compared to an earning of Rs 6,765.50 crore in April-June 2023 and Rs 2,709.31 crore in the preceding March quarter. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) net profit dropped to Rs 2,841.55 crore in April-June from Rs 10,644.30 crore a year back and Rs 4,789.57 crore in January-March, its filing showed. The three fuel retailers made extraordinary gains from holding petrol and diesel prices despite a drop in cost. The price freeze was justified in the name of recovering losses they had suffered in the previous year when they did not raise retail prices despite a surge in cost. The gains arising from the price freeze were eroded with petrol and diesel prices being cut by Rs 2 per litre each just before general elections and a fall in refining margins. Also, the three had uncompensated <keyword id="20866844" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="LPG-subsidy" source="keywords">LPG subsidy</keyword> - IOC booking under-recovery of Rs 5,156.23 crore in April-June, BPCL Rs 2,015.10 crore and HPCL Rs 2,443.71 crore, according to the filings. As per an order of the oil ministry, when market determined price (MDP) of LPG cylinders is less than its effective cost to customer (ECC), oil marketing companies (OMCs) have to retain the difference in a separate buffer account for future adjustment. However, as on June 30, 2024, the three firms had a net negative buffer as the retail selling price was less than MDP. The three retailers IOC, BPCL and HPCL had reported record profits totalling about Rs 81,000 crore in FY24 (2023-24), which was far more than their annual earnings of Rs 39,356 crore in pre-oil crisis years. This is because they resisted calls to revert to daily price revision and pass on softening in rates to consumers on grounds that prices continue to be extremely volatile - rising on one day and falling on the other - and that they needed to recoup losses incurred in the year, when they kept rates lower than cost. IOC in 2023-24 posted a standalone net profit of Rs 39,618.84 crore compared to Rs 8,241.82 crore in 2022-23. While the company could argue that FY23 was impacted by the <keyword id="21626914" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-crisis" source="keywords">oil crisis</keyword>, the FY24 earnings are higher than even the pre-crisis years - Rs 24,184 crore net profit in 2021-22 and Rs 21,836 crore in 2020-21. BPCL posted a net profit of Rs 26,673.50 crore in FY24, higher than Rs 1,870.10 crore earnings in 2022-23 and Rs 8,788.73 crore in FY22. HPCL's 2023-24 profit of Rs 14,693.83 crore is compared with a Rs 8,974.03 crore loss in FY23 and a profit of Rs 6,382.63 crore in 2021-22, according to the filings. The losses in FY23 had led to the finance minister announcing Rs 30,000 crore equity infusion in the three firms. Mid-way through the year, that support was halved to Rs 15,000 crore. The support was to happen by way of equity infusion via a rights issue. But after the record profits of 2023-24, the equity infusion plan has now been scrapped. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had on February 1 last year, while presenting the annual Budget for the 2023-24 fiscal (April 2023 to March 2024), announced an equity infusion of Rs 30,000 crore in IOC, BPCL and HPCL to support the three state-owned firm's energy transition plans. In the interim budget that the finance minister presented in February this year ahead of the general elections, the capital support to the three oil companies was halved to Rs 15,000 crore. In the full budget for 2024-25, both plans have been scrapped. While other state-owned oil companies like Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and GAIL (India) Ltd too have lined up billions of dollars of investment to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, the equity support was limited to the three fuel retailers, which had suffered huge losses in 2022 when they held retail petrol, diesel and cooking gas (LPG) prices despite a spike in raw material (crude oil) prices, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The board of IOC and BPCL had last year approved rights issues to raise to Rs 22,000 crore and Rs 18,000 crore, respectively. The government was to participate in the rights issue. The three companies, which control roughly 90 per cent of India's fuel market, 'voluntarily' have not changed petrol, diesel and cooking gas (LPG) prices, resulting in losses when input costs were higher and profits when raw material prices were lower. They posted a combined net loss of Rs 21,201.18 crore during April-September 2022 despite accounting for Rs 22,000 crore announced but not paid LPG subsidy for the previous two years. Subsequent softening of international prices and government giving out LPG subsidies helped IOC and BPCL post annualised profit for 2022-23, but HPCL was in the red. In FY24, things changed dramatically, and the three firms posted record earnings.

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India slashes windfall tax on crude petroleum

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After record profits, state-owned fuel retailers Indian Oil, BPCL and HPCL see profit slump in Q1

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