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<ul><li>India’s car makers as well as two wheeler companies, from Hero Moto to GM, are in a fix as local lockdowns are forcing plant shutdowns.</li><li>The surge in COVID-19 cases has also dented consumer demand. People are even cancelling earlier orders.</li><li>A survey of dealers, including the ones of Maruti Suzuki, shows that sales in April may be down anywhere between 30% to 70% across major states. </li><li>This also poses yet another threat to millions of people employed in the sector and the slump could cascade into consumer products as well.</li></ul>Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked state governments in India to implement full lockdown only as a last resort. So far, in the face of the second wave of COVID-19 infections, complete statewide or national lockdowns have not been announced but the <keyword id="20077" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="automobile-industry">automobile industry</keyword> in India ⁠— the fourth largest in the world⁠— has a story of its own. A drastic, and sustained, rise in COVID-19 cases across the country have caused localised lockdowns, forcing auto makers and dealers to temporarily shut down their facilities. Not only have new orders fallen, people are even cancelling the bookings made earlier. In states like Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, dealers are reporting 40% to 60% fall in sales compared to the pre-COVID data i.e. year ending March 2019, according to Motilal Oswal which surveyed dealers across major states. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">State </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Estimated fall in April 2021 sales (vs FY19) </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">40% to 60% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">30% to 40% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Gujarat </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">30% to 70% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Rajasthan </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">30% to 50% </td></tr></tbody></table>Source: Motilal Oswal report dated April 17, 2021. And, so production also has come to standstill... Hero MotoCorp, one of the leading two-wheeler manufacturers, has <a href="https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/two-wheelers/motorcycles/covid-19-fear-hero-motocorp-halts-production-plants-worldwide-till-31st-march/74754257">announced</a> a nationwide shutdown of its plants for four days between April 22 and May 1. The maker of the popular Splendor bike said that despite its 4-day shutdown and production halt, it will not have an impact on its ability to meet demand, according to the company’s exchange filing. General Motors, the US-based car maker, fired all its 1,419 employees in its Talegaon plant in Pune. The company’s director of communications, George Svigos, told <a href="https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/passenger-vehicle/cars/gm-india-to-lay-off-1419-workmen-at-talegaon-plant-invokes-sec-25-of-the-industrial-dispute-act/82107319">Economic Times</a> that no vehicles were manufactured in the last four months. If this seems like déjà vu of the story that unfolded in the first half of 2020 during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. From <a href="https://www.carandbike.com/topic/maruti-suzuki" data-type="tilCustomLink">Maruti Suzuki</a> to <a href="https://www.carandbike.com/topic/hero" data-type="tilCustomLink">Hero MotoCorp</a>, Indian companies are already facing the heat. All the top ten automobile companies in India have seen a decline in their share prices in April, with some of them registering a double-digit decline. All automobile makers are facing the heat <div type="image" title="Auto stocks performance in April 2021" msid="82195352" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Share price of the top 10 automobile companies in India.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> The negative consumer sentiment and the possibility of another lockdown has had an impact on auto ancillary makers as well. However, some of them have managed to weather the storm for now. <div type="image" title="Ancillary auto stocks performance in April 2021" msid="82195370" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Ancillary auto companies share price.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> This will have collateral damage too “If the markets are shut, then demand will fall. Any prolonged shutdown will mean demand will go down. Production cannot continue if sales stop. You can’t run factories if dealerships are shut. It doesn’t make sense,” RC Bhargava, Chairman, Maruti Suzuki (India’s largest car maker) told <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/lockdowns-not-a-solution-will-hit-economy-force-workers-to-leave-maruti/articleshow/82172302.cms">TOI</a>. The impact of lockdowns and curfews will have a spillover effect on auto dealers as well. John K Paul, managing director of Popular Vehicles, one of Kerala’s largest Maruti Suzuki dealers, told <a href="https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/passenger-vehicle/cars/lockdown-in-6-states-to-impact-31-of-indias-car-market/82154934">ET Auto</a> that he expects retail sales for the last year to be down 45%-50%. The slump in auto sales last year led to large scale layoffs in the auto sector and the same threat looms large again. The future’s looking bleak One could take heart from the swift recovery in car sales after last year’s lockdown but that miracle may not repeat itself this time. Optimism is scarce and people have lesser savings than they did last year. So, the pent-up demand may be missing this time around, according to analysts. Making matters worse, both two wheeler makers and car makers have had to increase prices due to the shift to BS-6 models (with less emissions) as well as a rise in raw material prices. The rise in price may be a deterrent for those on the fence about buying a new vehicle. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Models </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">BS6 models Price hike (compared to April 2020) </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;"><a href="https://www.carandbike.com/tvs-bikes/apache-rtr-160" data-type="tilCustomLink">TVS Apache RTR 160 Rear Drum</a> </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+14.7% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Hero Moto: Deluxe SS </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+8.3% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;"><a href="https://www.carandbike.com/bajaj-bikes/pulsar-150" data-type="tilCustomLink">Bajaj Pulsar 150 ABS</a> </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+7.2% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Royal Enfield Classic 350 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+6.5% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Honda Activa 5G DLX </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+6.4% </td></tr></tbody></table>Source: Motilal Oswal The big companies may even recover later. Another slump in the sector may be fatal for many small businesses that depend on the big industry for their survival. Millions of people who work in the sector, directly or indirectly, are likely to save more expecting hard times ahead. That is if they still manage to keep their jobs. The reduced consumption is likely to take a further toll on the economy. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/elon-musk-tesla-is-reportedly-looking-for-a-showroom-space-in-india-picks-an-exec-to-lobby-for-them/articleshow/81969189.cms">Elon Musk's Tesla reportedly shortlists New Delhi, Mumbai and Bengaluru to open its first showrooms in India</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/elon-musk-announced-now-you-can-buy-tesla-cars-with-bitcoin/articleshow/81667459.cms">You can now buy a Tesla with Bitcoin, tweets Elon Musk</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/nissan-india-to-increase-prices-of-all-models-for-nissan-and-datsun-from-april-1/articleshow/81647750.cms">Nissan India to increase prices of all models for Nissan and Datsun from April 1</a>

There is a virtual lockdown in the world’s fourth largest automobile market

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Tuesday, said that a lockdown in states should be the last resort. Multiple states in India have announced night curfews and weekend lockdowns in the past few weeks. Delhi has been put under a full lockdown till April 26. But lockdowns might not be enough. Here is why according to Himanshu Sikka of Delhi-based think tank IPE Global. The government has started off with weekend lockdowns and curfews but that may not be enough to reign in this wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some states, like <keyword id="13126" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Maharashtra">Maharashtra</keyword>, have started taking the hard calls while others wait and watch with a ‘band-aid approach’ where surgeries are required — such as going for night or weekend curfews. The big question that is looming in everyone's mind is how long a lockdown will be required to come out of the current wave. Migrants in Delhi and Maharashtra, who had come back to the city after the first lockdown, have started to go back home in fear of another lockdown being on the cards. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Is India heading for a loss at the cusp of victory?" comment="subhead" text="Is India heading for a loss at the cusp of victory?">Is India heading for a loss at the cusp of victory?</cmsannotation> The official mortalities, though lower in percentage terms, have possibly gone under reported. There is not enough data available or knowledge to create prediction models, and each new day comes with fresh discoveries on how the virus may or may not be behaving. <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Image"><cdata><![CDATA[<div class="flourish-embed flourish-chart" data-src="visualisation/5923063"></div>]]></cdata></div> Such unpredictable behaviour makes it difficult to assess the damage and define what may be required to regain ground. The biggest problem with this wave has been convincing the public to continue the COVID-appropriate behaviour. Then whether it’s pandemic fatigue or economic compulsions, or simple reaction to seeing their leadership flouting norms in election rallies or festive gatherings, we see the nation grabbing defeat from the hands of victory — something this cricket-loving nation had come out of in the past few years. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Even a complete lockdown won’t be enough without the infrastructure to back it up" comment="subhead" text="Even a complete lockdown won’t be enough without the infrastructure to back it up">Even a complete lockdown won’t be enough without the infrastructure to back it up</cmsannotation> Given the country's situation, major hotbeds of the pandemic will need to take hard decisions and possibly national leadership will once again need to enforce things where there is inaction. Central directives may be required soon in States like Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, etc. States like Maharashtra and Delhi would also require longer lockdowns to break the chain. But that, alone, won’t be enough. The lockdowns will need to ensure the affected get the best treatment possible to contain mortalities. The governments will need to focus on infrastructure improvement, for now, and later, for critical things like testing, oxygen supply, essential drugs and ICU beds, which have all crumbled under pressure this time. All this would require much longer than a couple of weeks to bring down the active cases from the current two million-plus to where they stood 60 days back at around 135,000. Second, the centre and states will collectively need to focus on enhancing capacities for the vaccination supply chain as it opens for all adults from May 1. A successful campaign will also require steps to remove hesitations around inoculation through large-scale strategic behavioral change in communication. Such efforts in many pockets will need to be door-to-door, as was the case during the Polio vaccination. Above all, the lockdowns will need to be used to enhance our surveillance and data analytics capacity, allowing us to understand the key indicators better, have strong prediction models ready and be prepared for the next wave.

OPINION: Why weekend lockdowns and night curfews aren't the only solution to India's surging cases of COVID-19

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There is a virtual lockdown in the world’s fourth largest automobile market

Rounak Jain

OPINION: Why weekend lockdowns and night curfews aren't the only solution to India's surging cases of COVID-19

Himanshu Sikka

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