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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia passed a bill allowing crypto trade payments and is aiming to roll out the digital ruble next July.</li><li>Moscow's tilt to crypto reverses its previous anti-crypto stance.</li></ul>Russia is stepping up sanctions-evading measures to keep its international trade flowing. The country is passing new laws regulating cryptocurrency and a plan for the digital ruble.On Tuesday, Russia's State Duma — the lower house of Russia's federal assembly — passed a bill that would let businesses use cryptocurrencies in international trade, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/russia-launch-international-payments-crypto-before-end-2024-2024-07-30/">Reuters</a> reported.Under this new law, Russia's central bank will create a new "experimental" payments platform. Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said the first transactions are expected by the end of this year, per Reuters.Nabiullina also said on Tuesday that the Russian central bank plans a mass introduction of the digital ruble in July next year, per <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://tass.com/economy/1823089">TASS.</a>Digital currencies, like the digital ruble, are similar to cryptocurrencies but are <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/11/cbdcs-how-different-cryptocurrency-stablecoin/">issued and backed by central banks.</a><h2 id="04f69842-16d5-468a-85c4-9bbe54193e49">Some Russian businesses are already using crypto</h2>In addition, Russia passed new regulations legalizing crypto mining on Tuesday.An existing ban on crypto payments in Russia remains, but Moscow's greenlighting crypto for international trade marks a significant shift.In January 2022 — before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russian-cbank-proposes-banning-cryptocurrencies-crypto-mining-2022-01-20/">Russia's central bank</a> proposed a ban on the use and mining of cryptocurrencies within the country, citing risks to financial stability and monetary policy.However, the heavily sanctioned country is facing so many issues with international payments that it has been forced to shift its position.Some Russian businesses are already using cryptocurrencies to trade with settlements done via Hong Kong, but through central Asian intermediaries, <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-25/russian-companies-face-mounting-payment-issues-as-sanctions-bite">Bloomberg</a> reported last week.<a target="_blank" class="" href="http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74566">Russian President Vladimir Putin</a> himself said earlier this month that Russia had to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://tass.com/economy/1818055">"seize the moment"</a> to create a legal framework for digital assets, as they are being increasingly used to settle international payments.Russia's tilt toward crypto isn't unexpected. Analysts have been speculating about how <a target="_blank" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/cryptocurrencies-and-us-sanctions-evasion-implications-russia">Russia would eventually move</a> toward using crypto and digital assets following sweeping sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine.<h2 id="0eca508c-15cf-41aa-b85a-a557ee507d8d">Increasingly tight Western sanctions hit Russia's international trade</h2>Until recently, Moscow hasn't really had to look into digital currencies that intently — since Russian companies have managed to keep on doing business using non-US dollar currencies, such as the Chinese yuan, or via smaller banks.But Russia's international trade is getting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-yuan-payments-delay-months-bounce-back-sanctions-2024-7">ever more difficult.</a>The troubles started in December when the US authorized <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-takes-aim-financial-institutions-with-new-russia-sanctions-authority-2023-12-22/">secondary sanctions</a> targeting financial institutions that help Russia skirt sanctions.This prompted <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-financial-system-us-sanctions-oil-trade-foreign-banks-2024-3">global banks</a> from <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-biggest-banks-stop-russia-payments-icbc-ccb-boc-2024-2">China </a>to the UAE, Turkey, and Austria to reduce transactions — even in non-US dollars — with Russia to avoid getting in the crosshairs."This episode demonstrates the global power of the US Treasury, causing banks from Turkey to India and China to pause the processing of payments invoiced by or to Russian counterparties," wrote Christopher Granville, the managing director of global political research at GlobalData TS Lombard, in a May note about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-brics-usd-dollar-central-banks-digital-currency-payments-mbridge-2024-5">digital currencies and dedollarization.</a>"In other words, simply settling commercial invoices in national currencies rather than US dollars turns out to be an insufficient counter to US sanctions," Granville added.The payment issues were exacerbated last month when the US Treasury rolled out a new package of <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-sanctions-us-china-ukraine-war-economy-janet-yellen-treasury-2024-6?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*1nuxsvd*_ga*MTM0MjM1NDU5My4xNjg1MTUzMTcw*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyMDE0NzM3MS45MzUuMS4xNzIwMTQ5OTU5LjYwLjAuMA..">expansive US sanctions</a> against Russia, forcing the Moscow Exchange — Russia's key bourse — to halt <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-dollar-ruble-exchange-us-sanctions-currency-yuan-ukraine-war-2024-6">dollar and euro trade.</a><h2 id="b33701e6-83ac-4290-b6c2-ada7fbc1bf3a">Russia could be eying a digital-currency-based settlement system</h2>It isn't clear how Russia's crypto and digital currency regimes will shape up.Implementation may be easier said than done.Even China, which has one of the world's most advanced <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3228094/chinas-digital-currency-bank-china-helps-mainland-tourists-spend-e-cny-hong-kong-select-retailers">digital currencies,</a> relies on a "two-tier" system involving banks as wallet-holding agents. Granville wrote in May that that setup avoided excessively disrupting the operations of banks, which could threaten broader financial stability.

Sanctions-hit Russia is rushing to set up payment systems, including crypto, to make trading easier

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks resumed their rally on Wednesday as investors took in the latest Fed comments.</li><li>Fed officials pointed to falling inflation and warned of the risks of too-restrictive interest rates.</li></ul>US stocks moved higher on Wednesday, resuming their November rally as traders sifted through the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials and parsed new economic data.Major indexes rose in early-morning trading as bond yields eased, with the on the 10-year US Treasury slipping six basis-points to about 4.276%.Investors are digesting the latest comments from Fed officials, who suggested interest rate hikes are probably done, and cuts could be a near-future reality for markets. Central bankers have "no reason" to keep interest rates high if inflation continues to fall, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee added that the Fed risked keeping interest rates restrictive for too long, which experts say could push the economy into a recession. "Anybody who cooks a turkey knows that you got to pull it out of the oven before it's to the point where you want it to be, because it's going to have residual heat," Goolsbee said. Investors are pricing in a 46% chance the Fed could trim interest rates by March of next year, up from 14% chance in late October, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Consumers have also turned more positive on the state of the economy, with the Consumer Confidence Index edging higher to 102 in November, up from the revised reading of 99 in October.GDP also saw a small upwards revision, with the economy growing at an estimated 5.2% pace last quarter, up from the originally estimated 4.9%, the Commerce Department said.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. ET open on Wednesday:<ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 4,582.76, up 0.61% </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 35,483.00, up 0.17% (+61.78 points)</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq Composite</a>: 14,409.43, up 0.89% </li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-ackman-us-economy-hard-landing-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2023-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bill Ackman says the US economy faces a real risk of a 'hard landing' if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates soon.</a></li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-2024-sp-500-record-bank-of-america-2023-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The S&amp;P 500 will roar to a new record high next year, Bank of America says.</a></li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-today-cryptocurrency-fed-rate-cuts-policy-outlook-markets-2023-11">Bitcoin hit it's highest price in 18 months</a>, pushing above $38,000. </li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-us-stock-market-outlook-foreign-investment-taiwan-inflation-2023-11?miRedirects=1">China's weak economy may be good news for US stocks</a>. Here's why. </li></ul>In commodities, bonds and crypto:<ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> oil rose 1.14% to $77.28 per barrel. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, oil's international benchmark, inched higher 0.99% to $82.28.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> slipped 0.09% to $2,039.76 per ounce.</li><li>The yield on the 10-year Treasury slid six basis-points to about 4.276%.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> climbed 1.76% to $38,049.</li></ul>

US stocks rise to resume rally as investors assess Fed comments and parse economic data

Happy Friday team. I'm Phil Rosen, reporting from New York. The Federal Reserve's Wednesday rate hike was just the beginning of the world's fight against inflation. A smattering of other central banks have followed suit, while some others took a different course. All these policy maneuvers, too, make for an increasingly uncertain market — unless you're an analyst at one top Wall Street firm that says, pretty soon, it might be prime time to buy into stocks for a rally. Let's break it down.If this was forwarded to you, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/10-things-opening-bell">sign up here</a>. Download Insider's app <a href="https://www.insider.com/app">here.</a><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-bottoming-data-dependent-fed-pause-inflation-2022-9"></a>1. The stock market is in a bottoming process, and that could mean <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-bottoming-data-dependent-fed-pause-inflation-2022-9">indexes rally</a> in early 2023 as the Fed readies a pivot, according to Stifel.The investment firm forecasted that the S&amp;P 500 will surge 17% by the first quarter of next year, as a Fed pause <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-bottoming-data-dependent-fed-pause-inflation-2022-9">gives markets a boost after a persistent sell-off</a>. Such a move by the central bank would be data-dependent, though, and Powell and co. would need to see real signs that their efforts are paying off. A persistent decline in inflation figures should be what they're looking for to show that it's time to <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-bottoming-data-dependent-fed-pause-inflation-2022-9">pause rate hikes</a>, the Stifel analysts noted. Stifel still <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-bottoming-data-dependent-fed-pause-inflation-2022-9">anticipates a recession</a> in the third quarter of next year — but that's not until after stocks make considerable gains. For now, pain fueled by central banks is likely to continue. The Fed's 75 basis-point rate hike on Wednesday was the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/fed-rate-hike-central-banks-interest-global-inflation-markets-recession-2022-9">first of many such moves this week</a> as the policymakers globally confront surging prices. Yesterday — which ING dubbed "<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/fed-rate-hike-central-banks-interest-global-inflation-markets-recession-2022-9">Super Thursday</a>" — nine other central banks adjusted key rates. The Bank of Japan, for example, kept its benchmark rate steady while <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-vs-yen-japan-intervention-inflation-rates-economy-2022-9">stepping in to stabilize the volatile yen in other ways</a>, but others like the Bank of England, Indonesia, and Norway all made <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/fed-rate-hike-central-banks-interest-global-inflation-markets-recession-2022-9">50-basis-point hikes</a>.Meanwhile, Switzerland upped the ante with a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/fed-rate-hike-central-banks-interest-global-inflation-markets-recession-2022-9">75-basis-point raise</a>, to bring its benchmark rate out of negative territory, while South Africa also hiked.Turkey, however, slashed its benchmark rate in a surprise move, given that domestic inflation in August clocked in above 80%. The lira <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/turkish-lira-vs-dollar-record-low-central-bank-rates-inflation-2022-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">fell to a record low</a> against the dollar. Returning to the US — the economy <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-risk-prediction-economy-fed-rate-hike-monetary-tightening-jpmorgan-2022-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">won't be able to handle the Fed's rate hikes</a>, according to top JPMorgan Asset Management strategist David Kelly.In his view, which <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mohamed-el-erian-stagflation-federal-reserve-inflation-rates-growth-unemployment-2022-9">Mohamed El-Erian has echoed</a>, the US is going to pay the price for policymakers' late response to climbing inflation. "This economy has <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-risk-prediction-economy-fed-rate-hike-monetary-tightening-jpmorgan-2022-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">one foot in the grave</a>," Kelly told CNBC Wednesday. "It really looks like it could get pushed into recession, and I just don't see the reason why. If inflation is coming down slowly, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-risk-prediction-economy-fed-rate-hike-monetary-tightening-jpmorgan-2022-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">let it come down slowly</a>."What comes next for the global economy, and what are the odds that central banks can stem global inflation? Email <a href="mailto:prosen@insider.com">prosen@insider.com</a> or tweet <a href="https://twitter.com/philrosenn">@philrosenn</a>. In other news: <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/putin-sanctions-europe-energy-crisis-gas-economy-recession-bill-browder-2022-9"></a><div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin" height="2028" width="4057" msid="94500985" hostid="261" sizebytes="405932"></div>2. US stocks tumbled early Friday as major indexes remain on track for a losing week. Dow futures shed 300 points in premarket trading, with investors staying cautious after Wednesday's hike. Meanwhile, the British pound dropped 1.6% to fall below $1.11 after the House of Commons unveiled a new economic plan. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-sp-500-extends-fed-spurred-selloff-2022-9">Here's your market briefing</a>. 3. On the docket: Carnival Corp, Smiths PLC, and Medmen Enterprises, all <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar">reporting.</a>4. Three investing experts explained how to adjust your portfolio to benefit from the Fed's rate hike and rising inflation. You can put your cash to work and get high yields that haven't been seen since 2005, according to one market pro: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-hike-how-to-invest-benefit-from-inflation-experts-2022-9">"Don't just buy the dip."</a>5. China shifted US bond holdings offshore as the Cayman Islands saw a $38.5 billion rise in China's US Treasury holdings. Bermuda saw a $7 billion increase, and it could signal that <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/china-us-debt-treasury-holdings-currency-sanctions-bermuda-cayman-islands-2022-9">China is protecting dollar-denominated assets from any future sanctions like the type that froze Russia's foreign currencies.</a>6. President Vladimir Putin's self-sanctioning of Russian energy supplies will be absorbed by Europe, but Moscow will never be able to replace those lost customers. That's according to Kremlin critic Bill Browder: <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/putin-sanctions-europe-energy-crisis-gas-economy-recession-bill-browder-2022-9">"Putin is an extremely vindictive man…this is the action of a man who is desperate."</a>7. Bitcoin could return to $68,000 within four years, and hit $500,000 in the next decade, famed crypto-bull Michael Saylor said. The MicroStrategy founder, who has effectively made the company's stock a leveraged bet on bitcoin, added that the next logical step for bitcoin is to replace gold as a "non-sovereign store of value asset." <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-microstrategy-michael-saylor-cryptocurrency-token-assets-marketwatch-ethereum-crypto-2022-9">His comments come as the world's biggest crypto is down more than 60% year-to-date.</a>8. A 35-year market veteran shared how he perfected a strategy to hedge against higher interest rates. Top 1% fund manager Harley Bassman shared how he constructed his winning portfolio and his outlook for rates — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-investing-strategy-stock-market-bassman-2022-9">and the lessons worth taking from a firm that's dominated 2022. </a>9. Look to these stocks to buy right now as earnings are on the decline and the higher interest rates jolt the economy. Tavis McCourt of Raymond James explained how to adjust your investment strategy as the market landscape changes and grows more uncertain. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picks-to-buy-economy-investing-recession-bear-market-crash-2022-9">See the list here.</a><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/lumber-prices-fall-mortgage-rates-solidify-above-six-percent-fed-2022-9"></a><div type="image" title="lumber price today" height="1056" width="1280" msid="94500987" hostid="261" sizebytes="27998"></div>10. Lumber prices dropped Thursday after mortgage rates solidified their move above 6%. Hawkish Fed rate hikes have weighed on the key commodity, and one firm told Insider the sector remains in a "state of overall malaise." <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/lumber-prices-fall-mortgage-rates-solidify-above-six-percent-fed-2022-9">Get the details here.</a>Keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out <a href="https://link.chtbl.com/therefresh">The Refresh from Insider</a>, a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. <a href="https://link.chtbl.com/therefresh">Listen here.</a>Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email <a href="mailto:prosen@insider.com">prosen@insider.com</a> or tweet <a href="https://twitter.com/philrosenn">@philrosenn</a>).Edited by Max Adams (<a href="https://twitter.com/maxradams">@maxradams</a>) in New York and Hallam Bullock (<a href="https://twitter.com/hallam_bullock">@hallam_bullock</a>) in London.

The Fed's rate hike was just the beginning as banks around the world adjust policy - but the uncertainty doesn't mean the market can't rally.

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Sanctions-hit Russia is rushing to set up payment systems, including crypto, to make trading easier

Huileng Tan

US stocks rise to resume rally as investors assess Fed comments and parse economic data

Jennifer Sor

The Fed's rate hike was just the beginning as banks around the world adjust policy - but the uncertainty doesn't mean the market can't rally.

Phil Rosen

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