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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's oil revenue has plummeted as global crude prices fall. </li><li>Oil sales dropped to $1.44 billion in the week ending September 8, per data cited by Bloomberg.</li></ul>Russia's oil business has taken a hit, with the nation's crude revenue dropping to its lowest levels in seven months, according to Argus Media data cited by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-10/russia-s-oil-exports-earn-the-least-since-february-as-prices-tumble">Bloomberg</a>.Moscow, which relies on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-west-secondary-sanctions-hitting-oil-exports-payments-revenue-2024-3">crude sales</a> for a big chunk of its revenue, saw the gross value of its oil exports drop to $1.44 billion in the week ending September 8, down from $1.52 billion netted the prior week, the outlet reported. That's the lowest amount Russia has netted from crude exports since January, despite the nation pumping out 40,000 more barrels of oil a day over the last week.The decline has largely been fueled by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-outlook-supply-demand-break-down-record-us-production-2024-9">plunging oil prices</a> as the demand outlook falters amid predictions of a recession in the US, while US producers continue to pump record amounts of crude. <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://oilprice.com">Urals crude</a>, Russia's flagship oil blend, has edged lower to $67.61 a barrel, down around 20% from its peak in the spring of this year.Russia is also selling less oil than it did in the prior years, thanks to weaker demand from its Asian customers and oil pipeline disruptions to Hungary in August. Russia's four-week average sales volume slumped to 3.13 million barrels a day as of September 8, down 30,000 barrels a day from the prior monthly average.Observed Russian crude shipments to Asia, in particular, dropped to an average 2.92 million barrels a day in the month over that time frame, around 10% below the average shipped earlier this year, the report said.Russia is set to make even steeper oil production cuts later in 2024, as part of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-crash-opec-saudi-arabia-us-production-brent-outlook-2023-12">OPEC's goal to boost crude prices</a>. The nation is planning to ramp up production cuts in October and November to make up for producing more than it promised earlier in the year, Russia's Energy Ministry said in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://t.me/s/minenergo_official/3799">post</a> on Telegram, though it didn't clarify how much further it would cut.

Russia's oil revenue has plunged as global crude prices tumble

The rupee pared its initial losses and settled for the day on an almost flat note at 83.50 (provisional) against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword> on Thursday, resisting pressure from elevated <keyword id="20024983" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crude-oil-prices" source="keywords">crude oil prices</keyword>. <keyword id="20024982" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forex-traders" source="keywords">Forex traders</keyword> said a positive trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices touched all-time high levels, and significant foreign fund inflows supported the rupee and restricted the fall. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.52 and hit the intraday high of 83.48 and a low of 83.56 against the American currency during the session. It finally settled at 83.50 (provisional) against the dollar, 1 paisa lower than its previous close. On Wednesday, the rupee settled 1 paisa lower at 83.49 against the US dollar. "We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on softness in the US dollar amid weak economic data and rise in risk appetite in global markets," said Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas. "However, elevated crude oil prices may limit the gains. Investors may remain cautious ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report tomorrow," Choudhary said, adding that USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.20 to Rs 83.80. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.15 per cent lower at 105.24. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.47 per cent lower at USD 86.93 per barrel. In the domestic equity market, Sensex breached the historic 80,000-mark and Nifty scaled a fresh lifetime high. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended the day 62.87 points, or 0.08 per cent, up at its all-time high of 80,049.67 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 15.65 points, or 0.06 per cent, higher at a fresh peak of 24,302.15 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Wednesday, as they purchased shares worth Rs 5,483.63 crore, according to exchange data. Meanwhile, according to an official of S&amp;P Global Ratings, a sovereign rating upgrade for India in the next 24 months is possible if the central government is able to prudently manage its finances and bring down the fiscal deficit to 4 per cent of GDP. S&amp;P Global Ratings Director, Sovereign Ratings, YeeFarn Phua, said the trigger for an upgrade would be the government (Centre + states) deficit falling below 7 per cent of the GDP, and a lot of this would have to be driven by the central government. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/virat-kohli-not-included-in-the-rohit-sharma-led-icc-team-of-the-tournament/slidelist/111398470.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/virat-kohli-not-included-in-the-rohit-sharma-led-icc-team-of-the-tournament/slidelist/111398470.cms" target="_blank">Virat Kohli not included in the Rohit Sharma-led ICC Team of the Tournament</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/upcoming-cars-launching-in-india-in-july-2024/slidelist/111341281.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/upcoming-cars-launching-in-india-in-july-2024/slidelist/111341281.cms" target="_blank">Upcoming cars launching in India in July 2024</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/reliance-jio-and-airtel-price-hike-new-plans-and-how-you-can-save-money/articleshow/111331794.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/reliance-jio-and-airtel-price-hike-new-plans-and-how-you-can-save-money/articleshow/111331794.cms" target="_blank">Reliance Jio and Airtel price hike – new plans and how you can save money</a>

Rupee falls 1 paisa to close at 83.50 against US dollar

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump has said he plans to bring down gas prices by boosting US oil production.</li><li>ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods doesn't see a US oil boom in the near future.</li></ul>President-elect Donald Trump's promise to unleash a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">big oil boom</a> in the US and lower gas prices is running up against a market reality: The world is already awash in fossil fuels. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.semafor.com/article/11/12/2024/exxon-ceo-darren-woods-donald-trump-shouldnt-scrap-methane-regulations">Semafor</a> on November 12 that while he wants to maintain US oil production at its current highs, the market is already well supplied. "I don't think today that production in the US is constrained," he said. "I don't know that there's an opportunity to unleash a lot of production in the near term." During the presidential campaign, Trump said that he planned to lower energy prices — including the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/us/politics/trump-economics-gas-tariffs-inflation.html">cost of gas</a> — by increasing US oil production. "We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill," Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.factcheck.org/2024/10/the-issues-trumps-proposal-to-lower-prices-by-increasing-energy-production/">said</a> in October. "I will cut your energy prices in half within 12 months." In September, Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/us/politics/trump-economics-gas-tariffs-inflation.html">said</a> he would reduce gas prices to below $2 a gallon. Energy analysts told Business Insider that big oil companies are more focused on returning money to shareholders than investing in projects that boost production, especially because China isn't importing as much oil due to its economic downturn. Their comments underscore how little control a US president has over the oil and gas market, including prices at the pump. "It's a global market," Ben Cahill, director of energy markets and policy at the University of Texas at Austin, told BI. "There's very little any president can do to change the direction of oil or gasoline prices." Cahill added that he expects the US to increase oil production, but it will happen gradually. The US is already producing record amounts of oil, at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545">12.9 million barrels of crude a day in 2023</a> compared with about 11 million barrels per day in 2020, when Trump was in office. Last year, the US also became the world's biggest exporter of natural gas. In October, the US Energy Information Administration <a target="_blank" href="https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/us-eia-expects-domestic-crude-oil-production-reach-135-mbd-2025.html#:~:text=At%20a%20global%20scale%2C%20the,13.5%20mb%2Fd%20in%202025.">projected</a> that the US would produce 13.5million barrels a day in 2025, hitting another record. And there is room for the industry to expand. Woods <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/01/exxon-ceo-says-us-election-wont-affect-oil-production.html">told</a> CNBC earlier this month that there are areas in the Gulf of Mexico — where federal leasing hasn't allowed companies to drill — that could be a source of additional oil production in the long term. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told BI that Trump could take some steps to try to boost US oil production, including easing regulations to open up additional places for companies to drill and working with OPEC. However, he said boosting oil production while keeping prices at a desired level is a "delicate balance" for the industry. "If oil prices drop, you're likely to see a natural decline in US oil production over the long run," he said, adding, "Oil companies have shareholders to be accountable to." In recent years, the US has increased oil production even as President Joe Biden imposed stricter limits on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, oil and gas infrastructure, and gas-powered vehicles to help slow the climate crisis. In a separate interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/exxon-says-trump-should-keep-u-s-in-paris-climate-pact-3d8de471">The Wall Street Journal</a>, Woods added that the US shouldn't drop out of the Paris Agreement as Trump did in his first term and has promised to do again. The nearly 200 countries signed onto that agreement <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-strike-historic-climate-dealfossil-fuels-dubai-2023-12">struck a deal last year at the UN climate summit </a>to move away from fossil fuels this decade and the triple renewable energy by 2030. Woods told Semafor that he supports Biden's limits on methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. Exxon and other US oil majors have goals to reduce emissions, but climate scientists warn<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exxon-chevron-investors-reject-climate-change-proposals-2023-6">they aren't aggressive enough</a> to avert catastrophic levels of global warming.

Trump said he'll unleash an oil boom. Exxon Mobil CEO says not so fast.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Saudi Arabia's oil minister says crude prices could fall as low as $50 per barrel.</li><li>OPEC delegates consider this a signal that the Saudis are ready to engage in a price war.</li></ul>Saudi Arabia's oil minister says oil prices could fall as low as $50 per barrel if OPEC+ keeps overproducing, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/saudi-minister-warns-of-50-oil-as-opec-members-flout-production-curbs-216dc070">Wall Street Journal</a> report.Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman's forecast, made during a conference call last week, was regarded as an indirect threat aimed at others in the oil coalition. According to delegates who spoke with WSJ, it signals Riyadh's readiness to launch a price war if the cartel's outflows aren't restrained.One delegate summarized the minister's remarks bluntly: "Some better shut up and respect their commitments toward OPEC+."$50 per barrel oil would drag <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> crude, the international benchmark, down 33% from current levels.The commodity was trading around $74 per barrel as of Wednesday morning. Crude markets have soared this week amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, as Israel's ground offensive into Lebanon prompted a heavy missile attack from Iran.Though fear grew that this would disrupt regional production, geopolitical tensions have had a limited impact on crude this year. Instead, prices have slumped on waning demand and an excessive supply glut, pushing Brent down 16% since peaking in April.That's despite OPEC's efforts to keep prices elevated by slashing output. Although numerous production cuts have been announced since mid-2023, this has only cost the coalition market share, without arresting prices.Part of the issue is that members are not sticking to their pledged cuts. The Saudi minister called out Iraq, which surpassed its quota by 400,000 barrels per day in August, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/080824-opec-produces-437000-bd-above-quota-in-first-month-of-compensation-cuts">S&amp;P Global Ratings</a> data. Kazakhstan, which overproduced by 120,000 barrels a day, was also singled out.Although Saudi Arabia's economy depends on higher pricing, a report from last week suggests that the kingdom might be ready to boost its <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-oil-prices-brent-crude-outlook-opec-production-cuts-2024-9">oil output and bolster its market share</a>.One source told the Financial Times that Riyadh would ditch its curbs quicker than expected if countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan keep producing above their quota.This decision will become public on December 1, when OPEC is scheduled to determine whether to increase production. Though it was initially meant to do so in October, the decision was delayed.Saudi Arabia has a history of shaking up the market by increasing production. The OPEC leader caused prices to fall below $10 per barrel in 1986 after boosting output to penalize other producers.

Saudi minister says crude prices could fall 33% if OPEC members don't stop pumping so much

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Brent crude has fallen below a key threshold of $70 per barrel, and analysts expect it to fall further.</li><li>Falling oil prices lessen the odds of a US recession, market veteran Ed Yardeni said.</li></ul>Oil prices are on the retreat, a welcome sight for those anxious about a US downturn.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> crude, the international benchmark, dropped as low as $68.78 a barrel on Tuesday. That puts the commodity at its <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-outlook-supply-demand-break-down-record-us-production-2024-9">lowest level in three years</a>, breaking past a key threshold of $70 per barrel.Although falling prices might spell trouble for oil producers who hinge on the product, it could ease the chances of a US recession, one economist wrote.According to Ed Yardeni, the impact is multi-pronged:First, falling oil prices depreciate the dollar, as fewer greenbacks are necessary to import barrels. As the dollar declines, US exports typically rise.Meanwhile, cheaper energy reduces cost burdens in manufacturing, construction, and agriculture, Yardeni said. It also boosts consumer spending, as Americans are less restricted by prices at the pump."All that reduces the chances of a US recession," the Yardeni Research president said in a note on Wednesday.Some on Wall Street expect the price rout to deepen, going as far as $60 a barrel by 2025.This is a "high conviction" forecast for Citigroup's Max Layton, who told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-09-11/citigroup-s-layton-sees-average-60-oil-price-in-2025-video">Bloomberg</a> that oversupply conditions will continue to dent prices."The market just simply got closer to D-Day, really — to that kind of big surplus that we've been forecasting for some time," the Global Head of Commodities Research said. "I would say the market is trying to send a strong signal to OPEC that there's no room for any more barrels."In its latest monthly report, the cartel <a target="_blank" href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm">cut its outlook</a> on oil demand, as Chinese consumption slows. Daily global demand is now set to grow by 2 million barrels per day this year, or 80,000 barrels less than previously expected.According to Bank of America, China has accounted for roughly 45% of global liquid consumption since 2001. Yet a disappointing post-pandemic recovery — coupled with the rising popularity of electric vehicles in the country — has chipped at this trend.The bank anticipates next year's global oil demand to fall to 1.1 million barrels per day. With more production coming online from non-OPEC countries, BofA expects an oil surplus of 730,000 barrels per day next year.In a note published last week, it expects Brent to trade at $75 per barrel through 2025.

How plunging oil prices could help the US avoid recession

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil prices plunged to their lowest level since December 2021, with Brent oil falling 4% to $68.99 on Tuesday.</li><li>Supply and demand issues, including a slowdown in China's economy, are pressuring prices.</li></ul>Oil prices plunged on Tuesday to hit their lowest level since December 2021.Prices for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=brent">brent crude, </a>the international benchmark, fell 4% on Tuesday to $68.99 a barrel, representing a significant break below the key $70 support level. Tuesday's decline in Brent oil follows last week's 8% decline in the commodity.A one-two punch of supply and demand issues has pressured oil's 10% year-to-date price decline, with demand concerns taking center stage in recent weeks.A growth scare in early August and lingering concerns of a US recession, combined with the continued slowdown in China's economy, have hurt the demand outlook for oil.In its monthly oil market report, OPEC <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm">cut its outlook</a> for oil demand because of the deceleration in China's economy. It now expects daily demand for oil to grow by roughly 2 million barrels per day in 2024, 80,000 barrels per day lower than its prior forecast.OPEC also cut its 2025 demand outlook for oil by 40,000 barrels per day to 1.7 million barrels.Because of the lower demand expectations and slumping oil prices, OPEC delayed its plans to boost oil production through at least November, but the move probably won't have as much of an impact on the price of oil as it has in the past. That's because the US is producing a record amount of oil, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-oil-production-boom-crude-supply-wti-price-goldman-sachs-2024-7">it's showing no signs of slowing down.</a>America's oil production continues to grow, hitting 13 million barrels per day in August, according to data from YCharts. That's nearly double its oil production levels in 2014.Senior market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation said in an email that investors shouldn't expect a rebound in oil prices anytime soon."The fundamentals should continue to weigh on prices, as supply remains plentiful while the outlook for demand growth remains weak," Morrison said.He added: "Recent experience suggests that crude oil can stay oversold for long periods of time, so this shouldn't imply that a bounce is coming."

Why oil prices have cratered to their lowest level in nearly 3 years

After reporting <keyword id="21767878" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="record-profits" source="keywords">record profits</keyword>, state-owned <keyword id="20459282" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="fuel-retailers" source="keywords">fuel retailers</keyword> <keyword id="19908045" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-Oil-Corporation" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Indian Oil Corporation" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Indian Oil Corporation">Indian Oil Corporation</keyword> (<keyword id="6354733" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IOC" source="Orion">IOC</keyword>), <keyword id="19908646" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BPCL" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="BPCL" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="BPCL">BPCL</keyword> and <keyword id="20052221" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HPCL" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HPCL" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="HPCL">HPCL</keyword> posted up to 90 per cent slump in their June quarter earnings as margins fell and they booked under-recovery on the sale of domestic cooking gas LPG at government-controlled rates. IOC, the nation's largest oil firm, reported 81 per cent drop in standalone net profit in April-June - the first quarter of current 2024-25 fiscal year - to Rs 2,643.18 crore as opposed to a profit of Rs 13,750.44 crore a year back, according to a company filing. Net profit also declined sequentially, when compared to an earning of Rs 11,570.82 crore in March quarter. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) posted 90 per cent drop in profit to Rs 633.94 crore as compared to an earning of Rs 6,765.50 crore in April-June 2023 and Rs 2,709.31 crore in the preceding March quarter. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) net profit dropped to Rs 2,841.55 crore in April-June from Rs 10,644.30 crore a year back and Rs 4,789.57 crore in January-March, its filing showed. The three fuel retailers made extraordinary gains from holding petrol and diesel prices despite a drop in cost. The price freeze was justified in the name of recovering losses they had suffered in the previous year when they did not raise retail prices despite a surge in cost. The gains arising from the price freeze were eroded with petrol and diesel prices being cut by Rs 2 per litre each just before general elections and a fall in refining margins. Also, the three had uncompensated <keyword id="20866844" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="LPG-subsidy" source="keywords">LPG subsidy</keyword> - IOC booking under-recovery of Rs 5,156.23 crore in April-June, BPCL Rs 2,015.10 crore and HPCL Rs 2,443.71 crore, according to the filings. As per an order of the oil ministry, when market determined price (MDP) of LPG cylinders is less than its effective cost to customer (ECC), oil marketing companies (OMCs) have to retain the difference in a separate buffer account for future adjustment. However, as on June 30, 2024, the three firms had a net negative buffer as the retail selling price was less than MDP. The three retailers IOC, BPCL and HPCL had reported record profits totalling about Rs 81,000 crore in FY24 (2023-24), which was far more than their annual earnings of Rs 39,356 crore in pre-oil crisis years. This is because they resisted calls to revert to daily price revision and pass on softening in rates to consumers on grounds that prices continue to be extremely volatile - rising on one day and falling on the other - and that they needed to recoup losses incurred in the year, when they kept rates lower than cost. IOC in 2023-24 posted a standalone net profit of Rs 39,618.84 crore compared to Rs 8,241.82 crore in 2022-23. While the company could argue that FY23 was impacted by the <keyword id="21626914" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-crisis" source="keywords">oil crisis</keyword>, the FY24 earnings are higher than even the pre-crisis years - Rs 24,184 crore net profit in 2021-22 and Rs 21,836 crore in 2020-21. BPCL posted a net profit of Rs 26,673.50 crore in FY24, higher than Rs 1,870.10 crore earnings in 2022-23 and Rs 8,788.73 crore in FY22. HPCL's 2023-24 profit of Rs 14,693.83 crore is compared with a Rs 8,974.03 crore loss in FY23 and a profit of Rs 6,382.63 crore in 2021-22, according to the filings. The losses in FY23 had led to the finance minister announcing Rs 30,000 crore equity infusion in the three firms. Mid-way through the year, that support was halved to Rs 15,000 crore. The support was to happen by way of equity infusion via a rights issue. But after the record profits of 2023-24, the equity infusion plan has now been scrapped. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had on February 1 last year, while presenting the annual Budget for the 2023-24 fiscal (April 2023 to March 2024), announced an equity infusion of Rs 30,000 crore in IOC, BPCL and HPCL to support the three state-owned firm's energy transition plans. In the interim budget that the finance minister presented in February this year ahead of the general elections, the capital support to the three oil companies was halved to Rs 15,000 crore. In the full budget for 2024-25, both plans have been scrapped. While other state-owned oil companies like Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and GAIL (India) Ltd too have lined up billions of dollars of investment to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, the equity support was limited to the three fuel retailers, which had suffered huge losses in 2022 when they held retail petrol, diesel and cooking gas (LPG) prices despite a spike in raw material (crude oil) prices, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The board of IOC and BPCL had last year approved rights issues to raise to Rs 22,000 crore and Rs 18,000 crore, respectively. The government was to participate in the rights issue. The three companies, which control roughly 90 per cent of India's fuel market, 'voluntarily' have not changed petrol, diesel and cooking gas (LPG) prices, resulting in losses when input costs were higher and profits when raw material prices were lower. They posted a combined net loss of Rs 21,201.18 crore during April-September 2022 despite accounting for Rs 22,000 crore announced but not paid LPG subsidy for the previous two years. Subsequent softening of international prices and government giving out LPG subsidies helped IOC and BPCL post annualised profit for 2022-23, but HPCL was in the red. In FY24, things changed dramatically, and the three firms posted record earnings.

After record profits, state-owned fuel retailers Indian Oil, BPCL and HPCL see profit slump in Q1

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil prices could surge past $200 a barrel if Iran's oil installations are taken offline, a chief commodities expert said.</li><li>Iran accounts for over 2 million barrels of crude exports per day.</li></ul>Oil prices could roar past $200 a barrel if escalating tensions in the Middle East decimate Iran's crude output, a chief commodities analyst <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/10/03/oil-may-hit-200-if-irans-energy-infrastructure-is-targeted-analyst.html">told CNBC</a>.SEB's Bjarne Schieldrop noted that that Iran accounts for over 2 million barrels of crude and compensate exports per day. He said that if rising conflict in the region were to wipe out Iranian oil infrastructure, that would significantly reduce the OPEC+ coalition's spare oil capacity.That not only means higher prices but amplified market uncertainty, Schieldrop added: "The next question in the market would be, what will happen now in the strait of Hormuz, and that, of course, would then add a significant risk premium to oil."In the $200 per barrel scenario, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> crude, the international benchmark, would gain 161% from its current price.Oil is trading at $76.44 as of 11:20 am ET Thursday. Prices have risen nearly 10% from a bottom on Tuesday, triggered by Iran's major missile attack on Israel. The attack came in response to the Israeli ground offensive into Lebanon. Traders are monitoring for further escalation, with special attention on how Israel might retaliate.Despite the rally, Brent crude still trades around 16% below this year's $91 peak. Other analysts appear aligned with Schieldrop, noting that geopolitical tensions will remain insignificant until investors see oil infrastructure take actual damage."The market is complacent about geopolitical risk. If you don't see barrels going offline, like we saw with Libya recently, the impact doesn't matter much," Rapidan founder Bob McNally told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I87xfAoUbo">CNBC</a>. He added: "I think they're hoping and expecting perhaps Israel will be restrained in its response, and that we won't see a material disruption in the energy production and flows."Still, some investors are betting on the possibility of damaged oil output, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/traders-bet-on-100-a-barrel-oil-as-mideast-risks-escalate">Bloomberg</a> reports. Nearly 27 million barrels of Brent $100 options calls were traded on Wednesday, meaning that traders are hedging against the risk of triple-digit oil prices.Growing tensions between Israel and Iran are not the only factor moving oil prices. In December, the OPEC+ cartel will decide whether to unleash more crude output, undoing some of the production coalition's production curbs.These restrictions were introduced to prop up oil prices, but have cost the alliance market share. Meanwhile, some members haven't stuck with their quotas, drawing the ire of Saudi Arabia, the OPEC leader.Last week, the kingdom warned that Brent could fall as low as <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-opec-oil-production-cuts-crude-prices-middle-east-2024-10?_gl=1*ani1tt*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzk3MDc1NC42ODQuMC4xNzI3OTcwNzU0LjYwLjAuMA..">$50 a barrel</a> if OPEC doesn't reduce outflows, as pledged. Some consider this a veiled threat that Riyadh will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-oil-prices-brent-crude-outlook-opec-production-cuts-2024-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">increase its own output</a> if members don't fall into line.

Oil prices could surge 161% if Middle East conflict wipes out Iran's energy infrastructure, commodity chief says

The <keyword id="19949639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rupee" source="keywords">rupee</keyword> appreciated 5 paise to 83.44 against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword> in early trade on Monday, as the American currency and crude <keyword id="19900090" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-prices" source="keywords">oil prices</keyword> retreated from their elevated levels. <keyword id="19950258" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Forex" source="keywords">Forex</keyword> traders said foreign fund inflows also aided investors' sentiments and supported the rupee. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.45 and gained further to 83.44 against the greenback, registering a rise of 5 paise from its previous close. On Friday, the rupee settled at 83.49 against the US dollar. According to CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari the Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) seems determined to prevent the rupee from depreciating below 83.70. Even with pressure from oil companies due to elevated oil prices. "Overall, positive economic indicators such as a good growth rate, stable inflation, a reduced fiscal deficit, record-high RBI forex reserves, and a pipeline of inflows are all supportive factors that should ideally bolster the rupee," Pabari said, adding that given these factors, the rupee is expected to trade within a broad range of 83.20 to 83.70 levels. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 104.86, lower by 0.01 per cent. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.03 per cent to USD 86.51 per barrel. On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 174.57 points, or 0.22 per cent, to 79,822.03 points. The broader NSE Nifty declined 13.05 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 24,310.80 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday, as they purchased shares worth Rs 1,241.33 crore, according to exchange data. On the domestic macroeconomic front, India's forex reserves dropped USD 1.713 billion to USD 651.997 billion for the week ended June 28, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the overall kitty had dropped USD 2.922 billion to USD 652.895 billion. The reserves had touched an all-time high of USD 655.817 billion on June 7 this year. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/reliance-jio-ipo-mukesh-ambani-led-telco-might-be-gearing-up-for-indias-biggest-ipo/articleshow/111519009.cms">Reliance Jio IPO – Mukesh Ambani-led telco might be gearing up for India’s biggest IPO</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-vs-airtel-vs-vi-prepaid-plans-comparison-plan-benefits-and-price-comparison-after-tariff-hike/articleshow/111512587.cms">Jio vs Airtel vs Vi recharge plans comparison – plan benefits and price comparison after tariff hike</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/hp-envy-x360-14-review/articleshow/111407165.cms">HP Envy x360 14 review – feature-packed laptop with a sleek design</a>

Rupee rises 5 paise to 83.44 against US dollar in early trade

<ul><li>In a meeting over the weekend, Saudi Arabia, the OPEC kingpin, decided to extend production cuts taken in April through to 2024. </li><li>Brent <keyword id="102132" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crude-oil-prices" source="Orion">crude oil prices</keyword> had averaged $75.6 per barrel in May 2023, as compared to a peak of $122.9 per barrel it hit last June. </li><li>In Asia trade on Monday, Brent crude oil rose by as much as 2.5% after Saudi Arabia’s decision was announced.</li></ul>Crude oil is likely to trade with an upward momentum after oil cartel OPEC+ decided to extend its production cuts through to 2024. Analysts who track the black gold prices are now predicting that Brent crude prices may hit $100 per barrel by the time 2023 ends. In a meeting over the weekend, the cartel decided to extend a surprise production cut taken in April. In April, OPEC+ or Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, had agreed to cut production by 1.6 million barrels per day. This comes after their April cut did not produce the desired effect, as a soft global economic outlook continued to hammer down prices. Speaking <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/crude-may-touch-100-105/-barrel-by-early-2024-dr-fereidun-fesharaki-explains-why/articleshow/99257171.cms?from=mdr">to the Economic Times</a>, Fereidun Fesharaki of Facts Global Energy, said that he expects Brent to hit $105 per barrel by the time 2024 starts. G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research, also holds a similar view. In Asia trade on Monday, Brent crude oil rose by as much as 2.4% before settling at around $77 a barrel. “West Texas Intermediate futures jumped almost 5% early in the session before paring gains to trade under $73 a barrel while global benchmark Brent changed hands at about $77,” said a morning update by research firm SMIFS. Before the production cut, <keyword id="6354418" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-prices" source="Orion">oil prices</keyword> have been rising ever since the US announced upbeat non-farm payroll data on Friday. “We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile in today’s session. Crude oil has support at $72.10–71.30 and resistance at $73.60–74.50 in today’s session. In INR, crude oil has support at ₹5,860-5,770, while resistance is at ₹6,020–6,100,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities. Brent crude oil prices had averaged $75.6 per barrel in May 2023. During the same time last year, in June, they peaked to $122.9 per barrel. OPEC+ accounts for around 40% of the world’s oil production, and its decisions have a sway over the market and the prices. Yet, after Germany has slipped into recession, and demand from China yet to pick up, the prices of the commodity have been soft. Saudi goes for a voluntary production cut The world’s largest oil producer Saudi Arabia, the major player in OPEC, said that it will trim oil production by another millions barrels per day in July. With the voluntary cut, Saudi Arabia’s production fell to the lowest level for several years. In April, the Middle Eastern nation had announced a voluntary cut of half a million barrels per day. “The kingdom (of Saudi Arabia) also said the latest cut could be extended depending on market conditions. This brings Saudi Arabia’s total production levels to around 9 mbpd in July compared with 10.5 mbpd in April. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman also said he will do whatever is necessary to bring stability to this market,” said Ravindra V Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP-Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities. The rest of the 23-nation group offered no additional action to buttress the current market, but did pledge to maintain their existing cuts until the end of 2024. “Markets are likely to tilt into a deficit in the second half of 2023, if Chinese demand recovery materializes. With rising odds of a Fed pause in June coupled with tightening supplies, we might see oil prices trading with an upside momentum,” said Ravindra V Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP-Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities. Analysts also add that the voluntary cut is taken to drive downside protection, rather than spur a sustained rally. In spite of these moves, oil prices will be driven by a broader outlook of macroeconomic weakness. According to the IMF, g<a href="https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/indicators/imf-cuts-indias-fy24-gdp-forecast-to-5-9/articleshow/99411127.cms?_oref=cook">lobal GDP growt</a>h is expected to fall to 2.8% in 2023, after growing at 3.4% percent in 2022. It also expects the growth to settle at 3% percent in 2024. (With IANS inputs) SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/may-auto-sales-rise-10-but-face-multiple-challenges-ahead-says-fada/articleshow/100757818.cms">May auto sales rise 10% but still below pre-Covid level with challenges in store</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/tcs-reliance-industries-and-jio-are-among-indias-top-5-valuable-brands/articleshow/100680163.cms">Two Mukesh Ambani-owned companies are among India’s top 5 valuable brands</a>

Crude oil prices may hit $100/bbl after OPEC+ decision, say analysts

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Winter winds and freezing temperatures have slowed Russian crude exports, Bloomberg reported.</li><li>The icy storms and a Ukrainian drone strike last week have helped knock shipments to an 8-week low.</li></ul>An icy blast of winter weather has stalled Russia's oil exports from a key Pacific port supplying Chinese buyers, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/russia-s-oil-exports-by-sea-are-battered-by-winter-storms?srnd=markets-vp">reported</a> on Tuesday.The winter winds and freezing temperatures have reduced Russia's weekly crude flows, with 3.09 million barrels a day of oil shipped from Russian ports in the four weeks through January 28, down by about 250,000 barrels a day from the three weeks through January 21. The weekly average fell by 120,000 barrels a day.The wintry storms, coupled with loading disruptions caused by a Ukrainian drone strike last week, combined to force Russian crude exports to hit an 8-week low of 2.8 million barrels a day.While the chaos chilled activity at some ports, it was partly offset by a record 11 tankers loaded at Russia's Primorsk port (the largest oil-loading port in the Baltic Sea). Asian countries like China and India have emerged as big importers of Russian oil after the West levied heavy sanctions on the Kremlin following the invasion of Ukraine, making them crucial crude trading partners. But the shipments that do make it out of ports like Primorsk still have more hurdles to cross in the Red Sea, where Yemen's Houthi rebels continue to attack commercial ships passing through the key trading lane. While the Houthis have guaranteed Russian ships safe passage through the key waterway, ships carrying cargo of Urals crude and Russian naphtha have been attacked in the past few months.A reduction in shipping ability follows on the heels of Russia agreeing to cut oil output as a part of the OPEC+ decision to suck oil supply out of the market to boost prices. The Kremlin has said it will cut about 500,000 barrels a day below the May-June average for the first quarter of the year.

Winter winds are freezing Russia's crude oil shipments to China

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil prices hit their lowest level since August on Tuesday, with WTI crude below $80 a barrel.</li><li>Economic data from China was mixed, while top OPEC+ producers are extending supply cuts.</li></ul>Oil prices declined Tuesday to their lowest levels since August amid a medley of factors for the commodity. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate</a> shed 2.2%, falling to $79.08 a barrel, while <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, moved lower 2.1% to $83.39 a barrel. In September, Brent neared $100.Both oil benchmarks have also erased nearly all gains made since the outbreak of the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-israel-hamas-war-exposing-new-limits-of-us-power-2023-10">Israel-Hamas conflict</a> in the first week of October. Energy market traders seemed to have shrugged off the risk premium of a prolonged war, regional oil supply woes, and potential spillover effects. "Traders still don't see the current Middle Eastern hostilities spreading out and affecting supply," David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said in emailed comments. "Instead, it's the demand side which is the focus, with concerns of economic weakness in China and elsewhere capping prices."<h3>A mixed China outlook</h3><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-deflation-markets-property-real-estate-housing-beijing-2023-8">China's economic growth has faltered for months</a>, and there's still little sign of what had been a much anticipated post-pandemic rebound.While China imported about 13.5% more crude this October compared to last, that's partly due to COVID-19 lockdowns that were still in place a year ago. Meanwhile, the world's second largest economy saw its trade surplus drop unexpectedly last month, with exports falling 6.4% year over year and imports declining 6.2%. <h3>Russia and Saudi Arabia</h3>Supply cuts from OPEC+ put upward pressure on oil prices earlier this year, but its latest moves aren't producing similar results.Top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia have committed to maintaining their oil supply cuts until the end of the year, officials said this week. According to a November 5 <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/110523-russia-saudi-arabia-affirm-commitment-to-voluntary-supply-cuts-to-end-2023" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a>, Saudi Arabia will carry on with its voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day while Russia will keep its 300,000 barrels-per-day cut through December 2023. Both countries expect to review the decision again next month to decide whether to deepen those cuts or ramp production back up.<h3>Higher-for-longer interest rates</h3>With its 11 interest rate hikes since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has led other central banks in putting an end to the easy-money era.That's weighed on economic growth around the world as businesses struggle under a shifting monetary policy regime — which ultimately dampens oil demand. "That we're seeing data that confirms economies are struggling under the pressure of high interest rates which are not expected to decline soon may also have contributed to oil reversing its gains," said OANDA senior analyst Craig Erlam. "It's no surprise then that Saudi Arabia and Russia remain committed to their end-of-year cuts, it's just a question of whether they will be extended. That they haven't already perhaps suggests there's some reluctance too, which may also be weighing on prices a little."

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