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The <keyword id="19949639" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Rupee" source="keywords">rupee</keyword> traded flat at 83.53 against the US currency in early trade on Friday amid firm <keyword id="20024983" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crude-oil-prices" source="keywords">crude oil prices</keyword> and gains in domestic stocks. At the interbank <keyword id="21316589" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-exchange-market" source="keywords">foreign exchange market</keyword>, the rupee opened flat at 83.53 against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword>. The local unit moved in a tight range of 83.50 to 83.54 in morning deals. The rupee was trading flat at 83.53 against the US dollar at 0935 hrs. Forex dealers said the impact of firm crude oil prices was offset by overnight losses in the US dollar index and early gains in the domestic equity markets. The US dollar index eased on Thursday after softer US inflation data raised hopes of rate cut by the US Fed by September. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.05 per cent lower at 104.49. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.20 per cent higher at USD 85.60 per barrel. Domestic equity markets were trading higher in early session on Friday. Benchmark Sensex climbed 226.11 points to 80,123.45 while broader Nifty was up 82.1 points to 24,398.05. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 1,137.01 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee trades flat at 83.53 against US dollar in early trade

In early Wednesday trading, the Indian rupee slid 14 paise to hit an all-time low of 84.23 per US dollar, weighed down by continued outflows of foreign funds and a robust US dollar in global markets. Forex analysts highlighted the volatility stemming from the ongoing US elections, suggesting that stability could return once results are clear in this close race. The US Federal Reserve is also on the radar, with an anticipated interest rate cut this week and a projected easing of up to 100 basis points by 2025. At the interbank forex market, the rupee opened at its historic low of 84.23 against the dollar, down from its previous close of 84.09. On Tuesday, the currency had ended slightly stronger, gaining 2 paise. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which tracks the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies, climbed 1.64% to 105.11. According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, the index rose following initial election results showing former President Trump ahead, with the Republican party also leading in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The global oil market saw movement as Brent crude prices dipped 0.98%, trading at USD 74.79 per barrel. Bhansali noted that the rupee’s trajectory will heavily depend on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) response, particularly as the currency fluctuates with real-time election outcomes. He estimated an intra-day trading range between 84.00 and 84.35. On the domestic front, Indian stock markets showed positive trends. The Sensex climbed by 390.93 points (0.49%) to reach 79,867.56, while the Nifty rose by 135.60 points (0.56%) to 24,348.90. Despite these gains, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers on Tuesday, pulling out Rs 2,569.41 crore from the capital markets, as per stock exchange data. This withdrawal underscores the challenges facing the Indian currency amid global financial uncertainties. (with PTI inputs)

Rupee hits record low of 84.23 against US dollar amidst US elections 2024

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="8204529" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-prices-jump" source="Orion">Oil prices jump</keyword> and stocks sink on reports of escalating Middle East tensions.</li><li>Israel struck Iran early Friday morning, multiple agencies reported, citing US officials.</li></ul><keyword id="6354418" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-prices" source="Orion">Oil prices</keyword> jumped while stocks sold off after reports of an escalation in Middle East tensions. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/explosion-heard-in-iran-according-to-state-media-2024-4">Israel struck a site in Iran</a> early Friday morning, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-18-24/index.html">multiple</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-iran-missile-strikes/">outlets</a> reported, citing US officials. International benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose as much as 4.2% before trading 2.8% higher at $89.54 a barrel at 11:15 p.m. EDT. US West Texas Intermediate futures were 3.2% higher at $85.40 a barrel. The strike on Friday came days after <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-iran-readying-cruise-missiles-possible-strike-on-israel-reports-2024-4">Iran attacked Israel</a> on Saturday with a barrage of more than <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-forces-destroyed-iran-missiles-drones-massive-air-defense-battle-2024-4">300 missiles and drones</a>. On April 1, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-doesnt-want-full-on-war-israel-will-still-threaten-2024-4">Iran's embassy</a> in Damascus, Syria, was hit with a strike. Israel didn't claim responsibility for the strike, but Iran held it accountable and vowed retaliation. Earlier this week, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/europe-joins-us-urging-restraint-by-israel-after-iranian-attack-2024-04-15/">Israel pledged retaliation</a> over Iran's missile and drone attack. Oil markets shrugged off Iran's attack on Israel as the market assessed the <a target="_blank" class="c-link" href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-oil-sees-muted-open-223236811.html">conflict would remain contained</a>. Friday's reports changed this. Markets have been on edge over fears of a widening of the conflict in the Middle East — a major oil-producing region. A broader conflict could disrupt energy supplies, which could impact the global economy. If the reports turn out to be true, "fears over further escalation will only grow, as well as concerns that we are potentially moving closer towards a situation where oil supply risks lead to actual supply disruptions," <a target="_blank" class="c-link" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/the-commodities-feed-oil-surges-on-escalation-fears190424/">ING commodity strategists wrote on Friday</a>. "It's a shoot first and ask questions later dynamic for investors. This is Israel's 'tat' to Iran's 'tit,' and the fear is that this tit-for-tat situation could spiral further out of control," Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at <a target="_blank" href="http://Capital.com">Capital.com</a>, an online trading platform, told Business Insider. "Iran seems to be downplaying the attack for now, which says to me that it does not wish to inflame the situation further and create conditions in which it will be forced to retaliate with equal or greater force," Rodda said. "However, the event is fresh and fluid, so uncertainty prevails," he added. Stock markets are also selling off on the news while the price of gold, a safe haven, rose to near a record high. US stock futures fell, with S&amp;P500 down 1.3%. Japan's Nikkei 225 index was 3.5% lower at 11:16 a.m. local time. The spot gold price was 1.2% higher at $2,406.92 an ounce.

Oil disruption fears in the Middle East are getting real after reports of an Israel strike on Iran

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil prices ended down 7% last week and are lower this year-to-date, despite Middle East tensions.</li><li>China's economic downturn, the US shale boom, and clean energy are contributing to current oil price trends.</li></ul>The oil markets aren't what they used to be, and two of the world's biggest producers of the commodity are feeling the pressure.Oil prices have been depressed this year because <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-price-today-middle-east-israel-hezbollah-conflict-china-economy-2024-10">China</a> — the world's largest oil importer — is in a prolonged economic downturn. The US' massive boom in oil production over the last 15 years has also kept prices low.Now, Saudi Arabia and Russia are both trying to diversify their economies away from energy, which makes up about 40% and 20% of their GDP, respectively.With the shift, Saudi Arabia and Russia are trying to create new economic engines that can sustain the country for decades, Abishur Prakash, the founder of The Geopolitical Business, a strategy advisory firm in Toronto, told Business Insider.The existential reorientation comes amid what Prakash terms a "geopolitical misalignment," even in the face of a potential supply disruption."The reality is that Middle Eastern oil supplies are in the bull's-eye of geopolitics. A potential back-and-forth between Israel and Iran, which is increasingly likely, will draw in the region's energy ecosystem," he said.But this year, markets have largely shrugged off supply concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict — a break from history, when regional problems sent prices higher.<h2 id="45bcbf13-524d-48a5-aa00-144efa7dd75c">Moving away from oil</h2><a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&amp;t=6.">Saudi Arabia and Russia</a> tied for the world's second-largest oil producer after the US. Last year, they each accounted for 11% of the world's oil supply.While Saudi Arabia and Russia are still the world's top oil exporters, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61584">US — which posted record oil shipments in 2023 — is fast becoming a competitor</a> for market share.In 2016, Saudi Arabia launched a grand <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vision-2030-saudi-arabia-plan-future-proof-oil-economy-2023-8">Vision 2030</a> plan to transform its oil-dependent economy into a more diversified one that includes tourism and sports as key growth pillars.Recently, the kingdom has been indicating that it's frustrated with low oil prices. It's giving up its $100 per barrel price target and is ready to increase oil output, the <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd">Financial Times</a> reported in late September.This means that Saudi Arabia is looking to corner a larger market share instead of targeting higher profit margins by restricting output.Russia has also expressed a desire to stop over-relying on oil exports."We are moving towards reducing the share of volatile income and reducing Russia's dependence on oil and gas in favor of boosting our domestic economy," Anton Siluanov, Russia's finance minister, told <a target="_blank" href="https://russian.rt.com/business/article/1379636-minfin-anton-siluanov-intervyu">RT Television's Arabic</a> service earlier this month.He said that Russia would instead aim to boost its domestic economy but did not specify how.Russia is already moving its trade eastward to address Western sanctions. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.energyintel.com/00000192-ae46-dc01-adba-efff87000000">Saudi Arabia,</a> too, is looking to sell more oil to developing countries, whose electric vehicle adoption lags behind China and the West.Asia's emerging economies are expected to drive <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/global-oil-demand-prices-supply-opec-us-crude-producers-iea-2024-6">global oil demand</a> over the rest of the decade, as the world's consumption rises from 101.7 million barrels a day in 2023 to 105.6 million barrels per day by 2030, according to a June report from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.iea.org/news/slowing-demand-growth-and-surging-supply-put-global-oil-markets-on-course-for-major-surplus-this-decade">International Energy Agency</a>.<h2 id="6ae61431-8898-4c52-9abf-24b4a2055996">Prices, renewable energy, and the US all play a role</h2>Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over fears of a widening war, oil prices haven't been on the climb.To be sure, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-prediction-brent-crude-israel-iran-opec-demand-citi-2024-10">oil prices could still</a> soar if the issues in the Middle East worsen.And there were several price spikes — such as in early October over concerns that Iranian oil facilities could be hit and in August over tensions in the Middle East — but they were shortlived. Oil prices dropped about 7% last week after the concerns subsided.International benchmark <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent</a> crude futures are down about 4% this year to date to around $74 a barrel, and US <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate</a> futures are down 1.3% so far this year to around $70 a barrel.A key contributor to the price trend comes from the US, which has witnessed a significant rise in oil production over the last 15 years following the shale oil boom.Matthew Huber, a Syracuse University professor who specializes in energy, climate politics, and resource geography, said the US has nudged Saudi Arabia out of its role as a swing producer."I think the US has now overtaken this role and because we're not in the Middle East, geopolitical conflict there is less impactful," Huber added.Then there's renewable energy."The explosion of electric vehicle adoption in China (and presumably or eventually in the US and Europe) means the writing is on the wall and we're going to reach 'peak demand' for oil sometime soon," said Huber. "It was always a good idea to diversify one's economy away from just oil but now more than ever."<h2 id="f0b0eb00-b6b7-4f2f-9acd-d2d555ca6010">The role of OPEC</h2>The changing dynamics of oil also sharpens the long-standing question of OPEC's influence and relevance. The oil producer group led by Saudi Arabia accounts for about 30% of global crude production."It goes in cycles. They were obviously relevant in the 1970s when they were able to increase prices almost single-handedly," said Huber."But the problem is when oil prices spike, it sends oil companies searching for temporarily profitable oil," he added, referring to the US shale boom as the most recent example.OPEC also faces rifts within its members, who have competing priorities."The big question now is whether OPEC members are all aligned in terms of oil targets," said The Geopolitical Business's Prakash, who added that not all OPEC members may be on board with Saudi Arabia's plan to boost production.A potential Trump presidency in the US could drive <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-trump-win-election-financials-energy-rbc-2024-10">domestic oil and gas production.</a>"If OPEC can't bring everybody together, and members go their separate ways, it will lead to a further polarization of the Middle East," said Prakash."Instead of energy bringing the region together, like it did in the past, energy coupled with geopolitics could fragment the Middle East," he said.

2 of the world's biggest oil producers are looking for new ways to power their economies

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Saudi Arabia's oil minister says crude prices could fall as low as $50 per barrel.</li><li>OPEC delegates consider this a signal that the Saudis are ready to engage in a price war.</li></ul>Saudi Arabia's oil minister says oil prices could fall as low as $50 per barrel if OPEC+ keeps overproducing, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/saudi-minister-warns-of-50-oil-as-opec-members-flout-production-curbs-216dc070">Wall Street Journal</a> report.Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman's forecast, made during a conference call last week, was regarded as an indirect threat aimed at others in the oil coalition. According to delegates who spoke with WSJ, it signals Riyadh's readiness to launch a price war if the cartel's outflows aren't restrained.One delegate summarized the minister's remarks bluntly: "Some better shut up and respect their commitments toward OPEC+."$50 per barrel oil would drag <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> crude, the international benchmark, down 33% from current levels.The commodity was trading around $74 per barrel as of Wednesday morning. Crude markets have soared this week amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, as Israel's ground offensive into Lebanon prompted a heavy missile attack from Iran.Though fear grew that this would disrupt regional production, geopolitical tensions have had a limited impact on crude this year. Instead, prices have slumped on waning demand and an excessive supply glut, pushing Brent down 16% since peaking in April.That's despite OPEC's efforts to keep prices elevated by slashing output. Although numerous production cuts have been announced since mid-2023, this has only cost the coalition market share, without arresting prices.Part of the issue is that members are not sticking to their pledged cuts. The Saudi minister called out Iraq, which surpassed its quota by 400,000 barrels per day in August, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/080824-opec-produces-437000-bd-above-quota-in-first-month-of-compensation-cuts">S&amp;P Global Ratings</a> data. Kazakhstan, which overproduced by 120,000 barrels a day, was also singled out.Although Saudi Arabia's economy depends on higher pricing, a report from last week suggests that the kingdom might be ready to boost its <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-oil-prices-brent-crude-outlook-opec-production-cuts-2024-9">oil output and bolster its market share</a>.One source told the Financial Times that Riyadh would ditch its curbs quicker than expected if countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan keep producing above their quota.This decision will become public on December 1, when OPEC is scheduled to determine whether to increase production. Though it was initially meant to do so in October, the decision was delayed.Saudi Arabia has a history of shaking up the market by increasing production. The OPEC leader caused prices to fall below $10 per barrel in 1986 after boosting output to penalize other producers.

Saudi minister says crude prices could fall 33% if OPEC members don't stop pumping so much

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Both presidential campaigns have discussed ideas for cutting housing costs.</li><li>JD Vance says a Trump administration would build more homes in part by lowering energy costs.</li></ul>As rising home prices and rents squeeze households across the country, the presidential candidates are weighing in on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2024-06-18-The-U-S-is-now-short-4-5-million-homes-as-the-housing-deficit-grows">housing shortage</a>.Former President Donald Trump doesn't list housing among the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/platform">top 20 priorities</a> on his campaign website, but he and his running mate have argued that some of their top agenda items — including deporting millions of immigrants — would bring down housing costs.In that spirit, Sen. JD Vance recently promised that a future Trump administration would build millions of homes in part by making energy cheaper. "We're going to drill, baby, drill, lower energy costs, and that's going to make it easier to build homes," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pPCCh_t4h8">he said</a> during an October campaign stop in Nevada.Housing policy experts and economists disagree, saying lower energy costs would not significantly boost construction or make homes cheaper.The cost of new housing is largely determined by the availability of workers, the prices of building materials, and government regulations that limit construction. Other policies Trump has promised to enact — including hiking tariffs on a slew of foreign imports and deporting millions of immigrants — are expected to inflate housing costs by increasing the cost of key materials and worsening the labor shortage.A spokesperson for Vance didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.<h2 id="1a82d7c2-a275-42fb-a86a-4ae9f17818b1">Building materials and tariffs outweigh cheaper oil</h2>Economists say that lower electricity costs and diesel fuel prices would make certain goods and services needed to build housing somewhat cheaper. But they wouldn't dent the most significant input costs related to building, which are labor and building materials."I'm not saying it's immaterial," Anirban Basu, chief economist at the construction industry trade group Associated Builders and Contractors, told Business Insider. "Energy prices are significant, but they're not as significant as many other inputs."The prices of key building materials, including lumber and structural steel, are much more consequential. "When softwood lumber prices took off during the pandemic, it really impacted apartment construction and single-family home building," Basu said.Notably, under the Biden administration, the US has produced and exported <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545">more crude oil than ever before</a> in the country's history, even as housing costs have soared.Tariffs imposed by both the Trump and Biden administrations on goods like Canadian lumber aren't helping, Andrew Justus, a housing policy analyst at the Niskanen Center, a nonpartisan think tank, told Business Insider. And Trump has promised to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/trump-tariffs">dramatically hike tariffs</a> if he's elected."When you think about what is specifically within the government's purview, as far as bringing down costs for building homes, one of the easiest things they could do is reduce the extra tax that they levy on the most basic of building materials," Justus said.<h2 id="49b4842e-9770-4c1e-a378-22cc2018c301">Labor costs and cutting red tape are also key</h2>Labor costs are generally growing as a portion of overall construction costs, Basu said. This is largely a result of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-crisis-national-shortage-construction-workers-job-demand-2024-5">national construction worker shortage</a>, particularly among skilled workers, and lagging productivity in the industry. While labor productivity has improved in most sectors of the economy over the last half-century, US construction productivity <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.economist.com/business/2017/08/19/efficiency-eludes-the-construction-industry">has declined</a>."If you look at a typical construction job site, it does not look that different from what it might've looked like five or six decades ago," Basu said.Vance has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-said-migrants-to-blame-for-expensive-homes-wrong-2024-8">also said</a> that Trump's plan to deport millions of immigrants would lower demand for housing and, thereby, slow rising home prices and rents. But economists say immigration isn't a major reason for higher housing costs, and because such a large portion of construction workers are immigrants, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/11/business/economy/trump-housing-crisis-deportations.html">mass deportations would slow home construction and push prices up.</a>"We just don't have the supply of construction labor that we need, and any sort of dramatic reduction in our labor would just make that even worse," Nolan Gray, a city planner and research director for California YIMBY, told Business Insider.But the biggest obstacle to improving housing affordability is local and state regulation. Land-use laws that block denser forms of housing like duplexes or apartment buildings in favor of detached single-family homes make it harder to build cheaper housing."A lot of these suboptimal outcomes come from very poor zoning decisions which tend to favor downzoning of properties, as opposed to embracing density," Basu said.The Trump campaign has said it will cut regulations that stymie building, with Vance saying they'll "stop the ridiculous regulations that make it harder for our construction companies and our workers to build homes" at the Nevada campaign stop.But the campaign hasn't released detailed plans — and when Trump was president, he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/us/politics/trump-suburbs-housing-white-voters.html">pushed to protect single-family zoning</a>, which keeps housing more expensive. And while Vice President Kamala Harris has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-kamala-harris-plans-to-build-3-million-new-homes-2024-8">put forward plans</a> to incentivize deregulation as part of her more explicit housing agenda, most land-use and building regulations are controlled by state and local governments.

JD Vance says pumping more oil will make housing cheaper. Economists say that's a stretch.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The price of oil could hit $120 a barrel by early 2025, according to Citi.</li><li>That's according to the bank's bull case, which assumes conflict in the Middle East escalates.</li></ul>Oil prices could soar more than 60% by early next year if conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, according to Citi.The bank said oil prices could go as high as $120 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, implying a 62% increase. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, traded around $73.48 a barrel around midday on Thursday.The forecast is Citi's bull case for oil, which hinges on conflict in the Middle East escalating and sparking disruptions to supply. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-iran-middle-east-upheaval-hurt-harris-campaign-before-election-2024-10">Should Israel retaliate</a> against Iran's recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">missile attack</a>, that could jeopardize key oil production infrastructure in Iran, which could crimp production and put upwards pressure on prices, according to Eric Lee, an energy strategist at the bank."[T]here are a number of scenarios where this could impact a couple million barrels a day of Iran's oil production and exports, and in that case, we could be looking at something more akin to what happened to Russia-Ukraine in 2022," Lee said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJqqSpqwgTE">interview</a> with Yahoo Finance on Wednesday, pointing to the oil-price spike shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. To be sure, the forecast for $120 a barrel marks a stark divergence from Citi's base case, which is for crude prices to stick around $74 a barrel before drifting lower to $60 a barrel later next year. Israel has also said that it would strike at military targets, rather than nuclear or oil facilities, in retaliation against Iran for its missile attack on October 1. Citi's base case implies an 18% decline in oil prices, largely due to the possibility that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other major oil producers could step in if there are supply disruptions, Lee said.Lee estimated that OPEC+ could have around 6 million barrels a day of extra production capacity. Oil demand, meanwhile, has also faced some "issues," he said, pointing to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-ev-oil-demand-natural-gas-tesla-electric-vehicles-goldman-2024-8">China's weakening economy</a>."This is a very tricky situation, a very binary market, if you will, and that's why again we're being tentative on the upside," he said of the bank's forecasts.Other oil forecasters have predicted prices could soar on the back of Middle East escalations, though some say the risks of a supply disruption in Iran are small. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-opec-oil-production-cuts-crude-prices-middle-east-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Oil prices could fall as much as 33%</a>, Saudi Arabia's oil minister said in a recent conference call, adding that he believed OPEC+ producers were pumping too much oil.

Oil prices could soar 62% by early 2025 if the geopolitical situation deteriorates, Citi strategist says

After reporting <keyword id="21767878" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="record-profits" source="keywords">record profits</keyword>, state-owned <keyword id="20459282" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="fuel-retailers" source="keywords">fuel retailers</keyword> <keyword id="19908045" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-Oil-Corporation" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Indian Oil Corporation" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Indian Oil Corporation">Indian Oil Corporation</keyword> (<keyword id="6354733" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IOC" source="Orion">IOC</keyword>), <keyword id="19908646" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BPCL" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="BPCL" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="BPCL">BPCL</keyword> and <keyword id="20052221" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HPCL" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HPCL" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="HPCL">HPCL</keyword> posted up to 90 per cent slump in their June quarter earnings as margins fell and they booked under-recovery on the sale of domestic cooking gas LPG at government-controlled rates. IOC, the nation's largest oil firm, reported 81 per cent drop in standalone net profit in April-June - the first quarter of current 2024-25 fiscal year - to Rs 2,643.18 crore as opposed to a profit of Rs 13,750.44 crore a year back, according to a company filing. Net profit also declined sequentially, when compared to an earning of Rs 11,570.82 crore in March quarter. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) posted 90 per cent drop in profit to Rs 633.94 crore as compared to an earning of Rs 6,765.50 crore in April-June 2023 and Rs 2,709.31 crore in the preceding March quarter. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) net profit dropped to Rs 2,841.55 crore in April-June from Rs 10,644.30 crore a year back and Rs 4,789.57 crore in January-March, its filing showed. The three fuel retailers made extraordinary gains from holding petrol and diesel prices despite a drop in cost. The price freeze was justified in the name of recovering losses they had suffered in the previous year when they did not raise retail prices despite a surge in cost. The gains arising from the price freeze were eroded with petrol and diesel prices being cut by Rs 2 per litre each just before general elections and a fall in refining margins. Also, the three had uncompensated <keyword id="20866844" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="LPG-subsidy" source="keywords">LPG subsidy</keyword> - IOC booking under-recovery of Rs 5,156.23 crore in April-June, BPCL Rs 2,015.10 crore and HPCL Rs 2,443.71 crore, according to the filings. As per an order of the oil ministry, when market determined price (MDP) of LPG cylinders is less than its effective cost to customer (ECC), oil marketing companies (OMCs) have to retain the difference in a separate buffer account for future adjustment. However, as on June 30, 2024, the three firms had a net negative buffer as the retail selling price was less than MDP. The three retailers IOC, BPCL and HPCL had reported record profits totalling about Rs 81,000 crore in FY24 (2023-24), which was far more than their annual earnings of Rs 39,356 crore in pre-oil crisis years. This is because they resisted calls to revert to daily price revision and pass on softening in rates to consumers on grounds that prices continue to be extremely volatile - rising on one day and falling on the other - and that they needed to recoup losses incurred in the year, when they kept rates lower than cost. IOC in 2023-24 posted a standalone net profit of Rs 39,618.84 crore compared to Rs 8,241.82 crore in 2022-23. While the company could argue that FY23 was impacted by the <keyword id="21626914" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-crisis" source="keywords">oil crisis</keyword>, the FY24 earnings are higher than even the pre-crisis years - Rs 24,184 crore net profit in 2021-22 and Rs 21,836 crore in 2020-21. BPCL posted a net profit of Rs 26,673.50 crore in FY24, higher than Rs 1,870.10 crore earnings in 2022-23 and Rs 8,788.73 crore in FY22. HPCL's 2023-24 profit of Rs 14,693.83 crore is compared with a Rs 8,974.03 crore loss in FY23 and a profit of Rs 6,382.63 crore in 2021-22, according to the filings. The losses in FY23 had led to the finance minister announcing Rs 30,000 crore equity infusion in the three firms. Mid-way through the year, that support was halved to Rs 15,000 crore. The support was to happen by way of equity infusion via a rights issue. But after the record profits of 2023-24, the equity infusion plan has now been scrapped. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had on February 1 last year, while presenting the annual Budget for the 2023-24 fiscal (April 2023 to March 2024), announced an equity infusion of Rs 30,000 crore in IOC, BPCL and HPCL to support the three state-owned firm's energy transition plans. In the interim budget that the finance minister presented in February this year ahead of the general elections, the capital support to the three oil companies was halved to Rs 15,000 crore. In the full budget for 2024-25, both plans have been scrapped. While other state-owned oil companies like Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and GAIL (India) Ltd too have lined up billions of dollars of investment to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, the equity support was limited to the three fuel retailers, which had suffered huge losses in 2022 when they held retail petrol, diesel and cooking gas (LPG) prices despite a spike in raw material (crude oil) prices, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The board of IOC and BPCL had last year approved rights issues to raise to Rs 22,000 crore and Rs 18,000 crore, respectively. The government was to participate in the rights issue. The three companies, which control roughly 90 per cent of India's fuel market, 'voluntarily' have not changed petrol, diesel and cooking gas (LPG) prices, resulting in losses when input costs were higher and profits when raw material prices were lower. They posted a combined net loss of Rs 21,201.18 crore during April-September 2022 despite accounting for Rs 22,000 crore announced but not paid LPG subsidy for the previous two years. Subsequent softening of international prices and government giving out LPG subsidies helped IOC and BPCL post annualised profit for 2022-23, but HPCL was in the red. In FY24, things changed dramatically, and the three firms posted record earnings.

After record profits, state-owned fuel retailers Indian Oil, BPCL and HPCL see profit slump in Q1

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Brent crude has fallen below a key threshold of $70 per barrel, and analysts expect it to fall further.</li><li>Falling oil prices lessen the odds of a US recession, market veteran Ed Yardeni said.</li></ul>Oil prices are on the retreat, a welcome sight for those anxious about a US downturn.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> crude, the international benchmark, dropped as low as $68.78 a barrel on Tuesday. That puts the commodity at its <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-outlook-supply-demand-break-down-record-us-production-2024-9">lowest level in three years</a>, breaking past a key threshold of $70 per barrel.Although falling prices might spell trouble for oil producers who hinge on the product, it could ease the chances of a US recession, one economist wrote.According to Ed Yardeni, the impact is multi-pronged:First, falling oil prices depreciate the dollar, as fewer greenbacks are necessary to import barrels. As the dollar declines, US exports typically rise.Meanwhile, cheaper energy reduces cost burdens in manufacturing, construction, and agriculture, Yardeni said. It also boosts consumer spending, as Americans are less restricted by prices at the pump."All that reduces the chances of a US recession," the Yardeni Research president said in a note on Wednesday.Some on Wall Street expect the price rout to deepen, going as far as $60 a barrel by 2025.This is a "high conviction" forecast for Citigroup's Max Layton, who told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-09-11/citigroup-s-layton-sees-average-60-oil-price-in-2025-video">Bloomberg</a> that oversupply conditions will continue to dent prices."The market just simply got closer to D-Day, really — to that kind of big surplus that we've been forecasting for some time," the Global Head of Commodities Research said. "I would say the market is trying to send a strong signal to OPEC that there's no room for any more barrels."In its latest monthly report, the cartel <a target="_blank" href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm">cut its outlook</a> on oil demand, as Chinese consumption slows. Daily global demand is now set to grow by 2 million barrels per day this year, or 80,000 barrels less than previously expected.According to Bank of America, China has accounted for roughly 45% of global liquid consumption since 2001. Yet a disappointing post-pandemic recovery — coupled with the rising popularity of electric vehicles in the country — has chipped at this trend.The bank anticipates next year's global oil demand to fall to 1.1 million barrels per day. With more production coming online from non-OPEC countries, BofA expects an oil surplus of 730,000 barrels per day next year.In a note published last week, it expects Brent to trade at $75 per barrel through 2025.

You Searched For "crude oil impact" and got 9 results

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After record profits, state-owned fuel retailers Indian Oil, BPCL and HPCL see profit slump in Q1

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