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<p class="drop-cap">In the vast rural expanses of Southwest Virginia, Democrats were once at the top of the political pecking order. For decades, Rick Boucher, a Blue Dog Democrat, represented the Commonwealth's conservative 9th congressional district, consistently winning over voters who were increasingly supporting Republicans at the presidential level. First elected in 1982, Boucher won most of his House races rather handily — in 2008, he even ran unopposed in the general election.</p><p>However, by 2010, the headwinds against Democrats had become too much to overcome, with Boucher losing his reelection bid to Republican H. Morgan Griffith. Across the country, a multitude of rural Democrats — which included House stalwarts like Reps. Chet Edwards of Texas and Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota — were defeated. Fueled by the Tea Party backlash against then-President Barack Obama, Republicans picked up 63 House seats and gained six seats in the Senate, winning control of the lower chamber in the process.</p><p>In 2012, Democrats had a strong showing in rural America. Obama won Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — which all have substantial rural populations — in his successful reelection campaign. And Sherrod Brown of Ohio, <keyword id="12764877" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="heidi-heitkamp" source="Orion">Heidi Heitkamp</keyword> of North Dakota, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Jon Tester of Montana won their respective Senate races that year. Heitkamp — who served as state attorney general from 1992 to 2000 — won her Senate race by roughly one percent even as Obama was losing North Dakota by nearly 20 percentage points. In the upper chamber, she struck a bipartisan tone, relentlessly advocating for rural issues like <a href="https://www.energy.senate.gov/2015/5/s-1306-energy-independence-investment-act-of-2015">energy independence</a> and <a href="https://www.wmuk.org/post/im-over-moon-obama-brought-broadband-sen-heitkamp-says#stream/0">broadband access</a>. However, in 2018, she lost her reelection bid to then-Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer.</p><p>After years of declines in rural America, Democrats are now facing the real possibility of losing their House and Senate majorities next year over what many see as a failure to address pocketbook issues; the feeling has contributed to a sense of abandonment among many rural Americans, including many voters who backed Democratic candidates in the past. Heitkamp is one of several individuals with a knowledge of rural issues who spoke to Insider and have sounded alarm bells over Democrats' missteps. In assessing why Democratic support continues to falter in rural areas, Heitkamp said that the decline in ticket-splitting has been a major component. "I think people in general have gotten more tribal," she said. "The willingness for Democrats to vote for Republicans is diminished and vice versa."</p><p>With Democrats facing electoral catastrophe if they don't improve their standing in rural America — virtually shutting them out from representing an entire swath of voters in an increasingly-divided country — what factors are at play as the party tries to counter GOP electoral ascendancy in the countryside?</p><div type="image" title="Glenn Youngkin" height="2679" width="4016" msid="88360987" hostid="261"></div><h2>Republicans are maximizing their vote in rural counties</h2><p>In 2008 and 2012, Obama won numerous rural counties in the Midwest — powering him to victories in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. However, when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ran for president in 2016, her margins dropped considerably in rural areas, dooming her candidacy in all four states. Last year, now-President Joe Biden improved on Clinton's performance in some areas, but it wasn't enough to flip Iowa and Ohio. Then-President Donald Trump defeated Biden by a 53%-45% margin in both states.</p><p>The Virginia gubernatorial election in November saw Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/virginia-governor-election-terry-mcauliffe-vs-glenn-youngkin-live-results-2021-11">lead</a> Republicans to statewide victories — despite the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/virginia-governor-race-terry-mcauliffe-glenn-youngkin-biden-democrats-trump-2021-10">growth</a> in the state's Democratic-leaning urban and suburban counties — in large part from overperformance among <keyword id="12764876" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="rural-voters" source="Orion">rural voters</keyword>. In Southwest Virginia's Tazewell County, Youngkin beat Democratic gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe by a 87%-13% spread, netting over 10,000 votes in the process. In neighboring Buchanan County, which was ancestrally Democratic, Youngkin defeated McAuliffe 85%-15%, netting over 4,000 votes. The scene was repeated across Virginia's most conservative locales, with huge turnouts in jurisdictions that Trump won last year.</p><p>Ben Tribbett, a Virginia-based Democratic strategist, told Insider that without concerted voter outreach in the countryside, the party could face deeper losses in future election cycles.</p><p>"I've been asked before, 'What's the lowest we can go in a place like Buchanan County and if we have hit rock bottom?' And the answer is zero," he said. "You would think that this happening cycle after cycle would cause the <keyword id="12134721" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="democratic-party" source="Orion">Democratic Party</keyword> to get out there and go ask voters why and find out how we get them back. But instead, what I've seen happen on the consultant side is because the suburbs are growing, they just say, 'Don't worry about it. We'll go pick up the votes elsewhere.' And I think those people hear that message."</p><div type="image" title="Creigh Deeds" height="1909" width="3000" msid="88360991" hostid="261"></div><h2>'Showing up is a big part of getting the job done'</h2><p>When Virginia state Sen. R. <keyword id="12764878" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="creigh-deeds" source="Orion">Creigh Deeds</keyword> was first elected to the House of Delegates in 1991, the chamber had been controlled by Democrats for the entirety of the 20th century. Deeds grew up in rural Bath County, which borders West Virginia and overwhelmingly backed Trump in 2020 and Youngkin in last month's gubernatorial race.</p><p>As one of the few rural Democrats left in the legislature and the party's nominee for attorney general in 2005 and governor in 2009, Deeds knows the ins-and-outs of state <keyword id="11893346" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="politics" source="Orion">politics</keyword> and keeps a pulse on his district — which is a world away from the state's densely-populated economic centers of northern Virginia, metropolitan Richmond, and Hampton Roads. When asked why Democrats have struggled with retaining rural support, he pointed to three "simple and complex" issues.</p><p>"In politics, showing up is a big part of getting the job done ... you've got to show up," he told Insider. "In Virginia, no successful Democratic statewide candidate has focused on rural areas since Mark Warner ran for governor in '01 and for the Senate in '08. Number two, you can just say it's a cultural divide between traditional rural voters and the rest of Virginia. But the third thing is that Virginia has changed so much. There's been a general outmigration of voters from rural areas."</p><p>Sen. Mark Warner — while running for governor in 2001 — made a concerted effort to attract rural voters, sponsoring a driver in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series and <a href="https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1323332800360177665">releasing</a> a bluegrass jingle for his campaign. In 2008, he won 65% of the statewide vote in his first Senate race and swept Southwest Virginia at the same time that Obama won 53% of the statewide vote. Even when Warner was narrowly reelected in 2014 in what was a tough year for Democrats nationally, he was able to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/as-virginias-demographics-have-changed-so-has-mark-warners-campaign-approach/2014/08/07/29902c22-1115-11e4-9285-4243a40ddc97_story.html">carve out</a> enough support in rural Virginia to win with 49% of the statewide vote.</p><p>When asked about the importance of messaging, Deeds spoke of the disconnect that sometimes exists among politicians who back policies that are advantageous to rural residents and actual voter behavior.</p><p>"It's Democrats that — in the legislature and in Congress — vote for things like broadband funding, which absolutely can revolutionize the <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword> in rural Virginia and rural America," he said. "It's Democrats that vote for job training that both improve education funding and create more opportunities for community colleges. All of this seems to benefit rural areas, but the communication is not there and it's very frustrating to me. And I'll take part of the blame. We just don't do a good enough job of effectively communicating our successes and concerns to voters in rural parts of the state and rural parts of the country."</p><div type="image" title="Heidi Heitkamp" height="2673" width="3564" msid="88360996" hostid="261"></div><h2>Democrats have largely become an urban-suburban party</h2><p>Over the past decade, the Democratic electoral coalition — powered by its strength in cities — has grown to include suburban localities like DuPage County outside Chicago and Gwinnett County near Atlanta that for decades had overwhelmingly backed Republicans. However, these gains aren't enough to offset losses elsewhere. With moderate Democrats like Reps. Cheri Bustos of Illinois and Ron Kind of Wisconsin retiring from rural-based House seats next year — along with Republicans holding <keyword id="11940458" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="redistricting" source="Orion">redistricting</keyword> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reviews/out?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fdemocrats-hunt-for-redistricting-wins-despite-gop-tilt-11632475800">advantages</a> in 20 of the 35 states where legislatures possess the ability to draw multiple districts — further erosion in the countryside could flip the lower chamber to the GOP. And the 2024 presidential election could <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-2024-white-house-announcement-probably-after-midterms-republicans-2021-11">feature</a> Trump, who was able to activate millions of rural voters in his 2016 and 2020 campaigns.</p><p>As Heitkamp explained, failing to include rural voters in the party's overall vision will only exacerbate the political divide. She said that Democrats should focus on crafting a clear economic message regarding the president's expansive <keyword id="12054670" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="build-back-better" source="Orion">Build Back Better</keyword> Act, emphasizing that universal pre-K, daycare, and paid family leave should be top priorities because the policies would allow more women to rejoin the workforce and increase productivity across the board.</p><p>To that end, Heitkamp in 2019 launched the <a href="https://onecountryproject.com/">One Country Project</a> — a nonprofit devoted to addressing rural issues and bringing rural voters back to the Democratic Party — alongside former Sen. Joe Donnelly of Indiana.</p><p>"I did pretty well in rural areas when I ran in '12, but now we've seen kind of a realignment," she said. "I think there's been a focus on urban issues and suburban issues. The more those focuses have switched for the Democratic Party, the more rural America says, 'Well, I don't see me in this. I don't see you concerned about what I care about.'"</p>

Democrats' disconnect with rural America is getting so deep it may jeopardize their razor-thin chances for 2022 and 2024

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source">Getty Images</p><p class="caption">Creigh Deeds</p></div><p></p></div></div>The son of a Virginia state senator who police said died from an "apparent" self-inflicted gunshot wound on Tuesday had a mental-health evaluation on Monday, according to a <a href="http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/deeds-stabbed-multiple-times-son-died-at-scene/article_431e61ca-5128-11e3-944a-001a4bcf6878.html" target="_blank">report in The Richmond Times-Dispatch</a>.</p>
<p>But he was released because "<span>no psychiatric bed was available," <span>Dennis Cropper, executive director of the Rockbridge County Community Services Board, told the paper.</span></span></p>
<p>Virginia state<span> police Sgt. Mike King told reporters that Gus Deeds died from an apparent self-inflicted wound, in an incident in which Virginia state Sen. Creigh Deeds, his father, was stabbed multiple times.</span></p>
<p><span>Spokeswoman <span>Corinne Geller said at an afternoon press conference that Gus and his father, Virginia state Sen. Creigh Deeds, were the only people inside the residence at the time of the incident. Police responded to the incident at 7:25 a.m. Tuesday morning. Creigh Deeds suffered serious injuries and is being treated at the <span>University of Virginia Medical Center.</span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span>Geller said that police are not looking for any suspects in the incident, but that the "motive and sequence of events are still under investigation."</span><span><br /></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span>Cropper didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. He told the Times-Dispatch that Gus Deeds was evaluated Monday at <span>Bath County hospital before he had to be released.</span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span>Gus Deeds was one of four children that Creigh Deeds had with his first wife. He had attended the <span>College of William &amp; Mary but recently withdrew, the college said in a statement.</span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span>"He withdrew from the College last month and was not currently enrolled at the time of his death. Our hearts go out to the entire Deeds family," said Ginger Ambler, a spokeswoman.</span></span></span></span></span></p>

REPORT: Virginia State Senator's Son Had A Mental Health Evaluation The Day Before He Died In An Apparent Suicide

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source">Getty Images</p><p class="caption">Creigh Deeds</p></div><p></p></div></div><keyword id="23461" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Virginia">Virginia</keyword> state Sen. Creigh Deeds was released from the hospital Friday morning, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/creigh-deeds-stabbed-son-dead-gus-shooting-2013-11" target="_blank">three days after he was stabbed by his son Gus</a>, who subsequently shot himself.</p>
<p>After being released from the hospital, Deeds sent out a heart-wrenching <a href="https://twitter.com/CreighDeeds/status/403922294994501633" target="_blank">tweet</a>.</p>
<p><span>"I am alive so must live. Some wounds won't heal. Your prayers and your friendship are important to me," he said. </span></p>
<p><span><span>Virginia State Police spokeswoman Corinne Geller said Wednesday that police are investigating the incident as an attempted murder/suicide. They determined Creigh and Gus Deeds had an "altercation" that led to Deeds being stabbed multiple times in the head and torso, according to police releases.</span></span></p>
<p><span><span>Deeds left the scene on foot and was picked up by a cousin who spotted him while driving on Virginia's Route 42. He was airlifted to the University of Virginia Medical Center.</span></span></p>
<p><span><span>Dennis Cropper, executive director of the Rockbridge County Community Services Board, said in a statement that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/gus-deeds-creigh-son-mental-health-evaluation-released-2013-11" target="_blank">Gus Deeds had a mental-health evaluation on Monday</a>, the day before the incident. He was released because no psychiatric beds were available.</span></span></p>
<p>Gus Deeds was one of four children Creigh Deeds had with his first wife. He had attended the College of William &amp; Mary but recently withdrew, the college said in a statement.</p>
<p>"He withdrew from the College last month and was not currently enrolled at the time of his death. Our hearts go out to the entire Deeds family," said Ginger Ambler, a spokeswoman.</p>

Virginia State Senator Stabbed By Son Is Released From The Hospital

<p class="drop-cap">F</p><p>ormer <keyword id="11918128" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="virginia" source="Orion">Virginia</keyword> Gov. <keyword id="11972414" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="terry-mcauliffe" source="Orion">Terry McAuliffe</keyword> <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/rubycramer/governor-superlative">once wrestled</a> a 280-pound alligator to secure a $15,000 campaign donation for President Jimmy Carter's 1980 reelection campaign. In 2009, the former Democratic National Committee Chairman <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/09/AR2009060903020.html">ran unsuccessfully</a> for his party's gubernatorial nomination, but came back to win the nomination - and the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-day-2013-results-virginia-new-jersey-new-york-city-mcauliffe-christie-de-blasio-2013-11">governorship</a> - four years later. During his time in the Executive Mansion from 2014 to 2018, McAuliffe faced a solidly-conservative <keyword id="11917127" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gop" source="Orion">GOP</keyword> legislature <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/mcauliffe-poised-to-set-the-record-most-vetoes-by-a-virginia-governor/2017/03/22/6141e204-0e6b-11e7-9d5a-a83e627dc120_story.html">that was resistant</a> to many of his legislative proposals. However, as the longtime Democratic power broker seeks to win his old job back in the November general election, he faces a test unlike any that he's encountered in the past - with his race serving as a barometer of the current political alignment of the Old Dominion.</p><p>Democrats have been ascendant in the state for over a decade now - with key wins that included former President Barack Obama's 2008 and 2012 victories, Ralph Northam's 2017 gubernatorial victory against former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie, the party <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/virginia-election-results-winners-losers-democrats-legislature-flip-2019-11">taking full control</a> of the state legislature after the 2019 elections, and now-President Joe Biden's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/virginia-presidential-election-2020-live-vote-counts-results-2020">double-digit triumph</a> against then-President <keyword id="11914386" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="donald-trump" source="Orion">Donald Trump</keyword> last fall.</p><p>Republicans - who in recent years have nominated a string of candidates that struggled with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/08/07/northern-virginia-governor-elections-republican/">the ever-growing suburban vote</a> - have not won a statewide race in Virginia since 2009. But this year, GOP delegates nominated <keyword id="11972415" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="glenn-youngkin" source="Orion">Glenn Youngkin</keyword>, a former private equity executive and first-time political candidate who has so far been able to speak to conservative issues in way that has united the party's business class and its dominant Trump wing. The Republican approach, along with Biden's <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrsts-virginia-governor/2021/09/29/47f3099a-2135-11ec-9309-b743b79abc59_story.html">slumping numbers</a> in the state, have made the Virginia election a real race in the closing weeks of the campaign.</p><p>Despite the state's recent Democratic-leaning orientation, Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Va., told Insider that there still remains a strong GOP base of reliable supporters. "Republicans consistently turn out a million or a little over a million voters consistently, even when they've lost massively," he said.</p><p>With the dominant <keyword id="12134721" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="democratic-party" source="Orion">Democratic Party</keyword> facing an energized GOP, what do the dynamics of the electorate reveal about Virginia's political identity?</p><div type="image" title="Henrico voter" height="3054" width="5100" msid="87001014" hostid="261"></div><h2>The importance of the suburban vote can't be overstated</h2><p>From the 1970s through the 1990s, Republican presidential victories in Virginia were powered by the state's fast-growing suburban areas in northern Virginia, the Richmond metropolitan area, and Hampton Roads, which form the core of the vote-rich "Golden Crescent." However, from the late 2000s through the last decade, many suburban localities, including populous Loudoun, Prince William, and Henrico counties, began to support Democrats on the presidential level. This shift, which was already ongoing as the GOP became more ideologically conservative, was exacerbated by Trump's deep unpopularity in these suburbs, which are filled with college-educated moderates and <keyword id="12307384" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="independent-voters" source="Orion">independent voters</keyword> who have become more receptive to Democratic messaging. Minority voters, notably Black, Latino, and Asian residents, are also increasingly becoming a part of the suburban electoral calculus.</p><p>In northern Virginia, where McAuliffe and Youngkin both reside, Democrats have had striking success in recent election cycles. In 2019, northern Virginia boasted a population of 2.8 million residents and the region's votes made up 32% of the total statewide count in last year's presidential election, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/08/07/northern-virginia-governor-elections-republican/">according to The Washington Post</a>. The party handily carried the region by 32% in the 2017 gubernatorial election won by Northam, who is term-limited and ineligible to run for reelection. By running for a second, nonconsecutive term in office, McAuliffe is hoping to pull off a rare feat in Virginia - the last governor elected to two terms was Mills Godwin, who served in office from 1966 to 1970 as a Democrat and from 1974 to 1978 as a Republican.</p><p><a href="https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2021-10-08.html">A recent poll released by the Wason Center</a> on Oct. 8 showed McAuliffe ahead of Youngkin 49%-45% with likely voters - the survey had a margin of error of 4.2%. In the same poll, Youngkin led among independents by a 50%-41% margin.</p><p>J. Miles Coleman, the associate editor of <a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/home/">Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics</a>, which <a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-sept-22-2021/">currently classifies</a> the race as "leans Democratic," told Insider that Youngkin has a compelling personal story as a native Virginian who earned a basketball scholarship to play at Rice University and went on to earn an MBA at Harvard before eventually <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/glenn-youngkin-fortune-carlyle-virginia/2021/08/02/aeeebab4-efc5-11eb-81d2-ffae0f931b8f_story.html">amassing a fortune</a> of over $300 million at the helm of the Carlyle Group. "The Republicans have a fairly attractive candidate in Youngkin," he said. "He's not hated as much Trump is here, that's for sure. He kind of has an uplifting life story, and I think he's probably better positioned to appeal to some of those <keyword id="12307383" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="suburban-voters" source="Orion">suburban voters</keyword> who used to be Republicans but now vote for Democrats. He has tried to touch on some themes of law and order with a softer edge than Ed Gillespie ... at this time four years ago we were talking about MS-13," a reference to the violent street gang.</p><div type="image" title="Glenn Youngkin" height="2652" width="3977" msid="87001018" hostid="261"></div><h2>McAuliffe has been unable to cast Youngkin as unacceptable to swing voters</h2><p>Republicans are bullish on their support among some of the very same independents who have backed Democrats like Northam and Biden, along with lawmakers like Sens. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine. McAuliffe has consistently sought to tie Youngkin to Trump, as well as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-elections-virginia-election-2020-general-elections-550fffc55ccc6bdec99ece7b4728ed80">raise concerns</a> about access to abortion in the wake of the implementation of <a href="https://www.insider.com/texas-abortion-ban-people-are-stockpiling-abortion-pills-2021-10">a highly restrictive Texas law</a> that effectively bans the procedure after the sixth week of pregnancy. The former governor has also chided Youngkin for opposing COVID-19 vaccine mandates in an appeal to independents who back such measures. Youngkin, who has been vaccinated, disagrees with the mandates and said last month that getting inoculated is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republican-attacks-on-vaccine-mandates-undercut-crucial-tool-to-combat-pandemic-experts-say/2021/09/20/20efc558-18ad-11ec-b976-f4a43b740aeb_story.html">a personal decision</a>.</p><p>The former governor has also criticized Youngkin for <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/critical-race-theory-virginia-governor-youngkin/2021/10/01/17ad45f0-1cc8-11ec-8380-5fbadbc43ef8_story.html">invoking</a> critical race theory, which examines how America's history of racism continues to reverberate through laws and policies that exist today; it is a discipline that is generally not taught in K-12 schools, but Youngkin <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/critical-race-theory-virginia-governor-youngkin/2021/10/01/17ad45f0-1cc8-11ec-8380-5fbadbc43ef8_story.html">has pledged "ban" it</a> on his first day in office.</p><p>McAuliffe, who is known for being a disciplined campaigner, has had a tough time linking Youngkin to the former president in the minds of many swing voters. Kidd, the Wason director, told Insider that even if Youngkin comes up short in his campaign, he could provide a roadmap for the Virginia GOP as they seek an escape from the political wilderness. "Glenn Youngkin may not win, but Republicans may have found a way to thread the needle between Trumpism and economic conservatism, which they have struggled to do," he said. "Youngkin seems to be walking a tightrope pretty effectively in some ways. He embraces Trump just enough, but not too much, and he distances himself from Trump just enough, but not too much."</p><div type="image" title="Ken Cuccinelli" height="2669" width="4011" msid="87001021" hostid="261"></div><h2>The conservative vote in the state remains influential</h2><p>Despite Democrats currently holding all major statewide offices in Virginia, the GOP still holds 45 out of 100 seats in the House of Delegates and 19 out of 40 seats in the Senate. This year, every House seat is up for grabs, with Democrats angling to retain the majority that they clawed back in 2019. In addition to partisan gerrymandering, a major reason why Democrats struggled to regain control of many suburban-based House districts in the last decade prior to Trump's election was low turnout.</p><p>In 2009, the last year that Democrats lost a gubernatorial election in Virginia, Republicans were eager to elect former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell and he won in a 59%-41% landslide over state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds. Overall turnout that year was 40.4%, <a href="https://www.elections.virginia.gov/resultsreports/registrationturnout-statistics/">according to the Virginia Department of Elections</a>. In 2013, when McAuliffe was elected governor, turnout hit 43%, which provided the lift he needed to defeat then-GOP state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli by a 48%-45% margin. In 2017, Northam beat Gillespie by a 54%-45% spread, with a 47.6% turnout rate fueled by Democratic dissatisfaction with the Trump administration.</p><p>Kidd told Insider that inconsistent Democratic turnout has been a lingering issue for the party. "Democrats flex all over the place with their numbers," he said. "They either turn out 1.4 or 1.5 million voters, or they turn out 800,000. Democratic losses since Obama's election in 2008 have been because they don't show up, and close wins have happened because they don't show up. In 2014, Mark Warner pulled it out [<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/local/va-senate-2014/results/">US Senate race</a>] by the skin of his teeth, and it's because Democrats were sort of chagrined about the state of everything going on in the country."</p><p>While Republicans have faltered in northern Virginia in recent cycles, they still have a solid base of support in many exurban communities in the state, especially in the Richmond area and Hampton Roads, and they continue to dominate in the rural countryside, which includes Southwest Virginia.</p><div type="image" title="McAuliffe Biden" height="2666" width="3999" msid="87001029" hostid="261"></div><h2>The election is inextricably linked to Washington, DC</h2><p>Last fall, Biden captured Virginia and its 13 electoral votes, winning the state by 10 points (54%-44%) in a year where Democrats were especially mobilized against Trump. However, months after the president took office, unexpected turbulence with the administration's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-speech-afghanistan-us-finalizes-withdrawal-2021-8">the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan</a> and a stalled domestic agenda in Congress have removed much of the luster from his numbers.</p><p>In the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/sept-7-13-washington-post-schar-school-virginia-poll/30a01c3f-103a-4cb1-9d62-049d77f5a245/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2">Washington Post-Schar poll</a>, Biden's approval rating in Virginia sat at 46%, with 51% disapproving. During a virtual meeting with supporters last week, CNN <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2021/10/08/virginia-governor-race-biden-mcauliffe-lead-zeleny-dnt-vpx.cnn">reported</a> that McAuliffe mentioned Biden's sagging approval figure in the state. "We are facing a lot of headwinds from Washington, as you know," he said on the call. "The President is unpopular today unfortunately here in Virginia, so we have got to plow through." While the former governor brushed off the comments, the legislative inaction prompted him <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/now/democrat-mcauliffe-says-3-5-010200154.html">to state</a> that the $3.5 trillion price tag for the Democratic-led infrastructure bill was "too high."</p><p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-congress-barack-obama-terry-mcauliffe-only-on-ap-e62b4ea2dd8ba18ff5e9930ad895258a">During a Tuesday interview</a> with The Associated Press, McAuliffe called on Democratic lawmakers in Washington, DC, to "do your job" and do "whatever it takes" to pass substantive legislation. "They got to get their work done," he told the news agency. "People are counting on them."</p><p>In a state filled with federal workers and military veterans, residents are very much attuned to what emanates from the nation's capital, and McAuliffe clearly wants to see results, Coleman told Insider. "From his perspective, he just wants something passed," he said. "He wants to at least have the perception that Biden is able to pass his priorities. I think you'll see some Democrats across the country kind of trim their sails like him and say, 'We just want something that we can show the voters and say that this was what we've done.'"</p>

The Virginia governor's race is shaping up as a test of the state's Democratic strength and Biden

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source">Getty Images</p><p class="caption">Creigh Deeds hugs his son, Gus, in 2009.</p></div><p></p></div></div>Virginia state Sen. Creigh Deeds, a former Democratic candidate for governor, has been critically wounded after he was stabbed in his home this morning, <a href="http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/sen-deeds-critically-wounded-son-dead-from-gunshot-wound/article_431e61ca-5128-11e3-944a-001a4bcf6878.html" target="_blank">The Richmond Times-Dispatch is reporting</a>. The paper is also reporting that Deeds' son, Gus, is dead from a gunshot wound. </p>
<p>A Bath County Sheriff's Department spokeswoman told Business Insider that there has been an "incident at a residence in Bath County." Both county and state police are on scene. </p>
<p>Police have no further details at this time. </p>
<p><em>This is a developing story. Check back for updates. </em></p>

You Searched For "creigh deeds" and got 5 results

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The Virginia governor's race is shaping up as a test of the state's Democratic strength and Biden

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