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<keyword id="20207838" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dsp-mutual-fund" source="keywords">DSP Mutual Fund</keyword>'s September 2024 Netra report credits <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s strong economic recovery to increased fiscal expenditure. The report, which tracks current economic trends and market insights through various charts, emphasizes the need for the private corporate sector and households to play a larger role in sustaining the ongoing growth momentum. Netra also pointed out an unsettling calm in the markets, with the Nifty 50 TRI index maintaining an impressive 53-month streak without a 5% decline and 13 years without a drop greater than 10%. Sahil Kapoor, Head of Products and Market Strategist, DSP Mutual Fund, said, "The calm in the markets, marked by an unnerving lack of volatility, is a double-edged sword. While it provides a sense of stability, it also masks underlying risks that could surface unexpectedly, catching investors off guard. To ensure a sustainable recovery, there is a need for the private sector and households to take the lead, transforming fiscal stimulus into lasting economic growth." However, the report notes a shift in market dynamics, with the momentum factor, which has outperformed since the COVID-19 bottom, beginning to lose its dominance. At the same time, the quality factor, which had underperformed over the last four years, is now seeing a resurgence, potentially indicating a change in market leadership that could favour quality-orientated funds, both active and passive. The report highlights the critical role government spending has played in the recovery, with a focus on capital investments crucial for future growth. However, contributions from the private corporate sector and households have lagged. It also draws attention to a slowdown in India's per capita consumption, approaching lows seen in previous cycles. Given that consumption accounts for around 60% of GDP, it is vital that this sector grows at a rate exceeding GDP growth to stimulate private capital expenditure. India's <keyword id="487578" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-collections" source="Orion">tax collections</keyword> have demonstrated robust growth, with gross tax revenue showing a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14 %. This growth, largely driven by <keyword id="6354751" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="income-tax" source="Orion">income tax</keyword>, indicates a rising dependency on capital gains and stock market performance, introducing new vulnerabilities to the economy. The banking and financial services sector (<keyword id="19910880" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bfsi" source="keywords">BFSI</keyword>) has emerged as a key driver of market earnings, recording a 12 % increase in profit after tax (PAT) growth, significantly outpacing the 4.6 % growth observed in non-BFSI Nifty 50 companies. This disparity underscores the sector's importance in India's economic story and highlights promising investment opportunities.

India's strong economic recovery is led by fiscal expenditure: DSP MF

For most of us, heading out used to be an everyday ritual, but COVID-19 has left an unexpected impact — many people are staying home more often, and this shift might just be the “new normal.” A recent study reveals that, compared to pre-pandemic life, people are spending almost an hour less each day on activities outside the home. Additionally, people are spending about 12 fewer minutes a day on travel. Researchers analysed a survey of 34,000 Americans, finding that this trend toward staying home reflects a larger shift that had already begun but has accelerated significantly due to COVID-19. The study shows a lasting change: while some out-of-home activities have slightly bounced back since the peak of the pandemic in 2021, Americans are still spending about 53 minutes less outside the home than they did in 2019. In 2023, the amount of time people spend outside remains considerably lower than before the pandemic, with <keyword id="23763147" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="in-home-activities" source="keywords">in-home activities</keyword> taking up more of the day. <h2>The new routine</h2>This drop in out-of-home time is partly due to more people working and shopping from home. The study found a marked decrease in out-of-home activities like work and shopping. With <keyword id="20665553" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="remote-work" source="keywords">remote work</keyword> becoming more popular and online shopping more efficient than in-person errands, people are finding fewer reasons to go out. The researchers suggest that cities may need to rethink their policies around commercial and residential spaces, relaxing restrictions on converting offices into housing and creating more space for delivery services rather than traditional commuter parking. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="114823699" title="Uber drops after its bookings results and forecast fail to impress" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>The authors of the study see this as an opportunity for cities to embrace a new role as “centers of consumption.” Since office workers are no longer essential to urban economies, central cities may focus more on their appeal as hubs for recreation, culture, and dining — areas that can attract residents who choose to live in more urban settings. This shift could also make cities more affordable by reducing housing and transport costs. Technology advancements played a significant role in this new preference for staying in. During the pandemic, people adapted quickly to working, socialising, and even exercising at home. For example, sales of <keyword id="20751231" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="home-gym" source="keywords">home gym</keyword> equipment surged, and now many people are working out at home rather than visiting gyms. Meanwhile, activities like TV watching did not rise post-pandemic as much as one might expect, with only a brief increase in screen time at the height of COVID. <h2>Less commuting, fewer emissions</h2>The study also shows a continued decrease in travel time, which initially dropped due to fewer commutes. Even as the world reopens, travel hasn’t bounced back completely, indicating that people are limiting outings beyond work as well. This decrease in driving and public transport use could have <keyword id="21198065" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="environmental-benefits" source="keywords">environmental benefits</keyword>, including lower emissions and fuel consumption. However, it raises questions about the potential downsides of extended time at home, such as <keyword id="20787438" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="social-isolation" source="keywords">social isolation</keyword>. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="114822872" title="I&amp;#39;m an American who&amp;#39;s lived in South Korea for 10 years. Here are 9 things I don&amp;#39;t miss about the US." mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>As more people choose to stay in, the researchers suggest that cities may need to adapt by focusing less on peak travel demands and more on pedestrian and cyclist safety, as well as accessible services for lower-income residents. These adaptations could improve urban life, particularly in dense areas where the need for safer and more walkable spaces is high. The study’s authors point out that, although this trend toward “cocooning” at home has been growing for years, the pandemic has caused a much steeper drop than expected. Moving forward, cities and communities may need to embrace this new lifestyle by designing policies and spaces that cater to a society that prefers staying home— whether it’s about creating vibrant urban hubs or ensuring services are available to all residents. While only time will tell if this trend endures, one thing is clear: staying in has reshaped our daily lives and could change the face of our cities in the years to come. The findings of this research have been published in the Journal of the American Planning Association and can be accessed <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2024.2385327">here</a>.

The COVID-19 pandemic has made people more reluctant to go out, study finds

A recent <a href="https://academic.oup.com/mnrasl/article/535/1/L18/7760380">study</a> has revealed an unexpected consequence of the global lockdowns imposed in 2020 to curb the spread of COVID-19: a measurable cooling of the <keyword id="19899207" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="moon" source="keywords">Moon</keyword>'s surface. Indian researchers from the <keyword id="20178202" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Physical-Research-Laboratory" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Physical Research Laboratory" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Physical Research Laboratory">Physical Research Laboratory</keyword> (PRL) analysed night-time temperatures at six different locations on the Moon's near side between 2017 and 2023. Using data from NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, they discovered a consistent temperature drop of 8-10 Kelvin during the strictest lockdown period of April-May 2020 compared to previous years. For instance, the coldest temperature was recorded in 2020, with a value of 96.2 K at one location. In contrast, post-lockdown years like 2021 and 2022 saw a gradual warming trend as human activity resumed. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111772552" title="Newly discovered Moon caves could shelter astronauts as they set up lunar bases!" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>The researchers posit that this unusual cooling can be attributed to a reduction in Earth's outgoing radiation during the lockdowns. As human activity slowed down, <keyword id="20107362" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="greenhouse-gas-emissions" source="keywords">greenhouse gas emissions</keyword> and aerosols decreased significantly. This meant less heat was trapped and re-emitted by Earth's atmosphere, resulting in a measurable decrease in the radiation reaching the Moon. Further, the Moon's surface acts as an amplifier of Earth's radiation signature. And this unique global event provided a rare opportunity to observe how changes in human activity on Earth can affect our nearest celestial neighbour. While the study presents a compelling correlation, the authors acknowledge that more data is needed to definitively establish the link between Earth's radiation changes and <keyword id="23366659" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="lunar-surface-temperatures" source="keywords">lunar surface temperatures</keyword>. They suggest that future Moon-based observatories could play a crucial role in studying Earth's climate and environmental shifts. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112222991" title="Scientists want to send our endangered species to the Moon to “save” them" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>This unexpected finding highlights the interconnectedness of our solar system and the far-reaching impacts of human activities on our planet. As we continue to grapple with the challenges of <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword>, understanding these subtle interactions between Earth and the Moon can provide valuable insights into our planet's complex systems. (With inputs from TOI)

The Covid lockdowns did WHAT to the Moon?!

In line with the moderation in <keyword id="513422" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="Orion">retail inflation</keyword>, wholesale <keyword id="158363" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="inflation-in-india" source="Orion">inflation in India</keyword> too witnessed a sharp decline in July. The annual rate of <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> based on all India <keyword id="59350" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Wholesale-Price-Index" source="Orion">Wholesale Price Index</keyword> (WPI) number is 2.04 per cent (provisional) for the month of July, 2024 (over July 2023). It continues to remain in the positive territory for the ninth month after remaining in the negative zone for seven months until October. Economists often say a little rise in <keyword id="280418" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wholesale-inflation" source="Orion">wholesale inflation</keyword> is good as it typically incentivises goods manufacturers to produce more. For food index, which has 24.38 per cent weightage, the rate of wholesale inflation decreased from 8.68 per cent in June, 2024 to 3.55 per cent in July. The increase last month was largely due to higher prices in various categories including food articles, manufacture of food products, crude petroleum and natural gas, mineral oils, and other manufacturing sectors. The government releases index numbers of <keyword id="116267" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wholesale-prices" source="Orion">wholesale prices</keyword> on a monthly basis on the 14th of every month (or the next working day). The index numbers are compiled with data received from institutional sources and selected manufacturing units across the country. In April last year, the wholesale inflation went into negative territory. Similarly, in the initial days of COVID-19, in July 2020, the WPI was reported negative. Overall wholesale inflation was 8.39 per cent in October 2022 and has fallen since then. Notably, the wholesale price index (WPI)--based inflation had been in double digits for 18 months in a row till September 2022. Meanwhile, India's retail inflation, after breaching 5 per cent in June, softened drastically in July. According to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, retail inflation or Consumer Price Index in July was at 3.54 per cent, which is the lowest in the last 59 months. In June, taking a departure from the moderation it witnessed in the past months, it rose to 5.08 per cent, pushed by rising food prices. Food inflation for July 2024 is the lowest since June 2023. Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) number is 5.42 per cent (Provisional) for the month of July, 2024. The corresponding inflation rate for rural and urban is 5.89 per cent and 4.63 per cent, respectively. Rising food prices continued to be a headache for Indian consumers with the inflation rate in the food segment almost doubling year-on-year in June. Food prices continue to remain a pain point for the policymakers in India, who wish to bring retail inflation to 4 per cent on a sustainable basis. However the latest retail inflation data showed the overall inflation has aligned with the intended target. Inflation has been a concern for many countries, including advanced economies, but India has largely managed to steer its inflation trajectory quite well. The eased month-on-month retail inflation, barring June, came on the heels of RBI having maintained the status quo in the repo rate for the ninth straight occasion. Barring the recent pauses, the RBI has raised the repo rate by 250 basis points cumulatively since May 2022 in the fight against inflation. Raising interest rates is a monetary policy instrument that typically helps suppress demand in the economy, thereby helping the inflation rate decline. The repo rate is the rate of interest at which the RBI lends to other banks.

Amid declining retail inflation, wholesale inflation in India moderates to 2.04% in July

Foreign investors have withdrawn nearly Rs 20,000 crore from Indian stock markets in just five trading days (November 4–8), continuing a trend of large-scale selling that began last month. Experts say investors are now moving their money to China, largely due to the high valuations presently prevailing in Indian markets. In early November, FPIs have offloaded as much as Rs 19,994 crore in Indian markets. The month prior, i.e., October, was one of the worst months in terms of foreign outflows, with FPIs making a net withdrawal of Rs 94,017 crore. Before this, Indian markets faced such a situation during the pandemic, when FPIs withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. <h2>Why Are Investors Leaving? </h2>According to Himanshu Srivastava of Morningstar Investment Research India, two main factors are driving this exodus. First is China's renewed appeal due to lower stock valuations and new economic stimulus measures. In a bid to nudge the domestic economy and bail state governments, China recently approved a 10-trillion yuan (US $1.4 trillion) package. Per reports, approximately 60% of this stimulus focuses on allowing local governments to refinance the mountain of debt on them. Srivastava explains foreign investors are also flocking to US dollar and Treasury yields, which have appreciated significantly in the recent past, leading FPIs to anticipate a stronger US economy going ahead. Moreover, high valuations in Indian markets are discouraging foreign investors from putting more money in the economy. As a result, over the past week, the selling pressure eroded Rs 74,563 crore in market value for Reliance Industries, while Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank lost Rs 26,274 crore and Rs 22,254 crore, respectively. The combined market valuation of six of the top 10 most-valued firms dipped by Rs 1,55,721.12 crore last week. <h2> Silver linings</h2>Despite the ongoing outflux of funds since last month, November also saw unprecedented applications of about 40–50 new FPI registrations, which are eyeing to enter the Indian market. This was due to markets SEBIs recent relaxation to NRIs, permitting them to participate up to 100% and announcing measures for ease of entry and operations in India. On the other hand, FPIs invested Rs 599 crore in the debt general limit and Rs 2,896 crore in the debt voluntary retention route (VRR) during the period under review. So far this year, FPIs have invested Rs 1.06 lakh crore in the debt market. <li class="whitespace-normal break-words"></li>Going ahead, investors will be looking for certain macroeconomic cues, which include corporate earnings reports, India's inflation (CPI) and industrial production (IIP) data on November 12, the US inflation report on November 13, and wholesale price index (WPI) data on November 14.

FPIs withdraw nearly Rs 20,000 crore from equities in the last 5 trading sessions, make a beeline for China and US

As many as 290 cases of <keyword id="21545939" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="KP-2" source="keywords">KP.2</keyword> and 34 cases of <keyword id="21748081" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="KP-1" source="keywords">KP.1</keyword>, both sub-lineages of COVID-19 that are responsible for surge in cases in Singapore, have been found in India, according to official data. However, a source in the Union health ministry told PTI that they are all sub variants of <keyword id="20115417" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="JN1" source="keywords">JN1</keyword> and there is no associated increase in hospitalisation and severe cases. "So there is no reason for concern or panic. The mutations will keep happening at a rapid pace and this is the natural behaviour of viruses like SARS-CoV2," the source said. The source further said that the INSACOG surveillance is sensitive and is able to pick up the emergence of any new variant and samples are also picked from hospitals in a structured manner to detect any change in the severity of disease due to virus. Data compiled by the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) showed that 34 cases of KP.1 have been found across seven states and UTs with 23 cases registered from West Bengal. The other states are Goa (1), Gujarat (2), Haryana (1), Maharashtra (4) Rajasthan (2) and Uttarakhand (1). As many as 290 cases of KP.2 have been registered with Maharashtra reporting the highest number at 148, according to the data. The other states and Union territories are Delhi (1), Goa (12), Gujarat (23), Haryana (3), Karnataka (4), Madhya Pradesh (1), Odisha (17), Rajasthan (21), Uttar Pradesh (8), Uttarakhand (16) and West Bengal (36). Singapore is seeing a new COVID-19 wave as the authorities recorded more than 25,900 cases from May 5 to 11 with KP.1 and KP.2 accounting for over two-thirds of cases in Singapore. Globally, the predominant COVID-19 variants are still JN.1 and its sub-lineages, including KP.1 and KP.2. KP.1 and KP.2 belong to a group of COVID-19 variants scientists have nicknamed 'FLiRT', after the technical names of their mutations. The strains in FLiRT are all descendants of the JN.1 variant, an offshoot of the Omicron variant. KP.2 was classified by the World Health Organization as a Variant Under Monitoring.

290 cases of COVID-19 variant KP.2, 34 cases of KP.1 detected in India: INSACOG data

India's current world-beating economic growth rate on the back of an investment boom resembles that of 2003-07 when growth averaged more than 8 per cent, according to economists at <keyword id="48670" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Morgan-Stanley" source="Orion">Morgan Stanley</keyword>. In a report '<keyword id="20990538" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="The-Viewpoint-India" source="Orion">The Viewpoint: India</keyword> - Why this feels like 2003-07', Morgan Stanley said after a decade of investment to GDP steadily declining, <keyword id="46930" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="capex" source="Orion">capex</keyword> has emerged as a key growth driver in India. "We think the capex cycle has more room to run, therefore the current expansion closely resembles that of 2003-07. The current cycle is driven by investment outperforming consumption, <keyword id="3567420" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="public-capex" source="Orion">public capex</keyword> leading initially but <keyword id="3896912" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-capex" source="Orion">private capex</keyword> rapidly catching up, the urban consumer leading consumption followed by catch-up in rural demand, market share in global exports rising and macro stability risks kept in check. "We think the defining characteristic of the current expansion is the rise in the investment-to-GDP ratio. Similarly, in the 2003-07 cycle investment to GDP rose from 27 per cent in F2003 (fiscal year ending March 2003) to 39 per cent in F2008, which was close to the peak. "Investment to GDP then hovered around those levels until it peaked in F2011. 2011 to 2021 then registered a decade of decline - but the ratio has now inflected again to 34 per cent of GDP and we expect it to rise further to 36 per cent of GDP in F2027E," it said. In 2003-07, the capex boom led to an acceleration in productivity, job creation and income growth. As more labour was absorbed into employment by the strengthening economy, savings to GDP also rose from 28 per cent in F2003 to 39 per cent in F2008. During 2003-07, GDP growth averaged 8.6 per cent and headline CPI inflation averaged 4.8 per cent. The current account balance stayed within the central bank's comfort zone, ranging between 2.8 per cent to -1.4 per cent of GDP on a 4Q trailing sum basis. Even when oil prices shot up to USD 145 per barrel in July 2008, the current account deficit only widened to 2.4 per cent of GDP the following quarter, the research report said. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) growth in India accelerated sharply from 8.2 per cent in 2002 to 17.5 per cent in 2004, and the pace of growth held firm at 16.2 per cent in 2005-07. In that cycle, the fiscal deficit was already consolidated, the banking system's non-performing loan issues were cleaned up and the economy was poised for a capex upswing. "However, the initial pick-up in private consumption growth was more modest, averaging just 4.8 per cent in 2003-04," it said. In the current cycle, real GFCF growth continued to hold strong at 10.5 per cent in October-December, staying above the pre-Covid 2017-18 average of 9.6 per cent. "This has been mainly driven by public capex so far, as the corporate sector has been working through multiple shocks from previous years that have weighed on its ability to invest," it said adding now that corporate profit (based on bottom-up company data) to GDP has picked up from a trough of 1.1 per cent in F2020 to 5.4 per cent in F2023, early signs of private capex gaining momentum are being seen. On the flip side, private consumption is still relatively weak, tracking at just 3.5 per cent in the December quarter, below the pre-Covid 2017-18 average of 6.5 per cent. Morgan Stanley said policymakers' concerted policy push on supply-side reforms in recent years has meant that real government fixed capex growth inflected higher from F2020. Government fixed capex as a percentage of GDP rose from a trough of 3.6 per cent in F2019 to 4.0 per cent in F2021, again picking up ahead of private capex. "A capex-led growth cycle can extend expansion, as rising investment to GDP ratios drive capital deepening and boost productivity growth. The deployment of surplus labor as capex creates employment opportunities can lead to higher income and savings in an economy and ensure the current account balance remains in a manageable range, even as investment to GDP rises," it said adding the public capex-led nature of the present cycle in India plays an even more important role for the sustainability of the overall capex cycle. Infrastructure projects tend to face long gestation periods but generate large positive externalities. "In that sense, we believe it is important for the public sector to undertake such spending to ensure a clearer runway for private capex to take off by eliminating supply-side bottlenecks ahead of time," it added.

India's economic boom feels like 2003-07: Morgan Stanley

<ul class="summary-list"><li>All those Florida transplants might have the ticket to riding out the next possible recession.</li><li>Florida's population growth is boosting the state's economy.</li></ul>People are still <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-states-americans-are-moving-to-florida-texas-california-2023-10">flocking to Florida</a> — and it could help residents ride out a potential economic slowdown.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/links2/html/3a069c29-855f-465a-9981-3032b2e1cbcb">Economists at Wells Fargo</a> wrote in a report published on August 27 that they expect the Sunshine State's economy to fare better than the national average in the case of a slowdown, as strong population growth over the last five years has boosted the state's economic growth.This comes as the Sahm rule — a closely watched recession indicator created by Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist — was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sahm-rule-recession-outlook-indicator-triggered-unemployment-rate-jobs-report-2024-8">triggered on August 2</a> after a surprise jump in US unemployment. To be sure, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sahm-rule-recession-unemployment-federal-reserve-interest-rates-cut-2024-8">economists, including Sahm, are conflicted</a> on whether it's correct this time.Florida's economic growth has outpaced the nation on an annual basis for the past 11 years, according to Wells Fargo. What's more, the state's economy grew at the sixth fastest pace in the nation in the first quarter of this year.Jackie Benson, an economist at Wells Fargo and one of the report's authors, told Business Insider that Florida's growth is due to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-are-people-moving-florida-home-prices-cost-of-living-2023-12">influx of new residents</a>. The state's above-average population growth has helped it outpace the nation in real GDP growth, Benson said.<h2 id="04ae2956-1ac5-4716-86f9-81c069b69280">Population growth insulates the state</h2>Florida had the second-fastest state population growth in 2023, following South Carolina, according to data from the US Commerce Department and Wells Fargo.There were nearly 195,000 domestic movers and 178,000 foreign movers on net relocating to Florida in 2023, according to Wells Fargo. From 2000 to 2019, the average number of domestic relocations to Florida was roughly 140,000.Benson said an influx of residents means more workers in the labor force, more people buying homes, and more people spending money at the grocery store."That creates a feedback loop that kind of insulates an economy from a broader macroeconomic slowdown that might drag certain states down," Benson said. "If you have greater population growth, your chances of growing better through that is increased."Wells Fargo said population growth is a tailwind for Florida, and post-pandemic shifts in migration have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-economy-us-south-texas-florida-houston-dallas-nashville-miami-2023-12">benefited states in the Sun Belt</a>, including the Southeast and Southwest. Nonetheless, Benson said people have been moving into Florida before the COVID-19 pandemic.Business Insider has previously reported on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/moving-from-california-to-florida-pros-cons-weather-politics-facebook-2024-3">movers to Florida</a> from coastal hubs like New York and California."A lot of people are looking for family reasons or homebuying reasons, just quality of life or lower cost of living," Benson said. "That's kind of what drives them down south, and with Florida, it's a lifestyle, too, right? Warmer weather and a more relaxed atmosphere."<h2 id="55f6ca74-0858-43a8-93c2-7d0fc09509e5">Movers to Florida might fare better than the average</h2>Wells Fargo did not forecast an upcoming recession, Benson said. However, it does expect a slowdown."We are expecting momentum to slow," Benson said. "That's largely driven by a deceleration in the labor market that is already starting to happen."Wells Fargo economists noted in the report that Florida's unemployment rate has recently moved higher with national trends and might be losing some momentum but is still "comfortably below" the national average."There are some signs of caution, particularly when it comes to rising unemployment," Benson said. "I don't think Florida will be completely insulated from this slowdown, given that the labor market is showing signs of cracks, but I would expect it to perform better than other states do."In 2023, nearly half of Florida's job gains were concentrated in healthcare, construction, and government. Construction jobs grew 5.1% year over year, the fastest rate of any job in the state.In particular, South Florida is performing well. The Miami metro area was responsible for almost 30% of the state's job gains in 2023, according to Wells Fargo.To be sure, if the country did enter a recession, Florida would be impacted.Job growth in Florida's information and finance sectors lagged in 2023, largely due to high interest rates, according to Wells Fargo. Yet, Benson said she expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September, which would bode well for those industries.One sector most at risk in case of slowdown is Florida's leisure and hospitality sector, however international travelers could help keep it afloat.Are you an entrepreneur in Florida who has seen your business change due to the influx of new residents? This reporter wants to hear from you. Please reach out at <a target="_blank" class="" href="mailto:jtowfighi@businessinsider.com">jtowfighi@businessinsider.com.</a>

People are still flocking to Florida. It could help them ride out a slowdown in the economy. 

Ever since the virus reared its ugly head and briefly sent the world into despair, the coronavirus has remained a staple, albeit almost sidelined, part of the news cycle. Despite this, the topic has come to the forefront of controversy once again, with an extremely popular <keyword id="20040659" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="COVID-19-vaccine" source="keywords">COVID-19 vaccine</keyword> now under scrutiny. Considering that the world is still healing from the scars left behind by the coronavirus tragedy, it is imperative that we gauge the situation to avoid any unwarranted public paranoia. Let’s look at the facts behind the ongoing <keyword id="19910149" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AstraZeneca" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="AstraZeneca" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="AstraZeneca">AstraZeneca</keyword> (or <keyword id="19960109" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="covishield" source="keywords">Covishield</keyword>, as it is known in India) vaccine controversy, and determine if there really is a cause for worry. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="What happened?" comment="subhead" text="What happened?">What happened?</cmsannotation> Shortly after receiving the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine in 2021, UK-based <keyword id="21472612" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jamie-scott" source="keywords">Jamie Scott</keyword> experienced a harrowing ordeal. He developed a brain clot and severe bleeding, resulting in permanent brain injury. This condition, known as <keyword id="21475609" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Thrombosis-with-Thrombocytopenia-Syndrome" source="keywords">Thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome</keyword> (<keyword id="20218859" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tts" source="keywords">TTS</keyword>), can lead to dangerously low blood clot and platelet levels, posing a grave risk to those affected. Jamie's struggles with memory loss, impaired vision, and diminished cognitive abilities compelled him to seek legal recourse against the pharmaceutical company in 2023. Jamie's legal representative contends that AstraZeneca minimized the potential risks linked to their vaccines. Moreover, reports indicate that over 50 vaccinated individuals experienced similar adverse conditions, with numerous cases resulting in fatalities or severe injuries. Despite these assertions, the pharmaceutical company refutes the allegations, stating that they do not acknowledge a causal relationship between the vaccine and Thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (TTS) on a generic level. However, a year of court wrangling later, legal documents submitted by AstraZeneca have now admitted that their vaccine can cause TTS in very rare cases, although the causal mechanism is still not well known. This revelation has led to renewed uproar against the vaccine’s side-effects. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Is there cause for worry?" comment="subhead" text="Is there cause for worry?">Is there cause for worry?</cmsannotation> In short words, not really. Links between the <keyword id="21483117" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AstraZeneca-vaccine" source="keywords">AstraZeneca vaccine</keyword> and vaccine-induced immune TTS have been scientifically identified since early 2021, soon after the first COVID-19 vaccines had come out. However, it is so very rare — a few dozen reported cases among the millions administered — that even the World Health Organisation has deemed the vaccine “safe and effective” for all individuals aged 18 and above. Moreover, even influenza, H1N1 and rabies vaccines can cause TTS in very rare instances. Further, it is important to note that an infection with COVID-19 is itself a major cause for clot, heart attacks and strokes. Being vaccinated actually lowers these risks. There is also the fact that all vaccines or drugs carry potential side-effects, and these medical interventions are only cleared for release after determining that their benefits vastly outweigh any complications. Finally, the <keyword id="21483118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="TTS-side-effects" source="keywords">TTS side-effects</keyword> — which include symptoms such as headaches, blurred vision, chest pain, leg swelling or tiny blood spots under the skin — manifest between 1-6 weeks of vaccination. Considering that most Indians received their Covishield jab a couple of years ago, there should be no reason to panic now. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Is it time to consider alternate vaccines?" comment="subhead" text="Is it time to consider alternate vaccines?">Is it time to consider alternate vaccines?</cmsannotation> There is no particular hard evidence that suggests the supremacy of one vaccine over another, considering that they all carry varying degrees of side-effects. That being said, <keyword id="9485939" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="covaxin" source="Orion">Covaxin</keyword> boasts a higher efficacy than Covishield, and has better research data among Indian subjects. However, it may also be important to know that the administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine has been discontinued in many countries, mainly due the aforementioned risk of blood clotting in certain age groups. Whatever the choice, the fact of the matter remains that these vaccines have saved millions since their introduction, and it is pertinent that we continue taking them diligently, unless any premier health authorities recommend otherwise.

Should you be worried about the potential side-effects of the Covishield vaccine?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Polls show that the economy is the most important issue in the election.</li><li>President Joe Biden has a good record, but Americans are still angry over high prices.</li></ul>No issue looms larger for the 2024 election than <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">the economy.</a>A May ABC News-Ipsos poll found that nearly 9 in 10 Americans said that either the economy generally or "inflation, meaning raising prices" was the most important issue in determining their vote for this November.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-vote-ukraine-top-issue-2024-candidate-guide">Russia's invasion of Ukraine</a> is Europe's largest conflict since WWII. Illegal border crossings are at their highest level on record. The Supreme Court's reversal of Roe triggered a major shift in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-vote-abortion-top-issue-2024-biden-trump-guide">abortion</a> politics. And yes, a former president, Donald Trump, has been found guilty on felony charges. Despite all of that, political strategist James Carville's axiom "It's the economy stupid" may still hold.In a traditional election, Biden wouldn't be feeling too much pressure. Unemployment remains low. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/high-prices-inflation-sticking-interest-rate-hikes-stock-market-2024-5">Inflation</a> has cooled, but prices remain high. Wall Street has hit new records. But voters consistently say they aren't feeling it. One economist coined the term "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/soft-landing-economy-us-on-track-data-cooling-interest-rates-2024-6">vibecession</a>" to describe the disconnect between the solid fundamentals and the downright dour outlook.Here's a look at each candidate's stance on the issue<h2 id="5df8ea51-d58d-45e5-b1d5-0f7db7bc2a38">Where Joe Biden stands on the economy</h2>Biden is proud of his economic record. Many of the core metrics illustrate there's reason for him to be. Unemployment has remained under 4% for the longest stretch since the 1960s. More than 15 million jobs have been created since he took office. The US economy is expected to grow at double the rate of its G7 peers, according to the International Monetary Fund. Trump loved touting new Wall Street records; under Biden, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dow-40000-what-does-hitting-the-major-milestone-mean-for-investors-1033400640">the Dow hit over 40,000</a> for the first time.Americans aren't feeling it. Inflation has cooled, but prices on everything from eggs to gas remain high. In 2022, food costs accounted for the highest percentage of household income since the 1990s, according to the Department of Agriculture. Even home repairs are costlier now than ever before. Biden has pressured companies to cut prices, but the Federal Reserve has far more power to address inflation than presidents. And the central bank typically only cuts rates when faced with the possibility of a recession or the confidence that a rate cut wouldn't exacerbate inflation. Neither condition exists.The president has outlined an agenda that could help address some pressures. In his 2023 State of the Union, Biden called on Congress to pass tax credits for middle-class home buyers. He also wants existing homeowners who have held off on buying bigger homes to receive $10,000 if they sell a starter home below the median price in their area.Biden's 2025 budget proposal also outlines other potential policies he could pursue if he wins reelection, though he would need Democrats to retake the House. The president proposed hiking the corporate tax rate to 28%; billion-dollar companies would also face a higher corporate minimum tax. Biden also wants a 25% tax on the wealthiest Americans' unrealized income. Taxing the rich would help cut the deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade, according to the White House's estimates.<h2 id="5a790d33-5d23-4496-a40f-d8993fcbfc53">Where Donald Trump stands on the economy</h2>Trump has not yet provided many specifics on what he would do with a second term. Polls show that voters view his presidency much more favorably now. Trump has repeatedly pointed out that inflation was far lower (under 2% on average) during his time in office. Some of the stock market and unemployment records that were set under Trump pre-COVID-19 have been surpassed by Biden.Economists fear that some of Trump's ideas could actually make inflation worse.He wants a crackdown on illegal immigration, which matches the sentiment that the issue has gotten out of control under Biden's watch. But such actions could worsen labor shortages.The self-described "Tariff Man" wants to impose a 10% tariff on all imported goods and even higher tariffs on some Chinese products. Trump has falsely argued that foreign countries bear the costs. In actuality, US importers are forced to pay the additional costs, and studies show that sometimes, that is passed on to consumers.Trump's allies are also looking at ways to expand on his assault against the Federal Reserve and its chairman Jerome Powell. Trump appointed Powell to lead the central bank, but soured on him. Like all presidents, Trump wanted lower interest rates to juice borrowing. Unlike his recent predecessors, Trump applied significant pressure on the Fed, undermining its prized political independence. The central bank is mandated to keep inflation low, which requires raising the benchmark interest rate. According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump's allies are considering policies that would give a president greater say over the Fed's moves.The former president also wants Congress to renew his signature tax plan that passed without Democrats' support. Conservatives often argue that tax cuts and deregulation fuel economic growth. At times. of higher inflation, such cuts can actually raise prices. As NPR previously reported, there's no perfect relationship between cutting taxes and economic growth. Trump has also proposed working with Congress to end the taxation of tips.

How the economy will change under Trump vs Biden

The Indian Council of Medical Research Director General Dr Rajiv Bahl on Monday criticised a recently published study on the long-term safety analysis of the <keyword id="9485939" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="covaxin" source="Orion">Covaxin</keyword> in adults and adolescents for its poor methodology and design, and clarified the article misleadingly and erroneously "acknowledges" <keyword id="19918794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICMR" source="keywords">ICMR</keyword>. Dr Bahl said the study had no control arm of unvaccinated individuals for comparing the rates of events between the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. Hence, the reported events in the study cannot be linked or attributed to COVID-19 vaccination. He added that the ICMR is not associated with the study and has not provided any financial or technical support for the research. The ICMR DG has written a letter to the authors of the paper and Editor of the journal to immediately remove the acknowledgement to ICMR and publish an erratum. A research paper, titled 'Long-Term Safety Analysis of the BBVl52 <keyword id="21730391" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="coronavirus-vaccine" source="keywords">Coronavirus Vaccine</keyword> in Adolescents and Adults: Findings from a l-Year Prospective Study in North India' stated that nearly one-third of the 926 participants in the study who received Bharat Biotech's anti-Covid vaccine Covaxin reported 'adverse events of special interest,' or AESI. Dr Bahl said that ICMR was acknowledged for research support without any prior approval of or intimation to ICMR, which is inappropriate and unacceptable. He stated that ICMR cannot be associated with this poorly designed study which purports to present a "safety analysis" of Covaxin due to several critical flaws. He said the study does not even provide background rates of observed events in the population, making it impossible to assess the change in incidence of observed events in the post-vaccination period. Baseline information of study participants is missing. The study tool used is inconsistent with 'Adverse Events of Special Interest (AESI)' as defined in the reference provided in the paper for AESI. The method of data collection has a high risk of bias, he said. Study participants were contacted telephonically one year after vaccination and their responses were recorded without any confirmation with clinical records or by physician examination, he pointed out. Dr Bahl also noted that similar acknowledgements to ICMR have been made in previous papers without permission, raising concerns about the authors' practices. "The authors have been urged to immediately rectify the acknowledgment to ICMR and publish an erratum. Additionally, they are asked to address the methodological concerns raised. Failure to do so may prompt ICMR to consider legal and administrative action," he said. The Editor has been asked to retract the paper which implicitly makes conclusions on <keyword id="21495684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vaccine-safety" source="keywords">vaccine safety</keyword> which are not supported by evidence. The study, conducted by researchers from the Banaras Hindu University from January 2022 to August 2023, stated that nearly 50 per cent of 926 study participants in the study complained of infections during the follow-up period, predominated by viral upper respiratory tract infections. Serious AESI, which included stroke and Guillain-Barre syndrome, were reported in one per cent of individuals, the study, which looked at long-term safety of the BBV152 (Covaxin) vaccine in adolescents and adults, claimed. The study involved 635 adolescents and 291 adults, who received the BBV152 vaccine.

BHU study on Covaxin side effects poorly designed, critically flawed: ICMR Director General

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks nosedived on Thursday after several discouraging economic data points.</li><li>Jobless claims soared past estimates to the highest level seen in nearly a year.</li></ul>US stock indexes saw a deep sell-off on Thursday as a combination of rising unemployment and slowing economic indicators weighed on markets.In the labor market, new data showed jobless claims came in at 249,000 for last week, above estimates of 236,000. That number marks the highest level in nearly a year and is another signal to the Fed that rate cuts are needed soon.Investors are pricing in a 100% chance of Fed rate cuts in September, according to the<a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html"> CME FedWatch tool</a>. During an FOMC meeting on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested the Fed would be "data dependent, but not data-point dependent" in making the decision to cut rates.Meanwhile, new data shows ISM manufacturing slid further into contraction territory in July. The ISM manufacturing index dropped from 48.5% in June to 46.8% in July—an eight-month low—showing that U.S. factories are still in a downturn.Further data shows construction spending unexpectedly declined in June, falling 0.3% to $2.15 trillion. Economists had predicted a 0.2% rise, according to a poll by Reuters.The fall comes as single-family home construction slowed due to higher mortgage rates.The market reaction shows investor optimism over the prospect of a September rate cut — and potentially <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-slowdown-signal-flashed-interest-rate-cuts-accelerate-fed-2024-8">more aggressive cuts</a> than are currently being expected — is being outweighed by negative economic developments.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,446.68, down 1.4%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,347.97, down 1.2% (495 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,194.14, down 2.3%</li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li>Moderna's stock<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/moderna-stock-price-crash-covid19-shots-european-demand-2024-8"> tumbled as much as 21%</a> after posting a disappointing sales slump as demand for its Covid-19 vaccine slows.</li><li>Jensen Huang just got <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jensen-huang-fortune-soars-after-record-day-nvidia-stock-price-2024-8">$12 billion richer</a> in a single day as Nvidia's stock soared on Wednesday.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 0.8% to $80.05 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose 0.6% to $2,441.80 per ounce.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> slipped 1.9% to $63,324.32.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes tank as data paints a negative picture for the economy

During the coronavirus pandemic, offices around the world had to alter their way of working and make work from home the norm to keep people safe. For two years, almost all companies in the world offered <keyword id="20665553" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="remote-work" source="keywords">remote work</keyword> and there were reports that this would become the future of working. Employees enjoyed the new flexibility and realised how remote work can help them balance work and life with ease. However, contrary to what was perceived, companies began calling employees <keyword id="9081434" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="back-to-office" source="Orion">back to office</keyword> as soon as it was safe. <h2><keyword id="20122085" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CEOs" source="keywords">CEOs</keyword> want employees back in offices </h2> In the last few months, there have been ample studies that show how employees are more productive while working from home or in a hybrid setup where they are required to come to office for 2-3 days in a week. Yet, companies are adamant on calling their employees back to offices. For instance, Amazon recently ordered its employees to return to office for five days a week, putting an end to remote work forever. Now, a new study by <keyword id="19896405" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="KPMG" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="KPMG" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="KPMG">KPMG</keyword> has revealed that majority of Indian CEOs are ready to incentivise employees who work from the office, marking a shift towards a more traditional work model post-pandemic. According to the KPMG 2024 India CEO Outlook, 91 percent of Indian CEOs are considering linking rewards, such as promotions and pay raises, to <keyword id="21386806" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="office-attendance" source="keywords">office attendance</keyword>. This figure is slightly higher than the global average of 87 percent, indicating a stronger push in India to encourage in-person work. The report, based on responses from 125 Indian CEOs, highlights a growing belief that office-based work fosters better collaboration, innovation, and productivity. As many as 78% of Indian CEOs expect their entire workforce to return to the office within the next three years, a trend mirrored globally, though at a slightly higher rate of 83%. <keyword id="20142903" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-companies" source="keywords">Indian companies</keyword> are increasingly focused on improving their employee value proposition—the set of benefits and incentives offered to employees. CEOs are prioritising a supportive and engaging office environment as key to attracting and retaining top talent. By linking rewards to in-office work, companies aim to align employee satisfaction with long-term growth objectives. <h2>Understanding what employees want </h2> Sunit Sinha, Partner and Head of Human Capital Advisory Solutions at KPMG in India, pointed out that in the post-COVID-19 era, it is crucial for businesses to understand the evolving preferences of employees. As workers reconsider their options, businesses need to adapt to remain competitive in the talent market. Sinha said that companies must use data to address employee needs, saying, “The power to shape the future of talent lies in staying informed and adapting proactively.” In addition to in-office incentives, the KPMG report also talked about the increasing role of technology, particularly generative AI, in workforce development. Half of the CEOs surveyed are prioritising the enhancement of workforce skills alongside their investment in AI. Indian CEOs believe generative AI can help develop diverse skills and prepare their teams for a future where technology plays a central role in operations. However, while CEOs are optimistic about the potential of AI, they also expressed concern over the lack of regulations governing the technology. Seventy-seven percent of Indian CEOs are apprehensive about the pace of AI regulation, higher than the global average of 69%. Despite these concerns, Indian business leaders remain confident in AI’s ability to enhance organisational performance and secure a competitive edge.

You Searched For "covid 19 indian economy" and got 13 results

India's strong economic recovery is led by fiscal expenditure: DSP MF

ANI

The COVID-19 pandemic has made people more reluctant to go out, study finds

BI India Bureau

The Covid lockdowns did WHAT to the Moon?!

Ashmita Gupta

Amid declining retail inflation, wholesale inflation in India moderates to 2.04% in July

ANI

FPIs withdraw nearly Rs 20,000 crore from equities in the last 5 trading sessions, make a beeline for China and US

BI India Bureau

290 cases of COVID-19 variant KP.2, 34 cases of KP.1 detected in India: INSACOG data

PTI

India's economic boom feels like 2003-07: Morgan Stanley

PTI

People are still flocking to Florida. It could help them ride out a slowdown in the economy.

John Towfighi

Should you be worried about the potential side-effects of the Covishield vaccine?

Ankush Banerjee

How the economy will change under Trump vs Biden

Brent D. Griffiths

BHU study on Covaxin side effects poorly designed, critically flawed: ICMR Director General

PTI

Stock market today: Indexes tank as data paints a negative picture for the economy

Kelly Cloonan

91 percent Indian CEOs want to reward employees who work from offices, majority expect to end remote work in three years

Divyanshi Sharma

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