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India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

India's economy is expected to grow at 7-7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year driven by robust economic fundamentals and continuity in domestic policy reforms, <keyword id="20006170" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Deloitte-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Deloitte India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Deloitte India">Deloitte India</keyword> said on Monday. The August update of <keyword id="19896400" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="deloitte" source="keywords">Deloitte</keyword>'s India Economic Outlook said several initiatives in the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="union-budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> 2024-25 toward improving agriculture productivity, creating jobs for the youth, and in manufacturing and addressing the challenge of access to finance for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), would help improve supply-side demand, curb inflation, and prop up <keyword id="20139791" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-spending" source="keywords">consumer spending</keyword>, especially in rural areas. Deloitte India Economist Rumki Majumdar said, India will witness robust growth in the second half after a period of uncertainty in the first six months of the year. "Key contributing factors include the continuity in domestic policy reforms, reduced uncertainties in the US post-elections, and more synchronous global growth within a low inflation regime. "Additionally, improved global liquidity conditions, as central banks in the West ease their monetary policy stance, will enhance capital flows and drive higher investments, particularly in the private sector," Majumdar said. Observing that strong economic fundamentals would drive <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> between 7 per cent and 7.2 per cent in FY25, the Economic Outlook report said effectively addressing the urban-rural consumer spending gaps, inflation, and employment concerns can significantly enhance the affordability of aspirational rural consumers. "The much-desirable policy pivot was evident in the Union Budget presented last month. Reducing the urban and rural spending gap in the coming years will ensure sustained consumer demand from a larger consumer base," it added. Deloitte India's growth projection is at par with that of RBI, which projected FY'25 growth at 7.2 per cent. It is higher than Finance Ministry's Economic Survey which estimated GDP expansion between 6.5-7 per cent. The <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword> grew at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24 fiscal year. The report further said despite strong growth, private consumption spending has remained modest over the past five years. The pandemic, high global and domestic inflation, consequent tightening of financial conditions, and the effects of poor agriculture output on rural demand seem to have capped private consumption growth in India. But a Deloitte research showed that India is witnessing distinct and broad-based shifts in consumption patterns. There is a broad-based shift in the composition of consumption towards more non-food and discretionary items, reflecting changing lifestyles and preferences that are here to stay. According to the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey, spending on discretionary goods and services (including conveyance) has gone up both in rural and urban India, with the former quickly catching up in spending on discretionary durable goods (including automobiles, electric and electronic goods) with the latter in just one decade. "Demand for processed food has been among the highest in most states, suggesting a shift towards ready-to-eat options. Rapid urbanization, increasing women's participation in the workforce, and enhanced marketing and availability are driving these changing dietary habits," the report said. According to Deloitte research, if increasing income in states results in a relatively equitable distribution and higher rural spending, businesses can tap into a larger proportion of the state's population that resides in rural areas. This gives businesses access to a large consumer base and a sustainable consumer spending demand, as compared to states with a widening gap.

Indian economy likely to grow at 7-7.2 percent in FY25,Deloitte India says

The Indian Council of Medical Research Director General Dr Rajiv Bahl on Monday criticised a recently published study on the long-term safety analysis of the <keyword id="9485939" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="covaxin" source="Orion">Covaxin</keyword> in adults and adolescents for its poor methodology and design, and clarified the article misleadingly and erroneously "acknowledges" <keyword id="19918794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICMR" source="keywords">ICMR</keyword>. Dr Bahl said the study had no control arm of unvaccinated individuals for comparing the rates of events between the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. Hence, the reported events in the study cannot be linked or attributed to COVID-19 vaccination. He added that the ICMR is not associated with the study and has not provided any financial or technical support for the research. The ICMR DG has written a letter to the authors of the paper and Editor of the journal to immediately remove the acknowledgement to ICMR and publish an erratum. A research paper, titled 'Long-Term Safety Analysis of the BBVl52 <keyword id="21730391" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="coronavirus-vaccine" source="keywords">Coronavirus Vaccine</keyword> in Adolescents and Adults: Findings from a l-Year Prospective Study in North India' stated that nearly one-third of the 926 participants in the study who received Bharat Biotech's anti-Covid vaccine Covaxin reported 'adverse events of special interest,' or AESI. Dr Bahl said that ICMR was acknowledged for research support without any prior approval of or intimation to ICMR, which is inappropriate and unacceptable. He stated that ICMR cannot be associated with this poorly designed study which purports to present a "safety analysis" of Covaxin due to several critical flaws. He said the study does not even provide background rates of observed events in the population, making it impossible to assess the change in incidence of observed events in the post-vaccination period. Baseline information of study participants is missing. The study tool used is inconsistent with 'Adverse Events of Special Interest (AESI)' as defined in the reference provided in the paper for AESI. The method of data collection has a high risk of bias, he said. Study participants were contacted telephonically one year after vaccination and their responses were recorded without any confirmation with clinical records or by physician examination, he pointed out. Dr Bahl also noted that similar acknowledgements to ICMR have been made in previous papers without permission, raising concerns about the authors' practices. "The authors have been urged to immediately rectify the acknowledgment to ICMR and publish an erratum. Additionally, they are asked to address the methodological concerns raised. Failure to do so may prompt ICMR to consider legal and administrative action," he said. The Editor has been asked to retract the paper which implicitly makes conclusions on <keyword id="21495684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vaccine-safety" source="keywords">vaccine safety</keyword> which are not supported by evidence. The study, conducted by researchers from the Banaras Hindu University from January 2022 to August 2023, stated that nearly 50 per cent of 926 study participants in the study complained of infections during the follow-up period, predominated by viral upper respiratory tract infections. Serious AESI, which included stroke and Guillain-Barre syndrome, were reported in one per cent of individuals, the study, which looked at long-term safety of the BBV152 (Covaxin) vaccine in adolescents and adults, claimed. The study involved 635 adolescents and 291 adults, who received the BBV152 vaccine.

BHU study on Covaxin side effects poorly designed, critically flawed: ICMR Director General

<div type="image" title="Are Indians depositing less money in banks, or more in mutual funds? Turns out, it&amp;#39;s neither of those." msid="113663806" hostid="261" sizebytes="1121785"></div> Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of <keyword id="20202062" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-deposits" source="keywords">bank deposits</keyword> in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialisation of <keyword id="20751315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="household-savings" source="keywords">household savings</keyword> in the country or the rising preference of Indians towards <keyword id="19929240" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="keywords">mutual funds</keyword> and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword> through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by Franklin Templeton, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are household deposits really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. <div type="image" title="Yes, household deposits (as % of total deposits) have dipped, but the drop is far from significant" msid="113663882" hostid="261" sizebytes="306706"></div> Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian households in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and <keyword id="114757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="savings-account" source="Orion">savings account</keyword> deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of Securities Transaction Tax (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell <keyword id="6361918" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-mutual-funds" source="Orion">equity mutual funds</keyword>, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by <keyword id="45369" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equities" source="Orion">equities</keyword> can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the Fed recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day. Do you have insights or personal experience to share on your personal finances or money? Contact us at <a target="_blank" class="c-link" href="mailto:businessinsider@timesinternet.in">businessinsider@timesinternet.in</a>.

Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

The e-commerce market in India is projected to increase significantly to over USD 300 billion by 2030 as the country's <keyword id="20107419" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-economy" source="keywords">digital economy</keyword> is set to reach a whopping USD 1 billion by the same year. According to <keyword id="19918506" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Invest-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Invest India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Invest India">Invest India</keyword>, India's online shopper base will be the 2nd largest globally by 2030, with nearly 500-600 Mn shoppers. Even now, India has the 2nd largest Internet user-base globally with 881 million users. India is moving towards becoming a dominant force in global e-commerce by 2030, driven by a growing digital economy and an expanding internet user base. The data from the investment promotion and facilitation agency Invest India from shows India taking the lead in <keyword id="19957108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="online-shopping" source="keywords">online shopping</keyword>, the e-commerce sector in India is valued at USD 70 billion at present. This makes up for just around 7 percent of the total retail market in the country. However, several factors are likely to contribute a bright future outlook for the sector. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Growing internet penetration and digital economy" comment="subhead" text="Growing internet penetration and digital economy">Growing <keyword id="20707509" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="internet-penetration" source="keywords">internet penetration</keyword> and digital economy</cmsannotation> Internet penetration across has seen substantial growth, with over 60% of the Indian population (918 million) using the internet by September 2023. Further, an estimated 87 percent of Indian households are projected to have internet access as early as 2025. The time spent accessing the internet via mobile devices has also increased by 21 percent compared to 2019. The affordability of data prices in India is a key factor, with one gigabyte of data priced at around USD 0.17 (Rs 13.5), encouraging a large portion of the population to go online. <keyword id="21457667" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mobile-data-traffic" source="keywords">Mobile data traffic</keyword> has tripled from 2018 to 2023, demonstrating the growing dependence on <keyword id="19979951" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-platforms" source="keywords">digital platforms</keyword> for diverse requirements. It is projected that by 2026, 1.18 billion people across the country will have access to smartphones, over 80% of India's population. The increasing number of smartphone users along with higher average data consumption per user, boosts the digital economy. The Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has become a major player in digital payments, handling transactions worth USD 1.5 trillion in 2022. There has been a significant increase in the availability of local language and mobile-first content, with about 73 percent of India's internet users utilizing Indian languages. As a result, there is an estimated regional language user base of 540 million, creating a market worth USD 53 billion. Digital infrastructure like UPI, eKYC, and Aadhaar has cut down the consumer onboarding time by 80 percent, enhancing the digital experience. The Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) is another notable initiative by the Government of India, launched in 2022. It aims to provide equal opportunities to MSMEs to thrive in digital commerce and democratize e-commerce. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="A transition along with growth" comment="subhead" text="A transition along with growth">A transition along with growth</cmsannotation> In FY 2022-23, Government e-marketplace (GeM) registered its highest ever Gross Merchandise Value of $2011 Bn, shows data from Invest India. The projected growth in online shoppers in India is substantial, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22 percent to 88 million in rural India and 15 percent to 263 million in urban India from 2019 to 2026. There is a notable transition towards rural-focused value e-commerce, with more than 60 percent of demand anticipated to come from tier 2-4 towns and rural India by 2026. Government programs such as the National Logistics Policy are designed to streamline deliveries to remote areas, improving the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of logistics. The quick commerce market in India's hyperlocal mobility sector is also projected to grow exponentially to achieve a market size of USD 5.5 billion by 2025. Leading companies like Swiggy and Zomato are at the forefront of the market, while startups like Zepto are also gaining substantial market share. <keyword id="20873923" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="social-commerce" source="keywords">Social commerce</keyword>, a new trend that uses social networks and digital media to connect buyers and sellers, is also projected to achieve a market size of USD 70 billion by 2030, with small video applications gaining significant popularity. Significant mergers and acquisitions have been observed in the e-commerce sector, with companies such as Zomato and PhonePe making strategic decisions to enhance their positions. Government schemes like Jan Dhan Yojana, BharatNet Project, and the implementation of Goods &amp; Service Tax (GST) have been instrumental in shaping India's digital economy. (With inputs from ANI)

India's e-commerce market set to skyrocket as the country's digital economy surges to USD 1 Trillion by 2030

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Are you ready for some football?! The NFL season kicks off tonight with the reigning Super Bowl Champions/Taylor Swift's favorite team, the Kansas City Chiefs, playing the Baltimore Ravens. If you're like many Americans, you might be placing a bet on the action. I wrote about why sports gambling's rise <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sports-gambling-weird-quirks-bets-nfl-nba-draftkings-fanduel-2024-9">has also made it a bit weird</a>.In today's big story, where the US economy is headed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-interest-rate-cuts-recession-outlook-federal-reserve-soft-landing-2024-9">could finally be answered with Friday's jobs report</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Nvidia investors should be <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-technical-analysts-eye-danger-zone-levels-2024-9">focused on these two numbers</a>.</li><li>Tech: This healthcare startup's got a VC CEO doing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/healthcare-weirdest-startup-commure-blank-check-general-catalyst-hemant-taneja-2024-9">whatever it takes for it to succeed</a>.</li><li>Business: Inside America's wildest — and most lucrative — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mass-torts-lawsuits-lawyers-settlements-strippers-hard-partying-money-2024-9">lawsuits</a>.</li></ul>But first, one data point to rule them all.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">All eyes on jobs</h2><div type="image" title="George Washington stands warily behind a fork in the road sign." height="877" width="1754" msid="113099191" hostid="261" sizebytes="144538"></div>It's so close you can almost taste it.The Federal Reserve is finally on the precipice of cutting interest rates. We're less than two weeks out from the Fed's September 18 meeting where the central bank is set to provide Americans with some much-needed relief.But one hurdle remains between now and then: Friday's job report.While the data won't jeopardize the central bank's decision to cut rates, it will help it decide how deep it will go. More broadly, a weak or strong report will also provide color on whether <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-interest-rate-cuts-recession-outlook-federal-reserve-soft-landing-2024-9">the economy is headed toward a soft or crash landing</a>, write Business Insider's Juliana Kaplan, Madison Hoff, and Ayelet Sheffey.The last jobs report before the Fed's decision was always bound to be a big one. But August's report became even more important after how things went last go around.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-job-growth-july-labor-market-economic-data-2024-7">Unemployment unexpectedly jumped to 4.3%</a> and fewer jobs were added than economists expected in July's report. Coupled with some weak manufacturing data and shaky earnings, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-selloff-today-jobs-report-recession-unemployment-tech-earnings-2024-8">the stock market started melting down</a>.Ultimately, the market was able to rally back. But the fear of the US slipping into a recession still remains. Friday's job report could go a long way in dispelling those fears or emboldening them.<div type="image" title="Photo illustration of Jerome Powell" height="750" width="1000" msid="113099194" hostid="261" sizebytes="41878"></div>Regardless of Friday's report, it's important to remember cutting interest rates won't create economic miracles.If unemployment spikes for a second month in a row, the Fed could offer a deeper rate cut than the typical 25 basis points. But it takes time for the effects of the policy to work its way through the economy.Bigger also isn't necessarily better when it comes to rate cuts. If the Fed believes it needs to take drastic measures, that's a bad sign for the state of the economy. And don't expect rate cuts <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-interestrate-cuts-stock-market-bull-run-upside-outlook-jpmorgan-2024-9">to send stocks soaring</a>.I don't blame you if you're sick of this back-and-forth economy. Experts have waffled to and fro about where things are headed for more than a year.But at least Friday represents the end of the tunnel. The question is if it'll be bright or dark.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Elon Musk tweeted something <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-hitler-tucker-carlson-advertisers-2024-9">even he can't defend</a>.</li><li>Longtime Unilever media exec Luis Di Como is leaving <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unilever-top-media-exec-luis-di-como-leave-amid-restructuring-2024-9">amid a broader shake-up of the business</a>.</li><li>Russia built a secret trade channel with India, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-india-payment-issues-us-west-sanctions-rupees-ukraine-war-2024-9">leaked documents</a> show.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennium-technology-prize-baliga-semiconductor-invention-igbt-changed-world-2024-9">Meet the professor</a> who just won the Millennium Technology Prize — and $1.1 million.</li><li>A top New York official was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/linda-sun-new-york-governor-top-aide-salted-ducks-china-2024-9">paid off by China</a> with salted ducks, a job for her cousin, and millions to her husband's business: DOJ.</li><li>Barron Trump is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/barron-trump-attending-new-york-university-college-2024-9">going to NYU</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of Jensen Huang" height="1000" width="1333" msid="113099203" hostid="261" sizebytes="150634"></div><ol><li>Nvidia's two all-important numbers. After a volatile few days of trading, technical analysts are looking at the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-technical-analysts-eye-danger-zone-levels-2024-9">psychological $100 level and then the 200-day moving average</a>, which is just below $90. If Nvidia's share price drops below the latter, "NVDA's market leadership status may be lost," LPL technical strategist Adam Turnquist told BI.</li><li>The latest casualty of AI: Oil prices. Goldman Sachs analysts believe the tech will improve logistics and boost oil recovery. Even with the higher demand to power AI, the increased supply <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/ai-oil-prices-productivity-logistics-supply-demand-energy-goldman-sachs-2024-9">will drive prices down over the next decade</a>. But the "Dr. Doom" economist sees oil prices going the other way amid <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/economy-oil-prices-outlook-stagflation-israel-iran-war-nouriel-roubini-2024-9">deepening conflicts in the Middle East</a>.</li><li>The road to November will be rocky for stocks. Market vet Ed Yardeni sees market "choppiness" in the lead up to the US presidential election. But don't worry. Record highs could be back on the menu, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-volatility-presidential-election-ed-yardeni-gridlock-selloff-2024-9">depending on how things go</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of Hemant Taneja." height="1500" width="2000" msid="113099197" hostid="261" sizebytes="249928"></div><ol><li>The weirdest startup in healthcare has a blank check from a top VC firm. Usually, startups must fight tooth and nail to prove they're worthy of investors' attention. The healthcare startup Commure has an unusual advantage: its cofounder is the CEO of General Catalyst. He'll do <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/healthcare-weirdest-startup-commure-blank-check-general-catalyst-hemant-taneja-2024-9">whatever it takes</a> to see the startup win.</li><li>How to survive online in the age of AI. AI models and chatbots are changing how online information is consumed, affecting website traffic. In order to stay relevant in this new digital ecosystem, website owners need speed and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/frontier-content-survive-online-ai-2024-9">exclusive "frontier content"</a> their viewers can't get anywhere else.</li><li>Apple and Meta can't stop fighting over who's in charge of protecting the kids. Everyone and their mother is mad at Mark Zuckerberg's company for contributing to the youth mental health crisis. Meta says it should be up to the App Store to verify users' ages, but <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-apple-feud-app-store-child-teen-mental-health-2024-9">Apple won't budge</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="A skull in the middle of objects that have been subject to mass torts." height="1800" width="2400" msid="113099201" hostid="261" sizebytes="797548"></div><ol><li>You may be entitled to financial compensation. Mass torts allow hundreds of thousands of people to seek damages for harm caused by things like asbestos, contaminated water, or carcinogenic baby powder. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mass-torts-lawsuits-lawyers-settlements-strippers-hard-partying-money-2024-9">Here's how they took over America's courts</a>.</li><li>ESPN's Big Apple betting dreams. The sports network is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/espn-bet-new-york-launch-online-sports-betting-fanduel-draftkings-2024-9">launching ESPN Bet in New York</a> as football season begins. Though the betting app may be regaining some momentum, it's going to be tough to beat FanDuel and DraftKings.</li><li>Andreessen Horowitz says adios to Miami. The VC firm has reportedly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/andreessen-horowitz-leaves-miami-florida-office-report-2024-9">abandoned its South Florida office</a> just two years into a five-year lease, a sign that the recent tech and crypto migration to Miami may be short-lived.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>You don't have to be a millionaire to retire before 50, an accountant says. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/accountant-retired-before-50-without-1-million-savings-2024-9">Here's how she did it</a>.</li><li>Why 'fake heiress' Anna Sorokin, quietly released from house arrest, can <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/anna-sorokin-house-arrest-dancing-with-the-stars-ankle-monitor-2024-9">compete in 'Dancing With the Stars'</a> with an ankle monitor.</li><li>Raising Cane's just offered a rare glimpse into its finances — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raising-canes-revenue-private-debt-offering-todd-graves-net-worth-2024-9">and the chicken-finger giant is growing like crazy</a>.</li><li>This leaked 2007 DoubleClick pitch deck is set to play a central role in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-deck-doubleclick-acquisition-pitch-google-adtech-antitrust-trial-2024-9">Google's blockbuster adtech antitrust trial</a>.</li><li>George R. R. Martin criticized the changes made by 'House of the Dragon' <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/george-rr-martin-house-of-the-dragon-changes-criticism-maelor-2024-9">in a quickly deleted blog post</a>.</li><li>Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky says women founders say they can't go 'founder mode' like men and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airbnb-ceo-brian-chesky-women-say-cant-go-founder-mode-2024-9">that it needs to change</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Court hearing in Donald Trump's Jan. 6 case after Supreme Court ruled acts covered by presidential immunity.</li><li>Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) begins.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

US economy's fate hangs on jobs report as Fed decides how deep cuts will go

<ul><li>A study by <keyword id="19900426" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Accenture" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Accenture" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Accenture">Accenture</keyword> says GenAI could add billions to Indian economy</li><li>The study added that 31 percent of working hours in India could be automated</li><li> Indian economy could be up by as much as USD 675 billion by 2038</li></ul> In the last two years, there have been many debates about the possibility of AI replacing human beings at their jobs. Various tech experts have expressed their opinions on this. While there is one section of people saying that AI will make it easier for human beings to do their jobs, there is another section that fears being replaced altogether. Talking about the section that thinks AI will help humans do their jobs better, various experts have said in the past that AI will focus on mundane aspects of a job so that human beings can be fully focused on more challenging and creative parts. And a new study by Accenture seems to support this argument. Moreover, the study also says that due to the use of generative AI, Indian economy could be up by as much as USD 675 billion. <h2>GenAI could add USD 675 billion to Indian economy</h2>According to the study by Accenture, adopting a people-centric approach to GenAI could potentially add USD 675 billion to India's economy by 2038. This transformative impact hinges on a bold vision for reinvention, underscored by strong data and technology foundations, and an intentional approach to workforce development. The <keyword id="22702248" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Accenture-study" source="keywords">Accenture study</keyword> highlights that the deployment of GenAI could automate approximately 31 percent of working hours in India. This significant shift is expected to contribute a 0.6 percentage point increase to the annual GDP growth, showcasing GenAI's potential as a powerful economic driver. However, the journey to harnessing this potential is fraught with both opportunities and challenges. For the unversed, generative AI, a subset of artificial intelligence, involves machines generating text, images, or other media in response to prompts. This technology has far-reaching implications for industries ranging from capital markets to retail, banking, insurance, and software platforms. Globally, these sectors are expected to witness the automation or augmentation of 49% to 71% of working hours due to GenAI. <h2>31 percent automation in India</h2>The Accenture study also highlights that in the Asia-Pacific region, the impact of GenAI is anticipated to be substantial, with Australia and Japan seeing the highest impact at 45% and 44% of working hours, respectively. For India, the projection of 31% automation signifies a seismic shift in how businesses operate and how work is performed. <keyword id="22702250" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="saurabh-kumar-sahu" source="keywords">Saurabh Kumar Sahu</keyword>, Lead for India Business at Accenture, underscored the necessity of a bold vision for reinvention. He said that the scaled and responsible deployment of GenAI can drive revenue growth and act as a force of change, reinventing functions across industries. However, unlocking the real value of GenAI requires businesses to have robust data and technology foundations. "The scaled and responsible deployment of generative AI can not only drive revenue growth but also act as a force of change that can reinvent almost all functions across industries. To unlock its real value, businesses need to have a bold vision for reinvention anchored in a strong data and technology foundation. This, coupled with an intentional approach to skilling, is crucial to succeed in the age of generative AI," Sahu said in a statement according to a report in Business Standard. <h2>89 percent businesses plan to increase AI spending</h2>Despite the promising prospects, there is a critical gap in preparation that could hinder the effective integration of GenAI. The Accenture study reveals that while 89% of businesses plan to increase spending on AI, only 35% prioritise workforce development. Moreover, a mere 4% of business leaders have implemented GenAI training at scale. This disparity underscores the urgent need for comprehensive skill development programs. As organisations embrace GenAI, equipping the workforce with the necessary skills is important to ensuring that the technology's implementation is both effective and sustainable. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/artificial-intelligence/news/verizon-sees-early-success-using-generative-ai-to-answer-questions-from-business-customers/amp_articleshow/112145960.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Verizon sees early success using generative AI to answer questions from business customers </a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/yup-ai-is-basically-just-a-homework-cheating-machine/amp_articleshow/112330231.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Yup, AI is basically just a homework-cheating machine</a>

Indian economy could get USD 675 billion due to AI by 2038, study shows

Emissions from residential cooking and heating, power generation, and industries together contribute up to 60 per cent of India's PM2.5 pollution, with about 80 per cent of this coming from <keyword id="23824528" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fossil-fuel-combustion" source="keywords">fossil fuel combustion</keyword>, a new study has found. The peer-reviewed study, published in MDPI's "Air" journal, suggests dividing India into 15 airsheds based on regional climate and pollution sources. An airshed is a geographic area where <keyword id="53848" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="air-quality" source="Orion">air quality</keyword> is influenced by common factors such as wind patterns and pollution sources. Since pollution can spread across regions, the <keyword id="22077484" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="airshed-approach" source="keywords">airshed approach</keyword> promotes coordinated action among states. "Residential cooking and heating, power generation, and all other industries together are responsible for 40-60 per cent of the PM2.5 pollution in all the airsheds, and approximately 80 per cent of the pollution comes from fossil fuel burning sources," said Sarath Guttikunda, lead author of the study and founder of UrbanEmissions.info. The study said biomass burning, including post-harvest crop residue burning, contributed less than 3 per cent to annual PM2.5 levels while transport accounted for 5-10 per cent in all airsheds. PM2.5 are fine particles with a diameter of 2.5 micrometres or less, about the width of a human hair. These are so small that these can penetrate deep into the lungs and even enter the bloodstream, posing significant health risks. An analysis of PM2.5 trends from 1998 to 2020, along with state-level data on fuel consumption, energy demand and emissions, revealed that 11 of the 15 airsheds were critical for India's air quality management and required coordinated interventions. The Indo-Gangetic Plains remain the most polluted region, with significant emissions from residential cooking and heating (especially in winter), power plants, brick kilns (driven by construction demand), waste burning, dust and vehicular movement for passengers and freight. The plateau region between the Eastern and Western Ghats, India's second most populated area, has seen the highest rise in annual PM2.5 pollution during this period, the study said. "This is an indication of the growing urbanisation and demand for transport, industrial, and commercial amenities," it said. Coastal areas, vital to India's industrial economy, have also experienced rising pollution despite the moderating effects of land-sea breezes. This increase is attributed to growing shipping emissions and overall industrial growth in cities such as Mundra, Surat, Mumbai, Goa, Mangalore, Kochi, Thiruvananthapuram, Chennai, Visakhapatnam, Paradip and Haldia.

You Searched For "coronavirus effect on economy in india" and got 8 results

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

PTI

Indian economy likely to grow at 7-7.2 percent in FY25,Deloitte India says

PTI

BHU study on Covaxin side effects poorly designed, critically flawed: ICMR Director General

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Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

Ira Alok Puranik

India's e-commerce market set to skyrocket as the country's digital economy surges to USD 1 Trillion by 2030

BI India Bureau

US economy's fate hangs on jobs report as Fed decides how deep cuts will go

Dan DeFrancesco

Indian economy could get USD 675 billion due to AI by 2038, study shows

Divyanshi Sharma

Study traces 60% PM2.5 pollution in India to residential cooking, power generation, industries

PTI

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