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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian inflation will likely rise after the nation hiked its gas prices, British Intelligence said.</li><li>Russia raised domestic gas prices 11% at the start of July.</li></ul>Russian inflation will worsen after a sudden spike in gas prices, according to a new report from the UK intelligence.Consumer prices in Russia are set to rise even higher after the government implemented prices hikes on gas for its citizens this month, the British Ministry of Defence said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1812769823211896886">note</a> this week. Domestic gas prices in Russia spiked 11% at the start of July, likely to make up for industry losses stemming from Western sanctions, the note said."This hike is almost certainly intended to increase revenue from Russia's domestic market, in response to the loss of natural gas exports in Europe," the Ministry said.Gas prices, which are state-controlled in Russia, have already shot up 34% since Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Prices are on track to rise another 8.2% in 2025, which will "almost certainly add to inflationary pressures," the report said.The increases come as Russia has lost a huge segment of its natural gas business as the European Union has weaned itself off of Russian fossil fuels since 2022. Russia has also cut off natural gas supplies to key European countries, like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-cut-natural-gas-to-germany-shell-refused-ruble-payment-2022-6">Germany and the Netherlands</a>, due to suppliers refusing to pay for gas in rubles.The restrictions have taken a huge bite out of Russia's gas sales, which make up one of the Kremlin's largest sources of revenue. Gazprom, Russia's state-run gas producer, said it lost 629 billion rubles, or <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-gas-energy-flows-gazprom-sanctions-ukraine-war-putin-2024-5">around $6.8 billion in 2023</a> — its first recorded loss in over 20 years.Sanctions have also hit Russia's oil revenue, another key source of income for the Kremlin. Moscow's total <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-energy-revenue-crude-oil-prices-gas-exports-sanctions-ukraine-2024-1">oil and gas sales plummeted 24% in 2023</a>, a sign higher energy prices haven't completely made up for the loss in market share.Higher prices have posed a burden on Russians, who have been grappling with elevated inflation since the start of the war in Ukraine. Consumer prices rose 8.6% year-per-year in June, Russia's economic ministry reported, well above the Bank of Russia's 4% price target.British intelligence added that inflation in Russia is "highly likely" to remain above target through the rest of 2024.Analysts expect inflation to clock in at over 6% by the end of the year, which could cause central bank to lift interest rates to 18% in July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russia-seen-hiking-rates-by-200-bps-18-july-inflation-quickens-2024-07-02/">according to Reuters</a>.

Russian inflation will soar even higher as sanctions spark another surge in gas prices, British intelligence says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A New Jersey pizzeria is using Tesla's Cybertruck to serve pizzas on the go.</li><li>The Tesla truck's battery is used to power a portable pizza oven.</li></ul>A pizzeria in New Jersey has transformed two <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cybertruck-owner-highlights-complaints-2024-10">Cybertrucks</a> into pizza trucks, using one of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla">Tesla</a> vehicle's most futuristic features to cook pizzas on the go.Columbia Inn owners Fabio Antonio Arbelaez and Ryan McDermott bought three Tesla Cybertrucks to turn them into pizza delivery vehicles.They wanted new vehicles to relieve the strain on their gasoline pizza truck, which the two partners say was frequently booked months in advance.Now, they say they are facing a huge wave of demand for their Cybertruck pizza trucks, which they've modified to cook pizzas at parties and events."We designed a special sliding bed tray on the truck and set up an electric pizza oven, LED umbrellas, and a small refrigeration unit, which are all powered by the truck," said Arbelaez.<h2 id="4302d74a-d141-41c3-85e1-0fdb3841529d">Pizza on wheels</h2>Arbelaez told Business Insider that the two <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.tesla.com/support/powershare#:~:text=Universal%20Wall%20Connector%20enables%20bi,an%20outage%20when%20plugged%20in.">120-volt and one 240-volt outlets in the Cybertruck's cargo bed</a>, which draw power from its battery, make it perfect for cooking fresh pizzas.<div type="image" title="Cybertruck pizza truck" height="443" width="591" msid="114660681" hostid="261" sizebytes="21486"></div>"Our big gas truck, there's only so many places it can go," said McDermott."We could take the Cybertruck to the middle of the Sahara Desert, provided we have a full charge, cook pizzas for six hours, and drive back," he added.Elon Musk promised the Cybertruck would be an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-cybertruck-recalled-again-2024-10">"apocalypse-proof" </a>off-roader when the first deliveries began last year.A series of viral videos have shown the Cybertruck struggling with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cybertruck-apocalypse-vehicle-thwarted-stuck-sand-snow-regulator-recalls-2024-5">sandy beaches</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cybertruck-tesla-stuck-snow-video-driver-error-ford-viral-2023-12">snowy terrain</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cybertruck-offroading-videos-struggling-climb-steep-hill-2023-11">a steep hill</a>.Like other electric vehicles, including the Ford F-150 Lightning, the Cybertruck has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-vehicles-gm-ford-home-charging-power-climate-change-2022-10">bidirectional</a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-vehicles-gm-ford-home-charging-power-climate-change-2022-10"> charging</a>, allowing it to become a mobile power source for appliances and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.tesla.com/support/powershare#:~:text=Powershare%20allows%20you%20to%20charge,bed%20outlet%20on%20your%20Cybertruck.">even other electric vehicles</a>.Some EV owners have used bidirectional charging to power their homes and vital machinery during storms and flooding, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/f-150-lightnings-are-keeping-the-lights-on-after-helene-2024-10">some F-150 owners in Florida</a> used their vehicles to keep their homes running during Hurricane Helene.<div type="image" title="Cybertruck pizza truck" height="419" width="800" msid="114660676" hostid="261" sizebytes="36648"></div>Arbelaez and McDermott are using two of their Cybertrucks as mobile pizza kitchens, and the third is available on the Turo car rental platform.Arbelaez told BI that in five months of running the first "CyberPizzaTruck" the vehicle had paid off 40% of its price — and with demand booming, they're considering ordering more."Lots of people criticized me in 2012 when I got a Tesla Model S. They said I was stupid for getting that car because Tesla was going to be bankrupt and electric cars would never succeed," said Arbelaez."I got that car because I understood the importance of companies like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla">Tesla,</a> so I wanted to contribute. I hope we have more companies like Tesla and people like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk">Elon Musk</a>," he added.Arbelaez said that growing up on a coffee farm in Colombia had taught him the importance of preserving the environment."Fossil fuels are a wasteful source of energy. We're using unrenewable natural resources to produce energy, and when we do, we pollute the atmosphere and impact the environment," he said.McDermott said that while the Cybertruck does turn plenty of heads, reactions aren't always positive."You get a lot of haters. I've had people scream at me on the highway, saying 'That's the ugliest thing I've ever seen'," he said, adding he believes the reactions are down to hostility about electric vehicles."It just makes me scratch my head and laugh. I think that means we're winning the war here."McDermott and Arbelaez hope to one day serve pizza for Musk and Tesla employees <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-moving-spacex-x-texas-headquarters-california-law-2024-7">at its Austin HQ</a>."We want to be the first people to make pizza on the moon and Mars, and we want to make pizza for them on our Cybertruck out in Texas," McDermott said.

2 New Jersey restaurateurs turned a Cybertruck into a mobile pizza oven — and they want to cook for Elon Musk

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hurricane Helene has caused price-gouging complaints to surge in southeastern states.</li><li>Price gouging involves hiking prices excessively on essential goods, often during emergencies.</li></ul>As <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-destroyed-safe-haven-maples-coffee-shop-north-carolina-2024-10">Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc</a> across southeastern US states, complaints of price gouging have surged.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/grocery-costs-inflation-kamala-harris-ban-price-gouging-election-trump-2024-8#:~:text=Price%20gouging%2C%20in%20which%20companies,high%20grocery%20prices%2C%20as%20well.">Price gouging</a> is when businesses <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-dynamic-pricing-surge-cost-fatigue-2024-7">hike prices on goods or services</a> to excessive levels, often during emergencies, like a natural disaster, taking advantage of high demand and limited supply.Business Insider contacted the states worst hit by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/before-after-satellite-photos-hurricane-helene-destruction-florida-2024-10">the hurricane</a> — North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia — and found that several of them were either inundated with complaints of price gouging or had to issue warnings against it.In South Carolina, which had about 36 storm-related deaths, the Attorney General's office told BI it had documented at least 142 price-gouging complaints since the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-electric-vehicles-evs-owners-fire-risk-safety-tips-2024-10">start of Hurricane Helene.</a>"Of these, most of the complaints are about hotels, gasoline, gas cans, generators, ice, and eggs," said Robert Kittle, communications director for South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson, in an email.He added that more complaints were expected, noting that they still had 246 voicemails and emails to review.However, Kittle said not all of the complaints would warrant further investigation or meet the legal definition of price gouging under the state's law.Wilson, the AG, announced on Thursday that the state's price-gouging law was in effect.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.scag.gov/about-the-office/news/attorney-general-alan-wilson-announces-state-s-price-gouging-law-in-effect-because-of-hurricane-helene/">The announcement</a> said that while the state could expect normal price fluctuations, which are legal, it also anticipated "businesses and individuals looking to unfairly take advantage of the situation," which would violate the law.Kittle said that most of the complaints were coming from upstate South Carolina.In neighboring <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-hits-asheville-beer-microbreweries-north-carolina-floods-2024-9">North Carolina</a>, which experienced the highest death toll of about 56, there were also dozens of price-gouging complaints.A spokesperson for the North Carolina Attorney General's Office said the state's Department of Justice had received 64 complaints alleging price gouging in western North Carolina.Most complaints were about hotel rates as well as grocery and fuel prices, which they said the AG's office was investigating.In <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ncdoj.gov/attorney-general-josh-stein-provides-update-on-price-gouging-after-hurricane-helene/">a statement</a> provided to BI, North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein said: "North Carolina has an anti-price gouging law to make sure that no bad actors try to take advantage of people's desperation.""My team and I aggressively enforce that law and won't let them," he added.Stein noted that more complaints might emerge as residents in western North Carolina, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-damage-port-strike-could-hurt-us-economy-2024-9">heavily impacted by Hurricane Helene,</a> could be facing difficulties connecting to phones or the internet.Florida, which had about 14 storm-related deaths, also received multiple complaints, though the state did not specify how many.Kylie Mason, communications director for Attorney General Ashley Moody, told BI they had received complaints "mostly about fuel and water."On Monday, Moody <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.myfloridalegal.com/newsrelease/consumer-alert-attorney-general-moody-warns-floridians-affected-hurricane-helene-about">issued a warning</a> urging Floridians to be "vigilant" for price gouging.The warning urged anybody suspicious of price gouging on storm-essential items to report it, noting that violators are subject to civil penalties of $1,000 per violation.The attorneys general of Tennessee, which had about eight deaths connected to Hurricane Helene, and Georgia, with about 25, did not immediately respond to BI's request for data. But both states have issued warnings on price gouging.Georgia's Attorney General's Consumer Protection Division <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://consumer.georgia.gov/business-services/emergency-price-controls">warned </a>that "although competition and demand drive prices in our free-market economy," Georgia law prohibits businesses from "taking advantage of the situation" during a state of emergency.It said price increases are only allowed if they reflect legitimate cost increases in stock, transportation, or the retailer's typical markup from the 10 days before the emergency.Similarly, Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti condemned price gouging <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.tn.gov/attorneygeneral/news/2024/10/1/pr24-70.html">in a statement on Tuesday</a>, urging victims to contact the Tennessee Division of Consumer Affairs."Price gouging and scamming vulnerable people after disasters is not only repulsive, it's illegal," he said.In Virginia, which had about two storm-related deaths, there were no complaints of price gouging at the time of reporting."While it is still early, we do not have any reports yet," said Shaun Kenney, director of communications for Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares, in an email Tuesday.Kenney added: "The Virginia Attorney General's Office is doing everything we can to inform the public and make them aware of both their rights and the pathways available to move forward on any complaints or concerns."The issue of price gouging has become a political hot topic in the presidential election cycle, with Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-lower-grocery-prices-inflation-harris-price-gouging-proposal-2024-8">Kamala Harris pledging to stop it</a> in the food and grocery industries if she is elected president.Harris said she plans to pursue the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/grocery-costs-inflation-kamala-harris-ban-price-gouging-election-trump-2024-8">first federal ban on price gouging</a> in response to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-prices-inflation-soaring-corporate-greed-profits-margins-wages-jobs-2023-4">painful inflation</a> in recent years — a plan that has received <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-price-gouging-ceiling-policy-inflation-krugman-oleary-ramsey-2024-8">mixed reviews from economists.</a>

Price-gouging complaints about the cost of fuel, water, and hotels are surging in states hit by Hurricane Helene    

After reporting <keyword id="21767878" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="record-profits" source="keywords">record profits</keyword>, state-owned <keyword id="20459282" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="fuel-retailers" source="keywords">fuel retailers</keyword> <keyword id="19908045" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-Oil-Corporation" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Indian Oil Corporation" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Indian Oil Corporation">Indian Oil Corporation</keyword> (<keyword id="6354733" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IOC" source="Orion">IOC</keyword>), <keyword id="19908646" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BPCL" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="BPCL" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="BPCL">BPCL</keyword> and <keyword id="20052221" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HPCL" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HPCL" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="HPCL">HPCL</keyword> posted up to 90 per cent slump in their June quarter earnings as margins fell and they booked under-recovery on the sale of domestic cooking gas LPG at government-controlled rates. IOC, the nation's largest oil firm, reported 81 per cent drop in standalone net profit in April-June - the first quarter of current 2024-25 fiscal year - to Rs 2,643.18 crore as opposed to a profit of Rs 13,750.44 crore a year back, according to a company filing. Net profit also declined sequentially, when compared to an earning of Rs 11,570.82 crore in March quarter. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) posted 90 per cent drop in profit to Rs 633.94 crore as compared to an earning of Rs 6,765.50 crore in April-June 2023 and Rs 2,709.31 crore in the preceding March quarter. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) net profit dropped to Rs 2,841.55 crore in April-June from Rs 10,644.30 crore a year back and Rs 4,789.57 crore in January-March, its filing showed. The three fuel retailers made extraordinary gains from holding petrol and diesel prices despite a drop in cost. The price freeze was justified in the name of recovering losses they had suffered in the previous year when they did not raise retail prices despite a surge in cost. The gains arising from the price freeze were eroded with petrol and diesel prices being cut by Rs 2 per litre each just before general elections and a fall in refining margins. Also, the three had uncompensated <keyword id="20866844" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="LPG-subsidy" source="keywords">LPG subsidy</keyword> - IOC booking under-recovery of Rs 5,156.23 crore in April-June, BPCL Rs 2,015.10 crore and HPCL Rs 2,443.71 crore, according to the filings. As per an order of the oil ministry, when market determined price (MDP) of LPG cylinders is less than its effective cost to customer (ECC), oil marketing companies (OMCs) have to retain the difference in a separate buffer account for future adjustment. However, as on June 30, 2024, the three firms had a net negative buffer as the retail selling price was less than MDP. The three retailers IOC, BPCL and HPCL had reported record profits totalling about Rs 81,000 crore in FY24 (2023-24), which was far more than their annual earnings of Rs 39,356 crore in pre-oil crisis years. This is because they resisted calls to revert to daily price revision and pass on softening in rates to consumers on grounds that prices continue to be extremely volatile - rising on one day and falling on the other - and that they needed to recoup losses incurred in the year, when they kept rates lower than cost. IOC in 2023-24 posted a standalone net profit of Rs 39,618.84 crore compared to Rs 8,241.82 crore in 2022-23. While the company could argue that FY23 was impacted by the <keyword id="21626914" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-crisis" source="keywords">oil crisis</keyword>, the FY24 earnings are higher than even the pre-crisis years - Rs 24,184 crore net profit in 2021-22 and Rs 21,836 crore in 2020-21. BPCL posted a net profit of Rs 26,673.50 crore in FY24, higher than Rs 1,870.10 crore earnings in 2022-23 and Rs 8,788.73 crore in FY22. HPCL's 2023-24 profit of Rs 14,693.83 crore is compared with a Rs 8,974.03 crore loss in FY23 and a profit of Rs 6,382.63 crore in 2021-22, according to the filings. The losses in FY23 had led to the finance minister announcing Rs 30,000 crore equity infusion in the three firms. Mid-way through the year, that support was halved to Rs 15,000 crore. The support was to happen by way of equity infusion via a rights issue. But after the record profits of 2023-24, the equity infusion plan has now been scrapped. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had on February 1 last year, while presenting the annual Budget for the 2023-24 fiscal (April 2023 to March 2024), announced an equity infusion of Rs 30,000 crore in IOC, BPCL and HPCL to support the three state-owned firm's energy transition plans. In the interim budget that the finance minister presented in February this year ahead of the general elections, the capital support to the three oil companies was halved to Rs 15,000 crore. In the full budget for 2024-25, both plans have been scrapped. While other state-owned oil companies like Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and GAIL (India) Ltd too have lined up billions of dollars of investment to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, the equity support was limited to the three fuel retailers, which had suffered huge losses in 2022 when they held retail petrol, diesel and cooking gas (LPG) prices despite a spike in raw material (crude oil) prices, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The board of IOC and BPCL had last year approved rights issues to raise to Rs 22,000 crore and Rs 18,000 crore, respectively. The government was to participate in the rights issue. The three companies, which control roughly 90 per cent of India's fuel market, 'voluntarily' have not changed petrol, diesel and cooking gas (LPG) prices, resulting in losses when input costs were higher and profits when raw material prices were lower. They posted a combined net loss of Rs 21,201.18 crore during April-September 2022 despite accounting for Rs 22,000 crore announced but not paid LPG subsidy for the previous two years. Subsequent softening of international prices and government giving out LPG subsidies helped IOC and BPCL post annualised profit for 2022-23, but HPCL was in the red. In FY24, things changed dramatically, and the three firms posted record earnings.

After record profits, state-owned fuel retailers Indian Oil, BPCL and HPCL see profit slump in Q1

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US gas prices have dropped for 60 consecutive days, per Bloomberg.</li><li>It's the longest streak of declines in more than a year, according to the report.</li></ul>US gas prices have dropped for 60 consecutive days, notching their longest streak of declines in more than a year. The average gallon of gas in the US costs $3.25, about 30 cents less than the same time last year, according to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-27/gasoline-prices-drop-for-60-days-in-win-for-us-holiday-spending" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a>. In 14 states, one gallon costs drivers less than $3.That means Americans are saving some cash at the pump just as the critical holiday-shopping season kicks off. The streak of declines is also a welcome sign for the Biden Administration, which has tried to push the inflation-fighting might of "Bidenomics" in a bid for re-election in 2024. Gas prices have broadly tracked the price of crude oil, which have tumbled over recent weeks as OPEC+ grapples with <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-today-crude-opec-saudi-arabia-russia-economy-energy-2023-11?_gl=1*1la43c3*_ga*MjA5NTAyMzYyOS4xNjYyNDcwMDc5*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcwMTExMTkwNC4xNDMwLjEuMTcwMTExMjM4OS41My4wLjA.">Saudi Arabia's production cuts</a> and disagreements within the energy cartel over output.The group was meant to convene over the weekend, but pushed back its meeting to November 30.Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest-rate hiking since March 2022 has weighed on economic growth and consumer spending, which analysts point to as one reason contributing to softer oil and gas prices. On Monday, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate</a> dipped 0.8% to $74.92 a barrel, while <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, moved lower 0.7% to $80.03 a barrel.

US gas prices have tumbled for 2 months to notch their longest streak of declines in over a year

<ul><li>One of the biggest risks to the stock market and economy is a gasoline price shock, according to Carson Group's Sonu Varghese.</li><li>Gas prices are already up 23% year to date, and a further rise could reaccelerate inflation.</li><li>Low US inventories of refined oil products could lead to elevated price volatility during hurricane season.</li></ul>A potential gas price shock represents one of the biggest risks to the stock market and economy, according to Carson Group global macro strategist Sonu Varghese.He highlighted in <a href="https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/thinking-about-risks-to-the-outlook/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a Tuesday note</a> that gasoline prices have already risen substantially so far this year, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-gas-prices-oil-inflation-smile-mohamed-el-erian-2023-8">with the average retail price up 23% to $3.80 per gallon.</a>While that's still well below the June 10, 2022 peak of $5.00 per gallon, further increases in gas prices could curtail consumer spending and reaccelerate the pace of inflation.Prices at the gas pump are primarily driven by the price of crude oil, which makes up about 50% of the cost equation, according to the Energy Information Administration. But gas pump prices are also driven by the price differences between crude oil and refined products, known as "crack spreads."Crack spreads make up about 25% of the cost of a gallon of gas, while taxes, distribution, and marketing make up the remaining 25%.What worries Varghese is the fact that crack spreads have surged over the past few months, similar to what they did in 2022 when gas prices hit records. "Crack spreads usually rise when there's not much inventory of refined product, i.e. low stocks of gasoline, diesel, and even jet fuel. This is due to various reasons, including refinery closures and lack of investment in capacity," he explained.With US petroleum inventories below 2015-2019 averages, that could leave the gasoline market vulnerable to a supply shock that would ultimately drive prices higher.<div type="image" title="Gas inventories" height="732" width="609" msid="103185416" hostid="261"></div>"This is what happened when Russia invaded Ukraine. We got another reminder of this last week, when a storage tank caught fire at an oil refinery in Louisiana, the third largest in the US," Varghese said. His big worry is <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-gas-prices-oil-inflation-smile-mohamed-el-erian-2023-8">that surging gas prices can have a negative knock-on effect</a> on the broader economy. That's because higher gas prices at the pump weigh heavily on consumer sentiment and can lead to curtailed spending.Meanwhile, higher prices can drive a reacceleration of inflation as gas is a key input into many industries, including food delivery costs. Airplane fares are also highly sensitive to the price of fuel.A reacceleration in inflation would likely lead the Federal Reserve to maintain its tight monetary policy stance and hike interest rates further. Rising gas prices "immediately becomes a problem for two reasons in particular: It may force the Fed to react and raise rates again, and quickly, [and] it reduces households' real income," Varghese said. "We saw both play out last year. The economy was resilient enough to get through it, but I'd rather not see the economy battle through that again."While he remains bullish on the outlook for the stock market and economy, he does worry that another gasoline price shock could serve as a big headwind for investors and consumers.

A spike in gas prices is one of the biggest risks to the stock market and economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US gas prices just surged to their highest level since October 2022, fanning fears of a rebound in inflation. </li><li>The national average for a gallon of gas traded at $3.86 after jumping towards $4 earlier on Monday. </li></ul>US gas prices hit a 10-month high Monday, rising toward $4 a gallon, threatening to put upward pressure on inflation. The national average for a gallon of gas traded at $3.86 after jumping to $3.96 earlier on Monday, <a href="https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to AAA</a>. The surge in fuel costs comes as global oil prices climb, largely spurred by supply cuts by key producers including <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-oil-price-outlook-cristiano-ronaldo-newcastle-liv-golf-2023-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets" rel="">Saudi Arabia</a> and Russia. Both benchmark Brent crude and the West Texas Intermediate are currently trading north of $80 a barrel.Rising fuel prices are likely to put upward pressure on US inflation through August, according to market expert Charlie Bilello."Gas Prices in the US rise to their highest levels of the year @ $3.96/gallon. What was a big tailwind for CPI in May/June (negative YoY commodity prices) was less of a tailwind in July and much less thus far in August. US inflation rate will likely increase again in August," the chief market strategist at Creative Planning <a href="https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1691238345102282753" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said in a post on X</a>. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-inflation-economy-cpi-july-data-2023-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Inflation ticked up in July</a> after a year of declines, rising to an annual pace of 3.2% from 3% in June. That's despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hiking campaign since early 2022. The central bank has elevated benchmark borrowing costs from near-zero levels to upward of 5% in a bid to cool inflation. While the policy efforts have significantly tamed price pressures, the central bank has hinted more rate hikes could be on the horizon in a bid to bring down inflation to its 2% target. Top economist Mohamed El-Erian recently weighed in on the threat of rising gas prices, saying it's fueled worry about an inflation <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-gas-prices-oil-inflation-smile-mohamed-el-erian-2023-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">"smile"</a> in the US, "that is, the current fall in headline inflation giving way to a stabilization and then a move back up in the fourth quarter of the year."

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