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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Major Wall Street analysts are warning of more headwinds for Chinese stocks next year, even amid stimulus.</li><li>After an initially positive reaction, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are turning more bearish.</li></ul>China's stock market is likely headed for tougher times ahead, at least according to a few prominent Wall Street firms.Strategists from the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have recently cut their outlooks, warning of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-growth-consumer-spending-demand-real-estate-debt-crisis-2024-8#:~:text=The%20world's%20second%2Dlargest%20economy,%2C%20falling%20short%20of%203.9%25.">slowing growth</a>, even as China's top leaders continue to unveil stimulus measures meant to reinvigorate its slowing economy.Goldman Sachs cut its year-end 2025 target on the MSCI China Index from 84 to 75, keeping its overweight rating on the stocks but citing potential for lower earnings growth as a result of US tariffs. The index traded at roughly 64 on Monday.Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, has a target of 63 by the end of next year. The firm had taken away its underweight rating on the index back in October, pointing to a better policy outlook.The shifting outlook comes as the country has rolled out stimulus measures to address persistent economic challenges like its slumping <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-outlook-home-prices-slumped-beijing-property-crisis-real-estate-2024-4">property market</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-household-deposits-savings-luxury-consumer-demand-slowdown-economy-outlook-2024-7">weak consumer sentiment</a>.The analysts had initially seemed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-stimulus-plan-wall-street-stock-market-economy-2024-9">optimistic</a> after the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">first round of stimulus</a> announced in September. Both firms upgraded their ratings on Chinese stocks in the weeks after, with Goldman Sachs analysts upgrading their stance to overweight, while the Morgan Stanley strategists changed their rating from underweight to neutral.Traders took note. The MSCI China Index hit its highest in over two years at the end of September, but in the time since, the index has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stock-markets-csi300-golden-week-reopening-bazooka-stimulus-outlook-2024-10">now fallen</a> some 15% as analysts wonder how much more <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-li-qiang-fiscal-stimulus-market-sentiment-us-election-2024-11">stimulus</a> is left."We see a low limited chance that China's government will front-load enough fiscal stimulus to target consumption and housing in 2025 due to concerns over moral hazard and a premature transition into a 'welfare state,'" Morgan Stanley strategists wrote in a Sunday note, adding, "We expect even stronger headwinds on corporate earnings and market valuation in the coming months."The analysts are also pricing in tariff risks from Donald Trump's US election win. Trump has proposed sweeping tariffs, including steep 60% duties on Chinese goods. They acknowledge, though, that with the actual extent of the tariffs yet to be finalized, there is still a great deal of uncertainty."The magnitude, profile, timing of the tariffs, and the resulting policy reactions from China make the situation more fluid and difficult to analyze," the Goldman analysts wrote."The only certainty is that it will be the overarching theme driving market volatility in the months ahead, and investors will monitor the tariff developments closely to dynamically adjust their views on the market," they added.

Wall Street is cutting outlooks for Chinese stocks just weeks after a stimulus blitz

<div type="image" title="In case RBI is in the mood to hike the interest, your home loan EMIs might end up taking more from your pockets. Or, if it leaves the rates unchanged, your EMIs wont budge one bit" msid="114284206" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;In case RBI is in the mood to hike the interest, your home loan EMIs might end up taking more from your pockets. Or, if it leaves the rates unchanged, your EMIs wont budge one bit&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> On September 18, 2024, the <keyword id="19951097" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-fed" source="keywords">US Fed</keyword> delivered a jumbo-sized surprise to the global economy. Not only did they trim their interest rates by a massive 50 basis points to bring their yields down to 5%, but also hinted at further rate cuts in the upcoming months. This move from the fed and several other central banks globally had pushed expectations high for a similar rate slash closer home, from the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> this month. But governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword>, in a “picture abhi baaki hai” moment, decided to hold the repo rates here steady, leaving them unchanged at 6.5% for the record 10th straight time. Although, he did tinker with the policy stand, changing it from “rate cuts are absolutely off the table” to a more accommodating “we’re okay with bringing down the rates, if needed”. This, rather neutral, stance from India’s financial custodian sparked hopes for a rate cut in December this year. However, the stubborn <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> levels in September have again dented such hopes. As consumers, you may be wondering what all the hullabaloo this is about, since it hardly makes a difference to your regular financial routine. Well, the majority of both economic growth and inflation is closely connected to this policy stance from the central bank and it does have a rather indirect effect on both our earnings and spending. But more directly, it would have clear implications for those looking to own a house. Even the slightest modification of interest rates, or the lack of it, influences the <keyword id="19916018" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="emi" source="keywords">EMI</keyword> you pay significantly. So, all aspiring homebuyers, is this the right time to take out a loan and buy a house? Can you expect a rate cut anytime soon, and what will that mean for your home-owning dreams? We lay it out. <h2>What’s the connection?</h2>You see, buying a house is no small feat, at least financially. The task becomes even more herculean if you are scouting for your own roof in cities like Delhi, Noida, Bangalore or Mumbai where, as Circuit from Munnabhai says, “room shuru hote hi khatam ho jata hai”. Naturally, you’ll have to take a <keyword id="6354730" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Home-loan" source="Orion">home loan</keyword> from the bank. Don’t be mistaken, the bank won't give you a loan that covers 100% of the value of the property you want to own. Rather, your loan amount will be equivalent to a certain percentage of the property’s total value. RBI’s guidelines on this are pretty clear: <ul><li>If your loan amount is up to Rs 30 lakh, you can get a loan worth 90% of the property’s value.</li></ul><ul><li>If the loan amount is between Rs 30 lakh and Rs 75 lakh, you are eligible for a loan worth 80% of the property’s value. </li><li>If you are taking a loan of more than Rs 75 lakh, your loan amount will be equivalent to 70% of the property’s value. </li></ul>Now assuming that you have the money, it's all about paying back the principal amount, but not without a little (read hefty) interest added on top. See, when you’re taking a home loan, you are actually signing up for a long-term, even multi-decadal financial commitment, which will unfailingly present itself to your bank accounts and finances every single month, in the form of EMIs, or equated monthly instalments). When you take a home loan, you can choose to pay the interest in two ways (talk about choices!). One is that you decide to keep a fixed rate of interest throughout the tenure of your home loan. So, if you opt for a 25-year fixed-rate home loan at the rate of 8.8% p.a., you’ll have to pay interest at this rate for the next 25 years, till your entire loan is paid off. Yes, you can go backsies and switch to a floating-rate home loan by paying a fee. Floating, as the name suggests, means that your interest rate is not set in stone. But starting October 2019, when it comes to a floating interest rate home loan, your payable interest and EMIs are directly impacted by any changes in <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword>, which were left unchanged by RBI this time around. Why are these two so chummy, you might ask. Well, <keyword id="173069" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Home-loan-interest" source="Orion">home loan interest</keyword> rates are a sum of two things: <ol><li>Repo Rate (the rate at which RBI lends money to banks)</li><li>Operational cost + margins</li></ol>Any plus or minus in this equation would send your home loan interests tanking, or skyrocketing. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat explains that any change in the repo rates impacts the cost of funds and thereby the home loan interest rates. “When the interest rates are expected to reduce, the corresponding impact will be in the form of a reduced EMI. Home loan borrowers should always try to borrow at a floating rate when interest rates are expected to reduce and at a fixed rate when the interest rates are expected to increase. This minimizes the outflow in the form of EMIs that the home loan borrowers will experience”, he continues. So, no change in repo rates means no change in your home loan interest payout and no financial relief whatsoever. A rate cut, which most experts are anticipating will start this December, would mean your EMI payments come down, and your wallet might save a little more. But there’s also a chance of an UNO reverse happening. In case RBI is in the mood to hike the interest, your home loan EMIs might end up taking more from your pockets. Consider this. You took a floating interest rate home loan worth Rs 50 lakh in January 2022 at 8% p.a., for a period of 20 years. This brings your total monthly EMI to Rs Rs 41,822. But, as luck would (or won't) have it, RBI raised the interest rate by 250 basis points between May 2022 and February 2023, bringing it to its current status of 6.5%. Some back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that now, your home loan interest payout will also rise by a hefty 2.5%, taking the total to 10.5%. In other words, you’ll have to dish out Rs 49,919 per month as EMI. Now, won't you heave a sigh of relief if the RBI were to bring down the interest rate by say, even 50 basis points, or 0.5%? Agreed, your EMI will come down just marginally, to Rs 48,251. But look at this over a 20-year period, and you’ll see how big the difference is. <h2>Are rates set to change anytime soon?</h2>Generally, RBI hikes the repo rates if it sees inflation spiralling out of control. Then, in a bid to reduce consumer spending, it raises interest rates to make borrowing expensive. But when the apex bank sees sluggish consumption in the economy, inflation in control and wants to boost spending, it slashes down on interest rates, making it more lucrative for people to borrow. As of now, most experts are not anticipating any changes in the interest rates anytime soon. This means home loans are not getting cheaper anytime soon. The CPI data, which came out yesterday, saw inflation rise to 5.49% in September, compared to 3.65% last month. Food and beverage prices jumped to a four-month high of 8.36% in September, as opposed to a 5.3% rise in August. So a rate cut seems a no-go at the moment! Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities explains that the RBI had probably expected a hardening of inflation and that's why it chose to hold on to the rates in the monetary policy announcement last week. “Now, it seems that RBI will take a cautious stance going ahead and will not be in a hurry into rate cuts like its global peers”, he added. In all this, one thing is clear, in the grand movie of the Indian economy, the RBI has chosen stability over drama. And just like in every good Bollywood film, we're left wondering what twist the sequel will bring. Until then, it might be “The End" for rate cuts, but the show must go on for the Indian economy!

Simply Put: Boom or bust — how RBI’s decision to leave rates unchanged affects homebuyers

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as traders took inflation data and the outlook for rates.</li><li>Inflation rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on a yearly basis, in-line with expectations.</li></ul>The latest inflation data dented some of the momentum of the post-election stock rally, with traders focusing on the latest consumer price index reading at its implications for rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up slightly, while the S&amp;P 500 ended the day nearly flat. Bond yields were little changed, with the 10-year Treasury yield up one basis point to 4.449%. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">Inflation was slightly higher</a> year-over-year in October compared to the prior month, but was on par with economists' expectations. Consumer prices rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on an annual basis, higher than last month's 2.4% increase.Investors solidified bets on another rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting. Markets see an 82% chance that the central bank will trim interest rates another quarter-point next month, up from 59% on Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Traders are less certain about another rate cut in January. The odds of another 25 basis point cut at the Fed's January meeting have dropped to 29%, down from 69% a month ago."Inflation data mostly support another rate cut at the Fed's December decision," Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, said in a note. "The Fed will wait until they have more clarity about the timing and scope of policy changes from the next President and Congress before reacting to them.""The Fed wants to avoid the mistakes of the past by prematurely easing and risking a second wave of inflation, so we'd expect the FOMC to take this risk seriously," Jason Pride, the chief of investment strategy &amp; research at Glenmede, said in a note. "This doesn't take a rate cut off the table for December, but it's certainly not a slam dunk."The rally fueled by Trump's election began to stumble, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edging slightly into the red.Crypto markets, though, continued to get a boost after Elon Musk, a close ally of Trump, was appointed as co-head of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dogecoin-price-elon-musk-doge-department-trump-crypto-president-election-2024-11?_gl=1*j5rjww*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUyNDI1NS41NTYuMS4xNzMxNTI0MjY2LjQ5LjAuMA..">Department of Government Efficiency</a>, or "DOGE." <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/doge-usd">Dogecoin</a> spiked another 15% on the news, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">bitcoin</a> rose as much as 6% before paring its gains, surpassing the $90,000 threshold for the first time ever before dipping back below to about $88,000 later in the day. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,985.38, up 0.02%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,958.19, up 0.11% (+47.21 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,230.74, down 0.26%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>Here's what people are betting in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-markets-jake-paul-mike-tyson-bitcoin-trump-2024-11?_gl=1*4l4ww*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUxNTY1NS41NTUuMS4xNzMxNTE4NTU0LjU2LjAuMA..">prediction markets</a> now that the election is over.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-upside-blackwell-rubin-apple-iphone-moment-2024-11">Nvidia is approaching its iPhone moment</a> with its Blackwell chip, and the stock could soar another 25%, an analyst said. </li><li>Trump could push <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-us-debt-levels-government-borrowing-treasury-blackrock-rick-rieder-2024-11">US debt to levels</a> that can't be ignored within his first year in office, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 0.09% to $68.08 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.46% to $71.95 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slipped 0.87% to $2,575.98 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was up one basis point to 4.449%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> slipped to $88,615.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors assess rate outlook after new inflation data

Corporate <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword> reported the strongest <keyword id="6357342" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="hiring" source="Orion">hiring</keyword> sentiments globally for the next three months, with 37 per cent of employers planning to increase their staff strength as businesses are bullish about the country's economic position, a survey said on Tuesday. According to the ManpowerGroup <keyword id="6355127" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment" source="Orion">Employment</keyword> <keyword id="20206852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="outlook" source="keywords">Outlook</keyword> Survey Q4, 2024, of nearly 3,150 employers across sectors and regions, the <keyword id="20449001" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-employment-outlook" source="keywords">Net Employment Outlook</keyword> in India is the strongest worldwide at 37 per cent, followed by Costa Rica (36 per cent) and the US (34 per cent) in the second and third place respectively. The Net Employment Outlook (NEO) is calculated by subtracting the percentage of employers who anticipate reductions to staffing levels from those who plan to hire. The India employment outlook for Q4 (October-December) stood at 37 per cent, up 7 per cent from Q3 2024, and unchanged when compared with the same time last year. "The hiring intention of employers signifies the positive outlook in the country's economic position that has been reinforced by exports as a result of multilateral foreign policies and large-scale infrastructure development. Coupled with this, is our demographic advantage that is expected to boost our competitiveness in the global market," said <keyword id="20933727" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sandeep-gulati" source="keywords">Sandeep Gulati</keyword>, Managing Director, <keyword id="20841782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="manpowergroup-india" source="keywords">ManpowerGroup India</keyword> and Middle East. According to the survey, employers across all sectors report net positive hiring intentions with the financial and real estate industry having the strongest outlook of 47 per cent, followed by information technology (46 per cent), industrials and materials (36 per cent) and consumer goods and services (35 per cent). The least optimistic prospects were witnessed in the communication services (28 per cent). The survey further noted that the Northern region of India continues to dominate the job demand with an outlook of 41 per cent followed by the West (39 per cent). Gulati further noted that "India is expected to focus on its high domestic consumption, economy-booster government schemes, increasing demand for outsourcing services and manufacturing boom. "With increased focus on skill development to meet market demands, India may be able to reduce unemployment and fasten the pace of economic development by creating a more capable and adaptable workforce that meets the needs of the emerging industries." Hiring managers across the Asia-Pacific countries anticipate the second strongest regional Outlook at 27 per cent, an increase of 4 per cent from the previous quarter but decreased when compared to the same time last year. India, Singapore, and China continue to report the strongest employment outlooks in the region. The most cautious employment outlooks were reported by employers in Hong Kong (8 per cent). Survey responses were collected from July 1-31, 2024, and 40,340 employers across 42 countries were asked about their fourth-quarter hiring intentions.

Indian employers most bullish globally on Oct-Dec quarter hiring: survey

Amid the ongoing geopolitical tension, the <keyword id="19904988" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="energy-sector" source="keywords">energy sector</keyword> will continue to face challenge while the <keyword id="20468174" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-goods" source="keywords">consumer goods</keyword>, automotive, healthcare is set to expand in 2025, highlighted a report 'Industry Outlook 2025' by <keyword id="20618515" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economist-Intelligence-Unit" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Economist Intelligence Unit" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Economist Intelligence Unit">Economist Intelligence Unit</keyword>. The report noted that the Fossil fuel markets will continue to face risks from geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine. However, investments in <keyword id="19895602" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="renewable-energy" source="keywords">renewable energy</keyword> will remain strong, especially in China, as the world pushes toward cleaner and more sustainable energy sources. The report said "Fossil-fuel markets will continue to face <keyword id="20064250" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-risks" source="keywords">geopolitical risks</keyword> amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, but investment into renewables will remain strong, particularly in China." It also added that the financial sector faces a mixed outlook with falling interest rates anticipated to narrow bank profit margins, potentially leading to smaller dividend payouts for shareholders. Yet, regulatory easing could provide relief, with the Basel III endgame likely seeing further delays, softening the impact on banking institutions amid a challenging economic landscape. For the consumer goods and retailing the report added that the Global retail volumes are forecast to grow by 2.2 per cent in 2025, thanks to easing inflation. However, stricter regulations on online retailing will target high-volume, low-price retailers, to ensure fair competition and consumer protection. It said "Global retail volumes will expand by 2.2 per cent, helped by disinflation, but regulations around online retailing will tighten further" As per report, the <keyword id="20359760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="automotive-sector" source="keywords">automotive sector</keyword> is set for a record year, it said "After a difficult few years, annual new-vehicle sales will reach a record 97.2m units in 2025. This includes a 2 per cent rise in new car sales, a 4 per cent increase in commercial vehicle sales, and a significant 16 per cent growth in <keyword id="19963112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-vehicle-sales" source="keywords">electric vehicle sales</keyword>, reflecting the sector's recovery and the shift toward cleaner mobility. In technology the report added more countries will adopt satellite internet, although the primary users will be enterprise clients, including military and maritime sectors. Amazon's Project Kuiper will challenge the existing market dominance of Starlink and EutelSat OneWeb, offering more competition and potential growth in satellite connectivity. The resulting tensions will continue to affect investment into production and market entry, with companies taking advantage of government incentives to build out more flexible supply chains. <keyword id="23684177" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment-in-technology" source="keywords">Investment in technology</keyword>, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), will also be strong as projects gather pace. However, technology companies will face pressure from several directions as regulations tighten (particularly in Europe), investors become more impatient for profits and their energy usage comes under more scrutiny.

Consumer goods, auto and healthcare sector to expand but energy may face challenge in 2025: Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed as investors looked ahead to the central bank's meeting minutes.</li><li>The release will offer more insight into what the Fed is thinking about monetary policy and inflation.</li></ul>US stocks were mixed early Wednesday as traders looked ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting, which should give further guidance on the path of interest rates for the rest of the year. All three benchmark indexes traded slightly in the red, while bond yields were up slightly. Investors will be parsing through the Fed's latest meeting minutes later on Wednesday, which will give more insight into what central bankers are thinking about the economy and the trajectory of rate cuts this year and beyond. Monetary policy is in focus after an unexpectedly hot job report in September, fueling doubt over whether the Fed will issue another jumbo rate cut this year."The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due, and should be fascinating," Paul Donovan, the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note. "The tone of the Fed minutes should not change expectations of further rate cuts—the Fed is still scrambling to catch up with inflation slowing in the US, and started cutting rates late. But expectations about the pace of easing may be set by the minutes."According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, the Fed is more likely to begin cutting rates in 25-basis-point increments rather than issuing another 50-basis-point rate cut."Even so, we still think the FOMC is putting undue emphasis on the current strength of the economy rather than the direction of travel and the lagged impact of earlier tightening still in the pipeline," economists at the research firm said in a note. "We expect a 25bp easing in November but think a soft run of jobs and activity data in Q4 and Q1 will soon have the Fed scrambling to avoid falling behind the curve."Central bankers will assess another jobs report and the September Consumer Price Index, which will be published Thursday morning, before making their next rate move. The inflation report will be a high-stakes data point for the Fed after the big September payroll report, with markets anxious that officials may have to turn their attention back to prices after pivoting to the labor market at their last meeting. Markets are pricing in an 88% chance the Fed will issue a quarter-point cut, while odds of another jumbo-sized cut have been slashed completely, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.Google parent Alphabet fell 1% in early trading as the US Department of Justice <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205.1052.0_1.pdf">indicated it could break up the tech giant</a>. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,752.93, up 0.06% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,194.38, up 0.27% (+114 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,150.47, down 0.18%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10?_gl=1*i6n3nu*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ3ODgzNS40MjMuMS4xNzI4NDgwNDc4LjMxLjAuMA..">The economy is facing a "no-landing" scenario</a> that could take away some relief from higher interest rates.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10?_gl=1*i6n3nu*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ3ODgzNS40MjMuMS4xNzI4NDgwNDc4LjMxLjAuMA..">Fed rate cuts were expected to push mortgage rates lower</a>, but the opposite has happened.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-q3-earnings-lower-rates-stocks-returns-outlook-bofa-2024-10">The bar for corporate earnings is low</a>. That's good news for stocks, as long as companies are feeling upbeat about rate cuts, according to Bank of America.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 2% to $72.06 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was fell 2% to $75.63 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slipped 0.39% to $2,612.00 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was about flat at 4.041%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> edged lower 0.8% to trade at $61,930.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed with Fed minutes and rate outlook in focus

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Luxury companies' sales are tanking in China due to slowing consumer demand.</li><li>Chinese consumers are putting their money into safe assets rather than spending it.</li></ul>Luxury sales are suffering in the <a target="_blank" href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN&amp;most_recent_value_desc=true">world's second-largest economy</a> as Chinese shoppers cut back on luxury spending.Kering, the latest luxury brand to report earnings, said on Wednesday that it continued to see a "deceleration" in Asia-Pacific. The company <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gucci-kering-income-decline-stock-down-hit-china-sales-slump-2024-4">warned in April</a> that recurring operating income for the first half of the year would slide up to 45%, compared to the first half of 2023. Two-thirds of Kering's revenue comes from Gucci, which has been especially hard hit in China as customers eschew the brand's older designs and buy at a discount overseas.LVMH <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lvmh-earnings-china-luxury-consumer-spending-marketing-shopping-japan-currency-2024-7">reported</a> a 13% decline in revenue — down to 12.4 billion euros, or $13.4 billion — for Asia in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. While LVMH did not specifically break out revenue from China, the company has seen sluggish Chinese consumer demand, particularly in the second quarter, said chief financial officer Jean-Jacques Guiony on Tuesday.Consumer spending in China has been improving "more moderately than before COVID-19," Luca Solca, a luxury goods analyst at Bernstein, told Business Insider.Chinese shoppers' reluctance to spend more despite higher<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-second-quarter-gdp-growth-weak-demand-consumption-exports-2024-7"> disposable incomes</a> "produces a 'growth relay' of relatively muted proportion, where even high-quality companies have generated low single-digit growth," Solca said.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-luxury-retail-sales-slowdown-brands-fashion-2024-7">LVMH's peers</a> have similarly seen slumps in revenue from China. In its most recent quarter, Burberry's Chinese sales revenue declined 21% from last year. In recent earnings, Kering, Swatch, and Hugo Boss expressed challenges in engaging a Chinese market with softening demand.Richemont also was barraged by the weakening Chinese consumer demand. Last week, the parent company of brands including Cartier <a target="_blank" href="https://www.richemont.com/media/iljbpjkt/ad-hoc-announcement-pursuant-to-art-53-lr-fy25-q1-sales-for-the-first-quarter-ended-30-june-2024.pdf">reported</a> a 27% decline in revenue in the combined markets of China, Hong Kong, and Macau, dragging total Asia Pacific sales down by 18%.<h2 id="31963d30-a7de-4331-9ab6-23d53dc55766">Massive discounts and online shopping</h2>To try to boost sales, luxury brands have given <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/luxury-brands-slash-prices-in-china-burberry-marc-jacobs-2024-7">massive discounts</a> to Chinese consumers. Brands including Balenciaga and Versace slashed prices by an average of 40% and 50%, respectively, to Chinese customers, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-13/luxury-labels-slash-prices-50-to-lure-wary-chinese-shoppers">Bloomberg</a> reported last month. In early July, Marc Jacobs offered more than 50% discounts on Alibaba's upscale e-commerce platform, Tmall Luxury Pavilion, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/d304beae-9a75-432c-b3b6-006a70a64b93">FT</a> reported. Burberry, Balenciaga, and Marc Jacobs did not respond to earlier requests for comment.This step into e-commerce is a change for luxury retailers, which have traditionally abstained from listing products online to avoid associating their brand with quick and convenient shopping, Damien Yeo, an analyst at Fitch Solutions, told BI. They're likely trying to clear stock, which could degrade their brands as some third-party platforms sell their goods at big discounts, Yeo said.A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-household-deposits-savings-luxury-consumer-demand-slowdown-economy-outlook-2024-7">recent survey</a> by US investment bank TD Cowen suggested that Chinese consumers are spending less on luxury goods while spending more on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-lopsided-recovery-consumer-retail-spending-industrial-output-property-2024-5">overseas travel </a>and safe assets such as gold. The government is also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-wants-nepo-baby-get-rich-quick-influencers-gone-2024-5">campaigning</a> against "money worship," so consumers may be less likely to buy something splashy, part of a broader <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/luxury-goods-sales-slow-clothes-shoes-china-bain-company-travel-2024-6">cultural tilt</a> toward "luxury shaming."Luxury goods are still popular with wealthy Chinese shoppers — just not in China. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rich-chinese-flock-to-japan-in-search-of-luxury-bargains-2024-7">Japan</a> has been a popular tourist destination for the Chinese, thanks to the yen's 40-year low against the US dollar. This currency weakness has attracted "a big shift of business from Asia into Japan," said LVMH's Guiony on Tuesday. LVMH sales in Japan were boosted by 57% in the first half of the year, which Guiony attributed to a surge in Chinese tourists.Not all luxury brands are feeling the heat in China. Hermès saw a 17% spike in sales revenue in the first three months of the year due to its recession-resistant customer base, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-25/hermes-defies-luxury-slowdown-with-sales-jump-in-asia">Bloomberg</a> reported. Hermès is set to publish half-yearly financials on Thursday.

The luxury outlook in China just keeps getting worse

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wall Street analysts expect Amazon to deliver an earnings beat when it reports quarterly results on Thursday </li><li>Expanding growth in Amazon's cloud platform is a bullish driver, analysts said. </li></ul>Wall Street is gearing up for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amzn-stock">Amazon</a> to deliver strong quarterly financial results after the closing bell on Thursday, though uncertainty lingers about how the company might navigate a slowdown in consumer spending. Most analysts anticipate solid earnings and further upside for Amazon stock, driven by its cloud platform and advertising strength. Yet, concerns linger over slowing retail margins and Amazon's rising investments in other areas of its business. That includes Project Kuiper, Amazon's initiative to deploy thousands of satellites for an increased broadband network, as well as investments in AI.Here's what analysts are saying ahead of the company's earnings.<h2 id="7d0771bb-aa3e-412b-a84f-9826870e8bca">CFRA: Searching for investment balance</h2>CFRA considers Amazon a compelling multi-year profit and cashflow story, but the firm is cautious about near-term prospects. "Growth may not be linear due to a tepid consumer spending environment, lumpy AWS deal volume, and accelerated investments in areas like Project Kuiper, generative AI, same-day fulfillment, and Prime Video digital content."Analyst Arun Sundaram said this will translate into a "modest" third-quarter earnings beat. CFRA expects revenue to rise 10.5% year-over-year and GAAP operating profit to climb 36%. CFRA's estimates are at the upper end of Amazon's guidance range."Overall, investors will be looking for AMZN to strike the right balance of growth vs. investments," Sundaram said.The note said that while Amazon's operating margins are expected to continue growing into 2025, reinvestment into other areas of the business will slow this expansion.CFRA trimmed its Amazon price target to $219 a share on October 21, indicating 13% upside ahead.<h2 id="29d2fdf4-34f7-4afe-b90a-0a79ffeca902">Bank of America: Mixed results incoming</h2>BofA's Justin Post suggested investors brace for a mixed bag of third-quarter results.Bank of America views consensus revenue estimates as too high and predicts $157 billion for the quarter. However, the bank's outlook for operating profit stands above consensus views at $15 billion.The bank expects the quarter's leading growth drivers will include Amazon Web Services, the firm's AI-led cloud-computing platform. According to Post, margins here will likely be better than Wall Street is expecting"AI demand likely improved further in 3Q, and we think investors may be expecting 20% y/y growth for 3Q, which would suggest the largest 3Q in terms of sequential dollars added at $1.39bn," he said.Consumer spending uncertainty could be a concern, and BofA expects a slight deceleration in discretionary retail sales growth.The firm has a "buy" rating on the stock and a $210 price target, which implies an 8.3% gain from current levels.<h2 id="a9024ebe-7cb6-44b8-a728-de20774ef87c">JPMorgan: AWS acceleration leaves room for optimism</h2>JPMorgan cited Amazon's expanding cloud platform and solid store growth as key reasons to be bullish on the stock.The bank said easing optimizations, workload migrations, and AI's growing monetization will support further AWS acceleration through this year, leading to 20% growth year-to-date.In line with Bank of America, the firm anticipates third-quarter net sales to reach $157 billion, below consensus estimates of $157.3 billion. Meanwhile, retail profits in the last quarter faced headwinds, and consumers appear cautious about spending. Shoppers eager for a deal are weighing on Amazon's average selling prices, the bank said.JPMorgan has an "overweight" rating on Amazon and a $230 price target. This suggests an 18.6% upside from current levels.<h2 id="fb352aa7-bfbb-4165-82f3-89a50fc7ea22">Wedbush Securities: Don't worry about rising investment costs</h2>Wedbush Securities has cheered Amazon's growing cloud segment and a revenue shift toward high-margin advertising. Together, these should help offset headwinds brought on by the company's spending on investments elsewhere. "We think the risk/reward is attractive heading into results as investor expectations for 2H profitability have moderated, AWS growth continues to accelerate, and advertising momentum is building into 2025," a team of analysts led by Scott Devitt wrote.The firm said investors have toned down margin expectations due to Amazon's spending in new investment areas, such as Project Kuiper. While this may require more investment from the company over time, Wedbush doesn't expect it to impact profitability in the near-term.Wedbush reiterated its "outperform" rating and $225 price target, implying a 16% gain from current levels.<h2 id="e4b3e058-a63d-4251-8620-4b1f8f0899e3">Morgan Stanley: Bullish into 2025</h2>Analysts led by Brian Nowak focused on Amazon's fourth-quarter guidance, suggesting that the company's earnings before interest and taxes might come in lower than expected."We see AMZN's high and growing focus on lower-priced, lower-margin essentials driving merchandise margin pressure... which is holding back the near-term slope of its N. America retail profit ramp. Expected discounting in a competitive holiday season (and picky discretionary consumer) create further near-term uncertainty," they said.The bank expects fourth-quarter EBIT of around $17.5 billion, 1% below consensus expectations.But looking forward to 2025, the bank recommends sticking with the stock as retail pressures will be a short-term headwind. Corporate efficiencies and shipping costs will make lower-priced essentials profitable for the company through next year, the bank projected.Morgan Stanley has a $210 price target for the stock, representing upside of about 8% from Wednesday's share price.

Wall Street is bullish on Amazon earnings despite uncertainty around consumer spending, rising investment costs

India's economy is expected to grow at 7-7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year driven by robust economic fundamentals and continuity in domestic policy reforms, <keyword id="20006170" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Deloitte-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Deloitte India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Deloitte India">Deloitte India</keyword> said on Monday. The August update of <keyword id="19896400" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="deloitte" source="keywords">Deloitte</keyword>'s India Economic Outlook said several initiatives in the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="union-budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> 2024-25 toward improving agriculture productivity, creating jobs for the youth, and in manufacturing and addressing the challenge of access to finance for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), would help improve supply-side demand, curb inflation, and prop up <keyword id="20139791" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-spending" source="keywords">consumer spending</keyword>, especially in rural areas. Deloitte India Economist Rumki Majumdar said, India will witness robust growth in the second half after a period of uncertainty in the first six months of the year. "Key contributing factors include the continuity in domestic policy reforms, reduced uncertainties in the US post-elections, and more synchronous global growth within a low inflation regime. "Additionally, improved global liquidity conditions, as central banks in the West ease their monetary policy stance, will enhance capital flows and drive higher investments, particularly in the private sector," Majumdar said. Observing that strong economic fundamentals would drive <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> between 7 per cent and 7.2 per cent in FY25, the Economic Outlook report said effectively addressing the urban-rural consumer spending gaps, inflation, and employment concerns can significantly enhance the affordability of aspirational rural consumers. "The much-desirable policy pivot was evident in the Union Budget presented last month. Reducing the urban and rural spending gap in the coming years will ensure sustained consumer demand from a larger consumer base," it added. Deloitte India's growth projection is at par with that of RBI, which projected FY'25 growth at 7.2 per cent. It is higher than Finance Ministry's Economic Survey which estimated GDP expansion between 6.5-7 per cent. The <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword> grew at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24 fiscal year. The report further said despite strong growth, private consumption spending has remained modest over the past five years. The pandemic, high global and domestic inflation, consequent tightening of financial conditions, and the effects of poor agriculture output on rural demand seem to have capped private consumption growth in India. But a Deloitte research showed that India is witnessing distinct and broad-based shifts in consumption patterns. There is a broad-based shift in the composition of consumption towards more non-food and discretionary items, reflecting changing lifestyles and preferences that are here to stay. According to the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey, spending on discretionary goods and services (including conveyance) has gone up both in rural and urban India, with the former quickly catching up in spending on discretionary durable goods (including automobiles, electric and electronic goods) with the latter in just one decade. "Demand for processed food has been among the highest in most states, suggesting a shift towards ready-to-eat options. Rapid urbanization, increasing women's participation in the workforce, and enhanced marketing and availability are driving these changing dietary habits," the report said. According to Deloitte research, if increasing income in states results in a relatively equitable distribution and higher rural spending, businesses can tap into a larger proportion of the state's population that resides in rural areas. This gives businesses access to a large consumer base and a sustainable consumer spending demand, as compared to states with a widening gap.

Indian economy likely to grow at 7-7.2 percent in FY25,Deloitte India says

<div type="image" title="SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal" agency="ANI" msid="112275933" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal &amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>The Consumer Price <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">Inflation</keyword> in India is expected to remain around 5 per cent in the financial year 2024-25 except for September and October month, according to a research report by <keyword id="13222" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sbi" source="Orion">SBI</keyword>. The report also noted that the inflation outlook in India remains a critical focus for the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI). Recent data indicates that the <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) inflation rose to 5.08 per cent in June 2024, driven primarily by higher food and beverage prices. "CPI inflation is expected to remain below or close to 5.0 per cent in the remaining months, except for Sep'24 and Oct'24" said the report. The report also added that the monsoon season plays an important role in shaping food prices, and while the current monsoon has shown a satisfactory surplus, excess rainfall could lead to crop losses, adversely affecting food inflation. The RBI's ability to manage inflation expectations is crucial, especially as it navigates the delicate balance between supporting <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and maintaining <keyword id="19960158" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="price-stability" source="keywords">price stability</keyword>. "With monsoon progressing satisfactorily with 2 per cent surplus till date and progress of area coverage under Kharif crops showing 2.9 per cent yoy, we expect inflation to remain within RBI target in FY25. However, with La Nina getting precedence, excess rainfalls could result in crop loss and thus a negative impact on food prices" the report added. In response to the evolving economic landscape, the report mentioned that the RBI is likely to continue its stance of withdrawing accommodation. This approach aims to address inflationary pressures while ensuring that the economy remains on a growth trajectory. However, the central bank faces challenges in policy transmission, as deposit rates have shown downward rigidity despite a declining weighted average lending rate (WALR). This situation complicates the RBI's efforts to implement effective monetary policy. "Even though the Banks are chasing deposits to fund the incremental credit growth, RBI recent report suggests, the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loan decreased by 11 bps from the beginning of the year (i.e. from 9.43 in January'24 to 9.32 in June'24)" the report noted. Looking ahead, the RBI's decisions will be influenced by both domestic and global economic conditions. The potential for a recession in the US and geopolitical tensions could impact inflation dynamics in India. As such, the RBI's monetary policy will need to remain flexible and responsive to these external factors while striving to achieve its inflation targets and support sustainable economic growth. (ANI)

You Searched For "consumer outlook" and got 10 results

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The luxury outlook in China just keeps getting worse

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Wall Street is bullish on Amazon earnings despite uncertainty around consumer spending, rising investment costs

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Indian economy likely to grow at 7-7.2 percent in FY25,Deloitte India says

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SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal

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