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<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Good morning. Milton has strengthened once again into a Category 5 hurricane. Gas stations across Florida are already <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-gas-stations-out-of-fuel-before-hurricane-milton-landfall-2024-10">running out of fuel</a> as millions of people try to flee.In today's big story, we got our first interest-rate cut, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10">but it doesn't feel like it for many consumers</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Roblox is the latest target of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/roblox-stock-price-short-seller-hindenburg-report-gaming-inflated-metrics-2024-10">short-seller Hindenburg Research</a>.</li><li>Tech: The DOJ is considering asking a judge to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-search-antitrust-case-doj-remedy-alphabet-2024-10">break up Google</a>.</li><li>Business: Walt Disney World will temporarily <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-world-shut-down-hurricane-milton-florida-orlando-parks-2024-10">close its doors</a> for Hurricane Milton.</li></ul>But first, we're canceling the landing.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">So much for the help</h2><div type="image" title="Business person in a suit holding scissors, preparing to cut strings suspending a stack of cash, with a group of people standing below" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114087130" hostid="261" sizebytes="264596"></div>The US economy is having an Instagram vs. reality moment.Last month's interest-rate cuts were supposed to kick off a new era. After two years of battling inflation, the Federal Reserve finally claimed victory. More rate cuts were coming, which meant lower borrowing costs for everyone.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10">But the relief many were hoping for isn't materializing</a>, writes Business Insider's Jennifer Sor. Let's break down why.We finally got an interest-rate cut, but borrowing costs are still high. What gives? First off, last month's interest-rate cut wasn't going to provide immediate relief. It takes time for cuts to trickle down to consumers. The Fed also telegraphed the cut, so the market started pricing it in.That seems fair, but borrowing rates are still rising in some cases. Yes, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10">has gone up 47 basis points since the Fed cut rates</a>, writes BI's Matthew Fox.So the Fed cut rates but borrowing costs went up? How is that possible? You can thank the 10-year Treasury yield, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-outlook-impact-of-rate-cuts-10-year-treasury-yields-2024-9">which is a key benchmark used by</a> lenders. It went above 4% this week for the first time since August.I'm confused. Why is there such a discrepancy between the two? The Fed's rate is focused on the short-term while the 10-year Treasury reflects a longer-term view (hence the name). As a result, the 10-year bond yield can diverge from the Fed's benchmark rate.Gulp So what does the 10-year Treasury rising mean for the economy? Big picture, it's a good thing. Thanks to a stellar jobs report, investors have a positive view of the economy's future. But the downside is we shouldn't expect the slew of rate cuts investors were banking on. The economy will likely avoid a recession and not need the help.Is this a soft landing or a hard landing? Neither. It's considered a "no landing" because the economy remains strong, but in a way that risks reigniting inflation, which would hamstring the prospect of future stimulative rate cuts.What's with all the aviation metaphors? I don't know.OK, so at this rate, will I ever be able to buy a house? It's honestly not as bad as it seems. BI's James Rodriguez, who's covered the housing market for a while, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-ice-age-homebuyers-mortgage-rates-spring-real-estate-2024-10">has a piece on why the industry's ice age is starting to thaw</a>. There was a 34% year-over-year increase in active listings in September. More inventory will help unstick the economy.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>The Kremlin says <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kremlin-says-trump-sent-putin-covid-tests-pandemic-denies-calls-2024-10">Trump sent Putin COVID tests</a> during the pandemic, but denies subsequent calls.</li><li>Boeing's negotiations with union leaders <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-strike-negotiations-union-leaders-break-down-after-two-days-2024-10">break down 2 days after restarting</a>.</li><li>Exclusive: AI cloud startup Ori is in talks to raise up to $80 million in funding, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ori-gpu-ai-startup-talks-raise-funding-nvidia-2024-10">sources say</a>.</li><li>A surprising company <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/robotaxi-ridesharing-tesla-waymo-uber-2024-10">might beat Elon Musk</a> in the robotaxi race.</li><li>Influencers are swiping a new black card at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/influencer-marketing-startup-oth-network-pays-creators-products-services-2024-10">restaurants, spas, and fitness studios</a>.</li><li>I don't allow Roblox in my house. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/roblox-not-allowed-my-child-kids-why-explained-2024-10">Here's why</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of wave hitting Florida park" height="1000" width="2000" msid="114087135" hostid="261" sizebytes="112966"></div><ol><li>The Hurricane Milton trade is in full effect, according to US natural gas futures. Energy traders are betting the storm barreling toward Tampa will cause power outages in multiple states. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/hurricane-milton-power-outage-florida-electricity-natural-gas-prices-futures-2024-10">Futures on US natural gas have dropped 8% over the past few days</a> as power plants are expected to be left idling as demand evaporates.</li><li>A short-seller takes aim at Roblox for "lying to investors." Hindenburg Research accused the online gaming platform of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/roblox-stock-price-short-seller-hindenburg-report-gaming-inflated-metrics-2024-10">inflating its user numbers</a> by including bots and players with multiple accounts. It also called Roblox a "pedophile hellscape," claiming child users are exposed to grooming and pornography. A Roblox spokesperson said in a statement it "totally" rejected the claims made in the report.</li><li>Bank of America is bullish on stock gains ahead of this earnings season. "The bar isn't high," BofA analysts said in a Tuesday note. Stocks should rise as long as companies report they're <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-q3-earnings-lower-rates-stocks-returns-outlook-bofa-2024-10">feeling good about lower rates</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Vinod Khosla" height="900" width="1200" msid="114087136" hostid="261" sizebytes="76966"></div><ol><li>OpenAI's exec exodus might actually be a good thing, Vinod Khosla says. The legendary investor backing OpenAI has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-vinod-khosla-fixing-ai-image-2024-10">plenty of confidence in the startup</a>, even after multiple high-profile exits. He also thinks the AI industry is catching strays from "Luddites" — those who think the tech is a slippery slope into a Westworld-ian apocalypse.</li><li>The DOJ may seek to break up Google. After a major antitrust lawsuit against Google, a federal judge ruled that it illegally monopolized online search. Now, prosecutors are proposing "behavioral and structural remedies." If enacted by a judge, the changes could <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-search-antitrust-case-doj-remedy-alphabet-2024-10">force a major reorganization or even a breakup</a> of some of Google's basic businesses, including its search engine.</li><li>Where are the Gen Z Mark Zuckerbergs? Gen Zers, aged 13 to 27, haven't produced any big-name tech founders like previous generations. But don't just blame it on Zoomers' blasé attitudes toward work — <a target="_blank" href="https://businessinsider.com/gen-z-tech-founder-gap-zuckerberg-bezos-holmes-2024-10">there's a bigger reason</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="A screenshot of zara.com" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114087133" hostid="261" sizebytes="93076"></div><ol><li>Zara's bizarre website is the secret to its success. The site, which feels more like a magazine spread than an online retailer, is routinely roasted for being "virtually unusable." But experts say <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zara-website-memes-mocked-secret-success-aspirational-luxury-consumers-2024-10">there's a method to Zara's madness</a>: It's meant to project an upscale image, distancing itself from other fast-fashion brands.</li><li>The "happiest place on earth" takes a rain check. There are literally storm clouds forming over Florida's family-friendly amusement parks, as the state braces for Hurricane Milton. It's a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-world-shut-down-hurricane-milton-florida-orlando-parks-2024-10">rare occasion for Disney World</a>, which has only closed its gates nine times in more than 50 years.</li><li>Tesla executives are hitting the exits. In the past week, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-loses-4-top-executives-ahead-of-robotaxi-event-2024-10">four of Elon Musk's direct reports have announced they're leaving</a>, or have already left, the company. Their departures come ahead of Robotaxi Day tomorrow, where Musk is tasked with convincing investors that Tesla is more than just a car company.</li></ol><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Hurricane Milton is projected to hit the west coast of Florida, including the Tampa Bay area.</li><li>Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting minutes and forecast published.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

Why the interest-rate cut isn't delivering the relief consumers were hoping for

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Wednesday, congratulated Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Governor, Shaktikanta Das for bagging an A+ grade rating in the Global Finance Central Banker Report Cards 2024. Prime Minister in a post on social media "X" said, "Congratulations to RBI Governor Shri @DasShaktikanta for this feat, and that too for the second time. This is a recognition of his leadership at the RBI and his work towards ensuring <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and stability." <keyword id="20850250" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-Governor-Das" source="keywords">RBI Governor Das</keyword> has been awarded the A+ grade rating for the second consecutive year. The Central Banker Report Cards, published annually by Global Finance since 1994, grade the central bank governors of nearly 100 key countries, territories, and districts, as well as the European Union, the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, the Bank of Central African States and the Central Bank of West African States. Grades are based on an "A+" to "F" scale for success in areas such as <keyword id="21364628" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation-control" source="keywords">inflation control</keyword>, economic growth goals, currency stability and <keyword id="22859834" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate-management" source="keywords">interest rate management</keyword>. "A" represents an excellent performance, down through "F" for outright failure. "Central bankers have waged war against <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> over the past few years, wielding their primary weapon: higher interest rates. Now, countries around the world are witnessing the tangible results of these efforts, as inflation has dropped significantly," said Global Finance founder and editorial director Joseph Giarraputo. The RBI has been successful in controlling the larger macroeconomic situations in the country. The apex bank is actively working to push economic growth through its <keyword id="20900764" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policies" source="keywords">monetary policies</keyword>. The RBI recently kept the the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5 per cent after the deliberations of the Monetary Policy Commitee meeting earlier this month. The move reflects the central bank's cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Announcing the monetary policy decisions, Das had said that the decision to keep the repo rate steady comes amidst persistent concerns about inflation, which remains above the RBI's target range. RBI Governor Das said that the inflation will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and global food prices have shown signs of easing in July. The Q1 <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of the next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent, as announced by the RBI Governor. India's retail inflation, after breaching 5 per cent in June, softened drastically in July. In line with the moderation in retail inflation, wholesale inflation in India too witnessed a sharp decline in July. The annual rate of inflation based on all India Wholesale Price Index (WPI) numbers is 2.04 per cent (provisional) for July 2024 (over July 2023).

PM Modi congratulates RBI Governor Das on A+ rating in Global Finance Report

The Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) has started its three-day monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting in Mumbai on Tuesday. The meeting will conclude on Thursday, when the RBI will announce its decisions on the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> and other matters. The repo rate, which has been maintained at 6.5 per cent since it was last increased in February 2023, is widely expected by experts to remain unchanged for the ninth consecutive bi-monthly policy review. Experts highlight that <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> in India remains above the RBI's target range, making it unlikely that the central bank will implement policy cuts until inflation reaches the target of 4 per cent. However, the expert added that the RBI may consider rate cuts in the October meeting. Banking expert Ashutosh Khajuria commented: "Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may continue to hold the policy signalling Repo rate and wait for <keyword id="19979707" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Inflation" source="keywords">Consumer Price Inflation</keyword> to decisively fall below 4 per cent, the target rate. For the present, the continuation of the current stance is widely expected. MPC in India may change the stance and rate action by the beginning of the second half of the year in their October meeting at the earliest." The experts also noted that while <keyword id="20196112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="core-inflation" source="keywords">core inflation</keyword> has been contained and commodity prices, particularly metals, have dropped by 15-20 per cent from their 2024 peak, food inflation remains a concern and needs to be closely monitored to ensure stability in overall CPI numbers. The Managing Director of a major bank, who preferred not to be named, told ANI: "During the last policy meeting we could see some voting in favour of a <keyword id="19920203" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cut" source="keywords">rate cut</keyword>. At the same time, we could see The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on July 11 said it is too early to talk on the interest rate cut due to the uncertain economic environment and inflation remaining close to five per cent. Considering both, our expectation is that the rate cut cycle may start from the next meeting and no change in <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> this time." RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had also emphasised in the last policy briefing that food inflation is still a concern and that the regulator is not in a hurry to make a decision on rate cuts. A recent report by the State Bank of India (SBI) also noted that Consumer Price Inflation in India is expected to remain around 5 per cent for the financial year 2024-25, except for the months of September and October.

Repo rate cut unlikely in ongoing MPC meeting, but RBI may change it during October policy review: Experts

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/renting-airbnb-not-passive-wont-do-it-again-2024-7">Airbnb</a> reported earnings after the market closed on Thursday.</li><li>CEO Brian Chesky pointed to multiple growth areas for the company.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/airbnb">Airbnb</a>'s third-quarter earnings report showed that the company keeps growing — and that 2025 will be the year it breaks into a new business.The short-term rental platform grew revenue and bookings during the quarter that ended September 30, it said after the stock market closed on Thursday. Executives said they're lining up long-term growth with its co-host program and an expansion beyond accommodations.Here are the highlights from the earnings report:<h2 id="06331326-417d-467b-843c-62561752f50c">Airbnb's third-quarter revenue grew despite a slow start</h2>Airbnb's revenue for the quarter rose 10% to $3.73 billion. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expected revenue of $3.72 billion. Earnings per share of $2.13 missed analysts' estimates of $2.14.Nights and experiences booked jumped 8% to 122.8 million from the same period in 2023. Bookings were slow early in the quarter but picked up later, CEO Brian Chesky said on Thursday's earnings call.Shares of Airbnb were 4% lower at $141.55 in after-hours trading on Thursday.<h2 id="8864efa4-c78c-476c-a7cc-e3f4be22aebc">Airbnb wants to get more people to list properties using co-hosts</h2>In October, Airbnb started offering its hosts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://news.airbnb.com/airbnb-2024-winter-release/">co-hosts</a>, or people who can help manage a property that's listed on Airbnb. The company launched its co-host network with about 10,000 people signed up for the role in 10 countries, Chesky said on the call.The goal, as Chesky said, is to make hosting on Airbnb less of a burden — and attract more hosts and properties to the platform. While many people are interested in listing their properties on Airbnb, many don't want to spend the time managing the property, the CEO said."That's why we asked ourselves, what if we could match people with homes that don't have time with people that have extra time but don't have homes?" Chesky said."Not only would this unlock more supply, I think in the coming years, this can unlock millions of listings," Chesky added.<h2 id="d263d6c5-cd68-4ad1-85bb-a25ad5cbd34c">Airbnb has plans for an AI chat assistant that will be able to cancel and rebook reservations for you</h2>Airbnb is rolling out an AI chat agent that can answer basic questions, Chesky said on Thursday's call. But the company sees opportunities for AI to do a lot more, he said.Chesky said that future versions of the chat agent will offer personalized options based on users' bookings. The result: An AI assistant that can see your upcoming reservation and cancel or rebook it for you.Eventually, the AI assistant could take care of most customer queries instead of traditional customer support agents, Chesky said. "We think, in the future, the vast majority of our chats are going to be intercepted and handled directly by the AI agent," Chesky said.<h2 id="7cf99a7d-08d7-4282-8d44-895e3d03acb0">Airbnb is planning to expand beyond short-term rentals next year</h2>Airbnb said in its press release that it will break into a new business next year, though the company didn't offer many details on Thursday."We'll remain focused on accelerating growth while preparing for Airbnb's next chapter, which will take us beyond accommodations," the press release read. "You'll see more on this next year."On the call, Chesky said that Airbnb's expansion would start "with the nearest adjacencies around travel" before going "far beyond travel" over the next decade. He declined to say exactly what Airbnb's plans are.Chesky compared the expansion to Amazon growing beyond its bookselling business by adding CDs, DVDs, and other consumer products in the late 1990s."What I expect is, every year now for the coming years, we will launch one-to-two new businesses that will generate a billion dollars or more of revenue incrementally a year," he said.Axel Springer, Insider Inc.'s parent company, is an investor in Airbnb.

The 4 most interesting things from Airbnb's earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>President-elect Donald Trump said he would implement tariffs on imported goods.</li><li>Economists said the proposals could boost inflation and raise prices for consumers.</li></ul>One of the first policies President-elect <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">Donald Trump</a> is expected to enact after being sworn into office is imposing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10#imported-goods">taxes on imported goods</a>.Many economists say these tariffs, as well as some of his other proposals, could kick-start another bout of inflation and interest-rate hikes.Trump has said that his proposals would not impact US prices. "I am going to put tariffs on other countries coming into our country, and that has nothing to do with taxes to us. That is a tax on another country," he said in an August speech.Some experts have argued <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-tarriffs-benefits-top-earners-study-2024-10">otherwise</a>. Economists and investors project that taxes imposed on imports will be passed on to American consumers in the form of higher prices. In an economic chain reaction, households would then pay higher interest rates on borrowing of all kinds as the Fed moves to tame that newly rekindled inflation.<h2 id="28eee089-e5e3-42d1-bc61-18122840af26">Ramping up tariffs from Trump's first term is expected to eat into Americans' wallets</h2>On the campaign trail, one of Trump's cornerstone proposals was a 60% <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/where-does-trump-vance-stand-on-china-tariffs-inflation-taxes-2024-7">tariff</a> on goods imported from China and a 10% to 20% tariff on imports from other countries.The US Census Bureau reported that broad tariffs would likely affect the prices of automobiles, drugs for human and veterinary use, food and beverages, furniture, and household appliances.Trump could announce these changes as soon as he takes office because they would not require congressional approval, but because implementation could take time, consumers would not see higher prices immediately.An <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/2024-09/wp24-20.pdf">analysis</a> from the nonpartisan Peterson Institute examined Trump's proposed 60% tariff on goods imported from China and estimated that it would boost inflation by 0.4 percentage points in 2025. The estimate does not include Trump's proposal for a 10% to 20% tariff on other imports.Markets are also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/surging-treasury-yields-after-trump-win-show-borrowers-may-not-get-relief-2024-11">expecting higher inflation</a> under Trump; bond yields surged following Trump's victory. That led to the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rising, meaning homebuyers are on track to see higher interest rates on loans.An <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/tpc-trump-tariffs-would-raise-household-taxes-and-slow-imports">analysis</a> by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center found that Trump's policies would decrease posttax incomes by an average of $1,800 in 2025. A separate <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.americanprogressaction.org/article/trumps-tariff-would-cost-the-typical-american-household-roughly-1500-each-year/">analysis</a> by the left-leaning Center for American Progress said that his tariff plans could cost the typical American household an extra $1,500 a year.Tariffs are typically used to raise government revenue and bolster domestic manufacturing. Trump enacted them in his first term as part of his "America First" policies, including a 25% tariff on Chinese goods that ultimately <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-war-risk-china-exports-great-depression-economy-2024-5">led to a trade war</a> between the two economies. While they did not significantly impact inflation, they did raise taxes for consumers. The Tax Foundation <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/where-does-trump-vance-stand-on-china-tariffs-inflation-taxes-2024-7">estimated</a> that Trump's tariffs during his first term amounted to a nearly $80 billion tax increase on Americans buying Chinese imports.Trump's win is also expected to influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions on interest rates. While it's too soon for the Fed to make any adjustments since Trump has not yet implemented any tariffs, members of the Federal Open Market Committee will likely begin discussing how Trump's future economic policies could affect consumers — including whether the central bank would need to hike interest rates in the future in response to inflationary pressure.The Fed is expected to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">cut interest rates by 25 basis points</a> on Thursday, and Fed chair Jerome Powell will likely offer some insight into the Fed's direction following Trump's victory.However, the future of the Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cut-trump-fed-powell-reaction-independence-history-2024-9">is uncertain under Trump</a>. The president-elect has previously suggested that he would like to have a say over interest-rate decisions, something presidents do not currently have. This raises the question of whether the central bank would continue to remain politically independent.Americans will likely learn more about what to expect from Trump as the year comes to a close. While Trump has maintained that his policies will help the economy and leave Americans better off, the Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-presidency-policies-inflation-economy-americans-joseph-stiglitz-letter-2024-6">previously told Business Insider</a> that the "general consensus" among experts is that "the Trump administration would be more inflationary.""The broad assessment of the consequences of that is that the Fed would be forced to raise interest rates, and all that combined would still serve to increase inflation even as unemployment increased and GDP slowed," he said.

Get ready for inflation and interest rates to rise again

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Raja Rajamannar, chief marketing and communications officer of Mastercard, is one of BI's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/most-innovative-chief-marketing-officers-2024-6">"Most Innovative CMOs"</a> of 2024.</li><li>Tapping into people's passions can inspire emotional connections with consumers.</li></ul>Marketers have long understood that emotion, not logic, drives most consumer behavior. A staggering 92% of purchasing decisions are driven by emotion, according to a Harvard Business School study. The idea dates all the way back to the 1950s, when television came to the fore and gave brands a groundbreaking medium for compelling, emotionally driven storytelling.Considering the profound advances in media, technology and connectivity since then, marketers are still strategizing about how to stir people's emotions. With attention more fragmented than ever, making a truly emotional connection has become a tall task. In this incredibly chaotic landscape, marketing leaders looking for a future-ready strategy are focusing on people's passions as a way to capture attention and affection — and achieve long-term growth.<h2 id="9ec2275f-ced8-47a4-97f9-c923b1aa3313">Focus on what unites us</h2>Defining your audience by its passions — and tapping into the positive emotions people associate with those passions — can be an effective way to connect in today's overwhelming environment. Instead of segmenting consumers by geography or age, targeting people by their passions like music, sports, food, or travel allows marketers to transcend traditional demographics.Recently completed proprietary research from Mastercard reveals just how powerful passions can be as a way to forge stronger connections with consumers. Three-quarters of people surveyed across eight markets say engaging in their passions is a part of their identity. Not only that, but passion-focused activities offer a form of stress relief and make them feel more like themselves, per the study. Music, often referred to as the universal language, is a prime passion category that unites and inspires. Take the recent<a target="_blank" href="https://www.contagious.com/news-and-views/cannes-lions-2024-entertainment-winners"> Johnnie Walker campaign</a> that aimed to give long-overdue recognition to the 88-year-old "forgotten mother of Bossa Nova" Alaíde Costa for her role in pioneering the smooth and rhythmic Brazilian music genre. It culminated in a Carnegie Hall concert, which she was denied decades ago. Powerful. The campaign went on to win a Cannes Lions Grand Prix in June in the music category.Mastercard embraces this passion-based approach to engage a wider audience in more meaningful ways. By focusing on what truly excites people, we're able to curate unique experiences for a broader range of cardholders, fostering deeper and more lasting connections. Our <a target="_blank" href="http://priceless.com">priceless.com</a> site offers a variety of special experiences, categorized by passion and available only with Mastercard.<h2 id="f850eeb1-dd6f-44f5-b754-0dc3fa74ed87">The proof is in the passion</h2>The days of brands brashly pushing ads on people are over. Consumers expect brands to add value to their lives, and marketers must be able to deliver on that expectation in new and dynamic ways. The research suggests a significant opportunity for brands: people want brands to act as an "incentivizer" in the passion space, rewarding them and helping them feel justified pursuing their passions.In fact, our survey data identifies eight key roles that brands can play to either accelerate consumers' passions or alleviate their frustrations — one of which is fostering shared connections around their passions. A prime example of this is how Nike taps into peoples' passion for wellness, which is ranked the second highest among those we surveyed, while strengthening community bonds. Nike has cultivated a global community through its <a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=dbba50699d99b1a6fd0474ee43e851742a7cae2f110133f30d422b3b1cdb97b9&amp;postID=670060ce0c43543ec7aada6f&amp;postSlug=consumers-passions-emotional-connection-stronger-marketing-strategy-growth-behavior-audience-2024-10&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nike.com%2Fnrc-app">Nike Run Club </a>app, which brings runners together virtually and physically. The app provides coaching, tracking, and social features, connecting people over their shared passions for running. They also host live running events and challenges to further foster this sense of community.<h2 id="ae05c97c-10b6-4f61-8e5a-6528f6327668">The complexity of emotion</h2>Traditional market research involves surveying people to understand their purchasing motivations. While this is effective in some cases, uncovering the emotions consumers associate with a brand or product is often too complex a task for this type of research. For instance, someone who prefers blue candy to green may attribute the preference to taste but, in reality, may be influenced by a positive association with the color itself. When consumers respond to surveys, they often overly rationalize or deliberate their reasoning, not capturing the complete emotional story.We must continue to find new ways to understand impact. One powerful solution is neuromarketing, which taps into neuroscience to understand the subconscious drivers of emotion. Neuromarketing can derive an abundance of data-driven insights from study participants, allowing us to discern consumers' emotional associations with logos, messages, storylines, colors, and more. By revealing how brands truly resonate with people, neuromarketing offers new opportunities to enhance the effectiveness of their campaigns.Inspiring an emotional response is an incredibly challenging task for marketers at a time when consumers feel bombarded by messages. By tapping into the interests people already identify with and feel connected to, brand leaders can step forward as purveyors of passion — creating emotional impact that consumers will never forget.

The power of passions: Tapping into consumers' emotional bonds

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.</li><li>It follows a 50-basis-point cut in September, with the pace of inflation continuing to cool.</li></ul>Another <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">interest rate cut</a> is headed Americans' way.On Thursday, the Federal Open Market Committee announced a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, following a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">50-basis-point cut</a> in September. It follows continued data showing inflation is nearing the Federal Reserve's 2% target — the consumer price index, a commonly-watched measure of inflation, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">rose 2.4%</a> over the year in September.This latest interest rate decision also came two days after Donald Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">won the presidential election</a>. Trump is expected to implement high tariffs once his term begins, and members of the FOMC will likely begin discussing the impact of the president-elect's policies on the economy and forthcoming interest rate decisions."A victory for Trump could raise doubts over a December cut, and the Fed may strike a more hawkish note as a result," Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at financial services firm Ebury, said in a statement last week.Trump's victory also throws into question the future of the Fed itself. Trump has previously said that he would like to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cut-trump-fed-powell-reaction-independence-history-2024-9">have a say in interest-rate decisions</a>, challenging the politically independent nature of the central bank.Fed chair Jerome Powell will likely offer more insight into the Fed's thinking following Trump's victory. He has expressed confidence in the economy's direction in recent months, saying during remarks in late September that "overall, the economy is in solid shape.""We intend to use our tools to keep it there," he said.However, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/october-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-11">recent jobs data</a> will make it difficult for the central bank to give a clear vision of its upcoming decisions. The economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, well below the 106,000 forecast, primarily because Hurricanes Milton and Helene — along with the Boeing strike — put people temporarily out of work, artificially driving down the employment figures.It will take time for Americans to feel the impact of interest rate cuts, given the lag in monetary policy, meaning credit cards, housing, and car loans won't see immediate relief.The 25-basis-point cut was in line with market predictions. Still, some Democratic lawmakers urged the Fed to implement another 50-basis-point cut to give Americans continued financial relief. On November 1, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and John Hickenlooper wrote in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/final_-_warren_hickenlooper_letter_to_fed_renovember2024ratecut.pdf">letter</a> to Powell that housing costs "are still too high," and bigger rate cuts are warranted."If the Fed moves forward with more rate cuts, housing prices and mortgage rates would thus also likely drop, allowing more families to achieve the American dream," they wrote.

The Federal Reserve gives Americans another interest rate cut

Amid the ongoing geopolitical tension, the <keyword id="19904988" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="energy-sector" source="keywords">energy sector</keyword> will continue to face challenge while the <keyword id="20468174" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-goods" source="keywords">consumer goods</keyword>, automotive, healthcare is set to expand in 2025, highlighted a report 'Industry Outlook 2025' by <keyword id="20618515" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economist-Intelligence-Unit" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Economist Intelligence Unit" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Economist Intelligence Unit">Economist Intelligence Unit</keyword>. The report noted that the Fossil fuel markets will continue to face risks from geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine. However, investments in <keyword id="19895602" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="renewable-energy" source="keywords">renewable energy</keyword> will remain strong, especially in China, as the world pushes toward cleaner and more sustainable energy sources. The report said "Fossil-fuel markets will continue to face <keyword id="20064250" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-risks" source="keywords">geopolitical risks</keyword> amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, but investment into renewables will remain strong, particularly in China." It also added that the financial sector faces a mixed outlook with falling interest rates anticipated to narrow bank profit margins, potentially leading to smaller dividend payouts for shareholders. Yet, regulatory easing could provide relief, with the Basel III endgame likely seeing further delays, softening the impact on banking institutions amid a challenging economic landscape. For the consumer goods and retailing the report added that the Global retail volumes are forecast to grow by 2.2 per cent in 2025, thanks to easing inflation. However, stricter regulations on online retailing will target high-volume, low-price retailers, to ensure fair competition and consumer protection. It said "Global retail volumes will expand by 2.2 per cent, helped by disinflation, but regulations around online retailing will tighten further" As per report, the <keyword id="20359760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="automotive-sector" source="keywords">automotive sector</keyword> is set for a record year, it said "After a difficult few years, annual new-vehicle sales will reach a record 97.2m units in 2025. This includes a 2 per cent rise in new car sales, a 4 per cent increase in commercial vehicle sales, and a significant 16 per cent growth in <keyword id="19963112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-vehicle-sales" source="keywords">electric vehicle sales</keyword>, reflecting the sector's recovery and the shift toward cleaner mobility. In technology the report added more countries will adopt satellite internet, although the primary users will be enterprise clients, including military and maritime sectors. Amazon's Project Kuiper will challenge the existing market dominance of Starlink and EutelSat OneWeb, offering more competition and potential growth in satellite connectivity. The resulting tensions will continue to affect investment into production and market entry, with companies taking advantage of government incentives to build out more flexible supply chains. <keyword id="23684177" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment-in-technology" source="keywords">Investment in technology</keyword>, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), will also be strong as projects gather pace. However, technology companies will face pressure from several directions as regulations tighten (particularly in Europe), investors become more impatient for profits and their energy usage comes under more scrutiny.

Consumer goods, auto and healthcare sector to expand but energy may face challenge in 2025: Report

A public interest litigation (<keyword id="19957723" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="PIL" source="keywords">PIL</keyword>) has been filed in the <keyword id="19905533" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bombay-High-Court" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bombay High Court" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bombay High Court">Bombay High Court</keyword>, urging the establishment of stringent guidelines to curb <keyword id="21811854" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="black-marketing" source="keywords">black marketing</keyword> and <keyword id="23311384" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ticket-scalping" source="keywords">ticket scalping</keyword> for major events. The PIL comes in the wake of widespread concerns over alleged irregularities during the online sale of tickets for the British band Coldplay’s upcoming concert in Navi Mumbai, scheduled for January 2025. Filed by advocate Amit Vyas, the PIL highlights the growing menace of ticket scalping and black marketing at large-scale events, including concerts, live shows, and sports matches. The plea calls for a thorough investigation into illegal ticket sales and the manipulation of online ticketing platforms, with specific reference to Coldplay's highly anticipated concert. The plea was mentioned on Monday for urgent hearing before a division bench comprising Chief Justice D. K. Upadhyaya and Justice Amit Borkar. Noting that a police inquiry into the matter was already underway, the court adjourned the hearing to November, after the Diwali vacation. <h2>Allegations of <keyword id="23627270" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ticketing-irregularities" source="keywords">ticketing irregularities</keyword></h2>The PIL specifically alleges foul play during last month’s sale of tickets for Coldplay's concert on the popular online ticketing platform, <keyword id="20215809" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BookMyShow" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="BookMyShow" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="BookMyShow">BookMyShow</keyword>. According to the petition, many potential buyers were locked out of the website within minutes of the ticket sales opening, only to discover that the tickets had been sold out. Shortly thereafter, these same tickets appeared on secondary platforms at exorbitant prices, fueling suspicions of deliberate manipulation. Vyas, in his submission, noted that secondary websites were still selling tickets at inflated rates. He argued that this exploitative practice deprived fans of their right to fair access to entertainment, violating the <keyword id="20003683" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-protection" source="keywords">Consumer Protection</keyword> (E-Commerce) Rules, 2020, which mandate fair and non-deceptive practices by e-commerce entities. The PIL underscored that this problem extends beyond the <keyword id="22044624" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Coldplay-concert" source="keywords">Coldplay concert</keyword>, pointing to similar issues during other major events, including the Indian Premier League (IPL) matches, the 2023 Cricket World Cup, and concerts of global artists like <keyword id="19897184" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="taylor-swift" source="keywords">Taylor Swift</keyword> and Diljit Dosanjh. In each case, fans were exploited through black market ticket sales, with prices soaring well above their official rates. According to Vyas, there is an urgent need for the government and judicial system to intervene, as ticketing platforms and event organisers are either complicit or failing to regulate secondary market sales effectively. <h2>Call for stricter guidelines</h2>The plea calls for the Bombay High Court to lay down stringent guidelines to prevent the black marketing and touting of event tickets. Vyas has asked for a framework that would ensure transparency and fairness in <keyword id="23627269" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="online-ticket-sales" source="keywords">online ticket sales</keyword> and reduce the exploitation of fans. The PIL emphasises that the lack of proper regulations in India’s ticketing sector has allowed platforms like BookMyShow to bypass rules, leaving consumers vulnerable to deceptive practices. It urges the court to consider the Consumer Protection (E-Commerce) Rules, 2020, as the basis for implementing stricter regulatory measures in the ticketing industry. <h2>Ongoing police investigation</h2>Following last month’s irregularities, Vyas lodged a police complaint with the Economic Offences Wing of the Mumbai Police, which is currently conducting an inquiry. The PIL has highlighted the need for a more immediate judicial intervention to prevent further exploitation in upcoming events. As the Coldplay concert approaches, the spotlight remains on the High Court’s response to this plea and whether it will pave the way for reforms that will bring much-needed transparency and accountability to India’s ticketing industry. The court is expected to hear the matter again in November. (With inputs from agencies)

Coldplay concert chaos aftermath: PIL filed in Bombay HC to demand stricter controls over online ticket sales

<div type="image" title="In case RBI is in the mood to hike the interest, your home loan EMIs might end up taking more from your pockets. Or, if it leaves the rates unchanged, your EMIs wont budge one bit" msid="114284206" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;In case RBI is in the mood to hike the interest, your home loan EMIs might end up taking more from your pockets. Or, if it leaves the rates unchanged, your EMIs wont budge one bit&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> On September 18, 2024, the <keyword id="19951097" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-fed" source="keywords">US Fed</keyword> delivered a jumbo-sized surprise to the global economy. Not only did they trim their interest rates by a massive 50 basis points to bring their yields down to 5%, but also hinted at further rate cuts in the upcoming months. This move from the fed and several other central banks globally had pushed expectations high for a similar rate slash closer home, from the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> this month. But governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword>, in a “picture abhi baaki hai” moment, decided to hold the repo rates here steady, leaving them unchanged at 6.5% for the record 10th straight time. Although, he did tinker with the policy stand, changing it from “rate cuts are absolutely off the table” to a more accommodating “we’re okay with bringing down the rates, if needed”. This, rather neutral, stance from India’s financial custodian sparked hopes for a rate cut in December this year. However, the stubborn <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> levels in September have again dented such hopes. As consumers, you may be wondering what all the hullabaloo this is about, since it hardly makes a difference to your regular financial routine. Well, the majority of both economic growth and inflation is closely connected to this policy stance from the central bank and it does have a rather indirect effect on both our earnings and spending. But more directly, it would have clear implications for those looking to own a house. Even the slightest modification of interest rates, or the lack of it, influences the <keyword id="19916018" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="emi" source="keywords">EMI</keyword> you pay significantly. So, all aspiring homebuyers, is this the right time to take out a loan and buy a house? Can you expect a rate cut anytime soon, and what will that mean for your home-owning dreams? We lay it out. <h2>What’s the connection?</h2>You see, buying a house is no small feat, at least financially. The task becomes even more herculean if you are scouting for your own roof in cities like Delhi, Noida, Bangalore or Mumbai where, as Circuit from Munnabhai says, “room shuru hote hi khatam ho jata hai”. Naturally, you’ll have to take a <keyword id="6354730" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Home-loan" source="Orion">home loan</keyword> from the bank. Don’t be mistaken, the bank won't give you a loan that covers 100% of the value of the property you want to own. Rather, your loan amount will be equivalent to a certain percentage of the property’s total value. RBI’s guidelines on this are pretty clear: <ul><li>If your loan amount is up to Rs 30 lakh, you can get a loan worth 90% of the property’s value.</li></ul><ul><li>If the loan amount is between Rs 30 lakh and Rs 75 lakh, you are eligible for a loan worth 80% of the property’s value. </li><li>If you are taking a loan of more than Rs 75 lakh, your loan amount will be equivalent to 70% of the property’s value. </li></ul>Now assuming that you have the money, it's all about paying back the principal amount, but not without a little (read hefty) interest added on top. See, when you’re taking a home loan, you are actually signing up for a long-term, even multi-decadal financial commitment, which will unfailingly present itself to your bank accounts and finances every single month, in the form of EMIs, or equated monthly instalments). When you take a home loan, you can choose to pay the interest in two ways (talk about choices!). One is that you decide to keep a fixed rate of interest throughout the tenure of your home loan. So, if you opt for a 25-year fixed-rate home loan at the rate of 8.8% p.a., you’ll have to pay interest at this rate for the next 25 years, till your entire loan is paid off. Yes, you can go backsies and switch to a floating-rate home loan by paying a fee. Floating, as the name suggests, means that your interest rate is not set in stone. But starting October 2019, when it comes to a floating interest rate home loan, your payable interest and EMIs are directly impacted by any changes in <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword>, which were left unchanged by RBI this time around. Why are these two so chummy, you might ask. Well, <keyword id="173069" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Home-loan-interest" source="Orion">home loan interest</keyword> rates are a sum of two things: <ol><li>Repo Rate (the rate at which RBI lends money to banks)</li><li>Operational cost + margins</li></ol>Any plus or minus in this equation would send your home loan interests tanking, or skyrocketing. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat explains that any change in the repo rates impacts the cost of funds and thereby the home loan interest rates. “When the interest rates are expected to reduce, the corresponding impact will be in the form of a reduced EMI. Home loan borrowers should always try to borrow at a floating rate when interest rates are expected to reduce and at a fixed rate when the interest rates are expected to increase. This minimizes the outflow in the form of EMIs that the home loan borrowers will experience”, he continues. So, no change in repo rates means no change in your home loan interest payout and no financial relief whatsoever. A rate cut, which most experts are anticipating will start this December, would mean your EMI payments come down, and your wallet might save a little more. But there’s also a chance of an UNO reverse happening. In case RBI is in the mood to hike the interest, your home loan EMIs might end up taking more from your pockets. Consider this. You took a floating interest rate home loan worth Rs 50 lakh in January 2022 at 8% p.a., for a period of 20 years. This brings your total monthly EMI to Rs Rs 41,822. But, as luck would (or won't) have it, RBI raised the interest rate by 250 basis points between May 2022 and February 2023, bringing it to its current status of 6.5%. Some back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that now, your home loan interest payout will also rise by a hefty 2.5%, taking the total to 10.5%. In other words, you’ll have to dish out Rs 49,919 per month as EMI. Now, won't you heave a sigh of relief if the RBI were to bring down the interest rate by say, even 50 basis points, or 0.5%? Agreed, your EMI will come down just marginally, to Rs 48,251. But look at this over a 20-year period, and you’ll see how big the difference is. <h2>Are rates set to change anytime soon?</h2>Generally, RBI hikes the repo rates if it sees inflation spiralling out of control. Then, in a bid to reduce consumer spending, it raises interest rates to make borrowing expensive. But when the apex bank sees sluggish consumption in the economy, inflation in control and wants to boost spending, it slashes down on interest rates, making it more lucrative for people to borrow. As of now, most experts are not anticipating any changes in the interest rates anytime soon. This means home loans are not getting cheaper anytime soon. The CPI data, which came out yesterday, saw inflation rise to 5.49% in September, compared to 3.65% last month. Food and beverage prices jumped to a four-month high of 8.36% in September, as opposed to a 5.3% rise in August. So a rate cut seems a no-go at the moment! Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities explains that the RBI had probably expected a hardening of inflation and that's why it chose to hold on to the rates in the monetary policy announcement last week. “Now, it seems that RBI will take a cautious stance going ahead and will not be in a hurry into rate cuts like its global peers”, he added. In all this, one thing is clear, in the grand movie of the Indian economy, the RBI has chosen stability over drama. And just like in every good Bollywood film, we're left wondering what twist the sequel will bring. Until then, it might be “The End" for rate cuts, but the show must go on for the Indian economy!

Simply Put: Boom or bust — how RBI’s decision to leave rates unchanged affects homebuyers

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of this year, less than the forecast.</li><li>This means the economy is still growing healthily — even if it was weaker than expected.</li></ul>In the third quarter, US economic growth fell short of expectations but remained strong.A news release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis said real gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of the year, less than the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/gdp-375">forecast</a> of 3%."The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending," the news release said. Consumer spending was a particular highlight, with personal consumption expenditures growing at a strong 3.7% annualized rate.Real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter and 3% in the second quarter.The weaker-than-expected GDP growth doesn't necessarily mean the US is heading toward a recession. There's still a lot of strength in the economy. Layoffs remain low and inflation-adjusted wage and income growth are back to their strong pre-pandemic trends.The presidential election is less than a week away, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-going-on-with-economy-jobs-inflation-election-voting-2024-10">the economy is top of mind for voters</a>. Additionally, the Federal Reserve will announce its next interest-rate decision on November 7. The Fed has several recent data releases, in addition to the upcoming jobs report on Friday, to help it determine whether or how much it will cut rates. Before the GDP report, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">traders</a> expected the central bank would cut rates by 25 basis points in November. That was still the case after the report, with a probability of around 96%.The US economy has generally been strong since recovering from the 2020 Covid recession, and the new GDP reading adds to this. David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said in a note that "in an economy that has averaged 2.1% growth since the start of this century," adding that anything between 2.5% and 4% "shows a continuation of above-trend real growth."Wednesday's reading is the advance estimate based on early data collected by the Commerce Department, so it could change as more information rolls in. Hurricane Helene in September and Hurricane Milton in October affecting businesses could impact GDP in the third or fourth quarter; it may mean larger revisions upward or downward.Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate, told Business Insider earlier this month that because economic data will likely be "foggy" because of issues like strikes and recent hurricanes, "we may have to employ a little bit of patience to get through the end of the year and hope for better visibility about economic data."This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

US economic growth came in slightly under expectations but consumer spending remains strong

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword> in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword> is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts. Earlier this month, the government reconstituted the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel -- <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC). The reconstituted panel, with three newly appointed external members, will commence its maiden meeting on Monday. MPC Chairman RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will reveal the outcome of the three-day discussion on Wednesday (October 9). The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has kept the repo or short-term lending rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February 2023, and experts think some easing could only be possible in December. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. In the current context, experts feel that the RBI may not follow the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the benchmark rates by 50 basis points, and the central banks of some developed nations, which have reduced the interest rates. "We do not expect any change in the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> or stance by MPC. The reason is that inflation for September and October will be above 5 per cent, and the present low inflation is due to the base effect. Besides, core inflation is inching upwards," said Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda. Further, the recent Iran-Israel imbroglio can intensify, and there is uncertainty here, he said. "Hence, the status quo is the most likely option even for new members. Inflation forecast may be lowered by 10-20 bps and no change in GDP forecast likely," said Sabnavis. The central bank last hiked the repo rate to 6.5 per cent in February 2023 and since then, it has held the rate at the same level. Icra Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said that given the undershooting in the initial first quarter GDP growth relative to the MPC's forecast and the likely sizeable undershooting in the second quarter CPI inflation print as well, "we believe a stance change to neutral may be appropriate in the October 2024 policy review". This could be followed by a shallow rate-cutting cycle of 25 bps each in December 2024 and February 2025, she added. "The abundant monsoon offers some insurance for crop inflation. The impact of global political developments and geopolitical uncertainty on the growth inflation dynamics remains a risk," Nayar added. An HSBC report said three developments stand out -- softer growth numbers have trickled in recently, inflation has been falling, and the external environment has moved from rate hikes to cuts. "We believe the RBI doesn't gain from waiting any longer. We think it will change its stance from a hawkish 'withdrawal of accommodation' to 'neutral' in the upcoming 9 October policy meeting, followed by repo rate cuts of 25 bps each in the December and February meetings, taking the repo rate to 6 per cent," the report said. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its August bi-monthly review amid risks from higher food inflation. This was the ninth consecutive MPC meeting, which decided to maintain the status quo on the rate front. Pradeep Aggarwal, founder and chairman, Signature Global (India) Limited, said while the real estate industry, developer community, and homebuyers are hoping for an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy review, the RBI is likely to hold on to the interest rate cuts for the tenth consecutive time. "The apex bank still seems uncomfortable with the overall retail inflation scenario, particularly food inflation. As such, it is expected to maintain the status quo. The recent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has ignited similar hopes even in India, but the domestic scenario is very different," he added. SBM Bank India Head Treasury Mandar Pitale believed that the MPC has persistently advocated a restrictive policy until inflation aligns durably towards the 4 per cent target. "With the unfavourable base effect taking the next couple of CPI prints near 5 per cent plus or minus, it will pose a major challenge for MPC to start easing from the October meeting," Pitale said, adding that the MPC is also expected to deliberate upon the global factors like growth-inflation behaviour in developed economies. The government has appointed Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Nagesh Kumar as external members of the MPC. They have replaced Ashima Goyal, Shashanka Bhide, and Jayanth R Varma. Apart from the Governor, the other internal members are the RBI Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Debabrata Patra and the Executive Director monetary policy department of RBI Rajiv Ranjan. In an off-cycle meeting in May 2022, the MPC raised the policy rate by 40 basis points and it was followed by rate hikes of varying sizes, in the subsequent meetings till February 2023. The repo rate was raised by 250 basis points cumulatively between May 2022 and February 2023.

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