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India's retail inflation is projected to surge to 6.15% in October, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance threshold of 6%, according to a new report by Union Bank of India. The spike is attributed to persistent <keyword id="21013592" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-price-pressures" source="keywords">food price pressures</keyword> and the waning of favorable base effects from the previous year. Earlier this month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also echoed similar sentiments and noted that the inflation print for October 2024 could stay well above 5.5%. This is why, as Das highlighted, cutting interest rates as early as December would be very early and premature The <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) data for October, which will be released at 4 pm on Tuesday, as opposed to the previous practice of releasing this data at 5:30 pm on the 12th of every month, follows September's inflation reading of 5.49%, up from 3.65% in August 2024. The last time inflation breached the RBI's upper limit was in August 2023. Despite the RBI's anticipation of an October inflation "hump," the Union Bank report suggests that the magnitude of the increase might raise concerns, particularly as November's figures are also tracking at elevated levels. The bank maintains its forecast of unchanged interest rates in December's monetary policy meeting, with a modest 50 basis points rate cut cycle predicted to begin in February 2025. Food inflation remains a key driver of price pressures, with vegetables and edible oils leading the recent surge. In September 2024, India's YoY food inflation rate hit 9.24%, up from 5.66% in the month prior. However, the report projects some easing of food inflation in the January-March quarter, citing typical winter price moderation and improving prospects for rabi crops. Despite this, potential risks from food supply disruptions, imported edible oil prices, and the impact of potential trade tariff hikes will exist. The RBI, which aims to maintain retail inflation at 4%, has held the repo rate steady at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive time in its last meeting as part of its inflation containment strategy. A recent SBI report also noted that expecting rate cuts in this quarter would be immature, and easing was possible only during the first half of 2025. "Given the current estimates of FY25 real GDP growth at 7.2% and CPI at 4.50%, the RBI would quite possibly keep policy rates stable over the coming quarter at least. Emerging trends in the growth outlook would possibly determine the timing and extent of any policy easing. With near-term CPI numbers likely to stay elevated, it’s premature to consider expectations of any easing in the December review. "However, high-frequency data do validate a softness in growth data on an incremental basis. Given the anticipated aligning of CPI closer to the target over H2, a shallow easing, if any can be a reasonable possibility over H1 of CY 25", it added.

Retail inflation expected to breach 6% mark in October, says UBI Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="20335345" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="McDonalds" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="McDonald's" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="McDonald's">McDonald's</keyword> global sales fell for the second consecutive quarter, down 1.5%.</li><li>Fast-food chains have faced challenges from <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>, affecting <keyword id="20139791" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-spending" source="keywords">consumer spending</keyword> habits.</li></ul>Global sales at McDonald's have fallen for a second consecutive quarter as the fast-food chain struggled in international markets, especially France, the UK, China, and the Middle East. Sales were down 1.5% in its third quarter, following from a 1% slide in the previous quarter, ending June 30. Comparable sales in the US were virtually flat, up 0.3% from the same period in 2023, while sales in international markets dropped 2.1%. Sales in licensed international markets fell 3.5%. "We will stay laser-focused on providing an unparalleled experience with simple, everyday value and affordability that our consumers can count on as they continue to be mindful about their spending," McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski said in the earnings release. While sales dropped, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trying-most-expensive-mcdonalds-switzerland-disappointing-fries-best-burger-2023-12">the Golden Arches</a>' revenue increased 3% to $6.9 billion, beating the $6.82 billion figure that was the consensus of analysts. Net income declined 3%, down to $2.26 billion, down from $2.32 billion in the last quarter. Shares in McDonald's fell 2.7% in premarket trade after the results were announced. Fast-food restaurants have struggled with food inflation since the COVID-19 pandemic. The most recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">US consumer price index</a>, released in early October, showed that the cost of food away from home rose 4% in the prior 12 months, significantly higher than gains in both grocery store prices and the overall CPI. Chains, including McDonald's, have responded to the soaring cost of ingredients and labor by raising menu prices. Consumers have felt the strain of rising costs. Analysts have said that some consumers are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-fast-food-is-so-much-more-expensive-value-affordable-2024-4">comparing the rising cost of fast food to the slowing rate of grocery inflation</a> and choosing to cook more often at home instead of eating out. Lower-income customers have particularly felt the pinch. "The decline in comparable sales signals that consumers continue to retrench from eating out," Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData's US retail and consumer division, told Business Insider. "Negative comparable sales and higher costs have also put some pressure on the bottom line where both operating and net income are down," he said. It's uncertain how the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-e-coli-outbreak-cases-rise-75-people-2024-10" target="_blank">recent E. </a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-e-coli-outbreak-cases-rise-75-people-2024-10" target="_blank">coli outbreak</a> in several states might affect McDonald's fourth-quarter results. One person died, and at least 75 were sickened. The Food and Drug Administration has said that the slivered onions on affected <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-quarter-pounder-ecoli-outbreak-why-important-sales-2024-10" target="_blank">Quarter Pounder burgers</a> were "a likely source of contamination," and the supplier of the topping <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-supplier-taylor-farms-recalls-onions-amid-e-coli-outbreak-2024-10" target="_blank">has issued a recall</a>. Correction: October 29, 2024 — An earlier version of this story overstated what has been confirmed about the recent <keyword id="22099782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="E-coli-outbreak" source="keywords">E. coli outbreak</keyword> linked to McDonald's. The FDA is still investigating the outbreak and has not conclusively settled on a cause, though it has said slivered onions from one of the chain's suppliers were "a likely source of contamination."

McDonald's sales dropped for the 2nd quarter in a row as customers keep tightening their belts

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Wednesday, congratulated Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Governor, Shaktikanta Das for bagging an A+ grade rating in the Global Finance Central Banker Report Cards 2024. Prime Minister in a post on social media "X" said, "Congratulations to RBI Governor Shri @DasShaktikanta for this feat, and that too for the second time. This is a recognition of his leadership at the RBI and his work towards ensuring <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and stability." <keyword id="20850250" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-Governor-Das" source="keywords">RBI Governor Das</keyword> has been awarded the A+ grade rating for the second consecutive year. The Central Banker Report Cards, published annually by Global Finance since 1994, grade the central bank governors of nearly 100 key countries, territories, and districts, as well as the European Union, the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, the Bank of Central African States and the Central Bank of West African States. Grades are based on an "A+" to "F" scale for success in areas such as <keyword id="21364628" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation-control" source="keywords">inflation control</keyword>, economic growth goals, currency stability and <keyword id="22859834" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate-management" source="keywords">interest rate management</keyword>. "A" represents an excellent performance, down through "F" for outright failure. "Central bankers have waged war against <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> over the past few years, wielding their primary weapon: higher interest rates. Now, countries around the world are witnessing the tangible results of these efforts, as inflation has dropped significantly," said Global Finance founder and editorial director Joseph Giarraputo. The RBI has been successful in controlling the larger macroeconomic situations in the country. The apex bank is actively working to push economic growth through its <keyword id="20900764" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policies" source="keywords">monetary policies</keyword>. The RBI recently kept the the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5 per cent after the deliberations of the Monetary Policy Commitee meeting earlier this month. The move reflects the central bank's cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Announcing the monetary policy decisions, Das had said that the decision to keep the repo rate steady comes amidst persistent concerns about inflation, which remains above the RBI's target range. RBI Governor Das said that the inflation will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and global food prices have shown signs of easing in July. The Q1 <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of the next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent, as announced by the RBI Governor. India's retail inflation, after breaching 5 per cent in June, softened drastically in July. In line with the moderation in retail inflation, wholesale inflation in India too witnessed a sharp decline in July. The annual rate of inflation based on all India Wholesale Price Index (WPI) numbers is 2.04 per cent (provisional) for July 2024 (over July 2023).

PM Modi congratulates RBI Governor Das on A+ rating in Global Finance Report

<div type="image" title="SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal" agency="ANI" msid="112275933" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal &amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>The Consumer Price <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">Inflation</keyword> in India is expected to remain around 5 per cent in the financial year 2024-25 except for September and October month, according to a research report by <keyword id="13222" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sbi" source="Orion">SBI</keyword>. The report also noted that the inflation outlook in India remains a critical focus for the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI). Recent data indicates that the <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) inflation rose to 5.08 per cent in June 2024, driven primarily by higher food and beverage prices. "CPI inflation is expected to remain below or close to 5.0 per cent in the remaining months, except for Sep'24 and Oct'24" said the report. The report also added that the monsoon season plays an important role in shaping food prices, and while the current monsoon has shown a satisfactory surplus, excess rainfall could lead to crop losses, adversely affecting food inflation. The RBI's ability to manage inflation expectations is crucial, especially as it navigates the delicate balance between supporting <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and maintaining <keyword id="19960158" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="price-stability" source="keywords">price stability</keyword>. "With monsoon progressing satisfactorily with 2 per cent surplus till date and progress of area coverage under Kharif crops showing 2.9 per cent yoy, we expect inflation to remain within RBI target in FY25. However, with La Nina getting precedence, excess rainfalls could result in crop loss and thus a negative impact on food prices" the report added. In response to the evolving economic landscape, the report mentioned that the RBI is likely to continue its stance of withdrawing accommodation. This approach aims to address inflationary pressures while ensuring that the economy remains on a growth trajectory. However, the central bank faces challenges in policy transmission, as deposit rates have shown downward rigidity despite a declining weighted average lending rate (WALR). This situation complicates the RBI's efforts to implement effective monetary policy. "Even though the Banks are chasing deposits to fund the incremental credit growth, RBI recent report suggests, the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loan decreased by 11 bps from the beginning of the year (i.e. from 9.43 in January'24 to 9.32 in June'24)" the report noted. Looking ahead, the RBI's decisions will be influenced by both domestic and global economic conditions. The potential for a recession in the US and geopolitical tensions could impact inflation dynamics in India. As such, the RBI's monetary policy will need to remain flexible and responsive to these external factors while striving to achieve its inflation targets and support sustainable economic growth. (ANI)

SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal

The Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) has started its three-day monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting in Mumbai on Tuesday. The meeting will conclude on Thursday, when the RBI will announce its decisions on the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> and other matters. The repo rate, which has been maintained at 6.5 per cent since it was last increased in February 2023, is widely expected by experts to remain unchanged for the ninth consecutive bi-monthly policy review. Experts highlight that <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> in India remains above the RBI's target range, making it unlikely that the central bank will implement policy cuts until inflation reaches the target of 4 per cent. However, the expert added that the RBI may consider rate cuts in the October meeting. Banking expert Ashutosh Khajuria commented: "Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may continue to hold the policy signalling Repo rate and wait for <keyword id="19979707" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Inflation" source="keywords">Consumer Price Inflation</keyword> to decisively fall below 4 per cent, the target rate. For the present, the continuation of the current stance is widely expected. MPC in India may change the stance and rate action by the beginning of the second half of the year in their October meeting at the earliest." The experts also noted that while <keyword id="20196112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="core-inflation" source="keywords">core inflation</keyword> has been contained and commodity prices, particularly metals, have dropped by 15-20 per cent from their 2024 peak, food inflation remains a concern and needs to be closely monitored to ensure stability in overall CPI numbers. The Managing Director of a major bank, who preferred not to be named, told ANI: "During the last policy meeting we could see some voting in favour of a <keyword id="19920203" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cut" source="keywords">rate cut</keyword>. At the same time, we could see The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on July 11 said it is too early to talk on the interest rate cut due to the uncertain economic environment and inflation remaining close to five per cent. Considering both, our expectation is that the rate cut cycle may start from the next meeting and no change in <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> this time." RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had also emphasised in the last policy briefing that food inflation is still a concern and that the regulator is not in a hurry to make a decision on rate cuts. A recent report by the State Bank of India (SBI) also noted that Consumer Price Inflation in India is expected to remain around 5 per cent for the financial year 2024-25, except for the months of September and October.

Repo rate cut unlikely in ongoing MPC meeting, but RBI may change it during October policy review: Experts

New Delhi: While the <keyword id="20199673" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="moderation" source="keywords">moderation</keyword> in <keyword id="20468215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPI" source="keywords">CPI</keyword> <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> is a welcome development, experts caution that the road ahead could be bumpy. The sequential momentum in <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> remains strong, with a 2.5 per cent month-on-month increase in prices, higher than the average sequential growth, indicating that inflationary pressures may persist. The uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall and the potential for excess rainfall in the coming months pose additional risks to food prices. RajSinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge, noted, "Despite the moderation in the inflation of the food and beverage basket when compared to last year, the sequential momentum remains strong, with a 2.5 per cent M-o-M increase in prices, higher than an average sequential grow." Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist at CRISIL, highlighted the impact of the high-base effect, stating, While the high-base effect -- along with sequential monthly movements -- was supportive of food inflation, it had an adverse bearing on core inflation. The big worry now is food prices continue to be elevated with the on-month rise slightly higher than usual for July. "The good part is monsoon and sowing have been progressing well and the expectation is that the arrival of fresh supplies in the market should over the next few months curb the food price rise. Overall, though, we expect inflation to ease and average 4.5 per cent this fiscal mostly due to softer food prices. This should allow the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> to begin cutting earliest by October", Joshi added. Raghvendra Nath, Managing Director of Ladderup Wealth Management, expressed optimism regarding the CPI data, stating, "This decline is primarily attributed to a reduction in the Consumer Food Price Index, which fell from 9.36 per cent in June to 5.42 per cent in July. This improvement should offer reassurance to the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI), which has indicated that <keyword id="19920341" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cuts" source="keywords">rate cuts</keyword> will occur only when inflation sustainably aligns with its 4 per cent target. He added, "Positive expectations for the monsoon and adequate buffer stocks support the continued downward trend of CPI. However, any substantial rise in crude oil prices due to the ongoing geopolitical crisis could adversely affect inflation and the broader economy." Sanjeev Agrawal, President of the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, also commended the decline in CPI inflation, stating, "It is highly appreciable that the CPI inflation has exhibited a decline in the year-on-year inflation rate at 3.5 per cent for the month of July 2024 from 5.08 per cent in June 2024." He added, "The food and beverages inflation eased sharply from 8.4 per cent in June 2024 to 5.06 per cent in July 2024 and fuel and light inflation from -3.7 per cent in June 2024 to -5.4 per cent in July 2024, are the main drivers of the softening inflation trajectory." India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased significantly to 3.54 per cent in July 2024, marking its lowest level in nearly five years and a sharp drop from 5.08 per cent in June. This decline, which brought inflation below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4 per cent for the first time since 2019, has been largely attributed to a favourable base effect and a dramatic reduction in <keyword id="20621131" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vegetable-prices" source="keywords">vegetable prices</keyword>. The primary driver behind this sharp moderation was the steep fall in vegetable inflation, which plummeted from 29.3 per cent in June to 6.8 per cent in July. The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) also saw a significant reduction, falling from 9.36 per cent in June to 5.42 per cent in July, contributing to the overall easing of CPI inflation. (ANI)

Experts welcome moderation of inflation in July, by warns of continued inflationary pressure ahead

New Delhi [India], March 12 (ANI): The latest data released by the <keyword id="20070866" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="national-statistical-office" source="keywords">National Statistical Office</keyword> (<keyword id="20067517" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nso" source="keywords">NSO</keyword>), under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), indicates a slight easing in retail inflation for the month of February 2024. According to the provisional figures provided by the NSO, the retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (General), stood at 5.09 per cent in February 2024. This marks a marginal decrease from 5.10 per cent recorded in January 2024. The combined inflation rate for rural and urban areas came down to 5.09 per cent from the previous month's 5.10 per cent. The data further reveals that the <keyword id="20931744" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-food-price" source="keywords">Consumer Food Price</keyword> Index (<keyword id="20931745" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cfpi" source="keywords">CFPI</keyword>) witnessed a similar trend, with a slight decrease from 8.30 per cent in January 2024 to 8.21 per cent in February 2024. Both rural and urban areas experienced a dip in food inflation, indicating a marginal relief for consumers across the board. The monthly changes in the General Indices and CFPIs show a negligible increase of 0.16 per cent in the combined CPI (General) and 0.11 per cent in the CFPI from January 2024 to February 2024. This indicates a relatively stable price movement in essential goods and services during the said period. The NSO collects price data from a vast sample size, covering both rural and urban markets across all states and union territories. During February 2024, data was collected from 100 per cent of villages and 98.5 per cent of urban markets. The comprehensive coverage ensures that the inflation figures are representative of the diverse consumption patterns across the country. In terms of the subgroup analysis, notable trends were observed in various categories. Cereals and products, meat and fish, and egg prices showed moderate increases, contributing to the overall inflation rate. On the other hand, certain items like oils and fats experienced a decline in prices, exerting downward pressure on inflation. The NSO has also provided state-wise inflation data, highlighting the varying price dynamics across different regions. States like <keyword id="19896313" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="andhra-pradesh" source="keywords">Andhra Pradesh</keyword>, Telangana, and <keyword id="19896558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tamil-nadu" source="keywords">Tamil Nadu</keyword> recorded relatively higher inflation rates, while states like Delhi and Maharashtra witnessed a more subdued inflationary environment. Looking ahead, the NSO has announced that the next release of CPI data for March 2024 is scheduled for April 12, 2024. This continued transparency in reporting inflation figures enables policymakers and stakeholders to make informed decisions regarding monetary and fiscal policies. (ANI)

Retail inflation eases to 5.09% in February 2024

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Since 2020, wages have outpaced inflation for the majority of American workers.</li><li>Average wages for most US workers are up roughly 25.7% since 2020, while inflation is up about 20.9%.</li></ul>American consumers have been frustrated by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/high-prices-inflation-sticking-interest-rate-hikes-stock-market-2024-5">high prices</a> over past years, but there's some good news: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wage-growth-faster-than-inflation-first-time-2-years-2023-6">wages</a> have outpaced inflation since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.Since 2020, average hourly wages for most US workers have risen faster than the consumer price index, meaning income has maintained its purchasing power against rising prices.Furthermore, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wage-growth-faster-than-inflation-first-time-2-years-2023-6">real wages</a> — earnings adjusted for inflation — have been positive over the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.epi.org/blog/average-wages-have-surpassed-inflation-for-12-straight-months/">past year</a>, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, meaning workers are gaining purchasing power.But while wage gains show promising signs for US workers, it can take longer for consumers' perspectives to shift; many Americans are still reckoning with past years' <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cost-of-living-what-is-middle-class-housing-market-2024-4">sticker shock</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-crisis-unaffordable-high-rent-prices-cost-burdened-renters-cities-2024-7">high housing costs</a>.<h2 id="aa403d6e-35c8-4365-aee2-c63b2d01f926">Economic data vs consumer sentiment</h2>Nearly four in five US voters said price increases were the top source of their financial stress in the last three months, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/7aa63450-5ff2-4ea3-b639-1a21db372527?emailId=97961c1a-deb9-48c2-a1b8-95b4d7d4c1d0&amp;segmentId=1ce3de53-bbd6-f782-fb6e-1124c8f8297f">FT-Michigan Ross Poll</a>.While wage gains have outpaced inflation, it can be difficult for consumers to feel the growth, and plenty of people still miss the "good old days" of lower prices.According to Bankrate Analyst Sarah Foster, that's because economists and consumers see prices differently.Economists pay attention to inflation indicators which measure the rate of change of prices. Meanwhile, many consumers focus on the price levels for individual goods (like grocery store receipts) and how they compare to previous years, Foster said.While inflation is now slowing, many Americans still feel burdened by what they see as a jump in the price tags of various items over the past four years."They remember how much it used to cost to fill up their gas tank; they remember how much it used to cost to buy a cart full of groceries," Foster said.Since 2020, prices have risen 20.9%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, across that same period, average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers — most US workers — have risen roughly 25.7%.Furthermore, the 25.7% increase in hourly wages for production and nonsupervisory workers is slightly ahead of the 23.1% increase in wages for all private workers, meaning employees have gained a bit more than their bosses.That wage growth is due in part to a tight labor market and state-level minimum wage increases from 2019 to 2023, according to the nonprofit think tank <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2023/">Economic Policy Institute</a>.Nonetheless, wage growth has differed across industries, and while average growth is strong, high prices can be crippling for those whose incomes have paced behind inflation, Foster said.Furthermore, Foster said that industries with strong wage growth, like food services, leisure, and hospitality, are often low-paying jobs to begin with, meaning people are already sensitive to higher prices.<h2 id="2a0eff72-8496-4bfb-8b12-31cbd2fd5faa">Wages are still beating inflation</h2>Consumer prices rose 3.0% year-over-year in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-june-prices-food-energy-fed-interest-rate-cuts-2024-7#:~:text=The%20consumer%20price%20index%20increased,%25%20month%2Dover%2Dmonth.">June</a>, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the lowest rate in a year and far below the pandemic-era peak of 9.1% year-over-year in June 2022.Meanwhile, average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers increased 4.0% year-over-year in June, continuing a yearlong trend of hourly wage growth beating out inflation.Since spring 2023, year-over-year wage growth for production and nonsupervisory workers has consistently been above inflation.In another positive sign for people's wallets, prices also decreased 0.1% from May to June, marking the first month-over-month drop since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.There were <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-costs-keep-rising-inflation-goes-down-eggs-tickets-insurance-2024-7">some price outliers</a>, such as uncooked beef, which was up 10.5% year-over-year in June. Nonetheless, inflation has come down a lot since 2022.Still, prices themselves have not. Overall, price levels are up roughly 7% since inflation's peak in 2022. Yet, wages are up about 10% in the same period, highlighting that income has maintained its power.And higher price levels can be good for the economy. The Federal Reserve targets a 2% inflation rate, so even in a healthy economy, price levels are rising — what matters is managing the rate at which they increase and how that compares to rising incomes.In fact, broad and prolonged deflation — falling prices — is a recipe for high unemployment, economist Paul Krugman wrote in a July 16 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/16/opinion/inflation-prices-economy.html">New York Times column</a>.While US consumers adjust to higher prices, strong wage growth should help ease affordability concerns, Krugman wrote.Have you had a pay increase but still feel burdened by high prices? Please reach out at <a target="_blank" class="" href="mailto:jtowfighi@businessinsider.com">jtowfighi@businessinsider.com</a>.

Wages have outpaced inflation since 2020 but many consumers still feel burdened by prices 

New Delhi: The ongoing volatility in the prices of key food items such as tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (collectively known as TOP) and pulses continues to pose significant challenges for the <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy-committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) of the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>), highlights a report by <keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>. "Current volatility in prices of TOP and pulses continues to challenge the MPC, keeping the headline above target at 5.1 per cent in June 2024," said the report. The report highlighted that this instability in <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> has kept the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> above the targeted level, reaching 5.1 per cent in June 2024. While the inflationary pressures remain a concern, the report stated that there is hope on the horizon due to the currently above-normal <keyword id="19968257" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon" source="keywords">monsoon</keyword> and increased sowing activity, which are further supported by the potential onset of a La Nina event later in the year. "The currently above-normal monsoon and sowing, backed up by a potential La Nina event later, promise reprieve in later quarters," said the report. Importantly, the report added that it is now expected that the CPI will remain above the RBI's medium-term target of 4 per cent in all quarters up until the first quarter of FY26. This persistent overshoot highlights the ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy. "Notably, now the CPI is expected to be above RBI's target of 4 per cent in all quarters till Q1FY26," the report added. However, the report noted that the Monetary Policy Committee expects a moderation in inflation during the fourth quarter, which is anticipated to help keep the overall CPI projection for FY24 unchanged at 4.5 per cent. The SBI report also believes that the volatility in food prices, driven by uneven spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rains, presents an upside risk to the current inflation projections. As a result, SBI maintains its CPI estimate for FY25 at 4.7 per cent year-on-year. In the latest MPC meeting on Wednesday, RBI Governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said inflation will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and global food prices have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent."

High food prices raise concerns but improved monsoon offers hope for RBI: SBI report

In April, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) governor Shaktikanta Das referred to <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> as the ‘elephant in the room’. He said, “The elephant has now gone out for a walk and appears to be returning to the forest. We would like the elephant to return to the forest and remain there on a durable basis… Elephant moves slowly, and last mile inflation tends to be sticky.” On Friday, the Indian government data showed that the year-on-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (<keyword id="20468215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPI" source="keywords">CPI</keyword>) for June 2024 stood at 5.08 per cent — rising from 4.75% last month. This was the first time the headline inflation had risen since December 2023! Looks like the elephant decided to stop and look back on its way to the forest. The question remains, what’s next — will it return to the forest or return to the room to haunt us again? <h2>Food price inflation at a record high</h2> The major driver for the higher inflation figures this month has been the rising <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> across India. In fact, food price inflation almost doubled year-on-year in June, rising to 8.36 per cent last month compared to 4.63 per cent in June 2023. Inflation in the food basket was 9.36 per cent in June, up from 8.69 per cent in May, according to the data of the National Statistical Office (NSO). Government data showed that <keyword id="513422" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="Orion">retail inflation</keyword> for all food segments, including cereal, meat, eggs, milk, oils, fruits, vegetables, pulses, sugar, spices, prepared snacks, and sweets, increased month-on-month. This was the main cause for retail inflation hardening in June, diverging from the previous months' moderation. While the inflation rate based on the all-India CPI for June 2024 stood at 5.08%, rural and urban inflation rates also spiked to 5.66 per cent and 4.39 per cent, respectively. “Barring the food basket, inflation is indicating signs of bottoming out broadly across the non-food categories, also seen in the inflation in the core categories averaging at 3.5% in the last six months. A stable monsoon will play an important role in stabilising food prices and inflation levels over the next few months,” said Vivek Rathi, National Director Research, Knight Frank India. In May, annual retail inflation was at a 12-month low of 4.75%, slightly down from April's 4.83%. In December last year, retail inflation stood at 5.7 % and had been moderating until June. On the other hand, the US CPI rose only 3% on an annual basis in June versus expectations of 3.2%. Month-over-month, the US CPI declined 0.1%, on expectations for a 0.1% rise. <h2>There goes the chance of an early rate cut?</h2> While European central banks started to cut interest rates last month, hopes of such policy moves seem to have been derailed by these inflation figures. Indian central bank, RBI, has remained cautiously focused on inflation as the growth prospects remained robust. It has been waiting for the final phase of disinflation to materialise before considering rate cuts. The situation, however, does seem rather peculiar — as long as inflation does not align with the central bank's 4% target, the interest rates may remain rather high. However, the current economic environment is not gloomy at all, characterized by a robust GDP growth rate, estimated at 8.2% for 2023-24. Hence, the RBI adopts a wait-and-see approach. And the wait is likely to continue a little while longer. This year, food prices have become a significant issue for policymakers in India, and the RBI governor pinned his hopes on a good monsoon season to alleviate the food price inflation concerns. So far, the monsoon has stood up to our expectations, yet the food prices have remained stubbornly high, mainly due to extended heat wave conditions in June. "The CPI inflation came marginally higher than our expectations. While the <keyword id="67286" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="Orion">food inflation</keyword> risks will continue to dominate in the near term, we expect better sowing patterns and spatial distribution of rains to eventually ease the price pressures beyond these volatile months. Having said that, the central bank will be in no hurry to ease <keyword id="20104157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy" source="keywords">monetary policy</keyword> given the headroom from robust growth in the backdrop of near-term inflation risks," said Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. India's retail inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) comfort range of 2-6% but exceeds the ideal 4% scenario. While inflation is a global concern, India has so far managed its inflation trajectory relatively well. Since May 2022, the RBI has raised the repo rate by 250 basis points cumulatively to combat inflation. However, over the last eight policy cycles, the central bank has kept the rates consistent at 6.5%. The next monetary policy meeting of the RBI is scheduled for early August. And with the higher-than-expected inflation data, the central bank is likely to keep the rate unchanged next month as well for the ninth consecutive month. However, hopes are still alive for a rate cut towards the end of the year. "We are not ruling out a stance change in October 2024 and a 25 bps rate cut each in December 2024 and February 2025, followed by an extended pause, if the food inflation outlook turns decidedly favourable on the back of a normal magnitude and favourable distribution of rainfall in the rest of the monsoon season, and there are no other shocks, either global or domestic," said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA. (With inputs from ANI and PTI) <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="110784179" title="Monetary Policy Committee keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, confirms RBI governor Shaktikanta Das" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"><payload><![CDATA[seealso]]></payload></div> <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="110788776" title="RBI retains inflation projection for FY25 at 4.5%" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"><payload><![CDATA[seealso]]></payload></div>

Inflation spikes in June 2024 due to high food prices; Likely to affect RBI’s decision on interest rate

<ul class="summary-list"><li>It's been another tough quarter for the fast-food sector.</li><li>Both KFC and Burger King saw sales fall in the US in Q3.</li></ul>It's been another tough few months for fast-food giants.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-sales-dropped-second-quarter-in-a-row-sharees-down-2024-10">McDonald's kicked off earnings last week by reporting a drop in global sales</a> for the most recent quarter. On Tuesday, Burger King owner Restaurant Brands International and the parent company of KFC followed in its footsteps.Same-store sales worldwide for Yum! Brands, which owns KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut, dropped by 2% year over year.Its biggest brand — KFC — saw same-store sales in the US drop by 5%.Meanwhile, Restaurant Brands International, which owns chains including Burger King, Tim Hortons, and Popeyes, reported a weaker-than-expected 0.3% increase in same-store sales across the group for Q3.Comparable sales dropped by 0.4% for Burger King and 3.8% at Popeyes in the US. Globally, comparable sales fell 0.7% and 4%, respectively.Tim Hortons and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taco-bell-cheap-fast-food-gives-diners-what-they-want-2024-8">Taco Bell were bright spots</a> for both parent companies in the US, however, reporting an uptick in sales. The latter has won over diners with cheaper fast food and value menus.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-starbucks-kfc-us-sales-diners-cut-back-prices-expensive-2024-8">Fast-food chains have struggled recently</a> as price hikes have increasingly put off some consumers.Chains raised their menu prices to account for rising food and labor costs in the years after the pandemic.McDonald's, KFC, and Burger King are among those trying to lure back diners with new <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-chipotle-starbucks-fast-food-chains-value-meal-war-customers-2024-11#:~:text=Fast%20food%20chains%20say%20they,temporary%20discounts%20to%20earn%20sales.">value menu deals</a>. But it looks like it hasn't been enough.Some <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-fast-food-is-so-much-more-expensive-value-affordable-2024-4">consumers say they're increasingly turning to independent restaurants, casual dining chains</a>, or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fast-food-expensive-americans-cook-at-home-visit-independent-restaurants-2024-5">home cooking</a> to get a better deal.

You Searched For "consumer food price" and got 11 results

Retail inflation expected to breach 6% mark in October, says UBI Report

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PM Modi congratulates RBI Governor Das on A+ rating in Global Finance Report

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SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal

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Experts welcome moderation of inflation in July, by warns of continued inflationary pressure ahead

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Retail inflation eases to 5.09% in February 2024

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Wages have outpaced inflation since 2020 but many consumers still feel burdened by prices

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High food prices raise concerns but improved monsoon offers hope for RBI: SBI report

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Inflation spikes in June 2024 due to high food prices; Likely to affect RBI’s decision on interest rate

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It's not getting any easier for fast-food chains

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