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<keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">Gold prices</keyword> have corrected sharply by 7% or Rs 5,000 per 10 grams in the local markets after the government slashed the basic customs duty on gold. Lower costs will encourage more people to invest in the yellow metal, both as a commodity and as a financial asset, experts say. Analysts said customs duty cut has made gold imports cheaper. The move will help curb the rampant issue of gold smuggling, leading to growth in the organised <keyword id="22107284" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jewellery-sector" source="keywords">jewellery sector</keyword>. "The cut in basic <keyword id="20330317" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="custom-duty" source="keywords">custom duty</keyword> on gold prices makes the yellow metal cheaper. While this can lead to weaker market sentiments due to the sudden change, <keyword id="19972907" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-investors" source="keywords">retail investors</keyword> stand to benefit from the new, more attractive pricing for gold," said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst of Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities Echoing similar sentiments, Krishnan R, Director &amp; CEO of Unimoni Financial Services said lower costs will encourage more people to invest in gold, both as a commodity and as a financial asset, which is often seen as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Following the <keyword id="19936553" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="budget" source="keywords">budget</keyword> announcement by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman that the government has slashed basic customs duties on gold and silver from 15 per cent to 6 per cent, gold prices crashed by Rs 3,350 to Rs 72,300 per 10 grams in the national capital on Tuesday. The precious metal prices continued the downtrend and plunged by Rs 650 on Wednesday. The yellow metal rates saw another steep fall on Thursday, nosediving by Rs 1,000 to settle at Rs 70,650 per 10 grams, as per the All India Sarafa Association. After the duty cut, the yellow metal has declined Rs 5,000 per 10 grams or 7.1% in the past three sessions, since July 23 when it had fallen Rs 3,350 to end at Rs 72,300 per kg. Also, gold of 99.5% purity declined by Rs 1,000 to Rs 70,300 per 10 grams on Thursday. It had also lost ground by Rs 5,000 per 10 grams in the previous three sessions. On Thursday, silver rates also lost ground by Rs 3,500 per kg to Rs 84,000 per kg. In the past three sessions, the rates of the bright metal fell sharply by Rs 7,000 or 8.3% to Rs 84,000 per kg from Rs 91,000 per kg. Traders also said that a sharp correction in gold prices have revived the demand for jewellery among consumers as they flocked to jewellery outlets to take advantage of lower prices. "The reduction in basic custom duties have spurted the demand for jewellery in the domestic markets. Further, this will act as a sales booster for jewellers before the festive seasons, encouraging fresh buying by the consumers due to lower prices," PC Jeweller's Managing Director Balram Garg. Low gold prices will help domestic jewellers, particularly the organised ones, Garg said. According to MP Ahammed, Chairman, Malabar Group, the reduction has been a long-standing demand of traders in the gold sector, as it is expected to curb the rampant issue of gold smuggling, which poses a substantial threat to the Indian economy. "With the new rates, the duty on one kilogram of gold drops from Rs 9.82 lakh to Rs 3.93 lakh, making smuggling less attractive and more manageable. "This move will help dismantle the mafia chain involved in smuggling, leading to growth in the organised jewellery sector and increasing government revenue through GST and income tax," Ahammed said. Meanwhile, in futures trade on the <keyword id="20316358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="multi-commodity-exchange" source="keywords">Multi Commodity Exchange</keyword> (MCX), gold futures have partially recovered on Friday, after three days of slump. The most traded August contract jumped Rs 288 to Rs 67,750 per 10 grams on the MCX. It had settled at Rs 67,462 per 10 grams in the previous session on Thursday. However, silver contracts for September delivery continued its downward trend by declining Rs 241 to Rs 81,090 per kg. It had closed at Rs 81,331 per kg in the previous session on Thursday. Experts anticipate stability in bullion prices once there is clarity on several economic and political factors such as interest rate cut by the <keyword id="19901377" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-federal-reserve" source="keywords">US Federal Reserve</keyword>. "Stability in gold prices is expected once there is clarity on several economic and political factors including, potential interest rate cuts in the US and India, and the outcome of the US Presidential elections will provide a clear direction for gold prices," Trivedi said.

Gold prices drop by Rs 5,000/10gm post Budget; bring cheers to retail investors

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Dollar dominance faces key challenges in the future, Brookings researchers said.</li><li>The think tank pointed to four forces that could be make the greenback less attractive. </li></ul>There are a handful of challenges to the dollar's top status in financial markets, according to researchers from the Brookings Institution.In a recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-changing-role-of-the-us-dollar/">note</a>, the think tank pointed to the US dollar's shifting status in global financial markets, with the use of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-imf-stealth-erosion-global-us-dollar-forex-reserves-sanctions-2024-6">greenback declining steadily </a>over the past several decades. While the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dedollarization-dollar-dominance-currency-war-trade-usd-reserves-explained-2024-5">dollar still dominates</a> central bank reserves and world trade, the currency accounted for 59% of all global reserves at the start of 2024, down from 71% of reserve in 1999, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund.<div type="image" title="Dollar's share of global reserves graph" height="1138" width="1145" msid="112816893" hostid="261" sizebytes="59508"></div>Meanwhile, the share of nontraditional currency reserves has edged higher. Currencies like the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc, and Chinese yuan accounted for 11% of all central bank reserves at the start of this year, up from 2% recorded in 1999, per IMF data.<div type="image" title="Share of nontraditional currency reserves" height="1162" width="1151" msid="112816894" hostid="261" sizebytes="62210"></div>That decline has sparked some fear among investors that the dollar could soon be ousted from its top-dog position in financial markets. While most experts say that <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/de-dollarization-dollar-war-usd-yuan-china-russia-brics-currency-2024-7">likely isn't happening anytime soon</a>, the think tank said the dollar's dominant status faces key challenges, pointing to four factors in particular.<h2 id="eb86da1f-7f18-4189-b9a3-3748f015a7bb">1. US sanctions</h2>The US began implementing sanctions on Russia and its allies after Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That's sparked a de-dollarization drive in Russia and other BRICS nations, which have suggested they're looking to shift away from the dollar as a reaction to Western trade restrictions.Russia, in particular, has taken steps to heavily de-dollarize its economy, with the nation adopting a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-russia-china-yuan-ruble-exchange-rate-benchmark-new-sanctions-2024-6">yuan-to-ruble exchange rate</a>, proposing a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/de-dollarization-dollar-dominance-currencies-brics-china-russia-india-putin-2023-7">rival currency to the greenback</a>, and reportedly spearheading an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-russia-actively-working-brics-local-currencies-platform-us-dollar-2024-6">alternative payment platform</a> that wouldn't be reliant on the dollar.China, which saw its companies hit with <a target="_blank" href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2546">secondary sanctions</a> from the US Treasury last week, has also signaled a shift away from the dollar, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-china-yuan-cny-trade-usd-sanctions-protection-reserve-currency-2024-5">promoting its yuan as an alternative</a>."If the United States is capricious with sanctions, acts unilaterally, and fails to develop a doctrine of economic statecraft, the dollar could be dethroned," Brookings researchers said, citing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-sanctions-russia-us-dollar-dominance-yellen-alternative-yuan-dedollarization-2023-4">comments</a> from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.<h2 id="eff7251a-f1be-40d0-8494-5988c77ddab7">2. US debt</h2>The US's rising debt load could make currency holders more wary of the dollar, especially if there are concerns that the US may not be able to pay back its dues.While the US debt balance hasn't yet breached unsustainable levels, the government's rapid pace of spending has done little to ease markets. Fitch, for instance, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fitch-downgrades-us-credit-rating-deficit-debt-ceiling-2023-8#:~:text=Fitch%20downgraded%20the%20US's%20credit,the%20debt%20limit%20until%202025.">downgraded the US</a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fitch-downgrades-us-credit-rating-deficit-debt-ceiling-2023-8#:~:text=Fitch%20downgraded%20the%20US's%20credit,the%20debt%20limit%20until%202025."> credit rating</a> last year, citing a "steady deterioration in standards of governance.""Bickering over appropriations, Congress has shut the government down several times. Further political instability could erode investor confidence in the dollar," the researchers said.<h2 id="c18d8d68-8ac9-451c-b2c2-8ff5942f963f">3. Improved payment technology</h2>More advanced payment systems have made it easier to exchange nontraditional currencies. That could weigh on demand for the US dollar, which has traditionally been seen as the most attractive medium of exchange."Typically, converting such currencies to dollars, and vice versa, has been easier and cheaper than exchanging them for one another. But China and India, for example, will soon no longer need to exchange their respective currencies for dollars to conduct trade cheaply. Rather, exchanging renminbi for rupees directly will become cheaper. Consequently, the reliance on 'vehicle currencies,' particularly the dollar, will decline," Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said in a previous note.<h2 id="0b9967af-c144-471b-8ee3-4faf7baad925">4. Central bank digital currencies</h2>Digital currencies issued by central banks could also make it easier and cheaper to nontraditional currencies. China is developing one such <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-dominance-outlook-china-india-digital-currency-race-fed-innovation-2024-1">CBDC</a>, and CIPS, China's Cross-border Interbank payment system, has been "growing rapidly" over the past few years, the think-tank noted.The Fed has created its own instant payment network, but hasn't moved to create a CBDC, with Powell suggesting last year that a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/is-fednow-replacing-cash-is-it-a-central-bank-digital-currency.htm">digital currency would require approval from lawmakers</a>. That means the US risks falling behind other countries, where digital payment tech is rapidly developing, Brookings researchers said.Still, despite warnings, most currency experts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/de-dollarization-dollar-war-currency-usd-dominance-china-yuan-economy-2024-5">do not believe de-dollarization</a> is a near-term threat to the US or its currency. At the moment, there are no close competitors to the greenback in financial markets — and countries that try to de-dollarize anyway <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/de-dollarization-dollar-war-usd-yuan-china-russia-brics-currency-2024-7">risk a host of economic consequences</a>, like slower growth and lost investment value, one commodities vet told Business Insider.

The 4 forces that will challenge the dominance of the dollar, according to economic researchers

Mumbai, Gold and <keyword id="85550" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Silver-prices">silver prices</keyword> declined on Friday as <keyword id="6371444" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="traders">traders</keyword> booked profits after the recent surge in prices. Further, increasing hopes of an economic stimulus from the US government also weighed on the price of gold internationally, which reflected in the domestic market. As the US Congressional Republicans and Democrats try to pass a new round of coronavirus aid, lawmakers from both parties are of the view that failure to agree was not an option anymore. The <keyword id="10454459" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="february-contract">February contract</keyword> of gold on the MCX was trading at ₹50,235.00 per 10 gram, lower by ₹155 or 0.31% from its previous close. The March contract of Silver was trading at ₹67,622 per kg, lower by ₹645 or 0.94% from its previous close. Anuj Gupta, DVP, <keyword id="10454460" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="commodities-and-currencies-research">Commodities and Currencies Research</keyword>, <keyword id="903865" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Angel-Broking-Ltd-">Angel Broking Ltd.</keyword> said: "As for today traders can go for 'buy' in gold at ₹50,000 levels with the stop loss of ₹49,700 levels for the target of 50,700 levels." "They can also go for 'buy' in silver at Rs 67,800 levels with the stop loss of 67,000 levels and for the target of 70,000 levels," he said. Gupta said that in the international market gold may test $1,900 and silver may test the $27 level soon. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/top-stocks-to-watch-ril-tcs-hcl-tech-zee-entertainment-bpcl-bharat-dynamics-hal-bharat-forge-and-others/articleshow/79789193.cms">Top stocks to watch — RIL, TCS, HCL Tech, Zee Entertainment, BPCL, Bharat Dynamics, HAL, Bharat Forge, and others</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/enterprise/news/wistron-apple-iphone-manufacturer-could-face-these-penalties-if-found-guilty/articleshow/79790319.cms">If investigators find Wistron management guilty, here's what is at stake for the company</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/ikea-india-cfo-says-she-still-has-3500-crore-to-be-spent-in-india-the-pandemic-has-changed-targets-but-not-the-investment-plan/articleshow/79790938.cms">INTERVIEW: Ikea CFO says she still has ₹3,500 crore to be spent in India⁠— the pandemic has changed targets but not the investment plan</a>

Gold and silver prices decline as traders take some profit home

The <keyword id="14184962" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-currency-rupee" source="Orion">Indian currency rupee</keyword> breached the Rs 78 mark against the dollar for the first time ever on Monday, hitting a new lifetime low against the US dollar. The rupee closed Monday's trade at Rs 78.04 per US dollar, after depreciation as low as Rs 78.29 in intra-day deal. "There is no fresh trigger to predict if the rupee will be 79 or 80 unless and until there is a conflict between US and China with regards to Taiwan, other than that there shouldn't be any correction towards 77 or 77.50 in the spot," said <keyword id="105309" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Emkay-Global-Financial-Services" source="Orion">Emkay Global Financial Services</keyword> in a note. The rupee might see more weakness ahead of the US monetary policy review meeting starting later this week, where the <keyword id="117388" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="us-fed" source="Orion">US Fed</keyword> is expected to hike rates and showcase a more aggressive action, said <keyword id="14184963" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="jigar-trivedi" source="Orion">Jigar Trivedi</keyword>, <keyword id="162421" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="research-analyst" source="Orion">Research Analyst</keyword>, Commodities &amp; Currencies Fundamental, Anand Rathi Shares &amp; Stock Brokers. However, runaway depreciation might not happen amid the central bank's intervention, Trivedi said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/indian-equity-markets-wiped-out-127-billion-investor-wealth-in-just-two-days/articleshow/92181381.cms">Indian equity markets wiped out $127 billion investor wealth in just two days</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.in/tech/enterprise/news/simplilearn-is-looking-to-hire-800-people-including-160-freshers-this-year/articleshow/92181229.cms">Edtech startup Simplilearn bucks the trend — to hire 800 people this year</a>

Rupee breaches the ₹78 mark against the dollar for the first time ever

<ul class="summary-list"><li>European shares eased, but would still likely post their biggest monthly increase on record in November, buoyed by optimism over the economic outlook from the rollout of a COVID-19 <keyword id="24209" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="vaccine">vaccine</keyword>.</li><li>Market-based signs of investor nervousness, including falling government bond yields and a rise in volatility, pointed to a degree of caution over the coming weeks.</li><li>"Even with so many very positive signs on vaccines, it will be months before these facilitate a return to greater activity levels," ADM Investor Services chief global economist Marc Ostwald said.</li><li> </li></ul>European shares retreated on Monday, but the region's benchmark index was still set for its biggest ever monthly rise, as optimism over a vaccine has helped lift some of the most battered sectors in one of the virus hotspots.The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/stoxx_europe_600">Stoxx 600</a> fell by 0.1% in early trading, under pressure from profit-taking in some of the "real-economy" sectors, such as energy, banks and retail. The index has risen by 15% in November, the largest one-month increase since its inception in 1998. The United States has the highest number of deaths and infections worldwide, but, as a region, Europe is not far behind, with more than a quarter of a million fatalities and a number of major economies have been hammered by tough lockdowns and restrictions on movement. The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/ftse_100">FTSE 100</a> was one of the better performing indices, up around 0.3% on the day, although caution prevailed over UK assets ahead of an expected call from Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson to the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, as the two sides enter the final weeks of hashing out a post-Brexit trade deal. The pound rose against most major <keyword id="97983" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="currencies">currencies</keyword>, but traded slightly weaker against the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/eur-gbp">euro</a> around 89.92 pence."Reports suggest a Brexit deal may be closer, where the thorny issue of fishing gets resolved with a transition period. If announced this week, that might be enough to send EUR/GBP back to 88.60," ING strategists said in a note.Read More: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picks-to-buy-high-upside-investment-names-2021-goldman-2020-11">GOLDMAN SACHS: Buy these 16 stocks that are underestimated for now, but should crush expectations in 2021-22 on the way to at least 20% upside</a>Futures on the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/s&amp;p-500-futuresures">S&amp;P 500</a>, the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/dow-futures">Dow Jones</a> and the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/nasdaq-100-futures">Nasdaq 100</a> fell between 0.1% and 0.6%, suggesting the major indices could ease at the start of regular trade later on. The US market was closed on Thursday and operated under reduced hours on Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday.Asian benchmarks encountered some profit-taking overnight, leaving the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/hang_seng">Hang Seng</a> down 2.1%, the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/shanghai_composite">Shanghai Composite</a> down 0.2% and the broader Tokyo <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/topix">TOPIX</a> down 1.8%, in spite of official Chinese data showing factory activity boomed at its strongest pace in three years this month. Reflecting some of the caution in the market, government bond yields pushed lower, while two market-based measures of investor anxiety rose sharply. Yields on the benchmark 10-year US <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years">Treasury</a> note eased by 1 basis point to 0.841%. In spite of all the confidence in the prompt rollout of an effective COVID-19 vaccine, Treasuries have fallen by 3 basis points this month, marking their largest decline since July. German 10-year yields nudged down by 1 basis point to -0.583%, hovering around their lowest since November 9, when US drugmaker Pfizer announced the results of a successful vaccine trial, triggering a worldwide rush into risk assets and more down-trodden sectors of the stock market. "For all that it is not uplifting, the world is coming to terms with the fact that this year's 'holiday season' will be not be very festive, and that even with so many very positive signs on vaccines, it will be months before these facilitate a return to greater activity levels," ADM Investor Services chief global economist Marc Ostwald said."In the meantime, the battle to constrain and reduce infection rates continues, above all in Europe &amp; North America, but also increasingly in parts of Asia, and as such it is self-evident that the economic and social scars of the pandemic will be deeper than many had hoped or expected, though how deep remains unclear," he added.Investor nervousness, as reflected by options volatility, picked up. Volatility has collapsed this month, as confidence in the outlook for the global economy has grown. But on Monday, two measures of volatility jumped. The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/vdax">VDAX-New</a>, which measures the volatility of options on the DAX, rose by almost 8%, in its largest one-day increase since late October, while the more widely traded <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/vix">VIX</a> rose by 7.2%.The oil price, which has gained 25% in value this month, fell on Monday. The world's largest exporters meet this week to discuss an agreement on production curtailments and, as yet, it is not clear if they will agree to maintain their existing cuts to support the crude price going into 2021, according to <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/oil-opec/opec-to-discuss-extending-oil-cuts-or-gradually-raising-output-sources-say-idUKL8N2IG1RK">Reuters</a>. OPEC+, made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and several rival producers, have agreed to cut their crude output by a joint 7.7 million barrels per day until the end of this year. "Oil has been trading soft after OPEC+ members could not reach an agreement on output in 2021 during the first-round meeting at the weekend," Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at Axi, said. "As things stand, the production cuts the group agreed on earlier this year will end in January," he added.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude futures</a> fell 1.5% to $47.53 a barrel, while <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">WTI crude futures</a> fell 1.2% to $44.99 a barrel. Read More: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/4-esg-trends-morgan-stanley-jessica-alsford-investing-sustainability-climate-2020-11">Jessica Alsford built Morgan Stanley's ESG research unit from the ground up. Here's how she advises clients on using ESG in their portfolios – along with 4 sustainability trends to watch.</a>

European shares retreat as caution over the economic outlook resurfaces after the biggest ever monthly rally

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The functioning of Russia's stock market is an illusion, two Yale researchers told Insider.</li><li>It's part of the country's efforts to mask pain in the economy amid costly war and sanctions.</li></ul>Russia's economy is on a downward spiral – and so long as President Vladimir Putin remains in charge, any money invested in the country is bound to go nowhere, experts told Insider.That apparently stellar performance of the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/moex">Russian stock market</a> this year is ultimately an illusion meant to mask deepening pain in the country's economy. The Moscow Exchange, Russia's largest benchmark equity index, has soared 43% since the start of the year, more than doubling the gains seen in the S&amp;P 500, but those gains are deceptive, according to Yale researchers Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian.The success of Russian stocks this year is partly due to the fact that <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-stock-market-closed-ukraine-conflict-sanctions-univestable-bonds-ruble-2022-3">Russia has frozen inflows and outflows of foreign assets</a>, meaning those who invested in Russian stocks prior to the invasion of Ukraine haven't been able to cash out. It's a move that was intended to prop up Russia's stock market, the researchers said.Gains are also attributable to Russia's ruble, which recently <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ruble-putin-ukraine-war-invasion-dollar-western-sanctions-2023-8">plummeted to its lowest level against the dollar since the start of the war</a> — something that's also worked to prop up the stock market. That's because Russia mostly produces commodities that are sold using foreign currencies, Tian said. Higher-value currencies are flowing into the nation, which has helped artificially inflate profits and boost Russian stock levels."The stock market gains reflect less genuine wealth creation or foreign investment/confidence in Russian markets (which is non-existent) and more merely exchange rate effects," Tian said.Beneath those inflated numbers, Russia is actually suffering from a huge loss of confidence in its economy – and it's the main reason why investment in the nation will probably continue to wither, even after war in Ukraine ends. "The Russian stock market performance is very misleading, It is a Roach Motel of assets," Sonnenfeld told Insider. "No one will invest in Russia for a long time. Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic nations will be far better investment opportunities in the region."<h3>Money headed nowhere</h3>In Sonnenfeld's view, that future is already written into the story of the Russian economy, which has been bludgeoned by western sanctions over the past year. Since invading Ukraine, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-iran-banking-system-swift-ban-western-sanctions-ukraine-war-2023-1">Russia has been cut off from the global financial communication system</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-foreign-currency-reserves-sanctions-sue-lawsuits-western-war-2022-4">frozen out of $300 billion</a> of its of foreign reserves, and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-export-energy-revenue-ruble-war-ukraine-recession-2023-4">seen its energy revenue cut in half</a>, all of which have battered Moscow's finances. Russia's struggling economy has also led to a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russian-economy-record-worker-shortage-sanction-ukraine-war-labor-exodus-2023-4">mass exodus of workers</a>, <a href="https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/exodus-of-scientists-from-russia-has-passed-50000-since-2018-as-more-pack-their-bags-to-go/4017547.article">academics</a>, and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-takes-aim-at-oligarchs-abroad-state-nation-speech-russia-2023-2">oligarchs</a> that have fled the country, which could be a death sentence to the nation's long-term economic growth. Money is fleeing and is now flowing into neighboring countries like Armenia, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan. <div type="image" title="Russian capital flight" height="776" width="1141" msid="102877286" hostid="261" sizebytes="45284"></div>Fleeing workers and academics are also taking away technical and intellectual capital, which were key components to Russia's commodity-centric economy. <div type="image" title="Russians are fleeing the country and migrating into neighboring countries." height="763" width="1111" msid="102877287" hostid="261" sizebytes="31156"></div>"[Capital] is going into the neighboring countries, and it's showing a completely disdain for Putin's ruthless tactics and hollowing out the intellectual capital for the country," Sonnenfeld told Insider. "It's been devastating to Russia's future."But those people (and their money) likely aren't returning to Russia after the war ends either, he added, since many have lost trust in Putin as a leader. The Russian president has doubled-down on Russia's economic strength despite <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-worsens-current-account-ruble-energy-exports-2023-7">clear signs of economic weakness in the country</a>, from lower car sales to the plunging value of the ruble, which dipped this week to under $0.01 before recovering slightly on signs Moscow could take extreme measures to prop up the currency.Though Russian officials have claimed the economy will grow about 2% this year, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2023-07-11/russians-fear-the-worst-is-yet-to-come-new-polling-indicates">58% of Russians believe "hard times are yet to come,"</a> according to a recent poll from the Levada Center. "[Putin] has shown so much deceit, [trust] is irretrievable. Nobody can believe anything he says anymore," Sonnenfeld said "And as you can see in the crumbling value of the ruble, there's no confidence whatsoever.Other experts have warned of more pain for Russia's economy as its costly war in Ukraine drags on. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-could-become-failed-state-within-10-years-sanctions-survey-2023-1">Russia could even become a failed state in 10 years</a>, according to a recent survey of foreign policy experts."<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/putin-russia-economy-ukraine-war-wagner-mutiny-rebellion-west-sanctions-2023-7#:~:text=Putin%20is%20cannibalizing%20Russia's%20economy%20as%20war%20in,financial%20order%2C%20Yale%20researchers%20say&amp;text=Putin%20has%20begun%20a%20%22merciless,the%20nation's%20growing%20budget%20deficit.">Putin is cannibalizing his own economy</a>," Sonnenfeld added. "It's like throwing the living room furniture in the furnace to keep the engines burning."

The resilience of Russia's stock market and its economy is a complete mirage masking deeper pain, Yale researchers say

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11896879" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil" source="Orion">Oil</keyword> rallied to around $100 a barrel on Thursday after the IEA warned of supply risks due to a drop in Russian output from April.</li><li>While demand could shrink by 1.1 million bpd, 3 million bpd will be shut in due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, it said.</li></ul>Oil prices rose to top $100 a barrel on Thursday, coming back from a slide the previous session, after the IEA warned a coming fall in Russian supply won't make up for an expected drop in demand.The gains were also aided by a weaker <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">dollar</a>, which pulled back from two-year highs after the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-hikes-interest-rates-inflation-higher-costs-loans-mortgages-2022-3">US Federal Reserve increased interest rates</a> on Wednesday for the first time since 2018.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a> gained 5.2% to trade at $103.15 a barrel, but was still heading for a 5% loss this week. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> was up 4.8% at $99.67 a barrel, on track for a similar weekly decline.The threat of disruption to Russian oil supply has driven the price of crude oil higher in volatile trade since President Vladimir Putin's forces invaded <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword> in late February.The market is concerned about a potential supply shock from bans by the US and its allies on Russian oil imports, and the risk that Putin might decide to divert supply in retaliation for Western <keyword id="12754126" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="sanctions" source="Orion">sanctions</keyword>.About 3 million barrels a day of Russian oil output could be shut in from April, the IEA <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-sanctions-global-oil-supply-shock-iea-report-ukraine-war-2022-3">estimated in its monthly oil market report</a> published Wednesday. The drop will come as Western embargoes set in and buyers stay away from the country's exports.The IEA expects global demand to shrink as a result of the surge in oil prices — but by just 1.1 million barrels a day, far below the Russian loss of supply."This discrepancy is likely to become even bigger in the coming months given the anticipated decline in Russian oil production. The IEA therefore predicts a significantly undersupplied oil market in the second quarter," Commerzbank strategists said.Earlier in March, OPEC's secretary general, Mohammed Barkindo, said there is no capacity in the world that could <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-opec-supply-brent-crude-price-markets-commodities-russia-ukraine-2022-3">replace Russia's 7 million of barrels per day</a>.If OPEC raises its oil production as planned in the second half of 2022, the market will be virtually balanced, the Commerzbank strategists said — a "marked change" from their previous forecast for an oversupplied market."Over the past week a lot of financial positions have been flushed out, but a tight, physical market remains with widespread voluntary sanctions towards Russian oil and product exports still at work," Bjarne Schieldrop, chief <keyword id="11895969" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="commodities" source="Orion">commodities</keyword> analyst at SEB Research, said."The Brent crude <keyword id="12194890" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil-price" source="Orion">oil price</keyword> is thus likely to be driven back up again in the coming weeks as the war in Ukraine continues. Both supply and demand are hurting, but supply is currently hurting more and a tight oil market for the coming two quarters is to be expected," he added.Crude oil was also getting a boost Thursday from a fall in the dollar, which makes it cheaper for holders of other currencies to buy. The US dollar index was down 0.3% at 98.29 at last check.On the demand side, analysts pointed to the surge in cases of COVID-19 in China as a concern. The speed at which the Omicron variant is spreading means the outbreak could be very bad, with millions of infections, according to SEB's Schieldrop."Not only would this hurt oil demand directly due to Chinese lock-downs and reduced mobility. It would also hurt the global economy with reduced supply of products and spare parts flowing out of China," he said.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/klitschko-ukraine-investing-strategy-crypto-commodities-tech-wladimir-family-office-2022-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Wladimir Klitschko is fighting on the front line to defend Ukraine. The head of the boxing legend's $100 million family office breaks down his value investing philosophy - and why he focuses on disruptive tech and commodities in particular</a>

Brent crude rallies to top $100 after an IEA warning about a Russian supply shortfall

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The <keyword id="13753729" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="japanese-yen" source="Orion">Japanese yen</keyword> shows "significant value" as a hedge against a US recession, Goldman Sachs said. </li><li>Goldman Sachs said part of its bullishness towards the yen is how cheap it is compared with other typical safe-havens. </li></ul>Goldman Sachs believes the Japanese <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-jpy?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">yen</a> is an ideal hedge against the risk of a US recession, which the investment bank believes is a possiblity in the coming two years. In a research note published on Tuesday, Goldman analysts, led by Karen Reichgott Fishman, noted that the yen is trading at "extremely cheap levels" and is undervalued aga ins the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">dollar</a> to the tune of 20-25%. "In other words, the yen is now trading at historically cheap levels and screens as the cheapest safe haven asset by far—at a time when global recession risk is on the rise," Fishman wrote. Fishman said the yen looked especially cheap compared with other traditional safe haven <keyword id="11931696" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="currencies" source="Orion">currencies</keyword> such as the US <keyword id="11931694" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="dollar" source="Orion">dollar</keyword> or the Swiss franc.The yen has been <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/japan-yen-vs-dollar-currency-crash-economy-inflation-federal-reserve-2022-4">diving against the dollar</a> and reached a 20-year low last week, partly because of the widening gap between US and Japanese <keyword id="6371181" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="Orion">interest rates</keyword>, as the Bank of Japan has left monetary policy unchanged, while the Federal Reserve is in an aggressive tightening cycle to combat inflation running at 40-year highs.The BoJ meanwhile has pledged to cap the country's 10-year government bond yield at 0.25%, while 10-year Treasuries are yielding more than 3% right now, the biggest difference between the two since late 2018.Fishman said the situation has "opened up significant value" for the yen as a hedge against what the bank estimates is a 35% chance of a US recession within the next 24 months. "Our latest work on FX hedges for key risk scenarios shows that the yen screens as the most effective hedge against a 'risk down, US rates down' shock—or a market backdrop consistent with recessionary pricing."A rising dollar-yen however, is likely to call for intervention, Fishman noted, especially at a time when commodity prices, like energy, skyrocket as a result of foreign sanctions from Russia's war with Ukraine. "Over the short-term, amidst highly volatile global <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword>, the yen will likely be influenced by changes in Treasury yields and commodity prices," she said. Given Japan's reliance on energy imports in particular, which are priced in dollars, the extreme weakness in the yen means there is a greater chance the central bank will step in to support the currency and avoid an even bigger increase in inflation."The combination of cheap valuation, non-trivial risk of intervention, and, most importantly, rising odds of recession to open up paths to dollar-yen downside," she said, referring to the potential for the yen to strengthen against the dollar."cheap valuation, non-trivial risk of intervention, and, most importantly, rising odds of recession" will lead to a dollar-yen downside, meaning a greater opportunity to sell the dollar and buy the yen."Cheap valuation and rising odds of recession argue for a more constructive view on the Yen over the next year," Fishman said.

Goldman Sachs says the Japanese yen is the 'ideal hedge' against a US recession given its weakness against the dollar

<keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> and <keyword id="6358356" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="uae" source="Orion">UAE</keyword> are in talks for a Rupee-Dirham-denominated bilateral trade, said <keyword id="3786584" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="sunjay-sudhir" source="Orion">Sunjay Sudhir</keyword>, Indian Ambassador to UAE, adding that both the countries will find it beneficial. The Ambassador said the talks started on September 1, 2022. "Both countries find this beneficial. India has shared a concept paper with UAE. Central Banks of both countries are discussing. The objective is to reduce the transaction cost," the Indian Ambassador to UAE said. This development followed the Reserve Bank of India's (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) announcement -- a mechanism to settle payments for international trade in rupees, especially for India's exports. It is widely believed if the mechanism fructifies then it may go a long way in internationalizing the Indian currency rupee in the long run. A currency can be termed "international" if it is widely accepted worldwide as a medium of exchange. <keyword id="2017241" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="sbi-research" source="Orion">SBI Research</keyword>, in a report in early July, said, an interesting development is taking place in the global currency market as there has been a significant jump in trade in oil and other commodities in currencies such as the Renminbi, Hong Kong Dollar, and Arab Emirates Dirham. In the report, SBI Research said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should make a conscious effort to internationalise the Indian currency rupee amid disruptions in payments caused by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/retail-inflationary-pressures-expected-to-ease-with-fresh-kharif-arrivals-finance-ministry/articleshow/95760372.cms">Retail inflationary pressures expected to ease with fresh Kharif arrivals: Finance Ministry</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rupee-8-paise-higher-to-close-at-81-62-against-us-dollar/articleshow/95765322.cms">Rupee 8 paise higher to close at 81.62 against US dollar</a>

India, UAE in talks for rupee-dirham denominated bilateral trade

Gold prices rose by Rs 320 to Rs 53,449 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday in line with firm global trend and depreciation in the rupee, according to HDFC Securities. In the previous trade, the precious metal had closed at Rs 53,129 per 10 grams. <keyword id="35264" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="silver" source="Orion">Silver</keyword>, however, dropped Rs 125 to Rs 62,682 per kg. The rupee depreciated 66 paise to 81.57 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday, tracking the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and a muted trend in domestic equities. "Better domestic physical demand, a weaker rupee and higher international prices supported domestic gold prices," said <keyword id="329584" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="dilip-parmar" source="Orion">Dilip Parmar</keyword>, <keyword id="162421" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="research-analyst" source="Orion">Research Analyst</keyword> at HDFC Securities. In the international market, gold was trading higher at <keyword id="54123" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="usd" source="Orion">USD</keyword> 1,777.56 per ounce while silver was down at USD 21.68 per ounce. "Gold prices steadied near a three-month peak as signs of cooling US inflation boosted bets for smaller rate hikes, while reports around Russian missiles killing two people in Poland led to some demand for safe-haven assets," said <keyword id="377165" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="navneet-damani" source="Orion">Navneet Damani</keyword>, Senior VP - of Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/first-international-cruise-viking-mars-arrives-in-goa-with-650-passengers-onboard/articleshow/95553220.cms">First International cruise 'Viking Mars' arrives in Goa with 650 passengers onboard</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/upgrad-to-hire-over-1400-people-by-march-2023/articleshow/95553305.cms">upGrad to hire over 1,400 people by March 2023</a>

Gold gains Rs 320; silver drops Rs 125

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Global <keyword id="30335" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Shares">shares</keyword> and futures traded close to record highs on Wednesday.</li><li>Investors are eagerly awaiting May US payroll data after April's surprisingly weak read.</li><li><keyword id="6359072" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil">Oil</keyword> rose to two-year highs after OPEC+ confirmed it would continue its supply restriction policies.</li></ul>Global shares and futures traded close to record highs on Wednesday as investor attention shifted towards the release of US non-farm payroll data for May, which is due on Friday. Strong May PMI data across the US and Europe, which was widely adjusted upwards compared to the earlier flash release, further boosted <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword>. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/dow-futures?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestgest">Dow Jones futures</a> were last flat at 3:43 AM E.T., whilst <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/s&amp;p-500-futures?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestm=ingest">S&amp;P futures</a> were down 0.06%. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestgest">Nasdaq futures</a> were trading 0.16% lower, suggesting the tech sector may get off to a slightly weaker start later on. All eyes are on Friday's release of non-farm payroll data for May after many investors were disappointed with April's data, which fell far below expectations. Many workers are still receiving unemployment payment and other benefits that will continue for a few months, meaning companies had fewer potential employees to choose from, according to Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets."Nonetheless this week's May payrolls report is still likely to see a decent increase in hiring with around 600,000 jobs set to be added, while the unemployment rate is expected to slip back to 5.9%, after unexpectedly rising to 6.1% in April, after a surprise rise in the participation rate to 61.7%," he said. US 10 year Treasury yield held steady around 1.614%. After OPEC+ decided at their meeting on Tuesday that they would maintain their supply policy and continue to restrict oil inflows into the market whilst slowly increasing supply, Brent crude futures reached two-year highs and briefly exceeded $71 in intra-day trading. On Wednesday morning, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent</a> crude was last trading at $70.55 per barrel, up 0.43%. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">WTI</a> crude followed suit and rose by 0.35% to around at $67.96. "This is not only positive for currencies of oil exporters (NOK, CAD and MXN) but, given that the rising oil price and associated base effects have contributed heavily to the rise in headline CPI inflation so far this year, higher oil prices and the further spillover into CPIs point to even higher prospects for tighter monetary policies.", ING analysts said in a research note. European stocks rose on Wednesday. The German <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dax">DAX</a> was last up 0.14% building on Tuesday's record-high close, whilst London's <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/ftse_100">FTSE 100</a> rose by 0.43% and the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/euro_stoxx_50">Euro Stoxx 50</a> was trading 0.8% higher. Positive manufacturing and unemployment data from major European economies including Germany and France, as well as elsewhere around the eurozone lifted benchmark indices. Asian markets had a mixed day on Wednesday, with the Japanese <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nikkei_225?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestgest">Nikkei 225</a> gaining 0.46% whilst Hong Kong's <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/hang_seng">Hang Seng</a> index fell by 0.74% and China's <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/shanghai_composite">Shanghai Composite</a> closed 0.76% lower.

You Searched For "commodities and currencies research" and got 11 results

Gold prices drop by Rs 5,000/10gm post Budget; bring cheers to retail investors

PTI

The 4 forces that will challenge the dominance of the dollar, according to economic researchers

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Gold and silver prices decline as traders take some profit home

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Rupee breaches the ₹78 mark against the dollar for the first time ever

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European shares retreat as caution over the economic outlook resurfaces after the biggest ever monthly rally

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The resilience of Russia's stock market and its economy is a complete mirage masking deeper pain, Yale researchers say

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Brent crude rallies to top $100 after an IEA warning about a Russian supply shortfall

Karen Friar

Goldman Sachs says the Japanese yen is the 'ideal hedge' against a US recession given its weakness against the dollar

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India, UAE in talks for rupee-dirham denominated bilateral trade

ANI

Gold gains Rs 320; silver drops Rs 125

PTI

Global shares trade around record highs as investors await US jobs data; oil hits two-year highs

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