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New Delhi: India's fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise by 4.6 per cent in 2024, while China could see a marginal rise of 0.2 per cent, according to new research by a group of international scientists. As the UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, discussed raising trillions of dollars to tackle <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword>, the group of scientists known as the "Global Carbon Project" warned that emissions from fossil fuels -- the main driver of warming -- could hit a record 37.4 billion tonnes in 2024, up 0.8 percent from 2023 levels. This comes despite rapid growth in renewable energy and a landmark agreement at COP28 in Dubai last year to move away from fossil fuels. The "<keyword id="23948569" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-carbon-budget-2024" source="keywords">Global Carbon Budget 2024</keyword>" report said total global CO2 emissions are set to go up from 40.6 billion tons in 2023 to 41.6 billion metric tons in 2024, which is on course to become the warmest year on record. "The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked," Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter's Global Systems Institute, who led the study, said. The 'Global Carbon Project' team said India, the world's most populous country and fastest-growing major economy, may see its fossil fuel emissions rise by 4.6 percent. According to a UN report released last month, India's greenhouse gas emissions surged by 6.1 per cent in 2023, contributing to 8 per cent of the global total. However, the country's historical contribution to global CO2 emissions stands at only 3 per cent. India's per capita emissions remain low at 2.9 tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e), far below the global average of 6.6 tCO2e. India, the world's third-largest greenhouse gas emitter, has pledged to reach net zero emissions (balancing emissions with removals) by 2070 and aims to achieve 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030. China's emissions, which make up 32 per cent of the global total, are likely to increase slightly by 0.2 per cent, though there is a chance they could decline, according to the data released on Wednesday. Emissions from the United States and the European Union, which contribute 13 per cent and 7 per cent of the global total, are both set to decline, with drops of 0.6 per cent for the US and 3.8 per cent for the EU. Emissions from the rest of the world, which together account for 38 per cent of global emissions, could see a rise of 1.1 per cent. The researchers said that in 2024, coal emissions will likely increase by 0.2 per cent, oil by 0.9 per cent, and gas by 2.4 per cent, globally. Coal, oil, and gas contribute 41 per cent, 32 per cent, and 21 per cent of global fossil CO2 emissions, respectively. However, given the uncertainty in projections, it remains possible that coal emissions could decline in 2024, they said. The report also pointed out that emissions from international aviation and shipping, which account for 3 per cent of global emissions and are tracked separately from national or regional totals, are expected to rise by 7.8 per cent in 2024. However, these emissions will still be 3.5 per cent below the 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Globally, emissions from land-use changes, like deforestation, have dropped by 20 per cent over the past decade but are expected to rise in 2024. Permanent CO2 removal through reforestation and new forest planting now offsets about half of the emissions from permanent deforestation, they added. Technology-based CO2 removal accounts for only a tiny fraction -- around one-millionth -- of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. The report said that emissions from fires in 2024 have been above the average since the beginning of the satellite record in 2003, particularly due to the extreme 2023 wildfire season in Canada (which continued into 2024) and severe drought in Brazil. Land and ocean carbon sinks continued to absorb around half of the total carbon emissions, despite being negatively affected by climate change.

Global fossil emissions to reach record high in 2024; India's share to rise by 4.6 pc: Report

In a massive move for the country’s growing climate woes, India is aiming to control weather phenomena like rainfall, lightning, and hail within five years. Dubbed "<keyword id="23131560" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mission-Mausam" source="keywords">Mission Mausam</keyword>," this government-backed initiative includes the development of <keyword id="23148975" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mausam-GPT" source="keywords">Mausam GPT</keyword>, a weather AI model designed to enhance prediction accuracy and even manipulate the weather. This would make India one of the first countries to experiment with <keyword id="21369368" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="weather-modification" source="keywords">weather modification</keyword> on a significant scale. <h2>Mission Mausam</h2>India’s "Mission Mausam" aims to reshape the future of weather management by using technology to control rain. Over the next 18 months, the government will start with lab simulations to either enhance or suppress rainfall. The ultimate goal, as outlined by Earth Sciences Secretary M. Ravichandran, is to roll out full-scale weather modification within five years. He stated that the initiative could even target events like Independence Day, where “one can think about suppressing rain.” By deploying <keyword id="20644540" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cloud-seeding" source="keywords">cloud seeding</keyword> techniques alongside AI-driven weather prediction tools like "Mausam GPT," the mission seeks to significantly improve India’s ability to manage extreme weather conditions. A key aspect of the plan involves building a robust system of advanced radars, supercomputers, satellites with high-performance sensors, and GIS-based decision support systems. This cutting-edge tech is expected to boost India’s short- and medium-range weather forecasting accuracy by 5-10%, ensuring no event — such as cloudbursts — goes undetected. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113251187" title="India braces for an intensely harsh winter as La Niña takes hold" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>India is not new to weather manipulation efforts. The government has been running pilot projects, such as the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) in Maharashtra, to study cloud properties and enhance rainfall. <h2>Why is weather manipulation necessary and is it safe?</h2>Extreme weather events in India, like deadly floods, droughts, and hailstorms, have noticeably increased in frequency due to <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword>. Mission Mausam could potentially give India an edge in combating these disasters. For example, imagine preventing a flood by suppressing rain or creating artificial rain during a drought. India’s investment of Rs 2,000 crore over two years certainly reflects the seriousness of the mission, which is expected to expand further as research progresses. However, weather modification, including cloud seeding, is not without controversy. Globally, cloud seeding has had limited success, with countries like the US, Russia, and China also experimenting with these methods but facing inconsistent results. Even former MoES Secretary Madhavan Rajeevan has noted that “the technology is complex” and still in its developmental stages. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112825937" title="Shivaji Maharaj Statue collapse: Identifying 5 reasons behind the accident" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Further, the potential downsides can't be ignored. While controlling the weather could save lives, meddling with natural processes is risky. Weather manipulation might have unintended ecological consequences, like shifting rainfall patterns that could harm ecosystems and agriculture. It may also pose geopolitical risks, as neighbouring countries could accuse India of altering weather systems that affect their own climates. Ultimately, while the idea of managing the weather may seem appealing, it opens up a Pandora’s box of environmental and ethical challenges that need careful consideration.

The Indian government is taking steps to control rainfall and weather within five years — is it too risky of a move?

It’s one thing to read about <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword> and <keyword id="19951337" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="carbon-emissions" source="keywords">carbon emissions</keyword> in an article, and quite another to see the toxic fumes engulfing your entire country — swirling over it like a certain menacing doom. <keyword id="19935155" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NASA" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="NASA" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="NASA">NASA</keyword> recently unveiled a groundbreaking visualisation tool that offers an unprecedented look at how carbon dioxide (CO2) moves around our planet. This high-resolution model provides a stunning, animated map of <keyword id="22576003" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-CO2-concentrations" source="keywords">global CO2 concentrations</keyword>, revealing the complex patterns of this crucial <keyword id="20719964" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="greenhouse-gas" source="keywords">greenhouse gas</keyword>. <div type="Youtube" id="zZ-lMDtiI-k" title="Model Behavior: Visualizing Global Carbon Dioxide" thumbUrl="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/zZ-lMDtiI-k/mqdefault.jpg"><url><![CDATA[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZ-lMDtiI-k]]></url></div>By combining billions of data points from satellites and ground observations, NASA scientists created a dynamic picture of how CO2 is emitted, transported, and absorbed across the globe. This interactive map showcases <keyword id="22576002" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CO2-concentrations" source="keywords">CO2 concentrations</keyword> as they shifted through Earth's atmosphere from January to March 2020, influenced by wind patterns and atmospheric circulation. With its exceptional detail, you can zoom in to pinpoint CO2 emissions rising from power plants, fires, and urban areas, as they spread across continents and oceans. Over India, you can see the greenhouse gas blowing over from neighbouring continents and also originating from the subcontinent. The pulsating oranges indicate CO2 concentrations of 420-460 ppm over India. <h2>The sources of CO2 </h2>One of the most striking features of the map is its ability to zoom in on specific regions, allowing viewers to see CO2 emissions rising from individual cities and industrial complexes. This level of detail provides a clear and compelling picture of human activities' impact on the environment. The map highlights distinct emission patterns across different regions. In China, the United States, and South Asia, power plants, industrial facilities, and vehicles were the primary contributors to CO2 emissions. Conversely, in Africa and South America, fires ignited by land management practices, agricultural burning, and deforestation, along with the combustion of oil and coal, were the main sources. <h2>Pulsating gases</h2>The map also highlights the role of natural systems in the carbon cycle. Forests, oceans, and other ecosystems absorb vast amounts of CO2, acting as vital carbon sinks. However, the visualisation also reveals how human activities are overwhelming these natural systems, leading to a buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere. Further, the map exhibits a pulsating appearance. This is because, firstly, fires typically intensify during daylight hours and subside at night, creating a diurnal pattern. Secondly, the absorption and release of CO2 by plants during photosynthesis and respiration contribute to the fluctuations. This pulsing effect is particularly noticeable in regions with abundant vegetation, such as mid- to high-latitude forests and tropical areas. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112021374" title="Scientists found a groundbreaking new reason to plant more trees" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>“This map is a powerful tool for understanding the scale and complexity of the climate crisis,” said [Quote from NASA scientist]. “It shows us where the biggest problems are and where we need to focus our efforts to reduce emissions.” The data behind the map comes from NASA's <keyword id="22576004" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="goddard-earth-observing-system" source="keywords">Goddard Earth Observing System</keyword> (GEOS), a sophisticated model that simulates Earth's atmosphere with incredible detail. By applying this model to CO2, scientists have gained new insights into the gas's behaviour and its impact on the planet. As the world grapples with the challenges of climate change, tools like this are essential for informing policy decisions, tracking progress, and inspiring action. NASA’s CO2 map is a remarkable achievement that offers a glimpse into the urgent need to transition to a low-carbon future. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111566431" title="June warmest on record; every month since July 2023 breached 1.5 deg C threshold" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>

WATCH: A NASA animation shows gigantic plumes of carbon dioxide emissions swirling over India

The deadly landslides in Kerala's ecologically fragile Wayanad district were triggered by a heavy burst of rainfall, made 10 per cent heavier by <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword>, according to a new rapid attribution study by a global team of scientists. Researchers from India, Sweden, the US and the UK warned that such events will become more common as the climate continues to warm. To measure the impact of human-caused climate change, the scientists from the <keyword id="12008149" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Weather-Attribution" source="Orion">World Weather Attribution</keyword> (WWA) group analysed climate models with high enough resolution to accurately reflect rainfall in the relatively small study area. The models indicated that the intensity of rainfall has increased by 10 per cent due to climate change, they said. The models also predict a further four per cent increase in rainfall intensity if the average <keyword id="21951013" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-temperature" source="keywords">global temperature</keyword> rises by two degrees Celsius compared to the 1850-1900 average. The scientists, however, said there is a "high level of uncertainty" in the model results as the study area is small and mountainous with complex rainfall-climate dynamics. Having said that, the increase in heavy one-day rainfall events aligns with a growing body of scientific evidence on extreme rainfall in a warming world, including in India, and the understanding that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to heavier downpours. According to scientists, the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture increases by about 7 per cent for every one-degree Celsius rise in global temperature. The Earth's global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.3 degrees Celsius due to the rapidly rising concentration of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide and methane. Scientists say this is the reason behind worsening <keyword id="19912530" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="extreme-weather-events" source="keywords">extreme weather events</keyword>, such as droughts, heat waves and floods worldwide. The WWA scientists said that while the relationship between land cover, land use changes and landslide risk in Wayanad is not fully clear from existing studies, factors, such as quarrying for building materials and a 62 per cent reduction in forest cover may have increased the slopes' susceptibility to landslides during heavy rainfall. Other researchers have also linked the <keyword id="22597176" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Wayanad-landslides" source="keywords">Wayanad landslides</keyword> to a combination of forest cover loss, mining in fragile terrain and prolonged rain followed by heavy precipitation. S Abhilash, the director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), had earlier told PTI that the warming of the Arabian Sea is leading to the formation of deep cloud systems, resulting in extremely heavy rainfall in Kerala in a short period and increasing the risk of landslides. "Our research found that the southeast Arabian Sea is becoming warmer, causing the atmosphere above Kerala to become thermodynamically unstable. This instability is allowing the formation of deep clouds," he had said. According to the landslide atlas released by ISRO's National Remote Sensing Centre last year, 10 out of the top 30 landslide-prone districts in India are in Kerala, with Wayanad ranked at the 13th spot. A study published by Springer in 2021 said all landslide hotspots in Kerala are in the Western Ghats region and are concentrated in Idukki, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Wayanad, Kozhikode and Malappuram districts. It said about 59 per cent of total landslides in Kerala have occurred in plantation areas. A 2022 study on depleting forest cover in Wayanad showed that 62 per cent of forests in the district disappeared between 1950 and 2018, while plantation cover rose by around 1,800 per cent.

Wayanad landslides linked to 10% heavier rainfall due to climate change: Study

<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> requires an investment support of USD 1.4 trillion — an average of USD 28 billion per year — to become a net-zero economy by 2070 and raising <keyword id="20260327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-resources" source="keywords">financial resources</keyword> for adaptation and mitigation action of this scale is an "unprecedented challenge", according to the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. Reaching net zero means achieving a balance between greenhouse gas emissions and the amount of these gases removed from the atmosphere by either natural processes, such as photosynthesis, or by other methods of carbon capture and storage. The consolidated report on the state of the economy in the previous year said India's climate action has been largely financed through domestic resources and the flow of international finance has been "very limited". Citing the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data, the report said bridging the "substantial funding gap" necessitates allocating 2.5 per cent of India's annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to <keyword id="20018880" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="green-finance" source="keywords">green finance</keyword>. "Preliminary estimates indicate that the aggregate investment support required by India to achieve its 2070 net-zero target will be USD 1.4 trillion at an average of USD 28 billion per year. Raising financial resources for <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword> adaptation and mitigation actions of this scale is an unprecedented challenge," the document read. A 2022 report by the Climate Policy Initiative found that domestic sources accounted for the majority of green finance in India, at 87 per cent and 83 per cent in financial years 2019 and 2020 respectively. While international sources are increasing (from 13 per cent in FY 2019 to 17 per cent in FY 2020), the economic survey said they are still insufficient to meet India's net-zero target. "Mobilising substantial capital from traditional sources presents multifaceted challenges in emerging economies like India. The perceived sovereign risks associated with emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and the capital-intensive nature of such projects, coupled with lengthy gestation periods and evolving regulatory frameworks, can create misalignment between investor expectations and project timelines," the government said. The economic survey also noted that the flows of global capital to <keyword id="20200084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="developing-countries" source="keywords">developing countries</keyword> have been impeded by high costs of capital. Despite securing a good rating on its green-bond framework, Indian sovereign <keyword id="20177085" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="green-bonds" source="keywords">green bonds</keyword> have hardly received any "greenium" from private investors. It is more a "wall of capital" than a "flood of capital" that is waiting to fund energy transition in EMDEs. It is just not mobile. All of these together have severely hampered the flow of finance for green-transition projects, the survey said. "Greenium" or green premium refers to the savings an issuer of a green bond realises on the associated coupon payment because the bond is green. Financial support to help middle-income and poor countries fight climate change will be at the centre of this year's UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, where the world will reach the deadline to agree on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) -- the new amount developed nations must mobilise every year starting 2025 to support climate action in developing countries. But achieving consensus will not be easy, given the disappointing progress made on major conflict points at the mid-year UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany. At the 2009 UN climate conference in Copenhagen, rich nations pledged to provide USD 100 billion annually from 2020 to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, delays in achieving this goal have eroded trust between developed and developing nations and have been a continual source of contention during annual climate negotiations. In May, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) claimed that developed countries had met the long-standing USD 100 billion-a-year promise by providing nearly USD 116 billion in <keyword id="20000757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-finance" source="keywords">climate finance</keyword> to developing countries in 2022, with nearly 70 per cent of the money given in the form of loans. However, international non-profit organisation Oxfam last week said climate finance provided by rich countries in 2022 totalled no more than USD 35 billion. Developing nations argue that they cannot be expected to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions faster if developed countries -- historically responsible for climate change -- do not provide enhanced financial support. Rich countries are now expected to raise more than USD 100 billion, with developing countries, including India, demanding trillions of dollars to tackle climate change.

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Global fossil emissions to reach record high in 2024; India's share to rise by 4.6 pc: Report

PTI

The Indian government is taking steps to control rainfall and weather within five years — is it too risky of a move?

Ankush Banerjee

WATCH: A NASA animation shows gigantic plumes of carbon dioxide emissions swirling over India

BI India Bureau

Wayanad landslides linked to 10% heavier rainfall due to climate change: Study

PTI

Raising massive financial resources for net-zero goal unprecedented challenge: Economic Survey

PTI

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