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New Delhi: India's fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise by 4.6 per cent in 2024, while China could see a marginal rise of 0.2 per cent, according to new research by a group of international scientists. As the UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, discussed raising trillions of dollars to tackle <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword>, the group of scientists known as the "Global Carbon Project" warned that emissions from fossil fuels -- the main driver of warming -- could hit a record 37.4 billion tonnes in 2024, up 0.8 percent from 2023 levels. This comes despite rapid growth in renewable energy and a landmark agreement at COP28 in Dubai last year to move away from fossil fuels. The "<keyword id="23948569" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-carbon-budget-2024" source="keywords">Global Carbon Budget 2024</keyword>" report said total global CO2 emissions are set to go up from 40.6 billion tons in 2023 to 41.6 billion metric tons in 2024, which is on course to become the warmest year on record. "The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked," Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter's Global Systems Institute, who led the study, said. The 'Global Carbon Project' team said India, the world's most populous country and fastest-growing major economy, may see its fossil fuel emissions rise by 4.6 percent. According to a UN report released last month, India's greenhouse gas emissions surged by 6.1 per cent in 2023, contributing to 8 per cent of the global total. However, the country's historical contribution to global CO2 emissions stands at only 3 per cent. India's per capita emissions remain low at 2.9 tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e), far below the global average of 6.6 tCO2e. India, the world's third-largest greenhouse gas emitter, has pledged to reach net zero emissions (balancing emissions with removals) by 2070 and aims to achieve 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030. China's emissions, which make up 32 per cent of the global total, are likely to increase slightly by 0.2 per cent, though there is a chance they could decline, according to the data released on Wednesday. Emissions from the United States and the European Union, which contribute 13 per cent and 7 per cent of the global total, are both set to decline, with drops of 0.6 per cent for the US and 3.8 per cent for the EU. Emissions from the rest of the world, which together account for 38 per cent of global emissions, could see a rise of 1.1 per cent. The researchers said that in 2024, coal emissions will likely increase by 0.2 per cent, oil by 0.9 per cent, and gas by 2.4 per cent, globally. Coal, oil, and gas contribute 41 per cent, 32 per cent, and 21 per cent of global fossil CO2 emissions, respectively. However, given the uncertainty in projections, it remains possible that coal emissions could decline in 2024, they said. The report also pointed out that emissions from international aviation and shipping, which account for 3 per cent of global emissions and are tracked separately from national or regional totals, are expected to rise by 7.8 per cent in 2024. However, these emissions will still be 3.5 per cent below the 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Globally, emissions from land-use changes, like deforestation, have dropped by 20 per cent over the past decade but are expected to rise in 2024. Permanent CO2 removal through reforestation and new forest planting now offsets about half of the emissions from permanent deforestation, they added. Technology-based CO2 removal accounts for only a tiny fraction -- around one-millionth -- of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. The report said that emissions from fires in 2024 have been above the average since the beginning of the satellite record in 2003, particularly due to the extreme 2023 wildfire season in Canada (which continued into 2024) and severe drought in Brazil. Land and ocean carbon sinks continued to absorb around half of the total carbon emissions, despite being negatively affected by climate change.

Global fossil emissions to reach record high in 2024; India's share to rise by 4.6 pc: Report

<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> requires an investment support of USD 1.4 trillion — an average of USD 28 billion per year — to become a net-zero economy by 2070 and raising <keyword id="20260327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-resources" source="keywords">financial resources</keyword> for adaptation and mitigation action of this scale is an "unprecedented challenge", according to the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. Reaching net zero means achieving a balance between greenhouse gas emissions and the amount of these gases removed from the atmosphere by either natural processes, such as photosynthesis, or by other methods of carbon capture and storage. The consolidated report on the state of the economy in the previous year said India's climate action has been largely financed through domestic resources and the flow of international finance has been "very limited". Citing the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data, the report said bridging the "substantial funding gap" necessitates allocating 2.5 per cent of India's annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to <keyword id="20018880" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="green-finance" source="keywords">green finance</keyword>. "Preliminary estimates indicate that the aggregate investment support required by India to achieve its 2070 net-zero target will be USD 1.4 trillion at an average of USD 28 billion per year. Raising financial resources for <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword> adaptation and mitigation actions of this scale is an unprecedented challenge," the document read. A 2022 report by the Climate Policy Initiative found that domestic sources accounted for the majority of green finance in India, at 87 per cent and 83 per cent in financial years 2019 and 2020 respectively. While international sources are increasing (from 13 per cent in FY 2019 to 17 per cent in FY 2020), the economic survey said they are still insufficient to meet India's net-zero target. "Mobilising substantial capital from traditional sources presents multifaceted challenges in emerging economies like India. The perceived sovereign risks associated with emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and the capital-intensive nature of such projects, coupled with lengthy gestation periods and evolving regulatory frameworks, can create misalignment between investor expectations and project timelines," the government said. The economic survey also noted that the flows of global capital to <keyword id="20200084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="developing-countries" source="keywords">developing countries</keyword> have been impeded by high costs of capital. Despite securing a good rating on its green-bond framework, Indian sovereign <keyword id="20177085" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="green-bonds" source="keywords">green bonds</keyword> have hardly received any "greenium" from private investors. It is more a "wall of capital" than a "flood of capital" that is waiting to fund energy transition in EMDEs. It is just not mobile. All of these together have severely hampered the flow of finance for green-transition projects, the survey said. "Greenium" or green premium refers to the savings an issuer of a green bond realises on the associated coupon payment because the bond is green. Financial support to help middle-income and poor countries fight climate change will be at the centre of this year's UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, where the world will reach the deadline to agree on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) -- the new amount developed nations must mobilise every year starting 2025 to support climate action in developing countries. But achieving consensus will not be easy, given the disappointing progress made on major conflict points at the mid-year UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany. At the 2009 UN climate conference in Copenhagen, rich nations pledged to provide USD 100 billion annually from 2020 to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, delays in achieving this goal have eroded trust between developed and developing nations and have been a continual source of contention during annual climate negotiations. In May, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) claimed that developed countries had met the long-standing USD 100 billion-a-year promise by providing nearly USD 116 billion in <keyword id="20000757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-finance" source="keywords">climate finance</keyword> to developing countries in 2022, with nearly 70 per cent of the money given in the form of loans. However, international non-profit organisation Oxfam last week said climate finance provided by rich countries in 2022 totalled no more than USD 35 billion. Developing nations argue that they cannot be expected to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions faster if developed countries -- historically responsible for climate change -- do not provide enhanced financial support. Rich countries are now expected to raise more than USD 100 billion, with developing countries, including India, demanding trillions of dollars to tackle climate change.

Raising massive financial resources for net-zero goal unprecedented challenge: Economic Survey

According to a new analysis, <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> contributed $1.28 billion in <keyword id="20000757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-finance" source="keywords">climate finance</keyword> through <keyword id="20401772" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="multilateral-development-banks" source="keywords">multilateral development banks</keyword> (MDBs) in 2022, surpassing the contributions of many developed countries. The study, conducted by the UK-based think tank ODI and the <keyword id="23038658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Zurich-Climate-Resilience-Alliance" source="Orion">Zurich Climate Resilience Alliance</keyword>, comes amid a renewed push by some developed countries to broaden the donor base for climate finance to include developing countries like China and <keyword id="50996" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Saudi-Arabia" source="Orion">Saudi Arabia</keyword>. The report reveals that only 12 developed countries provided their fair share of international climate finance in 2022. These countries are -- Norway, France, Luxembourg, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Japan, the Netherlands, Austria, Belgium and Finland. Researchers noted that the significant gap in climate finance is largely due to the United States failing to contribute its fair share. Australia, Spain, Canada and the United Kingdom also performed relatively poorly in this regard. The analysis has identified the top 30 non-Annex II countries that provided substantial climate finance to developing countries in 2022 through multilateral contributions to development banks and climate funds. This group includes former economies in transition like Poland and Russia, countries that have achieved high-income status since 1992, such as Chile, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and South Korea, and middle-income countries with large populations, including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, the Philippines and Pakistan. India provided $1.287 billion in climate finance to other developing countries through MDBs in 2022, a sum larger than what was contributed by some developed countries like Greece ($0.23 billion), Portugal ($0.23 billion), Ireland ($0.3 billion) and New Zealand ($0.27 billion). China provided $ 2.52 billion in climate finance through MDBs in 2022, Brazil gave $ 1.135 billion, South Korea gave $1.13 billion and Argentina gave $1.01 billion. According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (<keyword id="21931277" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="UNFCCC" source="keywords">UNFCCC</keyword>), adopted in 1992, high-income, industrialised countries (referred to as Annex-II countries) are responsible for providing finance and technology to help developing countries combat and adapt to climate change. These countries, including the US, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and European Union (EU) member states, such as Germany, France and the UK, have historically benefitted from industrialisation and contributed the most to greenhouse gas emissions. At COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, these developed countries pledged to jointly provide $100 billion each year by 2020 to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, this target has not been fully met, leading to a significant finance gap. This shortfall has eroded trust and hindered climate action in developing countries. In May, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (<keyword id="19916574" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="OECD" source="keywords">OECD</keyword>) claimed that developed countries had met the long-standing $ 100 billion-a-year promise by providing nearly $ 116 billion in climate finance to developing countries in 2022, with nearly 70 % of the money given in the form of loans. The ODI researchers pointed out that many developed countries, despite performing well in terms of climate-finance contributions, would make "markedly less progress towards meeting their fair share if the finance provided was accounted for on grant-equivalence terms" -- in other words, if it reflected their real fiscal effort. The report calls for the inclusion of a "burden-sharing mechanism" in the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) to provide clarity on each country's obligations and hold countries accountable. The NCQG refers to the new, larger amount that developed nations must mobilise annually, starting 2025, to support climate action in developing countries. Countries are expected to finalise the NCQG at this year's UN climate conference -- <keyword id="20082972" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="COP29" source="keywords">COP29</keyword> -- in Baku, Azerbaijan in November. The current $100 billion annual climate-finance goal is a collective commitment by developed countries. Its collective nature has meant that individual developed countries are not accountable for specific sums of money, potentially reducing the overall amount of climate finance provided due to the lack of individual scrutiny. The inclusion of a burden-sharing arrangement among developed countries could potentially strengthen the NCQG by fostering greater accountability and trust among parties, according to the ODI researchers. Many developing countries, including India, have recently advocated for such an arrangement to enhance accountability among developed countries.

India provided more climate finance in 2022 than many rich nations, noted recent report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Turbulence is being examined more closely in the wake of several recent incidents.</li><li>An expert in aviation and the climate told BI how the warming atmosphere makes turbulence worse.</li></ul>Since a 73-year-old British man <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/singapore-airlines-passenger-dies-after-severe-turbulence-2024-5">died on board a Singapore Airlines flight</a> in May, turbulence has been examined more closely.Another 71 people were sent to hospital after the Boeing 777 diverted to Bangkok. Singaporean officials said the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/singapore-airlines-flight-turbulence-death-investigation-report-details-2024-5">plane dropped 178 feet in four seconds</a>. Passengers hit the ceiling, and a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/singapore-airlines-cabin-crew-burned-by-boiling-water-amid-turbulence-2024-5">crew member was burned by boiling water</a>.Two weeks later, at an industry conference, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airlines-to-tighten-seatbelt-rules-use-ai-to-predict-turbulence-2024-6">Emirates' president said</a> the incident would likely lead to stricter seatbelt rules.Incidents resulting in serious injuries are still <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/serious-injuries-due-to-turbulence-are-extremely-rare-2024-5">extremely rare</a>, but overall, turbulence appears to be getting more common.On the one hand, the media has covered more incidents in the wake of the Singapore Airlines flight. But they are also becoming more frequent due to the climate crisis — especially over the Atlantic Ocean.That's according to Guy Gratton, an associate professor of aviation and the environment at Cranfield University, who spoke to Business Insider over video call.<h2 id="6501415f-d5e2-4d24-a2a5-a7bcaad06fa9">What is clear air turbulence?</h2>"We all know that there is wind, and we all know that the wind is not even. It's not all going in the same direction at the same speed, at the same time," Gratton said."So when you get a difference between airflow, you get friction between the air molecules," he said. "That friction creates a more complex flow, where air is flowing in apparently random directions — up, down, left, right, et cetera — and changing speed. ""That is turbulence, and it's there all the time," he added.If a plane flies through turbulence, it tries to align itself with the changing airflow, so its motion becomes erratic."It's essentially like taking a box with something in it and starting to shake the box up and down," Gratton said. "And clearly, if you're the person who's inside the box, then you get thrown around inside the box, and that's where injuries happen.""<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airline-pilot-passengers-should-always-wear-seatbelts-singapore-airlines-turbulence-2024-5">Passengers are told to keep their seatbelts done up</a> because if you're tied to the box, you're much less likely to get injured," he added.At altitude, there are two main types of turbulence. One is caused by convective currents and is associated with thunderstorms. The other is clear air turbulence, which was involved in the Singapore Airlines incident.As the name implies, clear air turbulence is hard to anticipate since it isn't associated with clouds. It's typically found at the edges of jet streams — rivers of fast-flowing air. Earth has four main ones, two near the poles and two near the equator. The difference in wind speed between these jet streams and the air around them creates clear air turbulence.<h2 id="e2b53637-9ded-426d-a8a3-cd782d6080fc">Why the climate crisis causes more turbulence</h2>In a <a target="_blank" href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103814">2023 study</a>, researchers at the University of Reading found that turbulence was getting more common over the North Atlantic. It said that over a typical point, the most severe type of clear air turbulence increased by 55% between 1979 and 2020.This is linked to the north polar jet stream. Its tailwinds are why flying from the US to Europe is faster than flying from Europe to the US.Gratton explained how the warming atmosphere speeds up the jet streams — causing more severe turbulence.It's linked to the relationship between two layers of the Earth's atmosphere. The lowest one is the troposphere, where the temperature cools as you get higher. Above that is the stratosphere, where the temperature is constant."What's happening with climate change is the troposphere is getting warmer, the lower stratosphere is actually getting slightly colder."The increasing difference in energy between the two layers means more energy goes into the jet stream, Gratton said.It also enlarges Rossby waves, which are meanders found in the jet stream."So if you're trying to fly across the Atlantic, you've now got bigger waves in the jet stream, and you've also got more energy in the jet stream," Gratton said. "So that is creating more friction, which is creating more turbulence.""Therefore crossing the Atlantic, climate change is making encounters with clear air turbulence more likely and more severe," he added.

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Global fossil emissions to reach record high in 2024; India's share to rise by 4.6 pc: Report

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Raising massive financial resources for net-zero goal unprecedented challenge: Economic Survey

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India provided more climate finance in 2022 than many rich nations, noted recent report

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Turbulence is getting more frequent and more severe. An aviation and climate expert explains why.

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