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The job market is in the 'Twilight Zone,' top economist Claudia Sahm says

"One month does not make a trend, and even with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, a susta…

Jennifer Sor   


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The Fed needs to 'start getting out of the way' and deliver a big rate cut next week, famed economist Claudia Sahm says

Sahm reiterated that her namesake rule is flashing a false signal because the jump in unemployment …

Matthew Fox   


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The US job market is close to the 'danger zone,' famed economist Claudia Sahm says

The job market's highly accurate recession indicator is close to triggering its warning on the US e…

Jennifer Sor   


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4 things Biden can do to tame COVID and inflation right now, according to former Fed economist

Biden's spending plans will do much good, but Americans need faster results on the virus and inflat…

Ben Winck   


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Almost half of Americans used the $1,400 stimulus checks to pay off debt

Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm recently published a paper looking at how the third round of stim…

Madison Hoff   


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4 mins read

The bleak January jobs report may be exactly what Biden needs to push his stimulus agenda forward

The $1.9 trillion plan could keep Americans in the labor force and spur small businesses to rehire,…

Ben Winck   


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Stock market today: Indexes slide as chipmaker rout drags tech ahead of key earnings

AMD and SMCI dragged chip shares lower on Wednesday. Investors are awaiting more big tech earnings …

Filip De Mott   


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2 economists explain why the Fed should cut rates more than expected next month

Claudia Sahm thinks there's a strong case for a 50-basis point cut in September, given labor market…

Filip De Mott   


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There's a 40% chance the US economy is already in a recession, according to a new indicator

Using measures that builds on the Sahm rule, a new indicator says there's a 40% chance the US is in…

Kelly Cloonan   


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3 mins read

Why the October jobs report on Friday could sink the market's soft-landing narrative

"There's really not much evidence that the labor market's meaningfully inflected higher in Septembe…

William Edwards   


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A widely followed recession signal just flashed, but its inventor says a downturn isn't guaranteed

Claudia Sahm, who created a widely followed recession signal, told BI why she still has hope for th…

Madison Hoff   


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Surging US unemployment has triggered a recession indicator with a perfect track record

While the so-called Sahm Rule indicator, which has been remarkably accurate throughout history, has…

Matthew Fox   


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People are still flocking to Florida. It could help them ride out a slowdown in the economy.

Florida's strong population growth is boosting the state's economy and could help residents weather…

John Towfighi   


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The creator of a famed recession indicator says the Fed is 'playing with fire' by not cutting rates now

A labor-tracking recession gauge is nearing its threshold, and the Fed needs to cut now to stop it.

Filip De Mott   


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It may already be too late for the Fed to stop a recession, former central bank president says

"Although it might already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates, dawdling now unnec…

Filip De Mott   


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Stock market today: Indexes jump as traders try to rebound from Monday's losses

"The economy will chug along and we probably won't see a recession," Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomo…

Matthew Fox   


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4 mins read

The job market may be strong, but tell that to anyone looking for work or feeling stuck

The strong job growth in September doesn't mean everything is wonderful for those wishing to find a…

Madison Hoff,Juliana Kaplan   


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Why the Fed will have to cut rates more than expected this year, ING says

The employment component of the ISM index plunged to 43.4 from 49.3 in July, representing the worst…

Matthew Fox   


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Why you shouldn't worry about the job market and a recession just yet

The jobless rate is rising, but that doesn't mean the US is destined for mass unemployment and a re…

Jacob Zinkula   


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Lower interest rates could be coming soon. Here's what's at stake if they aren't.

Interest rate cuts could finally come this year. Economists explained the benefits of rate cuts and…

Madison Hoff,Ayelet Sheffey