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Domestic <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">gold prices</keyword> have risen by 10% on a year-to-date basis on the back of the strength in global gold prices, which have surged by 18% year-to-date, driven by robust <keyword id="19894998" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-bank" source="keywords">central bank</keyword> purchases, heightened geopolitical risks, and growing expectations of a monetary policy pivot from the <keyword id="19901377" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-federal-reserve" source="keywords">US Federal Reserve</keyword>, according to the <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Gold-Council" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Gold Council" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="World Gold Council">World Gold Council</keyword>. The reduction in <keyword id="20069572" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="import-duty" source="keywords">import duty</keyword> has ignited a resurgence in gold demand across <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. Reports from the recently concluded India International Jewellery Show indicate a substantial increase in order bookings from retailers, particularly in preparation for the upcoming festive and wedding season. Manufacturers have noted that in some cases, orders have reached levels not seen in several years, underscoring the strong buying interest among <keyword id="21595593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jewellery-retailers" source="keywords">jewellery retailers</keyword> and consumers alike. The trend of bar and coin buying has also remained robust, with both consumers and jewellers capitalizing on the more attractive prices to stock up for future manufacturing needs. Historical analysis suggests that Indian consumer demand, encompassing jewellery and bar and coin demand, could see an additional 50 tonnes or more in the second half of 2024. This potential increase is fueled by a combination of an initial boost in consumer appetite due to the more attractive prices and a longer-term alignment of local prices with international rates. In a notable shift, domestic gold prices, which had been trading at a discount to international prices for five consecutive months, have now started trading at a premium following the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> announcement. The discount had widened significantly in July, reaching a peak of around $80 per ounce in the third week of the month, driven by subdued demand and an increased supply of gold through various preferential trade agreements and unofficial channels. However, wholesalers who had inventory purchased under the old customs duty regime began selling gold at a premium to the landed cost to mitigate their losses, further supported by increased consumer demand. While the premiums have moderated recently, from $28 per ounce to around USD 5 per ounce, this shift highlights the changing market sentiment and the impact of rising international gold prices and potential inventory valuation adjustments. The changes introduced in the Union Budget, including a reduction in the long-term investment holding period and a lower tax rate, have made gold ETFs a more attractive investment option. Data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) reveals that net inflows into gold ETFs in July amounted to Rs 13.4 billion (approximately USD 160 million), marking the highest monthly inflows since February 2020 and an 84% increase compared to June 2024. Despite these inflows, the total assets under management (AUM) for Indian gold ETFs grew marginally by 0.3% from the previous month, reaching Rs 345 billion ($4.1 billion). This modest increase can be attributed to the 8 % fall in domestic gold prices following the import duty reduction. Year-to-date, net inflows into Indian gold ETFs have totalled Rs 45 billion ($543 million), with total AUMs rising by 48 % from a year ago. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has continued its gold purchasing trend, although at a slower pace following a significant increase in June, when purchases reached 9.3 tonnes--the highest monthly total in nearly two years. Year-to-date, the RBI's gold acquisitions have totaled 44.3 tonnes, surpassing the total purchases of the past two years combined. The RBI's gold reserves have now reached a record 849 tonnes, representing 8.8% of total foreign reserves, compared to 7.5 % a year ago. In July, gold imports remained steady at $3.1 billion, maintaining the stable trend observed over the previous three months. Between April and July, imports averaged $3.2 billion, with volumes ranging between 43 and 47 tonnes during this period. The gold import bill for July 2024 was 11 % lower than the previous year, with an estimated 26% decrease in volume terms, around 47 tonnes. Despite a surge in international gold prices, domestic gold prices in India have experienced a notable decline, primarily due to the 9 % reduction in import duty announced in the Union Budget 2024-25. This policy change has led to a 6% decrease in the landed cost of gold, marking a shift in the domestic gold market dynamics.

Domestic gold prices surge 10% amid global price rally, central bank buying: World Gold Council

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Europe's economy could be negatively impacted by Trump's proposed tariffs, economists say.</li><li>They say the EU will need to employ some retaliatory measures but has to be careful not to escalate.</li></ul>The US stock market has cheered the pro-business agenda that Donald Trump has promised in a second term, but policymakers in Europe are bracing for potentially tough four years ahead as the President-elect looks poised to potentially set off <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">a new trade war</a>. Trump has championed tariffs as a key protectionist policy to boost his "America first" agenda, proposing sweeping tariffs of 10%-20% on all countries and 60% on goods from China. Europe appears particularly at risk from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-europe-recession-fears-economy-exports-autos-bank-2024-11">the impact of tariffs</a> amid an already fragile economy, experts said.Germany's central bank president <a target="_blank" href="https://www.zeit.de/2024/48/joachim-nagel-bundesbankchef-wirtschaftskrise-inflation-ampel-aus">Joachim Nagel</a> says the tariffs could cost the country 1% of its GDP, causing it to possibly slip into negative growth next year, while both French President Emmanuel Macron and former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi have warned the US and Europe are barreling toward a trade war. Goldman Sachs said recently the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-presidency-impact-election-europe-economic-growth-gdp-goldman-sachs-2024-11">tariffs could cost</a> the whole euro area a 0.5% hit to real GDP, with the bulk of the downturn likely to be felt next year.Economists and analysts said that in order to avoid a trade war, policymakers in Europe need to employ a specific playbook to mitigate the economic drag while keeping trade tensions in check.<h2 id="503c71ba-c363-4216-ac76-b4f4d82a312f">Retaliatory tariffs, but at a smaller scale</h2>According to Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, the European Union will likely need to retaliate, though not in exactly the same way as the US.Kenningham says the EU will likely hit the US with targeted tariffs on certain industries, rather than an across-the-board action."It would probably impose targeted tariffs on products of symbolic or political importance rather than an across-the-board tariff and probably on a fairly modest scale," he wrote in a recent note.It wouldn't be the first time the EU has employed such measures. Kenningham points to the EU's use of item-specific duties on US imports, like Harley Davidsons and bourbon whiskey, after Trump employed tariffs on steel and aluminum from the EU during his first term in 2018.Those retaliatory tariffs were worth less than half those imposed by the US at the time, but worked to soften the blow without instigating further tensions between the US and Europe, he said.This time around, any retaliation will have to strike a similarly smaller blow than the actions from the US, Kenningham said."They want to de-escalate, rather than escalate any trade conflict," he told Business Insider.<h2 id="4cd91793-34a3-437e-9bac-22a987b5117e">Trade deals to avoid tariffs</h2>Kenningham said EU policymakers could also negotiate a deal to avoid US tariffs. The European Commission could pledge to purchase certain commodities from the US in greater quantities in exchange for an exemption from tariffs, similar to how the commission negotiated over purchases of liquefied natural gas and soybeans in Trump's first term.Kenningham says the commission doesn't have total control over actually implementing these trade deals, though, so it's unlikely Trump would opt to go that route again.Alternatively, the bloc could strike a deal to purchase more defense equipment from the US to continue <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/eu-lend-ukraine-45-billion-with-without-the-us-russia-2024-9">supporting Ukraine</a> as the US appears likely to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">scale back</a>, Kenningham added.<h2 id="71c65274-fbec-4f67-a682-6d1449f58ee3">Match the US's lean away from China</h2>Another option would be for the EU to try and side with the US in its trade war with China, Kenningham says, referring to Trump's proposals for 60% tariffs on good from China. That could mean further barriers to imports of Chinese electric vehicles, as well as more curbs on investment from Chinese firms in Europe, he says.That plan could face pushback from Germany, though, since China is a big market for its stumbling <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-auto-giants-volkswagen-bmw-mercedes-struggle-sales-china-evs-2024-10">auto industry</a>."The automotive sector is frontline. German car producers are extremely exposed to the Chinese market," the Brookings Institution's Carlo Bastasin said, adding, "The automotive sector is undoubtedly vulnerable. It's already going very, very badly."But the EU may not have a choice, Kenningham said."Admittedly, the EU will not want to drastically cut ties with China," he wrote. "But policymakers may be forced to move more rapidly if faced with strong US pressure."In reality, some version of all of those potential actions will likely come into play, Kenningham added. For now, trade experts say it's still unclear when—and how much—Trump will raise tariffs on the EU.Bastasin doesn't expect tariffs as high as Trump has threatened, and thinks they will fall closer to 5%, which isn't a sizable increase from the 3% tariff average reached under his first presidency. Still, he warned that any drastic actions from the US could pose long-term risks to the relationship between the two powers."There is a possibility that if the strategy toward Europe is very aggressive, Europeans may change attitudes toward the Transatlantic Alliance. I don't mean NATO, but on traditional friendship and cooperation," Bastasin said.

How Europe can avoid a trade war in a 2nd Trump term

<keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> are navigating choppy waters as global economic shifts, from rate cuts to evolving political climates, create new pressure points across the financial landscape, according to a recent report by ANI attributed originally to the Union Bank of India. The domestic stock and bond markets showed signs of strain, with <keyword id="19910363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-yields" source="keywords">bond yields</keyword> witnessing slight adjustments. India’s 10-year government bond yield dipped to 6.82%, a decrease from the previous session, reflecting cautious investor sentiment as the markets react to shifting global indicators. Meanwhile, the 5-year bond yield remained steady at 6.76%, a signal of lingering hesitation amid economic unpredictability. In the currency market, the rupee faced a notable decline, ending the day at ₹84.3725 against the US dollar, slipping from its prior close of ₹84.2800. Market analysts point to significant capital outflows as a key factor, with investors moving funds to perceived safer assets overseas. This migration has weighed heavily on the rupee, underlining the currency’s vulnerability in an environment of global economic flux. India’s stock market bore the brunt of this volatility, with key indices falling over 1%, effectively erasing the gains of a previous rally. This abrupt drop reportedly reflects renewed investor anxiety, largely triggered by the recent <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword> results. Experts suggest that the election has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty, not only for the US economy but for global markets, impacting everything from policy decisions to investor sentiment. Analysts are also keeping a close eye on upcoming decisions by central banks, which will likely shape the path forward for the Indian equities market. Commodities showed contrasting trends, with Brent crude prices falling on lower demand expectations, as economic indicators point toward cautious spending globally. Gold, on the other hand, experienced a modest rise as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets, highlighting a shift towards risk aversion among market participants. Globally, major central banks made coordinated efforts to sustain economic growth, with the Bank of England (BoE) announcing a 25 basis-point cut, lowering its benchmark rate to 4.75%. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) largely backed this move to counter inflation, which has been declining, albeit gradually. Across the Atlantic, the US Federal Reserve mirrored this action with its own 25 basis-point cut, a sign of confidence in the ongoing economic recovery. Both rate cuts, though modest, signal a global trend towards caution as economies work to balance growth with stability. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its supportive stance. Governor Pan Gongsheng sought to reassure foreign investors by reaffirming the PBoC’s commitment to growth-oriented policies. Pan emphasized enhanced communication and pledged to open China’s financial services sector further, aiming to attract more international participants. Europe, meanwhile, faced mixed economic signals. Germany reported a steep 2.5% drop in industrial production in September, signalling a slowdown in manufacturing, while the Eurozone saw a mild 0.5% rise in retail sales, reflecting cautious consumer optimism in the region. Adding another layer to the global economic landscape, the European Union’s Climate Change Service warned that 2024 could be the hottest year on record, underscoring urgent climate challenges just as the UN COP29 climate summit approaches. The summit, set to take place in Azerbaijan, aims to rally increased funding for climate action, though tempered expectations linger in light of recent US political shifts. On the domestic front, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam spoke about India’s potential role in pivotal global trade agreements, specifically the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). These partnerships, Subrahmanyam suggested, could bolster India’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector, which currently accounts for 40% of India’s exports, offering a strategic advantage for Indian trade in an interconnected world. As the Indian markets digest these developments, experts believe continued volatility could be the theme for the coming months. (with ANI inputs)

Indian markets under pressure as global rate cuts stir uncertainty, new report says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia is proposing alternative payment systems and commodity centers.</li><li>The proposal aims to strengthen BRICS economies' sovereignty and reduce dollar reliance.</li></ul>Russia has released new details on how it could move away from the dollar, part of a long-running effort to buoy trade amid Western sanctions.Earlier this month, Russia's Finance Ministry, its central bank, and Moscow-based consultancy Yakov &amp; Partners outlined the country's vision of what the country is aiming for in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.yakovpartners.com/publications/imfs/">report.</a>Other than championing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-russia-actively-working-brics-local-currencies-platform-us-dollar-2024-6">alternative payment</a> systems based in non-dollar currencies, Russia is also pitching the set-up of centers for mutual trade in commodity resources.Russia is a commodity giant and a major producer of oil, natural gas, gold, and grains. However, the country has been heavily sanctioned by the US following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has impacted its oil and gas trade.The report proposed setting up foundations for commodity trading centers but did not provide details. However, it explained why it was a good idea."This measure will ensure independent pricing and strengthen the sovereignty of the BRICS economies," the report said, referring to Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — the anchor members of the BRICS emerging markets group.Such a measure would add to what Russia is already doing to keep trade humming amid sweeping sanctions, such as those that block banks from dealing with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-all-china-banks-refuse-yuan-ruble-transfers-sanctions-2024-8">payment transactions</a> involving Russian companies.Another offbeat way Russia is beating sanctions is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-barter-pakistan-mounting-sanctions-western-war-allies-international-trade-2024-10">barter trade. </a>One Russian company struck an agreement to trade chickpeas and lentils for tangerines, rice, and potatoes from Pakistan, according to Tass state news agency earlier this month.Such alternative payment systems and bartering "are based on a notion that any involved institutions, even if faced with extraterritorial restrictions, will retain unchallenged access to their domestic market that will allow them to effectively facilitate domestic and cross-border transactions," the report said.Moving BRICS trade to trading centers within the bloc would also involve the use of local currencies and facilitate a move away from using the dollar for trade, according to the document.Russia's report on alternative payments and trading systems came weeks before the annual BRICS summit, which will be held in the Russian city of Kazan from October 22 to October 24.The proposal also came months after Russia proposed a grain-trading exchange for BRICS members, as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/101594/">Interfax</a> news agency reported in April.BRICS member countries are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1024.pdf">major producers and exporters</a> of grains in the world market, with Russia accounting for about one-quarter of the world's wheat exports. Meanwhile, Brazil accounts for about 60% of the world's soybean exports, and India accounts for about 40% of the world's rice shipments.Most global grain prices are set on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are dominated by the US dollar."The BRICS countries, being key participants in the global grain market, cannot fully participate in the formation of prices for economically fundamental and food security-essential products as wheat, barley and corn, world prices for which are formed, and often manipulated, in third countries," Russia's Union of Grain Exporters wrote in a letter to the country's Agriculture Ministry in December when it proposed a BRICS grain exchange.Russia faces an uphill battle in changing the basics of dollar-dependent financial trading systems. Right now, dollar-based trade participants can easily enter and exit their positions, whereas bartering or using other currencies could reduce liquidity and flexibility.Since there's already heavy trading in CME's grain markets, it would be challenging for new exchanges and their products to lure participants over en masse.Brent crude oil futures, for example, are still the world's benchmark and are actively traded. However, their namesake <a target="_blank" href="https://www.shell.co.uk/about-us/sustainability/decommissioning/brent-field-decommissioning/brent-field-decommissioning-programme.html">Brent oil fields</a> in Scotland are being decommissioned due to resource depletion.As the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2015/02/pdf/c2_v2.pdf">International Monetary Fund</a> explained in a 2021 report, "because of the network nature of markets, effects tend to be self-reinforcing— high market liquidity tends to attract more traders and so forth."

Russia pitches trading centers in a widening plan to move away from the US-dominated global financial order 

The Centre should create a buffer stock of mustard seeds of at least 2.5 million tonnes, like pulses, to enhance domestic production and reduce imports of cooking oils, the <keyword id="1086632" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-organization-for-oil-industry-and-trade" source="Orion">Central Organization for Oil Industry and Trade</keyword> (<keyword id="1598377" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cooit" source="Orion">COOIT</keyword>) said on Tuesday as part of its wish list ahead of the budget. "The procurement for the proposed creation of buffer stock should be made at market price at the very beginning of crop season, which will ensure oil processing units would operate throughout the year," the COOIT, an apex body for the vegetable oils sector, said in a statement. It also wants the government to widen the gap between import duties of crude edible oils and refined edible oils. India imported edible oils worth Rs 1.17 lakh crore, an all-time high, in the 2020-21 oil marketing year ended October, mainly due to a sharp rise in global prices. COOIT feels that its high time the central and state governments focus on increasing domestic production of oilseeds. "We urge the government to launch a dedicated scheme in the upcoming budget with a significant allocation to encourage farmers for cultivation of various oilseeds crops like mustard, soyabean and sunflower," COOIT chairperson Suresh Nagpal said. The government had in August 2021 launched the National Mission on Edible Oils - Oil Palm (NMEO-OP) with a financial outlay of Rs 11,040 crore to boost domestic production of palm oil. "A similar initiative should be undertaken to increase the cultivation of mustard," he said. "Like wheat and rice, a small quantity of <keyword id="589337" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mustard-oil" source="Orion">mustard oil</keyword> can be supplied every month to over 80 crore beneficiaries covered under the National Food Security Act at a subsidised rate. This will prompt farmers to cultivate mustard," the COOIT chairperson said. The government has offered an increased MSP for mustard this year and the results have started showing with the area under mustard cultivation likely to increase by 25 per cent and mustard production estimated to be at 110 lakh tonnes. "If the government creates a buffer stock of 25 lakh tones of mustard, it will further encourage mustard cultivation and also act as a price stabilization mechanism in case of sharp fluctuations in mustard prices as it was witnessed during 2021," Nagpal said. The association also strongly said that the difference between import duty on crude edible oils and refined edible oils should be larger to protect the interest of domestic processors. Earlier the difference was 11 per cent, which is now at 5.5 per cent. "This is adversely impacting crude palm oil (CPO) refining industry in India and hence, duty differential needs to be increased,a the statement said. Established in 1952, COOIT is the national apex body representing the interests of the entire vegetable oil sector in the country and its members include state-level associations, prominent manufacturing/business, trade, and export house. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/decline-in-car-bike-and-scooter-sales-is-now-hurting-hdfc-bank/articleshow/88960539.cms" style="">Shrinking car and two-wheeler sales is now hurting India’s biggest private bank</a>\ <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/careers/news/8-in-10-people-are-looking-to-switch-jobs-in-2022-linkedin-says/slidelist/88966651.cms">8 in 10 Indians are looking to switch jobs in 2022</a>

Centre should create buffer stock of mustard: Oil industry association

The <keyword id="6357307" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="central-government" source="Orion">central government</keyword> has released an amount worth Rs 17,000 crore to states and <keyword id="6357801" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="union" source="Orion">Union</keyword> territories towards the balance GST compensation for the period April to June 2022. The total amount of compensation released to the States/UTs so far, including thus Rs 17,000 crore, during the year 2022-23 is Rs 1,15,662 crore, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement on Friday. "This is despite the fact that total Cess collection till October 2022 is only Rs.72,147 crore and the balance of Rs. 43,515 crores is being released by the Centre from its own resources. With this release, the Centre has released, in advance, the entire amount of Cess estimated to be collected this year till March-end available for payment of compensation to States," the statement added. This decision was taken to assist the States in managing their resources and ensuring that their programmes especially the expenditure on capital is carried out successfully during the financial year. "Even in May this year, the Central Government had released Rs. 86,912 crores as provisional GST compensation to States for the period Feb-May'2022 despite the fact that there was only about Rs. 25,000 crores in the GST Compensation Fund, by making arrangement of funds of around Rs. 62,000 crores from its own resources," the statement said. Goods and Services Tax was introduced in the country with effect from July 1, 2017, and states were assured compensation for loss of any revenue arising on account of the implementation of GST as per the provisions of the GST (Compensation to States) Act, 2017 for a period of five years. For providing compensation to States, Cess is levied on certain goods and the amount of Cess collected is being credited to Compensation Fund. Compensation to States is being paid out of the Compensation Fund with effect from July 1, 2017. In other news, Union Finance Minister <keyword id="2640262" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="nirmala-sitharman" source="Orion">Nirmala Sitharman</keyword> has chaired a pre-Budget meeting with the finance ministers of all States and Union Territories today for taking their inputs and suggestions for the upcoming Budget for 2023-24. Besides Sitharaman and state/UT finance ministers, Union MoS for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary and <keyword id="1073554" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="bhagwat-karad" source="Orion">Bhagwat Karad</keyword>, secretaries from various arms of the Union finance ministry, Chief Economic Advisor Anantha Nageswaran, among others attended the meeting. The Budget for 2023-24 is likely to be tabled on February 1. Notably, it will be the last full Budget for Modi 2.0 government before the <keyword id="6355187" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="Orion">Lok Sabha</keyword> elections to be held in April-May of 2024. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/india-uae-in-talks-for-rupee-dirham-denominated-bilateral-trade/articleshow/95766169.cms">India, UAE in talks for rupee-dirham denominated bilateral trade</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/forex-kitty-grows-for-2nd-consecutive-week-rises-2-54-bn-to-547-25-bn/articleshow/95767390.cms">Forex kitty grows for 2nd consecutive week; rises $2.54 bn to $547.25 bn</a>

Centre releases ₹17,000 cr as GST compensation to States/UTs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's oil and gas trade is on the up after more than a year of struggling in the face of sanctions. </li><li>The nation is expected to make $7.6 billion this month from oil and gas sales, Reuters estimates.</li></ul>Russia's energy trade is on the mend after more than a year of plunging revenues, according to the latest estimates.Russia's oil and gas revenues are expected to rise around 733 billion rubles, or $7.6 billion through the month of September, according to an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-oil-gas-revenues-set-rise-14-september-reuters-calculations-2023-09-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">estimate from Reuters</a> published Tuesday. That's a 14% jump from the $6.6 billion in profits Russia raked in during the month of August, and a 7% increase from September of last year, when Russia took $7.1 billion from its oil and gas sales.The revenue hike is partly attributable to rising oil prices, after Russia vowed to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/saudi-arabia-oil-production-cut-opec-2d6f724e899f31e92d4bdf052921125c">extend its pledged oil production cuts through the end of the year</a>. That led the average price for <a href="https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-center/?id_4=38643-o_srednei_tsene_na_neft_marki_urals" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Urals crude, Russia's flagship oil blend, to rise to $74 a barrel in August</a>, up from $60 a barrel last month, according to data from Russia's Finance Ministry. Meanwhile, the nation's total oil export revenue jumped $1.8 billion to $17.1 billion, according to <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2023" target="_blank" rel="noopener">International Energy Agency</a> data.Russia is also imposing higher taxes on its energy suppliers, another factor contributing rising profits. The nation is expected to take in an extra 24% in mineral extraction taxes over the next month, totaling $1.1 trillion roubles, Reuters' analysis shows. Those trends are a stark contrast to the past year, when Russia's oil and gas revenues tanked as the west imposed strict sanctions on its energy trade. Russian crude was banned from the European Union and placed under a $60 price cap – measures that initially caused<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russias-oil-gas-western-sanctions-war-ukraine-price-cap-eu-2023-3"> Russia's oil and gas revenue to nearly slash in half</a> at the start of the year.But <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/vladimir-putin-russian-oil-price-cap-eu-ban-production-cut-2022-12">Putin has rebuffed those trade restrictions</a> – and Russia has developed a number of ways to evade western oil sanctions, experts say, which has helped prop up oil export profits over several months. That includes methods like <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-price-cap-loophole-shipping-india-crude-economy-ft-2023-8#:~:text=Russia%20could%20have%20made%20%241.2,at%20crimping%20Russia's%20war%20revenue.">inflating the shipping costs on its oil get around the price cap</a>, and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-india-russian-oil-crude-moscow-war-ukraine-volumes-kpler-2023-4">offloading more of its crude to allies like China and India</a>, which have gorged themselves on discounted Russian oil since the early days of the war.Economists are still warning of trouble ahead for Russia's overall economy, especially amid its costly "special military operation" in Ukraine. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-inflation-ruble-putin-moscow-interest-rates-ukraine-war-2023-9">Russian central bankers just hiked interest rates to 13%,</a> a sign that policymakers are scrambling to lower inflation and prop up the nation's weakening ruble.

Russia's energy trade is making a comeback amid soaring global oil prices

<ul><li>The strike has been called off following an agreement reached with the management of the companies.</li><li><keyword id="651724" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="clc" source="Orion">CLC</keyword> had further advised that the managements should consider the suggestions of the <keyword id="122605" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="associations" source="Orion">associations</keyword> positively.</li><li>The strike notice was given by Girish <keyword id="24716" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="khurana" source="Orion">Khurana</keyword>, National Convenor, JFTY protesting against the unilateral implementation of the EY recommendations.</li></ul> The unions in the government-owned general insurance companies and General Insurance Corporation of India Ltd (GIC Re) on Monday called off their January 4 strike, said an union leader. The strike has been called off following an agreement reached with the management of the companies at the conciliation meeting called by the Chief Labour Commissioner, Central. "Various arguments took place in the meeting from both sides and finally, the CLC advised the managements to give proper bilateral opportunity for discussion with the Associations within 15 days and take the suggestions," Trilok Singh, Convenor-North Zone, Joint Forum of Trade Unions and Association (JFTU), told IANS. He said the CLC had further advised that the managements should consider the suggestions of the associations positively. "Managements agreed to meet the Associations within 15 days for the same. In the light of these instructions from the CLC's office and the managements' decision, we have decided to defer the strike till further advices," Singh said. At the conciliation meeting, the management representative said since 2016 it has been a matter of existence for the insurers. They said even after infusion of capital by the government, the companies are struggling to survive. The companies have to maintain solvency ratio and for that, they have to cost effective. The representative of the Department of Financial Services also maintained that the insurers have to improve their performance. The strike notice was given by Girish Khurana, National Convenor, JFTY protesting against the unilateral implementation of the EY recommendations on rejigging the five reinsurers. The CLC had called the Chairman-cum-Managing Directors of the five companies, Joint Secretary, Department of Financial Services, and Khurana for a conciliation meeting. The unions have been demanding the copy of the EY report for a long time. The management had given them a copy of the power point presentation made to them about the EY report. "Bullet points contained in <keyword id="6678164" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="ppt" source="Orion">PPT</keyword> (powerpoint presentation) reveal no details and we are unable to submit our view-points and suggestions in the matter," Khurana said in a letter to <keyword id="14574026" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="suchita-gupta" source="Orion">Suchita Gupta</keyword>, <keyword id="15951458" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="chairperson-gipsa" source="Orion">Chairperson GIPSA</keyword> and Chairman-cum-Managing Director, <keyword id="15951459" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="national-insurance-earlier" source="Orion">National Insurance earlier</keyword>. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/delhiites-guzzle-over-1-crore-liquor-bottles-worth-218-crore-from-dec-24-31/articleshow/96698044.cms">Delhiites guzzle over 1 crore liquor bottles worth ₹218 crore from Dec 24-31</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/zomato-irctc-zee-entertainment-among-stocks-in-focus-on-tuesday/articleshow/96697684.cms">Sensex, Nifty50 likely to open in red amid weak global cues; Zomato, IRCTC, Zee Entertainment among stocks in focus</a>

PSU general insurance unions call off their Jan 4 strike

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's Urals blend is now trading well below the $60 price cap at just $37.80 a barrel, according to data from Argus Media.</li><li>That's less than half the international benchmark Brent crude, squeezing Russia's oil revenue.</li></ul>Russia's main oil product is now trading way below the G7's $60 price cap, as the heavily sanctioned nation only has a handful of buyers to keep up its crude oil trade.Urals grade, Russia's largest crude oil export, traded at its Baltic Sea port at just $37.80 a barrel on Friday, according to data from Argus Media.In addition to lagging below the price cap, that's less than half the price of international benchmark Brent crude, which was trading at about $80 a barrel on Monday.Western nations slapped the price cap on top of the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/eu-sanctions-russian-oil-price-cap-crude-price-outlook-exports-2022-12">European Union's ban of Russian oil</a> in December, part of the latest round of sanctions intended to crimp Moscow's war revenue.Europe was one of Russia's largest crude oil customers, and Russian oil suppliers are now unable to use Western shipping and insurance services unless they agree to abide by the price cap mechanism.It's been difficult for Russia to navigate those headwinds: the nation's<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-crude-oil-exports-war-revenue-eu-ban-price-cap-2023-1"> oil export revenue fell $15 million</a> in the last week of 2022, and there are just a few main buyers of Russian crude left, namely China, India, and Turkey, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-crude-oil-exports-war-revenue-eu-ban-price-cap-2023-1">Bloomberg reported</a>.Those customers have also been able to score steeper discounts on oil as Russia struggles to replace European oil sales. Russia had sold oil <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-sells-crude-to-india-under-g7-price-cap-breaking-vow-to-cut-off-abiding-countries-2022-12">below the price cap to India</a>, and at least one oil shipment was sold to <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-price-cap-espo-china-discount-crude-eu-ban-2022-12">China at $68 a barrel</a>, just above the price cap level.President Vladimir Putin has called the price cap "stupid" and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/putin-russia-western-sanctions-oil-price-cap-natural-gas-china-2022-12">emphasized the resilience</a> of Russia's economy, though its central bank has warned that the latest round of sanctions were new <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-central-bank-western-oil-price-cap-eu-ban-economy-2022-12">economic shocks to the nation.</a> The damage done by sanctions could even cause <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-could-become-failed-state-within-10-years-sanctions-survey-2023-1">Russia to become a failed state</a> or break up by 2033, according to a recent survey of experts.Russia has refused to formally abide by the price cap mechanism and threatened to retaliate against any country that enforces it, such as by <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-crude-oil-price-outlook-g7-price-cap-ukraine-war-2022-12">slashing its oil output by 700,000 barrels a day</a>. That, along with the 1 million barrel-a-day drop expected from the EU ban, could <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-2023-russia-crude-supply-eu-embargo-china-2023-1">cause oil prices to spike past $100</a> a barrel, UBS warned.

Russia's main oil product is trading way below the $60 price cap as just a handful of buyers keep up trade with the heavily sanctioned nation

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's leader, Xi Jinping, has made a power move timed with his visit to Russia. </li><li>He set up a new meeting of Central Asian countries this week, muscling in on Russia's backyard.</li></ul>China's leader, Xi Jinping, has called a meeting of former-Soviet Central Asian countries, in an audacious power play in Russia's backyard the week of his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.Xi invited the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to the first China-Central Asia summit on Wednesday, <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/china-central-asia-summit-chinas-xi-invites-ex-soviet-republics-of-central-asia-for-summit-3881073">t</a><a href="https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/china-central-asia-summit-chinas-xi-invites-ex-soviet-republics-of-central-asia-for-summit-3881073" target="_blank" rel="noopener">he AFP news agency reported</a>. It remains unclear whether Turkmenistan has been invited.The states are all former members of the Soviet Union, and Moscow has long regarded them as being in its sphere of influence after the Russian Empire conquered them in the 19th century.The move came as Xi was visiting Putin in Moscow as part of a three-day-summit that concluded Wednesday, in which the nations pledged to deepen and extend their cooperation — and Xi signaled that Russia would have continued Chinese backing in its invasion of Ukraine.Analysts say that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-meeting-with-putin-showed-china-dominance-over-russia-experts-2023-3?r=US&amp;IR=T">China has secured significant leverage over Russia in return</a> for its diplomatic and economic support, and that in calling the meeting of Central Asian nations it is seeking to exploit that advantage."I'm not sure this China initiate is greeted with enthusiasm in the Kremlin," tweeted Carl Bildt, the cochair of the European Council on Foreign Relations."Agree. i'm also not sure the Kremlin has much they can do about it," replied Ian Bremmer, a political scientist and the founder of the Eurasia Group.Russia, in launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, sought to regain its control over the former Soviet state, which in recent years sought closer ties with the West.But the invasion has stalled, amid steep military losses for Russia, and a knock-on effect has been that the former Soviet states in Central Asia have become increasingly open in their defiance of the Kremlin.In one striking example, <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/24/central-asia-drifts-out-of-russias-orbit-as-ukraine-war-rages-a78842" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kazakhstan's president</a>, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, declined to recognize the legitimacy claims by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine while sharing a stage with Putin at an economic forum in St. Petersburg.China in recent years has increased its <a href="https://www.diis.dk/en/research/china-leading-the-race-influence-in-central-asia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">economic and security ties with Central Asian nations,</a> which have abundant mineral resources and lie on ancient trade routes between east and west.

Xi snubbed Putin after their summit, calling a meeting of Central Asian countries as part of an audacious power play

<ul><li>While Covid-, conflict-, central banking- and China-led risks are well discussed, the fifth one, climate change, needs to come into sharp focus now. </li><li>The last <keyword id="6358021" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="budget" source="Orion">budget</keyword> conveyed a more serious intent to include the climate agenda in the budgetary process and facilitate green transition. </li><li>While the government cannot control the physical climate risks to the sector, it can introduce policies that speed up other efficiency improvements. </li></ul>There has been a massive shift in the nature of global risks over the past two years. Broadly, these can be categorised into four Cs — Covid-19-led; conflict-led; central bank action-led; and China slowdown/recovery-led. A fifth C, which has always been present but started receiving attention only recently, is climate change. Among the risks mentioned, climate risk remains the only constant, which must be acted upon quickly now. The Union Budget is a good platform for the government to make its intent loud and clear, on the climate agenda. But budget and climate action are two words rarely spoken in the same breath. That has changed somewhat in recent years, though, but there is a lot more ground to cover. The last few budgets had a peppered approach towards combating climate risk. But the last budget conveyed a more serious intent to include the climate agenda in the budgetary process and facilitate green transition in the country. The budget promised action to facilitate, inter alia, wider adoption of solar power, energy conservation and financing via green bonds. In the Finance Minister’s words, “The risks of climate change are the strongest externalities that affect India and other countries.” There is, therefore, hope that the upcoming budget systematically factors in the two risks often associated with climate change — physical and transition. Physical risks include the impact of rising sea levels and weather disruptions such as heatwaves, floods, storms and wildfires on economic and financial parameters. These can have severe and sudden consequences, often diverting policymakers’ attention towards mitigating the immediate damage caused by these risks. India remains one of the most vulnerable countries to climate-change risks, given the exposure to rain-fed agriculture for providing incomes to large sections of the population. High volatility in food prices every year due to weather disruptions has also often challenged monetary policy’s role in controlling inflation. Climate risk also hurts the fiscal math. For instance, enhancing social-safety nets via subsidies and employment programmes becomes necessary in a year when weather disruptions dent income and purchasing power of the weaker sections of the society. This can put the annual fiscal math off the track or divert spending away from capex. Climate change is primarily a fiscal challenge for the governments. At the COP27 climate summit in November 2022, India submitted its long-term low-carbon development strategy that aims at expanding renewables use, strengthening energy-efficiency measures, rationalising fossil-fuel resource utilisation and ensuring optimum energy mix, while following on a development-focused transition. The country now needs to move faster towards these targets. Inclusion of the climate agenda in budget-making can help systematise it and support the process. While the government cannot control the physical climate risks to the sector, it can introduce policies that speed up other efficiency improvements, such as reducing crop wastage, promoting investment in irrigation, and setting up cold-storage and warehousing facilities. The second type, transition risks are caused by the impact of policy, regulatory and legal actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to new technologies, on economic and financial parameters. These include policies that influence trade, push production towards green transition and bring about a shift in consumer preferences. While these facilitate a move towards an environmentally sustainable economy, in the short run, they come as disruptions and entail a cost. Here, government intervention in the form of budgetary allocations that subsidise and over time penalise failure towards green transition, will be crucial. The climate agenda will require active participation by the private sector. The long-term trends on rainfall, heatwaves and other extreme events call for immediate action. Meanwhile, the unevenness or lack of predictability of weather conditions highlights the need for the budget to factor in damages and additional costs to counter the impact of weather disruptions. In the short term, therefore, the Indian government’s climate-action response should also focus on mitigating risks to the agriculture sector, while also continuing to encourage the move towards cleaner technologies. In addition, given its inflation-targeting mandate, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India will also have to take heed of the increasing role of climate change-led weather disturbances in influencing consumer price inflation. As inflation faces upside risks and higher volatility due to climate change, there is a greater need to maintain a credible monetary policy, to keep inflation expectations in check. Policymakers not only need to work together to reduce the long-term effects of climate change, but also respond to the short-term effects of climate change on the economy. (The author is Principal Economist, CRISIL Limited. Views are personal.)

Budgeting for the fifth C

New Delhi, Jan 8 () Banking services were impacted on Wednesday as employees went on a nationwide strike called by 10 central trade unions to protest against the government's "anti-people" policies.
 Branch activities including cash withdrawal deposit in public sector banks in many places across the country have been affected due to the strike.
 Most of the lenders had informed their customers in advance about the strike call given by All India Bank Employees Association (AIBEA), All India Bank Officers' Association (AIBOA), BEFI, INBEF, INBOC and Bank Karmachari Sena Mahasangh (BKSM), and its impact on banking services.
 Bank employees have extended support to the nationwide strike call given by 10 central trade unions, AIBEA general Secretary C H Venkatachalam told .
 "We have been opposing government policies on bank merger, privatisation, fee hike and other wage-related issues," he said.
 All India Reserve Bank Employees Association (AIRBEA) and All India Reserve Bank Workers Federation (AIRBWF) and some insurance unions have also extended support to the strike.
 Trade unions INTUC, AITUC, HMS, CITU, AIUTUC, TUCC, SEWA, AICCTU, LPF, UTUC along with various sectoral independent federations and associations had adopted a declaration in September last year to go on the nationwide strike on January 8.
 The trade unions have claimed around 25 crore people are participating in the strike to protest against the government's "anti-people" policies. DP ANS
ANS

Banking services impacted due to nationwide trade union strike

New Delhi, Jan 3 () A day after meeting the labour minister, 10 central trade unions on Friday said they will go ahead with their general strike or 'Bharat Bandh' on January 8 "to protest against anti-labour policies" of the government.
 "The Central Trade Unions conveyed their firm resolve after the meeting called by Union Labour Minister (on Thursday). The general strike on January 8, 2020 stands," a joint statement issued by the 10 central trade unions said.
 At the meeting, the minister told the unions that the government has been taking all steps for the welfare of workers and legislations on Labour Codes are a part of that, the statement said.
 However, the unions -- which included AITUC, HMS, CITU, AIUTUC, SEWA, AICCTU, LPF and UTUC -- maintained that the Labour Codes are designed to impose slavery on the workers.
 None of the issues which have been continuously raised by the central trade unions, including unemployment, minimum wages, social security and 14-point charter of demands, were addressed by the minister, it said.
 The government has also not called the tripartite Indian Labour Conference after 2015, it added.
 The united platform of trade unions also raised the issue of ignoring INTUC (Indian National Trade Union Congress), which they said was a political move to create rivalries between the bodies.
 The issues facing auto sector workers, particularly those employed by Honda in Gurgaon, were also raised before the minister.
 Against such anti-labour policies of the government, the central trade unions have decided to go ahead with the country-wide general strike on January 8, the statement said. KKS ABM

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