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<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="12069433" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ups" source="Orion">UPS</keyword> reported record profitability in the fourth quarter of 2021 on Tuesday.</li><li>The results validate CEO Carol Tomé's "better, not bigger" strategy. </li></ul><p>UPS stock jumped 15% by noon Tuesday after CEO Carol Tomé reported another quarter of results that investors saw as a validation of her <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ups-ceo-carol-tome-strategy-profits-over-package-volume-2021-2">"better, not bigger" strategy. </a></p><p>Tomé's January call is arguably the most important of the year, as it includes performance during the holiday shipping season. The CEO's first peak season in 2020 was an anomaly for pandemic-related reasons. So 2021 was her chance to prove the impact of her strategy, including only taking packages with sufficient profit margins and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/carol-tome-reform-ups-ecommerce-2021-6">focusing the company's many technology projects</a>.</p><p>This peak season presented <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ups-ceo-carol-tome-strategy-profits-over-package-volume-2021-2">different challenges than Tomé's first</a>. Holiday <keyword id="12087688" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="package" source="Orion">package</keyword> volume came and tapered off early, meaning the company had to quickly reduce capacity and cut cost when the volume no longer matched. The company reduced seasonal staff early and returned rental vehicles, CFO Brian Newman said. </p><p>UPS consolidated revenue for the fourth quarter was up 11.5% year over year and moved up it's long-term revenue targets by a full year. Revenue per package was up 10.5% in the US. Tomé said the company reported the highest operating profit in its history — up 37.7% since 2020. </p><p>"Inside our better, not bigger framework, we are maniacal about controlling what we can control," Tomé said. </p><p>But a clock is ticking away in the background. The company's contract with the International Brotherhood of <keyword id="13090103" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="teamsters" source="Orion">Teamsters</keyword> is up in 2023, and negotiations will begin this year to draft a new agreement for the company's 260,000 drivers. </p><p>Tomé's strategy has included leaning into some of the more controversial elements of the last <keyword id="11897816" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="union" source="Orion">union</keyword> contract, negotiated by her predecessor. Drivers and union leaders have expressed dissatisfaction with how UPS <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/weekend-operations-are-key-to-ups-success-2021-12">staffs its relatively new Saturday service</a> and controversial seasonal hires, including workers who <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tensions-rise-at-ups-over-drivers-who-deliver-using-their-own-cars-2021-6">deliver packages in their own cars</a>. </p><p>In October, Tomé told analysts she wants to conduct negotiations "different than we've done in the past," according to a transcript from Sentieo. "We want a win-win-win at the end of the day, and we're looking at this through the lens of a strategy rather than just a negotiation," she said. </p><p>At the same time, new Teamsters President-elect Sean <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-12/teamsters-union-prepares-to-take-on-ups-amazon-amzn-over-labor-issues?sref=LspfQlRv">O'Brien</a> takes office in March. He <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-12/teamsters-union-prepares-to-take-on-ups-amazon-amzn-over-labor-issues?sref=LspfQlRv">told Bloomberg</a> his plan to unionize Amazon workers involves making an example out of UPS by landing its workers a better contract.</p><p>Go deep on the issues at the heart of the negotiations, and the fast-growing new slate of competitors for the delivery giant, with these stories. </p><h2>'Better, not bigger' pleases the street</h2><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ups-ceo-carol-tome-ecommerce-strategy-test-2021-7">Carol Tomé was hired to whip UPS into shape, but some insiders worry she's killing what made the company great in the first place</a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ups-delivery-cost-charges-rural-amazon-competition-2021-12">UPS is hiking some rural delivery surcharges by as much 200% — leaving the countryside ripe for an Amazon takeover</a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ups-processing-record-number-of-shipping-returns-after-holidays-2022-1">UPS says it's processing a record number of returns as 1 in 4 Americans plan to ship stuff back to sellers after the holidays</a></p><h2>Union negotiations loom </h2><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/weekend-operations-are-key-to-ups-success-2021-12">UPS is facing down a fight with its drivers' union over the weekend delivery it needs to compete with Amazon and FedEx</a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tensions-rise-at-ups-over-drivers-who-deliver-using-their-own-cars-2021-6">Tensions at UPS are brewing between leadership and unionized drivers as the new CEO doubles down on drivers who make deliveries in their own cars</a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ups-is-getting-into-same-day-delivery-with-roadie-2021-9">UPS dives into same-day delivery by buying crowdsourced delivery company Roadie</a></p><h2>UPS faces new rivals </h2><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-logistics-bigger-fedex-ups-analysis-morgan-stanley-2021-11">Amazon will soon be the biggest US package carrier. Here's what that means for UPS and FedEx, according to Morgan Stanley.</a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/doordash-moves-in-on-ups-and-fedex-with-retail-delivery-2022-1">DoorDash's latest push for delivery dominance pits it against UPS and FedEx</a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gig-economy-delivery-doordash-shipt-threaten-ups-and-fedex-2021-4">The biggest threat to UPS and FedEx isn't Amazon. It's the gig economy.</a></p>

UPS CEO Carol Tomé aced the crucial holiday delivery test &mdash; but an even bigger challenge is coming her way

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="47560" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="ups">UPS</keyword> is in the midst of a business overhaul at the hands of CEO Carol Tomé.</li><li>The company seeks to boost profitability by reining in spending and carefully choosing packages.</li><li>Demand for faster and faster delivery could put pressure on UPS to move into unfamiliar territory. </li></ul><p>Carol Tomé is heading into her second peak shipping season as CEO of UPS. The continuation of the pandemic and surge of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-covid-economy-consumer-behavior-lockdown-bank-of-america-2021-7?nr_email_referer=1&amp;utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=Business_Insider_select&amp;pt=385758&amp;ct=Sailthru_BI_Newsletters&amp;mt=8&amp;utm_campaign=Insider%20Select%202021-07-24&amp;utm_term=INSIDER%20SELECT%20-%20ENGAGED%=INSIDER%20SELECT%20-%20ENGAGED%">the Delta variant have already ensured</a> that this one, like Tomé's first, won't be anywhere near normal. What has changed is UPS itself.</p><p>After more than a year in the top spot, Tomé has seen her business strategies and management style start to take hold. Preaching "better, not bigger," she's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ups-ceo-carol-tome-strategy-profits-over-package-volume-2021-2">carefully choosing customers</a> whose business benefits UPS the most. She's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tensions-rise-at-ups-over-drivers-who-deliver-using-their-own-cars-2021-6">embracing controversial labor strategies</a> that fit closer to the rest of the gig-economy-obsessed delivery world rather than UPS's 114-year-old history. She's keeping a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/carol-tome-reform-ups-ecommerce-2021-6">laser focus on UPS's spending. </a></p><p>More than 2020, the 2021 holiday shopping season will test whether Tomé's UPS can keep up its profitability push while maintaining it's place near the top of the e-commerce delivery pyramid. Catch up on the elements of that effort with these stories. </p><h2>Tomé takes the reigns </h2><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/carol-tome-reform-ups-ecommerce-2021-6"><strong>Carol Tomé was hired to whip UPS into shape, but some insiders worry she's killing what made the company great in the first place</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ups-ceo-carol-tome-strategy-profits-over-package-volume-2021-2"><strong>Why UPS' new CEO is building her strategy around leaving some packages behind</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tensions-rise-at-ups-over-drivers-who-deliver-using-their-own-cars-2021-6"><strong>Tensions at UPS are brewing between leadership and unionized drivers as the new CEO doubles down on drivers who make deliveries in their own cars</strong></a></p><h2>UPS faces its rivals </h2><p><strong><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gig-economy-delivery-doordash-shipt-threaten-ups-and-fedex-2021-4">The biggest threat to UPS and FedEx isn't Amazon. It's the gig economy.</a></strong></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ups-testing-considering-same-day-delivery-amazon-startups-ground-2021-7"><strong>UPS wants to bring the fight to Amazon by offering same-day delivery. Experts share just how hellishly complex that task could be.</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ups-exploring-same-day-delivery-to-compete-with-gig-economy-2021-6"><strong>UPS is quietly testing same-day delivery services to compete with gig economy players like Instacart and Shipt</strong></a></p><p><strong><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ups-buys-beta-evtols-kyle-clark">UPS is splashing out for 10 futuristic electric aircraft that could revolutionize package delivery. Here's how the investment could give the company a competitive leg up.</a></strong></p><h2>The pandemic ushered in a new normal for parcel carriers</h2><p><strong><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ups-fedex-dhl-logistics-compensate-for-labor-crunch-2021-7">UPS, FedEx, and DHL are already planning for a frantic holiday season without enough workers by jacking up fees, giving raises, and buying robots</a></strong></p>

UPS is at a crucial point in its history. Here's how it got here - and where it might be going.

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/j_benson/3822287892/in/photolist-fxP2xX-cva2FJ-ktD9Fz-bo1p2k-9aAZWW-Lttyu-7uSiL4-9w8nLY-6AUYNG-cihAiA-7sqXn2-9WobgG-5dci8v-7UPVbK-ahAybu-bJG5Pi-hqEmwY-hqEmx9-5SHesX-6PLe2o-hqEmvL-4w7rTC-8LHebq-8HpBgY-dKkfqh-fCQFWa-4rKda-hHopMr-54n4TV-5dgGsJ-WGqJu-4mUB7D-2DeBC-4nZUCr-CxQjX-77Eqcd-fqyZdW-79JT19-6GfdjG-dKcsKw-5Vqkdm-akQfJA-97bW65-4q4aHf-hkQLqF-bZwkbN-9K2o1A-4f88EG-5aik8H-e1MuEL/">John Benson/flickr</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div><a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/hd-Quote">Home Depot</a>, America's largest home-improvement store, is counting on millennials to extend the US housing recovery.</p><p>The US homeownership rate for people under 35 still trails other age groups for <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/millennial-homeownership-lower-2017-6">reasons</a> including delayed marriage and record student debt. According to the Census Bureau, 35.3% of people in this age bracket owned homes in the second quarter, up from 34.1% a year ago.  </p><p>Home Depot noticed this uptick in the increase of first-time homebuyers that visited its stores for supplies. Carol Tome, Home Depot's chief financial officer, said the company served 424,000 first-time homebuyers in the second quarter, the highest since 2005 and an 11% increase from a year ago. This group made up 38% of all buyers, Tome told analysts during the quarterly earnings call on Tuesday.</p><p>She continued: </p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">"So that is good news. Why? Because first-time homebuyers tend to buy homes that need repair and remodel ... we anticipated this happening with millennials coming into an age where they start to form families, children, or pets or whatever their family unit might look like. They're moving into homes, which bodes very well for us and to your point, it extends the recovery."</p><p>Higher home ownership was just one reason why Home Depot reported another <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/home-depot-q2-2018-earnings-2017-8">strong quarter</a>. Home Depot also benefited from rising home prices caused by a shortage of non-luxury houses relative to the demand.</p><p>Tome's comments are "consistent with our view that pent up entry-level demand along with moderately increasing supply should provide for housing expansion over the next several years," said Susan Maklari and Christie Fredericks, analysts at Credit Suisse, in a note Wednesday.</p><p>"Low levels of for-sale inventory are creating an environment for accelerated home price appreciation, likely to spur incremental repair and remodel activity going forward," the note added.</p><p>Home Depot stands to continue benefitting from rising home prices and greater homeownership. But for more millennials to find houses they can afford, construction needs to pick up. </p><p>"As more and more millennials age into household formation, the pace of housing starts will need to not only meet but exceed the growth in new households so that the housing inventory shortage doesn't increase further," said Mark Fleming, the chief economist at First American, in a note on Wednesday.</p><p>Builders have cited land shortages and rising building-material costs as reasons for the supply shortage.</p><p>"More home building is needed, otherwise nominal home prices will only go one way up," Fleming said.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-bottom-line-stock-market-records-apple-tesla-tech-earnings-jim-glassman-economy-2017-8">THE BOTTOM LINE: New record highs for stocks and a deep dive into Apple's iPhone</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

HOME DEPOT: Millennials are piling back into the housing market, and it's great for us

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Scott Olson/Getty</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>"There's a way to go" before <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/HD-Quote">Home Depot</a> becomes concerned about the US housing market, according to Carol Tome, the company's chief financial officer.</p><p>The market's resurgence after its crash a decade ago has boosted not just the economy, but the home-improvement retailer's earnings. On Tuesday, Home Depot reported an 18% year-on-year <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/home-depot-q4-2016-earnings-2017-2">rise in fourth-quarter net earnings</a> to $1.74 billion, topping analysts' forecasts. </p><p>Analysts are meanwhile watching for the impact of the post-election rise in mortgage rates along with other borrowing costs. On Tuesday, t<span>he Bankrate.com 30-year fixed national average mortgage rate was 4.01%, up from 3.53% on election day according to Bloomberg.</span></p><p>A Wolfe Research analyst asked Home Depot's executives on the earnings call what level of rates would become would be a concern.</p><p>"Our analysis would show that for every 25-basis point increase in mortgage rates, it costs the homeowner who's applied for a mortgage $40 more per month," Tome said. </p><p>"With the median home price in the country of $250,000, mortgage rates could go up to 7%-ish before the affordability index would fall at 100 or below" Tome said. "So there's a way to go before we'd be concerned." </p><p>At 100, the National Association of Realtors' affordability index shows that a family earning the median income has just enough to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. The latest reading on the <a href="https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/reports/2016/embargoes/2016-q4-hai/hai-12-2016-housing-affordability-index-2017-02-09.pdf">index</a> was 162.8 in December. </p><p>"Mortgage rates stand today at 4.2%, 4.3%, something like that," Tome said. "The historical mean is 5.8%. So even if you return to the mean, you're still below that inflection point." </p><p>Although the affordability index is still above 100, tight housing inventory suggest that home prices may rise to more unaffordable levels for some buyers. </p><p>"The lack of homes for sale is causing a '<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-housing-market-is-trapped-2016-6">matching-trap'</a> in which current homeowners are reluctant to sell because of concern over the ability to find a home to buy and the likelihood that their new mortgage will have a higher rate than their existing mortgage," said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, in a note Tuesday. </p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/navy-seal-explains-tips-attacked-by-dog-2017-2">A Navy SEAL explains what to do if you're attacked by a dog</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="lhbDFyOTE6OzheGWIb596U_-Bnp_bK7z" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

Here's when Home Depot will start getting worried about the US housing market

<p><strong><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Business Insider/Jessica Tyler</span></p><p class="caption">Home Depot promises to beat competitor prices by 10% in stores.</p></div><p></p></div></div></strong></p><ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/amazon">Amazon</a> and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/home-depot">Home Depot</a> both sell everything you'd need to complete your home-improvement projects.</strong></li><li><strong>We compared prices on best-selling home-improvement products from both sites to see which had the better deals. We found it varied by product. </strong></li><li><strong>But even in cases where Amazon had a lower price, Home Depot has a price-match policy that guarantees it would offer the better deal.</strong></li></ul><p>When you're doing your shopping for a big home-improvement project, stores like <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/hd-stock">Home Depot</a> or <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/lowes">Lowe's</a> typically come to mind. But <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amzn-stock">Amazon</a> sells anything you might need for home improvement, too - often at lower prices. </p><p>Home Depot CFO Carol Tome <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/story/14494141/1/home-depot-cfo-talks-amazon-threat.html">recently talked to The Street</a> about the big advantage the store has over Amazon: it allows customers to try products and get advice from experts before they buy. </p><p><span>"If your bathroom is leaking water, that's a very different need than if you are trying to match a sweater to your eye color," she said. </span></p><p><span>She added: "</span><span>We are not an item retailer. We are a project retailer." </span></p><p>Amazon has a huge selection of home-improvement products, including many of the exact products that are available at Home Depot. And like in most departments, Amazon's home-improvement prices are competitive.</p><p>To see which of the two stores had lower prices on home-improvement products, we looked at the prices of items listed as best-sellers or editors' picks on Amazon, and then compared the prices to the same products on Home Depot's website.</p><p>Though Amazon had lower prices on more products than Home Depot, Home Depot has a price-match policy that makes it hard to beat. If you shop in-store, Home Depot will match its competitors' prices, plus an additional 10%  discount if you bring in proof of a lower price. Though online purchases are not eligible for the 10% guarantee, they are still eligible for price match if the competitors' lower-priced item is available to be shipped to the customer's location. </p><p>Keep reading to see how the prices compare at Amazon and Home Depot: </p><p class="tagline"><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/intelligence/next-frontier-in-customer-relations?IR=T&amp;utm_source=businessinsider&amp;utm_medium=ctgr&amp;utm_term=ctgr_leadgen&amp;utm_content=mobile_ctgr_leadgen&amp;utm_campaign=mobile_ctgr_leadgen_messaging-apps-crm"></a></p>

We compared prices on best-selling items at Amazon and Home Depot to see who has the best deals on tools and paint - here's the verdict

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Brent Clark/AP Images</span></p><p class="caption">"As a last result, they'll pass along cost increases in the form of higher prices to customers," managing director of equity research at Wedbush Securities Seth Basham told Business Insider.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul class="summary-list"><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/home-depot" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Home Depot</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/lowes" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lowe's</a> will likely get pummeled if US President Donald Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods get <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-china-trade-war-consumer-goods-2018-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hiked</a> from 10% to 25% at the start of 2019.</li><li>Seth Basham, the managing director of equity research at Wedbush Securities, told Business Insider that both retailers bear "significant exposure" to the tariffs.</li><li>The US-China trade war will also likely leave consumers feeling the pinch, potentially causing homeowners to put off renovation projects.</li></ul><p><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/hd-stock" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Home Depot</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/low-stock" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lowe's</a> are in for a world of hurt if the US-China trade war escalates.</p><p>Business Insider recently spoke to Seth Basham, the managing director of equity research at Wedbush Securities, about how US President Donald Trump's tariffs stand to impact the home-improvement powerhouses.</p><p>Back in September, Home Depot CFO Carol Tome told <a href="http://fortune.com/2018/09/05/trump-trade-war-american-firms-hit-by-tariffs/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fortune</a> that the question of whether the tariffs would jump from $34 billion to $200 billion in products caused "a lot of volatility here in tariff world." Tariffs did ultimately jump to the $200 billion mark later that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-china-trade-war-tariff-chinese-goods-2018-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">month</a>.</p><p>Basham said he's of the opinion that the tariff rate will likely <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-china-trade-war-consumer-goods-2018-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">jump</a> from 10% to 25% in early 2019, and that they could end up encapsulating $500 billion worth of Chinese goods.</p><p>And that's not good news for Home Depot or Lowe's.</p><p>"The bottom line is they are going to have trouble passing through all of the cost increases they incur," Basham said.</p><p>Neither Home Depot nor Lowe's responded to Business Insider's request for comment. Basham said the result of tariff-driven costs could cause margin pressure or sales pressure for the companies, as they both currently have "significant exposure" to the tariffs.</p><p><em><strong>Read more</strong>: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/home-depot-lowes-housing-market-2018-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Americans are pumping the brakes on home remodeling, and that might spell bad news for Home Depot and Lowe's</a></em></p><p>He estimated that around 50% to 60% of the goods that the retailers import from China are on the tariff list. That means that 15% to 20% of their sales could be affected, according to his estimates. </p><p>"They have a few mitigation strategies that they're working through," Basham said. "One is to go back to their vendors in China and say, 'Help us by giving us lower prices to off-set some of the tariffs.'"</p><p>According to Basham, other options would include seeking suppliers outside of China or renegotiating supplier contracts based on the change to the US dollar.</p><p>"As a last result, they'll pass along cost increases in the form of higher prices to customers," Basham said.</p><p>But it's a two-way street when it comes to the tariffs' impact on consumers and retailers. Basham said that the havoc wreaked on consumer spending power and the economy could also hurt Home Depot and Lowe's.</p><p>"Consumers might pull back on doing discretionary home-improvement projects," he said. "Because of the elasticity of demand associated with half the merchandise they sell, which I consider to be discretionary, you'll probably lose some sales as a result."</p><p class="tagline"><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intelligence/future-of-retail-ai?IR=T&amp;utm_source=businessinsider&amp;utm_medium=ctgr&amp;utm_term=ctgr_leadgen&amp;utm_content=ecommerce_ctgr_leadgen&amp;utm_campaign=ecommerce_ctgr_leadgen_future-of-retail-ai"></a></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-home-development-store-coming-home-depot-tree-house-lowes-retail-2017-7">This new solar-powered home development store is coming after Home Depot</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

A financial analyst breaks down why Trump's tariffs could be excruciating for Home Depot and Lowe's

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Rumors around a <keyword id="6354484" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Donald-Trump">Donald Trump</keyword> presidential <keyword id="25805" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Memoir">memoir</keyword>, and which publishing house will buy it, are swirling.</li><li>But many workers in publishing hope such a book won't be acquired.</li><li>We spoke with 10 publishing workers, from lower-level employees to industry veterans, to understand <strong>how a Trump book would play out internally, and how its profits would likely be too hard to turn down</strong>.</li><li>Lower-level employees often have no say in the books they work on, and those we spoke to worry about having to work on a book from Trump because of the platform it could give to what they consider "harmful" views.</li><li>Publishing has dealt with its own reckoning this year as a largely white and progressive industry that often relies on conservative best-sellers, with the entry-level employees who do the majority of promotion among its most diverse and progressive.</li></ul><p>A presidential memoir has the <keyword id="619691" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Publishing-industry">publishing industry</keyword> abuzz, and it's not former President Barack Obama's hefty new tome.</p><p>The Washington Post reported that President Donald Trump is exploring writing a "<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-2024-rematch/2020/11/21/58ce87ac-2a8d-11eb-8fa2-06e7cbb145c0_story.html">score-settling memoir"</a> once he departs office, following the typical postpresidential route of selling an extremely well-compensated book.</p><p>There's certainly precedent for books in the Trump pantheon; he's already had his name on <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Donald-J.-Trump/e/B001H6O8M2%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share">a suite of books</a>, and the marketplace for Trump tell-alls and inner circle books <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/31/books/trump-books.html">has been booming</a>.</p><p>His son, Donald Trump Jr., topped the bestseller list (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/21/books/donald-trump-jr-triggered-sales.html">with some caveats</a>) with his 2019 book "<a href="https://www.centerstreet.com/titles/donald-trump/triggered/9781546086024/">Triggered,</a>" published by conservative Hachette imprint Center Street. Trump Jr. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/books/donald-trump-jr-liberal-privilege.html">self-published his most recent book</a>.</p><p>But, while the president-to-presidential-memoir pipeline is a tradition, Trump is no typical president.</p><p>During his time in office, Trump emboldened groups <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/proud-boys-respond-to-trumps-comment-in-presidential-debate-2020-9">like the Proud Boys.</a> And in the aftermath of the election, he's repeatedly and falsely claimed that he "won," alleging widespread voting fraud without evidence. </p><p>Presidential memoirs are often a huge boon for publishers, and the major publishing houses — Penguin Random House, Hachette, HarperCollins, Macmillan, and Simon &amp; Schuster — <a href="https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/publisher-news/article/84900-presidential-memoirs-are-big-business-will-anyone-buy-trump-s.html">often snap up presidential memoirs</a>. To acquire one is often a "career high" for publishers and editors, <a href="https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/publisher-news/article/84900-presidential-memoirs-are-big-business-will-anyone-buy-trump-s.html">according to Publishers Weekly</a>. Obama's memoir <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/barack-obama-promised-land-presidential-memoir-book-record-sales-2020-11">just broke first-day-sales records</a>, selling 890,000 copies. He and Michelle struck a <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/2017/3/2/14779892/barack-michelle-obama-65-million-book-deal-penguin-random-house">joint book deal in 2017 for $65 million</a>.</p><p>The historically <a href="https://publishingperspectives.com/2011/11/is-publishing-too-new-york-centric/">New York-centric</a> publishing business is full of workers who lean left politically, but the "best-kept secret in publishing is that so much of the industry is supported by conservative authors," an editor at a Big Five publishing house told Business Insider.</p><p>And while Trump could decide to self-publish, as his son recently did, precedent suggests one of the "Big Five" will bag a book deal with him, putting them on a collision course with their New York-based, left-leaning staff. That "Big Five" looks set to constrict into a Big Four, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/25/books/simon-schuster-penguin-random-house.html">as the owner of Penguin Random House has agreed to acquire Simon &amp; Schuster</a>.</p><p>Business Insider spoke with 10 publishing workers and industry veterans about the brewing tensions over Trump's potential memoir. All the lower-level workers spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing fears over retribution in a competitive and low-paid industry. Their identities are known to Business Insider.</p><p>A potential Trump memoir poses a big reward to whoever publishes it, along with a potentially large risk, executives and agents said.</p><p>The White House declined a request to comment on the record.</p><h2>Presidential memoirs are a big business</h2><p>The market for political books has been especially strong in 2020. The <a href="https://www.amazon.com/bestsellers/2020/books">bestselling book on Amazon</a> for the year is Mary Trump's tell-all; Barack Obama's newly released memoir comes in at fifth, and John Bolton's look inside the White House comes in at eighth. Other top sellers include books by prominent conservatives, such as Candace Owens' "Blackout," Sean Hannity's "Live Free or Die," and Sarah Huckabee Sanders' "Speaking for Myself."</p><p>Then there's Donald Trump. The president seems especially well positioned to see strong demand for a memoir, given more than 73 million Americans voted for him in the election, and his raucous rallies have been a recurring theme for the past four years plus. </p><p>Dana Canedy, the publisher and senior vice president of Simon &amp; Schuster, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/18/books/trump-memoir-publishers.html">told The New York Times</a> that she would "take a meeting on the book."</p><p>Given the largely progressive leanings of lower-level workers in publishing, though, the Trump-book scenario could mean a left-wing army of assistants, interns, and editors would be selling the book, sending out the emails, and writing the catalogue copy. </p><p>Overwhelmingly, the publishing rank and file said they hoped a Trump memoir would not get published, citing the likely toxic nature of the content. </p><p>Some of the lower-level workers we spoke to said they'd try to push back if their publisher took the book; others said they would fear speaking up, but would try to opt out of promoting it.</p><div type="image" title="donald trump art of the deal" height="450" width="600" msid="79515991" hostid="261"></div><h2>While working on books they worry are harmful, publishing employees fear for their jobs</h2><p>"This has been a recurring theme for as long as I've worked in books," one worker at Macmillan told Business Insider, saying that at a previous publishing job it felt "terrible" to sell books from conservative pundits.</p><p>"Nobody ever really asks in the room, 'Is this a good idea?'" the worker said. "Because the answer is always going to be yes from the publisher side, because they're major cash cows."</p><p>A worker at Penguin Random House said that acquiring and working on these books was a "big sticking point" for employees, but that hasn't inhibited publishers from buying them, at least in their experience. That worker said they constantly hear from higher-ups about the need to publish "both sides." If a publishing house is going to acquire the Obama memoirs, for instance, those should be balanced out so that it's not just a "left" publisher.</p><p>But, the Penguin worker argued, when "you decide to publish books from people who lied and did irreparable harm to our country," it makes the publisher complicit in those acts, and that's different from merely nodding to both sides.</p><p>There are other power dynamics at work besides partisanship. Publishing is a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/careers/2016/feb/15/by-the-book-six-ways-to-break-into-publishing">notoriously competitive industry</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/2020/6/17/21285316/publishing-paid-me-diversity-black-authors-systemic-bias">with low-paying entry-level roles</a>. The Penguin employee said that assistant workers who would be assigned to a high-paying Trump book <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1p9y99EpfTDKZBi6FqPrFg9jvPcZObTTjY8LpkU2-1SI/htmlview?urp=gmail_link#gid=17647610">might be making a salary somewhere in the $30,000 range</a> and may have been in a lower-level job for years.</p><p>Like <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ceo-diversity-action-plans-pfizer-carmax-hp-tiktok-tapestry-2020-6">many other industries</a>, publishing faced a reckoning this year. In June, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/publishing-workers-calling-out-from-work-for-day-of-action-2020-6">workers called out from work for a "day of action"</a> in solidarity with protests over racial equity and police brutality. The publishing industry <a href="https://blog.leeandlow.com/2020/01/28/2019diversitybaselinesurvey/">belatedly began to confront its lack of diversity.</a></p><p>A 2019 survey from Lee &amp; Low Books found that the industry was 75% white. And entry-level workers — the ones who have the least control over the work they're assigned but are among the most involved in pushing books on a daily basis — were the most diverse group in terms of race, sexual orientation, and disability status.</p><p>The Macmillan employee said that with the "many issues of equity and access" in publishing, it's disheartening to see major houses consider buying books from figures like Trump<strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/10/30/929165869/agencies-contractors-suspend-diversity-training-to-avoid-violating-trump-order">who issued an executive order against some diversity training</a>. But lower-level employees risk losing their positions or moving up if they push back on books.</p><p>The Penguin employee said they'd previously received pushback for speaking out against titles they disagree with. "If you lose your job in publishing, there are 25 people waiting at the door to take your spot," they said.</p><p><a href="https://mckinnonliterary.com/agents">Tanya McKinnon</a>, an agent, emphasized that publishing was a business, but there's context to consider.</p><p>"Certainly all of the major houses are bottom-line-driven, and that means that they have books by people that we are not necessarily ideologically aligned with," she said. "In a world that values facts and truth, I think that creates the context for robust debate."</p><p>But, in a world where truth is "maligned," she said, "it becomes a much more dangerous proposition in terms of how some voices are elevated above others."</p><div type="image" title="Milo Yiannopoulos" height="3456" width="4608" msid="79515993" hostid="261"></div><h2>An industry that's faced its share of reckonings</h2><p>Even before the protests this summer, publishing workers used collective action to push back on more controversial and damaging books. In 2017, employees and authors spoke out against Simon &amp; Schuster publishing a book by right-wing commentator Milo Yiannopoulos.</p><p>The book was <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/milo-yiannopoulos-book-deal-canceled-2017-2">ultimately canceled</a> after positive remarks Yiannopoulos made about sex between "younger boys" and grown men were widely circulated.</p><p>In March, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hachette-workers-protest-publishing-woody-allen-memoir-walkout-2020-3">Hachette Book Group canceled Woody Allen's memoir</a> after an unprecedented walkout by employees. That book ended up getting published by Skyhorse Publishing, which several publishing workers cited as a possible home for a Trump memoir.</p><p>Tony Lyons, the president and publisher of Skyhorse, said in a statement to Business Insider that the house "believes in publishing stories by important political figures, regardless of whether they are Democrats, Republicans, or third-party candidates. We often publish books on both sides of an issue, with starkly opposing points of view."</p><p>Skyhorse believes in freedom of speech and taking "a strong stance against cancel culture," he said, adding that as a small, privately owned publisher, it can make creative offers that can be more lucrative for authors than the big corporate publishers can afford to make. Simon &amp; Schuster declined to comment.</p><p>Several publishing workers indicated that they anticipated there would be some form of collective action if the Trump memoir was acquired. But it's obviously unclear what effect, if any, that would have.</p><p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2015/01/22/meet-the-woman-who-turns-your-favorite-memes-into-published-real-world-celebrities/">Kate McKean</a>, vice president at agency Morhaim Literary, predicted an outcry on Twitter and in the <keyword id="6354777" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Media">media</keyword>, but also wondered if there would be a bubble effect if people did speak out: "Are we all just talking to ourselves on Twitter?"</p><div type="image" title="simon and schuster" height="1500" width="2000" msid="79515995" hostid="261"></div><h2>Publishing a Trump memoir could leave lasting brand damage</h2><p>David Unger directs the publishing certificate program at the City College of New York, which aims to equip students — especially from underrepresented backgrounds — with the skills and knowledge to enter the industry.</p><p>"There are many things I wouldn't do for money, but there are publishing houses that believe the bottom line is more important than their civic responsibilities," he told Business Insider by email. "I don't believe publishers should be giving a platform to an unscrupulous president who lacks any sort of moral compass."</p><p><a href="https://theglowup.theroot.com/how-two-black-women-sidestepped-corporate-america-to-bu-1845515170">Carol Taylor</a>, the editorial director of <a href="https://theglowup.theroot.com/how-two-black-women-sidestepped-corporate-america-to-bu-1845515170">McKinnon Literary</a>, said that, in the long term, publishing a book like Trump's "might end up damaging the publisher brand and identity," even if it makes money in the short term. (Taylor is also a former Random House book editor.)</p><p>Several publishing workers said they saw publishing Trump's memoir as a line in the sand that a larger house may not want to cross.</p><p>"I mean, there's one thing to say, 'Here's a Fox News pundit publishing a book that represents what they think and what they say on TV and things like that," McKean said. "And then there's a book by Donald Trump that would likely be full of lies, which makes me nervous to say, because does that put me at risk to say that?"</p><p>But Unger said he also didn't "believe that they should publish books by his many enablers." And publishing has already proved its track record of committing to conservative pundits. So while Trump may be a sticking point, the memoir could elicit a moment of greater reflection.</p><p>"I do believe in a marketplace of ideas and publishing a diversity of perspectives," one editor at a Big Five house told Business Insider. "Where the line gets fuzzy for me is, at what point are these perspectives or these books inciting violence, danger, xenophobia, racism?"</p><p>This editor suggested that publishing such books could put the people working on them in danger, or make them feel unsafe.</p><p>If Trump were to bypass the big publishing houses by self-publishing, that would put the fears of some liberal publishing staff at ease, but the agency assistant said they believed the writing was already on the wall.</p><p>"I think that the publishing industry has already shown their hand. I would be shocked if nobody bought this book. It's just a matter of how they're going to spin it."</p><p><strong><em>Do you have stories from inside publishing you want to tell? Email jkaplan@businessinsider.com.</em></strong></p>

The prospect of a Trump memoir is already filling publishing workers with dread — and could lead to revolt

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>Stocks closed sharply lower on Tuesday, briefly taking the S&amp;P 500 back into negative territory year-to-date.</p><p>Oil made new highs for the year, and Brent crude - the international benchmark - came with 50 cents of $50 per barrel.</p><p>First, the scoreboard:</p><ul><li><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Dow: </span>17,528.61, -182.10, (-1.03%)</li><li>S&amp;P 500: 2,047.11, -19.55, (-0.95%)</li><li>Nasdaq: 4,715.73, -59.73, (-1.25%)</li></ul><h2>US Economy</h2><p>In Fedspeak, <span>Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockart and San Francisco Fed president John Williams both said they would not rule out a June rate hike. </span></p><p>Lockhart noted that markets may be more pessimistic about the number of times the Fed will hike rates this year than he is. The Fed Fund Futures market is pricing less than a 50% chance of a rate hike through the end of this year. </p><p>All of the economic data released Tuesday beat expectations. </p><p>The <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/cpi-consumer-price-index-april-2016-2016-5">consumer price index</a> (CPI) rose more than expected in April, and recorded its biggest jump since February 2013. </p><p>The gauge of inflation rose 0.4% month-on-month and 1.1% year-on-year. Core CPI, which strips volatile food and energy costs, <span>rose 0.2% month-on-month, and rose 2.1% year-on-year, as expected.  </span></p><p>Rising gas prices accounted for much of the spike in headline CPI, as the gas index rose 8.1%. </p><p><span>"Higher energy prices over the past couple of months are starting to push overall inflation higher, and pass-through from energy to other prices will put upward pressure on core inflation in the months ahead," said <span>PNC chief economist Stuart Hoffman.</span></span></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/housing-starts-and-building-permits-may-17-2016-5">Housing starts</a> rose 6.6% to 1.172 million in April, while building permits rose 3.6% to 1.116 million.</p><p>What was encouraging about the report was a spike in Midwest activity, which contributed to much of last month's rise in housing starts, according to <span>Quicken Loans Vice President Bill Banfield. The rise in building permits signals that momentum is building in new home construction, he said. </span></p><p>But a downward trend may be starting in the Northeast and West, where starts dropped 3.5% and 2.5% month-on-month respectively, according to Trulia chief economist Ralph McLaughlin. </p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/industrial-production-and-capacity-utilization-april-2016-2016-5">Industrial production</a> climbed 0.7% last month after a 0.9% decline. Capacity utilization slipped to 75.4% from 75.8%. </p><p>Demand for electricity and natural gas rose to a more normal level after unseasonably warm weather in March reduced the need for heating. That raised utility production by 5.8% month-on-month, the most since 2007.</p><p> </p><h2>Home Depot</h2><p>Retail earnings are looking a lot different this week. After heavyweights like Gap and Macy's disappointed last week, we're finally getting some good results. </p><p>Particularly from <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-home-depot-tops-street-1q-forecasts-2016-5">Home Depot</a>, which crushed earnings expectations once again, and raised its outlook for the year. The home-improvement retailer benefited from rising home prices and milder weather.</p><p><span>It earned $1.44 per share ($1.33 expected) and revenues of $22.76 billion ($22.32 billion expected.) Sales at stores open for at least one year jumped 7.4% in the US. </span></p><p><span>And now for some evergreen bullish Home-Depot commentary, here's CFO Carol Tome (our emphasis):</span></p><p style="padding-left: 60px;"><span><span>Turning our attention to the full year, while US GDP forecast had pulled back slightly since we built our 2016 sales plan, we continue to see strength in the housing market, with home price appreciation, housing turnover and helpful formation trending where we thought they would. <strong>Sales in the first quarter exceeded our expectations, not just because of favorable weather, but because of higher demand for many of our core product categories.</strong></span></span></p><p><span>The other bright spot in retail was TJ Maxx, which reported a better-than-expected quarter. </span></p><p><span>The discount retailer reported earnings per share of $0.76 on revenues of $7.54 billion ($0.71 on $7.28 billion expected.)</span></p><p><span>TJX can help us understand what's hurting other retailers, as BI's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tj-maxx-threat-to-department-stores-2016-5">Mallory Schlossberg wrote</a>. According to Neil Saunders, CEO of consulting firm Conlumino, consumers believe that they're getting great value for money. That makes them spend even when they are a bit tight on cash. </span></p><p><span>Saunders further said TJX offers genuine discounts that have been created with the customer in mind, not as an afterthought to clear clothes nobody's buying.</span></p><p>Of course, Amazon still remains a huge threat to every retailer, and Saunders points this out. But he says the thrill of rushing to a store for a bargain before items sell out is something TJX has going for it. </p><h2>John McAfee</h2><p>Not the man himself, but the company he's CEO of which was recently named after him. Its shares have soared 1,000% in a week.</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/john-mcafee-mgt-stock-2016-5">John McAfee Global Technologies Inc.</a> caught our attention as it was the most active stock on the market today.</p><p>BI's Bob Bryan looked into it, and wrote that the company has made an abrupt pivot from online gaming to cybersecurity.</p><p>It sold all but 11% of its stake in daily fantasy site DraftDay.com last September. And then its delayed annual report filed in April showed it was considering potential mergers, spin-offs and other strategic options. </p><p>The following month, <span>Michael Brauser of Grander Holdings bought 1.2 million shares of the company. He's been sued multiple times for fraud involving small, public companies. </span></p><p><span>And then earlier in May, its chairman stepped down before being replaced by McAfee, who bought the company for $300,000 in cash and 4.76 million shares of MGT.</span></p><p><span>Clearly, there's a lot going on with this company worth just over $150 million, whose shares changed hands more times than Bank of America's on Tuesday.</span></p><p><span>Stay tuned.</span></p><p><strong>Additionally:</strong></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/companies-acting-similar-to-the-financial-crisis-2016-5">CARSON BLOCK: The way companies are acting is eerily similar to the financial crisis</a></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-on-donald-trump-and-stocks-2016-5" class="title">MARK CUBAN: Stocks could crash 20% if Trump becomes president</a></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/left-long-valeant-short-mallinckrodt-2016-5">The short seller who took down Valeant is now long the stock. He went on TV to explain why and ended up slamming a different stock</a></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/global-economy-biggest-threat-2016-4">FORMER GREEK FINANCE MINISTER: The single largest threat to the global economy</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="4wNWo1MzE6mCXkk1XHZUEjn1PYYwkNot" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

STOCKS SLIDE: Here's what you need to know

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ollesvensson/5068440047/in/photolist-8HT5Dn-c48z6h-kF93D9-4a5Xk2-ewMg35-471EuR-fyfLJ5-5NFhTB-5Z6iue-qVesoj-7XcGMK-jaL5-d6Lpoy-eAosiC-d1pdYj-8Qt9W3-7Y6XVD-7JBmHH-8ajEZM-7ZFXmA-bp9nmx-6HPouy-7YjyRU-d6Lq33-6o2cnx-ipJFc-8ccTJV-37PeZu-83pooq-2vAhTp-7Xf6ng-krRLnG-7Xf65z-8ztJ5W-85pwUH-86Lh7H-pdpBA8-oV9nTP-8GsZGy-ainbZ-dVnWU3-bvpN1s-6q5MDF-8kjqMq-8USgE6-31pnr1-8gXXKS-cT8D2J-bCTPy1-nzxvEj">Olle Svensson/Flickr</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div>Stocks on Tuesday gave up most all of their gains from Monday as oil fell, bank stocks got hammered, and markets saw much of the same action that defined price movements earlier this come back. </p><p>First, the scoreboard:</p><ul><li>Dow: 16,431.8, -188.9, (-1.1%)</li><li>S&amp;P 500: 1,921.3, -24.2, (-1.3%)</li><li>Nasdaq: 4,503.6, -67, (-1.5%)</li><li>WTI crude oil: $31.90, -4.4%</li></ul><h2>US Economy</h2><p>It was a busy morning for the US economy as we got housing data, consumer confidence data, and macro commentary from big housing-related companies this morning.</p><p>Overall, it was another day that pointed to steady but not stellar growth for the US economy, though we did get some worrying signals that consumers finally began to notice - and react to - recent stock market volatility.</p><p>The <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/conference-board-consumer-confidence-feb-23-2016-2">February reading</a> on consumer confidence from The Conference Board declined to 92.2 from January's revised 97.8 number, with the report indicating that the short-term outlook for consumers was impacted by the stock market. "<strong>Continued turmoil in the financial markets may be rattling consumers, </strong>but their assessment of current conditions suggests the economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace in the near-term," said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board.</p><p>And this jives with <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/toll-brothers-paints-bullish-picture-of-us-economy-2016-2">comments we got from Toll Brothers CEO Douglas Yearley</a> who noted that in February the company's sales were flat, which he said, "is understandable given the recent stock market decline and global economic uncertainty."</p><p>Elsewhere in Toll Brothers' report, though, we got signs that the US labor market continues to be putting pressure on employers with Toll's CFO Martin Connor saying, "We are experiencing modest lengthening of our production timelines associated with increasing complexity in our homes and a tighter labor market."</p><p>Toll Brothers shares gained almost 3% on Tuesday.</p><p>And because it wasn't a busy enough day for the US housing market, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/existing-home-sales-january-2016-2">existing home sales in January rose 0.4%</a>, besting expectations for a 2.5% decline and bringing the pace of sales to another post-crisis high. Following the report, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said, "In one line: Sales need to correct downwards, temporarily but inventory tight and prices soaring."</p><p>Case-Shiller home prices, meanwhile, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/spcase-shiller-home-price-index-dec-2016-2">showed prices rose 5.7%</a> over last year in December. </p><p>Inventory tight, prices soaring. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/2016-housing-market-affordability-outlook-2015-12">That's the whole story for US housing in 2016</a>.</p><h2>Home Depot</h2><p>If you want a company to give you a positive sign on the US economy, look no further than home improvement giant Home Depot. </p><p>In the fourth quarter, Home Depot <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-recovering-housing-market-drives-home-depot-sales-outlook-2016-2">reported same-store sales</a> that rose 8.9% with the company saying it expects sales to increase 5.1%-6% in 2016. Analysts had expected sales would rise about 3.7%-4.5% this year. </p><p>Additionally, Home Depot increased its dividend, announced a $5 billion buyback, and shares of the company rose about 1.6% on Tuesday, bringing the stocks' year-to-date gain to 11%. Simply put, there are few simpler ways to play a strong US consumer and tight US housing market than Home Depot. </p><p>When asked on its <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3921016-home-depot-hd-craig-menear-q4-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single">conference call</a> about impacts from the economy or the stock market, Home Depot CFO Carol Tome said simply, "we're not seeing that. Our business was good and continues to be good."</p><p>And if you want a bullish picture on the US economy in one paragraph from a corporate executive, here's Home Depot executive VP of merchandising Edward Decker:</p><p style="padding-left: 60px;"><span>In the fourth quarter, total comp transactions grew by 5%. And for the year, we set a new transaction record with over 1.5 billion total transactions. In the quarter, comp ticket increased 2%. Our comp ticket increase reflects about 32 basis points of contraction due to commodity price deflation in products such as lumber and copper. Transactions for tickets under $50, representing approximately 20% of our U.S. sales, were up 3.8% for the fourth quarter. Transactions for tickets over $900, also representing approximately 20% of our U.S. sales, were up 11.9% in the fourth quarter. The drivers behind the increase in big-ticket purchases were appliances, roofing and special-order kitchens. Big-ticket was also driven by several installation service categories such as roofing, sheds and countertops.</span> </p><h2>Brexit</h2><p>Look, we get it: you're not that interested in a vote happening in June about whether the UK will leave or remain in the European Union. </p><p>And while it doesn't seem <em>that</em> likely that the UK will vote to leave the EU, it is not something that should completely overlooked by US investors. </p><p>For one thing, there is a whole lot of US corporate profitability that comes from the UK and were its business ties with the EU to soften, bottom lines in the US could take a hit. "[G]iven the prominence of the U.K. in driving U.S. global profits, any talk or action that leads to the severing of U.K.-EU ties carries significant risks to the bottom line of corporate America," <span>Joseph Quinlan, head chief market strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch's US Trust division,</span> <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/what-brexit-means-for-corporate-america-2016-2">said in a note Tuesday</a>.</p><p>"A Brexit would squeeze the affiliate earnings of numerous U.S. multinationals strategically ensconced in the United Kingdom, and force many companies to rethink their overall EU strategies."</p><p>But perhaps more compelling is the precedent angle on what a Brexit would <em>mean</em>. Namely: it would allow - in theory - all other EU members who are unhappy about their standing in the Union to move to leave unless they get what they want.</p><p>We'd argue that the <em>most important</em> thing is that the UK does not want to be subject to the EU treaty's language that requires all members to work towards becoming an ever-closer union. And so the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pms-statement-following-european-council-meeting-19-february-2016">deal British prime minister David Cameron brokered</a> with EU leaders last week allows Britain, basically, to stand alone but still inside the "circle of trust," as it were. </p><p>And as <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-big-takeaway-politically-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-2016-2">Barclays' Marvin Barth wrote</a> in a note last month ahead of this officially-announced referendum set for June 23: "In our view, markets are overlooking two crucial aspects of the UK referendum on EU membership. First, the referendum is generally seen as a 'UK' or 'GBP' issue, when it is better seen as a <em>European</em> issue. Second, it has largely been viewed as an economic issue, but should best be analyzed through the lens of political economy."</p><h2>Hashtag Liquidity Squeeze</h2><p>Via Barclays</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>Barclays</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>The firm writes:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">The <a href="https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-16-15/s71615-96.pdf">new SEC proposal</a> would substantially expand requirements with respect to liquidity management practices for fund managers. The proposal is comprehensive and would affect many aspects of funds' operations. However, we believe the most important changes are along four dimensions, discussed in more detail below. </p><ol><li><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Funds would be required to bucket holdings into specific categories based on estimated liquidity.</span></li><li><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Each fund would need to determine a minimum level of "three-day liquid assets" (ie, those that can be converted into cash within three days) that it is required to maintain, based on its experience with inflows and outflows.</span></li><li><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Funds would be permitted to use "swing pricing" to the extent deemed necessary to impose appropriate costs on buyers/sellers in the event of significant inflows/outflows.</span></li><li><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Finally, each fund would be required to disclose its approach to measuring and managing liquidity risk (ie, the decisions made pursuant to 1-3 above).</span></li></ol><p><span style="line-height: 22.5px;">And look, I think the whole reason we're <em>still</em> talking about <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/liquidity">bond market liquidity</a> is because you don't know if you've got a liquid market until you really need to find out. In a way, bond market liquidity always was destined to be the perfect talking point because someone, somewhere, is <em>always</em> going to have trouble finding a market for some bond. </span></p><p><span style="line-height: 22.5px;">Maybe it's a high-grade corporate bond that - shockingly - can't find a bid at (what you think is) a reasonable price. Or maybe it's junior convertible debt from a shale oil company that never really had meaningful production and needed whatever production it did get to sell at $80/barrel in order to help fund (along with your loan!) exploration for future projects. </span></p><p>The thing about liquidity, again, is that it comes and goes, it is there and then it isn't, and you can <em>always</em> argue about whether a market is or is not liquid.</p><p>So the SEC's idea asking funds to put assets in liquidity "buckets" is sensible. Except asking funds to gauge the liquidity of some assets will be an exercise that may, in fact, get the fund into even more trouble should a moment of deep liquidity needs arise because certain assumptions made in good times will (often) not work in bad times. Or merely new ones. Though this is sort of the whole point of risk management. </p><p>Either way, I think it is fair to credit <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/howard-marks-liquidity-definition-2015-3">Howard Marks' March 2015 memo </a>with really setting off this conversation.</p><p>And for that, we thank him. </p><h2>Railroads</h2><p>In the run-up to Saturday's expected release of Warren Buffett's 2015 annual letter to shareholders, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-on-america-2015-2">we include his observations last year</a> on American business and why he bought BNSF back in 2009. </p><p>(Disclosure: I am a shareholder.)</p><p>Buffett:</p><p style="padding-left: 60px;">Late in 2009, amidst the gloom of the Great Recession, we agreed to buy BNSF, the largest purchase in Berkshire's history. At the time, I called the transaction an "all-in wager on the economic future of the United States."</p><p style="padding-left: 60px;">That kind of commitment was nothing new for us. We've been making similar wagers ever since Buffett Partnership Ltd. acquired control of Berkshire in 1965. For good reason, too: Charlie and I have always considered a "bet" on ever-rising U.S. prosperity to be very close to a sure thing.</p><p style="padding-left: 60px;">Indeed, who has ever benefited during the past 238 years by betting against America? If you compare our country's present condition to that existing in 1776, you have to rub your eyes in wonder. In my lifetime alone, real per-capita U.S. output has sextupled. My parents could not have dreamed in 1930 of the world their son would see. Though the preachers of pessimism prattle endlessly about America's problems, I've never seen one who wishes to emigrate (though I can think of a few for whom I would happily buy a one-way ticket).</p><p style="padding-left: 60px;">The dynamism embedded in our market economy will continue to work its magic. Gains won't come in a smooth or uninterrupted manner; they never have. And we will regularly grumble about our government. But, most assuredly, America's best days lie ahead.</p><h2>Additionally</h2><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-hedge-funds-sold-short-in-q4-2016-2">25 stocks hedge funds are shorting like crazy</a>. </p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-approves-dell-and-emc-deal-2016-2">Dell's $67 billion takeover of EMC looks like it's actually happening</a>. </p><p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/02/23/my-very-peculiar-and-speculative-theory-of-why-the-gop-has-not-stopped-donald-trump/?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-f%3Ahomepage%2Fstory">Donald Trump as the EMH-breaking moment for political scientists</a>.</p><p><a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9b3c71f8-d97f-11e5-a72f-1e7744c66818.html?siteedition=intl#axzz411HS1eyL">Martin Wolf in the FT on helicopter drops</a>. </p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/pinto-jpmorgan-revenues-down-in-1q-2016-2">JPMorgan said bad things</a>. </p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/robinhood-instant-fixes-the-most-annoying-thing-about-the-app-2016-2">Robinhood now lets you instantly re-invest funds on your phone</a>. For free, still. </p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/engineer-lives-in-a-boeing-airplane-2016-2">This guy lives in a Boeing.</a></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/most-iconic-war-photograph-of-all-time-2015-2">71 years ago today, US Marines raised the flag at Iwo Jima</a>. </p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/shake-shack-comparison-in-n-out-burger-fries-2016-2">We tried Shake Shack and In-N-Out side by side, and it's clear which one is better</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="9rNjN2MDE6ZCvd7MGc0y-1mkXggrAP0u" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

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