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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's win has upped the risk of a dire economic scenario, Nouriel Roubini says.</li><li>His policies could lead to stagflation, a fate experts have said is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-recession-us-economy-outlook-gdp-dimon-inflation-rate-cuts-2024-4">worse than recession</a>.</li></ul>Donald Trump's proposed economic agenda raises the risk of one of the worst-case scenarios for the US economy, according to Wall Street's "Dr. Doom" economist.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/who-is-nouriel-roubini-dr-doom-economy-recession-financial-crisis-2023-4">Nouriel Roubini</a>, the top economist known for his bombastic and frequently bearish prognostications, said he foresaw a challenging environment for the economy once Trump begins his second term as president. That's because Trump's proposed policies could spark a period of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-recession-us-economy-outlook-gdp-dimon-inflation-rate-cuts-2024-4">stagflation</a> for the economy, Roubini said, a situation some economic experts have described as even worse than a recession. In such a scenario, the economy would see a period of sluggish growth, soaring prices, high interest rates, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-stagflation-disaster-high-prices-inflation-high-unemployment-2022-3#:~:text=Normally%2C%20during%20a%20recession%20or,the%20corresponding%20relief%20on%20costs.">rising unemployment</a>.Roubini pointed to Trump's plans to levy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-recession-fears-jump-trump-trade-war-tariffs-2024-11">steep tariffs</a> on Chinese goods, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">cut taxes</a>, implement "draconian" <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-immigration-jobs-arizona-economy-mass-deportation-employment-wages-2024-10">restrictions on immigration</a>, and potentially <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-control-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-tariffs-inflation-2024-9">erode some of the Fed's independence</a>."If they were to follow those latter types of stagflationary policies, inflation will be higher, growth will be lower, bond yields will be higher because there is more inflation and more real rates with unsustainable deficits," Roubini said in an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-11-12/economist-roubini-says-bond-vigilantes-may-curb-trump-policies?srnd=phx-technology">Bloomberg</a> on Monday. "That's going to crowd economic growth, and bond yields above 5% would imply a correction of stock prices and negative impacts on the economy."Other experts have warned some of Trump's policies could lead to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">higher inflation and interest rates</a>, with his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-uncertainty-trump-presidency-inflation-tariffs-2024-11">tariff plan</a> attracting significant <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-economy-outlook-inflation-job-market-election-paul-krugman-2024-10">criticism</a> from economists. Trump implemented tariffs during his first term without a significant increase in inflation, but forecasts are different this time around given that his proposals are much more sweeping, with tariffs targeting not just China but the rest of the world as well. Trump has pushed back on the idea that his policies will stoke higher prices. In August, the president-elect swore his policies would <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://lower.In">lower inflation</a>. In the week leading up to the election, Taylor Rogers, a Republican National Committee spokesperson, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">told BI in a statement</a> that Trump would "once again cut taxes and unleash American energy to lower prices on groceries and other goods."But Roubini, who has warned of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-stagflation-debt-crisis-crash-federal-reserve-2022-12">stagflationary crisis</a> in recent years, has insisted <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dr-doom-roubini-trump-stagflation-tariff-immigration-dollar-inflation-recession-2024-10#:~:text=Stagflation%20occurs%20when%20inflation%20keeps,that%20tumbles%20into%20this%20situation.&amp;text=Typically%2C%20central%20banks%20lower%20interest,away%20if%20prices%20keep%20rising.">stagflation risks</a> will rise during Trump's presidency. Prior to Trump's election win, Roubini said the cost of tariffs could be passed onto consumers, and that restricting immigration could chip away one of the economy's main catalysts for growth.Trump following through with all of his proposals would also likely increase the federal debt balance by nearly $10 trillion over the next decade, Roubini estimated. "The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-inflation-interest-rates-fed-rate-cuts-fomc-meeting-outlook-2024-11">Fed will have to cut less</a>, maybe eventually stop sooner," Roubini said of interest rates, adding that the Fed could potentially even raise interest rates if stagflation sets in. "And then the Fed and Trump will be on a collision course."Still, Roubini acknowledged uncertainties with the economic outlook. Some of Trump's policies — like his plans to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bank-stocks-donald-trump-victory-reelection-wall-street-outlook-regulation-2024-11">loosen regulation</a> — could prop up business activity and fuel growth, Roubini noted.Markets also may be optimistic that they'll be able to reign in the future president by staging a selloff in bonds and equities, Roubini said. Other commentators have noted Trump is likely to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-policies-tax-cuts-inflation-government-debt-deficit-jeremy-siegel-2024-11">appease stock and bond investors</a> to avoid upsetting a booming market. "I think markets are still in a wait-and-see to figure out whether the policies are going to be hurting the economy," Roubini said. "Maybe the markets believe that the market discipline is going to discipline hin in advance, knowing that policies are not sustainable, are going to lead to bond market vigilantes and the stock market punishing him."Stocks took off in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-sp500-crosses-6000-level-investors-cheer-trump-2024-11">record-setting rally</a> last week after Trump secured his election victory. US stocks saw around $20 billion in inflows on Wednesday, according to Bank of America, the largest single-day stock purchasing boom in five months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-dow-crosses-44000-key-cpi-inflation-data-2024-11">closed at records on Monday. </a>

Trump's policies could usher in stagflation and send stock prices plummeting, 'Dr. Doom' economist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US electric demand is rising, fueled by everything from data centers to electrified transportation, says BofA.</li><li>By 2035, as much as 300 gigawatts of effective capacity could be required to power the nation.</li></ul>With resources flooding into infrastructure and tech, US electric demand is charging up. As the economy becomes more power-hungry, Bank of America considers momentum energized for five key utility stocks."There is now evidence that demand growth has returned, driven by the re-shoring of industry, the development of data and crypto mining centers and the electrification of buildings, transportation, and infrastructure," analysts wrote on Monday.Though power consumption has ebbed over the past two decades, the bank anticipates that the US will require 100 gigawatts of effective capacity by 2035. That indicates a 1.5% nationwide annual growth rate, compared to 0.5% between 2015 and 2024.Under BofA's high-case scenario, however, power demand could require as much as 300 gigawatts instead.Among factors driving this trend is artificial intelligence. The bank previously cited that this alone could require as much as 28 gigawatts of effective capacity by 2026.While this will vary dramatically per region, analysts listed five utility firms that stand to benefit from the acceleration: <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/sre-stock">Sempra</a>, Northwestern Energy, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/pnw-stock">Pinnacle West</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/etr-stock">Entergy</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/txnm-stock">TXNM</a>.1. Entergy stands to gain 3.6% from current levels, based on BofA's price objective of $138 per share. That's based on a 2026 sum-of-the-parts analysis and expectations that the utility firm's 15.4-times price-to-earnings ratio will rise over 5%.In 2024, the electric distributor has soared over 30% year-to-date. It has already <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/data-centers-electricity-consumers-discounts-utilities-2024-4">played a role</a> in the emerging buildout of AI data centers and has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-expand-access-ev-charging-rural-america-2022-3">helped expand</a> the power-charging grid for electric vehicles.2. Sempra will rise 13% based on the bank's $94 share target. Goldman Sachs has similarly touted this infrastructure firm, noting the company's significant spending to <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ai-stocks-to-buy-electricity-demand-benefit-utilities-data-centers-2024-5?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">support data center growth in Texas.</a>3. Northwestern Energy could similarly jump over 13% to reach a $65 price target, Bofa says."We value NWE at an in-line multiple given improving regulatory treatment in Montana and sector-average EPS growth with no equity dilution, with upside likely occurring in 2026 onwards," analysts wrote. "Between a more constructive regulatory construct and a strong balance sheet, we see NWE as differentiated relative to other small cap utilities."4. Pinnacle West will climb 4.6% under BofA's price objective of $93 per share. The bank has previously touted PNW among high-quality, value stocks <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-market-outlook-investing-strategy-volatility-vix-bofa-2024-8#25-lockheed-martin-25">worth owning to hedge against volatility</a>.5. TXNM Energy is set to increase 10% from current levels, reaching a price target of $48 per share.

5 energy stocks that will get a boost from ballooning electric demand

New Delhi: Shares of <keyword id="20599931" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="NTPC-Green-Energy" source="keywords">NTPC Green Energy</keyword> Ltd, the <keyword id="19895602" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="renewable-energy" source="keywords">renewable energy</keyword> arm of <keyword id="19903558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NTPC" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="NTPC" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="NTPC">NTPC</keyword>, listed with a premium of over 3 per cent against the issue price of Rs 108 on Wednesday. The stock made its debut at Rs 111.60, up 3.33 per cent from the issue price on the BSE. Later, it climbed 12.40 per cent to Rs 121.40. At the NSE, it listed at Rs 111.50, up 3.24 per cent. The company's market valuation stood at Rs 1,02,211.38 crore during the morning trade. Shares of NTPC climbed nearly 2 per cent to Rs 368.80 on the BSE. The <keyword id="19913114" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="initial-public-offering" source="keywords">initial public offering</keyword> of NTPC Green Energy Ltd got subscribed 2.40 times on the closing day of the share sale on Friday. The Rs 10,000-crore share sale had a price band of Rs 102-108 per share. Proceeds from the <keyword id="19898327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IPO" source="keywords">IPO</keyword>, about Rs 7,500 crore at the upper band, will be used to repay or prepay part or all of its subsidiary NTPC Renewable Energy Ltd's (NREL) outstanding loans, and a portion will be utilised for general corporate purposes. NTPC Green Energy is a 'Maharatna' central public sector enterprise with a renewable energy portfolio, including solar and wind power assets.

NTPC Green Energy shares debut with over 3% premium

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks bounced back from Monday's losing session as oil dropped and tech stocks surged.</li><li>Earnings season kicked off Tuesday, and major banks are scheduled to report on Friday.</li></ul>US stocks rebounded on Tuesday after Monday's losses, with momentum revived by a tech rally and falling crude prices.The Magnificent 7 tech cohort led the market higher, with Nvidia at the forefront. The AI chipmaker climbed 4% on Tuesday, while <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock">Meta</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock?miRedirects=1">Tesla</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock">Microsoft</a> all traded more than 1% higher.The surge in oil prices that pressured stocks on Monday, meanwhile, retraced, with international and US crude prices falling more than 4%. Energy traders pulled back on Monday as they continued to await retaliation from Israel over Iran's missile barrage last week, while a disappointing stimulus update in China weighed on the outlook for oil demand. In the US, Wall Street is keeping an eye on the upcoming consumer price index report for September. The inflation data will publish on Thursday, and will inform investors what to expect from the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting in November. Though the market had been anticipating another half-point interest rate cut next month, last Friday's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*qs0pxj*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODM5MTI5Mi43MDAuMS4xNzI4Mzk0MTk5LjUyLjAuMA..&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">big jobs report</a> erased those forecasts. Bank of America expects any upside surprise in the inflation data may keep <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-volatility-cpi-inflation-september-jobs-report-bofa-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">rates higher for longer</a>.At the same time, Fed officials have cited optimistic expectations for rate cuts to continue. On Monday, New York Fed president John Williams told the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/ea0b03d3-47c6-4b33-a6a7-770f5898f24e">Financial Times</a> that a quarter-point cut is a "very good base case."Economists project consumer inflation for September to come in at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.5% in August.Tuesday's session also marked the start of earnings season. In a new report, BofA noted that the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-q3-earnings-lower-rates-stocks-returns-outlook-bofa-2024-10?_gl=1*5idogj*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEyOTQ3LjUyLjAuMA">bar for third-quarter earnings is low</a>, adding that investors will likely reward firms as long as they express confidence about lower rates.Major US financial firms, including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock, report results on Friday.Among Tuesday's notable movers was Roblox, which briefly fell <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/roblox-stock-price-short-seller-hindenburg-report-gaming-inflated-metrics-2024-10?_gl=1*1dndsjr*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDE2ODE3LjYwLjAuMA..">nearly 10% in intraday trading,</a> after short-seller Hindenburg Research took aim at the gaming platform.Meanwhile, China's sharp equity rally <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stock-markets-csi300-golden-week-reopening-bazooka-stimulus-outlook-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">showed signs of slowing down</a>. Beijing's failure to announce new stimulus plans on Tuesday has disappointed investors.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,751.16, up 0.97% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,080.37, up 0.3% (+126.13 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,182.92, up 1.45% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/hurricane-milton-power-outage-florida-electricity-natural-gas-prices-futures-2024-10?_gl=1*13jm4ua*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEyODYyLjYwLjAuMA..">Energy traders bet Hurricane Milton will spark power outages and leave power plants idling in Florida.</a></li><li>Russia's economy can withstand pressure for several more years but will eventually face an<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10"> "unsolvable trilemma," </a>an expert says.</li><li>Rate cuts were supposed to ease mortgage rates. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10">Here's why the opposite happened.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-growth-stimulus-demand-emerging-markets-world-bank-2024-10">China's stimulus won't stop its GDP decline next year</a>, the World Bank says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/carl-icahn-hindenburg-research-short-seller-adani-group-nikola-block-2023-5?_gl=1*mqn88g*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEzMDgzLjQxLjAuMA..#3-draftkings-3">Roblox, DraftKings, or Icahn Enterprises: here are the biggest calls made by short-seller Hindenberg Research.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/meme-coins-bitcoin-inventor-surge-len-sassaman-crypto-hbo-documentary-2024-10?_gl=1*1kl3k6d*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEzMDExLjUwLjAuMA..">Meme coins tied to the identity of bitcoin's inventor have rallied ahead of a new documentary that could reveal their identity</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude sank 4.1% to $73.92 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, tumbled 4.1% to $77.57 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> fell 0.9% to $2,641 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was nearly flat at 4.018%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> dropped by 1.7% to $62,226.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Tech rally leads stocks higher as oil prices plunge and earnings kick off

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The election outcome is unlikely to impact stock prices, according to Bank of America.</li><li>Stock market performance is driven by profit growth, not shifts in the political landscape, the bank said.</li></ul>The outcome of the Presidential election in November should have little impact on the direction of stock prices, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/bac-stock">Bank of America.</a>In a note on Friday, Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian highlighted that the stock market rarely cares about which political party controls the White House.Instead, investors' focus should be squarely on profit growth."Profits accelerating are far more important than who is sitting in the Oval Office," Subramanian said.Furthermore, targeted policies from lawmakers on Capitol Hill can often have the opposite impact on a sector than investors would have thought.For example, when former President Donald Trump took office in 2017, energy stocks were seen as a likely winner due to his friendly stance towards oil drilling, while renewable energy stocks were seen as a likely loser.Instead, the energy sector was the worst-performing sector when Trump was in office, losing 29% even as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> surged 83%. Meanwhile, the clean energy sector rose 306% during Trump's presidency, according to data from YCharts.When President Joe Biden took office in 2021, many investors viewed the traditional energy sector as a likely loser due to the Democrats' typical unfriendliness toward oil companies, while clean energy stocks were seen as potential winners.Today, the opposite is true: traditional energy stocks have been the best-performing sector during Biden's presidency, rising 139%, while the clean energy sector is the worst-performing sector, down about 55%."Even directed policies have sometimes had opposite outcomes vs expectations," Subramanian said, adding that "there are nuances."This time around, Subramanian said investor expectations of stock market implications based on who wins the Presidency could once again fall flat.For example, while a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress may be viewed as favorable for Tesla stock, as CEO Elon Musk has warmly embraced Trump and the Republican party, it could actually be a negative because electric-vehicle tax credits would likely be at risk.Ultimately, Subramanian and her team expect the stock market to rise in 2025 regardless of who wins the election in November.That's because she expects 13% year-over-year growth in the S&amp;P 500's earnings per share next year, and profit growth has historically been the biggest driver of stock market gains."Profits matter more than politics," Subramanian said.<div type="image" title="Stock market" height="489" width="1200" msid="114438606" hostid="261" sizebytes="35498"></div>

Elections have little impact on stock prices. Here's what investors should focus on instead. 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Energy traders' attention is divided between Middle East tensions and China's stimulus, Dan Yergin says.</li><li>"You see the oil price oscillating between the two of those," Yergin says.</li></ul>Energy traders' attention is split between two forces with the potential to impact prices, energy expert Dan Yergin says. Yergin said Tuesday that traders are looking to China for signs of future demand while also bracing for disruptions amid ongoing geopolitical issues in the Middle East."I think right now the energy markets are really schizophrenic," Yergin told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/10/22/the-energy-markets-are-schizophrenic-right-now-sp-global-vice-chairman.html">CNBC in an interview</a>.Yergin, vice chairman of S&amp;P Global, says the market's focus is two-sided, switching between potentially promising stimulus in China and rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. "You see the oil price oscillating between the two of those," Yergin said.On the one hand is China, which for the last two decades has made up half of the growth in world oil demand. That's been challenged in recent years as the country faces a sluggish economy and weak consumer demand. Measures rolled out after the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">initial stimulus announcement</a> last month have helped China's prospects of getting out of its slump, he says."There does seem to be a little more confidence now that wasn't there at the beginning about the Chinese stimulus measures, that they may actually have an appreciable impact on economic activity and demand," Yergin said.The most recent measures from Beijing include <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-3q-gdp-growth-stock-market-stimulus-2024-10">funding programs</a> that will inject as much as 800 billion Chinese yuan, or $112.6 billion, into its stock market, as well as a series of interest rate cuts.On the other hand, the market is also focused on uncertainty about the conflict in the Middle East, and if the war will actually impact oil infrastructure in the region, Yergin says.He says that's especially true after last week when Israel <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-killed-yahya-sinwar-thanks-luck-persistence-hamas-gaza-war-2024-10">killed its top target</a>, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. "I think it's even more dangerous, because, of course, it's really a waiting period. When will the Israeli retaliation against Iran occur, is it tomorrow? The next day? Is it after the presidential election? That part is unclear, and Iran has threatened to retaliate again," Yergin said.Yergin says the market is stuck in a state of "wait and see" as it assesses how the war could disrupt oil infrastructure. He adds that while the conflict was previously a proxy war, it could now become a direct conflict, raising the stakes even higher for the Middle East's oil market.As a result of these two forces, and with traders waiting to see which could have a greater impact on supply and demand dynamics, the oil market is in a holding pattern. Prices have seesawed between the low $70 level and around $80 as traders react to new developments. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, was trading about 1% lower on Wednesday at $75.30.

Energy markets are 'schizophrenic' amid rising geopolitical tensions and China's stimulus, energy expert says

US short-seller <keyword id="20016892" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hindenburg-Research" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Hindenburg Research" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Hindenburg Research">Hindenburg Research</keyword> has alleged that it suspects <keyword id="19901201" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sebi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Sebi" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Sebi">SEBI</keyword>'s unwillingness to act against <keyword id="19955648" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Adani-Group" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Adani Group" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Adani Group">Adani Group</keyword> may be because of its head Madhabi Puri Buch had stakes in <keyword id="20311680" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="offshore-funds" source="keywords">offshore funds</keyword> linked to the conglomerate - an allegation that the SEBI head called "baseless" and an attempt of "character assassination". Hindenburg alleged that Buch and her husband had undisclosed investments in <keyword id="22746661" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="obscure-offshore" source="keywords">obscure offshore</keyword> funds in Bermuda and Mauritius, the same entities allegedly used by <keyword id="20283220" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Vinod-Adani" source="keywords">Vinod Adani</keyword> - the elder brother of group chairman Gautam Adani - to round-trip funds and inflate stock prices. SEBI in October 2020 began a probe into the shareholding structure of Adani Group companies after red flags were raised over high concentration of foreign holdings in the conglomerate's listed companies. Investigation was launched to determine if the foreign investors are genuine public shareholders or acting as fronts for the promoters. SEBI last year had told a Supreme Court-appointed panel that it was investigating 13 opaque offshore entities that held between 14 per cent and 20 per cent across five publicly traded stocks of the conglomerate. It hasn't stated if the two incomplete probes have since been completed, something which Hindenburg used to attack the market regulator. Madhabi and her husband Dhaval Buch in a joint statement strongly denied the "baseless allegations and insinuations made in the report". The same, they said, "are devoid of any truth". "Our life and finances are an open book," they said. "It is unfortunate that Hindenburg Research against whom SEBI has taken an enforcement action and issued a show cause notice has chosen to attempt character assassination in response to the same." While the statement did not talk on the questions Hindenburg raised over SEBI probe, the duo promised to come out with a detailed response. Hindenburg on Saturday stated that the Madhabi and her husband invested in offshore entities that were allegedly part of a fund structure managed by India Infoline and in which Vinod Adani also had investments. These investments reportedly date back to 2015, well before her appointment as a whole-time member of SEBI in 2017 and the subsequent elevation as chairperson in March 2022. It said Bermuda-based Global Opportunities Fund, which allegedly was used by entities connected to Adani Group to trade in shares of group companies, had sub-funds. Buch and her husband were investors in one of these sub-funds in 2015. Citing "whistleblower documents", Hindenburg said, "<keyword id="22743118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Madhabi-Buch" source="keywords">Madhabi Buch</keyword>, the current chairperson of SEBI, and her husband had stakes in both obscure offshore funds used in the Adani <keyword id="22743230" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="money-siphoning" source="keywords">money siphoning</keyword> scandal." SEBI, it claimed, has "shown a surprising lack of interest in Adani's alleged undisclosed web of Mauritius and offshore shell entities." The Buchs may have first opened their account with IPE Plus Fund 1 on June 5, 2015 in Singapore. IPE fund is a small offshore Mauritius fund set up by Vinod Adani through India Infoline (IIFL), a wealth management firm with ties to the Wirecard embezzlement scandal. "Vinod...used this structure to invest in Indian markets with funds allegedly siphoned from over invoicing of power equipment to Adani Group," claimed Hindenburg. Latching on to the Hindenburg allegations, Congress said the revelations only reinforced its demand for setting up a "joint parliamentary committee to investigate the full scope of the Adani mega scam" while the Trinamool Congress said the SEBI chairperson must resign. In January last year, Hindenburg accused Adani Group of pulling "the largest con in corporate history" by using a web of companies in tax havens to inflate its revenue and manipulate stock prices, even as debt piled up. After the Hindenburg report, the SC asked SEBI to complete its investigation and set up a separate expert panel to look into regulatory lapses. The panel did not give any adverse report on Adani and the apex court too stated that no other probe other than one being done by SEBI was required. On June 26 this year, SEBI in a show cause notice charged Hindenburg of "deliberately sensationalising and distorting certain facts" as well as working with a New York hedge fund to make its bet. Hindenburg had responded to that saying it made just USD 4.1 million from its declared positions on Adani stocks and criticised the regulator for not focusing its investigation into the January 2023 report "providing evidence" of the group creating "a vast network of offshore shell entities" and moving billions of dollars "surreptitiously" into and out of Adani public and private entities. Gautam Adani, who was the world's third-richest man before Hindenburg, in an epic comeback strategy raised USD 15 billion in equity and debt, sold some assets, repaid loans that was raised pledging shares, reined in expenses and refocused energies on core business. Adani is now ranked 12th richest in the world. The group has also made some acquisitions, buying cement company Sanghi Industries and the news agency IANS. Hindenburg on Saturday alleged that just weeks before Buch's appointment to SEBI, her husband requested the transfer of their investments into his sole control, potentially to avoid any scrutiny related to her new regulatory role. The couple's investments were reportedly funnelled through a complex, multi-layered offshore structure, raising questions about their legitimacy and purpose. On March 22, 2017, just weeks ahead of Buch's appointment as SEBI whole-time member, Dhaval wrote to Mauritius fund administrator Trident Trust. That communication was regarding his and his wife's investment in the Global Dynamic Opportunities Fund (GDOF), the US firm alleged. "In the letter, Dhaval requested to "be the sole person authorised to operate the Accounts", seemingly moving the assets out of his wife's name ahead of the politically sensitive appointment," Hindenburg alleged. Dhaval is a senior advisor at Blackstone and at Alvarez &amp; Marsal. He also serves as a non-executive director on the Board of Gildan.

After Adani, Hindenburg targets SEBI chief, she calls allegations baseless, character assassination

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks tumbled sharply on Thursday, dragged down by tech. </li><li>Microsoft and Meta stock dropped on renewed concerns over AI spending. </li></ul>US stocks fell sharply on Thursday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq sliding almost 3% as Meta and Microsoft faced steep losses.The tech sell-off was sparked by the latest earnings from mega-cap firms that mostly exceeded estimates but disappointed investors in other areas and exacerbated concerns about heavy investment in artificial intelligence. The S&amp;P 500 dropped almost 2% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 370 points. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,705.37, down 1.86% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,763.19, down 0.9% (-378.35 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,095.15, down 2.76%</li></ul>Much of the disappointment came down to the tech giants' guidance. Microsoft said it expects the current quarter's revenue to come in between $68.1 billion and $69.1 billion, while analysts polled by FactSet had expected $69.89 billion. The company attributed the slowdown partially to its investment in cloud computing capacity for AI demand.Microsoft's stock fell 6% to close at $406.35. Meta, meanwhile, said it expects a ramp up in capital expenditures in the next year as it continues to spend on AI, and raised its capex forecast for this year to a range of $38 billion to $40 billion, from $37 billion to $40 billion.Analysts from UBS, though, remain positive that the increased spend will deliver."While Meta continues to signal a significant increase in CapEx for 2025, the results also highlighted multiple offsets to illustrate what the investments will start to bring - as we have been calling out previously, the easiest item to observe is the absolute step up in revenue dollar growth in 2024 which stands at ~$28B currently and nearly matching the Pandemic-driven acceleration from 2021 of ~$29B," the analysts wrote in a Thursday note.Meta's shares lost 4% to close at %567.68. Also on Thursday, investors digested the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The personal consumption expenditures index cooled to 2.1% year over year in September from 2.2% in August, but the core index—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—came in higher than forecasts at 2.7%.Jobless claims, meanwhile, fell by more than expected to 216,000 last week, a fall of 12,000 from the week prior. Economists had expected 230,000 claims.Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>3 reasons why surging gold prices will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-record-outlook-3-reasons-continued-rally-goldman-sachs-2024-10">climb another 8%</a> by the end of 2025, according to Goldman Sachs.</li><li>AI hype is a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-prediction-ai-artificial-intelligence-bubble-jeremy-grantham-2024-10?_gl=1*jsb4bv*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDQwMDU1MC4zNDQuMS4xNzMwNDAxMDQ5LjIuMC4w">bubble set to burst</a> as it follows the path of tech manias throughout history, legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says.</li><li>Coinbase CEO says next Congress will be the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/election-crypto-political-funding-pac-coinbase-ceo-trump-harris-congress-2024-10?_gl=1*1rwo0ws*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDQwMDU1MC4zNDQuMS4xNzMwNDAxMDcwLjQzLjAuMA..">"most pro-crypto" ever</a> and pledges another $25 million in political funding.</li><li>Microstrategy is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/microstrategy-bitcoin-michael-saylor-crypto-btc-record-high-mstr-2024-10?_gl=1*iiycnz*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDQwMDU1MC4zNDQuMS4xNzMwNDAxMDk5LjE0LjAuMA..">raising $42 billion</a> — almost its entire market value — to buy more bitcoin.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures were up. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> rose 2.8% to $70.53 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 0.8% to $73.17 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose slipped 1.6% to $2,756 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury was about flat at 4.278%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> traded around $70,000. </li></ul>

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