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Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Fundstrat's Tom Lee expects the S&amp;P 500 to top 15,000 by 2030.</li><li>Demographic trends, millennial spending habits, and technology advancements will be key drivers. </li></ul>Fundstrat's Tom Lee raised eyebrows last month when he made an extremely bullish prediction: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-triple-by-2030-tom-lee-fundstrat-2024-6#:~:text=The%20stock%20market%20could%20nearly%20triple%20by%20the%20end%20of,levels%20to%2015%2C000%20by%202030.">the S&amp;P 500 will nearly triple by 2030.</a>In an interview with Bloomberg's Odd Lots, Lee said he expects the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a> to top 15,000 by the end of the decade. The index traded at around 5,630 on Friday."If this is a normal S&amp;P cycle following demographics…S&amp;P should be potentially 15,000 by the end of the decade. To me, as you move into a longer timeframe that's probably where I think we're moving towards," Lee said.In the interview, Lee said he was looking at a handful of charts that back up his bullish long-term prediction. Here are the four charts Lee shared with Business Insider that show why the already upbeat forecaster is so bullish on the stock market.<h3 id="df727cf6-8bb6-4ec3-97c7-4614b747ecd9">1. Thank you, millennials</h3><div type="image" title="Millennials spending" height="828" width="1135" msid="111733079" hostid="261" sizebytes="71844"></div>Lee put the chart above together several years ago, but his thesis remains the same. The average age of millennials is now around 31 years old, and the global cohort of 2.5 billion people is starting to enter its prime age years of 30-50 years old."This would be the third time that stocks entered a cycle where annual returns compound at high teens. You had the roaring 20's, and then you had the 50's through the late 60's, and this is a third cycle," Lee told CNBC last month."They all coincided with a surge in the number of people aged 30-50, so in other words the number of prime age adults, and this time it's powered by millennials and Gen Z.""It's a demand story. When you get to your prime years, 30-50, Urban Institute shows you start to borrow more money, you're making big life decisions, this is what powers the economy."<h3 id="e72248b3-6cb3-40a8-8bf8-41e84702d128">2. Stock market peaks and demographics</h3><div type="image" title="Stock market peaks by demographics" height="812" width="1097" msid="111733084" hostid="261" sizebytes="52364"></div>The stock market has a history of peaking right around the same time a population hits its peak prime age of around 50 years old, as they are closer to retirement and often spend less money.For example, when the greatest generation peaked in 1930, that coincided with a multi-year bear market in stocks.Fast-forward to 1974, when the silent generation saw its prime age peak. This occurred around the same time as a painful stock market correction of about 35% that lasted years.And the peak in the baby boomer population's prime age was in 1999, just a year before a multi-year bear market hit stocks.The average millennial is not set to hit their peak prime age until 2038, suggesting plenty of upside ahead for the stock market between now and then, according to Lee.<h3 id="23f8d663-9330-4aa6-9e06-42d589074e23">3. Tech will address a global labor shortage</h3><div type="image" title="stock market technology spending" height="839" width="1167" msid="111733080" hostid="261" sizebytes="67460"></div>According to Lee, spending on technology will boom in the coming years as the world grapples with a growing labor shortage."We have a really big opportunity for US technology companies because of AI, which is supplying the global digital labor, because there's a global labor shortage. So these two forces are combining to I think power almost a decade of extraordinarily good stock returns," Lee said."I think that there's going to be a lot of dollars spent on US technology product because the world is short 80 million workers by the end of this decade, that's roughly $3 trillion of labor salary that's turning into silicon, so that means US suppliers of silicon and AI are going to have a $3 trillion revenue run rate."<h3 id="731b5e66-3d3a-4e16-94fc-f353649deab2">4. Money will flow into US tech stocks</h3><div type="image" title="stock market automation ai" height="827" width="1129" msid="111733082" hostid="261" sizebytes="74108"></div>As more companies spend trillions of dollars on technology to address a global labor shortage, that will catapult the technology sector to make up 50% of the S&amp;P 500.The information technology sector currently makes up about 30% of the index."If US companies are growing earnings at this speed, the P/E multiple of the US should go up. There's going to be capital flows into the US. Where else in the world do you find the best and most important technology companies, they're all basically in America," Lee said.

4 charts show why Wall Street's most bullish strategist expects the stock market to triple by 2030

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bitcoin dropped on Monday amid the global market meltdown. </li><li>Crypto has not been spared the carnage as traders eye a growing risk of a US recession. </li></ul>Bitcoin dropped on Monday amid the broad sell-off across financial markets that kicked off last week. The world's biggest cryptocurrency was down as much as 19% over the weekend, though it pared that loss to about 7% shortly after noon on Monday. The token was trading at $54,934 at 12:24 p.m. ET. Ethereum, the world's second-largest crypt, was also down, trading 12% lower at $2,488. The sell-off in crypto comes as risk assets plunge in a global market rout caused by worries over the state of the US economy. A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sahm-rule-recession-outlook-indicator-triggered-unemployment-rate-jobs-report-2024-8?_gl=1*6xk1gc*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyMjg3MTE0OC44Ni4xLjE3MjI4NzEyNjAuMTguMC4w">disappointing jobs report</a> and weak manufacturing data last week raised concerns that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut rates. Some market observers have said that the historic market rout could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-recession-outlook-economy-job-market-interest-rates-2024-8">prompt an emergency rate cut from the central bank in the next week</a>. Such a move would be a rare acknowledgment by the Fed of the dire conditions facing the economy. Historically, an emergency cut has been reserved for "black swan" events like the pandemic and the terror attacks of September 11. The bout of stock market volatility is the strongest since the onset of COVID-19 in 2020. Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropped 12% early Monday in its worst single-day decline since 1987, and markets in South Korea and Europe also plunged. With weaker job growth than expected, "financial markets indicate that the risk is no longer balanced between growth and inflation," analysts from Bank of America said in a Sunday note.The analysts aren't optimistic that new data in the coming weeks could sway markets."Recent data suggests growth is slowing faster than expected and there are no major data releases or earnings over the coming weeks that could reverse the narrative," they said.The upcoming release of consumer price index data on August 14 could "be a major downside catalyst if it comes in hot," they added."Some crypto experts remain optimistic that the sell-off is a stopover before further gains materialize. "Judging from historical trends in the crypto market, before the market forms a true bullish drive, it needs to experience a sharp decline to reduce the long positions of the contract in order to reduce the selling pressure for future rises," Gracy Chen, CEO of crypto exchange company Bitget, said in a Monday note.

Bitcoin tumbles as risk assets plunge in global market rout

<ul class="summary-list"><li>In his annual letter to JPMorgan shareholders, Jamie Dimon rang the alarm on geopolitical tensions.</li><li>The bank's CEO said investors were too optimistic about inflation, interest rates, and the economy.</li></ul>Jamie Dimon is deeply concerned about international relations — and worries investors are too optimistic about threats such as inflation, interest rates, and recession.The JPMorgan CEO made his case in a <a target="_blank" href="https://reports.jpmorganchase.com/investor-relations/2023/ar-ceo-letters.htm">dour shareholder letter</a> published on Monday."We may be entering one of the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jamie-dimon-dangerous-world-geopolitics-wars-debt-federal-reserve-2023-10">most treacherous geopolitical eras</a> since World War II," Dimon said.He pointed to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-invasion-ukraine-was-a-geopolitical-earthquake-that-defined-2022-2022-12">wars raging</a> in Ukraine and the Middle East, the US and China <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-trade-war-export-manufacturing-property-crisis-biden-trump-2024-3">butting heads</a> over issues like trade, and a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/moscow-attack-could-drive-wedge-between-putin-russia-ally-tajikistan-2024-3">resurgence</a> in terrorist attacks.Sharp increases in food and energy prices, steeper borrowing costs, increased recession odds, and whipsawing markets have also heightened global fear and uncertainty, Dimon said.The billionaire banker outlined why he was especially worried about stubborn <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/what-is-inflation">inflation</a>. He ticked off governments' deficit spending and epic amounts of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-government-morici-unemployment-national-debt-jobs-fiscal-stimulus-spending-2024-3">fiscal stimulus</a> in recent years; the remilitarization trend; the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-leaving-china-diversifying-supply-chains-apple-tsmc-mazda-2023-6">ongoing overhaul</a> of global supply chains; the costs of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/navigating-trillion-dollar-challenge-green-energy-financing-2023-12">green-energy transition</a>; and the possibility of higher energy prices in the future because of underinvestment in energy infrastructure.Dimon also called out equity and credit markets for pricing in a 70% to 80% probability of a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-soft-landing-odds-economy-inflation-job-market-goldman-2024-3">soft landing</a>, where the US economy skirts a recession and both inflation and interest rates fall. "I believe the odds are a lot lower than that," he said.The bank chief cautioned against paying too much attention to monthly inflation figures or the timing of the next rate cut. He said that the larger forces he's worried about may have locked in longer-term rates already and that minor tweaks might not matter much.Indeed, Dimon said JPMorgan was ready for rates of 2% to 8% or even higher. He said a 2-percentage-point increase in rates had slashed the value of most financial assets by 20% and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-big-trouble-crash-bank-crisis-2024-2">particularly vulnerable</a> real-estate assets like office space by possibly even more.The Federal Reserve has raised rates from nearly zero to north of 5% to combat inflation. If they rise further, Dimon said, "there will be plenty of stress — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nycb-regional-bank-fears-commercial-real-estate-turmoil-fears-2024-2">not just in the banking system</a> but with leveraged companies and others."He flagged the possibility of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-economy-market-outlook-stagflation-portfolio-allocation-impact-stocks-bonds-2024-2">stagflation</a>, which could usher in higher rates, large credit losses, a slump in business volumes, and tough markets.The Wall Street heavyweight also touched on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-ai-extraordinary-consequences-transformative-internet-electricity-2024-4">artificial intelligence</a>, which became a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ai-artificial-intelligence-stocks-buy-investing-tech-rally-morgan-stanley-2024-3">major market theme</a> last year. "We are completely convinced the consequences will be extraordinary and possibly as transformational as some of the major technological inventions of the past several hundred years: Think the printing press, the steam engine, electricity, computing and the Internet, among others," he said.

JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warns the world is on fire &mdash; and plenty of people are way too bullish

German auto maker <keyword id="19911529" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="audi" source="keywords">Audi</keyword> is bullish on <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword> but believes that till the time high taxes rationalise to a lower level, penetration of luxury cars in the country will continue to remain low compared to South East Asian countries, according to a senior company official. Audi expects growth of the luxury car market in India to moderate to low double digits in 2024 compared to around 25 per cent in 2023. "The overall car industry is growing, as well as the luxury segment is growing. Last year was one of the biggest numbers that the industry could achieve, which is also in line with the overall growth of the country," Audi India Head Balbir Singh <keyword id="20078415" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dhillon" source="keywords">Dhillon</keyword> told PTI. He further said, "(India's) GDP is growing, all the parameters that you see for the growth of automotive industry is showing an upward direction. So we believe we are in the right space at a good time and it's time for India and we will continue to grow as well." Dhillon was responding to a query on how Audi is looking at India as a market for its overall growth strategy from a global perspective. On the potential of the Indian market, Dhillon said, "If I compare the Indian luxury (car) space, I would still say we are in the nascent stage. "We (industry) sold about 48,500 cars last year, which is just a little over 1 per cent of the overall car industry. So we still are very small in terms of the percentage and the Southeast Asian market." In many countries in that region the penetration of luxury cars to the overall car market is in the range of five to six per cent and in some markets as high as 20 per cent, he said. "So I think we have still a lot of area to cover," he said, adding, a rationalisation of taxes to lower level will help fuel the growth of luxury car market in India further. "We do see this trend that overall, in some point in time, the taxation structures will get rationalised (and) the industry will also grow much faster," he said. As of now, the overall tax rate (GST plus cess) on most of luxury cars are about 50 per cent, he added. "I'm sure at some point in time it will rationalise that will give us a kick-start for a very fast growth, till that it will continue to grow maybe at a lower space," he said. When asked about the outlook for the year, Dhillon said, "(Audi India) grew by almost 90 per cent last year and the industry grew by about 27 per cent. "So, we do see the industry growing also in 2024, but may not, may not be to the extent of 25-26 per cent but low double digit and we also see ourselves growing in the same range in 2024 as well." Last Audi India sold 7,931 units in 2023 as against 4,187 units in 2022. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/indian-smartphone-market-flat-in-2023-after-q4-boost-apple-crosses-10-million-mark/articleshow/107419298.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/indian-smartphone-market-flat-in-2023-after-q4-boost-apple-crosses-10-million-mark/articleshow/107419298.cms" target="_blank">Indian smartphone market flat in 2023 after Q4 boost; Apple crosses 10 million mark</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/ola-electric-continues-to-lead-the-segment-in-electric-scooters-in-january-2024/articleshow/107424791.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/ola-electric-continues-to-lead-the-segment-in-electric-scooters-in-january-2024/articleshow/107424791.cms" target="_blank">Electric scooter sales grow 26% in January as Bajaj, Ather jostle behind TVS and Ola</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/upcoming-smartphones-launching-in-india-in-february-2024/slidelist/107220575.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/upcoming-smartphones-launching-in-india-in-february-2024/slidelist/107220575.cms" target="_blank">Samsung to Nothing – The upcoming smartphones hitting Indian market in February</a>

You Searched For "bullish global trend" and got 5 results

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

BI India Bureau

4 charts show why Wall Street's most bullish strategist expects the stock market to triple by 2030

Matthew Fox

Bitcoin tumbles as risk assets plunge in global market rout

Kelly Cloonan

JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warns the world is on fire and plenty of people are way too bullish

Theron Mohamed

Bullish on India; luxury car penetration expected to remain low till tax rationalisation: Audi

PTI

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