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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The bull market will accelerate under Trump, Evercore ISI analyst Julian Emanuel says.</li><li>Emanuel says Trump will enact deregulatory policies quickly, which will cause stocks to soar.</li></ul>It is still early days for the bull market and the rally is set to accelerate under the coming Donald Trump presidency, according to Evercore ISI analyst Julian Emanuel.Emanuel says the S&amp;P 500 will reach 6,600 by the end of June, implying an 11% gain from current levels. He points to Trump's deregulatory agency, which could help boost corporate profits. "This market will be driven higher by the policy prospect of deregulation in DC," Emanuel wrote in a Wednesday note.Emanuel says Trump will likely act fast to enact his policies when he re-enters the White House. Things like deregulation and corporate tax cuts will boost business activity and allow stocks to surge, he said."Exuberance lies ahead; President-Elect Trump will move fast on policy initiatives, and stocks will move fast in response."The bull market's two-year run has been driven by strong growth from mega-cap tech stocks, and high valuations will rise even higher, he said. "Expensive has a history of getting more expensive and lasting longer with greater gains," Emanuel said.He pointed to data showing the average bull market sees a rise of 152% over 50 months, while the current market has seen just a 65% gain in the last 25 months, he says.It's "still an infant," Emanuel said.Emanuel's projected jump for the S&amp;P 500 through the middle of next year comes after Trump won the presidential election in a sweeping victory earlier this week, fueling <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11?_gl=1*1xh3s50*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTAwODAzMy4zNzcuMS4xNzMxMDA4MzA5LjYwLjAuMA..">widespread investor optimism</a>.Indexes soared to record highs on Wednesday after the election result was called, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining over 1,500 points. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bank-stocks-donald-trump-victory-reelection-wall-street-outlook-regulation-2024-11?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bank stocks</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-trump-win-elon-musk-election-tsla-2024-11?_gl=1*dfo8wa*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTAwODAzMy4zNzcuMS4xNzMxMDA4NDU5LjQ3LjAuMA..">Tesla,</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-soars-crypto-president-donald-trumps-election-betting-odds-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">bitcoin</a> all saw big moves higher.

The S&P 500 will gain 11% by mid-2025 as the bull market accelerates under Trump, Evercore says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A number of bank research desks have raised their S&amp;P 500 price targets in recent weeks.</li><li>The adjustments come as the index continues its bull market run, up 3% in the last month and 23% this year.</li></ul>The bull market hasn't weakened in the fourth quarter, and top bank research desks have been rushing to raise their S&amp;P 500 price targets into year-end. Strategists from Goldman Sachs, UBS, BMO, and Deutsche Bank have raised their year-end price targets on the S&amp;P 500 in recent weeks as the benchmark index continues to hit record highs. On Monday, it notched its 46th all-time high of 2024. UBS strategists Jonathan Golub and Patrick Palfrey upped their 5,600 price target to 5,850 for the end of the year, marking their fourth upgrade since late last year.The target is just slightly above the level the index is trading at on Wednesday, but the analysts forecast a 9% rise in the next 15 months and raised their target for 2025 from 6,000 to 6,400 in a note on Tuesday. Earlier this month, meanwhile, Goldman Sachs raised its target on the index to 6,000 by December, marking the fourth increase since late last year. The call, from the firm's chief equity strategist David Kostin, is the second highest among those tracked by Bloomberg.Kostin said the estimates were driven by a steady macro outlook and greater margin expansion."The primary driver of the upward revision to our 2025 EPS estimate is greater margin expansion," Kostin said, adding, "The macro backdrop remains conducive to modest margin expansion, with prices charged outpacing input cost growth."Kostin's price target is just behind that of BMO's chief equity strategist, Brian Belski, who raised his forecast from 5,600 to 6,100 last month. Belski's new target implies a nearly 5% gain through the rest of this year.Belski said his upgrade was based on strong market gains so far this year, which he says typically leads to stronger-than-normal gains in the fourth quarter."We continue to be surprised by the strength of market gains and decided yet again that something more than an incremental adjustment was warranted," Belski said in a note.He added that Federal Reserve easing and a broadening market rally will only help fuel further gains.Deutsche Bank also raised its year-end target for the S&amp;P 500 last month, up to 5,750 from 5,500. The bank's strategists pointed to strong corporate earnings and inflows, rising stock buybacks, and higher risk sentiment."We see S&amp;P 500 earnings growth continuing to run robustly in the low double digits, in line with typical growth rates outside of recessions," the strategists said in a note.The strategists' target raises come amid a chorus of strategists turning decidedly more upbeat on the market. JPMorgan's chief equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/wall-street-biggest-bear-jpmorgan-stock-market-outlook-interest-rates-2024-10">recently recommended</a> investors should get less defensive after a strong September jobs report."While it is too soon to assume that this is a turning point, it does suggest that a recession is unlikely in the near term, especially since surprisingly strong job growth and a downtick in the unemployment rate broke a slowing trend in the job market," he said in a note earlier this month.Lakos-Bujas kept his 4,200 price target for the S&amp;P 500 unchanged, though.The more upbeat 2024 forecasts come as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">bull market charges on</a>, with the S&amp;P 500 up 3.2% in the last month and 22.6% this year. Several risks persist, though, with the upcoming US presidential election in November, an unclear trajectory of monetary policy easing from the Fed as economic data comes in mixed, and as war in the Middle East continues to threaten stability in the region and beyond."Fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty, and potential election outcomes, make 2025 returns far from certain," UBS analysts said.

Top Wall Street analysts are boosting stock market forecasts as the bull market charges on

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The S&amp;P 500 has enjoyed a bull market since October 2022, rising nearly 70%.</li><li>LPL Financial's Quincy Crosby expects the rally to continue into 2025.</li></ul>The stock market has been experiencing a bull market for the last two years.The S&amp;P 500 bottomed in October 2022 and has gained nearly 70% since then.It's safe to say that the economy is on much better footing than it was two years ago. Although there are still concerns about rising prices, headline inflation has markedly improved from the 8.2% level that consumers were experiencing back then.<div type="image" title="Strong S&amp;P500 appreciation over the last two years" height="377" width="676" msid="114397005" hostid="261" sizebytes="14026"></div>Now, as election and geopolitical tensions cause volatility, the question is whether this winning streak will continue for a third year and into 2025.Quincy Crosby, LPL Financial's chief global strategist, believes it will."There's no compelling reason that this bull should surrender to the always lurking bear, especially with an accommodative Federal Reserve, solid economic underpinning, and an earnings outlook poised for stable growth," Crosby wrote in a note.<h2 id="97136535-3e84-4462-b401-6e41cd366c5e">3 reasons for a third year</h2>Bull markets don't die of old age, according to Crosby. External factors such as a recession, increasing interest rates, poor performance from corporate America, and geopolitical shocks are what usually halt a stock market runup.Luckily, Crosby doesn't see room for those concerns.As companies begin to report their third-quarter results, it's clear that the earnings of the market's biggest companies are strong. And it seems like the earnings season is off to a good start: the big banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo all beat consensus earnings estimates.The Magnificent Seven drove much of the returns for the S&amp;P 500 this year, contributing 34% of the index's total return. Now, the market is slowly broadening and bringing even more companies into the fold.According to Morningstar category data, investors are increasingly pulling money out of the technology sector and investing in areas like real estate, consumer defensive, and utilities.Analysts expect S&amp;P 500 companies to report 4.2% profit growth for Q3. Crosby expects corporate earnings to rise throughout 2025, boosted by robust operating margins and increased consumer spending.Earnings for non-tech companies are catching up, too. According to Jack Ablin, the chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, the other 493 are projected to grow profits by double digits in the first quarter of 2025.Crosby is also optimistic that the Federal Reserve will successfully engineer a soft landing, bolstering the economy and encouraging consumer confidence. Goldman Sachs and prominent economists have reduced the probability of a recession within the next year to just 15%, the average likelihood of a downturn in any given year. And if the labor market shows signs of weakness in the coming months, Crosby has faith that the Fed will cut rates more aggressively to stimulate the economy.The September retail sales report revealed an increase of 0.4% last month, beating the consensus prediction of 0.3%, and providing yet another indicator of a solid economy.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has caveated that the path to lower inflation could be "bumpy," but Crosby believes the economy is trending in the right direction.Lastly, historical precedent is on the bull market's side. Ever since World War II, bull markets that have lasted two years continue onwards for a third.Concerns about the election impacting the market are also overblown, according to Crosby."There's a focus on election year 'uncertainty' rather than the 'certainty' the market historicallyenjoys once the election is over, and the market concludes the year during the most hospitable period in terms of seasonality," Crosby wrote.While stocks do tend to be more volatile in the three months leading up to Election Day, Buchbinder points out that the S&amp;P 500 Index ends the year higher 83% of the time. Markets also often exhibit a fourth-quarter rally after the election results bring increased stability, meaning that these seasonality trends support a continuation of the bull market.

3 signs that investors should expect the bull market to continue for a third year in 2025 

New to the stock market? Here are terms you should know

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Billionaire investor Bill Gross says the stock market's record-breaking run is set to slow.</li><li>He recommends that investors reposition toward defensive and high-yielding stocks.</li></ul>Though this year's record-beating stock rally <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-goldman-sachs-boosts-sp500-price-target-again-2024-10#:~:text=Goldman%20Sachs%20raised%20its%20S%26P,trends%20should%20boost%20earnings%20growth.">continues to impress</a> Wall Street, billionaire investor Bill Gross isn't so sure the bull market will maintain its hot pace for much longer.According to the so-called Bond King's latest <a target="_blank" href="https://williamhgross.com/investment-outlook-archive/">note</a>, investors should reposition toward defensive and higher-yielding stocks as momentum winds down. He also recommended low exposure to fixed income, having previously <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/bond-yeidls-bill-gross-rising-treasury-issuance-government-debt-deficits-2024-5">criticized current Treasury conditions.</a>"No bear market, but it's not the same bull market anymore," Gross said, adding that equities are set for "low buy positive" returns going forward.Gross also listed four of his favorite investments at present time:The first is <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/ale-stock">Allete</a>, an electric-service company that has risen 5% year-to-date. It's a buyout with 10% upside over the next 12 months, he said.Gross also touted multiple limited partnership pipelines, an investment he frequently emphasizes as a fruitful alternative to bonds. He cited that MLPs offer 8% tax-deferred yields. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bill-gross-investing-strategy-oil-gas-piplines-limited-partnerships-ai-2024-5">Back in May</a> he said that MLPs had been "almost as good as AI."On the theme of Treasury alternatives, Gross also cited <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nly-stock">Annaly Capital Management</a>, a high-yielding mortgage REIT.He also sees <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/municipal-bonds-muni-recession-outlook-sahm-yield-curve-charles-schwab-2024-8">municipal income</a> funds as a worthwhile investment, as many have offered over 7% tax-free yields. Gross named the DWS Municipal Income Trust as one example but noted that there are between 20 and 30 others to choose from."7% may not last forever, but for now these funds trade at 6-8%," he said.Gross isn't going as far as to predict that the stock bull run is about to crash, only that a number of headwinds are around the corner. These range from extended valuations to an assortment of macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds.Gross specifically cited higher corporate taxes under a Kamala Harris presidency, as well as stunted growth if military tensions keep escalating globally. Rising deficits — an issue the investor has <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/bill-gross-us-debt-crisis-deficit-inflation-federal-reserve-default-2024-2">repetitively warned against</a> — will eventually slow down spending.Gross also referred to the record cash pile held by legendary investor Warren Buffett, which some see as a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-record-cash-pile-stock-market-crash-signal-berkshire-2024-5">sign that the market could soon sell off sharply</a>. To Gross, it at least signals a "bumpy road ahead."His note also cited some positives to counter the listed headwinds, such as falling inflation and continued investment in artificial intelligence.

Billionaire 'Bond King' Bill Gross recommends 4 defensive investments for a bull market he sees losing steam

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The cyclical bull rally starting in October 2022 is expected to last into 2025, according to Ned Davis Research.</li><li>The firm highlights a chart that shows the historical trends of cyclical bull market rallies, and when they typically end.</li></ul>The cyclical bull rally that started in October 2022 is set to last well into 2025, according to historical trends highlighted by Ned Davis Research.The research firm published a note last week that included a chart illustrating prior cyclical bull rallies within a secular bull market, as is the current rally.What Ned Davis Research found is that the average rally, based on the start date of the October 2022 stock market bottom, should last into the summer of 2025.And it could last even longer into 2026 if it follows the footsteps of the 2011 to 2015 cyclical bull rally, or well into 2030 if it follows the path of the technology-fueled cyclical rally of 1990 to 1998.<div type="image" title="Cyclical Bull Rally" height="708" width="954" msid="112146030" hostid="261" sizebytes="85196"></div>The bullish outlook from Ned Davis Research comes amid a slight correction in the stock market, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-nasdaq-tech-selloff-tesla-alphabet-q2-earnings-2024-7">Nasdaq 100 falling nearly 10% from its recent peak in July.</a>But the correction is just that, a short-term decline, and it doesn't mark the end of the bull rally, according to the note."The global soft landing evidence and accommodative monetary policies continue to bode well for long-term equity performance," Ned Davis Research said. "We expect to remain overweight equities, with the correction leading to a buying opportunity."The research firm currently recommends its maximum overweight target to equities at 70% in a balanced portfolio, with the remaining 25% and 5% being allocated to bonds and cash, respectively.Ned Davis Research said risks of a new bear market remain low, and that the current correction in stocks is perfectly normal given the seasonal weakness during the summer.Solid valuations, subdued investor sentiment, an ok macro environment, and falling bond yields mean "the weight of the evidence has remained consistent with an ongoing secular bull," Ned Davis Research said.To monitor the current health of the bull rally in stocks, the research firm suggests investors closely monitor earnings results.The rate at which US companies are beating analyst profit estimates has topped 75% for five straight quarters, according to the note, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-investors-data-earnings-july-fed-fomc-meeting-2024-7">results announced so far for the second quarter</a> suggest the streak will increase to six straight quarters.But if momentum in the earnings beat rates starts to decline, that would be a warning sign."If the beat rate starts declining with momentum turning negative, the increasing disappointment could trigger more selling. But if the beat rate remains elevated as the earnings season matures, the chances for a market recovery will improve," Ned Davis Research said.Ultimately, the recent correction "should give way to another leg higher in the continuing bull market," Ned Davis Research concluded.

This chart suggests the current bull market rally in stocks will extend into 2025

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson believes an 'everything rally' can take hold in the stock market.</li><li>Jackson compared the current economic environment to the 1982 bull market, when rates dropped and the economy grew.</li></ul>The stock market's relentless rise higher could turn into an "everything rally," according to hedge fund manager Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital.In an interview on Tuesday, Jackson told CNBC that the current environment of economic growth and interest rates is reminiscent of the early days of the 1982 bull market, which is one of the stock market's best-performing advances of all time.The first 10 months of the 1982 bull market saw the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq</a> soar 107%, according to Jackson."The last time that the yield curve was inverted for so long and then finally broke out to the upside the way that we've seen recently, in a benign economic environment where rates are coming down, was August of 1982," Jackson said.He added: "And when that happened, there was a stock market rally which lasted 10 months. Nasdaq went up 107% over those 10 months. So I think we could be in for an everything rally."That means, according to Jackson, everything from small-cap technology stocks to the mega-cap tech stocks will rally higher, together. The combination of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">interest rate cuts from the Fed,</a> resilient economic growth, and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-indicator-perfect-track-record-flashes-yield-curve-spread-disinversion-2024-9">un-inversion of the yield curve</a> is overall a favorable environment for risk assets, especially if inflation stays subdued.When a similar scenario played out in the summer of 1982, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> launched a five-year bull market that delivered a total return of 229% and annualized gains of 26.7%, the second-highest annualized gain on record, according to data from FirstTrust. The un-inversion of the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yield curve is significant because it has been in negative territory for about 26 months, the longest in history. The yield curve <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-indicator-perfect-track-record-flashes-yield-curve-spread-disinversion-2024-9">finally went positive earlier this month.</a> The yield curve flashing between positive and negative and positive is considered <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-indicator-perfect-track-record-flashes-yield-curve-spread-disinversion-2024-9">a reliable recession indicator,</a> but with the economy still in good shape, this time appears to be different, as it was in 1982.

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