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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US is set to suffer the biggest jump in economic misery this year as <keyword id="22195" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Inflation">inflation</keyword> slows and unemployment spikes.</li><li>The country dropped to rank 25 from rank 50 in <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-06/misery-ranking-will-show-u-s-getting-worse-versus-rest-of-world?sref=jxky9jIk">Bloomberg's Misery Index</a>, which measures 60 different economies around the world.</li><li>Thailand, Singapore, and Japan ranked as the year's least miserable economies, while Venezuela, Argentina, and South Africa ranked the lowest on the list and showed the most misery.</li><li>Israel, Iceland, and Panama were the only countries to post drops even close to the US's, according to Bloomberg.</li></ul>The US is projected to undergo the biggest increase in economic misery across 60 countries as the nation grapples with heightened unemployment and fresh coronavirus hotspots.<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-06/misery-ranking-will-show-u-s-getting-worse-versus-rest-of-world?sref=jxky9jIk">Bloomberg's Misery Index</a>, which ranks major economies by inflation and unemployment expectations, shows the country sinking to rank 25 from rank 50 in 2020. Venezuela, Argentina, and South Africa held their spots as the world's most miserable economies.Thailand, Singapore, and Japan registered as the least miserable nations, with the latter two each jumping one spot and pushing Switzerland into fourth place.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-stock-picks-tips-from-top-fund-manager-tom-marsico-2020-8">Tom Marsico's growth fund has crushed its benchmark for 13 years — and returned 28 times its peers in 2020. Here's what he's been buying, and the beaten-down stocks he plans to grab after the pandemic.</a>The US was hit by both plunging inflation expectations and spiking joblessness. Economists expect near-term inflation to slide below 1% in the US as a drop in consumer spending drives steady disinflation. The nation's unemployment rate spiked as high as 13.4% in the second quarter from a pre-pandemic reading of 3.5%, ranking among the worst labor market tumbles around the world.Israel, Iceland, and Panama were the only countries to suffer a drop close to that seen in the US, according to Bloomberg. Of the world's largest economies, China and Japan declined the least, while the eurozone and the UK both experienced bigger jumps in joblessness and drops in inflation.Luxembourg's <keyword id="34412" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="economy">economy</keyword> improved the most from 2019 to 2020 by leaping to rank 30 from 47.Not all index improvements equate to economic happiness, according to Bloomberg. Some higher rankings were fueled by demand hits that pushed inflation expectations into negative territory. The top four least miserable economies of 2020 all expect <keyword id="42667" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="deflation">deflation</keyword> to hit in the near future. Such a trend would likely harm borrowers and worsen an already steep <keyword id="6357558" type="DEFINITION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Recession">recession</keyword>.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picking-advice-criteria-from-market-beating-investor-harding-loevner-2020-8">Harding Loevner's global stock fund has trounced the market for over 30 years. Here's an inside look at the simple 4-part stock-picking criteria that helped the firm balloon to $72 billion.</a>

US suffers world's biggest jump in economic misery as COVID cases surge

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The misery index is a measure of a nation's financial health.</li><li>The misery index is calculated using several economic factors, such as <keyword id="11894140" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> and <keyword id="11898806" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="unemployment" source="Orion">unemployment</keyword>.</li><li>Politicians, pundits, and academics may reference the misery index more than investors.</li></ul>Money might not buy you happiness, but there's often a correlation between economic opportunity and personal wellbeing. After all, you likely won't be very happy if you can't afford basic necessities, find a job, or get a loan. Trying to find an exact measure of happiness — or misery — can be difficult. And that's where the misery index comes in. The misery index is an economic indicator that determines how the average person is doing financially. It uses several simple inputs to create an easy-to-understand and replicable measure of a nation's misery levels. <h2>The factors that go into the misery index</h2>Taking a closer look at each of the misery index factors can be important for understanding how the indexes work. Focusing on Hanke's Annual Misery Index (HAMI), which we'll cover later, these factors are:<ul><li>The annual unemployment rates. Unemployment measures the percentage of people who are actively looking for work but can't find a job. </li></ul><ul><li>The annual inflation rates. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-inflation">Inflation</a> is the rising costs of goods and services. As prices increase, you need more money to buy the same thing, which is why inflation could lead to misery. </li></ul><ul><li>Bank lending rates. The rates that banks pay for short-term loans, which can impact the rates that consumers pay on loans and lines of credit. </li></ul><ul><li>The change in gross domestic product. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-real-gdp">Real gross domestic product</a> (GDP) measures the change in a country's economic output, after accounting for inflation or deflation. </li></ul>A higher number is worse because it indicates a country is more miserable. In 2020, Venezuela (3,827.6), Zimbabwe (547), and Sudan (193.9) topped the HAMI with the highest scores. Overall, the median value of the 156 included countries was 23.4.In the news: US <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/inflation-cpi-october-price-growth-index-supply-chain-crisis-recovery-2021-11">consumer prices increased</a> by 6.2% from October 2020 to October 2021. While unemployment rates are dropping, high inflation could lead to a high misery index score, especially if interest rates increase and real GDP doesn't. <h3>How to calculate the misery index</h3>To calculate the HAMI, add the inflation, unemployment, and lending rates. Then, subtract the GDP per capita to determine the current misery index. HAMI = [Unemployment + Inflation + Bank‐​Lending Rate] − Real GDP GrowthFor the HAMI, these figures come from several sources, including the Economist Intelligence Unit, International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, World Bank, and the International Labor Organization. <h2>The history of the misery index</h2>The misery index has undergone several revisions over the years. But the first misery index was called the Economic Discomfort Index, and it was simply the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates. Arthur Okun, an economist and member of President Jonhson's Council of Economic Advisers, created that first index so the president could get a quick read on how the country was doing. It became popularized in the 1970s, and stuck as journalists and presidential candidates used it as a talking point during campaigns."For Okun, it was just inflation plus unemployment," says Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at <a href="https://engineering.jhu.edu/ehe/faculty/steve-h-hanke/">Johns Hopkins University</a> in Baltimore. "Unemployment is bad — that's misery." Robert Barro, a Harvard economist, created a new Barro Misery Index (BMI) in 1999. He added two factors: the change in interest rates (based on long-term government bond yields) and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. "He added something that subtracted from misery, which was economic growth," says Hanke. In 2011, Hanke created his own revised misery index. Later coined Hanke's Annual Misery Index (HAMI), the index considers the unemployment, inflation, and bank‐​lending rates as negative values. "If it's harder for you to get credit and you have to pay more for it, it makes you more miserable. It makes life more difficult," explains Hanke. It then offsets the sum of these with the percentage change in real GDP per capita, a positive factor. Unlike Barro's index, the HAMI can be applied across the world, and Hanke releases an <a href="https://www.cato.org/commentary/hankes-2020-misery-index-whos-miserable-whos-happy">annual table</a> of different countries' misery index scores. Note: Other types of misery indexes have also been created, such as Tom Lee's Bitcoin Misery Index, which is intended to measure how miserable Bitcoin holders are, the Bloomberg Misery Index, which is based on inflation and joblessness forecasts.<h2>Misery index criticisms</h2>While the misery index's power and popularity come from its simplicity, that also opens it up to criticism. For instance, it doesn't include broad factors that may be important to an individual's happiness or misery, such as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/purchase-power">real-wage growth</a> or consumer confidence. And it uses the unemployment rate, which is a lagging indicator — the <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword> is already doing poorly when people are losing their jobs, and may have begun recovering before unemployment rates drop. But Hanke says that's not really the point, "the misery index is not a forecast." And while other indicators might include nuances that could help evaluate or predict misery, Hanke notes that the HAMI is popular because of — rather than in spite of — its simplicity and transparency. "Everyone sees it and can understand it," he says. "You can measure a lot of other things, but no one understands them, so they've never gone anywhere."<h2>The financial takeaway</h2>A misery index can give you a hot take of a countries' current misery levels based on its inflation, unemployment, interest, and real GDP rates. "The reason that it's used, and it's really more in the political sphere and the policy world, is that it's easy to understand," says Hanke. "If the economy is tanking, your political polling is going to start tanking."However, individual investors generally don't rely on a misery index when making investment decisions. Even if you want to use it as a factor in your decision making, say when you're deciding between several foreign funds, know that it's not intended for investors.

The misery index: An economic indicator that measures the financial well-being of the a country's citizens

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Analysts expect S&amp;P 500 companies to post record <keyword id="12932837" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="margins" source="Orion">margins</keyword> in 2022 but spiking <keyword id="6356975" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="wages" source="Orion">wages</keyword> are a threat to that view, says Bank of America. </li><li>Year-over-year wage growth through December shot up by nearly 5%. </li><li>Rising labor costs are highly correlated to companies expressing misery, the bank said. </li></ul>The steep climb in wages for workers poses a threat to margin growth for Corporate America, Bank of America said Tuesday as the fourth-quarter <keyword id="6357061" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="earnings" source="Orion">earnings</keyword> season gets underway. Companies have been hiking pay to compete in a market rife with labor shortages during the COVID pandemic and apparent structural changes that are seeing people shun low-paying jobs. Wage growth surged in 2021, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wages-are-going-up-american-workers-labor-shortage-great-resignation-2022-1">rising by 4.7%</a> in the twelve months through December.Combined with supply-chain disruptions, companies' margins were squeezed last year, and Wall Street sees a drop of 100 basis points in fourth-quarter net margins to 11.8%, ex-financials.There's broad agreement among analysts that margins are due for a rebound this year, with an expansion to a new record high by the second quarter, BofA said. But that consensus now looks shaky."Supply chain pressure could moderate, but a continued rise in wage costs and slowing macro conditions will likely weigh on margins. We see risk to consensus margin expectations in 2022," Savita Subramanian, head of US equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America Global Research, said in an earnings-tracker note. In fact, more than producer prices and commodities, wage pressure is a bigger risk to S&amp;P 500 margins than any other input, with labor representing about 40% of total costs, the bank warned, citing the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. BofA said its Corporate Misery Indicator that uses average hourly earnings as a negative input has been highly correlated to year-over-year earnings growth, at 66%. The correlation "drops significantly" to 28% using the producer price index and to a reading of -46% using the Bloomberg Commodity Index.

Rising wages are the biggest threat to earnings and 'corporate misery' is correlated to higher labor costs, Bank of America says

<ul><li>The world's reserve currency can expect a tough quarter ahead as "stars are aligned against" the greenback, according to a top currency strategist. </li><li>"This is one of the rare occasions when Europe will actually outperform the US," private bank Brown Brothers Harriman's head of global currency strategy told CNBC in an interview on Thursday.</li><li>The <keyword id="75201" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Dollar-index">dollar index</keyword> has lost over 7% in the last three months, while gold has touched a record high and shot past the $2,000 mark this month.</li><li>The strategist turned bearish against the <keyword id="35208" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="dollar">dollar</keyword> in April, when the US central bank began to pump record amounts of <keyword id="45304" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Stimulus">stimulus</keyword> to shore up the <keyword id="34412" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="economy">economy</keyword> against the economic downturn triggered by the <keyword id="8763838" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="covid-19">COVID-19</keyword> pandemic.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>The US dollar is in for an unpleasant quarter, according to a currency strategist who believes the "stars are aligned against" the world's reserve currency.The ability of the US government to fight the pandemic as successfully as other countries is acting as a drag on investor confidence in the dollar, Win Thin, global head of <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword> strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, told <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/stars-are-aligned-against-the-dollar-currency-expert-win-thin-warns.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&amp;par=sharebarebar">CNBC</a> on Thursday. "This is one of the rare occasions when Europe will actually outperform the US," the strategist said in a CNBC "Trading Nation" interview. "The stars are aligned against the dollar." The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/historical-prices/us-dollar-index">dollar index</a>, which measures the performance of the dollar against six major currencies, has lost 7% over the last three months, falling to its lowest in over two years, while gold, which tends to profit from dollar weakness, has gained more than 30% in this time to hit record-highs above the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/gold-price-hits-new-record-high-briefly-tops-stimulus-bill-2020-8-1029468528#">$2,000 mark</a>. On Friday, the dollar index stood around 93.15. Thin predicts it will tease the 2018 low of 89.24 before the year ends. Indeed, the euro is 2020's top performing currency from amongst the G7, with a gain of 5% against the dollar. <div type="image" title="Screenshot 2020 08 07 at 11.48.07" height="906" width="1820" msid="77414177" hostid="261"></div>"I do suspect given the cyclicals, we'll test the downside of that range, and for the dollar index, that's around 88," he said. "So, we've got some ways to go."It was in April, when the Federal Reserve began to pump trillions of dollars into the economy to limit the damage from the pandemic, that Thin turned bearish against the dollar.But he does not believe the weakening in the dollar will be long-lasting, as there's an ongoing debate over whether it's a "structural or cyclical decline.""The Fed is being much more aggressive than other central banks, and the US economy is likely to underperform in the coming months due to the pandemic. So to me, that's a cyclical issue," he said.Not everyone agrees on how long the world may see a weaker dollar.Another <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-dollar-bear-territory-bearish-correction-5-10-years-citi-2020-6-1029277408#">strategist at Citigroup</a> said last month that the dollar "could enter into a bear market that could last for five to 10 years."<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/dollar-goldman-sachs-shorting-coronavirus-reopening-norway-krone-currency-trade-2020-6-1029268688?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest#est#">Goldman Sachs</a> too has said how some countries' strong fiscal positions and smooth reopening have created attractive opportunities to short the dollar. The US healthcare system and its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-profit-decisions-healthcare-us-weak-response-ability-fight-outbreak-2020-4">profit-driven nature</a> have hampered its ability to fight the pandemic, according to a number of economists.The US is projected to suffer the biggest increase in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economic-misery-jumps-unemployment-spike-coronavirus-recession-inflation-fears-2020-8">economic misery </a>this year, as inflation slows and unemployment spikes, according to Bloomberg's Misery Index, which tracks 60 economies around the world.The country dropped to No. 25 from No. 50 alongside Israel, Iceland, and Panama.

A top strategist says 'stars are aligned against' the dollar this year and Europe will eclipse the US

<ul><li>The <keyword id="191733" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hindenburg" source="Orion">Hindenburg</keyword> fallout has wiped out all the gains made by Gautam Adani and the <keyword id="6367820" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Adani-Group" source="Orion">Adani Group</keyword> in all of 2022.</li><li>Gautam Adani’s wealth has declined by nearly $58 billion since January 24, and from being the third richest person, he’s now out of the top 20.</li><li>The combined market capitalization of the Adani Group companies, excluding ACC and Ambuja Cements, has fallen by ₹11.12 lakh crore in this period.</li></ul>The post-Hindenburg rout in Gautam Adani and the Adani Group is best illustrated by this – the last 9 days have wiped out more wealth and market capitalization of Gautam Adani and the Adani Group than they gained in all of 2022. Adani’s fall from grace has been fast – he began 2023 as the third richest person in the world, and is now out of the top 20 on Bloomberg Billionaires Index. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Adani’s Hindenburg Disaster" comment="subhead" text="Adani’s Hindenburg Disaster">Adani’s Hindenburg Disaster</cmsannotation> <keyword id="9916845" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hindenburg-Research" source="Orion">Hindenburg Research</keyword>, the US-based short seller which released a report alleging stock manipulation and accounting fraud in the Adani Group companies, is named after the<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_disaster"> Hindenburg Disaster</a>. Hindenburg’s report on the Adani Group was two years in the making, when Gautam Adani’s wealth increased from $10 billion to $119 billion. However, since January 24, when the <keyword id="16248764" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hindenburg-report" source="Orion">Hindenburg report</keyword> was released, the decline in Adani’s fortunes has been swift and drastic, wiping out nearly half of his wealth in just nine days. Adani’s wealth now stands at $61.3 billion after a decline of nearly $58 billion. The last time Adani’s wealth was at this level was in August 2021. For context, Adani was the top wealth gainer in 2022, adding $44.6 billion to his net worth. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Adani’s fortunes tied closely to those of the Adani Group" comment="subhead" text="Adani’s fortunes tied closely to those of the Adani Group">Adani’s fortunes tied closely to those of the Adani Group</cmsannotation> Adani’s personal fortune is largely tied to the Adani Group, as reflected in the large shareholding of the promoters in the group companies. As such, the decline in Adani’s personal wealth is a reflection of the decline in Adani Group’s market capitalization. In the last nine days, the combined market capitalization of the Adani Group, excluding ACC and Ambuja Cements, has declined by ₹11.12 lakh crore, wiping out 47.8% of investor wealth in the process. <div type="image" title="adani-chart-1" msid="97574786" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Adani Group companies&amp;#39; market capitalisation decline since January 24&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> ACC and Ambuja Cements have been excluded in this calculation since their acquisition was complete only in September 2022. Two companies – the flagship Adani Enterprises, and Adani Ports &amp; SEZ have been the biggest losers, accounting for ₹6.35 lakh crore of the total decline in the group’s market capitalization. Troubles have continued to mount for the Adani Group in the past few days and the bottom is still not in sight. After reports of beleaguered investment banker Credit Suisse halting margin loans on bonds of Adani Group companies, Citigroup’s wealth arm has also<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-02/citigroup-s-wealth-unit-halts-margin-loans-on-adani-securities"> reportedly</a> followed suit. Piling on the misery, Dow Jones removed Adani Ports &amp; SEZ from its sustainability indices (DJSI) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) put three Adani Group companies, namely Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports &amp; SEZ, and Ambuja Cements under Additional Surveillance Mechanism (ASM) measures. Further, according to a<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/adani-bonds-hit-distressed-levels-after-stock-sale-is-pulled"> Bloomberg</a> report, Adani Group companies’ bonds have hit distressed levels, falling to 70 cents on the dollar. The yields have also shot up drastically to more than 30% in secondary markets, while junk bonds’ yield stood at 8.14%. However, to placate investor concerns, Gautam Adani has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-02/adani-said-in-talks-to-prepay-share-pledges-to-boost-confidence">reportedly</a> offered to prepay some loans backed by share pledges. Despite this, investors remain spooked, with the flagship Adani Enterprises’ stock tumbling by as much as 35% in the first half of trade on Friday. <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Text"><cdata><![CDATA[]]></cdata></div> SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/budget-for-the-amrit-kaal-powered-by-capex-rooted-in-fiscal-consolidation/articleshow/97551916.cms">Budget for the Amrit Kaal: Powered by capex, rooted in fiscal consolidation</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/gautam-adani-says-it-would-not-have-been-morally-correct-to-continue-with-adani-enterprises-fpo/articleshow/97542675.cms">Gautam Adani says it would not have been ‘morally correct’ to continue with Adani Enterprises FPO</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/gautam-adani-calls-off-adani-enterprises-fpo-after-28-crash-in-stock-price/articleshow/97534098.cms">Gautam Adani takes the high road and calls off Adani Enterprises FPO after a 28% crash in stock price</a>

Hindenburg Effect: Last 9 days wipe out gains clocked by Adani Group in 2022

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Americans have a pessimistic view of the <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword> right now, and it's making for a Grinchy <keyword id="12030580" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="christmas" source="Orion">Christmas</keyword>.</li><li>Wealthier shoppers are spending but grumbling about gift availability during the supply shortage.</li></ul>America is running out of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reviews/out?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fis-santa-claus-coming-to-town-maybe-not-blame-the-labor-shortage-11636471869">Santas</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-10-03/supply-chain-nightmares-threaten-to-ruin-christmas">evergreens</a>, and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/11/holiday-shopping-shortages-fueled-by-energy-crises-vietnam-shutdowns.html">gifts</a>. None of that makes for a very Merry Christmas.Just ask holiday shoppers, many of whom feel like a Grinch in an <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-american-dream-changed-unraveled-housing-labor-supply-chain-shortage-2021-11">era of shortages</a> this holiday season.Thanks to <keyword id="11894140" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> fears, the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment reported economic angst at <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-12/u-s-consumer-sentiment-drops-to-10-year-low-on-inflation-fears">a decade low</a> in November and an expectation of a more than 4.9% price increase in 2022, also the highest since the Great Recession. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-skipping-holiday-shopping-season-inflation-deloitte-2021-11">a recent Deloitte survey</a> found that 70% of shoppers are expecting higher prices throughout the <keyword id="12030581" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="holidays" source="Orion">holidays</keyword>.It's quite a grumpy outlook in the middle of an economy that seems to be doing great. President Joe Biden has already led the US through one of its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-economy-comparison-gdp-growth-scorecard-every-president-since-eisenhower-2021-8">strongest ever quarters of economic growth</a>, and the Senate just passed his <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-signs-infrastructure-law-social-spending-plan-struggles-2021-11">$1 trillion infrastructure bill</a>. In the labor force, hiring <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/october-jobs-report-531000-payrolls-unemployment-rate-falls-labor-market-2021-11">picked up in October</a> after slowing during the Delta wave. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-antiwork-workers-quit-dont-work-strike-better-conditions-2021-11">It's an employee's world</a> as many workers quit their jobs and demand better pay, with employers scrambling to retain them. And Americans haven't stopped buying stuff, either, sending consumer spending <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retail-sales-october-record-delta-wave-americans-spending-economic-recovery-2021-11">to a record high</a> last month.But a healing America isn't without side effects in the shape of a <keyword id="11894139" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="supply-chain-crisis" source="Orion">supply chain crisis</keyword>. As the economy reshaped itself into one based on remote work, Americans had more use for gym equipment and new TVs and less need to go to restaurants and hotels. The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retail-sales-october-record-delta-wave-americans-spending-economic-recovery-2021-11">demand outstripped supply</a> just as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-spending-goods-versus-experiences-supply-chain-crisis-2021-10">supply broke down</a>. That means higher prices and longer wait times are sticking with us as we near the end of the year, and none of it is sparking holiday cheer.As if that wasn't enough, the news of a potentially vaccine-resistant new COVID variant rattled <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword> on Black Friday, sending the Dow down as much as 1,000 points amid fears that the "reopening" trade was being swapped again for a "<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/moderna-stock-zoom-video-peloton-new-covid-variant-pfizer-biontech-2021-11">stay at home</a>" economy. This is no surprise if you have an outlook like Dr. Seuss's proverbial Grinch.<h2>Grumpy about availability and inflation</h2>Part of October's <keyword id="11893588" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="retail" source="Orion">retail</keyword> sales boom was actually preparation: Americans were already holiday <keyword id="11896038" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="shopping" source="Orion">shopping</keyword>. The behavior was abnormally proactive, well before Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. As <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-18/inflation-watch-danger-signs-lurk-in-strong-retail-sales-report">Bloomberg's Michael R. Strain wrote</a>, it's a sign that consumers are less concerned about price increases and more worried about the factors that make buying and giving holiday gifts more difficult. It's likely that high holiday demand and rising supply-chain costs could prompt companies to hike their prices, <a href="https://online.maryville.edu/business-degrees/faculty/richard-kilgore/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">professor Richard Kilgore</a>, instructor in the <a href="https://online.maryville.edu/online-bachelors-degrees/business-administration/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Online Management and Business Administration program</a> at Maryville University, told Insider. But he said holiday spending is resilient: "Consumers are often less price sensitive when it comes to making the holidays special."While some companies may run out of stock on high-demand items, Kilgore added, sales could be less impacted as consumers move to their second and third choices. Several forecasts back him up. JP Morgan <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-upgrades-fourth-quarter-gdp-growth-forecast-to-5-from-4-11637095973">upgraded</a> its expectations for economic growth in the fourth quarter, the National Retail Federation predicted <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-27/holiday-sales-to-grow-8-5-to-10-5-in-2021-retail-group-says">US holiday sales</a> surging from 8.5% to 10.5% year-over-year, and <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/357653/holiday-shopping-getting-started-brisk.aspx?utm_source=alert&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=morelink&amp;utm_campaign=syndication">Gallup</a> found that consumers plan to spend $886 on holiday gifts this year, compared to $800 in 2020. This "robust" signals strong holiday sales, Gallup said. But for lower-income shoppers who can <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/10-million-unemployed-americans-federal-unemployment-benefits-eviction-democrats-2021-9">no longer bank on pandemic relief aid</a>, inflated prices are much more of a pain point. About a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-16/inflation-set-to-spoil-holidays-for-struggling-u-s-families">third of their earnings</a> goes to essentials like food and energy, which have been <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-rising-food-prices-next-crisis-market-investing-strategy-nomura-2021-11">some of inflation's biggest victims</a>. It's eating into holiday budgets, leaving 11% of Americans with plans to not shop at all, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-skipping-holiday-shopping-season-inflation-deloitte-2021-11">per Deloitte</a>. Of this group, 65% earn less than $50,000. That's the highest share in a decade — and more than double the share in 2020, which was itself a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pandemic-christmas-most-americans-struggling-spending-2020-12">very miserable holiday</a> as people awaited delayed stimulus checks.<h2>Rich Grinch and poor Grinch</h2>The type of Grinch you are looks different depending on how rich you are. Wealthier shoppers are ready to splurge but grumbling about not getting the things they want in time. Meanwhile, less wealthy shoppers are upset they can't afford a big holiday season. It's another <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pandemic-christmas-most-americans-struggling-spending-2020-12">K-shaped Christmas</a>, but this year, shoppers are united by a persisting pessimism. The wealthy were relatively unbothered by the 2020 holiday season, and this year they're catching onto the economic misery further down the economic ladder. Economic concerns have hit a pandemic high, with <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/357617/economic-concerns-hit-pandemic-high-low-historically.aspx">70% of Americans</a> thinking the economy is getting worse, according to a <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/357617/economic-concerns-hit-pandemic-high-low-historically.aspx">separate Gallup poll</a>. However, that's still low historically, nowhere near the negative sentiment levels that plagued the years surrounding the 2008 financial crisis.<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-12/inflation-and-the-economy-americans-think-they-re-slipping-because-they-are">As Ramesh Ponnuru wrote for Bloomberg</a>, Americans have been pessimistic about the economy for much of the past 20 years. But inflation is the <a href="https://www.axios.com/consumer-price-index-october-inflation-60151fa5-0191-4b8b-9c8a-5fc43e1a47ba.html">highest it's been in 30 years</a>, and supply shortages have threatened the "just-in-time economy" of the 2000s. For many Americans, especially younger generations, these are economic problems they've yet to experience.Meanwhile, workers are grouchy because <a href="https://www.businessreport.com/business/workers-cant-find-jobs-and-employers-cant-find-workers">they can't find jobs, while employers are grouchy because they can't find workers</a>, and a historic housing crisis has <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-american-dream-changed-housing-crisis-remote-work-picket-fence-2021-11">dampened many a homeowning dream</a>. While there have been some signs that the <keyword id="11894138" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="supply-chain" source="Orion">supply chain</keyword> crisis is easing, Kilgore said it's nearly impossible to actually tell. "Improvements in situations at ports may be transient changes that simply moved unshipped inventory off docks into storage waiting for trucks to avoid those penalty fees," he said. "The bottleneck just moves to a different link in the chain."In Dr Seuss's famous children's book that brought the Grinch to the world, the grumpy green character was ultimately transformed by holiday cheer. Americans will need a lot of that to turn around their feelings in 2021.

Everyone's a Grinch this Christmas

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div> 
It's hard to get by when you don't have a job and the price of goods is rising.
That maxim is behind the dramatically named "Misery Index," which adds together a country's unemployment and inflation rates. The higher the number, the more "miserable" your country is.
The index was created by economist Arthur Okun, and it was an <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/misery-index.asp">extremely popular measurement</a> during the Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan presidencies.
There have been some criticisms of the misery index. Extensive studies have shown that <a href="http://www.people.hbs.edu/rditella/papers/AERHappyInflation.pdf">unemployment influences happiness</a> (or rather, unhappiness) significantly more than inflation.
Still, few would argue that both unemployment and inflation are bad when they are very high.
Bloomberg's Alex Tanzi compiled a list of the "most miserable countries" in the world according to this index. We highlight the 21 countries that scored 10 or higher.
Some famously miserable countries are noticeably absent from this list. Bloomberg left them off because either the unemployment rate or inflation rate (or both) were absent or dated. But we thought we'd share them with you anyway.

The 21 Most Miserable Countries In The World

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Carlos Garcia Rawlins/ReutersVenezuelan soldiers replace incandescent light bulbs with energy saving bulbs in a house in Caracas March 8, 2010. Chavez has promised to install thermoelectric plants with a capacity of at least 4,000 megawatts this year as Venezuela gets dangerously close to a major collapse in generation because of falling water levels at its main hydroelectric dam reservoirs. Government rationing plans and rolling blackouts in parts of the country have so far failed to significantly reduce electricity consumption in Venezuela, among the top regional energy consumers.</div></div></div>Venezuela's president has a new plan to address the country's energy problems: change the time zone."I'm going to modify the time zone in Venezuela starting on May 1 to help save electricity," Maduro said in a national address on Thursday, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-14/maduro-orders-time-zone-change-to-battle-venezuela-power-crisis">according to Bloomberg News</a>.He didn't say whether time will spring forward or fall backward, but added that he will explain the plan in the coming days.For what it's worth, his predecessor Hugo Chavez changed the time zone by 30 minutes back in December 2007.Maduro also announced that 15 shopping malls in the country will be subject to electricity rationing, adding that they failed to supply their own generators, despite being told to do so five years ago, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-energy-idUSKCN0XB2VB">according to Reuters</a>.And, on top of all that, he declared Monday, April 18 a holiday - also in an effort to save energy.These latest decrees follow several other unorthodox strategies to save energy. Maduro previously declared that public workers will have all Fridays off through May, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-14/maduro-orders-time-zone-change-to-battle-venezuela-power-crisis">forced a week-long</a> break for Easter, and, according to Reuters, "raised eyebrows by urging women to cut usage of hair dryers."Currently, many people in Venezuela are suffering from water and electricity cuts amid a prolonged drought.The country's largest hydroelectric dam, the Guri dam complex, which provides nearly <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-energy-idUSKCN0XB2VB">two-thirds</a> of the country's power needs and <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-14/maduro-orders-time-zone-change-to-battle-venezuela-power-crisis">75%</a> of the power to the capital city Caracas, has seen water levels drop to record lows."If water levels at the dam fall below 240 meters above sea level, the government may have to shut down the plant to avoid damaging turbines - a move that would inevitably lead to increased rationing," Bloomberg's Andrew Rosati and Jose Orozco <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-14/maduro-orders-time-zone-change-to-battle-venezuela-power-crisis">reported</a>. "According to the latest official figures, the level currently stands at about 243 meters."In the larger scheme of things, things in Venezuela have not been particularly great as its economy has been crushed by lower oil prices. The country relies on the commodity for about 95% of its export revenue.IMF figures <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/where-opec-members-stand-after-production-freeze-2016-02">suggest</a> that Venezuela's GDP contracted by a record 10% in 2015 and is set to decline 8% in 2016. Inflation is expected to rise from a world high of 275% in 2015 to a mind-blowing 720% in 2016.Due to this insanely high inflation, Venezuela is <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-04/these-are-the-world-s-most-miserable-economies">likely to once again</a> be the most "miserable" country in the world. Notably, Arthur Okun's "Misery Index" adds together a country's unemployment and inflation rates. The higher the number, the more "miserable" a country.Given the situation, many economists and analysts think that the country is looking at another rough year."Perhaps no country in OPEC has suffered such a severe economic shock amid the collapse in oil prices as Venezuela," wrote <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/where-opec-members-stand-after-production-freeze-2016-02">RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft back in February</a>. "Given these severe headwinds, we believe that Venezuela's economic fortunes - and its ability to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe - will largely hinge on whether China continues to open its checkbook to the country this year," Croft added. <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-14/maduro-orders-time-zone-change-to-battle-venezuela-power-crisis">Check out the full story at Bloomberg</a>. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/science-behind-why-you-should-not-pop-your-pimples-acne-dermatology-2016-4">The science behind why you shouldn't pop your pimples</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="tqMDFpMjE6PO8_mQr4gBWt0uPdf4FBhK" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

Venezuela has a crazy new plan to save electricity

<div style="float: right; margin: 15px 0 20px 20px;"><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2"><a href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/category/chart-of-the-day"> </a></td></tr><tr><td><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/chart-of-the-day"></a></td><td><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-could-expand-for-another-5-years-2014-8"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div>Government borrowing rates continue to tumble around the world.
"Global bond yields have taken over the entire financial chatter this morning," Brean Capital's Peter Tchir said earlier today.
According to Bloomberg, the yield on the German 10-year bund fell to a record low of 0.909%. Spain's 10-year yield fell to 2.083%.
"Rates on similar-maturity Austrian, Belgian, Dutch, Finnish, Irish and Italian debt also fell to all-time lows," reported <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-27/euro-area-bond-gains-push-yields-from-italy-to-france-to-records.html">Bloomberg's David Goodman and Lukanyo Mnyanda</a>.
"Not only are yields still making new lows day in and day out, but now some spreads to Bunds are also making new lows," said Societe Generale's Vincent Chaigneau. "The rally over the past few weeks was easy to call, given that the catch-up on Bund yields was well deserved after several silly scares on peripherals (euro elections, BES etc.). But now we are in new territory, as spreads return to lows last seen in 2009-2010 in some cases. Our view though remains for the buy momentum to continue."
When bond yields fall, bond prices are going up.
"We stand ready to adjust our policy stance further," said Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB).
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mario-draghi-speaks-at-jackson-hole-2014-8">Draghi made this statement on Friday</a> at the Kansas City Fed's Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. His speech came after the eurozone economies reported a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/euro-zone-gdp-2014-8">string of of disappoint reports</a> suggesting that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/euro-pmi-reports-signal-slowing-2014-8">growth had stalled</a> and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/europe-inflation-expectations-decline-2014-8">prices were falling</a>.
Based on recent moves in interest rates, it appears bond traders are betting more monetary stimulus is coming.
"Draghi, who has often been able to get away with just words probably needs to act this time, as the move in the past week has been extreme and seems like it will require real action," Tchir said.
Earlier Wednesday, we learned that Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index fell to 8.6 from 8.9 a month ago, and France's INSEE business confidence index fell to 91 from 93. Both were worse than economists' already pessimistic expectations.
"More misery from leading indicators in France," said Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen. "Even on the back of two quarters of stagnation in France, we don't see much evidence of a pick up in the current quarter. Based on values for July and August, the manufacturing survey is now down a depressing 2.5% q/q in the third quarter, consistent with another disappointing GDP print. "
What's interesting is that U.S. Treasury yields, while low at 2.36%, continue to be much higher than yields in other parts of the developed world. In other words, those European bonds actually make U.S. bonds look cheap, meaning that yields have room to go lower.
Earlier this month, DoubleLine Funds' <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jeffrey-gundlach-on-rates-2014-8">Jeffrey Gundlach told Business Insider</a> that we could see U.S. Treasury yields rise if European yields were to rally. However, he reminded us that the European economy continues to be in much worse shape.
If anything, Europe is on the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/eurozone-still-in-recession-2014-7">brink of deflation</a>, which means rates could actually go lower.
<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div>

You Searched For "bloomberg misery index" and got 9 results

US suffers world's biggest jump in economic misery as COVID cases surge

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The misery index: An economic indicator that measures the financial well-being of the a country's citizens

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Rising wages are the biggest threat to earnings and 'corporate misery' is correlated to higher labor costs, Bank of America says

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Hindenburg Effect: Last 9 days wipe out gains clocked by Adani Group in 2022

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Everyone's a Grinch this Christmas

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The 21 Most Miserable Countries In The World

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Venezuela has a crazy new plan to save electricity

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Government Bond Yields Around The World Are Making New Lows Day In And Day Out

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