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In an unusual development, a teenager in British Columbia has become the first person in <keyword id="19896882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="canada" source="keywords">Canada</keyword> to test positive for <keyword id="95867" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bird-flu" source="Orion">bird flu</keyword>, the provincial health department announced. The youth is currently receiving treatment in a children's hospital for the <keyword id="23932297" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="H5-avian-influenza" source="keywords">H5 avian influenza</keyword> strain, with the source of infection and potential contacts under active investigation.<br /><br />According to British Columbia Health Officer Dr Bonnie Henry, the infection likely came from an animal source. "This is a rare event," she noted. "We are conducting a thorough investigation to fully understand the source of exposure here in BC."<br />  <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="109603354" title="Bird flu could jump to humans any day. A former surgeon general says it feels like 2020 again." mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Bird flu, most commonly found in wild birds and poultry, can sometimes infect humans through close contact or contaminated environments. Scientists have voiced growing concerns as avian flu has recently been detected in mammals, and a recent outbreak in US cattle has added to fears. Although human infections remain rare, experts worry that an increased rate of transmission could eventually lead to a virus mutation that allows human-to-human spread.<br /><br />The Canadian case comes shortly after another unusual incident in the United States, where a person in Missouri tested positive for bird flu without any known exposure to infected animals. While cases among farmworkers are known, these isolated incidents without clear animal sources add to the need for vigilance.<br /><br />Despite the isolated cases, there has been no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission of bird flu to date, which would otherwise signify a more serious public health risk. For now, health authorities in Canada are closely monitoring the situation to prevent further spread.<br />  <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="114819490" title="Bird flu was detected in a pig, and it could be a tipping point threatening more human transmission" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div><br />

Bird flu alert in Canada as teen tests positive; officials launch investigation

New York [US], April 5 (ANI): The <keyword id="10561122" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bird-flu-pandemic" source="Orion">bird flu pandemic</keyword> with the potential to be "<keyword id="21202249" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="100-times-worse" source="Orion">100 times worse</keyword> than COVID" may be on the horizon after a rare human case was discovered in Texas, experts have warned, the New York Post reported on Thursday.<br /><br />The <keyword id="21202246" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="H5N1-avian-flu" source="keywords">H5N1 avian flu</keyword> has spread rapidly since a new strain was detected in 2020 affecting wild birds in every state, as well as in commercial poultry and backyard flocks. But the recent cases detected in mammals, with cattle herds across four states becoming infected and on Monday, federal health officials announced that a dairy worker in Texas caught the virus.<br /><br />"This virus [has been] on the top of the pandemic list for many, many years and probably decades," Suresh Kuchipudi, a <keyword id="95867" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bird-flu" source="Orion">bird flu</keyword> researcher from Pittsburgh, said at a recent panel discussing the issue, the New York Post reported citing the Daily Mail.<br /><br />"And now we're getting dangerously close to this virus potentially causing a pandemic."<br /><br />He noted that the <keyword id="565908" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="H5N1-virus" source="Orion">H5N1 virus</keyword> has already been detected in species throughout the world and "has shown the ability to infect a range of mammalian hosts, including humans."<br /><br />"So therefore, in my view, I think this is a virus that has the greatest pandemic threat [that is] playing out in plain sight and globally present," Kuchipudi said.<br /><br />John Fulton, a pharmaceutical industry consultant for vaccines and the founder of Canada-based BioNiagara who organized the meeting, also expressed his concerns, the Mail reports, the New York Post reported. <br /><br />"This appears to be 100 times worse than COVID -- or it could be if it mutates and maintains its high case fatality rate," he said. "Once it's mutated to infect humans, we can only hope that the [fatality rate] drops."<br /><br />Around 52 per cent of humans who have contracted H5N1 since 2003 have died, according to the World Health Organization. For comparison, COVID currently kills less than 0.1% of those it infects -- though at the start of the pandemic, the fatality rate was around 20 per cent.<br /><br />Symptoms of the bird flu are similar to those of other flus, including cough, body aches and fever, the New York Post reported. Some people may not develop noticeable symptoms, but others can develop severe, life-threatening pneumonia.<br /><br />The dairy worker in Texas who was infected has reported "eye redness (consistent with conjunctivitis)" as their only symptom, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noted.<br /><br />"The patient was told to isolate and is being treated with an antiviral drug for [the] flu," the CDC said.<br /><br />The agency and "the whole US government is taking this situation very seriously," CDC Director Mandy Cohen told the Washington Post. She maintained that the virus does not pose much of a risk to the general public, noting that the dairy worker was in direct contact with infected cattle, and the US Department of Agriculture has said there are currently no changes that would make it more transmissible to humans. <br /><br />"While cases among humans in direct contact with infected animals are possible, this indicates that the current risk to the public remains low," the department said in a statement over the weekend.<br /><br />But the fact that the virus has been found in cattle could mean it is starting to mutate, Cohen told the Washington Post.<br /><br />"We had not seen avian flu in cattle prior to last week. That is new," she said. "It is a reservoir for [the] virus to circulate and potentially change."<br /><br />If the virus does mutate enough to infect humans, it could spread rapidly, the European Food Safety Authority warned on Wednesday, according to Fox News.<br /><br />"If avian A [H5N1] influenza viruses acquire the ability to spread efficiently among humans, large-scale transmission could occur due to the lack of immune defences against H5 viruses in humans," the Food Safety Authority said.<br /><br />To prevent any potential spread, the US is already testing components used to create a vaccine for the virus, and two candidate vaccine viruses appear to be well-matched to protect against H5N1, the Washington Post reports.<br /><br />White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre also said the Biden administration is monitoring the threat.<br /><br />"We take the health and safety of the American people seriously," she said at her briefing on Wednesday. "It is very important to this president. Our top priority is to keep communities healthy, safe and informed." <br /><br />

Scientists warn of bird flu pandemic that could be '100 times worse' than COVID after rare human case found in US

<ul class="summary-list"><li>TikTok-famous emu Emmanuel recently contracted avian flu, its owner revealed.</li><li>She's since been posting photos of herself kissing and cuddling Emmanuel, which alarmed experts.</li></ul><p>Experts are taking to Twitter to express concern that the caretaker of a TikTok-famous emu has been posting photos and videos kissing and cuddling the animal <a href="https://www.insider.com/emmanuel-dont-do-it-tiktok-emu-avian-flu-2022-10">while he has avian influenza</a>, which is transmissible to humans and can be deadly.</p><p>Emmanuel the emu, who lives on <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@knucklebumpfarms/video/7118102996201917739?referer_url=www.insider.com%2Femmanuel-dont-do-it-tiktok-emu-avian-flu-2022-10&amp;refer=embed&amp;embed_source=70772374%2C70772379%2C120009725%2C120008483%3Bnull%3Bembed_blank&amp;referer_video_id=7118102996201917739">Knuckle Bump Farms</a> in South Florida, <a href="https://www.insider.com/emmanuel-the-emu-goes-viral-for-interrupting-caretakers-videos-2022-7">gained fame on TikTok</a> earlier this year after various videos showed him walking into frame and interrupting his caretaker Taylor Blake while she filmed videos with other animals.</p><p><a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@knucklebumpfarms/video/7118102996201917739?">Many</a> <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@knucklebumpfarms/video/7120270307348253995">received</a> millions of views and Blake's stern response to the bird — "Emmanuel, don't do it!" — <a href="https://www.insider.com/emmanuel-the-emu-goes-viral-for-interrupting-caretakers-videos-2022-7">became a viral catchphrase</a> among fans.</p><p>On October 16, <a href="https://twitter.com/hiitaylorblake/status/1581434481533014017?s=20&amp;t=pt5gG3fdBJoDu62zamTCZg">Blake revealed on Twitter</a> that a "massive tragedy" had befallen the farm after wild birds infected their domesticated birds with avian influenza.</p><p>She wrote, "Our farm was heavily impacted by wild geese bringing in AI, and we lost 99% of the birds on our farm."</p><p>Emmanuel was one of the birds who had <a href="https://twitter.com/hiitaylorblake/status/1581434500042477568?s=20&amp;t=ayPCneFCFTXioGtR19mQHw">contracted avian influenza</a> but <a href="https://twitter.com/hiitaylorblake/status/1581434514164789249?s=20&amp;t=ayPCneFCFTXioGtR19mQHw">survived</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/hiitaylorblake/status/1582165686826471424?s=20&amp;t=ayPCneFCFTXioGtR19mQHw">is now stable</a>, Blake said on <a href="https://twitter.com/hiitaylorblake/status/1581434519370231809?s=20&amp;t=ayPCneFCFTXioGtR19mQHw">Twitter</a>. She has since been <a href="https://twitter.com/hiitaylorblake/status/1582736060454383619?s=20&amp;t=RsOlPvd8WI2v5z8k3QVfvA">sharing updates on his condition</a>, as well as photos and videos of Emmanuel, some of which show her <a href="https://twitter.com/hiitaylorblake/status/1582126840898256896?s=20&amp;t=RsOlPvd8WI2v5z8k3QVfvA">touching</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/hiitaylorblake/status/1581656348194111488?s=20&amp;t=RsOlPvd8WI2v5z8k3QVfvA">cuddling</a>, and <a href="https://twitter.com/hiitaylorblake/status/1581439221013020672?s=20&amp;t=RsOlPvd8WI2v5z8k3QVfvA">kissing him.</a></p><p>In response, doctors and experts have expressed concerns over human infection of avian influenza.</p><p>"Being face to face with a bird w avian flu is a bad idea – this is how zoonotic transmissions occur, this is why entire farms cull sick birds. We live with the threat of pandemic flu," Dr. Boghuma Kabisen Titanji, a global health and infectious disease researcher at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia, <a href="https://twitter.com/Boghuma/status/1581610783162527744?s=20&amp;t=icVhefDDSxzeJPyjixTfDw">tweeted in response to Blake's thread.</a></p><p>Dr. Angela Rasmussen, a virologist and research scientist at the <a href="https://twitter.com/VIDOInterVac">Vaccine and Infection Disease Organization</a> in Canada, <a href="https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1581747024088928257?s=20&amp;t=Y1ZVsR5pXI5m482lUVWxVA">tweeted</a>, "If your emu (or any bird) has avian influenza, do not kiss it. Do not cuddle with it. Do not touch it. Bird flu is extremely dangerous to humans and other animals. And it sounds harsh, but to prevent its spread, birds that get avian flu should be euthanized."</p><p>Rasmussen <a href="https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1581774594918477824?s=20&amp;t=ZnGFyRTbKsDL5TjFpubJ_w">also wrote</a> that she "screamed" when she saw a photo of Blake kissing Emmanuel.</p><p>Both threads received over 6,000 likes each. <a href="https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1581617914100097024?s=20&amp;t=ayPCneFCFTXioGtR19mQHw">Scientists,</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/DougSReed/status/1582003435628466176?s=20&amp;t=dqQkvN1Q_V3Q1N6IXBKd-g">academics,</a> and other <a href="https://twitter.com/straterize/status/1581795108462071809?s=20&amp;t=ayPCneFCFTXioGtR19mQHw">Twitter users</a> have <a href="https://twitter.com/darthanddogs/status/1581794575156334592">also</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/PrancingPapio/status/1583067928479428609">criticized</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/aggieloveseggs/status/1581867149525540865">Blake</a> for the <a href="https://twitter.com/kholerakardash/status/1581439721338990592?s=20&amp;t=ayPCneFCFTXioGtR19mQHw">close contact</a>. </p><p>According to the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-in-humans.htm">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)</a>, avian influenza (or bird flu) does not usually infect people although it can happen in rare cases. It states this occurs "most often after unprotected contact with infected birds or surfaces contaminated with bird flu viruses." </p><p>The World Health Organization states that <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-E000111">a total of 864 cases and 456 deaths</a> from bird flu transmission were reported worldwide between 2003 and March 2022.</p><p>In response to the backlash, <a href="https://twitter.com/hiitaylorblake/status/1581677557761835008?s=20&amp;t=gajMgWv2HlqBGtTUni6EOg">Blake tweeted:</a> "We are constantly sanitizing and washing our hands, clothes and bodies. Emmanuel freaks out whenever we approach him wearing a mask. He does not understand and it is extremely stressful on him. I am not going to put more stress on him."</p> <p>She added that the farm was in the midst of a <a href="https://twitter.com/hiitaylorblake/status/1581677555500822528?s=20&amp;t=gajMgWv2HlqBGtTUni6EOg">150-day quarantine</a>, and that she and her girlfriend have not left since the outbreak. </p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/hiitaylorblake/status/1581677552586067969?s=20&amp;t=gajMgWv2HlqBGtTUni6EOg">Blake said</a> she has "taken every precaution recommended by the FDA."</p><p>The FDA signposts the <a href="https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/defend-the-flock-program/dtf-biosecurity">biosecurity measures developed by the US Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service</a>. In order to reduce the risk of infectious diseases for both animals and people, it states that farmers should wash hands before and after contact, wear protective clothing, and have disinfectant footbaths for anyone coming into contact with the poultry.</p><p>Avian influenza was <a href="https://myfwc.com/news/all-news/hpai-222/">detected in Florida</a>, where Blake's farm is located, in January and has <a href="https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/newsroom/stakeholder-info/stakeholder-messages/animal-health-news/hpai-final-ea">also been found in several other states</a>, including Kentucky, New York, Virginia, Delaware, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, and Nebraska.</p><p><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-in-humans.htm#:~:text=Although%20avian%20(bird)%20influenza%20(,disease%20that%20resulted%20in%20death.">According to the CDC</a>, avian flu in humans can range in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death.</p><p>Blake did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.</p><p><a href="https://www.insider.com/culture"><strong>For more stories like this, check out coverage from Insider's Digital Culture team here.</strong></a></p>

Experts are warning the owner of a TikTok-famous emu against kissing and cuddling the bird after she said he had avian flu, calling it 'extremely dangerous'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China has reported an outbreak of the deadly H5N1 bird flu in Hunan province, an area that lies on the southern border of the province where the coronavirus emerged, the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048566/china-reports-outbreak-deadly-bird-flu-among-chickens-hunan">South China Morning Post</a> reported.</li><li>Although no human cases have been reported in the outbreak yet, the illness is deadlier than the coronavirus and SARS. </li><li>It's difficult to transmit the bird flu from person-to-person, but the mortality rate of the disease is about 60%.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul><p>In the shadow of the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/wuhan-coronavirus">Wuhan coronavirus</a> outbreak, a lesser-known, but deadlier disease has emerged in a province near the center of the virus. </p><p>According to the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048566/china-reports-outbreak-deadly-bird-flu-among-chickens-hunan">South China Morning Post</a>, China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported an outbreak of the often-fatal H5N1 bird flu in thousands of chickens in the Hunan province, which sits on the southern border of the Hubei province, the center of the coronavirus.</p><p>"The farm has 7,850 chickens, and 4,500 of the chickens have died from the contagion. Local authorities have culled 17,828 poultry after the outbreak," read a statement by China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on February 1.</p><p>There are no reported human cases of the H5N1 avian flu, according to SCMP, and transmission of the disease to humans is difficult. Nearly all cases of the avian flu infection in people have been associated with "close contact with infected live or dead birds, or H5N1-contaminated environments," according to the <a href="https://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/avian_influenza/h5n1_research/faqs/en/">World Health Organization</a>. </p><p>However, the outbreak is a cause for concern because the contagion is often fatal, with a 60% mortality rate among infected humans - that's even deadlier than SARS or the coronavirus. Additionally, the H5N1 bird flu can cause severe respiratory illness, including pneumonia, and neurological changes such as an altered mental state or seizures.</p><p>"If the H5N1 virus were to change and become easily transmissible from person to person while retaining its capacity to cause severe disease, the consequences for public health could be very serious," a statement from WHO read. </p><p>The <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h5n1-virus.htm">Center for Disease Control and Prevention</a> echoed concerns of the H5N1 bird flu for its "pandemic potential" due to the volatility of flu viruses.</p><p>"Flu viruses are constantly changing and animal <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/flu">flu viruses</a> can change such that they may gain the ability to infect people easily and spread among people, causing a pandemic," read a statement from the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h5n1-virus.htm">CDC.</a></p><p>Like the coronavirus, the H5N1 avian flu was first detected in geese in China in 1996. The first human cases of the contagion occurred in 1997 amid a poultry outbreak in Hong Kong. The most recent case was reported in January 2014 from an individual who had recently returned to Canada from China.</p><p>"To date, there have not been any reports of HPAI Asian H5N1 virus infections in people in the United States and Asian H5N1 has never been detected in US birds or poultry," the CDC clarified. </p><p>The news of this secondary outbreak comes as China grapples with containing the coronavirus outbreak in its borders, which has <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-virus-everything-we-know-deadly-2019-ncov-wuhan-spread-2020-1">killed over 900 in China and infected 40,000 globally</a>. According to <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/10/804387615/china-reports-nearly-100-deaths-in-a-single-day-from-coronavirus">NPR</a>, nearly 100 deaths were reported on Sunday alone, the highest single-day death toll since the outbreak emerged two months ago.</p><p>China's swift report of this secondary outbreak may be due to criticism of its slow response to the coronavirus. Although the first human case of the illness was discovered in December, the country did not announce the threat of the outbreak to citizens or world leaders until January. </p><p>As China <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-inside-new-hospital-panic-built-contain-outbreak-2020-2">races to build new hospitals</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/no-food-crowded-hospitals-wuhan-first-week-in-coronavirus-quarantine-2020-1">replenish food</a>, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-outbreak-disruption-medical-supplies-respirator-masks-2020-2">test kits, and other critical medical supplies</a> to combat coronavirus, another health threat would further stress already strained health care resources.</p><ul class="read-more-links"><li>Read more:</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-virus-everything-we-know-deadly-2019-ncov-wuhan-spread-2020-1">The Wuhan coronavirus has killed more than 900 people and infected over 40,000. Here's everything we know about the outbreak.</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-cities-ghost-towns-on-first-working-day-amid-coronavirus-2020-2">China's biggest cities looked like ghost towns on the first day back to work after Lunar New Year, as the deadly coronavirus continues to spread</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indian-crew-coronavirus-quarantined-diamond-princess-2020-2">'Soon we will all be infected': Indian crew on quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship pleads for help as coronavirus cases spike</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-vaccine-could-take-years-timeline-and-cost-2020-2">The Wuhan coronavirus has now claimed more lives than SARS. Top scientists told us it could take years and cost $1 billion to make a vaccine to fight the epidemic.</a></li></ul>

Amidst the coronavirus outbreak, China is now also fighting deadly bird flu

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><ul class="summary-list"><li>Migrating shorebirds stop each spring in New Jersey to feast on horseshoe-crab eggs. The birds have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/pandemic">lots of flu strains in their guts</a>.</li><li>Researchers swab the birds' butts (the technical term is "cloacas") and pick up their droppings in search of clues about potential future pandemics.</li><li>A pandemic flu that hops from birds to humans could quickly circulate around the world, killing hundreds of millions of people before scientists develop a vaccine.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.</a></li></ul><p>CAPE MAY, NEW JERSEY - On a May morning, birders and scientists descended on Reed's Beach with gunpowder and a cannon. They hid in the grass and mud, waiting for the right moment to shoot. </p><p>Hours passed as the sun drifted into the middle of the sky, then finally the rifle powder ignited, and the thud sent more than 100 stunned shore birds into a frenzy. They stretched their wings to soar into the air, then quickly tumbled to the ground, trapped in wide nets that had been shot from the cannon.</p><p>In an instant, dozens of people emerged from hiding spots in the beach dunes, rushing through the sand to pick the birds up. A few flu researchers went straight for the creatures' back ends.</p><p>Ths wasn't part of a war reenactment or violent uprising. It was a meticulously crafted plan to help scientists fight a dangerous yet almost invisible enemy: a potential flu pandemic that could originate from the guts of migrating birds.</p><p>Traveling birds are the primordial hosts of influenza viruses, which means they can harbor deadly flu strains that could get transmitted to chickens, pigs, and people. Every pandemic flu the world has ever seen has come from birds like these.</p><p>On the beach, the goal is to take a close look at these birds' butts and poop in the hopes of gathering information that could help scientists prevent the next deadly flu pandemic. This particular stretch of beach is especially good for bird research, since of thousands of tiny, well-traveled shorebirds - each small enough to fit into the palm of your hand - flock there during migration to gorge themselves on the protein rich-eggs of <a href="https://www.fws.gov/northeast/pdf/horseshoe.fs.pdf">horseshoe crabs</a>.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><p>It's a ritual scientists have participated in every May for over three decades, when migratory birds stop along the Jersey Shore as they journey north from South America. For about three to four days, as the birds feast, researchers swab their throats and butts (technically they're called "cloacas") and collect hundreds of poop samples.</p><p>Their aim is to uncover clues about what the next dangerous bird flu might look like - while there's still time to prepare.</p><h2>We are woefully unprepared for the next pandemic</h2><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><p>The field work on Reed's Beach helped researchers discover that birds are <a href="https://www.stjude.org/research/initiatives/influenza-research-surveillance/center-excellence-influenza-research-surveillance/ceirs-project-summaries.html#slide-19aceef50ad5d0c052d043d0554057e376907f3adff72f30a0e642d0fa31940e-19">the primary, natural hosts for pandemic flu</a>.</p><p>The last big pandemic flu - the H1N1 virus nicknamed the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Ffeatures%2F1918-flu-pandemic%2Findex.html">Spanish flu</a> - killed 50 million people in 1918. American soldiers brought the Spanish flu to the battlefields of WWI before the illness eventually spread as far as New Zealand, but it originally <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/study-revives-bird-origin-for-1918-flu-pandemic-1.14723">came from birds</a>.</p><p>Most scientists agree that the next pandemic is a matter of when, not if.  Experts think that if a pandemic flu similar to the 1918 one were to arise today, it could infect <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html">one in every three</a> people alive. Without a good vaccine to combat it, the virus could kill more than one out of every 10 humans on the planet - <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pandemic-virus-simulation-johns-hopkins-shows-vulnerability-2018-7">upwards of 900 million people</a>.</p><p>More recent pandemics include <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html">the 1957-58</a> "Asian flu;" the 1968 <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Hong-Kong-flu-of-1968">Hong Kong</a> pandemic, which <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Hong-Kong-flu-of-1968">killed at least 1 million people;</a> and the H1N1 pandemic of 2009, from which <a href="http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/06/cdc-estimate-global-h1n1-pandemic-deaths-284000">an estimated 284,000</a> died. Researchers have compelling evidence that each of those strains also came <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Asian-flu-of-1957">from bird guts</a>.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><p>The interconnected nature of our modern lives due to air travel and other daily migrations of people and food means the chance that a deadly virus could hit hard is only increasing.</p><p>"The world needs to prepare for pandemics in the same serious way it prepares for war," Bill Gates said <a href="http://epidemics.events.nejm.org/#/main">last year</a>, on the 100-year anniversary of the Spanish flu. "If history has taught us anything, it's that there will be another deadly global pandemic."</p><p>One <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pandemic-virus-simulation-johns-hopkins-shows-vulnerability-2018-7">pandemic simulation</a> developed at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security estimated that if a "moderately contagious" and "moderately lethal" virus were unleashed today, it would kill as many as 150 million people in 20 months. That's almost half of the population of the US. </p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><p>For birds, on the other hand, flu viruses are relatively benign, manifesting as gastrointestinal issues that are of little consequence to their health. The reason some flus become human-transmittable - then <span style="font-weight: 400;">proliferate around the globe, with devastating consequences - </span>while others don't remains a mystery.</p><p>"At the moment, we don't understand which ones are threats, and which ones aren't," Richard Webby, an infectious-disease expert at St Jude Children's Research Hospital who helps develop the annual flu vaccine, told Business Insider. </p><p>By studying the flu virus in birds, scientists hope to discover new strains that haven't hit humans yet and work on ways to fight those illnesses, perhaps by developing vaccines or creating <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/treatment/whatyoushould.htm">antiviral drugs</a> (like Tamiflu) that can make a case of the flu less severe.</p><h2>'About 20% of them are pooping out influenza'</h2><p>The more bird species interact with each other (in places where they congregate like markets, barns, or beaches), the more likely it is that their different flu genes will mix. More flu-virus interaction creates more opportunity for a virus to morph into a new strain capable of hopping into humans. </p><p>That's why Reed's Beach is one-of-a-kind: Up to 25 types of sea birds come together there each spring. There's the red knot, which travels <a href="https://abcbirds.org/bird/red-knot/">more than 9,000 miles</a> from the southern tip of Argentina to the Canadian Arctic, as well as ruddy turnstones on their way up from Brazil, plus sanderlings, semipalmated sandpipers, and several species of gulls. </p><p>It's a mixing ground for a hemisphere's worth of bird poop. (Similar research is done in poultry <a href="https://www.stjude.org/research/initiatives/influenza-research-surveillance/center-excellence-influenza-research-surveillance/ceirs-project-summaries.html#slide-19aceef50ad5d0c052d043d0554057e376907f3adff72f30a0e642d0fa31940e-3">markets in Bangladesh</a>, chicken and duck farms on <a href="https://bmcvetres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12917-018-1519-8">the Nile river delta</a> in <a href="https://www.stjude.org/research/initiatives/influenza-research-surveillance/center-excellence-influenza-research-surveillance/ceirs-project-summaries.html#slide-19aceef50ad5d0c052d043d0554057e376907f3adff72f30a0e642d0fa31940e-8%C2%A0">Egypt</a>, and on wild ducks in Alberta, Canada.)</p><p>"Those beautiful, healthy birds - about 20% of them are pooping out influenza," Robert Webster, a flu expert who pinpointed the Jersey shore bird hotspot in 1985, told Business Insider. "Where do so many infected birds come from? Where did they get their viruses from? We don't really know."</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><p>Flu viruses can morph in two ways. The first is via a routine process called genetic drift, in which a virus multiplies and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm">undergoes small genetic changes over time</a> as it replicates. The second happens when two viruses mix together, which can create new (and dangerous) bugs capable of infecting chickens, pigs, or people.</p><p>At least 16 different "A" influenza subtypes - the kind responsible for pandemics in humans - are found in aquatic birds (and two additional influenza A subtypes were recently discovered in bats). Researchers looking at flu strains on Reed's Beach have found close relatives of the 1918 Spanish Flu (in the H1N1 group), as well as other strains that look like the Hong Kong pandemic bug.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><p>"You're never going to know somebody had some bird flu unless they get really sick," Pamela McKenzie, a flu researcher from St. Jude Children's Research Hospital who participates in the annual bird-research frenzy on the beach, told Business Insider as she gathered poop samples.  </p><p>The birds also harbor some strains that we haven't seen in humans in over 50 years, Webster said. That means if they were to hop into people now, our immune systems would be shocked. </p><p>"We know that the H2 viruses are still there in the wild birds and they're a potential threat to humans," he said. "We are concerned that there is no immunity in the human population, or only in the elderly, and so that is why we worry about them."</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><p>If a bird flu were to break out, public-health officials have a few anti-flu weapons to deploy. Stockpiled antiviral drugs called <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra050740">neuraminidase inhibitors</a> can help, as long as they're dispensed within a couple days after a person gets sick. Otherwise, scientists would need to develop a new vaccine, but that could take months and ultimately prove ineffective if the virus morphed again before the vaccine was finished.</p><p>"Even with the very best technology that we have, it takes six months to make a new vaccine," Webster said. "And in the meantime, the virus is spread all over the world and if it's a deadly virus, it's going to kill many, many, many people."</p><p>This is another reason scientists are scrambling to develop a universal flu vaccine that would offer long-term protection against all kinds of flu, unlike the annual shot.</p><h2><strong>Trapping birds using cannons, nets, and tall grass</strong></h2><p><strong><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></strong></p><p>Trapping the birds on Reed's Beach is a multi-hour operation that can be easily foiled if the birds get startled. </p><p>Before the big cannon-shooting moment, researchers used walkie-talkies to radio to one another in different spots around the bay. Slowly, they worked together to corner the birds into a small inlet. Then after the projectile net sent the birds gently toppling to the ground, the flu researchers unpacked their vials and swabs.</p><p>In addition to the live swabs, researchers also gathered about 600 poop samples from the beach using long-stemmed Q-tips. </p><p>None of these scientists seemed too concerned about coming into contact with a potential killer flu on the beach - they don't even wear gloves while picking up poop samples (though they do when swabbing the birds' cloacas). Instead, they simply maintain good hygiene on the sand and off, knowing they're more likely to get the flu from touching a door handle or sitting next to a sick person.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><p>Once all the samples were packed in coolers and ready to go to the lab, the research crew left the birds alone on the beach. By the end of May, most of the birds had flown north; their dedicated beach area re-opened to the public in June. </p><p>In labs, researchers are now conducting DNA analyses to find out which influenza strains were circulating on the beach this year, how that compares to years past, and whether there was any new flu. That work will take about six months.</p><p>So far, after years of field research, scientists have gained some clues about which genes make an influenza strain more likely to be harmful and better able to jump from birds to poultry, pigs, and people. The new genetic information from this year will become part of that catalogue of three decades' worth of flu-gene segments, enlarging the database that helps researchers better track - and potentially fight - pandemic flu.</p><p>"You're looking for key components of the genetic sequence that make a gene more dangerous," McKenzie said.</p><p>But the scientists said their research is far from done.</p><p>"We would like to know if we can predict which are the viruses in the wild birds that are a real threat to either pigs, poultry or humans," Webster said. "We don't know the answers, but as we look at the genome of the viruses that are in the wild birds and in humans and so on, the goal is that in the future, we can make predictions of which viruses are really dangerous." </p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><p>That research cycle will start again next May, when both birds and bird-catchers return to the Jersey shore. </p><p>"Ultimately we dream about having a universal vaccine," Webster said. "In a perfect situation, we would have four or five anti-viral drugs and a universal vaccine. Then I could die happy." </p>

Bill Gates says a devastating 'quirk of nature' could kill 30 million people in a year. Researchers are fighting that threat by studying bird butts.

<p class="drop-cap">When Chengdu resident Tian Hao, 45, visits his neighborhood supermarket, he stays away from the best-looking fruit and vegetables.</p><p>"If they are big or beautiful, they're not normal. If they have no holes or marks on them or their roots, we avoid them," he told Insider. "Sometimes, the vegetables they put on display still have pesticides and chemicals on them. It takes an experienced eye to know what you can buy there."</p><p>His distrust of commercial produce, like that of millions of people in <keyword id="11892748" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="china" source="Orion">China</keyword>, can be traced back to a single event in 2008. That year, China discovered that local milk products for babies had been laced with melamine, an industrial chemical used in plastics and fertilizers.<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/03/world/asia/03milk.html?_r=0"> Nearly 300,000 infants</a> fell ill after consuming the contaminated milk, and at least 50 of them died from kidney stones.</p><p>Beijing responded to the tragedy with life imprisonment for several milk executives, forced resignations of seven municipal officials, and the executions of a dairy farmer and a milk salesman.</p><p>As China's <keyword id="12440455" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="middle-class" source="Orion">middle class</keyword> continues to grow at an astonishing rate — in 2000, only 3% of the country was considered middle class, where now nearly 50% of the population falls into a middle-class income bracket — so has its concern around <keyword id="11894142" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="food" source="Orion">food</keyword> quality.</p><p>Especially as a deluge of food scandals continue to roil the country. While state media has debunked <a href="http://m.news.cctv.com/2018/07/30/ARTItpK4PRhiSmof9h8Q6SId180730.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">photoshopped images of chickens with six wings and eight legs</a>, China's middle class still has reason to be skeptical. Scandals – including hawkers <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/10/28/you-may-never-eat-street-food-in-china-again-after-watching-this-video/">mixing raw sewage with waste fat</a> from slaughterhouses to sell as cooking oil, and <a href="http://m.iqilu.com/pcarticle/2574986" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reports</a> that some boba tea pearls had been made from leather and rubber bits – leave a bad taste in many mouths.</p><p>The regular onslaught of food safety issues means that even 13 years after the milk <keyword id="12243236" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="scandal" source="Orion">scandal</keyword>, many Chinese limit themselves to buying just a few vegetables and rice at the supermarket.</p><p>Tian, who works at a social agency, said he rarely visits his local grocery store these days.</p><p>He's one of the thousands across China who now orders produce directly from small-time rural farmers while trying their best to avoid the dubious national supply chain. </p><p>Every week, boxes and baskets arrive at Tian's apartment laden with supplies, including whole plucked chickens, eggs, tomatoes, cucumbers, sweet potatoes, or lentils, all grown or reared in villages just a few hours outside the city. </p><div type="image" title="Left: Zhao Ping holds a basket of vegetables. Right: Zhao Ping's eggs arrive in a minivan." height="1113" width="2227" msid="88687454" hostid="261"></div><p>Buying direct is more expensive than shopping at traditional wet markets or supermarkets. Where a market chicken in Chengdu typically costs around $8<strong>, </strong>one farmer charges Tian up to $28 for a chicken. But he feels the expense is worth it, especially when it comes to providing for his 13-year-old daughter.</p><p>"When she was born, I started paying attention to what we're eating," he said. "Quality of our food is a big concern for the middle class in China, especially if you have a family. Everyone in every city worries about this, whether you are in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, or Chengdu."</p><h2><strong>"There's no official contract. It's a relationship between us."</strong></h2><p class="drop-cap">Even brand-name goods sold in China's grocery stores are often not what they seem; knock-off and counterfeit products are ubiquitous.  </p><p>From May to November 2020, for example, China recorded more than <a href="https://www.foodnavigator-asia.com/Article/2021/08/04/China-food-safety-sweep-Government-launches-three-month-crackdown-on-online-counterfeits-fake-certifications">1,400 instances of counterfeit products</a> sold in markets.  </p><p>"Purchasing food with trusted brand names does not offer complete assurance when consumers cannot be certain of the veracity of the brand label," Gregory Veeck, a professor at Western Michigan University, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683920300225#!">wrote in a 2020 paper</a>. "Likewise, labels such as 'green,' 'local,' or 'organic' lose power when consumers cannot be sure that the product has been grown and processed as promoted."<br /><br />That's why ad hoc agreements with farmers have become increasingly popular, said Dr. Si Zhenzhong, a researcher at the Wilfrid Laurier University in Canada whose work focuses on food and agriculture in China.</p><p>The milk scandal may have been more than a decade ago, but Si said that when his research team surveyed 1,210 households in Nanjing, China, in 2015, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0920203X17742887?journalCode=cina">74%</a> said they still worried daily about food safety.</p><p>Si estimates there are more than 500 village farms in China delivering their produce to consumers' doorsteps, though the figure <a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-22/New-Money-CSA-farms-offer-inspiration-to-China-s-agriculture-QHBXoPCjIc/index.html">may actually be closer to a thousand.</a></p><p>"Consumers started organizing themselves and sourcing food from farmers they felt they could trust," said Si, who's also a co-investigator for Hungry Cities Partnership, a network of organizations assessing urban food safety in countries including China. </p><p>Part of that trust comes from the fact that many Chinese people in the city are closely related to farmers through friends or family. "A lot of Chinese urban people still have relatives in the countryside. In four decades, China tripled<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-migration-rural-return-xi-economy-11605632518"> its urbanization rate from 20% to 61%</a>. The US spent 100 years reaching that increase," said Si.</p><p>Zhao Ping, 47, who works in hotel management, used to get his pork through a pig farmer who's a distant relative of his wife. </p><p>He and seven friends would make the two-hour drive every few months to the rural town of Le Shan and visit the farm. A few days before the Chinese Lunar New Year, they'd usually each buy one pig — about a year's meat supply for Zhao's family of four — at around $3.60 per pound.</p><p>The arrangement gave him almost total control over the pig's rearing. "We would go there every few months and observe the pigs. They let us choose what the pigs eat. If we want them to eat better feed and it is more expensive, we'll pay a little extra for it," he told Insider.</p><div type="image" title="Left: A pig is slaughtered at the LeShan farm. Right: Pigs crowd the sty in the Leshan farm" height="1152" width="2304" msid="88687455" hostid="261"></div><p>But then, in 2019, a particularly virulent strain of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00362-1#:~:text=As%20of%20July%202019%2C%20there,year%20of%20the%20ASF%20pandemic.">African swine flu</a> wiped out the farmer's entire hog supply, said Zhao. His family switched from pork to poultry and now buys chickens through a farmer he found online.</p><p>He pays the farmer a deposit of $300 a year, and in return, gets to pick several hens from the village flock every month at around $11.50 a bird.</p><p>"I don't mind buying eggs from the supermarket, but not chicken," said Zhao, who said he's concerned about industrial farms potentially feeding or injecting their flocks with chemicals.</p><h2><strong>Most people can't afford to improve their food safety</strong></h2><p class="drop-cap">Tian and Zhao both recognize their grocery habits require one critical resource: money.</p><p>"I think many people have concerns, but many don't have a choice. If we want to eat safer, we have to pay more," said Tian, who spends 40% of his income on food for his family. In comparison, most Chinese urban consumers allocate around 20% of their spending on dining out and essential food ingredients, according to a <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/asia%20pacific/meet%20the%20chinese%20consumer%20of%202020/mckinseyinsightschina%20meetthe2020chineseconsumer.pdf">2020 report by management consulting firm McKinsey.</a></p><p>For most Chinese people, the big solution for their food safety concerns is to do nothing about it, said Dr. Anders Hansen, a social anthropologist from Aarhus University in Denmark who researches food supplies and culture in modern China.</p><p>"It's not much of a strategy at all, but it's like closing your eyes and saying: 'I know this problem's there, but I can't do anything about that at all," said Hansen, who spent months researching and living on small farms in northern China that sell food to cities.</p><p>"Most people cannot afford to up their food safety. They don't have the time for it because it's very time-consuming to be a food safety-wise consumer," he added.</p><p>In fact, many farmers and industrial farms overuse pesticides to protect their crop yields because they can't afford not to, said Hansen.</p><p>China leads the world in pesticides for agriculture and uses at least <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RP/visualize">four times more than the US</a> despite having <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.ARBL.HA?locations=US">38 million hectares less farmland.</a></p><p>China is also the world's largest consumer of antibiotics in agricultural production, according to the <a href="https://www.fairr.org/article/new-sustainable-food-index-finds-asian-meat-failing-emissions-antibiotics/">Farm Animal Investment Risk &amp; Return Initiative.</a> Experts say the overuse of antibiotics encourages the development of <a href="https://www.who.int/en/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance">antibiotic-resistant superbugs</a>. </p><p>"We have to feed so many people in China. If you let the pigs and chickens and vegetables grow naturally, it will take a long time and cost a lot," Tian said.</p><p>Chinese authorities have tried allaying the public's fears by<a href="https://resourcehub.bakermckenzie.com/en/resources/asia-pacific-food-law-guide/asia-pacific/china/topics/food-product-and-safety-regulation"> revamping food safety laws</a> and introducing<a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-09/Beijing-launches-track-and-trace-system-for-imported-cold-chain-food-W5cMZ5rVSM/index.html"> QR codes on products</a> to let customers track their food. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-consumerday-explainer/explainer-what-is-chinas-consumer-rights-day-idUSKBN2B403G">"World Consumer Rights Day,"</a> an annual nationwide televised event on March 15, involves naming and shaming foreign and domestic brands who have engaged in poor business practices, including food safety violations.</p><p>These measures have given more "teeth" to food safety governance, but the government still has a long way to go, said Si. Beijing is keen to implement a nationwide food traceability system, but China's <keyword id="12878210" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="food-supply" source="Orion">food supply</keyword> chain is simply too massive to keep an eye on everything.</p><p>"There are many factors involved in the current food supply chain. It sources food from multiple small [farms] and goes through a long supply chain of wholesalers and dealers and brokers," he said.</p><div type="image" title="A cook shows a box of langosteens with a QR code for tracking purposes" height="2456" width="3680" msid="88687458" hostid="261"></div><p>Then there's the disconnect between what's signed on paper and how measures are carried out on the ground. Si recalled local governments in places like Nanjing providing wet market employees with equipment to test for chemical residue in vegetables. But the staff never received the training to use the devices properly, said Si.</p><p>He and Hansen believe the government should double down on making the supply chain more transparent and look at how small farms have built personal networks and relationships with their customers.</p><p>"The buyers trust the producers because they know them. There's this whole issue of trust that needs more attention," said Si. "The government really needs to test this whole system in a way that can foster public trust."</p><p>But right now, said Hansen: "The Chinese state government's approach to food safety has nothing to do with trust. It's based on control. It's based on knowledge."</p>

Scarred by a deadly milk scandal and fearing cooking oil cut with raw sewage, China's middle class is skipping the supermarket and buying straight from the farm

<p><strong></strong></p>
<p>Good morning! Here's what you need to know for Tuesday. </p>
<p><strong>1.</strong> Greece's new prime minister Alex Tsipras, leader of the radical leftist Syriza party, is <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f5c1dbda-a547-11e4-ad35-00144feab7de.html#slide0">set to unveil his cabinet Tuesday morning</a>.</p>
<p><strong>2. </strong>The<a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/amazing-pictures-of-relentless-snow-blanketing-the-northeast-2015-1"> US East Coast is braced for a massive blizzard that could dump more than two feet</a> of snow on some areas.</p>
<p><strong>3. </strong><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/facebook-and-instagram-are-down-2015-1">Facebook and Instagram were down for around 40 minutes early Tuesday</a>, affecting users in the US, Asia, and Australia. </p>
<p><strong>4.</strong> <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/argentinas-president-wants-to-dissolve-the-countrys-spy-agency-2015-1">Argentine president Cristina Kirchner wants to dissolve the country's intelligence agency </a>on suspicions that rouge agents were behind the death of a prosecutor investigating the 1994 bombing of a Jewish centre. <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/facebook-and-instagram-are-down-2015-1"><br /></a></p>
<p><strong>5. </strong>On a three-day visit to India, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/27/world/us-and-india-share-sense-of-unease-over-china.html">US President Obama signed a joined statement with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi scolding China</a> for creating conflict neighbours over control of the South China Sea. </p>
<p><strong>6. </strong>A new Oxfam report says the<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-post-ebola-plan-needed-to-avert-double-disaster-in-west-africa-oxfam-2015-1"> three West African countries worst hit by Ebola risk a "double disaster"</a> unless a multi-million dollar plan is put in place. </p>
<p><strong>7. </strong>A preliminary report into the crash of an <a href="A%20new%20Oxfam%20report%20says%20the%20three%20West%20African%20countries%20worst%20hit%20by%20Ebola%20risk%20a%20" double20disaster20unless20a20multi-million20plan20is20put20in20place.20="">AirAsia jet will not include analysis from the black box flight recorders</a>. </p>
<p><strong>8.</strong> Survivors and several heads of state will gather at the memorial site of the former Auschwitz-Birkenau concentration camp on the<a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/afp-survivors-return-to-auschwitz-70-years-on-as-leaders-sound-alarm-2015-1"> 70th anniversary of the liberation of the Nazi death camp</a>.</p>
<p><strong>9.</strong> <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-wants-its-own-shale-gas-2015-1">Saudi Arabia's state-run oil firm Saudi Aramco </a><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-wants-its-own-shale-gas-2015-1">is investing another $7 billion (£4.64 billion) in fracking</a>, the process used to extract shale gas from underground.</span></p>
<p><strong><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">10. </span></strong><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-resident-diagnosed-with-first-north-american-case-of-h7n9-avian-flu/article22638787/">Canada has confirmed North America's first human case of the H7N9 bird flu strain</a>, which can lead to death but is not thought to be easily spread from person-to-person.</p>
<p><strong>And finally...</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/hersheys-bans-british-chocolate-2015-1">Hershey's has blocked British-made Cadbury chocolate from entering the US</a>.</p>

The 10 Most Important Things In The World Right Now

<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div>Hello! Here's what you need to know for Thursday.</span></p><p><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">1. </strong><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-greece-to-make-april-imf-payment-but-uncertainty-reigns-2015-4">Greece will make its <span>€459 million ($495 million) d</span>ebt repayment to the International Monetary Fund</a> today, although its still uncertain if the country will be able to meet its other debt obligations in the coming weeks. <strong style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span><br><br /></br></span><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">2. </strong></strong>Jurors <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-text-message-prosecutors-say-accused-boston-marathon-bomber-sent-after-the-attack-2015-4">found Dzhokhar Tsarnaev guilty Wednesday</a> on all 30 counts stemming from the April 15, 2013, Boston Marathon bombing.<br><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span><br /></span><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">3. </strong></strong></strong></strong>The <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/apple-watch-reviews-are-bad-2015-4">first reviews of the Apple Watch were released Wednesday</a>, and while critics believe the watch is a nice piece of technology, many urge customers to wait for the next version.</br></p><p><strong>4. </strong><span class="s1" style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-32227351">Canada has carried out its first airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Syria</a></span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">, after the country said it would expand its campaign against the terrorist group to outside Iraq in March.</span></p><p><strong style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">5.</strong><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"> </span><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-32227351"><span class="s2">The first Red Cross medical aid has arrived in Yemen's Aden region,</span><span class="s3"> </span></a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">which has been destroyed by Shi'ite Muslim Houthi fighters. </span></p><p><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">6.</strong><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"> A high-ranking </span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/secret-service-manager-put-on-leave-after-alleged-assault-at-headquarters/2015/04/08/cb31c412-ddf9-11e4-a500-1c5bb1d8ff6a_story.html">Secret Service supervisor has been placed on leave</a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"> after a female employee accused him of assaulting her.</span></p><p><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">7.</strong><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"> </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"></span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-japan-targets-about-20-percent-emissions-cuts-by-2030-media-2015-4">Japan is proposing to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20% from 2013 levels by 2030</a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">, which is lower than the targets  outlined by the US and the European Union for a climate summit scheduled later this year. </span></p><p><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">8.</strong></strong><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"> </span><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-us-bird-flu-outbreak-accelerates-as-wild-ducks-migrate-north-2015-4">A US outbreak of a deadly strain of bird flu is causing more concern</a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"> as migratory ducks, believed to be spreading the flus as they </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">return to Minnesota to breed after spending the winter farther south.</span></p><p><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">9. </strong>JPMorgan CEO <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-letter-to-jpmorgan-shareholders-2015-4">Jamie Dimon warned that there will be another financial crisis</a> in his annual letter to the bank's shareholders.</p><p><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">10.</strong> A new series of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/09/world/asia/new-images-show-china-literally-gaining-ground-in-south-china-sea.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;module=second-column-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news&amp;_r=0">detailed photographs show the speed and scale at which China is transforming Mischief Reef</a> in the South China Sea into an artificial island. </p><p><strong>And finally ...</strong></p><p><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/star-wars-download-itunes-amazon-april-10-force-awakens-xbox-playstation-2015-4"></a></p><p><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/jack-nicklaus-hole-in-one-masters-2015-4">75-year-old Jack Nicklaus hit a hole in one at the Masters par 3 contest.</a></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/map-how-indo-european-languages-evolved-2014-12">This Animated Map Shows How European Languages Evolved </a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="wwMjI2cjq9yWkT5MO7-968mt2D9V_wxN" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

The 10 most important things in the world right now

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div>The idea that Ebola could go airborne is terrifying.</p>
<p>Once you are infected, few diseases are more likely to kill you - and death by hemorrhagic fever, diarrhea and vomiting often accompanied by bleeding and organ failure, sounds particularly awful. At present it's hard to get infected - healthcare workers and family members caring for victims are at highest risk - but that would change <strong>if</strong> the virus were to mutate so that it could be transmitted through the air while keeping its present lethality.</p>
<p>That's a nightmare scenario.</p>
<p>But it's more the stuff of bad dreams than of reality. <strong>There's no known precedent for a virus to change in that way.</strong></p>
<p>It is theoretically possible - everything in nature changes and evolves. Some health officials highlight this as a reason to act now to contain the disease. Anthony Branbury, the UN's Ebola chief (who is not a doctor or an Ebola researcher), <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/un-chief-says-ebola-virus-could-mutate-2014-10">recently said</a> the possibility of an airborne mutation shouldn't be ruled out.</p>
<p>Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, floated the possibility of airborne Ebola in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/12/opinion/what-were-afraid-to-say-about-ebola.html">a New York Times op-ed</a> titled "What We're Afraid to Say About Ebola." He made the argument that since there are so many more Ebola cases now, more than there have ever been, the virus has more opportunities to mutate than it ever has, which makes an airborne mutation more possible.</p>
<p>Osterholm wrote "that virologists are loath to discuss [this possible mutation] openly but are definitely considering [it] in private."</p>
<p>This argument is supposed to motivate governments to act to get the virus under control before the devastation in West Africa gets worse - and that's important.</p>
<p>But virologists are willing to talk about the possibility of Ebola mutating to become an airborne virus, and they have great explanations for why<strong> there's almost no chance of that happening.</strong></p>
<h2>How Viruses Change</h2>
<p>Vincent Racaniello, a Professor of Microbiology &amp; Immunology at Columbia University's College of Physicians and Surgeons, recently <a href="http://www.virology.ws/2014/09/18/what-we-are-not-afraid-to-say-about-ebola-virus/">wrote a blog post</a> about why airborne Ebola is not something to worry about.</p>
<p>Here's the key line:</p>

<p>As Racaniello explains, HIV-1 has been around since the beginning of the 20th century. It has not ever changed its mode of transmission. Millions of people have been infected by Hepatitis C since the 1980s, and it, also, has never changed its mode of transmission. If not treated in time, rabies has an even higher mortality rate than Ebola, but it hasn't changed its mode of transmission.</p>
<p>It's not that viruses don't change and mutate - they do, frequently. When they copy their genome and replicate, improper copies mean that all kinds of new variants of the virus arise. Different strains of the flu go around the world all the time, which is why the flu vaccine is usually made to protect against a few different strains.</p>
<p>But to completely change its mode of transmission a virus would need more than a simple mutation.</p>
<p>Some scientists recently attempted to genetically engineer a supervirus in a lab, trying to take the H5N1 bird flu and make it airborne - this is a terrifying experiment, and one where <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/our-next-pandemic-could-start-from-within-2014-7">a mistake could cause a devastating pandemic</a>.</p>
<p>But even though they could genetically engineer the virus so it could be transmitted through the air, that altered other important things about the virus as well. As Racaniello explains, it lost the ability to kill.</p>
<h2>Why The Ebola Virus Is Especially Unlikely To Go Airborne</h2>
<p>A mutation of this sort is especially unlikely in a virus like Ebola, because - before it could go airborne - "a substantial amount of Ebola virus would need to start replicating in cells that reside in the throat, the bronchial tubes and possibly in the lungs," <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-fiction-the-ebola-virus-will-go-airborne/">Scientific American explains</a>.</p>
<p>But Ebola enters the human body through cuts, through the eyes, or through porous tissue in the nose or mouth. From the moment it enters the body, the virus is not designed to attack the respiratory system. It attacks blood vessels and the liver but it doesn't even cause a cough.</p>
<p>And even if the virus were to somehow move to the respiratory system, which would be a huge change, that still doesn't mean it would go airborne.</p>
<p>Viruses like avian flu that do naturally infect the throat and lungs but aren't airborne among people haven't changed to transmit through the air among humans. From Scientific American again:</p>

<p>As Scientific American explains, there isn't much evolutionary pressure for Ebola to transform into this frightening but almost totally new virus. It is, unfortunately, surviving as a species already, without anything to wipe it out.</p>
<h2>What About Pigs And Monkeys?</h2>
<p>People who fear airborne transmission of Ebola often point to <a href="http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/121115/srep00811/full/srep00811.html">a 2012 study</a> at the Public Health Agency of Canada, where macaque monkeys in a pen next to pigs intentionally infected with <em>Zaire ebolavirus</em> caught the disease. At the time, researchers thought this might mean that the pigs spread the virus to the monkeys through the air - though they noted that the monkeys themselves <strong>still seemed unable to transmit the virus that way</strong>.</p>
<p>The same scientists followed up on their research this summer and found that Ebola <a href="http://www.nature.com/srep/2014/140725/srep05824/full/srep05824.html">could not spread</a> through the air between monkeys. They <a href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/airborne-transmission-ebola-unlikely-monkey-study-shows">think that in 2012</a>, washing the pigs' cages may have splashed virus-laden blood into monkey pens, which how they caught the disease.</p>
<p>In addition, when intentionally infected with the deadly strain, pigs are affected by it in a different way than humans are - the virus attacks their lungs and throat, which is exactly what it doesn't do to us. That means that those intentionally infected pigs may have even been coughing virus-containing droplets out. But then and now, monkeys have never been shown to transmit the virus through the air.</p>
<p>And even though pigs <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/aetiology/2008/12/11/ebola-in-pigs/">have been found</a> carrying the Reston strain of Ebola, which doesn't harm humans, they don't usually catch <em style="line-height: 1.5em;">Zaire ebolavirus</em>, the deadliest strain, which is responsible for the ongoing epidemic. None have been found to have the virus in the current outbreak, and researchers <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/journey-to-yambuku-zaire-to-find-ebola-2014-8">even tested pigs</a> in the first known Ebola investigation, but found no infected swine.</p>
<h2>The Bottom Line</h2>
<p>Ebola offers plenty to worry about. It's killing thousands of people in West Africa and causing economic and humanitarian disasters. Mutations could make the virus spread slightly more easily through contact or could make it even more efficient at killing the people it infects.</p>
<p>Most experts still say that this outbreak, like all previous Ebola outbreaks, will be contained. If it isn't, then a reservoir of the virus could remain in humans, making Ebola deaths all the more common.</p>
<p>But a theoretically possible and <em>potentially</em> physically possible - though that's not confirmed - airborne mutation is so unlikely and unprecedented that it's really not the right thing to worry about now.</p>
<p>There are plenty of already-existing problems to solve.</p>

Why Ebola Probably Won't Go Airborne

<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div>IN EASTERN Sierra Leone the roads are unusually quiet. Checkpoints manned by heavily armed soldiers have blocked all movement to and from the districts of Kailahun and Kenema. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">The main road to Freetown, the capital, is travelled by just a few motorbikes and cars carrying supplies. In Kenema, a usually heaving taxi rank is all but deserted; its cabs have nowhere to go.</span></p>
<p>Ebola has hit this region hard, and not just because of the deaths it has caused. The federal government's quarantines have taken their own toll. Businesses are suffering and villagers have complained of shortages.</p>
<p>But, even after having declared a state of emergency, the government's precautions are patchy.</p>
<p>At the public hospital in Kenema, which treats Ebola patients, visitors pass in and out as they like. There are few safeguards to prevent them from catching and spreading the disease.</p>
<p>It has been more than nine months since Ebola claimed a two-year-old boy in a village in Guinea--"patient zero" in the current outbreak. But rather than petering out, the virus seems to be ramping up. It has infected nearly 2,000 people in west Africa. Over 1,000 of them have died, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).</p>
<p>That is probably an underestimate. Some families, distrustful of outsiders and authorities, are concealing sick relatives. Unlike previous outbreaks, this one has travelled to cities, including crowded Lagos, Nigeria's commercial capital, which could become a transmission hotspot. On August 8th, for only the third time, the WHO declared a "public health emergency of <keyword id="6356001" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> concern".</p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div>Despite the alarm, Ebola is unlikely to become a pandemic. The virus is caught only by direct contact with bodily fluids, such as vomit and blood. It is less contagious than airborne diseases, such as influenza.</p>
<p>Each Ebola victim usually infects just one or two others, whereas a case of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), first reported in Asia in 2003, generates three more. Compared with other infectious diseases in Africa, Ebola is a small-scale killer (see chart). But the virus is devastating for the region nonetheless.</p>
<p>The frightful nature of the disease, which can cause vomiting, diarrhoea and uncontrollable bleeding, and the lack of a cure have led to panic and fear. Ebola sufferers have overwhelmed hospitals, impairing their ability to treat other patients.</p>
<p>Quarantines are necessary, but threaten local economies (see "The economic impact of Ebola: Panicking only makes it worse"). The virus has showed how hard it can be to stop an outbreak and how, despite some progress, the world is still ill-prepared for a formidable new pathogen.</p>
<p>Ebola is not the first epidemic to catch the world off-guard. Advances in vaccines and antibiotics in the 20th century led some health experts to discount the threat of infectious disease. The devastating arrival of AIDS, SARS, H5N1 (a strain of bird flu) and H1N1 (commonly dubbed swine flu) exposed that as wishful thinking.</p>
<p>In the past two years a type of influenza called H7N9 was found in humans for the first time. A new disease caused by a virus from the same family as SARS, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), emerged in Saudi Arabia and has continued to fester.</p>
<p>In response the world has got better at spotting and dealing with troubling viruses. SARS and H5N1, in particular, jolted scientists, companies and governments into action. ProMED and HealthMap, two online reporting systems run by the International Society for Infectious Diseases and Boston Children's Hospital, use a variety of sources to provide quick information on possible outbreaks.</p>
<p>Epidemiologists now understand that most dangerous new viruses jump from animals to men, mutating along the way. So America's government is paying independent groups, such as the EcoHealth Alliance, to search for pathogens in places where such viral hopscotch is likely--often where rapid development disrupts animals' natural habitats. New tools for studying a virus's genes make it easier to identify different strains.</p>
<p>The goal is to spot viruses early so that the damage they do can be contained. To that end, members of the WHO passed new rules for reporting and responding to outbreaks in 2005. China's handling of H7N9 was a sign of progress. A decade earlier, Chinese officials had concealed information about SARS, allowing that virus to spread. But last year China's government promptly shared samples of H7N9 with laboratories around the world and published its own findings in the New England Journal of Medicine.</p>
<h3>How to stop a killer</h3>
<p>The Ebola outbreak is a grisly reminder of how much work remains to be done. The virus first emerged in 1976 in a remote part of Sudan and in the Democratic Republic of Congo, near the Ebola river. But even though epidemiologists were familiar with the disease, it quietly killed Guineans for four months starting last December.</p>
<p>Its symptoms resemble those of more common ailments, such as malaria, which helped to conceal its presence. Apart from a small outbreak in Cote d'Ivoire, this is also the first time that Ebola has appeared in west Africa.</p>
<p>Having revealed a failure in surveillance, Ebola is now exposing how hard it is to contain an outbreak, particularly in poor countries. Stopping Ebola should, in theory, be straightforward. There is no cure, but there are ways to treat victims that will maximise their chance of survival and help prevent transmission.</p>
<p>Patients should be isolated and kept hydrated, their blood pressure monitored and secondary infections treated. Those who have come into contact with the infected should be watched to see if symptoms develop. If none emerge within 21 days, the person can be deemed virus-free.</p>
<p>But all this is labour-intensive. "You still have to have a cadre of people who at the end of the day are able to go out there," explains Ian Lipkin of Columbia University. That depends on strong health systems or substantial international help. In this case, there was neither.</p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div>The outbreak began in three of the world's poorest countries. Guinea spends $62 per person on health each year, compared with $3,364 in Britain.</p>
<p>Sierra Leone has two doctors per 100,000 people, compared with 245 in America (see chart). Such health workers as are available in the countries affected by Ebola are under severe strain.</p>
<p>About 150 have been infected and 80 have died, the WHO said on August 8th. Médecins Sans Frontières, a non-profit organisation that has 680 health workers in the region, now says that its staff "simply cannot do more".</p>
<p>Decades of civil war in these countries have made matters worse. Many villagers distrust the government and foreign health workers in particular--they fear that doctors and nurses carry the virus. This has undermined efforts to isolate infected patients and stop the chain of transmission.</p>
<p>Education is especially crucial. No family wants to leave a sick loved one or deny him the embraces common in a traditional burial. Yet if the virus is to be stopped, that is what must be done.</p>
<p>In the face of such problems, the WHO's power is limited. It has laid out steps that governments should take, including ensuring health workers' security, but all it can do is make recommendations. The agency is already overstretched from dealing with humanitarian crises in the Central African Republic, South Sudan and Syria, as well the ongoing challenge posed by H7N9 and MERS.</p>
<p>Its budget for outbreaks and crises has declined by 35% since 2010, though it can seek extra money in emergencies. Last month the WHO said $103m was needed to continue the fight against Ebola; it faces a gap of $79m.</p>
<p>Other groups are trying to help. The World Bank says it will devote up to $200m to fight Ebola, though some of these funds were already allocated to the affected countries. America's Centres for Disease Control and Prevention now has over 50 health experts in west Africa. How much difference this will make is unclear, however--many more doctors and nurses are needed.</p>
<p>In the long term, several things will be needed to prevent a repetition of the chaos of this outbreak. The World Bank will direct some of its funding towards improving west Africa's teetering health systems.</p>
<p>As African countries get richer, they should invest more in their own health systems, too. Properly staffed, well-supplied clinics would help countries handle not just outbreaks of Ebola, but more common diseases such as malaria and HIV.</p>
<p>Nigeria's health system is hardly a model--its response to Ebola has been hampered by a strike of government health workers--but it provides a glimpse of how countries might cope with outbreaks in future. The health ministry has been sending text messages detailing symptoms to watch for, protective measures and hotlines to ring to seek care.</p>
<p>New vaccines and drugs to treat Ebola will also be needed. Some are already being developed, including one called ZMapp, which was given to two infected American health workers. Much has been made of these experimental medications, but none has been properly tested in humans.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, on August 12th a WHO committee of scientists and ethicists recommended that their use be allowed in west Africa, subject to certain conditions. Also on that day Canada's government said it would donate up to 1,000 doses of a new Ebola vaccine to the WHO.</p>
<p>Whether it works or how it will be distributed is still unclear. Of the experimental treatments, ZMapp has attracted the most attention. But given the early stage of the drug's development, there is as yet no system for manufacturing it in bulk, even if it were to prove effective.</p>
<p>The toll from this outbreak looks set to rise. But at least the severity of the disease is recognised. At a Kenema coffee shop made of corrugated iron, patrons used to doubt that the virus was real. "Ebola no dae," they would declare, in the local krio language. The mood now is different. "Ebola is there," announced one elderly tea-drinker. "It is worse than the war."</p>
<p>Click <a href="http://www.store.eiu.com">here</a> to subscribe to The Economist</p>

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