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<keyword id="19895045" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Singapore" source="keywords">Singapore</keyword>: India and Singapore held the 2nd round of the <keyword id="21531849" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India-Singapore-Ministerial-Roundtable" source="keywords">India-Singapore Ministerial Roundtable</keyword> (<keyword id="22918586" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ISMR" source="keywords">ISMR</keyword>) in Singapore on Monday and reviewed the progress of the strategic partnership between the two nations, the Ministry of External Affairs said in a press release. The two nations decided to add two new pillars, 'Advanced Manufacturing and Connectivity' for further strengthening bilateral cooperation. Finance Minister Nirmala Sithraman, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar, Commerce and Industry Minister <keyword id="19895367" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="piyush-goyal" source="keywords">Piyush Goyal</keyword> and Railways Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw represented the Indian side in Singapore. From the Singapore side, Gan Kim Yong, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Trade and Industry, Vivian Balakrishnan, Minister for Foreign Affairs, K Shanmugam, Minister for Home Affairs and Minister for Law, Josephine Teo, Minister for Digital Development and Information and Second Minister for Home Affairs, Tan See Leng, Minister for Manpower and Second Minister for Trade and Industry and Chee Hong Tat, Minister for Transport and Second Minister for Finance participated in the meeting. "The Ministers reviewed the progress of India - Singapore Strategic Partnership, particularly under the pillars of Digitalization, Skills Development, Sustainability, Healthcare and Medicine, identified during the 1st meeting of ISMR, held in New Delhi on September 17, 2022," the statement read. They deliberated on ideas to expand bilateral cooperation and decided to add two new pillars, Advanced Manufacturing and Connectivity for further strengthening bilateral cooperation. The Ministers agreed to hold the next round of ISMR in India at a mutually convenient time. During their visit, the Indian Ministers also called on Singapore President, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, and Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. "India and Singapore are important partners of each other. The visit reaffirmed the commitment of both sides to further strengthen their multifaceted partnership," MEA added. Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has called the India-Singapore Ministerial Dialogue an important platform for strengthening bilateral ties. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman thanked Singapore PM for meeting them and stated that talks with Lawrence Wong clearly show that ties between India and Singapore are on sound footing. <keyword id="19922551" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="EAM-Jaishankar" source="keywords">EAM Jaishankar</keyword> thanked the Singapore Ministers for their commitment to deepen ties between the two nations. (ANI)

India, Singapore to focus on advanced manufacturing, connectivity to boost bilateral relations

Earlier this week, former US President Donald Trump revealed that Indian Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> is scheduled to meet with him next week. This potential gathering, set against the backdrop of Trump’s bid for a return to the White House, highlights how global leaders are positioning themselves in anticipation of possible changes in US leadership. “He happens to be coming to meet me next week, and Modi, he’s fantastic,” Trump said on Tuesday during a town hall event in Flint, Michigan, while discussing free trade and US job protection. He even went on to call India a “very big abuser” in trade, Al Jazeera reported. Most likely, Prime Minister Narendra Modi meeting up with Trump could be an acknowledgment of the latter's potential return to power in the November election, as foreign leaders carefully navigate diplomatic relations with key US political figures. However, neither the Trump campaign nor India’s Ministry of External Affairs have clearly commented on the matter yet, meaning that the Indian leader’s plans of a tête-à-tête with ex US President Trump are foggy at best. During a press conference, foreign secretary <keyword id="20181706" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vikram-misri" source="keywords">Vikram Misri</keyword> said, "there are many meetings with the Prime Minister right now which we are trying to fix. Right now, I will not be able to tell you about any specific meeting, whether the meeting has been fixed or not." "We are looking from all angles as to how much time we have and with whom we can hold meetings. We will keep updating you about the meetings," he added. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113444882" title="Trump says PM Modi will meet him during US visit, calls him &amp;#39;fantastic&amp;#39;" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>What we do know with certainty is that Mr Modi is indeed scheduled to travel to the US over the weekend and his calendar is going to be jam-packed. His visit coincides with his planned participation at the <keyword id="23145156" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Quad-Leaders-Summit" source="keywords">Quad Leaders Summit</keyword> (including representatives from Australia, India, Japan and the US) in Wilmington, Delaware, hosted by President Joe Biden. As per a White House official, the meet-up will feature "ambitious announcements in multiple areas such as maritime security, high-quality infrastructure and critical and emerging technologies to demonstrate the group’s endurance". Prime Minister Modi will have bilateral meetings with President Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Sunday, following the conclusion of the Quad Summit. A special event, the Cancer Moonshot initiative, is also scheduled on the sidelines of the summit. In his meeting with President Biden, India and the US are anticipated to sign several agreements, including those related to the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on drug frameworks. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated that Modi and Biden will review the comprehensive global strategic partnership between India and the US, which spans over 50 areas of engagement and bilateral dialogue mechanisms. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113085171" title="India is likely to benefit if Trump wins US elections, per Nomura Global Research" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Both leaders will also assess progress in areas of cooperation, though tensions remain due to the alleged assassination plot involving Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. The investigation is ongoing, and India has formed a committee to examine the accusations. This visit may serve to ease some of the friction in the relationship. Defence cooperation remains a key area of collaboration between India and the U.S., including agreements on the procurement of 31 MQ-9B Predator drones, joint manufacturing of Stryker Infantry Combat Vehicles, and co-production of GE F414 engines in India. The Ukraine conflict is also expected to be a topic of discussion. Prime Minister Modi is supposed to attend the "Modi &amp; US" community event at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Long Island. The event, already overbooked with more than 24,000 Indian Americans registered for a venue with a capacity of 15,000, has attracted attendees from 42 states, especially the tri-state area. Additionally, PM Modi will allegedly lead a roundtable with CEOs of American companies working in fields like AI, quantum computing, biotechnology, and cutting-edge technology. Lastly, on September 23, Modi will address global leaders at the United Nations' Summit of the Future (SOTF) and is expected to hold bilateral meetings with other heads of state attending the UN General Assembly. Obviously, squeezing in a meeting with Trump and Democrat Candidate Kamala Harris (you know, to balance things out) seems unlikely given Mr Modi’s tight schedule. But we’ll have a clearer picture only in the coming days. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111770277" title="PM Modi likely to address high-level UNGA session on Sep 26" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>

Why is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting the US this weekend?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met China's Xi Jinping in Beijing Friday. </li><li>The pair remain at loggerheads over issues including the economy, national security, and Ukraine. </li></ul>Ahead of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's meeting with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-china-relations-more-engagement-not-more-trust-taiwan-clash-2024-4">China's leader, Xi Jinping,</a> China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, had a stark warning.There was a risk, he said, that US-China relations could "return to a downward spiral."US cooperation with China had increased in some areas, he added, but "on the other hand, negative factors in Sino-US relations are still rising and accumulating", according to Chinese state media.China's relationship with the US has been under serious strain in recent years. From Ukraine to the Middle East, TikTok to trade, the superpowers remain at loggerheads on various issues.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-building-military-scale-not-seen-wwii-invade-taiwan-aquilino-2024-3">A US military chief in March</a> warned that China is engaging in the biggest military build-up since World War II and could be preparing an attack on Taiwan that risks direct military confrontation with the US.The independent island is the main flash point between Washington and Beijing, with the US signaling that it would help defend it from China, which has long sought to bring it under its control.As such, the US-China relationship appears to have entered a dangerous period, and time may be running out to save it.<h2>Smoothing relations</h2>There are reasons to be hopeful that the superpowers can remain on good terms. In recent months, there have been signs that both nations are keen to reduce tensions.In his meeting with Blinken Friday, Xi struck a conciliatory tone, saying that the US and China should be "partners, not rivals" and avoid engaging in "vicious competition."China's economy, after decades of growth, is in a property market-fuelled crisis, with foreign investment down, consumer spending low, and unemployment spiking.Analysts say that Xi is keen to smooth ties with the West to secure the flow of US cash and retain access to crucial markets in Western Europe.Last year, Xi offered US President <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-xi-pull-away-from-brink-conflict-apec-meeting-china-2023-11">Joe Biden a series of concessions to improve relations,</a> and Chinese rhetoric against the US has been markedly less confrontational ever since.While tensions are growing, both sides seem to want to avoid a potentially catastrophic confrontation."Secretary Blinken's meetings in China underscored both the continuation of the tactical thaw in bilateral relations and the accumulation of fundamental stresses," Ali Wyne, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, told Business Insider.He said that technological rivalry and Taiwan tensions "are poised to intensify," and the two countries remain "far apart" over the Russia-Ukraine war." "If there is a silver lining, it is that the deterioration of US-China relations is now occurring in a more predictable, controlled manner than it was a year earlier."<h2>China's red lines</h2>As well as expressing a desire for improved relations with the US, China's foreign minister, Wang, warned the US Thursday against crossing China's "red lines."Serious tensions on a range of issues remain as China intensifies its bid to dent US global power.China is escalating its support for Russia's military industry, according to the US, which says it is providing crucial components for weapons used to attack Ukraine.The US has handed Ukraine billions in aid and military support to resist the invasion, with a new $61 billion bill passing this week.Blinken said he raised concerns about China's support for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. Ahead of the meeting,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-dedollarization-sanctions-russia-trade-dollar-access-banks-ukraine-war-2024-4"> reports said that the US</a> could seek to sanction Chinese banks for facilitating China's trade in technological parts with Russia.China denied the accusation and previously accused NATO of stoking the war in Ukraine.A US aid package this week contained $8 billion in support for Taiwan amid escalating fears of a Chinese invasion, drawing criticism from Beijing that accused the US<a target="_blank" href="https://fortune.com/2024/04/26/antony-blinken-visits-beijing/"> of a dangerous provocation.</a>On trade, there are further tensions, with a US law this week meaning that Chinese-owned video site TikTok could be forced to sell or be banned in the US amid concerns over the security of user data.Despite attempts to stabilize relations, serious challenges remain."The trend for this year has been more engagement, more communications, but not more trust," Ian Bremmer, the president and founder of the political-risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-04-24/bremmer-us-china-relations-getting-worse-quite-slowly-video">Bloomberg TV</a> this week.Blinken will have to overcome several hurdles for US-China relations to improve.

The US relationship with China is entering a dangerous era. Time may be running out to save it.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Janet Yellen has warned Chinese companies not to give Russia material support in its war against Ukraine.</li><li>Yellen, who's visiting China, is also seeking to address China's industrial overproduction.</li></ul>US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in China to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-shock-explainer-us-economy-trade-dumping-supply-glut-yellen-2024-4">talk tough with Beijing</a> about its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-overcapacity-dumping-manufacturing-exports-economic-woes-world-yellen-2024-4">massive overproduction</a> of stuff.But while the economy is at the top of Yellen's agenda, it's China's ties with Russia that could be the stickiest point in Washington and Beijing's relationship.During her trip, Yellen warned Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng that Chinese companies providing "material support" for Russia's war against Ukraine could face "significant consequences," according to a meeting summary from the <a target="_blank" href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2231">Treasury</a> on Saturday."We've been clear with China that we see Russia as gaining support from goods that Chinese firms are supplying to Russia," <a target="_blank" href="https://us.afpnews.com/article/?us-china-agree-to-hold-talks-on-balanced-economic-growth,34NR26L#">Yellen told journalists</a>. She didn't publicly specify what the consequences for China could be.Yellen's sharply worded comments about China's relationship with Russia stand in contrast to the warmer tone she's taken on her trip regarding Washington-Beijing ties, even amid tensions over a range of issues including trade, tech, and geopolitics."While we have more to do, I believe that, over the past year, we have put our bilateral relationship on more stable footing," <a target="_blank" href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2233">Yellen said</a> on Sunday.<h2>US has concerns about China's support for Russia</h2>Yellen's shot at China over Russia came after recent warnings from another US official.Last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told European Union and NATO foreign ministers that Beijing was assisting Moscow "at a concerning scale," including providing Russia with tools and technical expertise, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/ba524406-ee6c-4c39-9ac2-110a2549569a">Financial Times</a> reported, citing three unnamed people familiar with the discussions.One of the people told FT that Blinken brought up these worries about China in every session of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers on Wednesday and Thursday, adding that Blinken's warnings were "explicit.""There has been a shift, and it was felt in the room," the person told the FT, adding: "This was a new development. It was very striking."<a target="_blank" href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3252333/china-and-ukraine-agree-need-contact-foreign-ministers-meet-munich">China's foreign minister</a> said in February that the country didn't supply lethal weapons to either party in the Ukraine war.Beijing told Yellen it wasn't in its policy to provide Russia with military support, the Treasury Secretary said on Saturday. "Neither of us want this to be an issue with our bilateral relationship," she added.Despite this stance, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-trade-record-ukraine-war-xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-2024-1">trade between China and Russia</a> jumped to a record $240 billion in 2023 — keeping <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-how-moscow-pays-war-economy-afloat-sanctions-ukraine-2024-2">Russia's sanctions-hit economy</a> resilient even as the war in Ukraine stretches into its third year.In a sign that Beijing and Moscow's relationship will continue to be problematic for Washington, Russia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, is also in China on Monday and Tuesday to discuss bilateral cooperation and "hot topics," according to a translation of the <a target="_blank" href="https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1942828/">Russian foreign ministry's statement</a> on Sunday.<h2>The US and China agreed to promote 'balanced growth'</h2>Yellen's discussions about overproduction with China appeared to be more measured than her comments about Beijing's ties with Russia.The US is taking issue with China's industrial capacity, particularly in the hot areas of electric vehicles, solar cells, and lithium-ion batteries. The administration of China's leader, Xi Jinping, has identified that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-new-growth-areas-electric-vehicles-batteries-solar-property-2024-1">trio of manufacturing</a> as the new drivers of the world's second-largest economy as it transitions from growth fueled by the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/evergrande-ordered-liquidate-china-real-estate-property-crisis-winners-assets-2024-1">embattled real-estate sector</a>.Chinese companies are now flooding the global market with new energy products, undermining US and European companies' ability to compete with them effectively.In one striking example, Chinese manufacturers are pumping out <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-flood-solar-panel-cell-market-garden-fence-overcapacity-yellen-2024-4">so many solar panels</a> that it's tanking their value, prompting some people in other parts of the world to line their garden fences with the once-prized items.But the US and China still agreed to hold additional talks in the future to promote "<a target="_blank" href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2232">balanced growth</a>.""I think the Chinese realize how concerned we are about the implications of their industrial strategy for the United States, for the potential to flood our markets with exports that make it difficult for American firms to compete," Yellen told journalists on Saturday."It's not going to be solved in an afternoon or a month, but I think they have heard that this is an important issue to us," she added.For his part, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/zyxw/202404/t20240407_11277519.shtml">Chinese Premier Li Qiang</a> on Sunday told Yellen not to "politicize" trade and economic issues. He also said, however, that both the US and China had "deeply intertwined economic interests" and should find ways to manage and resolve differences.

The US-China relationship appears to be warming up, but Russia could still be a sticking point

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's export volumes jumped 7.1% in the first two months of 2024, far exceeding expectations of a 1.9% increase.</li><li>Exports to Russia climbed 12.5% as the two countries look to deepen ties.</li></ul>Chinese export volumes have shot past estimates so far this year, boosted by deeper trade ties with Russia and other emerging markets, the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/44c673b1-4eb5-4233-9c4a-a6980221b3d8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Financial Times</a> reported.Volumes rose 7.1% in the first two months of 2024, eclipsing a Reuters poll forecast of 1.9%. It's a good sign for Beijing, whose economy was hit with weak export earnings last year, amid other struggles.Closer trade ties with Russia helped drive the pickup. Through January and February, Chinese exports to the country rose 12.5%, while bilateral trade hit a total of $37 billion. "China and Russia have created a new paradigm of major-country relations," Foreign Minister Wang Yi said during the National People's Congress meeting. "The two sides' political mutual trust continues to deepen. Russian natural gas is reaching households in China, while Chinese cars are driving on the streets of Russia."To the alarm of the West, the two countries have strengthened ties since Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with bilateral trade hitting a record $240 billion last year. Trade with China has offered Russia some breathing room amid a wave of war-related sanctions, providing it with a new market to unload energy products that have otherwise been rejected by the US and its allies. On China's end, its latest spike in exports may also signal a shifting growth strategy. As the country looks to reduce its massive reliance on property sector growth — an <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-housing-market-real-estate-crash-investors-outlook-construction-2024-3#:~:text=Capital%20Economics%20says%20an%20%22unavoidable,half%20in%20the%20years%20ahead.">industry currently in default</a> — emphasis is instead growing on manufacturing. More production means that exports are likely to rise, which China Beige Book CEO Leland Miller noted could lead to international tensions and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-trade-war-exports-manufacturing-growth-property-crisis-solar-2024-3">trade wars in 2025</a>.In the meantime, China's trade with the US rose 0.7% so far this year, and Wang acknowledged that Beijing's relationship with Washington remained "critical."However, he argued that the US has an obsession with restraining China: "It is unacceptable that certain countries are at the table while others are on the menu," he said.In part, that may be as the US is pursuing tighter enforcement of its sanctions against Russia, a strategy that has come to encompass Chinese entities. Fear of secondary sanctions has caused three of China's four state banks to halt <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-biggest-banks-stop-russia-payments-icbc-ccb-boc-2024-2">payment transactions with Russian institutions</a>.

China's economy is showing signs of life as it touts its growing relationship with Russia

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A new analysis compiling 25 experts' thoughts on US-China relations forecasts a bleak outlook.</li><li>It summarized their theories into four scenarios. None of them were positive.</li></ul>The future of US-China relations looks grim, according to a new report by a group of 25 experts on both countries.The report compiled theories from former senior Obama and Trump administration officials, retired researchers from the Chinese People's Liberation Army, and academics on both sides, said non-profit <a target="_blank" href="https://uschinascenarios.com/">PAX sapiens</a>, which organized the collaboration.A summary of their opinions outlined four major plausible scenarios that could unfold by 2035:1) All-out war2) Both countries rule separate blocs of the world3) A refusal from both parties to cooperate4) Both countries communicate regularly while their economies slowly decoupleNotably, none of these scenarios include an outcome many investors and business leaders still hope for — a dream of shared growth that seemed possible amid thawing relations in the post-Cold War era.A different reality now exists compared to the 1980s, the report said, with the US seeing China as a threat that breaks the rules of the world order and Beijing viewing Washington as trying to stifle its rise."Observers in both countries predict near-term economic difficulties in the other, and neither feels the other appreciates its history or values," the report said.Both sides think their military actions are defensive, while the other's is provocative, the report added.Not every expert agreed on all the details in each scenario, but the analysis represents a loose consensus of their thoughts, PAX sapiens said in the full report released last week, seen by Business Insider.<h2>1) War over Taiwan</h2>If war were to happen, the report posits that it may break out in the early 2030s over Taiwan.The experts listed a timeline of specific events that are purely theoretical, but cover flashpoints that could lead to direct hostilities when combined.US lawmakers call for bans against Chinese students, Taiwan starts to assert independence, China encircles the island, and the Pentagon announces it will defend Taipei, the analysis said. And US scientists might find a mysterious avian flu in China, while China detains five Americans on accusations that they broke the law."It is not a case of a single escalatory event, or a single crisis that spins out of control," Conor Seyle, vice president of operations at PAX sapiens and one of the analysis' organizers, said <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvoblmoQbzE&amp;t=407s">at a briefing on Friday about the analysis.</a>"Instead, the war scenario is a scenario of increasing crises leading to increasing distrust in diplomatic solutions," he said.As trust breaks down, a series of mishaps like US and Chinese navy ships colliding or clashing, would likely tip both countries into a full-scale war. The scenario, however, did not go so far as to predict nuclear war.<h2>2) A zero-sum bloc game</h2>Or US-China trade could fall to all-time lows by the late 2020s, with competition ramping up over AI, quantum computers, and other technology, the analysis said.As both sides impose more export controls on each other, US allies in Europe and the Asia Pacific might band together with Washington, while BRICS — the bloc involving Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Saudi Arabia — develop their own separate technology."Parallel, mutually firewalled, and incompatible technology regimes discourage and, in some instances, prevent communication across blocs," the report theorized.Proxy wars involving religious extremists or terrorists might become more frequent, while Latin America and Africa become divided over who they side with, it added.One positive element of this scenario is that green technology might flourish because of an urgent need for more energy, the analysis said.But overall, the result would be "the collapse of the WTO" and "a negative drag on global GDP growth" in a zero-sum game between Washington and Beijing. The threat of war would also linger by 2035, the experts said.<h2>3) "Lurch from crisis to crisis"</h2>It's also possible that while no confrontation takes place by 2035, communication and cooperation between both countries could worsen, the analysis said.This scenario predicts what would happen with two prerequisites: China solidifies its presence as a global trade power, enough for Europe to bolster economic ties with Beijing, and the US scales back visits to and aggressive support for Taiwan.But both countries will accuse each other of violating international trade rules — the US would say China uses state resources to create unfair market competition, while China would say the US does the same and holds itself to a double standard.Beijing and Washington might manage to avoid war by showing baseline restraint, but nothing more, the analysis said.With no mutual agreements or guiding principles to shepherd their relations, the United States and China could "lurch from crisis to crisis with ad hoc responses, barely managing to forestall escalation."<h2>4) Self-reliance and a modified status quo</h2>Perhaps the sunniest of these scenarios is the idea that the US and China might slowly and calculatingly decouple their economies in a way that avoids misunderstanding or war.Still, the analysis says that in this timeline, "it's clear that the main tenets of the post-1980s US-China bilateral relationship have broken down."Both nations may start to emphasize self-reliance, specifically building up their economies to function without the other, the analysis said. The winners are likely to be low- and middle-income countries in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, with their raw materials and labor being coveted by either side.Yet in this scenario, the two countries maintain regular communication channels to avoid escalation whenever small crises take place, the analysis said.Taiwan would avoid declaring independence, while the US would stick to the One China Policy. China might start to think that if it could dominate global trade, Taipei would eventually ask to reunify."But even with this hope for selective engagement, the US-China relationship remains vulnerable to political swings in both countries that could easily lead to rapid deterioration in relations and a dangerous escalation of tensions," the report said.Seyle emphasized that the analysis isn't presenting forecasts, but theoretical scenarios that hit areas of concern in broad strokes."The reason why it's narrative is because we are story-telling creatures," Seyle said at the Friday briefing.In a closing section, he and two of the report's organizers said they intended for the analysis to realistically "anticipate possible challenges the two countries might plausibly be facing.""We organized this project at a time of general pessimism about the prospect of the current US-China relationship," wrote Seyle, Ren Libo of the Chinese think tank Grandview Institute, and Adam Kahane of Massachusetts-based consultancy Reos Partners.

25 experts calculated the scenarios they think could play out in the US-China relationship. All the results are bleak.

Post the first state visit of <keyword id="6354814" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="prime-minister-narendra-modi" source="Orion">Prime Minister Narendra Modi</keyword> to the US, the two countries are forging much closer bilateral ties with high-level visits on all fronts, a senior Biden administration official has said, observing that India and the US have never had a stronger relationship than now. Modi visited the US at the invitation of President Joe Biden and met him on all three days of his stay here between June 21 and June 23. On June 22, the two leaders spent time together for more than eight hours, the official said. Biden also held a private dinner for Modi on June 21. India and the United States have never had a stronger relationship than right now, the official said post-Modi visit, it has never been deeper in the memory of the president. The official said China was a major issue of discussion between the two leaders. "In reality... it (China) is not the glue of our relationship at all, but it's one of the factors and I think we're gonna have that glue for a long time to come," the official, familiar with the discussions between the two leaders last month, said on condition of anonymity. Both India and the United States believe that China poses a major national security threat to them, the official said, noting that the Biden administration thinks New Delhi has been ahead of Washington in terms of handling Beijing. The Under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights Uzra Zeya had a meeting with the Dalai Lama a couple of weeks ago in New Delhi, and "the Chinese kind of went nuts about that", the official noted. "They (Indians are) in some ways were ahead of us. It is much more existential for them in terms of countering the China threat. Whether it's banning TikTok, whether it was building up mobile networks with no Chinese equipment, they've actually shown a way forward of what de-risking looks like. And that's why I think they're so critical," said the official. "At the same time, they still depend on a lot of Chinese things, just like we do. China has been a real irritant in the G-20 for them," the official noted, giving an insight into the G-20 discussions and the balancing act that India is doing to bring all stakeholders together. In India "Modi's popularity is about 80% in some polls, so is America's," the senior administration said. "That's not just reflected at the very top which is where we usually write about or hear about. It's, I think, underneath that at the government-to-government level business-to-business level. And then people to people," the official said. "Vice versa, if the bridge from India to America is a steel reinforced four-lane highway, a strong, stable bridge; I would describe in years past the bridge from America to India has been like a rope bridge with every other plank missing. Like we don't know India and Indians anywhere near the level that India and Indians know America and Americans. I think that's beginning to change," said the official, referring to a large number of high-level visits to India. There's hardly a week or two that goes by without a major US government representative being in the country. And then on the business side, it's like a steady stream of CEOs, he said, adding "some have better strategies than others, but everybody's like rushing India." "It's one of those moments where, if you rewind the clock, China 15 years ago was raising people at this pace out of poverty into the middle class. India is actually doing it a little faster than China was 15 or 20 years ago. You just look at the metrics, whether it's the number one source of student visas now, India surpassed China last year, whether it's the investment, which is a record level, and we're the number one trading partner for India for the first time. And another number of other metrics," the official said. "This is the most significant country in many ways for them and becoming one of the most. The president said one of the most consequential relationships we have. Privately he's expressed ... that this is the most important relationship that we have, at least in terms of growth and, and the future," said the official.

Indo-US relationship much stronger after PM Modi's recent US visit: Biden admin official

The North Korean embassy in <keyword id="6358777" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="New-Delhi">New Delhi</keyword>, <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="20" keywordseo="India">India</keyword>’s capital, does not look particularly inviting. Housed in a nondescript two-storey building with fading white exteriors , the North Korean embassy is miles away, in all senses, from the swanky Chanakyapuri area where most diplomatic missions are located. The only real sign of movement around the building seems to be the flag fluttering weakly on the roof, which is also the only visible indicator of a North Korean presence. In fact, the building was the subject of <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/india/comments/4ztjzq/indian_embassy_in_pyongyang_north_koreanp/">a thread</a> on Reddit, a discussion platform, a few years ago. One user remarked, “This looks like an average coaching institute hostel in New Delhi”. The dejected state of the embassy is reflective of the current ties between <keyword id="13473" type="LOCATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="North-Korea">North Korea</keyword> and India, who first established relations in 1973. However, this might all be about to change. Following North Korea’s re-entry into the hallways of international diplomacy - marked by <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/27/watch-the-north-and-south-korean-leaders-historic-handshake.html">a handshake</a> between the leaders of both the Koreas and <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/08/politics/pompeo-north-korea-trip-trump/index.html">visits by the US Secretary of State, </a>Mike Pompeo - India seems ready to renew ties with the country. On May 16th, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) <a href="http://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/29899/Visit+of+Minister+of+State+for+External+Affairs+General+Dr+VK+Singh+Retd+to+the+Democratic+Peoples+Republic+of+Korea">announced </a>that V.K. Singh, the minister of state for external affairs, had embarked on a two-day trip to North Korea- the first such visit by an Indian minister in two decades. The two sides agreed to collaborate in a number of spheres, including education, medicine, agriculture and the promotion of cultural practices like yoga. The move was actually precipitated by India’s concern over Pakistan’s supposed access to North Korea’s missile technology, strategically phrased as “proliferation linkages in India’s neighbourhood”. The concerns weren’t unfounded. Pakistan and North Korea <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2016/08/the-long-history-of-the-pakistan-north-korea-nexus/">have a history of cooperation in nuclear technology</a>. For it’s part, North Korea was said to have reassured India that there would be no threats to its security. The pleasantries exchanged are a sign of progress, more so given the MEA’s<a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/mea-tells-north-korea-missile-programme-impacting-indian-national-security-refrain-from-such-actions/753745/"> condemnation of North Korea’s launch of a nuclear missile</a> in July last year. A few months before, the Indian government had also <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/01/news/north-korea-india-trade-ban/index.html">cut all trade ties </a>with the country, except for food and medicine, in compliance with a UN resolution. Trade between the two countries totalled $133.4 million in 2016-17, a paltry figure for India, but not insignificant for North Korea, since the former was it’s third-largest trading partner. The visit by V.K. Singh is a tentative start to a renewed relationship. It could be given an even greater impetus if the proposed summit between <keyword id="6354484" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Donald-Trump">Donald Trump</keyword> and Kim Jong Un <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/north-korea-threatens-to-cancel-summit-with-trump-over-military-ruckus-with-south-korea/articleshow/64182441.cms">not only goes through</a>, but proves to be successful in encouraging the denuclearisation of North Korea. Perhaps then, the North Korean embassy in Delhi will get a makeover.

India and North Korea are hitting the restart button on their relationship

By Harinder Mishra Jerusalem, May 19 () Foreign Ministers of India and Israel have vowed to work together to strengthen and expand the multi-faceted bilateral relationship for a mutually beneficial partnership, days after a new government was sworn in in the Jewish state. Israel's new government was sworn in on Sunday under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, bringing an end to the longest political deadlock in the country's history which saw a caretaker government in charge for over 500 days and three back-to-back general elections with no clear verdict. The vote of confidence in the new government was passed with 73 votes in favour and 46 against in the Knesset (Israeli parliament). External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Monday congratulated his newly-appointed Israeli counterpart Gabi Ashkenazi, a former Chief of Staff of the Israel Defence Forces. "Mazal Tov @Gabi_Ashkenazi on assuming the post of Israeli Foreign Minister. I look forward to working with you to strengthen our multi-faceted and mutually beneficial partnership", Jaishankar tweeted in Hebrew. Ashkenazi thanked Jaishanker and stressed on strengthening ties in diverse fields between the two countries. "Thank you @DrSJaishankar. I am also looking forward to working with you to strengthen and expand the strong relations between Israel and India in multiple fields", the Israeli foreign minister tweeted in Hindi and English on Monday. Earlier, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first few world leaders to congratulate Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Sunday on forming the government for a record fifth time, soon after the Knesset approved the new government. "Mazal Tov (congratulations) my friend @netanyahu for forming your fifth government in Israel," Modi wrote on Twitter in Hebrew and English. "Thank you my dear friend the Prime Minister of India! We will continue to strengthen the important relationship between us," Netanyahu responded in Hebrew on Sunday. Netanyahu, 70, and his rival-turned-partner Benny Gantz joined hands to form a coalition government under a power-sharing agreement that would see the latter taking over the premiership on November 17, 2021. The new government, which according to the coalition agreement, will see Gantz replace Netanyahu as the Prime Minister after 18 months. Gantz will serve as Defense Minister until he is scheduled to take over as the Prime Minister in November next year. He will till then have the title of 'Alternate Prime Minister', something that Netanyahu will take over from him after exchanging the baton. The beleaguered Israeli prime minister, who surpassed Israel's first Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion's record of the longest-serving Premier in the country's history last year in July, managed to hold on to his right-wing bloc amid three inconclusive polls to force his main rival Gantz to finally succumb to the demand of a broad national unity government. Gantz campaigned on replacing Netanyahu due to the prime minister's indictment on graft charges, but dropped his opposition to sitting in a government with him after the latest elections again ended with no clear winner, citing the coronavirus pandemic and a desire to avoid a fourth round of voting. The move led to the breakup of the Blue and White alliance, with Gantz being elected as Knesset speaker with the backing of Netanyahu's right-wing religious bloc as they negotiated the terms of the new government. Ahead of the swearing-in ceremony, Likud and Blue and White on Wednesday evening released the policy principles of the new government, as instructed by Israel's Supreme Court. The document said that the government will initially form an emergency cabinet to deal with the coronavirus pandemic and formulate a plan to bring Israel out of the accompanying economic crisis while rolling out a "socioeconomic safety net" and special programmes for citizens who are struggling financially. HM MRJ MRJ

India, Israel agree to strengthen bilateral ties

Mumbai, Feb 15 () Portugal on Saturday called for enhancing bilateral trade, saying the two countries have the potential to take it to the next level.The trade between India and Portugal stood at USD 876 million in 2019-20, according to industry estimates."I would like to say that the prospects of our relation are very positive. We have historical and political relations. Still, the trade between the two countries could be much bigger and we have to double or triple the figures of our bilateral trade that counts for one year now a days," Portuguese Foreign Affairs Minister Augusto Santos Silva said at India-Portugal Business Forum here.The investments by the companies from the two countries were improving, but we need much more investment, he noted."I think the political framework is clear. Don't forget that whenever you invest in Portugal, you are investing in your gateway to European Union to Euro area..," the minister said.Silva, who is also incharge of the foreign investment and foreign trade, said that Portugal this year in June will hold the second United Nations Ocean Conference in Lisbon, which will be a very important activity to push global economy.Portugal is considered as the third most secure country in the world by the global peace index, he said, adding "we all know how security is important for investment"."Secondly, we are also characterised by a solid political stability. This is also a crucial variable."I think there is a lot to work on in terms of our bilateral cooperation. And of course, the role of the governments what we expect from the government is to facilitate this...how are we facilitating the improvement of economic relations between India and Portugal," Silva noted.He also said that at the highest political level there have been visits by the Prime Ministers of both India and Portugal, besides the ongoing visit of Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, while President Ram Nath Kovind is scheduled to visit Portugal next year."So, the development, the improvement of political relationships is occurring at the highest level. But its important that this is the consolidation of a framework for the improvement of people-to-people and business to business cooperation," he said.The two countries have already inked agreement in tourism sector and for startups."We have a joint programme with financing, in order to leverage capital, the ideas and the business models of young entrepreneurs in startups and of course, we are increasing our cooperation in other sectors -- public works, construction industry and real estate business."We have an interesting visa programme. If you invest in real estates, if you transfer capital for Portugal, if you invest in Portugal, you are allowed to get in a very quick way residence permits," the minister said."We are now trying to enlarge the scope of these programmes to the whole of the country because it was too concentrated in Lisbon," he said, adding ICT is one domain in which Portugal can learn a lot from India, but also can exchange rapidly with India. IAS BAL

Portugal pitches for enhancing bilateral trade with India

<ul><li>India and China have agreed to resolve the border dispute along <keyword id="9262087" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="the-line-of-actual-control">the Line of Actual Control</keyword> (LAC) through bilateral means. </li><li>The both sides held talks between senior level military officers on Saturday, June 6.</li><li>The negotiations took place at the Border Personnel Meeting Point in Maldo on the Chinese side of the Line of Actual Control in Chushul sector. </li></ul>Indian and Chinese military commanders agreed to peacefully resolve the <keyword id="9359015" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="current-border-issue">current border issue</keyword> in <keyword id="2572623" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="eastern-Ladakh">eastern Ladakh</keyword> in accordance with <keyword id="1103429" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="bilateral-pacts">bilateral pacts</keyword> as well as the agreement reached between leadership of the two countries, <keyword id="9284269" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="the-external-affairs-ministry">the External Affairs Ministry</keyword> said on Sunday. The two sides held high-level military talks on Saturday in an attempt to resolve the month-long bitter standoff in mountainous eastern Ladakh. "Both sides agreed to peacefully resolve the situation in the border areas in accordance with various bilateral agreements and keeping in view the agreement between the leaders that peace and tranquillity in the India-China border regions is essential for the overall development of bilateral relations, the MEA said in a brief statement. The military talks took place at the Border Personnel Meeting Point in Maldo on the Chinese side of the Line of Actual Control in Chushul sector. "Both sides also noted that this year marked the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries and agreed that an early resolution would contribute to the further development of the relationship," the MEA said. "Accordingly, the two sides will continue the military and diplomatic engagements to resolve the situation and to ensure peace and tranquillity in the border areas," it said. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/defense/news/china-is-a-bully-says-us-representative-on-india-china-border-issue/articleshow/76147159.cms">China is a ‘bully’ says US Representative on India-China border issue</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/defense/news/experts-believe-that-the-india-china-border-dispute-is-unlikely-to-turn-into-another-war-like-the-one-in-1962/articleshow/76128454.cms">India and China are testing each other at the Ladakh border— but it won’t be another war like in 1962, according to experts</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/defense/news/india-china-border-dispute-beijing-sends-more-troops/articleshow/76060995.cms">China is reportedly adding troops on the Ladakh border⁠ and India is matching up to it</a>

India-China border dispute to be resolved through talks, says MEA

<ul><li>US President <keyword id="6354484" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Donald-Trump">Donald Trump</keyword> finalised two arms deals worth $3 billion today with India today.</li><li>One is for six Apache attack helicopters worth $800 million and the other is for 24 MH-60 Romeo anti-submarine warfare helicopters worth $2.6 billion.</li><li>However, he made no mention of NASAMS-III, an anti-missile air defence for New Delhi.</li></ul>The US and India just signed three key pacts and a $3 billion arms deal. The Indian Armed Forces will be acquiring six Apache attack helicopters worth $800 million and 24 MH-60 Romeo anti-submarine warfare helicopters worth $2.6 billion from the US. "Earlier today we expanded our defence cooperation with agreements for India to purchase more than $3 billion of advanced American military equipment, including Apache and MH-60 <keyword id="8829778" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="romeo-helicopters">Romeo helicopters</keyword> — finest in the world. These will enhance our joint defence capabilities," said US President Donald Trump during a joint statement today afternoon. Defence has always been a significant part of the bilateral ties between India and the US. India has the most number of defence exercises with the US. According to Prime Minister <keyword id="6354477" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi">Narendra Modi</keyword>, this has led to "unprecedented growth" in the interoperability between the armed forces of the two nations. Modi also announced that the two countries will be using the same approach to cooperate on counter-terrorism and the <keyword id="667205" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="war-on-drugs">war on drugs</keyword>. "A decision has been made to hold agents of terror responsible for their actions. President Trump has also presented a way better our chances in the fight against the drugs and opioid crisis. Drug trafficking, narco-terrorism, and organised crime are grave concerns in today’s world. Earlier today, we have settled on a new mechanism to track such activity," said Modi. Things still left undecided It’s still uncertain whether India will buy NASAMS-III — an anti-missile air defence system that acts as an invisible shield over the country’s national capital, New Delhi. In the past, India has expressed concerns over its high cost. There is also uncertainty whether the new US system will be able to communicate with the systems that are already in place including India’s own Akash. "The increasing defence and security ties between the US and India are an integral part of the strategic partnership between the two countries." Sources told <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-us-to-outline-pacific-plan-today/articleshow/74293928.cms">ET</a> a new Indian Ocean Cooperation and Training exercise — based on the Southeast Asia Cooperation and Training (SEACAT) exercise — may also be announced. India is a market and the US wants to strike a bargain Between 2013 to 2017, arms imports from the US to India grew by over 550% according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (<a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/indias-arms-imports-from-us-up-by-550-report/article23166097.ece">SIPRI</a>). India was one of the top five military spenders in 2018 and the US recognises it as a big market. The Trump administration continues to heavily promote the sale of defence systems to India. Today too, Trump made it clear that the US makes the best weapons in the world. "We make the greatest weapons ever made: planes, missiles, rockets, ships. We make the best. And we're dealing now with India. But this includes advanced air defence systems and armed and unarmed aerial vehicles," he said. Neelam Deo, the director and co-founder of <a href="https://www.gatewayhouse.in/trumps-visit/">Gateway House</a>, believes India needs the technology. The armed forces are in dire need of modernisation that the domestic arms industry isn’t able to keep up. However, more arms deals aren’t necessarily the ideal solution for the domestic defence industry. Instead, it would benefit the Indian market more if the US could share its expertise instead for India to build more arms technology indigenously. The Indo-US relationship is also integral to the concept of the Indo-Pacific. The quadrilateral grouping of US, Japan, India and Australia hit a new high last year when it was upgraded to a ministerial-level last year. See also: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/news/narendra-modi-and-president-donald-trump-india-visit-joint-conference-detailed-transcript/articleshow/74298096.cms">Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump announce 'comprehensive global strategic partnership' in a joint conference</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/from-army-helicopters-to-trade-deal-donald-trumps-holding-out-carrots-for-india/articleshow/74286418.cms">From army helicopters to trade deal — Donald Trump's holding out carrots for India</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/india/news/full-text-of-donald-trumps-speech-at-ahmedabads-motera-stadium/articleshow/74278783.cms">Namaste Trump: Full text of Donald Trump's speech at Ahmedabad's Motera stadium</a>

India's $3 billion defence deal with the US — everything we know so far

<ul><li>The United States is removing India from the <keyword id="4227126" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Generalised-System-of-Preferences">Generalised System of preferences</keyword> (GSP) list that recuses certain Indian exports from import duties.</li><li>Without trade benefits, India’s petrochemical industry with exports like organic chemicals and the automobile industry that largely exports vehicle parts, will bear the brunt of the proclamation. </li><li>India is still optimistic that the situation is only temporary and will soon be resolved.</li></ul>Donald Trump, the US President, announced that they will rescind India’s preferential trade status, on Saturday. The proclamation published by the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-modify-list-beneficiary-developing-countries-trade-act-1974-2/">White House</a> will come into effect on June 5 and the decision will have a heavy bearing on many industries in India who were thus far sheltered by the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP). Being on the GSP, allows 3,000 products to enter the US market duty-free for countries who have been designated as beneficiaries of the US trade preference programme. India’s <a href="http://pib.nic.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1573061">Commerce Ministry</a>, on the other hand, is optimistic that both nations can work together to resolve any issues in a ‘mutually beneficial manner’. 
 
 
 <div type="ExtQuote" text="In any relationship, in particular in the area of economic ties, there are ongoing issues which get resolved mutually from time to time." auname="Indian Commerce Ministry’s statement"></div>







 Stones, bones and metal cones 
 
 
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 The largest beneficiary of GSP’s exemptions was the petrochemical sector exporting organic chemicals, which is a raw material. Other primary sector industries that will have the bear the impact of customs duties are stone, sand, cement, wood, glass and plastic. Other exports, like vehicle parts and furniture, fall into the intermediary category. In both cases, shelling out import duties will increase the price of the products in the US market undercutting their competitiveness. So it’s not just that they will have to pay more in order to access the US market, but might also see falling demand. India should be a little more worried than the US In 2018, the GSP was responsible for <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF10384.pdf">exempting</a> more than $6 billion worth of goods from import duties according to the Congressional Research Service (CRS). In 2017, GSP waived off customs for $5.6 billion worth of exports from India on 1,937 products. 
 
 <div type="ExtQuote" text="India, as part of our bilateral trade discussions, offered resolution on significant U.S. requests in an effort to find a mutually acceptable way forward. It is unfortunate that this did not find acceptance by the U.S." auname="Indian Commerce Ministry’s statement"></div>





 The US is India’s top trading partner <a href="http://www.worldstopexports.com/indias-top-import-partners/">accounting</a> for 16% of India’s total exports. India, on the other hand, only accounts for 2.1% of US imports. The stark difference paints a worrisome picture where the absence of the GSP will have a greater impact on Indian industries than companies in the US. CRS notes that the Trump administration view bilateral trade balances as an ‘indicator’ of the health of any trading relationship. Since there’s a trade deficit between US and India, Trump has criticised the South Asian country for a wide range of ‘unfair’ trading practices — his personal pet peeve being the high customs duty imposed on the import of Harley Davidson motorcycles. India, on the other hand, points out that while there is a trade deficit between the two countries, it reduced considerably in 2018.

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