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It is a momentous day for the country as we finally enter the vote-counting phase of the <keyword id="20181062" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="2024-Lok-Sabha-election" source="keywords">2024 Lok Sabha election</keyword> process on June 4. The 80-day, seven-phase-long process has been marred with a wide range of issues ranging from weather turmoil to vote tampering and reelections. As the final leg of counting concludes in a few hours, here’s what the vote tallying process looks like, and what is likely to happen after after the final results are announced. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Vote counting" comment="subhead" text="Vote counting"><keyword id="389062" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="vote-counting" source="Orion">Vote counting</keyword></cmsannotation> While the election process takes place in several stages, the vote tallying process is carried out simultaneously in all of the country’s 543 constituencies, with typically one counting centre in each. The tallying is done by a ‘Returning Officer’ and their assistants — officials appointed by the <keyword id="19895876" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Election-Commission-of-India" source="keywords">Election Commission of India</keyword> — in several rounds, or ‘leads’. This year, the counting process began at 8 AM IST on June 4, and is expected to carry on till beyond the afternoon. It will start with the tallying of postal ballots — ballot papers distributed to some categories of people — followed by the <keyword id="21930663" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="EVM-count" source="keywords">EVM count</keyword>. Periodically, the results of the ongoing count are announced to the media and then televised, helping the nation learn of the current political trend. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="The counting process for the Lok Sabha Election" comment="subhead" text="The counting process for the Lok Sabha Election">The counting process for the Lok Sabha Election</cmsannotation> Under Rule 54 A of the Conduct of Elections Rules 1961, the process for counting votes starts with postal ballots at the Returning Officer's (RO) table. Thirty minutes into postal ballot counting, Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) votes can be counted, or immediately if no postal ballots are present. Counting officials must ensure that the EVM's Control Unit (CU) seal is intact and that the total votes match Form 17C before counting. Results from the CU are recorded in Part-II of Form 17C, and verified by the counting supervisor, micro observer, and candidate agents. If the CU's display fails, <keyword id="20991106" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="VVPAT-slips" source="keywords">VVPAT slips</keyword> are counted post-CU counting. Results for each CU are documented and signed in Form 17C, which is then sent for compiling the final result in Form 20. VVPAT slip counting starts after CU votes are counted, with mandatory verification of VVPAT slips from five random polling stations per constituency. If the victory margin is less than the rejected postal ballots, those ballots are re-verified before declaring the result. In case of a tie, the winner is determined by a draw of lots. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Results are announced" comment="subhead" text="Results are announced">Results are announced</cmsannotation> The outcome for each constituency is announced as soon as counting concludes. As per <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>’s counting system, the candidate with the highest number of votes will win for a particular constituency, regardless of whether they are able to manage a majority. These results are generally televised throughout the day. After the <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election-commission" source="keywords">Election Commission</keyword> of India (ECI) has tallied all 64 crore votes that were cast this year, the constitutional body will announce the results for all 543 seats. Subsequently, if the winning party of the alliance has secured at least 272 seats, the institution’s president will call upon the leader of the winning party to form a government for the next five-year term. If no group is able to achieve a clear majority, political parties may form coalitions to reach the 272 magic number. If all negotiations fail and a “minority government” cannot be formed by the largest party, the President of India may dissolve the Lok Sabha (lower house of Parliament) and announce fresh elections. The next Lok Sabha must be announced before the current term ends on June 16. Most exit polls have indicated another landslide victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, with a third term for Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword>. However, early trends suggest that the Congress-led INDIA bloc is performing far better than expected. Results are expected to be clearer by the afternoon.

What will happen after the election commission finishes counting all Lok Sabha votes?

New Delhi [India], June 4 (ANI): The mammoth exercise to count votes polled for the Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 elections will begin at 8 am on Tuesday, with trends and results following shortly thereafter. Results of the <keyword id="6372146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Assembly-elections" source="Orion">Assembly elections</keyword> in Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh were held simultaneously with voting for the 543-member Lok Sabha. Results of 175 Assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh and 147 Assembly constituencies in Odisha and results of bypolls in 25 Assembly constituencies will also be declared today. Here're the LIVE results: <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Infographic"><cdata><![CDATA[]]></cdata></div> Strict security has been put in place for the smooth conduct of counting of votes for over 8,000 candidates in this general elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek a third consecutive term in government, while the Congress-led opposition aims to unseat them. Most <keyword id="43771" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="Orion">exit polls</keyword> have predicted a return of PM Modi to power, a development which will make him the first Prime Minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to secure a third successive term in power, Meanwhile, a delegation of Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc leaders met with the Election Commission of India urging it to ensure that postal ballots are counted and their results declared before the outcome of the EVMs is announced. Earlier, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar had said that a "very robust system" has been put in place. "There are around 10.5 lakh booths. Each booth will have 14 tables. There are observers and micro-observers. Nearly, 70-80 lakh people are involved in the process," he said. The national capital is all set to witness the battle. With tight security arrangements in place, Delhi is well-prepared to watch the results of the 2024 <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-Elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword>. Around 70 companies of the security forces will be deployed at all seven counting centres across the national capital as part of the elaborate security arrangements made by the Delhi Police for today. Delhi traffic police issued a fresh advisory ahead of the counting of votes scheduled for Tuesday, listing key roads where traffic restrictions and diversions will start from 5 am onwards to ensure smooth vehicular movement. Prime Minister Modi's hometown, Gujarat, is also preparing for the vote-counting day as security forces rehearse and perform drills for the effortless conduct of D-day. Exit polls have predicted the return of the BJP to power. Various exit polls have given the BJP more than 64 seats in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is poised for a hat-trick win in Lok Sabha polls with a massive majority. Exit polls were predicted on Saturday and indicated that the ruling party at the Centre would improve its performance in several states ruled by other parties. A few exit polls predicted that the BJP-led NDA could reach the goal of "400 paar" stated by BJP leaders in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls. The exit polls predicted that the ruling BJP-led NDA is poised to improve its performance over its 2019 record when it won 352 seats. Two polls predicted the BJP would also improve its numbers from the 303 seats it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2019 elections, NDA wrested 353 seats, of which the BJP won 303 alone. The Opposition's UPA got only 93 seats of which the Congress got 52. The Lok Sabha elections were conducted in seven phases- on April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1. The counting trends and results, as per data entered by RO/ARO for AC/PC will be available on the ECI website as well as on the Voter Helpline App, both iOS and Android Mobile Apps, according to the ECI. The Voter Helpline App can be downloaded from the Google Play Store or Apple Play Store. Users can use the available filter to find out the winning/leading or trailing candidate details, along with the constituency-wise or State-wise results from the Voter Helpline App. The local display of the trends and results by the CEOs/ROs/DEOs may also be done through the Digital Display Panels, it said.

Lok Sabha elections 2024 results: Mammoth vote-counting exercise set to begin at 8 am, amid high security

The <keyword id="19895876" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Election-Commission-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Election Commission of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Election Commission of India">Election Commission of India</keyword> (ECI) has officially announced the schedules for the upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, setting the stage for crucial state elections next month. Here’s what voters in these states can expect: <h2>Maharashtra: Single-phase voting on November 20</h2>Maharashtra will head to the polls in a single phase on November 20, with vote counting scheduled for November 23. This election will see a high-stakes contest between two major coalitions: the <keyword id="19924537" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Maha-Vikas-Aghadi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Maha Vikas Aghadi" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Maha Vikas Aghadi">Maha Vikas Aghadi</keyword> (MVA) and the <keyword id="21555670" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Maha-Yuti-Alliance" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Maha Yuti Alliance" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Maha Yuti Alliance">Maha Yuti Alliance</keyword>. The MVA consists of <keyword id="19905331" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Uddhav-Thackeray" source="keywords">Uddhav Thackeray</keyword>'s Shiv Sena (UBT), the <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword>, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) under Sharad Pawar. Meanwhile, the Maha Yuti Alliance brings together the <keyword id="19931558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bharatiya-Janata-Party" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bharatiya Janata Party" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bharatiya Janata Party">Bharatiya Janata Party</keyword> (BJP), Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde, and the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP. This intense battle for control over the 288-seat Maharashtra Assembly follows the end of the current term on November 26. The model code of conduct has come into immediate effect in Maharashtra, guiding political parties on appropriate campaigning practices and ensuring fair elections. <h2>Jharkhand: Two-phase voting on November 13 and 20</h2>In Jharkhand, voting will occur in two phases: the first on November 13 and the second on November 20. The results will be declared on November 23, alongside Maharashtra’s. This election focuses on the 81-seat Assembly, with a fierce competition expected between the ruling <keyword id="20028356" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jharkhand-Mukti-Morcha" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Jharkhand Mukti Morcha" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Jharkhand Mukti Morcha">Jharkhand Mukti Morcha</keyword> (JMM)-Congress alliance and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which includes the BJP, All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), and Janata Dal (United). Jharkhand’s current Assembly term expires on January 5, 2025. The elections will feature 29,562 polling stations across urban and rural areas to accommodate the state’s 2.6 crore registered voters. This diverse electorate includes 66.84 lakh young voters and 11.84 lakh first-time voters, with special arrangements for 3.67 lakh persons with disabilities. <h2>Pre-election preparations</h2>The ECI’s preparations for the elections began in September, with teams visiting both states to assess readiness. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar, alongside Election Commissioners Gyanesh Kumar and Sukhbir Singh Sandhu, met with local officials, district collectors, and political representatives to evaluate logistical arrangements and security measures. In Maharashtra, the Maha Yuti Alliance and the MVA have been ramping up their efforts to secure <keyword id="23060079" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="voter-support" source="keywords">voter support</keyword> in what is expected to be a dramatic electoral showdown. In Jharkhand, the ruling JMM, which is part of the INDIA bloc, is eyeing another term despite recent controversies surrounding Chief Minister Hemant Soren, who faced legal challenges earlier this year. The JMM-Congress-RJD alliance remains strong, as the party is expected to contest all 81 seats in the Assembly. (With inputs from agencies)

ECI Announces election schedules for Maharashtra and Jharkhand; both states to vote in November

Citing the Conduct of <keyword id="19895095" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election" source="keywords">Election</keyword> Rules, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar on Monday said the <keyword id="21922459" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="count" source="keywords">count</keyword> of <keyword id="20105752" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="postal-ballots" source="keywords">postal ballots</keyword> will start first across all counting centres and asserted that there was "no doubt about it". Responding to questions at a press conference here, he said after half-an-hour of the start of the postal ballot count, the counting of votes recorded in the electronic voting machines will commence. A delegation of the opposition parties had on Sunday met the Commission to demand that postal ballot count should start first and the results of postal ballots should be announced first. "Rules clearly state (Rule 54A) that postal ballot count will start first. On all centres in the country it will start first, no doubt about it. After half-an-hour we start the <keyword id="20041623" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="EVM" source="keywords">EVM</keyword> count. So, there are three countings which are happening simultaneously - it happened in the 2019 elections, it happened in all the assembly polls held thereafter. It happened yesterday also in case of Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim assembly (vote count). We can't change anything mid course. Why can't we change, because it is compliant with the rules," he said. He said the postal ballot count and then the EVM count and finally the marching of VVPT slips with EVM results will continue. In majority of the booths, the number of postal ballot is less. It will automatically end first, he pointed out. Since 2019, VVPAT (paper-trail machine) slips from five randomly selected polling stations per assembly constituency (or segment in cases of <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> seats) are matched with the EVM count for greater transparency.

Count of postal ballots will commence first: CEC

The counting of votes for <keyword id="65591" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="mizoram" source="Orion">Mizoram</keyword> Assembly polls began on Monday morning amid elaborate security arrangements in all 11 districts of the state. Additional Chief Electoral Officer H. Lianzela said that initially, postal ballots are being counted and then, the counting of votes polled through the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) would be taken up. Over 4,000 officials including women are engaged in the counting process. These officials are posted at 40 counting halls under 13 centres in 11 districts to count the votes, the official told IANS. Director General of Police, Anil Shukla said that adequate security measures have been taken for the smooth conduct of the counting process. Adequate contingents of Central Armed Police Forces and Mizoram Armed Police have been deployed across the state to maintain law and order. More than 80% of the 8.57 lakh voters exercised their franchise to decide the electoral fate of 174 candidates, including 16 women. The ruling <keyword id="297846" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="mizo-national-front" source="Orion">Mizo National Front</keyword> (MNF), the main Opposition Zoram People's Movement (<keyword id="746547" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="zpm" source="Orion">ZPM</keyword>) and the Congress have fielded candidates from all 40 seats while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is contesting on four seats. The BJP has fielded candidates on 23 seats with a special focus on linguistic minority inhabited areas, especially where the Reang and Chakma tribal communities are in reasonable numbers in the voters' list. Besides them, 27 independent candidates are also in the fray. The counting of votes was earlier scheduled on Sunday in the Christian-majority state (87%) but after repeated appeals by all political parties, NGOs, Civil Society Organisations, churches, youth and student bodies including the influential Young Mizo Association (<keyword id="549549" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="yma" source="Orion">YMA</keyword>), the Election Commission of India (ECI) rescheduled the counting to Monday. Polling for the 40-member Mizoram assembly was held on November 7.

Counting of votes begins for Mizoram Assembly elections

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Markets are moving on early US election results that favor Donald Trump.</li><li>US Treasury yields and the dollar are rising, with futures and cryptocurrencies also gaining.</li></ul>Markets are turning to the Trump trade on election night as betting odds move in favor of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump.While the election is far too early to call, online betting sites, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election">PredictIt</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024">Polymarket,</a> show Trump ahead in the race for the top job.This turn in sentiment supported the so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/donald-trump-trade-rally-betting-markets-kamala-harris-bitcoin-djt-2024-10">Trump trade</a>, which is predicated on corporate tax cuts and significant deficit spending, as well as hawkish trade and foreign policy, Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at <a target="_blank" href="http://Capital.com">Capital.com,</a> said in a note on election night."Deeper deficit spending implies stronger US growth, higher corporate profits (juiced by tax cuts), higher levels of debt, greater Treasury issuance, and marginally higher inflation," wrote Rodda."This dynamic draws investors into equities, especially 'old' or 'real' economy companies in the industrials, financials, materials and energy sectors, with the Dollar rising because of higher rates and upward pressure on yields from higher inflationary pressures and debt issuance," he added.US Treasury yields rose across the board on Tuesday night as investors view a second Trump presidential term as <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*4j037*_ga*MTM0MjM1NDU5My4xNjg1MTUzMTcw*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDg1ODYyOS4xNDM0LjEuMTczMDg1OTIxMC42MC4wLjA.">an inflationary event.</a> Trump has pledged to impose <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-tax-proposal-inflation-interest-rates-outlooks-predictions-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">sweeping tariffs on imports</a>, which would stem currency outflow and drive up inflation and interest rates.The benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years">10-year Treasury yield</a> climbed about 14 basis points to about 4.4315% as of 10:26 p.m. ET. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-2-years">two-year yield</a> gained 7 basis points to 4.2699%.Bets on higher interest rates sent the US dollar higher. The <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">US Dollar Index,</a> which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was trading 1.43% higher.The dollar gained 1.5% against the Japanese yen, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-jpy">USD/JPY</a> currency pair at 153.9. Meanwhile, the greenback was 1.5% higher against the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-eur">euro</a> and 3% higher against the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-mxn">Mexican peso.</a>Meanwhile, US futures moved higher on increasing prospects of a Trump win. Supporters of Trump's proposed tax and regulatory policies view them as pro-business moves that would boost corporate profits and deal activity.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/s&amp;p-500-futures">S&amp;P 500 futures</a> were up 1.25% higher, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/dow-futures">Dow Jones Industrial Average futures</a> were up 1.2%. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/nasdaq-100-futures">Nasdaq 100 futures</a> gained 1.2%.Cryptocurrencies are also gaining, with Bitcoin up 6.8%. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">endorsed digital assets</a> in recent years, and some investors are buying the asset as an inflation hedge.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/djt-stock">Trump Media and Technology Group</a> shares rallied 10.4% in after-hours trade after reporting third-quarter earnings, which initially sent shares down. The social media company, which trades under Trump's initials, reported an operating loss of $23.7 million and a net loss of $19.2 million. But it has no debt and a balance of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments of $673 million as of September 30 — sharply higher than in the second quarter."Markets are very thin and skittish, DJT exceptionally so," Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told CNN.Rodda wrote that even though the Trump trade is playing out hours after the polls closed, it's still too early for confident calls."Ultimately, the counting is only just starting and a clear result is some way from being found. While some states have already been called by the media, most swing states have either just closed the polls and have just started tabulating votes, or are still open," he added.

The Trump trade is taking off on election night

<ul class="summary-list"><li>High prices helped Trump get elected. Economists say his proposals could also be inflationary.</li><li>Lower taxes, new tariffs, and deportations are seen by some as driving inflation and higher rates.</li></ul>A key sticking point for the 73,479,065 Americans (and counting) who voted for President-elect Donald Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-won-election-high-prices-cost-of-living-unemployment-2024-11">was inflation</a>.Many people tired of high prices on everything from cars to gas to eggs and milk ended up voting with their wallets. Some of the states that saw the biggest swings towards Trump were ones where real <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-won-election-high-prices-cost-of-living-unemployment-2024-11">wages had declined</a>, giving people less spending power to fend off rising prices.However, if Trump follows through with his campaign promises, some economists say it is likely that his second term will result in the type of inflation increase that helped him secure the White House.While the extent to which the new regime is inflationary depends on how many proposals actually get executed, a consensus is building that the more heavy-handed versions of Trump's agenda would lead to higher prices.It's a notion the Trump camp has pushed back against. In August, on the campaign trail, the president-elect said his proposals would not influence US prices are swore to push them lower.In the week leading up to the election, Taylor Rogers — a Republican National Committee spokesperson — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">told BI in a statement</a> that, if elected, Trump would "once again cut taxes and unleash American energy to lower prices on groceries and other goods."<h2 id="192b47c8-9f61-4858-a383-70b2e3a515cc">Inflationary promises</h2>The main Trump proposals viewed as inflationary are: sweeping tariffs on imports, mass deportation of immigrants, and lower taxes.Trump has proposed a universal tariff of as much as 20% and as high as 60% for goods from China.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-won-election-high-prices-cost-of-living-unemployment-2024-11">According to the US Census Bureau</a> broad tariffs would impact the price of automobiles, drugs, food and beverages, furniture, and household appliances, and an <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/tpc-trump-tariffs-would-raise-household-taxes-and-slow-imports">analysis</a> by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center said that Trump's tariff proposals would decrease post-tax incomes by an average of $1,800 in 2025.Tariffs are paid for by the companies importing goods into the country, rather than by the companies exporting their products to the US.Typically, US companies simply pass the tariff costs to consumers via higher prices, and company executives <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-threats-world-ceos-thoughts-trade-2024-11">are already signaling this to investors.</a>"If we get tariffs, we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer," Philip Daniele, CEO of AutoZone, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">said on a pre-election earnings call.</a>"We're set to raise prices," Timothy Boyle, CEO of the retailer Columbia Sportswear, told the Washington Post about potential tariffs in October. "It's going to be very, very difficult to keep products affordable for Americans," he added.Trump's promise to deport of millions of immigrants <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/immigration-jobs-economic-impact-inflation-job-market-wages-paul-krugman-2024-7">is also seen as likely to boost inflation by shocking the labor market,</a> especially in the sectors with large immigrant workforces like construction and agriculture.A shortage of labor in these areas of the economy is expected to force companies to raise wages to attract new workers, which could then in turn raise prices to make up for the higher cost.The CEO of the National Association of Homebuilders<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-deportation-immigration-policy-election-housing-home-prices-construction-costs-2024-10"> told Business Insider</a> before the election that mass deportations would ultimately lead to higher home prices and a slower pace of building."It's pretty clear to me, all else being equal, you reduce the labor supply very abruptly, and you're going to get an increase in inflation because of an increase in prices," economist Wendy Edelberg <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-mass-deportation-immigraiton-plan-federal-reserve-inflation-2024-9">told Business Insider in September.</a> "That's relatively straightforward."Finally, lower tax rates are typically viewed as stimulative for the economy and could unleash a wave of spending on goods and services by both consumers and businesses, with prices rising in the face of higher demand.<h2 id="ad348b73-8929-4bf9-b3cc-6702834bdfdc">Possible inflation fallout</h2>If Trump delivers on all of these proposals, then a rebound in inflation is all but guaranteed, economists have said."We're talking about an inflationary shock that is bigger than almost anything else that you could do through federal policy," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393333138">left-leaning</a> Nobel laureate <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-economy-outlook-inflation-job-market-election-paul-krugman-2024-10">Paul Krugman said</a> of the tariff plan.A new bout of inflation would put the Federal Reserve on notice to start hiking interest rates again, which would further strain consumers via higher borrowing costs.The bond market is already signaling this. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/surging-treasury-yields-after-trump-win-show-borrowers-may-not-get-relief-2024-11">Yields have surged since Trump's election victory</a> and market-based inflation expectations have jumped to the highest level since April, as measured by the five-year breakeven inflation rate."It reflects legitimate worries about the path of government spending and what that could mean for inflation," Ned Davis Research economist Veneta Dimitrova said in a note on Friday."With the economy already operating slightly above potential, additional government stimulus at this stage of the business cycle will likely be inflationary," Dimitrova added.It's worth noting that the tariffs Trump enacted in his first term did not result in a significant inflation increase. The difference this time around — and the reason inflation forecasts are more stark — is how much deeper and more wide-reaching Trump's tariff proposals are for not just China but also the rest of the world.

Economists say Trump could give Americans the very thing they voted against

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Kamala Harris is projected to have won a potentially critical Electoral College vote in Nebraska.</li><li>Thanks to Nebraska's unusual way of awarding votes, she has carried a district containing Omaha.</li></ul>Vice President Kamala Harris' increasingly perilous <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">path to the White House</a> is still alive thanks to her projected win of Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, carrying an area that was once reliably Republican.With over 80% of the expected vote in, Fox News and The New York Times have called the district and its Electoral College vote for Harris.Democrats needed some good news after former President Donald Trump's early projected win in North Carolina. He is also leading in Georgia and Arizona, though it is too early to project those states.Nebraska and Maine are the only two states to award some of their Electoral College votes by congressional district. By winning the Omaha area, Harris would probably become president by sweeping the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">"blue wall" states</a> of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin even if she were to lose every other battleground state. Provided there are no unexpected upsets, she would win with 270 electoral votes to 268.The bad news for Harris is that Trump is leading in all three blue wall states as votes continue to be counted.Trump and his allies tried to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nebraska-2nd-electoral-college-vote-omaha-harris-mcdonnell-2024-9">pressure Nebraska lawmakers</a> to change the state law just months before Election Day, seeking to avoid this exact scenario. Gov. Jim Pillen, a Republican, had promised to call a special session to push through the change, but Republicans in the officially nonpartisan state legislature were unable to overcome a likely filibuster. If the race were to end in an Electoral College tie, it would be turned over to the Republican-controlled US House of Representatives to decide. Only twice in US history, most recently in 1825, have lawmakers settled the election.Republicans easily won the statewide popular vote, but Democrats for the third time in five presidential cycles have now been able to win just enough votes in and around Nebraska's largest city. Barack Obama narrowly won the district in 2008, and Biden beat Trump by nearly 7 percentage points in 2020. Democrats have gleefully labeled the area "the Blue Dot," and yard signs with such an image were sprinkled around the city synonymous with the billionaire investor <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-kamala-harris-endorsement-politics-donald-trump-president-election-2024-10">Warren Buffett</a>.Neither Harris nor Trump campaigned in the city, though both of their running mates — Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-vice-president-tim-walz-career-facts-2024-8">Tim Walz</a> of Minnesota and Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-vice-president-jd-vance-career-facts-2024-7">JD Vance</a> of Ohio — campaigned in the Omaha area. Walz is a Nebraska native.

Harris' chances are still alive after she won a key vote in Nebraska

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Polls close Tuesday night, but it's unclear when we'll know the results of the 2024 election.</li><li>Some states' election laws allow for some votes to be counted before polls close; others do not.</li></ul>After nearly two years of campaigning, two assassination attempts, and an unprecedented decision by the sitting president to drop out of the race, the 2024 US presidential election is coming to an end.Polls have closed in some places, and results will begin rolling in soon.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-sun-belt-polls-2024-11">final week</a> of the race between Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> and former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> was all about outrage, with each candidate trying to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-outrage-garbage-mark-cuban-puerto-rico-2024-11">amplify controversial comments</a> from the other's camp to try to shake up a race in which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">polls remained incredibly tight</a> to the end.The election is expected to come down to just seven states that polling has indicated either candidate could win: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Each state has different election laws, and some are expected to take longer than others to count the vote. If the race is as tight as polling suggests, there's a very good chance we won't know who won the election until sometime after Tuesday night.Here's the latest — and what to watch for.<h2 id="15729b0a-41c1-4bdf-969a-d43a46391721">When we'll know the results in each state</h2>In some states, we may know the results pretty quickly. In others, counting may take days. Poll closing times listed below are in Eastern Time.7 p.m. — Polls close in Georgia, where a winner could be declared by late Tuesday night. Though the state took days to process mail-in ballots in 2020, a new law allowed election officials to begin tabulating those votes Tuesday morning, speeding up the process.7:30 p.m. — Polls close in North Carolina, which has historically counted votes quickly. A winner could be declared Tuesday night.8 p.m. — Polls close in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Michigan is expected to count ballots relatively quickly and could announce a result Tuesday night or early Wednesday.But the Pennsylvania count is expected to take days. That's because the election is expected to be so close in the Keystone State and because a big chunk of the electorate votes by mail, and officials can't begin to count those votes until polls close.In 2020, most news outlets didn't call Pennsylvania until Saturday — at which point Joe Biden became president-elect.9 p.m. — Polls close in Wisconsin and Arizona. We may not know the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/22/politics/vote-counting-delays-election-states/index.html">results in Wisconsin</a> until Wednesday, a state election official told CNN in September, in part because of the amount of time it takes to count absentee ballots in the heavily Democratic city of Milwaukee.Like Pennsylvania, Arizona's vote count is expected to take days, given that most of the electorate is expected to vote by mail. Initial results probably won't be available until 10 p.m.10 p.m. — Polls close in Nevada, which could also take days to count, given that most of the state is expected to vote by mail.<h2 id="7329bb1b-3a45-4204-887d-e708e935be38">How to read the Electoral College math</h2>The US uses the Electoral College to elect a president. Each state gets a set number of votes that correlates with its population — if a state has two US senators and three House members, it has five electoral votes.The winner must get at least 270 electoral votes — a majority of the 538 total. In the vast majority of states, either Harris or Trump is widely expected to win, leaving the campaigns to fight over the 93 electoral votes up for grabs in the seven battleground states.If Harris wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan on Tuesday night or early Wednesday, she will have a projected 273 electoral votes — enough to make her the winner.If Trump sweeps those states, he'll have a projected 266 electoral votes — not enough to be declared the winner but it would him in a very strong position to win.Harris' easiest path to victory would be to win the traditional "blue wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — a result that should put her at 270 electoral votes. She has generally polled better in these states than the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.For Trump, one path to victory would involve holding on to all or most of the Sun Belt states while also winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.

Election results are coming in soon. Here's where things stand.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>In hours, polls will close in the 2024 presidential election.</li><li>Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have fought over Pennsylvania, but both candidates have multiple paths.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-election-predictions-professional-investor-survey-2024-11">Election Day 2024</a> has arrived. Billions have been spent pushing voters to back specific candidates and causes.Vice President Kamala Harris upended the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">presidential race</a> with her late entry. Pre-election polling showed her race against former President Donald Trump could be the closest in history. The margins are so tight that a potential polling error could result in an unexpected blowout.More than 78 million Americans have already voted early, either in person or by mail. Final turnout may dip slightly from the historic mark set in 2020, but a pre-election Gallup poll showed voter <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-republicans-voter-enthusiasm-swing-state-polls-2024-10">enthusiasm above 2008 levels.</a>It's not just control of the White House. Congress is up for grabs, too. Republicans are favored to retake the Senate, thanks to key races occurring on favorable turf. The House is tougher to project. Republicans could net a few seats, or Democrats could flip the chamber with an equally narrow majority. Just like in 2018, New York and California, hardly competitive in the presidential race, loom large.Here's what we're watching.<h2 id="dbd2c6b7-9d67-4564-b035-dd49e1633343">How Trump or Harris will win the White House</h2>Harris' easiest path to victory remains what was once President Biden's last resort: holding Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District — the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">so-called "Blue Wall" </a>and the "Blue Dot." Barring any unexpected upsets, Harris would then win the Electoral College 270 to 268.Trump's easiest route to victory also goes through Pennsylvania, the most important swing state. Winning Pennsylvania would likely allow Trump to retake the White House by holding North Carolina and flipping back Georgia. In that scenario, he could even sustain the blow of losing an Electoral College vote in Nebraska, which pre-election polling shows is very likely.While so much focus is deservedly on Pennsylvania, Trump spent significant time in the race's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-campaign-schedule-final-days-election-north-carolina-pennsylvania-2024-11">final days in North Carolina</a>, even though only two Democrats, Presidents Obama and Carter, have won the Tar Heel state since 1976.<h2 id="33a8541d-7186-485c-9f39-513897c661cf">These are the bellwether counties to watch.</h2>Bucks County, Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro recently called this Philadelphia metro-area county, "the swingiest of all swing counties in the swingiest of all swing states." Hillary Clinton won Bucks by less than 3,000 votes in 2016 and lost both the state and the White House. President Biden won it by just over 17,000 votes four years ago en route to taking his native turf by a roughly 80,000 vote margin. If Trump wants to retake Pennsylvania, doing well here is key.Waukesha County, Wisconsin: Once traditional GOP ground, this Milwaukee-suburban county area has moved closer to Democrats-like suburbs nationwide in the Trump era. Trump routed Clinton here in 2016, but his margin decreased by just over 7 points four years later, as he lost the state by a roughly 21,000-vote margin to Biden.Maricopa County, Arizona: In 2020, the home to Phoenix, the fastest-growing county in the nation, swung to Democrats by just over 2 points. President Biden went on to win the state by just roughly 10,000 votes. In contrast, then-Gov. Doug Ducey, a popular Republican, won the county by almost 14 points two yeas prior.<h2 id="563abb9a-9c88-4a29-ab86-330b0cf1d83b">Here's what early exit polls could tell us:</h2>Exit polls will provide the first major at who turned out to vote early in the evening after the embargo lifts at 5 pm Eastern Time, though specific data on who may win a state is held back until polls close in that area.Though exit polls can offer valuable data, especially about demographics, they are often misleading and are not predictive of an eventual winner.Mark Blumenthal, a contractor at YouGov and previous head of election polling at SurveyMonkey, told Business Insider he will interested in how the vote ends up breaking down by gender and race, particularly given the speculation that Democrats are losing ground among Black and Latino voters.Overall, though, he cautions against making too much of exit polls on election night itself. "As a means of trying to see who is going to win, between the time when they start being released, which is usually 5 pm Eastern tomorrow, and when we get a final count, my advice is to ignore them," Blumenthal said. "Utterly, completely ignore them. Go for a walk. Go take a yoga class, watch something on Netflix, because they're not designed to tell us who's going to be the winner of the presidential election."<h2 id="db285587-345b-4cbd-b4cf-b803271c2358">Republicans are favored to retake control of the Senate.</h2>Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin is trying to hang onto this open senate seat that her fellow Democrats have held for 20 years. Former Congressman Mike Rogers, once a Trump critic, hopes the former president will push him over the top. Rogers and his allies have zeroed in on Slotkin's support for the White House's fuel efficiency standards that do not mandate electric vehicle production but would likely result in the auto industry producing more EVs. Pre-election polling: Slotin was up by roughly 3 points, per RealClearPolitics' averageOhio: Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, has managed to survive past challenges in the former swing state that now tilts toward Republicans. His challenger, Cleveland Businessman Bernie Moreno, has hammered Brown over immigration. According to AdImpact, the Ohio Senate race is the most expensive non-presidential race ever. Pre-election polling: Moreno was up by less than 1 point, per RealClearPolitics' average.Montana: Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, is facing an even tougher challenge in Montana, a state Trump carried by over 16 points in 2020. Republicans worked hard to elevate <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tim-sheehy-montana-senate-gunshot-wound-questions-tester-2024-11">Tim Sheehy</a>, a wealthy aerospace executive, even though expectations of a bruising primary did not come to pass. Like other Republican hopefuls, Sheehy has done everything possible to tie Harris to Tester. Pre-election polling: Sheehy was up by 6.5 points, per RealClearPolitics' average.<h2 id="55c3c49d-49e9-4d7b-b097-24845da6f374">The House is much closer.</h2>Arizona 1st District: Rep. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/david-schweikert-profile-trump-realignment-arizona-economic-interests-abortion-2024-10">David Schweikert</a>, a Republican, has represented Scottsdale and its surrounding areas in Congress for almost 14 years. Gov. Katie Hobbs and Sen. Mark Kelly easily won the area, one of the most educated districts still held by a Republican. His challenger, former state Rep. Amish Shah, has highlighted his centrist record and is hoping Trump's unpopularity will sink Schweikert.New York 19th: Rep. Marc Molinaro was one of four Republicans who flipped a Democratic-held seat during the 2018 midterms in New York, a margin that proved vital to the GOP retaking the chamber. Democrats are hoping Josh Riley, a lawyer and policy analyst, can win in a rematch two years later with the help of Harris at the top of the ticket. More than $35 million has been spent on the race, making it the most expensive House contest in the nation.California 22nd: Rep. David Valadao is one of 18 House Republicans representing a district President Biden won in 2020. Valadao is also one of the only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the January 6 Capitol riot. Former state Rep. Rudy Salas is like many Democrats in key races, hoping to win in a rematch after falling short two years ago.

What to watch for on Election Day as Harris and Trump face off

In response to requests from multiple political parties, the <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election-commission" source="keywords">Election Commission</keyword> (EC) has decided to postpone upcoming by-elections in <keyword id="19894922" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="uttar-pradesh" source="keywords">Uttar Pradesh</keyword>, Kerala, and Punjab. Originally scheduled for November 13, the polls will now take place on November 20. This rescheduling aims to accommodate local festivities and boost voter turnout. The EC’s decision follows appeals from parties like the <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="congress" source="keywords">Congress</keyword> (INC), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and <keyword id="19984283" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rashtriya-lok-dal" source="keywords">Rashtriya Lok Dal</keyword> (RLD), which expressed concerns over potential low turnout due to regional celebrations during the original polling date. The Congress highlighted that in Kerala's 56-Palakkad Assembly Constituency, many residents will participate in the Kalpathi Ratholsavam festival, a major event set to run from November 13 to 15. Similarly, representatives from the BJP, BSP, and RLD raised concerns in Uttar Pradesh, where people begin travelling several days in advance for <keyword id="22124352" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kartik-purnima" source="keywords">Kartik Purnima</keyword>, an important festival observed in the state. In Punjab, the Congress pointed out that celebrations for the 555th Prakash Parv of Sri Guru Nanak Dev Ji are scheduled for November 15, with religious observances starting on November 13. These festivals are expected to draw significant portions of the electorate, particularly in rural areas. The EC has previously demonstrated flexibility to prioritise voter participation by adjusting poll dates to avoid clashes with religious or cultural events. In recent years, polling dates were modified for various elections, including the <keyword id="23790298" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="punjab-state-elections" source="keywords">Punjab State Elections</keyword> 2022 during the Shri Guru Ravidas Jayanti, and the <keyword id="23790297" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="uttar-pradesh-assembly-elections" source="keywords">Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections</keyword> 2012 for <keyword id="23790296" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="barawafat" source="keywords">Barawafat</keyword>. Similar changes were made in Manipur, Mizoram, and Rajasthan to respect community schedules and increase voter convenience. With this adjustment, one assembly constituency in Kerala, four in Punjab, and nine in Uttar Pradesh will now hold their by-polls on November 20, while the dates for vote counting and final poll completion remain set for November 23 and 25, respectively. (With inputs from agencies)

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